All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,454
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-09-13 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Good day
2011-09-13 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-09-13 16:00:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Good, and you?
2011-09-13 16:00:17 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Hi Dave
2011-09-13 16:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can use a vacation
2011-09-13 16:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that...fine
2011-09-13 16:00:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just had one-needed it, lol
2011-09-13 16:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: won't be getting one for another year
2011-09-13 16:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe
2011-09-13 16:01:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ouch
2011-09-13 16:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I'm lucky
2011-09-13 16:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-13 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had a stretch of not having a vacation for about 9 years
2011-09-13 16:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then I took 3 in 4 years
2011-09-13 16:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now back to the old grind...
2011-09-13 16:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have to make up for all the mistakes that Washington is doing
2011-09-13 16:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-09-13 16:02:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, you get to do biz in vacation destinations-does that count?
2011-09-13 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2011-09-13 16:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I work the entire time
2011-09-13 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2011-09-13 16:02:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bummer
2011-09-13 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a show this month in Vegas
2011-09-13 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I am NOT attending
2011-09-13 16:03:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: uh oh=does it matter if you go?
2011-09-13 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-09-13 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see when its scheduled...just for fun
2011-09-13 16:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 9/25-9/27
2011-09-13 16:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do we have any cycle lows due?
2011-09-13 16:04:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not sure
2011-09-13 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kinda interesting
2011-09-13 16:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those dates are basically mid line between the 3rd week of September and 2 week of October
2011-09-13 16:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...almost
2011-09-13 16:05:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hmmmm
2011-09-13 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of a stretch
2011-09-13 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-09-13 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I won't be there
2011-09-13 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should mean that it's not THAT important
2011-09-13 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-09-13 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after finding near term support at the -50 level
2011-09-13 16:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line
2011-09-13 16:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA pattern for a moment
2011-09-13 16:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see the construction of an old friend...the Sign of the Bear
2011-09-13 16:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SOB pattern includes a sharp sell off with a partial double top retracement before moving to lower lows
2011-09-13 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trigger of the pattern are the lows after the first top
2011-09-13 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's interesting to see how the market is playing tag, but not really committing to this same trigger
2011-09-13 16:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the trigger is thrown
2011-09-13 16:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective is generally the length of the preceding sharp sell off to provide balance to the pattern
2011-09-13 16:08:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: did we not break it?
2011-09-13 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or about 1300 NYA points
2011-09-13 16:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke it
2011-09-13 16:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not on a closing basis
2011-09-13 16:09:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2011-09-13 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we looked over the edge, it would seem, and didn't like what we saw
2011-09-13 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we pulled ourselves up in the last 30 minutes yesterday
2011-09-13 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back, of course, of another rumor with its basis of the current correction itself
2011-09-13 16:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time China stepping in for Italy
2011-09-13 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...I don't know why that's such a surprise
2011-09-13 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the finance minister of China was there no less than 2 weeks ago as he made the rounds in Europe
2011-09-13 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2011-09-13 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how congested the MCSUM has been since its top of last week
2011-09-13 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now were moving sideways at the (gasp) -750 level
2011-09-13 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-09-13 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a snapback pretty much complete between the 10% and 5% Trends
2011-09-13 16:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the components are below their zero line
2011-09-13 16:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this indicates that both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's of the CO NYSE breadth A/D line remain negative
2011-09-13 16:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or declining
2011-09-13 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good thing here is that we continue to build the necessary texture that we've been looking for in the MCO
2011-09-13 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again...it's going to take more time before we're through
2011-09-13 16:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like I mentioned in the weekend reviews of the last two weeks
2011-09-13 16:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably going to just frustrate both sides into OPEX
2011-09-13 16:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the majority will have nothing to show for their efforts
2011-09-13 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line as well for the NYSE breadth MCO
2011-09-13 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the CO MCO
2011-09-13 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have another bottom above bottom that is part of this texture we've been talking about
2011-09-13 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we break to lower price lows
2011-09-13 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're doing here is reflecting indecision on which direction we should be going
2011-09-13 16:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a lot of this decision coming from sources in which the market has no control over
2011-09-13 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2011-09-13 16:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any clarity of how all of this is going to sort out
2011-09-13 16:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had to laugh this morning
2011-09-13 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CNBC had their usual moronic polls this morning
2011-09-13 16:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and asked the audience "do you believe the Greece, with the help of the EU, be able to straighten out their mess a year from now?"
