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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-15 16:00:21 fib1618: good day
2015-09-15 16:00:28 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-15 16:00:58 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-09-15 16:01:05 fib1618: doing fine...
2015-09-15 16:01:15 fib1618: I understand we had a breakout today?
2015-09-15 16:01:49 thespookyone: not for me, but others say so...
2015-09-15 16:02:07 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-15 16:02:33 thespookyone: I'll be quite interested in your take.. [smile]
2015-09-15 16:03:49 fib1618: I'll be quite interested in the market's take!
2015-09-15 16:03:58 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-15 16:08:01 fib1618: OK...let's see what we have to work with
2015-09-15 16:08:45 fib1618: after snapping back toward the zero line on Monday
2015-09-15 16:08:59 fib1618: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today
2015-09-15 16:09:14 fib1618: and in this effort
2015-09-15 16:09:30 fib1618: took out the highs of last Tuesday
2015-09-15 16:09:45 fib1618: we now have a nice series of bottoms above bottoms in play here
2015-09-15 16:10:17 fib1618: as we settled today with a reading of +39
2015-09-15 16:10:36 fib1618: which is one point above the highs seen right before the market turned tail and fell out of bed in late August
2015-09-15 16:11:08 fib1618: this thrust also pushed the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM higher as well
2015-09-15 16:11:49 fib1618: as we attempt to close our very large gap resistance area seen on the 21 day close up chart
2015-09-15 16:12:04 fib1618: problem with all of this though
2015-09-15 16:12:23 fib1618: that we see that the CO components are not confirming the MCO's strength today
2015-09-15 16:12:30 fib1618: as the 5% remains below its zero line
2015-09-15 16:12:56 fib1618: while the 10% can only be classified as having fully snapped back to its zero line with today's reading of +4
2015-09-15 16:13:13 fib1618: so for the buyers to show they mean business
2015-09-15 16:13:28 fib1618: we would need to see immediate follow through to today's action
2015-09-15 16:13:46 fib1618: or we'll likely retrace all of what was accomplished today
2015-09-15 16:14:07 fib1618: and do so just as quickly as we did today
2015-09-15 16:14:46 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-09-15 16:14:59 fib1618: and here too we got a nice bounce off this MCO's zero line today
2015-09-15 16:15:04 fib1618: but unlike the CO MCO
2015-09-15 16:15:12 fib1618: we did NOT move to a higher high
2015-09-15 16:15:41 fib1618: and this is the usual non confirmation that we see during typical bear market rally's that has no substance to speak of
2015-09-15 16:15:55 fib1618: that of being short and swift
2015-09-15 16:16:20 fib1618: and once the short covering runs out of steam
2015-09-15 16:16:48 fib1618: the vacuum is filled with as much, if not more, volatility
2015-09-15 16:17:07 fib1618: looking at the NYSE components
2015-09-15 16:17:36 fib1618: and one has to look at this as a cautionary pattern
2015-09-15 16:17:51 fib1618: where both the 10% and 5% Trends remain fully below their zero lines
2015-09-15 16:18:17 fib1618: this would also suggest that the interest rate sensitive issues remain weak here
2015-09-15 16:18:47 fib1618: and the market isn't likely to go anywhere without this important basket of issues
2015-09-15 16:18:55 fib1618: looking at the NYA price pattern
2015-09-15 16:19:39 fib1618: and we see that we did close above the declining tops line that formed our symmetrical triangle
2015-09-15 16:19:50 fib1618: so putting this altogether so far
2015-09-15 16:20:03 fib1618: this is likely an Elliott C wave of some kind
2015-09-15 16:20:07 fib1618: of a larger zig zag
2015-09-15 16:20:13 fib1618: that of counter trend
2015-09-15 16:20:26 fib1618: or...
