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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-09-15 16:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Good day
2011-09-15 16:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-09-15 16:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-09-15 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me settle in and we'll get started
2011-09-15 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..here we go
2011-09-15 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to "oversold" levels last week
2011-09-15 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to power higher over the last couple of days
2011-09-15 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now taken out its recent highs
2011-09-15 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a good example of the bulls bellying up to the bar and making their convictions known
2011-09-15 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something of which we noted they needed to do on Tuesday or their near term effort would be lost
2011-09-15 16:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: luckily for the bulls, they got what they perceived as good news from overseas as far as the debt problems are concerned
2011-09-15 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and many shorts had to cover on this news
2011-09-15 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically speaking
2011-09-15 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the highs of late August are taken out
2011-09-15 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to move within the confines of a consolidation pattern
2011-09-15 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now we have something different
2011-09-15 16:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we now have a near term bullish bias to the pattern
2011-09-15 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of this occurring where the maximum amount of pain will take place for those with September put options tomorrow
2011-09-15 16:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: September futures went off the board at the close
2011-09-15 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so all we need now is for the rest of the witches to settle at Friday's close
2011-09-15 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that there is a lot of traders still shorting this market right now
2011-09-15 16:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we could now test the cash highs of the SPX at 1219
2011-09-15 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will need a bit more energy to move through this important area of pattern resistance
2011-09-15 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more ammunition for the bulls comes with the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM which also moved to higher highs today
2011-09-15 16:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will allow the MCSUM to move to the next area of natural resistance at the -500 level
2011-09-15 16:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-09-15 16:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have just barely moved to a cross over buy signal today
2011-09-15 16:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite data
2011-09-15 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see the NYSE breadth MCO moving above its early September highs
2011-09-15 16:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-09-15 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amplitude of the NYSE breadth MCSUM is lagging that of the common only data to the upside
2011-09-15 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally we would want to see the broadest basket of stocks leading the way to upside
2011-09-15 16:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this might a simple case of moving a bit too fast for the markets own good
2011-09-15 16:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this usually happens during times of short covering
2011-09-15 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with heavy amounts where many cover with "both hands"
2011-09-15 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy signal today on the NYSE breadth MCO components as well
2011-09-15 16:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the NYAD line for a moment
2011-09-15 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line powered through both its 19 day and 39 day EMA's today
2011-09-15 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still remains under the influence of its intermediate term declining tops line from the early July highs
2011-09-15 16:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be noted
2011-09-15 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYSE breadth MCSUM moved above its gap resistance zone today
2011-09-15 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears are losing quite a bit of control now
2011-09-15 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so
2011-09-15 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that unless something changes the direction of the current rate of money flow
2011-09-15 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a minimal amount of texture in the MCO's
2011-09-15 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that we have at least a important low behind us
2011-09-15 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the other hand
2011-09-15 16:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's still too many things still out of sync that would prepare for any future price advancing structure
2011-09-15 16:26:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't much care for looking for texture "after the fact"
2011-09-15 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we had texture all along
2011-09-15 16:26:37 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: can you expand on that, spook?
2011-09-15 16:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not enough of it
2011-09-15 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-15 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX data already moved to new highs on Tuesday
2011-09-15 16:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was up to the bulls to build on this on Wednesday or that it would deemed an "overbought" blow off of sorts
2011-09-15 16:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had bottoms above bottoms on many of the MCO charts
2011-09-15 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-09-15 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a difficult market to forecast as there is a high amount of emotion going on here
2011-09-15 16:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only that
2011-09-15 16:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have a lot of levers being pulled behind the scene on a historic level
2011-09-15 16:28:30 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I agree - it looks totally news driven - Greece, EU, drachma, lira
2011-09-15 16:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all news driven, yes
2011-09-15 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have stressed the point from the time in which the crash occurred that it wasn't a lack of liquidity that caused the crash
2011-09-15 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have plenty of that
2011-09-15 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we didn't have was conviction
2011-09-15 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trust
2011-09-15 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing that things were going to continue the way they have been
2011-09-15 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at everything here in the proper context
2011-09-15 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't really anything saying bear market here internally
2011-09-15 16:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NYAD line
2011-09-15 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still remaining above its rising bottoms line
2011-09-15 16:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the cumulative TICK and TICKQ of the last 2 weeks
2011-09-15 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both are back in bullish configurations
2011-09-15 16:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that...