2011-09-13 16:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a said...mornonic questions
2011-09-13 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like they think this is somehow scripted by some writer in Hollywood
2011-09-13 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everything is going to be OK a year from now
2011-09-13 16:18:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, the cnbc anchors would be 100% yes, LOL
2011-09-13 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's shameful some of things I hear come out of their mouths of late
2011-09-13 16:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-13 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: off my soap box
2011-09-13 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2011-09-13 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that after the NYSE breadth MCSUM found resistance at the -250 level
2011-09-13 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we fell away for two days
2011-09-13 16:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but somehow found support when a lack of sellers were not able to push prices in their direction
2011-09-13 16:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has created a smallish ledge here
2011-09-13 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which, really, the near term outcome could go either way given the pattern itself is allowed to snapback all the way up to its zero line
2011-09-13 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2011-09-13 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is still a hit and run market
2011-09-13 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no trend for now
2011-09-13 16:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just (in)digestion...looking for relief
2011-09-13 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has been showing a bit more strength of late
2011-09-13 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having found MCO support at the -25 level
2011-09-13 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before moving back above its zero line today
2011-09-13 16:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice, however, that both of the components remain below their zero line
2011-09-13 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would tell us that the 19 day is still under the 39 day EMA on the NAAD line
2011-09-13 16:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the rate of decline has ceased for the 19 and its now allowing the 39 day EMA to catch up to the 19 day's amplitude
2011-09-13 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2011-09-13 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are aware
2011-09-13 16:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD line itself remains in a bearish configuration
2011-09-13 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has only bounced higher off its recent lows from last Friday
2011-09-13 16:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing to get excited about
2011-09-13 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a normal move forward, and then some backing and filling
2011-09-13 16:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2011-09-13 16:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have something more positive to talk about
2011-09-13 16:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NDX breadth MCO has moved above its reaction highs of last week today
2011-09-13 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has also taken the NDX breadth MCSUM higher - also closing above its last week, and away from the -500 resistance area
2011-09-13 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO components
2011-09-13 16:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 10% Trend is now back above its zero line
2011-09-13 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% Trend remains below zero
2011-09-13 16:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically, the expectation here would be for a snapback to or toward the zero line for the 10%, and at the same time, the 5% repelling away from its zero line...at least initially
2011-09-13 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do get further strength near term
2011-09-13 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more to the point
2011-09-13 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're able to take out the reversal bar highs of last Thursday
2011-09-13 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls might have something to work with that "could" blow out the September put buyers
2011-09-13 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have their options, which were a sure thing in August, all expire worthless
2011-09-13 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX data
2011-09-13 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have generally the same situation with the breadth MCO
2011-09-13 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a move back above its zero line today
2011-09-13 16:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has turned up the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-09-13 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though
2011-09-13 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that both of the SPX breadth MCO components remain below their zero line
2011-09-13 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us that we are still correcting and not in the beginning of a trend to the upside
2011-09-13 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the most likely outcome exactly what was forecasted a month ago
2011-09-13 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop
2011-09-13 16:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice though that the intraday swings are getting narrower now
2011-09-13 16:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if we're moving into the apex of a triangle
2011-09-13 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2011-09-13 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the structure of one very nicely here
2011-09-13 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was one of the corrective patterns we were looking for last month
2011-09-13 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too symmetrical
2011-09-13 16:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a triangle none the less
2011-09-13 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO moved back above its zero line today
2011-09-13 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like all of the other charts we've covered so far
2011-09-13 16:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the exception of the NDX
2011-09-13 16:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have last weeks highs needing to be taken out before any chance of a upside breakout from this same consolidation pattern can even be entertained
2011-09-13 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's breadth plurality was a little over 3:1 to the good
2011-09-13 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears are losing more and more followers the longer we continue to move sideways
2011-09-13 16:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the main reason for patterns like this to begin with
2011-09-13 16:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note the zero line snapback now complete on the OEX MCO 10% component
2011-09-13 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it break back above this resistance?