2015-09-15 16:20:36 fib1618: it's a false breakout from the triangle
2015-09-15 16:20:42 fib1618: and if that's the case
2015-09-15 16:20:44 fib1618: watch out below
2015-09-15 16:20:56 fib1618: as the shorts have now covered
2015-09-15 16:21:06 fib1618: and the front month "out of the money" put option buyers are toast
2015-09-15 16:21:37 fib1618: and now we can clean out any sell stops that might be out there
2015-09-15 16:21:49 fib1618: looks dangerous...so far
2015-09-15 16:21:58 fib1618: another thing that was rather puzzling today
2015-09-15 16:21:59 thespookyone: yes sir
2015-09-15 16:22:27 fib1618: was that the intraday TICK was actually declining during the initial run up until after lunch time
2015-09-15 16:22:42 fib1618: and then we finally saw some tepid buying moving in
2015-09-15 16:22:49 thespookyone: had my eyes glued on that, felt odd
2015-09-15 16:22:56 fib1618: it was odd
2015-09-15 16:23:01 fib1618: and rather ominous
2015-09-15 16:23:21 fib1618: indecision patterns are always tough
2015-09-15 16:24:06 fib1618: this is why it's always better to be patient and allow the market forces to do their thing instead of getting cute and leading off
2015-09-15 16:24:28 fib1618: but it was enough of a good day where many will now turn more bullish against the crash in August
2015-09-15 16:24:50 fib1618: and that complacency could be a death spiral for the market
2015-09-15 16:24:57 fib1618: big heavy sigh
2015-09-15 16:25:03 fib1618: but let's not lose our heads here
2015-09-15 16:25:12 fib1618: let's see how the rest of indices look
2015-09-15 16:25:28 fib1618: the NASDAQ is doing fine
2015-09-15 16:25:40 fib1618: with the NASDAQ breadth MCO showing some nice strength now
2015-09-15 16:25:57 fib1618: as it moved above the highs of 9/8
2015-09-15 16:26:25 fib1618: and this has caused our right angle triangle to morph into a leading diagonal to the upside
2015-09-15 16:26:47 fib1618: hard to see if we broke above the measuring gap or not though
2015-09-15 16:27:21 fib1618: but if we take ruler to monitor
2015-09-15 16:27:47 fib1618: and connect the declining tops of early August and extend the line out
2015-09-15 16:28:06 fib1618: it looks as though that we haven't broke above this line of resistance as yet
2015-09-15 16:28:24 fib1618: nope...not even close
2015-09-15 16:28:34 fib1618: and as we know all too well
2015-09-15 16:28:56 fib1618: for prices to break either above or below an intermediate term trendline in prices
2015-09-15 16:29:08 fib1618: the MCO's must move beyond the 50 levels to do so
2015-09-15 16:29:32 fib1618: today we closed at a +40
2015-09-15 16:29:43 fib1618: so a little more work is needed there
2015-09-15 16:29:47 fib1618: moving to the NDX
2015-09-15 16:30:08 fib1618: and here we did move above the +50 level today
2015-09-15 16:30:17 fib1618: with a reading of +62
2015-09-15 16:30:19 fib1618: not bad
2015-09-15 16:30:41 fib1618: we also see that we had a break above the zero line for the 10% Trend as well
2015-09-15 16:30:49 fib1618: though the 5% remains at its zero line
2015-09-15 16:30:51 fib1618: but still
2015-09-15 16:31:02 fib1618: not a bad situation right now
2015-09-15 16:31:33 fib1618: here it looks like that the measuring gap has not been closed
2015-09-15 16:31:41 fib1618: so until this takes place
2015-09-15 16:31:54 fib1618: it's probably better to err on the side of caution
2015-09-15 16:31:56 fib1618: after all
2015-09-15 16:32:02 fib1618: if this is a bear market
2015-09-15 16:32:07 fib1618: like all market sequences of different time periods
2015-09-15 16:32:34 fib1618: this one will be different from others past as far as cadence is concerned
2015-09-15 16:33:21 fib1618: another small problem here with the NDX is that we have yet to move into the MCSUM gap resistance zone
2015-09-15 16:33:31 fib1618: and until we close this gap area
2015-09-15 16:33:44 fib1618: the market will continue to be vulnerable to problems
2015-09-15 16:38:06 fib1618: we saw another good zero line test today and moved to higher highs in the SPX breadth MCO
2015-09-15 16:38:30 fib1618: along with a definitive breakout of our symmetrical triangle configuration
2015-09-15 16:39:04 thespookyone: then, you consider this a second breakout?