2011-09-15 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once all is said and done at the close each day
2011-09-15 16:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was more buying than selling
2011-09-15 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can only occur during times of high liquidity
2011-09-15 16:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's have all promised us
2011-09-15 16:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2011-09-15 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that once this indigestion is behind us
2011-09-15 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect higher prices into the end of the year
2011-09-15 16:32:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my real concern is who is buying-and I doubt it to be new money-longer term, I have no issues with the Northbound trail
2011-09-15 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about many times how the market never likes the carry with the majority
2011-09-15 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter who's buying or selling
2011-09-15 16:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it IS
2011-09-15 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money knows no prejudice
2011-09-15 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it only knows what it likes...
2011-09-15 16:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it likes to make more money
2011-09-15 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently
2011-09-15 16:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are swamped with currency
2011-09-15 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has to be invested somewhere
2011-09-15 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2 weeks ago we looked at the US Bills, Notes and Bonds
2011-09-15 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 2 year and shorter time frames are all below .20%!
2011-09-15 16:34:19 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: and today 30-days were negative, at least pre-market
2011-09-15 16:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 3 month bill is literally at zero
2011-09-15 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will always search out areas of undervaluation
2011-09-15 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would we not agree that stocks are pretty much undervalued given tried and true fundamentals like PE ratios and book value?
2011-09-15 16:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as technicians
2011-09-15 16:35:33 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: 10.4  only depression causes lower low on mco's
2011-09-15 16:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we do is watch what money does with this same information and then follow it in
2011-09-15 16:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-09-15 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is "after the fact" a fair statement?
2011-09-15 16:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times was it mentioned that the bulls have a something to work with on Tuesday?
2011-09-15 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all they needed was follow through?
2011-09-15 16:36:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: in terms of texture, I believe so-I'd rather see it build WITH price
2011-09-15 16:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-09-15 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like everything else in this business
2011-09-15 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all have our own interpretation of what we should get or might get before we'll be "satisfied" that our expectation has been met
2011-09-15 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week when we moved to "oversold" MCO levels
2011-09-15 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had minimally met the expectation of what one would consider "texture" if we remained with a bottom above a bottom with the mid August lows
2011-09-15 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also
2011-09-15 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the MCO moved to lofty levels at the end of August
2011-09-15 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this changed the blueprint of what would be our expectation
2011-09-15 16:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-09-15 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Elliott count was changed
2011-09-15 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was no longer a fourth wave
2011-09-15 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far, that has been the correct interpretation
2011-09-15 16:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether or not the counter trend move was complete or not was our area of discussion
2011-09-15 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-09-15 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the last couple of days
2011-09-15 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did not have enough fuel to drive prices higher
2011-09-15 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to the point of testing the highs of SPX 1218
2011-09-15 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday though
2011-09-15 16:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did break above the 1175 level
2011-09-15 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2011-09-15 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at breadth plurality
2011-09-15 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did so without a high amount of ratio...I think it settled up 4:1 at the close
2011-09-15 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today?
2011-09-15 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little over 3:1
2011-09-15 16:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: honestly
2011-09-15 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not consistent to a reversal in the trend
2011-09-15 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but because of the math involved
2011-09-15 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is enough to change the direction of the trend of the EMA's from down to up
2011-09-15 16:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's all that's happened here
2011-09-15 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-09-15 16:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we moved above the 1180 level yesterday
2011-09-15 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with breadth plurality at 3:1
2011-09-15 16:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with OPEX coming up this week
2011-09-15 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also discussed the possibility on Tuesday of a ramp up to literally destroy those who bought out of the money September puts during the crash
2011-09-15 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a sure thing at the time
2011-09-15 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's been this extreme pessimism that has kept the price pattern from moving lower in any important way
2011-09-15 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NYSE Open 10
2011-09-15 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up to around 1.15 over the last week until yesterday
2011-09-15 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that makes it hard to sell off
2011-09-15 16:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the ISEE number today came in at 85
2011-09-15 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: traders are STILL trying to short at the top!