2011-09-13 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or is this all the bulls can muster as a counter trend?
2011-09-13 16:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the Dow breadth MCO
2011-09-13 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the look of the Dow breadth MCSUM since the last top
2011-09-13 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a potential here of the pattern to gap lower in a big way as it continues to slid off the shelf (so to speak)
2011-09-13 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls need to belly up here
2011-09-13 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: show a little more back bone
2011-09-13 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they are going to lose any near term advantage that they put together over the last couple of days
2011-09-13 16:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...this is looking like the final move higher in an apex
2011-09-13 16:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really need to step up in a hurry or we could see a quick collapse lower
2011-09-13 16:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday...the bears couldn't follow through on Friday's weakness
2011-09-13 16:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that gave the bulls hope today
2011-09-13 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: futures sold off hard over night
2011-09-13 16:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then an hour before the open, erased all of the decline
2011-09-13 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls couldn't get any backers
2011-09-13 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we basically flat lined it all day
2011-09-13 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like when the internals get compressed
2011-09-13 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the apex of a triangle builds this same kind of pressure as it relates to intrinsic price value
2011-09-13 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should there be lower prices from here as indicated by the crash in August?
2011-09-13 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or was the crash in August enough to provide fair value moving forward given all of the particulars in the fundamentals?
2011-09-13 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...we're about to get our answer
2011-09-13 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that should be stressed here
2011-09-13 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that, right now, today, there still isn't enough texture to the MCO's to maintain an advancing price structure IF the bulls take control over the next couple of days
2011-09-13 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it remains a hit and run situation
2011-09-13 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within the context of a choppy, and rather volatile, marketplace
2011-09-13 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many opinions here
2011-09-13 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every day there's one
2011-09-13 16:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...every hour it would seem that there's another opinion on which side is going to win out here
2011-09-13 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the internals are saying...there is no real control by either side here
2011-09-13 16:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's messy
2011-09-13 16:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's indecisive
2011-09-13 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls are going to need more "support" before than can literally pull away from this same digestion point
2011-09-13 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2011-09-13 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there still isn't enough energy yet to move above the 1218 area
2011-09-13 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any expectation of moving to anything above 1225 is still a low possibility
2011-09-13 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML data is echoing the MID
2011-09-13 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we ARE in sync here folks
2011-09-13 16:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're just moving either up or down with no real trend
2011-09-13 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback is complete now on the TM breadth MCO
2011-09-13 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components still well below their zero line(s)
2011-09-13 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-13 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now closer to a resolution to the month old consolidation pattern
2011-09-13 16:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears tested the price lows of 3 weeks ago and found support
2011-09-13 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are now trying to see if they have any more takers as they did when the market bottomed on 8/9
2011-09-13 16:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they too are lethargic in their opinion
2011-09-13 16:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get a solid resolution
2011-09-13 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that resolution will include a nice exapansion gap posting on the various MCSUM's
2011-09-13 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still in a trading range
2011-09-13 16:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1120 on the bottom...1220 on the top side
2011-09-13 16:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the mid point being....