2015-09-15 16:39:12 fib1618: the intraday highs of last week is near term resistance for prices
2015-09-15 16:39:23 fib1618: hard to deny that it isn't
2015-09-15 16:39:40 fib1618: as you have a higher high in prices with a higher high in the MCO
2015-09-15 16:39:47 fib1618: that spells confirmation
2015-09-15 16:40:13 fib1618: you also have a nice rounding bottom formation in the SPX breadth MCSUM working now
2015-09-15 16:40:29 fib1618: but the MCO components still say corrective sequence
2015-09-15 16:40:32 fib1618: so..
2015-09-15 16:40:48 fib1618: Elliott wise.. a C wave from the 8/24 lows
2015-09-15 16:40:54 fib1618: now
2015-09-15 16:41:14 fib1618: this opens the door to something even bigger happening on a bearish level
2015-09-15 16:41:27 fib1618: as it's very rare that we see triangles in the second position
2015-09-15 16:41:32 fib1618: unless...it's a series
2015-09-15 16:41:41 fib1618: which it could be...I guess
2015-09-15 16:41:49 fib1618: but if this is a 3 of 3 job to the upside
2015-09-15 16:42:03 fib1618: one would think that the components would be in sync with the MCO
2015-09-15 16:42:05 fib1618: AND
2015-09-15 16:42:16 fib1618: the NYSE breadth MCO would be making new highs as well
2015-09-15 16:42:26 fib1618: so...the better idea...at least for now
2015-09-15 16:42:35 fib1618: is that we're working on a triangle
2015-09-15 16:42:44 fib1618: that was wave B
2015-09-15 16:42:59 fib1618: it was one of the options about 2 weeks ago
2015-09-15 16:43:11 fib1618: but it looked less likely last Thursday
2015-09-15 16:43:14 fib1618: live and learn
2015-09-15 16:43:22 fib1618: sentiment has been bullish though
2015-09-15 16:43:25 fib1618: as well as
2015-09-15 16:43:32 fib1618: the high TRIN numbers we've had for a while
2015-09-15 16:44:03 fib1618: but in order to make this thing "go"
2015-09-15 16:44:20 fib1618: we're going to need to see the SPX MCO move above the 8/17 highs
2015-09-15 16:44:24 fib1618: if not
2015-09-15 16:44:30 fib1618: this is just a bear market rally
2015-09-15 16:44:48 thespookyone: that's what I was trying to say about the breakout-we may still be constructing the triangle
2015-09-15 16:44:59 fib1618: it's been a while since we've seen of these suckers...that's for sure
2015-09-15 16:45:06 fib1618: well..
2015-09-15 16:45:26 fib1618: we've been tracing out a triangle for the last three weeks
2015-09-15 16:45:35 fib1618: here...let me link a chart for you
2015-09-15 16:45:48 fib1618: give me two minutes - brb
2015-09-15 16:45:59 thespookyone: thx
2015-09-15 16:48:09 fib1618: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat15/triangle091515.png
2015-09-15 16:48:28 fib1618: pretty definitive, right?
2015-09-15 16:48:47 fib1618: you can see how we hugged the line for the last couple of days
2015-09-15 16:49:00 fib1618: and thrusted above it today
2015-09-15 16:49:28 fib1618: and we're above the price cap area as well
2015-09-15 16:49:49 fib1618: if it's wave C
2015-09-15 16:50:02 fib1618: it should equal the length of wave A
2015-09-15 16:50:05 fib1618: let me calc that
2015-09-15 16:50:58 fib1618: that would be about 2081
2015-09-15 16:50:59 fib1618: but
2015-09-15 16:51:09 fib1618: if we .618 x wave A it would be...