2011-09-15 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this just adds more fuel
2011-09-15 16:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know the drill Lew
2011-09-15 16:45:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have been in total agreement, and was only short individual issues into today-both of which got hammered
2011-09-15 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't have to explain it to you
2011-09-15 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you had stops?
2011-09-15 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you were playing hit and run?
2011-09-15 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right?
2011-09-15 16:45:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, short from yesterdays close NFLX, FSLR
2011-09-15 16:46:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, I'm out of both
2011-09-15 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the 5 largest economies on the planet decide to make a joint statement that they were going to support a currency...that's enough to scare me out of my shorts and watch for a while
2011-09-15 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as far as the two issues you mentioned
2011-09-15 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you were bearish on those for over a month
2011-09-15 16:46:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I would not have shorted an index, I believed as you that the Sept puts would NOT get paid
2011-09-15 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it all comes out in the end
2011-09-15 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they are now worthless
2011-09-15 16:47:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, I was
2011-09-15 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these same folks will now lick their wounds and hide
2011-09-15 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and think twice about trying to time the market again
2011-09-15 16:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when will they finally buy their next round of puts??
2011-09-15 16:47:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just waited for a spot on those two-it looked like yesterday
2011-09-15 16:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: come on everybody...let's say it together
2011-09-15 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AT
2011-09-15 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THE
2011-09-15 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BOTTOM!
2011-09-15 16:48:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I doubt they'll be short when we truly drop, LOL
2011-09-15 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course they won't
2011-09-15 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's remember back to the July highs for a moment
2011-09-15 16:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember how many staunch bears all of sudden became bullish?
2011-09-15 16:49:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and yep, I'll be hunting calls when they call for Armageddon at the bottom
2011-09-15 16:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from message boards to Richard Russell
2011-09-15 16:49:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it never changes , really, eh?
2011-09-15 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: come on
2011-09-15 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it never does
2011-09-15 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will do everything it can to make the majority WRONG
2011-09-15 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we set our stops
2011-09-15 16:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they're taken out
2011-09-15 16:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to believe in ourselves, and in our work, that there is reason for this
2011-09-15 16:50:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, experience is a handy thing in a market trading like this....old guys like us do OK
2011-09-15 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's certainly not an arbitrary event
2011-09-15 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember back to just after we had our sell signal on the MCO?
2011-09-15 16:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I said to everyone to embrace this and learn from it...and some in here questioned the call
2011-09-15 16:51:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: was a great heads up!
2011-09-15 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though it probably won't happen the very same way in the future
2011-09-15 16:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will have the experience now to know how to trade it
2011-09-15 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the 8/9 bottom?
2011-09-15 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember how we stressed the point of the slinky?
2011-09-15 16:52:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-09-15 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about Tuesday?
2011-09-15 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the apex of the symmetrical triangle?
2011-09-15 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is never any hindsight here
2011-09-15 16:52:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure do, had the charts up
2011-09-15 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we observe and create options
2011-09-15 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one thing doesn't work..then you change with the market
2011-09-15 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing about being wrong is...
2011-09-15 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know that you'll be right when it doesn't work
2011-09-15 16:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I hope that makes sense)
2011-09-15 16:53:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure does
2011-09-15 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we are in a declining price structure
2011-09-15 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's the use of finding indicators that continue to support this same structure?
2011-09-15 16:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: isn't more important to find indicators that begin tell us that this same declining structure is losing its bias?
2011-09-15 16:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: isn't that what we do with divergence techniques?
2011-09-15 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's the blurb I have in my signature
2011-09-15 16:55:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's always different?
2011-09-15 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "what we see depends mainly on what we look for?"