2011-09-13 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1170
2011-09-13 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how's that for undecided
2011-09-13 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick look at the sector breadth charts
2011-09-13 16:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the XLF breadth MCO did take out last weeks high point today
2011-09-13 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLF breadth MCSUM is so negative right now
2011-09-13 16:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we're not likely to see too much price movement to the upside at this point
2011-09-13 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is just indicating that the majority of sellers in this sector are now finished
2011-09-13 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we have here is to wait for the final mop up before we're likely to see a tradable bottom
2011-09-13 16:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a close below 12 though would not be a good thing
2011-09-13 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLK breadth MCO
2011-09-13 16:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here is where the power is coming from for the NDX data
2011-09-13 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how we're just above the +50 level now
2011-09-13 16:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so technically, we're minimally overbought here
2011-09-13 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we have to show for it is a slight violation above the zero line for the 10% component
2011-09-13 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% component remains negative
2011-09-13 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...correctional
2011-09-13 16:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably based on a handful of highly weighted stocks
2011-09-13 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: beautiful symmetrical triangle there on the XLK
2011-09-13 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch for the break out now
2011-09-13 16:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like most triangle breakouts
2011-09-13 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to see daily volume to expand
2011-09-13 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you only apply 50% of your total allotment on the break
2011-09-13 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then add on either the snapback to the breakout
2011-09-13 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or once new price highs or lows are made
2011-09-13 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the initial burst is always robust because of this same compression into the apex
2011-09-13 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're sure to see some nice action fairly soon
2011-09-13 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO, and it's components, are showing the same set up as with the XLK data
2011-09-13 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the same looking triangle pattern, but here, the triangle is working out just below the highs of the year
2011-09-13 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-13 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much for the bulls here to snort about as yet
2011-09-13 17:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bears aren't showing much in the way of growling either
2011-09-13 17:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both sides seem to be taking their corners...waiting for the bell to ring
2011-09-13 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great opportunity for the bulls here
2011-09-13 17:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2011-09-13 17:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the McClellan volume data
2011-09-13 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line on the CO NYSE volume MCO
2011-09-13 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that this snapback is allowing the CO NYSE volume MCSUM to find some support at the -750 level
2011-09-13 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO did move above its previous highs
2011-09-13 17:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the breadth side not accomplishing this same feat
2011-09-13 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that just a handful of  known issues were likely getting the most amount of love from money flow
2011-09-13 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should show up in the NDX given that its breadth MCO did move to higher highs
2011-09-13 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the chart...it did
2011-09-13 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here that with today's move higher in the NDX volume MCO
2011-09-13 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we gaped above our NDX volume MCSUM resistance point of the -500 level
2011-09-13 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is a good thing for this basket of stocks
2011-09-13 17:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and does give a slight advantage that the tone of the next couple of days might be positive
2011-09-13 17:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-09-13 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is just one index
2011-09-13 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest, so far, are far from confirming this small thrust higher in money flow
2011-09-13 17:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also note
2011-09-13 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have in the past
2011-09-13 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NDX volume MCSUM does have a bottom above bottom structure already in place
2011-09-13 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we might still need to move lower to provide the bullish divergences that have been missing so far from the majority of the indices we cover with these chats
2011-09-13 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX might not show a high amount of sell off during these processes
2011-09-13 17:12:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's volume mcsum is in the last gap resistance area, no?
2011-09-13 17:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the volume data pretty much mimics the breadth side of things
2011-09-13 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the one exception here coming with the TM volume MCO which did move above its resistance level today
2011-09-13 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking...
2011-09-13 17:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gap resistance levels have, by most, have already been broken with the volume McSUM's
2011-09-13 17:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except for the MID and SML
2011-09-13 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most seem to be finding resistance at their 250 multiples
2011-09-13 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting to note
2011-09-13 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is right up against its resistance...the NDX is moving through this zone now
2011-09-13 17:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NYSE CO and composite have been snapping back to these same gap zones
2011-09-13 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2011-09-13 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who wanted to sell...are pretty much done
2011-09-13 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who are hanging on based on the hope that prices are going to bounce higher to sell at higher levels
2011-09-13 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are likely to be disappointed
2011-09-13 17:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the "unwilling" sellers will accompany the final purge
2011-09-13 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what it looks like for now..