2015-09-15 16:51:29 fib1618: 2034
2015-09-15 16:51:48 fib1618: and the 200 day EMA is at 2045 right now
2015-09-15 16:52:00 fib1618: frankly
2015-09-15 16:52:08 fib1618: at this point
2015-09-15 16:52:21 fib1618: it's something that needs our respect to what it may imply
2015-09-15 16:52:43 fib1618: but I'm more in the "show me" side of things...at least through the SPX data
2015-09-15 16:52:47 fib1618: let's see how the OEX did
2015-09-15 16:52:50 thespookyone: Thanks for the line chart. My triangle was drawn on a 60 minute, it's not near as pretty
2015-09-15 16:52:56 fib1618: higher high
2015-09-15 16:53:03 fib1618: but we closed with a reading of +49
2015-09-15 16:53:09 fib1618: still below +50
2015-09-15 16:53:42 fib1618: it is interesting to note
2015-09-15 16:54:03 fib1618: that we did close today at 1978 on the SPX
2015-09-15 16:54:09 fib1618: and the 20 day EMA is at 1976
2015-09-15 16:54:25 fib1618: so until we close solidly above this level
2015-09-15 16:54:29 fib1618: it's just an EMA test
2015-09-15 16:54:35 fib1618: the problem though
2015-09-15 16:54:51 fib1618: is that we're getting higher high readings in the MCO with today's close
2015-09-15 16:55:11 fib1618: and you can't just let that roll off our shoulders as something that isn't important
2015-09-15 16:55:12 fib1618: again
2015-09-15 16:55:20 fib1618: major rallies begin with short covering
2015-09-15 16:55:33 fib1618: what's needed here is solid follow through with fresh money
2015-09-15 16:55:47 fib1618: and then we'll have a some substance to work with
2015-09-15 16:56:08 fib1618: higher high as well with the Dow breadth MCO
2015-09-15 16:56:16 fib1618: and you can see we have texture in the pattern
2015-09-15 16:56:22 fib1618: bottoms above bottoms
2015-09-15 16:56:25 fib1618: tops above tops
2015-09-15 16:56:45 fib1618: plus...as we talked about on Thursday
2015-09-15 16:57:01 fib1618: the SPX was trying to hold horizontal support at the MCSUM -500 level
2015-09-15 16:57:12 fib1618: while the OEX was doing its thing at the -750 level
2015-09-15 16:57:17 fib1618: and the Dow at the -1000 level
2015-09-15 16:57:20 fib1618: and now...
2015-09-15 16:57:24 fib1618: with today's higher highs
2015-09-15 16:57:38 fib1618: we have nice solid changes in direction to work with
2015-09-15 16:58:05 fib1618: just like the analogy of a cruise ship as it makes a sweeping motion from one direction to the other
2015-09-15 16:58:34 fib1618: we have a +52 in the MID breadth MCO today
2015-09-15 16:58:46 fib1618: so any follow through to the upside there would be a bullish event
2015-09-15 16:59:12 fib1618: even the SML breadth MCO saw new highs today
2015-09-15 16:59:19 fib1618: and with these new highs
2015-09-15 16:59:43 fib1618: it's not likely that we're just going to fail here with the kind of textural foundation we left behind in doing so
2015-09-15 17:00:02 fib1618: true...could be a blow off
2015-09-15 17:00:07 fib1618: but to be candid
2015-09-15 17:00:15 fib1618: if this is a true bear market
2015-09-15 17:00:27 fib1618: it's way too early to really know what kind of animal we're really dealing with
2015-09-15 17:00:39 fib1618: so you just can't say buy
2015-09-15 17:00:55 fib1618: and you just can't say that we're about to get our clock rung either
2015-09-15 17:00:59 fib1618: again
2015-09-15 17:01:12 fib1618: like I mentioned before
2015-09-15 17:01:31 fib1618: you got to think the market has already discounted the worse that could happen on Thursday
2015-09-15 17:01:47 thespookyone: I see all of it, but the 5's and 10's bother me-I am used to deferring to them when there is a "conflict"
2015-09-15 17:02:00 fib1618: and now we're moving forward...like the statement will tend to be neutral moving forward (?)
2015-09-15 17:02:07 fib1618: I agree
2015-09-15 17:02:12 fib1618: we're still corrective
2015-09-15 17:02:23 fib1618: but if this is a bear market rally
2015-09-15 17:02:39 fib1618: you know from all the years of your experience that these traps can be vicious
2015-09-15 17:02:47 thespookyone: oh yea!
2015-09-15 17:03:00 fib1618: let's allow things to move forward..