2011-09-15 16:56:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah, so true
2011-09-15 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's so important to be looking for reasons why the market can't continue to move in one direction
2011-09-15 16:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't want to verify what it's already doing
2011-09-15 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to know when it's likely to change
2011-09-15 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the goal of every technician
2011-09-15 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the change in trend
2011-09-15 16:57:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's my concern on texture-in a nutshell
2011-09-15 16:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-09-15 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I understand your concern
2011-09-15 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you don't matter
2011-09-15 16:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-15 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't matter
2011-09-15 16:57:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I won't front run it-but I see it isn't there
2011-09-15 16:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the market matters
2011-09-15 16:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll probably be right here
2011-09-15 16:58:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, that can be a reason to fail
2011-09-15 16:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is still really nothing here suggesting that we're in the beginning stages of a uptrend
2011-09-15 16:58:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed
2011-09-15 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only reason to fail is if you already have a bias
2011-09-15 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bias...no failure
2011-09-15 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the market do what it wants
2011-09-15 16:59:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you broke me of it-!
2011-09-15 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like it's so easy to lose money in the market
2011-09-15 16:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much harder to make it consistently
2011-09-15 16:59:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bias is costly
2011-09-15 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a business
2011-09-15 16:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have discussed this over and over again
2011-09-15 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it can't be repeated often enough
2011-09-15 17:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is your business
2011-09-15 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the time to be emotional
2011-09-15 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you find the things that make sense
2011-09-15 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that show consistency
2011-09-15 17:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you trade off of that
2011-09-15 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on YOUR time
2011-09-15 17:00:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely-well put
2011-09-15 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on YOUR basis
2011-09-15 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one should care about up or down
2011-09-15 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is an entry and an exit
2011-09-15 17:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a point from A to B
2011-09-15 17:01:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they let you trade both ways
2011-09-15 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we deviate
2011-09-15 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you unload
2011-09-15 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will otherwise eat you up, spit you out, and not care one bit
2011-09-15 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here's the bottom line
2011-09-15 17:02:09 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: amen
2011-09-15 17:02:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I was short $VIX till today-because of my belief in an overall rally
2011-09-15 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one in this room is going to right all the time
2011-09-15 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's impossible
2011-09-15 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're dealing with the human animal
2011-09-15 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the weather
2011-09-15 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are unpredictable
2011-09-15 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do tend to trend
2011-09-15 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-09-15 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a baseball player can get into the Hall of Fame by only hitting the baseball safely 30% of the time
2011-09-15 17:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to expect ourselves to hit a home run each and every time is just not doable
2011-09-15 17:04:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, looking at the strongest stocks, in the strongest sectors-it appeared they had something left North=I like how your approach is to that
2011-09-15 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good
2011-09-15 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you for that
2011-09-15 17:04:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it speaks
2011-09-15 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it whispers
2011-09-15 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our job is to listen
2011-09-15 17:04:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: i listen close, LOL
2011-09-15 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bias
2011-09-15 17:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no  notions
2011-09-15 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no emotion
2011-09-15 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the blueprint for the market after the 8/9 bottom?
2011-09-15 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a change in trend?
2011-09-15 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2011-09-15 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a continuation to the downside
2011-09-15 17:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2011-09-15 17:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pause in the decline?
2011-09-15 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-09-15 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the high amount of volatility as measured by the VIX
2011-09-15 17:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew it was going to be a roller coaster ride
2011-09-15 17:06:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: chop-I think we saw it pretty well
2011-09-15 17:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it still is
2011-09-15 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop
2011-09-15 17:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop
2011-09-15 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more chop
2011-09-15 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slinky
2011-09-15 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it for a moment
2011-09-15 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do trends generally move in large chunks?
2011-09-15 17:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up or down?
2011-09-15 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...they drip drip drip
2011-09-15 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wall of worry
2011-09-15 17:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slope of hope
2011-09-15 17:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is to confuse
2011-09-15 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the market's objective for this choppy period?
2011-09-15 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to take as much money away from the majority as it could?
2011-09-15 17:08:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dump the shorts, re establish folks long
2011-09-15 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has the market been successful in doing this?
2011-09-15 17:08:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: superb
2011-09-15 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2011-09-15 17:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to the point in which
2011-09-15 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even those in this chat room will get a bit perturbed with the whole thing?
2011-09-15 17:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what does Lew mention today?
2011-09-15 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "after the fact" ?
2011-09-15 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: frustrating even for the old folks in the room
2011-09-15 17:09:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-09-15 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deep breath in
2011-09-15 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exhale out
2011-09-15 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go back to the charts now and see what we have
2011-09-15 17:10:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, I was more looking forward when I said it-I have no problem with the squeeze advance-it was to be expected, I think
2011-09-15 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: understood
2011-09-15 17:11:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not that I never get frustrated, though, LOL
2011-09-15 17:12:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I had to wait for those 2 stocks for weeks, I was getting annoyed, for sure
2011-09-15 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you did it on your terms
2011-09-15 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the markets
2011-09-15 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fortunately
2011-09-15 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had a vacation thrown in
2011-09-15 17:13:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, feelings and trading are two different things..
2011-09-15 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very hard not to get caught up in current events
2011-09-15 17:14:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: vacation did help-freshened me back up=recommend it!
2011-09-15 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I usually do it every quarter
2011-09-15 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I close all positions and just take a break
2011-09-15 17:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then come back with a fresh eye
2011-09-15 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...highly recommended
2011-09-15 17:14:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good stuff-I was flat, as well
2011-09-15 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that you're going to lose out on a once in a lifetime situation
2011-09-15 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did anyone have anything to add to the discussion before I move on?
2011-09-15 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been one word mentioned over the last month that I kept reinforcing in just about every chat
2011-09-15 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so with a purpose
2011-09-15 17:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2011-09-15 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discipline
2011-09-15 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during highly emotional patterns
2011-09-15 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's your discipline that will keep you from making critical mistakes
2011-09-15 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very easy to join the herd during times when we either don't understand or can't control a situation
2011-09-15 17:17:29 [Message] watcher -> Chat: meditation helps to keep unbiased views
2011-09-15 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can
2011-09-15 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone has their own methods
2011-09-15 17:17:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hit and run has worked well-as you always say-take the singles and doubles
2011-09-15 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the home runs will come
2011-09-15 17:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you MUST make contact
2011-09-15 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't put too much pressure on yourself
2011-09-15 17:18:31 [Message] watcher -> Chat: your chat is a zen like experience
2011-09-15 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only person you have to impress is...
2011-09-15 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yourself
2011-09-15 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to look in the mirror every day
2011-09-15 17:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one cares about your wins and losses
2011-09-15 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a business
2011-09-15 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: treat it as such
2011-09-15 17:19:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you are a super trading coach Dave
2011-09-15 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here with trading is staying on point
2011-09-15 17:20:01 [Message] watcher -> Chat: zen master dave
2011-09-15 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-09-15 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2011-09-15 17:20:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely!
2011-09-15 17:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's nice of you to say
2011-09-15 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but really
2011-09-15 17:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is just experience here
2011-09-15 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have been where you all have been
2011-09-15 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I will make mistakes in the futrue
2011-09-15 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know this
2011-09-15 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I try to keep losses to a minimum
2011-09-15 17:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above all else
2011-09-15 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: learn from what went wrong and adjust
2011-09-15 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-09-15 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if I have a successful trade
2011-09-15 17:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to find ways in which it could had been a better trade
2011-09-15 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the moment you stop learning in this business
2011-09-15 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the day you might as well hang it up
2011-09-15 17:22:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when I kill it, I'm usually very cautious for a day or two
2011-09-15 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a good point
2011-09-15 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think everyone in here is probably at their worse when they have a successful trade
2011-09-15 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because you figure you're hot
2011-09-15 17:22:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-09-15 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you go right back in without having a plan
2011-09-15 17:23:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I like to just keep the money, LOL
2011-09-15 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you become no better than a rookie
2011-09-15 17:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you bank...and stand aside
2011-09-15 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the day end
2011-09-15 17:23:22 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: no plan = need bailout
2011-09-15 17:23:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, regroup, rethink
2011-09-15 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no plan and you don't know what to expect
2011-09-15 17:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you make a road trip
2011-09-15 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know where you start
2011-09-15 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know where you're going to finish
2011-09-15 17:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take another route along the way
2011-09-15 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your expectation of meeting your ultimate goal is then called into question
2011-09-15 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a new plan should be put together before proceeding
2011-09-15 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be you stopped half way at a hotel (sold half a position)
2011-09-15 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you still have the other half of the journey to go
2011-09-15 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are the same criteria to making it to your goal the same as it was when you started?
2011-09-15 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it raining out?
2011-09-15 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are there winds blowing?
2011-09-15 17:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you running low on fuel?
2011-09-15 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you sold half the position you likely saw something up ahead that made you bank your profits before reaching your goal
2011-09-15 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe momentum started to wane
2011-09-15 17:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you broke an EMA
2011-09-15 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever
2011-09-15 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading is a constantly  changing business
2011-09-15 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a plan in the morning
2011-09-15 17:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and most times
2011-09-15 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may reach your goal for that day
2011-09-15 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you may had had a change in course along the way
2011-09-15 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could had been a small detour
2011-09-15 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe the road was closed altogether
2011-09-15 17:28:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think a prepared trading plan is very important-I make my guys bring one daily
2011-09-15 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when a contractor builds a building
2011-09-15 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does he do it without a plan?
2011-09-15 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course not
2011-09-15 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talk blueprints in here all the time
2011-09-15 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a blueprint is our plan of attack
2011-09-15 17:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in our effort to beat the market at its own game
2011-09-15 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else matters
2011-09-15 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's us against the many
2011-09-15 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway..back to work
2011-09-15 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-15 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has also powered higher in the last two days
2011-09-15 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now taken out the reaction highs in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-09-15 17:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then instructs us that the bulls have a bit of momentum with them
2011-09-15 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making it unlikely that the bears will be able to do any real damage now until next week
2011-09-15 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components
2011-09-15 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we still have the 5% Trend below its zero line
2011-09-15 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we know that whatever the market is doing here
2011-09-15 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's part of a larger corrective process and NOT the start of a new uptrend
2011-09-15 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is very important to know and understand
2011-09-15 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing this is the difference between a trader who is making his decisions based on what he's being told (news events) from those who trade based on whether or not there is enough money leading price in a specific direction based on this very same information of news
2011-09-15 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can only move in one direction or the other if money is leading
2011-09-15 17:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is the horse where the market is the cart
2011-09-15 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the horse ain't leading, you're not likely to go anyway
2011-09-15 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have
2011-09-15 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money leading higher
2011-09-15 17:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and doing so in breaking important areas of resistance
2011-09-15 17:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember last Tuesday
2011-09-15 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were talking about the possibility of MCSUM ledges?
2011-09-15 17:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also saw that the bears were losing their conviction to the downside because of how tightly congested the individual postings were on the MCSUM
2011-09-15 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was a whisper that the downside was probably limited because....
2011-09-15 17:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money wasn't leading in that direction
2011-09-15 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sellers were drying up
2011-09-15 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you saw this on Monday
2011-09-15 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on Tuesday the battle began between bull and bear
2011-09-15 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like one of those video games where you're on a quest, but you turn into a room, and you have to battle your way out of it so that you can ether continue with your journey - or - you die
2011-09-15 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears died
2011-09-15 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls took over
2011-09-15 17:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now they have near term control of the action
2011-09-15 17:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no reason to fight it
2011-09-15 17:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because sometime next week
2011-09-15 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are going to make their own stand
2011-09-15 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and another battle will commence
2011-09-15 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we were at the zero line on the CVI's on Tuesday?
2011-09-15 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we're at the zero line we have balance between buyers and sellers
2011-09-15 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can then take near term control
2011-09-15 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depends on who's the strongest
2011-09-15 17:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I type this kind of stuff
2011-09-15 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I always think of a battle ground
2011-09-15 17:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the Little Big Horn on Montana
2011-09-15 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have the Calvary on one side
2011-09-15 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Indians on the other
2011-09-15 17:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all along the valley there are scrimmages
2011-09-15 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another way to look at this is football
2011-09-15 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side wants to drive the ball
2011-09-15 17:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other wants to keep that same side from gaining territory
2011-09-15 17:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of last week as a nice end around run for the bulls
2011-09-15 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we broke through the line today
2011-09-15 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how the secondary bears handle this break out
2011-09-15 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is war folks
2011-09-15 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side believes the market is over valued
2011-09-15 17:44:25 [Message] tracca -> Chat: utilities chart from July top to now seems like "flash crash in slow motion".
2011-09-15 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other side believes it's under valued
2011-09-15 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'll move on
2011-09-15 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NDX breadth MCO
2011-09-15 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now testing its highs of last month
2011-09-15 17:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't fight this kind of energy
2011-09-15 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be over done
2011-09-15 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the timing of when it might run out of momentum is an unknown here
2011-09-15 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-15 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was the same MCSUM (and its volume cousin) that kept us from going whole hog bearish on Tuesday
2011-09-15 17:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have now gap expansion post to the upside
2011-09-15 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective here is a zero line snapback
2011-09-15 17:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but near term
2011-09-15 17:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that the NDX breadth MCSUM is now at the -250 level
2011-09-15 17:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect some hesitation here tomorrow
2011-09-15 17:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2011-09-15 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a reduction in the speed in which money has been moving in over the last couple of days
2011-09-15 17:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-09-15 17:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eyeballing the NDX price chart
2011-09-15 17:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now retraced 50% of the crash now
2011-09-15 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there doesn't seem to be any deceleration at this point
2011-09-15 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we made mention of this price chart moving back into its trading range a couple of weeks ago as being something uncustomary of a bear market
2011-09-15 17:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're at even higher levels
2011-09-15 17:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and about 150 points away from new highs
2011-09-15 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the secondaries have this kind of leadership quality about them as we hear many tell us
2011-09-15 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can the NDX be moving higher and not leading lower?
2011-09-15 17:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way the NDX can even stay bouyant is if there's enough liquidity to keep it afloat
2011-09-15 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other wise...the secondaries are the first to sag...
2011-09-15 17:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because their companies are made up of issues that are based on what the future MIGHT hold
2011-09-15 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they provide nothing while you wait
2011-09-15 17:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money must be plentiful enough to take the risk and for these issues to lead higher
2011-09-15 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when all else is deemed "fairly valued"
2011-09-15 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...maybe it IS time to change our blueprint
2011-09-15 17:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the downside risk seems to be shrinking
2011-09-15 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2011-09-15 17:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the backdrop continues dire
2011-09-15 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not as dire as last week
2011-09-15 17:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or yesterday
2011-09-15 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money is starting to feel more and more confident that things are going to work out
2011-09-15 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise it wouldn't be moving in as to invest in this same future
2011-09-15 17:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is no future...why invest?
2011-09-15 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now
2011-09-15 17:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have many breadth MCSUM's moving above their -500 level
2011-09-15 17:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you recall
2011-09-15 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a important level on either side of the zero line
2011-09-15 17:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the point of escape velocity
2011-09-15 17:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2011-09-15 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we crossed below this level during the mid point of the crash
2011-09-15 17:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when the NYSE breadth MCSUM didn't achieve a level above the +500 level in early July
2011-09-15 17:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then turned lower
2011-09-15 17:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was our sell signal;
2011-09-15 17:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above it
2011-09-15 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend was able to carry higher previously on the back of this same energy
2011-09-15 17:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-15 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we mentioned (I think) on Tuesday
2011-09-15 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are running out time now
2011-09-15 17:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls continue to construct a foundation from where they can not only move higher
2011-09-15 17:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but trend higher
2011-09-15 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we're looking for
2011-09-15 17:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a trend
2011-09-15 17:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2011-09-15 17:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend IS your friend
2011-09-15 17:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes trading so much easier
2011-09-15 17:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correctional patterns are very difficult to make money on unless you move in and out on a daily basis
2011-09-15 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or
2011-09-15 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just look at what's going on once a week with a buy and hold strategy
2011-09-15 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the MID breadth MCO
2011-09-15 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now challenging its highs of last month
2011-09-15 17:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then
2011-09-15 17:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the SML breadth MCO
2011-09-15 17:59:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've moved higher now
2011-09-15 17:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and isn't that what we want to see for an advancing trend?
2011-09-15 18:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater majority of stocks moving in this same direction
2011-09-15 18:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and money moving into those issues that are less deserving?
2011-09-15 18:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line is
2011-09-15 18:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-09-15 18:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have enough energy to at least snapback to any previous trading ranges that were in force before the August collapse
2011-09-15 18:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which
2011-09-15 18:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if memory serves
2011-09-15 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was one of the options we talked about back in August as being possible
2011-09-15 18:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2011-09-15 18:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be a good test
2011-09-15 18:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if successful
2011-09-15 18:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the NYSE Bond CEF and Preferred stock A/D lines have been saying for 3 weeks now
2011-09-15 18:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see higher prices in all of the major averages before the end of the year
2011-09-15 18:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how we get there though is always a challenge
2011-09-15 18:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless on what you use
2011-09-15 18:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or whether or not you believe breadth and volume analysis can help you
2011-09-15 18:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must believe in your indicators
2011-09-15 18:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today we have now seen enough evidence to change our blueprint
2011-09-15 18:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have several breadth MCO's now challenging, and even eclipsing their recent highs
2011-09-15 18:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if they can take out their end June highs now
2011-09-15 18:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would clear the way for new highs in those same indices
2011-09-15 18:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2011-09-15 18:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2011-09-15 18:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the majority will continue to look for lower lows
2011-09-15 18:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that Europe will continue to be a problem
2011-09-15 18:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that job growth will continue to be a problem
2011-09-15 18:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they well might be
2011-09-15 18:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money has other ideas given the choices available
2011-09-15 18:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's all that counts
2011-09-15 18:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are indicating a near term top in the next two trading sessions
2011-09-15 18:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe after we blow out the rest of the puts tomorrow
2011-09-15 18:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are getting a bit "overbought" here
2011-09-15 18:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're getting higher highs in some of the MCO's
2011-09-15 18:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now should expect the market to top out only when the VTO's move to "overbought"
2011-09-15 18:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a new plan there
2011-09-15 18:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .41
2011-09-15 18:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06
2011-09-15 18:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still minimally "oversold"
2011-09-15 18:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .60
2011-09-15 18:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .74
2011-09-15 18:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so caution there
2011-09-15 18:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2011-09-15 18:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .57
2011-09-15 18:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2011-09-15 18:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to "overbought"
2011-09-15 18:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-15 18:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally speaking
2011-09-15 18:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now likely to challenge the top of this one month trading range
2011-09-15 18:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have enough money moving in now that some of the indices are likely to snapback to their prior trading ranges before the August decline
2011-09-15 18:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another idea here
2011-09-15 18:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is based on the bear flag pattern
2011-09-15 18:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we might even test the top of the upper line of the flag
2011-09-15 18:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to the horizontal line of the trading range itself
2011-09-15 18:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2011-09-15 18:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we broke to the upside from several apexes
2011-09-15 18:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback to or toward this breakout area can not be discounted near term
2011-09-15 18:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the NASDAQ Open 10 is "overbought"
2011-09-15 18:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom line for now
2011-09-15 18:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we need to take our foot off the accelerator of any downside visions of retests of last summers lows for now
2011-09-15 18:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and allow the market some room to further digest those loses
2011-09-15 18:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even
2011-09-15 18:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: allow the market to indicate that after the slip and fall there wasn't any broken bones
2011-09-15 18:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-09-15 18:15:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks much, great stuff, as usual
2011-09-15 18:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: long chat tonight...I hope you found it useful
2011-09-15 18:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discipline
2011-09-15 18:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn down the news
2011-09-15 18:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and listen to the tape
2011-09-15 18:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market talks very eloquently
2011-09-15 18:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's our job to listen to what it's saying and trade with it...not against it
2011-09-15 18:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2011-09-15 18:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm out of here
2011-09-15 18:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-09-15 18:17:05 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you
2011-09-15 18:17:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto!
2011-09-15 18:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what's going on next Tuesday
2011-09-15 18:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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