2011-09-13 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-09-13 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has since the 8/9 lows
2011-09-13 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-13 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCO moved to challenge the June/July highs a couple of weeks ago
2011-09-13 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it terminated any real hope by the bears of moving much further below the actual lows from last summer
2011-09-13 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that our downside price targets are not that wide based on the current consolidation range of 100 SPX points
2011-09-13 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't take much now to panic the market into a bottom that could last for a year or two
2011-09-13 17:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe more
2011-09-13 17:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone seems to be picking bottoms and tops with the greatest of ease lately
2011-09-13 17:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the market makes them wrong 2 or 3 days later
2011-09-13 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-13 17:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective of consolidations, after a pronounced trend, is to drain both sides of capital on the (emotional) expectation of either a reversal or a continuation
2011-09-13 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this regard, this range has been doing its job quite nicely
2011-09-13 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a large range to do so which has added some whip cream and a cherry who have been day trading this structure
2011-09-13 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for everyone else
2011-09-13 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each trade has either been break even or a loss
2011-09-13 17:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the frustration is building
2011-09-13 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so is the apex
2011-09-13 17:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-13 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after indicating a price reversal within 2 trading days on Friday
2011-09-13 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's have now moved back above their zero lines (except the Dow)
2011-09-13 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are also bouncing off their "oversold" levels
2011-09-13 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was one of the things we pointed to last week as whisper that the bears were going to find some near term trouble moving lower
2011-09-13 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain pretty much neutral
2011-09-13 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side will be able to take control in the next couple of days
2011-09-13 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .90
2011-09-13 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2011-09-13 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we know all too well
2011-09-13 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Open 10 moves below the 1.10 level
2011-09-13 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for the bears to show any kind of downside follow through
2011-09-13 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .53
2011-09-13 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2011-09-13 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ Open 10 at .80
2011-09-13 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2011-09-13 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have MCO readings on the NDX as being minimally "overbought"
2011-09-13 17:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have the 10 day average of the NASDAQ TRIN at "overbought"
2011-09-13 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during correctional phases
2011-09-13 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is enough to call a near term top
2011-09-13 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the majors not showing the same kind of positive patterns here
2011-09-13 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let's not get too carried away if the SPX closes above 1175 near term
2011-09-13 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be a hook
2011-09-13 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right before quadruple witching...not a good thing
2011-09-13 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-09-13 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the 21 day SMA of the NASDAQ TRIN!
2011-09-13 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's way too much...too fast
2011-09-13 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's dangerous
2011-09-13 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't like that
2011-09-13 17:30:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 1178 is a .618 of the last drop....just sayin
2011-09-13 17:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: funny
2011-09-13 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always a rhythm, isn't there?
2011-09-13 17:30:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-09-13 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is not allow yourself get caught up with all of this media hype with Europe
2011-09-13 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure, it's a bad thing
2011-09-13 17:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's no place for emotion here
2011-09-13 17:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must remain focused and disciplined
2011-09-13 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .63
2011-09-13 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2011-09-13 17:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the same problem with the 21 day SMA
2011-09-13 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-09-13 17:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain defensive
2011-09-13 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has moved to "overbought" extremes with the secondaries
2011-09-13 17:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the rest of the market continues to shout out "show me"
2011-09-13 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of this is probably option related
2011-09-13 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2011-09-13 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ISEE number closed today at a 128
2011-09-13 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same level it did last week before the sell off
2011-09-13 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like last Tuesday
2011-09-13 17:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to look exhaustive here
2011-09-13 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remaining lower
2011-09-13 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here too the bears are starting to lose their momentum in all this
2011-09-13 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe we're just going to have to wait until next week before we get a final heave
2011-09-13 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like feeling ill and trying not to vomit
2011-09-13 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-09-13 17:36:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Greece has about the same GDP as the Dallas Ft Worth area, funny, eh?