2015-09-15 17:03:02 fib1618: heck
2015-09-15 17:03:12 fib1618: the BETS was on a sell last Saturday
2015-09-15 17:03:18 fib1618: and after 11 years of data
2015-09-15 17:03:53 fib1618: we know, historically, that the markets can not trend in the opposite direction until this indicator gets back to at least a neutral reading between +20 and -20
2015-09-15 17:04:24 fib1618: but I'll bet you a large lunch at a drive through of your choice that is was just a bear market rally
2015-09-15 17:04:35 fib1618: we have the FED weight being lifted
2015-09-15 17:04:53 fib1618: we have all those put options and shorts being lifted beginning on Thursday
2015-09-15 17:05:05 fib1618: and if you're short
2015-09-15 17:05:21 fib1618: you've had to wait a long time for vindication
2015-09-15 17:05:37 fib1618: and indecision patterns do a great job to eat up both your time and your patience
2015-09-15 17:05:47 thespookyone: by my devices, there is a ton of money short here, none mine, LOL
2015-09-15 17:05:54 fib1618: again...the intraday TICK was miserable through 3/4 of the rally today
2015-09-15 17:06:19 fib1618: and only firmed up as we moved into the last 2 hours
2015-09-15 17:06:30 thespookyone: yep
2015-09-15 17:06:35 fib1618: that's not something in which can be classified as technically bullish
2015-09-15 17:06:39 fib1618: but on a daily level
2015-09-15 17:06:43 fib1618: we also know
2015-09-15 17:07:01 fib1618: that both the cumulative TICK and TICKQ are back in bullish configurations again
2015-09-15 17:07:32 fib1618: and this very sensitive indicator usually provides the insight for upcoming turns before the rest of the market notices
2015-09-15 17:07:48 fib1618: let me check the BETS number...one sec
2015-09-15 17:07:54 thespookyone: with all the indicators in their current position, fairly hard chop is to be expected, no?
2015-09-15 17:08:20 fib1618: absolutely no movement today in ARCA today
2015-09-15 17:08:58 fib1618: -55
2015-09-15 17:09:02 fib1618: so improving
2015-09-15 17:09:06 fib1618: wait...could be -50 if we include the assumption that the TICKQ is in a bullish config
2015-09-15 17:09:48 fib1618: but the Canadian issues showed nothing today
2015-09-15 17:10:14 fib1618: and more importantly
2015-09-15 17:10:24 fib1618: both the NYUD and NYAD lines did NOT move to new highs
2015-09-15 17:10:36 fib1618: so that isn't confirming today's strength
2015-09-15 17:10:48 fib1618: so...everything is pointing to a bear market rally
2015-09-15 17:11:00 fib1618: and NOT a tradable bottom
2015-09-15 17:11:09 fib1618: we still have some backing and filling yet to do
2015-09-15 17:11:22 fib1618: and what the higher highs in the MCO could be indicating is...
2015-09-15 17:11:29 fib1618: we were at the zero line on Monday
2015-09-15 17:11:40 fib1618: meaning that we were balanced between buyers and sellers
2015-09-15 17:11:47 fib1618: and that one side was about to take control
2015-09-15 17:11:52 fib1618: and today...it was the bulls turn
2015-09-15 17:12:18 fib1618: but we haven't seen anything yet where the bulls were being backed by fresh buying
2015-09-15 17:12:37 thespookyone: at this point, fwiw, I'm working with a C wave target around 2035-when I saw your .618 was 2034, I got goosebumps
2015-09-15 17:12:50 fib1618: great
2015-09-15 17:13:03 fib1618: so we have something to work with then...until it stops working
2015-09-15 17:13:12 thespookyone: I think so
2015-09-15 17:13:14 fib1618: which is always the case in this business
2015-09-15 17:13:21 fib1618: again
2015-09-15 17:13:30 fib1618: we really don't care if we move up or down
2015-09-15 17:13:33 fib1618: so far
2015-09-15 17:13:48 fib1618: the idea of a break to the downside was the wrong interpretation
2015-09-15 17:13:55 fib1618: but going back to earlier in the chat
2015-09-15 17:14:17 fib1618: without the raw A/D data confirming the upside breakout in triangles
2015-09-15 17:14:37 fib1618: along with the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also non confirming
2015-09-15 17:15:04 fib1618: there's nothing really saying that today wasn't just a rogue wave
2015-09-15 17:15:48 fib1618: moving to the TM breadth MCO
2015-09-15 17:16:16 fib1618: and we remain below the 9/8 highs
2015-09-15 17:16:33 fib1618: and both of the components are still below their zero lines as well
2015-09-15 17:16:38 fib1618: so...
2015-09-15 17:17:04 fib1618: we'll call today a miss as far as what our blueprint expected as a breakout to the downside
2015-09-15 17:17:12 fib1618: but looking at the internals
2015-09-15 17:17:18 fib1618: we have a very mixed picture
2015-09-15 17:17:41 fib1618: where we have several index chart subsets showing nice strength here
2015-09-15 17:17:59 fib1618: but the broader based NYSE and Total Market remain unconvinced
2015-09-15 17:18:12 fib1618: and that's not how uptrends begin
2015-09-15 17:18:23 fib1618: let's see how the volume side did
2015-09-15 17:18:50 fib1618: we did not get a higher high in the CO NYSE volume MCO
2015-09-15 17:18:56 fib1618: that's not a good sign
2015-09-15 17:19:20 fib1618: but we did get a higher high in the NYSE Composite volume MCO
2015-09-15 17:19:27 fib1618: so we'll call that a wash between the two
2015-09-15 17:19:40 fib1618: though a tip of the cap toward the longs
2015-09-15 17:20:17 fib1618: but in both cases
2015-09-15 17:20:27 fib1618: the volume components remain below their zero lines
2015-09-15 17:21:08 fib1618: now the NASDAQ volume MCO is echoing the strength in breadth
2015-09-15 17:21:21 fib1618: so that could be enough to see further upside snapback action in prices there
2015-09-15 17:21:51 fib1618: maybe back to what was the rising bottoms line connecting the April and July lows?
2015-09-15 17:22:17 fib1618: interesting to note on the daily price chart
2015-09-15 17:22:27 fib1618: that the NASDAQ closed above the 20 day EMA today
2015-09-15 17:22:34 fib1618: but just below the 200 day EMA
2015-09-15 17:22:53 fib1618: so we may be in for some neat term EMA TAG action
2015-09-15 17:23:13 fib1618: with the 50 day EMA just above the 200 day EMA
2015-09-15 17:23:35 fib1618: so it's going to take quite of bit of buying pressure here to break above all three of these EMA's
2015-09-15 17:23:53 fib1618: and with the broader market saying "oh hum"
2015-09-15 17:24:03 fib1618: we might not have too much more upside here to work with
2015-09-15 17:24:31 fib1618: good strength in the NDX volume MCO
2015-09-15 17:24:44 fib1618: as the NDX volume MCSUM has now made it to the -500 level
2015-09-15 17:25:07 fib1618: still...not enough to see more than 2 consecutive days of rally right now
2015-09-15 17:25:16 fib1618: so maybe some churning on Wednesday
2015-09-15 17:25:38 fib1618: and then use any news on Thursday to shake the market of its weak hands (?)
2015-09-15 17:26:14 fib1618: the NDX actually found back and fill support at the 20 day EMA before moving above the 200 day EMA today
2015-09-15 17:26:21 fib1618: with the 50 day EMA just above current levels
2015-09-15 17:26:38 fib1618: yes...the EMA's are being squeezed now
2015-09-15 17:26:48 fib1618: so were about to see a very big move in prices fairly soon
2015-09-15 17:27:16 fib1618: could be part of the whipsaw moves we've seen for the last several weeks
2015-09-15 17:27:19 fib1618: but one thing's for sure
2015-09-15 17:27:47 fib1618: we will continue to see a high amount of volatility for another couple of weeks as things get sorted
2015-09-15 17:28:12 fib1618: good confirmation as well with the SPX volume MCO
2015-09-15 17:28:49 fib1618: notice also that it was enough to push the SPX volume MCSUM above the -600 level
2015-09-15 17:29:40 fib1618: so we're still "oversold" enough to where we're not likely to see a rhythm build here
2015-09-15 17:29:49 fib1618: which again suggests a bear market rally
2015-09-15 17:30:25 fib1618: nice continuation thrusts to the upside in the OEX and Dow volume MCO's as well
2015-09-15 17:30:39 fib1618: so the large caps were seeing some love today
2015-09-15 17:30:52 fib1618: though much of it appears to be that of short covering
2015-09-15 17:31:16 fib1618: the MID volume MCO did not produce a higher high today
2015-09-15 17:31:49 fib1618: but it was enough for the MID volume MCSUM to move up above the August highs
2015-09-15 17:32:07 fib1618: but until we make higher highs in the MCO
2015-09-15 17:32:30 fib1618: it's not likely that we'll be able to get above natural resistance at the -500 level
2015-09-15 17:32:37 fib1618: ugh
2015-09-15 17:32:56 fib1618: well...the good news we got a zero line bounce in the SML volume MCO
2015-09-15 17:33:20 fib1618: the bad news is that it wasn't more than just courtesy move
2015-09-15 17:34:06 fib1618: and until we see a break above the 3 tops seen in the SML volume components at the zero line
2015-09-15 17:34:31 fib1618: rally's here are opportunities to take short positions
2015-09-15 17:34:54 fib1618: and then we get to the TM volume MCO
2015-09-15 17:35:00 fib1618: and here we saw higher highs
2015-09-15 17:35:12 fib1618: and volume is leading breadth to the upside
2015-09-15 17:35:16 fib1618: so...
2015-09-15 17:35:22 fib1618: we have a very mixed picture currently
2015-09-15 17:35:27 fib1618: from index to index
2015-09-15 17:35:35 fib1618: and within the indices themselves
2015-09-15 17:35:54 fib1618: everything so far points to a false breakout...a bear market rally
2015-09-15 17:36:07 fib1618: and if this is actually the case
2015-09-15 17:36:26 fib1618: we should see a resumption to lower price lows by the end of the week
2015-09-15 17:36:28 fib1618: more to the point
2015-09-15 17:36:45 fib1618: we shouldn't see much in the way of upside follow through on Wednesday
2015-09-15 17:37:08 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are doing
2015-09-15 17:37:45 fib1618: CVI's are climactic
2015-09-15 17:37:59 fib1618: so we should see a price reversal in the next two trading sessions
2015-09-15 17:38:14 fib1618: that melds well with the idea of a bear market rally, doesn't it?
2015-09-15 17:38:49 fib1618: STVO's have moved above their neutral readings of last Thursday
2015-09-15 17:39:03 fib1618: with the Dow and NDX now minimally "overbought"
2015-09-15 17:39:39 fib1618: and we'll call the VTO's still "oversold", but improving
2015-09-15 17:40:18 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .49
2015-09-15 17:40:33 fib1618: there's your short covering confirmation
2015-09-15 17:40:53 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2015-09-15 17:41:09 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .63
2015-09-15 17:41:20 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2015-09-15 17:41:33 fib1618: TM TRIN at .56
2015-09-15 17:41:42 fib1618: Open 10 at .97
2015-09-15 17:42:06 fib1618: so we'll go with a classic short covering rally for today
2015-09-15 17:42:22 fib1618: where the buyers will need to step in quickly in order to make this more than a one day affair
2015-09-15 17:43:02 fib1618: the large caps seem to be the place where money believes the worse maybe behind us
2015-09-15 17:43:25 fib1618: with the NASDAQ showing some good strength as well with a lot of help from the NDX basket of issues
2015-09-15 17:43:25 thespookyone: sure, they don't borrow as much, LOL
2015-09-15 17:44:22 fib1618: so no real forecast for Wednesday as we'll watch to see if today was just a "slight of hand" kind of day
2015-09-15 17:44:44 fib1618: with someone coming to peak around the curtain, pulling it back, and exposing the market for what it really is
2015-09-15 17:44:54 fib1618: we'll see how it goes
2015-09-15 17:44:58 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-15 17:45:09 thespookyone: your guess on rates?
2015-09-15 17:45:27 fib1618: there's going to be an increase
2015-09-15 17:45:35 thespookyone: ditto
2015-09-15 17:45:38 fib1618: it's going to be the statement that will be important
2015-09-15 17:45:49 fib1618: selfishly
2015-09-15 17:46:02 fib1618: I would love that they only raise the Discount rate
2015-09-15 17:46:09 thespookyone: sure!
2015-09-15 17:46:09 fib1618: but it's already at 3/4%
2015-09-15 17:46:26 dand64: What about the reaction to the increase?
2015-09-15 17:46:27 fib1618: making it more reasonable to raise the Fed Funds
2015-09-15 17:46:56 fib1618: but raising the Fed Funds and you'll see every money center bank immediately raise rates by a like amount
2015-09-15 17:47:09 fib1618: the reaction has already been discounted
2015-09-15 17:47:15 fib1618: probably the crash in august
2015-09-15 17:47:28 dand64: A shrug now then.
2015-09-15 17:47:33 fib1618: yes
2015-09-15 17:47:54 fib1618: it will be what they say about future increases that will likely move things as the market attempts to digest this "new" information
2015-09-15 17:47:58 thespookyone: going to take it's toll on small business, though, in a real world sense
2015-09-15 17:48:07 fib1618: you ain't kidding
2015-09-15 17:48:15 fib1618: we've had this discussion
2015-09-15 17:48:22 fib1618: no need to rehashing it
2015-09-15 17:48:26 thespookyone: nope
2015-09-15 17:48:35 fib1618: in fact
2015-09-15 17:48:37 fib1618: I heard today
2015-09-15 17:48:43 fib1618: thinking...when and who
2015-09-15 17:49:34 fib1618: but I think I heard today that someone warned vehemently that even a rise of a 1/4 point can have a significant impact on small business here in this US
2015-09-15 17:49:41 fib1618: pretty much our conversation of last week
2015-09-15 17:49:44 thespookyone: my friends small businesses are hurting pretty bad
2015-09-15 17:49:51 fib1618: everyone is
2015-09-15 17:49:55 fib1618: I'm telling you
2015-09-15 17:50:00 fib1618: it's not good out there right now
2015-09-15 17:50:05 thespookyone: no
2015-09-15 17:50:14 fib1618: I feel it well before the majority even senses it
2015-09-15 17:50:28 thespookyone: like clockwork..
2015-09-15 17:50:30 fib1618: but we're moving forward the best we can
2015-09-15 17:50:36 fib1618: well...if the last 30 days is any indication on what we should expect market wise 3 months from now
2015-09-15 17:51:05 fib1618: than it's going to be a bad December
2015-09-15 17:51:17 fib1618: and I mean...B A D
2015-09-15 17:51:19 thespookyone: what did the fall fashions look lie?
2015-09-15 17:51:25 thespookyone: like
2015-09-15 17:51:26 fib1618: we're now in spring
2015-09-15 17:51:58 fib1618: spring is showing a lot of oversized garments
2015-09-15 17:52:05 fib1618: some pastels
2015-09-15 17:52:27 fib1618: but they're on the muted side instead of that one would find with Easter colors (for example)
2015-09-15 17:52:41 fib1618: skirt lengths are moving lower
2015-09-15 17:52:47 thespookyone: ugh
2015-09-15 17:52:49 fib1618: which suggests a slow down is coming
2015-09-15 17:53:06 fib1618: to be candid
2015-09-15 17:53:16 fib1618: no one in the industry really knows what direction to take
2015-09-15 17:53:21 thespookyone: wow
2015-09-15 17:53:29 fib1618: we're seeing a lot of different experimental things
2015-09-15 17:53:49 fib1618: I'll keep an eye on it
2015-09-15 17:53:55 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-15 17:53:55 thespookyone: thx!
2015-09-15 17:54:47 fib1618: let me check the futures for fun
2015-09-15 17:55:20 fib1618: talk about whipsaw there...the futures last night were all over the place
2015-09-15 17:55:25 fib1618: we'll call it flat for now
2015-09-15 17:55:36 fib1618: up big...down big
2015-09-15 17:55:39 thespookyone: nights have been wild
2015-09-15 17:55:52 fib1618: and then firmed up at the opening
2015-09-15 17:55:59 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-09-15 17:56:03 fib1618: let's call it a night
2015-09-15 17:56:14 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-09-15 17:56:23 fib1618: and we'll see what the haps are on Thursday
2015-09-15 17:56:24 thespookyone: ditto
2015-09-15 17:56:27 fib1618: good night


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