2011-09-13 17:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really shouldn't have that much effect
2011-09-13 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem is though
2011-09-13 17:36:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-09-13 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that Europe wanted to be like the United States
2011-09-13 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the only way, they figured, that they could compete with us
2011-09-13 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what they didn't appreciate though
2011-09-13 17:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that language, borders, culture, and history do mean something
2011-09-13 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the talk of late
2011-09-13 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one country warning the other of war if Greece doesn't come through
2011-09-13 17:38:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-09-13 17:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other countries just turning their back on the whole situation
2011-09-13 17:39:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seems as if S+P has a French bank downgrade up their sleeve, as well
2011-09-13 17:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Swiss have thrown down the gauntlet on their currency now
2011-09-13 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it's very complex
2011-09-13 17:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and history is against them here
2011-09-13 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll see what happens
2011-09-13 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2011-09-13 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the longer term
2011-09-13 17:39:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just great merchandising fodder
2011-09-13 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market internals are still suggesting that by the end of this year we should be at new price highs
2011-09-13 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that hasn't changed
2011-09-13 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something is going to give here
2011-09-13 17:40:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, we are not Europe
2011-09-13 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be panic
2011-09-13 17:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once it's out in the open
2011-09-13 17:40:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the dax is already hammered
2011-09-13 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will then have clarity and liquidity to move higher again
2011-09-13 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the DAX more closely resembles the NASDAQ
2011-09-13 17:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FTSE, which has been holding nicely, is closely related to the NYA
2011-09-13 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice
2011-09-13 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the longer term trend line of the NYAD line is still holding here
2011-09-13 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market bounced off this line on Monday
2011-09-13 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me try typing the link since I'm still having problems with the copy and paste function
2011-09-13 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad11/breadthspx090911.png
2011-09-13 17:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2011-09-13 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...where exactly is this bear market we keep hearing about?
2011-09-13 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bear and bull markets are defined by the underlying liquidity factor that drives the direction of prices
2011-09-13 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are, however, times in which traders will either over react
2011-09-13 17:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will sell or buy based on rumor...on what may happen...how it may affect the market value of prices
2011-09-13 17:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our biggest disadvantage these days is that we are in a global community
2011-09-13 17:45:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: is that AD line allowed to break?
2011-09-13 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have traders outside our borders that can have an effect on the direction of these same trends
2011-09-13 17:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes, the A/D line is allowed to break
2011-09-13 17:45:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thanks
2011-09-13 17:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the horizontal orange line holds
2011-09-13 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the wash out point
2011-09-13 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice
2011-09-13 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYAD line is starting to compress
2011-09-13 17:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-13 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is very important for everyone to understand
2011-09-13 17:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during times in which the A/D line is so strong that its deviation from what is deemed "normal" is acute
2011-09-13 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is up to this same quotient to find a healthy way to find parity between buyers and sellers
2011-09-13 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it does this by moving counter trend to where it can test its longer term 200 day EMA, or 1% Trend
2011-09-13 17:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in doing this, it allows the shorter term 19 day and 39 day EMA's to also test this longer term trend line of support or resistance
2011-09-13 17:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the NYAD line with these three EMA's
2011-09-13 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will note that we are within...oh...maybe 2 or 3 more weeks before this is accomplished
2011-09-13 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in fact
2011-09-13 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trendline in the chart shown is pretty much where the 200 day EMA is right now
2011-09-13 17:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a poke below this loner term EMA
2011-09-13 17:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would allow the 19 and 39 day EMA to do the same
2011-09-13 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would then complete this process of finding longer term parity
2011-09-13 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where the bulls can once again build a new wall of worry
2011-09-13 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT is the real objective here
2011-09-13 17:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to find, once again, longer term balance between buyers and sellers
2011-09-13 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where one side can then take control on a trending basis
2011-09-13 17:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-13 17:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until this sell off
2011-09-13 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had really terrible things happen globally that, in a bear market, would had decimated the indices
2011-09-13 17:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the high amount of liquidity that we continue to have right now
2011-09-13 17:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it had to take an even bigger (financial) earthquake (and tsunami) to shake the tree of those who have been having a pretty easy time over the last two years of working with this uptrend
2011-09-13 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get enough of a scare
2011-09-13 17:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get enough traders doubting that it will, or can, continue
2011-09-13 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there you have a bottom
2011-09-13 17:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like in 3/2009
2011-09-13 17:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where no one wanted to move long stocks
2011-09-13 17:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the very existence of the US as being a major player moving forward was being questioned
2011-09-13 17:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll see how it goes
2011-09-13 17:54:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great perspectives-thanks
2011-09-13 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always a learning experience how we reach a technical target
2011-09-13 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's always different
2011-09-13 17:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never repeats
2011-09-13 17:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-09-13 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to take off
2011-09-13 17:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-09-13 17:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2011-09-13 17:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch