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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,437
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-09-11 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-09-11 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-09-11 16:00:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great!
2014-09-11 16:00:44 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good...thank you.  How are you today?
2014-09-11 16:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...I'm doing well...I've just been able to find my desk now! [smile]
2014-09-11 16:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of catch up work...done!
2014-09-11 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-09-11 16:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...without further adieu...let's get to working
2014-09-11 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after getting our obligatory bounce on Wednesday
2014-09-11 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw another day of follow through to or towards the zero line on the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2014-09-11 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a reading of -8
2014-09-11 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now bounced enough to where new selling might be able to come back into the market
2014-09-11 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-09-11 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the rest of the market indices are back above their MCO zero lines
2014-09-11 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this may not occur so fast
2014-09-11 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that on Tuesday
2014-09-11 16:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYSE CO and Composite breadth MCO's moved a bit more to the downside than what was usual and customary
2014-09-11 16:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so being that they were weaker going into the reflex rally
2014-09-11 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would likely take another day or so to meet this same obligation of a snapback to the MCO zero line
2014-09-11 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-09-11 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for James
2014-09-11 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components of the MCO are actually the 19 day EMA (10% Trend) and the 39 day EMA (5% Trend) of the advance/decline line that's being measured
2014-09-11 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line is the demarcation point between these same EMA's of either rising or falling
2014-09-11 16:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with today's NYSE CO components back above their zero line
2014-09-11 16:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that both the 19 day and 39 day EMA of the NYSE CO A/D line are back to rising again
2014-09-11 16:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to Tuesday where the 19 was moving lower while the 39 was still rising
2014-09-11 16:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the closer to the zero line either of these "Trends", the more flat line (or neutral) the movement in the EMA
2014-09-11 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2014-09-11 16:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll move on
2014-09-11 16:14:37 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: yes
2014-09-11 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as both of these EMA's are back above zero
2014-09-11 16:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have a crossover buy signal as yet
2014-09-11 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that being
2014-09-11 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the shorter term EMA is rising enough where it's moving faster than the intermediate term EMA
2014-09-11 16:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO then measures the SPEED in which these two EMA's are moving away or toward each other in direct relationship to the A/D line itself
2014-09-11 16:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM then measures the difference in distance between these same EMA's
2014-09-11 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-11 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is above its zero line
2014-09-11 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells you that the 19 day EMA is ABOVE the 39 day EMA
2014-09-11 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is below the zero line
2014-09-11 16:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells you that the 19 day EMA is BELOW the 39 day EMA
2014-09-11 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line being the crossover point
2014-09-11 16:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the basics of what you're looking at
2014-09-11 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-11 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what we're doing then is simple
2014-09-11 16:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are measuring not only the direction of money flow but also its velocity
2014-09-11 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that we are able to ascertain the direction in which prices are likely to move
2014-09-11 16:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as breadth (money) leads price
2014-09-11 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...moving back to the charts
2014-09-11 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that with the NYSE CO components back above their zero line
2014-09-11 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO is still below its zero line
2014-09-11 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that prices can do is chop
2014-09-11 16:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we need everything in agreement to create a TREND in prices
2014-09-11 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...James, we skip over the Traditional Data and go directly to the next chart - Ratio Adjusted
2014-09-11 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see here that the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also moved higher today
2014-09-11 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's amplitude in comparison to the CO is not as vigorous
2014-09-11 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it came in with a -23 reading today
2014-09-11 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then tell us that the interest rate sensitive issues that make up the NYSE are dragging currently
2014-09-11 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and without this basket of issues leading
2014-09-11 16:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely that prices will be able to break out to higher highs on a near term basis
2014-09-11 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term in here is a day or two
2014-09-11 16:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Short term is 2-6 weeks
2014-09-11 16:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Intermediate term is 6-12 weeks
2014-09-11 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...taking ruler to monitor here
2014-09-11 16:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's up MCO reading was enough to break above the accelerated declining tops line
2014-09-11 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still need to move above our "blip resistance" point at the MCO zero line before we can feel comfortable that a important price pattern low would be behind us
2014-09-11 16:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until this is accomplished
2014-09-11 16:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE is vulnerable to a near term ambush by the sellers
2014-09-11 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-09-11 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we met our technical expectation of a zero line snapback on Wednesday
2014-09-11 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there was very little follow through on this today
2014-09-11 16:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and although we did move back above the NASDAQ MCO zero line
2014-09-11 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't enough to break above the declining tops line controlling this particular pattern
2014-09-11 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...on the bullish side of the equation
2014-09-11 16:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the NASDAQ MCO components
2014-09-11 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we move back above the zero line today
2014-09-11 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also generated enough energy to provide a crossover buy signal
2014-09-11 16:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM looking rather buoyant here in remaining above its zero line
2014-09-11 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be a whisper that Tuesday's sell off was, once again, a capitulation point in an extremely strong trend to the upside
2014-09-11 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to see if we get follow through above these negative lines of influence mentioned earlier for that to be the correct interpretation
2014-09-11 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the rest of the indices are echoing this
2014-09-11 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the majority of the breadth MCSUM's already above their +500 level
2014-09-11 16:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't take much to see another re-initiation point take place
2014-09-11 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-09-11 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we can see the snapback of Wednesday to the zero line
2014-09-11 16:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how "magically" it found resistance today
2014-09-11 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed slightly lower
2014-09-11 16:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between this and the NASDAQ data then
2014-09-11 16:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that money was taking a more broad based approach in moving capital back into this exchange
2014-09-11 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why the Composite had a higher close
2014-09-11 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking again at the NDX price chart
2014-09-11 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can continue to see the inverted symmetrical triangle that we touched upon on Thursday
2014-09-11 16:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless money is able to break back above the NDX MCO zero line
2014-09-11 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest a downside break being that the sellers have a slight advantage at this time (the MCO being below zero)
2014-09-11 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX price chart
2014-09-11 16:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see what looks to be a classic rounding top formation
2014-09-11 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX breadth MCO still below its zero line after performing its technical obligation of a snapback to this same line of neutrality
2014-09-11 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2014-09-11 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all the MCO's covered
2014-09-11 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a simple case that unless there is enough buying coming in to break the declining lines of resistance in the MCO's
2014-09-11 16:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that, near term, the sellers have control of the action
2014-09-11 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as ever slight it might be
2014-09-11 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though
2014-09-11 16:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also know
2014-09-11 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2014-09-11 16:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this makes it very difficult for the sellers to push prices in their direction without keeping constant pressure in doing so
2014-09-11 16:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...the market recoils higher as it has shown in the last couple of days
2014-09-11 16:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO is back above its zero line now
2014-09-11 16:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a crossover buy signal as well in the OEX MCO components
2014-09-11 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just missing a small point change in the OEX MCO
2014-09-11 16:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it's a small enough change where we can assume that there is compression on the tape right now
2014-09-11 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO found zero line resistance today
2014-09-11 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any break below Tuesday's levels triggering the idea of a double top in the yearly price chart
2014-09-11 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that occurs over the next couple of days
2014-09-11 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly likely that the Dow will find support at its August lows
2014-09-11 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will solidify the trading range
2014-09-11 16:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this expectation of support comes from the Dow breadth MCSUM being well above its zero line
2014-09-11 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's very likely that any selling will be absorb as we traverse to the lower end of the range
2014-09-11 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2014-09-11 16:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow will be able to break out above this recent top IF we see a break above the declining tops line that's controlling the short term pattern of the Dow breadth MCO
2014-09-11 16:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have our blueprint there
2014-09-11 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO has also fully snapped back to its zero line now
2014-09-11 16:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today with a +1 reading
2014-09-11 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since we're at the zero line
2014-09-11 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that positions are evened up between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2014-09-11 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one side is about to take control
2014-09-11 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a crossover buy signal on the MID MCO components
2014-09-11 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's whispers like this that can give us the advantage over the greater majority
2014-09-11 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2014-09-11 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we were expecting a bounce on Wednesday because the 10% Trend had met its 5% Trend
2014-09-11 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same situation can happen here as well in the opposite direction
2014-09-11 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, with the MID breadth MCSUM well above the zero line
2014-09-11 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, by itself, tips the scales in favor of a bullish resolution
2014-09-11 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you place bets accordingly
2014-09-11 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2014-09-11 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since there is no rush here
2014-09-11 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we become patient and wait for this follow through confirmation before using our capital in an effort to see it appreciate in value
2014-09-11 16:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-09-11 16:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have something that we haven't seen so far
2014-09-11 16:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is the SML breadth MCO actually closed above its "blip resistance" point today
2014-09-11 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stalled right at its declining tops line
2014-09-11 16:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...a positive whisper that should be respected for what it may imply
2014-09-11 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it sure doesn't hurt to have a crossover buy signal on the SML components either
2014-09-11 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it could had been a "shake the tree" moment for the market on Tuesday
2014-09-11 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also
2014-09-11 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whenever we get the ISEE at 80 or below
2014-09-11 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just too many put speculators betting on a price top
2014-09-11 16:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market will rarely allow these same traders the ability to be right
2014-09-11 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they watch their front month puts expire worthless next week
2014-09-11 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahh...to be young and inexperienced
2014-09-11 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-11 16:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going for the leverage never quite works out the way it should
2014-09-11 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've all been there
2014-09-11 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know how depressing it can be when it doesn't work out
2014-09-11 16:51:28 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-11 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally looking at the TM breadth MCO
2014-09-11 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here it's not showing too much promise for the buyers in general
2014-09-11 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it remains below its zero line
2014-09-11 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components giving us our minimal expectation that we were looking for on Tuesday
2014-09-11 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Trend snapping back up to its zero line
2014-09-11 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% Trend bouncing higher off this same line of balance
2014-09-11 16:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-11 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're seeing quite a bit of indecision right now
2014-09-11 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market fulfilling our obligatory technical snapbacks
2014-09-11 16:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while some of the indices show enough money moving back in to where a renewed buy signal may result
2014-09-11 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still need to see better amplitude in this same money flow dynamic to make this thing "go"
2014-09-11 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...probably best to play this defensively
2014-09-11 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and allowing the market to "show us" it's true intentions
2014-09-11 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the good news now
2014-09-11 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that WWW is out of the way
2014-09-11 16:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in past months this year
2014-09-11 16:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after this has passed
2014-09-11 16:55:45 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: WWW?
2014-09-11 16:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market tended to rise during the week of options expirations once it was out of the way
2014-09-11 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WWW = Wild Woolly Wednesday
2014-09-11 16:56:16 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: [biggrin]
2014-09-11 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a term coined by Don Wolanchuk many years ago
2014-09-11 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the great majority of futures holders roll over their front month contracts out in time
2014-09-11 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually taking place the Wednesday of the week before OPEX.
2014-09-11 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it can get wild
2014-09-11 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it just a whisper in the night
2014-09-11 16:57:43 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thanks
2014-09-11 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2014-09-11 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's continue with the breadth charts and look at the sectors
2014-09-11 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the XLY breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2014-09-11 16:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLY components remain above their zero line
2014-09-11 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here, with the zero line snapback completed, and the 10% component "back kissing" the 5% component
2014-09-11 16:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a reflex of this to the downside as soon as Friday
2014-09-11 17:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM is now in its 3rd day of pause
2014-09-11 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that if this is, in fact, a pause in the rising trend
2014-09-11 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a reversal higher by day 5
2014-09-11 17:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2014-09-11 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we begin to see individual post expansion to the downside in the MCSUM pick up
2014-09-11 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next day or so will give us some important "trending" information with this basket of issues
2014-09-11 17:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLP breadth MCO
2014-09-11 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're back above the MCO zero line
2014-09-11 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLP components are also on a renewed crossover buy signal
2014-09-11 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we see that today's higher MCO reading has pushed the XLP breadth MCSUM to a higher high
2014-09-11 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now very likely that we're starting to see capital moving back into this defensive sector
2014-09-11 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can be good news or bad news for the market in general
2014-09-11 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for us
2014-09-11 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that any selling here is NOT moving out of the market
2014-09-11 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's being allocated into defensive stocks
2014-09-11 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's longer term bullish for the market with this higher high then in the MCSUM
2014-09-11 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's look for this MCSUM to continue to rise toward the +750 level
2014-09-11 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully by then we'll a better rhythm for us to work with
2014-09-11 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE breadth MCO
2014-09-11 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how the price pattern looks to be trying its best in not letting go of the $94.50 level
2014-09-11 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like hanging over a cliff and knowing that if you don't hang on you're going to "crash"
2014-09-11 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCSUM is now getting ever closer in triggering our Summation Failure
2014-09-11 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's all working together here quite nicely
2014-09-11 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far
2014-09-11 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the XLE breadth MCO
2014-09-11 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to trying our best to hang in here in not making a lower low
2014-09-11 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2014-09-11 17:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remain on alert
2014-09-11 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on a sell signal
2014-09-11 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the price of crude and other energy products play catch up to this same weakness in the energy stocks that we've been seeing over the last several weeks
2014-09-11 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2014-09-11 17:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if short
2014-09-11 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would might put in a cover stop order at .10 above the closing prices of Tuesday
2014-09-11 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let me check a chart..one sec
2014-09-11 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can tell I'm not trading this
2014-09-11 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I'm glad I did
2014-09-11 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a high volume reversal bar today
2014-09-11 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but $97 should provide strong resistance for now
2014-09-11 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2014-09-11 17:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got an ADX sell signal today
2014-09-11 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: toughy...but for now...$92 is still the downside target
2014-09-11 17:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's really a case of how much play you want to give this
2014-09-11 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2014-09-11 17:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the energy sector is by far the weakest sector right now
2014-09-11 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any kind of price decay that we might see short term on a general basis is likely to be heavily weighted towards this sector
2014-09-11 17:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the main problem for any short right now being
2014-09-11 17:13:36 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: so, a "back kiss" of the components would possibly put one on alert?
2014-09-11 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market environment remains friendly overall
2014-09-11 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like a snapback of both the XLE components to its zero line James
2014-09-11 17:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would give the trader a good entry point for a short
2014-09-11 17:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember what you're looking at though
2014-09-11 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both components below their zero lines
2014-09-11 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this instructs you that the direction of money with this sector is heading lower
2014-09-11 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or out of the market
2014-09-11 17:15:23 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: I see, makes sense
2014-09-11 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you follow this flow of money, you're percentage of success in shorting this index is fairly high
2014-09-11 17:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-09-11 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is just one sector
2014-09-11 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not the broad market
2014-09-11 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-09-11 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when a sector is weak in an overall rising market
2014-09-11 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only will the rate of decay in prices be relatively muted
2014-09-11 17:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the price pattern will likely move sideways
2014-09-11 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you need all time periods to agree to make the most of a trend
2014-09-11 17:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the short term trend is negative
2014-09-11 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the intermediate term is positive
2014-09-11 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you're going to chop overall as these two time periods battle it out
2014-09-11 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same concept applies to sectors in relation to the bigger picture
2014-09-11 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2014-09-11 17:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have a wooden wheel with spokes
2014-09-11 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and each spoke is a sector of the bigger wheel
2014-09-11 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one sector is broken
2014-09-11 17:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wheel can still turn forward without too much of a problem
2014-09-11 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if another spoke breaks
2014-09-11 17:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it integrity of the wheel becomes harder to move forward
2014-09-11 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 or more spokes...and the wheel is liable to break
2014-09-11 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the modern world
2014-09-11 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have self sealing tires
2014-09-11 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you get one nail in the tire
2014-09-11 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can continue on your merry way
2014-09-11 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you have many nails
2014-09-11 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tire is going to lose its ability to maintain its structural form
2014-09-11 17:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll have a flat
2014-09-11 17:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: context is important in breadth analysis
2014-09-11 17:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you just can't see something happen and then think it will continue to do what you believe it should
2014-09-11 17:21:33 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you, that was very helpful
2014-09-11 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why knowing where money is flowing, how much there is, and how fast its moving, is paramount in putting the odds in your favor for a successful outcome
2014-09-11 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2014-09-11 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will limit your losses substantially
2014-09-11 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't worry James...this is a learning process in throwing out what you've already learned [smile]
2014-09-11 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-09-11 17:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the lower lows in prices
2014-09-11 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have any MCO divergence as yet
2014-09-11 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds of success remain on the short side within the larger contextual direction of the market in general
2014-09-11 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLF breadth MCO
2014-09-11 17:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have also snapped back to the zero line as well
2014-09-11 17:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLF components remain on a crossover sell...but remain above their zero line
2014-09-11 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should continue to expect choppy behavior near term
2014-09-11 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with $23.20 holding good price support at this time
2014-09-11 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO remains buoyant
2014-09-11 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue stay above the MCO zero line
2014-09-11 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while maintaining a series of tops beneath tops in the MCO pattern
2014-09-11 17:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here though
2014-09-11 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with the MCO and its components above their zero line
2014-09-11 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any kind of positive day in this ETF is able to push prices higher without too much of an effort
2014-09-11 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like Wednesday's new all time highs
2014-09-11 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2014-09-11 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are at an important juncture
2014-09-11 17:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're about to challenge the XLV breadth MCSUM highs of early July
2014-09-11 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with any successful take out of these highs
2014-09-11 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern will then be able to move with a lot more vigor to the upside
2014-09-11 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2014-09-11 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll note that we did break above the longer term declining tops line in the XLV breadth MCSUM on Wednesday
2014-09-11 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a pretty good bet that the early July highs will be taken out
2014-09-11 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our indecision pattern continues in the XLI price action
2014-09-11 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to have disagreement on which side of the MCO zero line and it's XLI components should be on
2014-09-11 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a choppy trading range is the direct result
2014-09-11 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll continue to watch this sector as it has a close relationship to both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports
2014-09-11 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB finally broke below its zero line this week
2014-09-11 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 5% component still remains solvent
2014-09-11 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although last weeks weakness here suggested a continuing weak precious metals market this week
2014-09-11 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might see some sort of pause to this same downside action short term...maybe into next week
2014-09-11 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the XLK index today
2014-09-11 17:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it hit our SAR buy stop?
2014-09-11 17:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see
2014-09-11 17:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...hit it yesterday
2014-09-11 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this sector is the one to watch at this point
2014-09-11 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLK breadth MCO is right at its zero line
2014-09-11 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLK components remain very positive here
2014-09-11 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLK breadth MCSUM is holding +1300
2014-09-11 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any buying here and we could really see this index "go go go"
2014-09-11 17:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line snapback now complete in the XLU breadth MCO
2014-09-11 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the component's found zero line support of their own
2014-09-11 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are now back to a crossover buy signal by the slimmest of margins
2014-09-11 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while all the while
2014-09-11 17:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLU breadth MCSUM is doing its best in holding in and around the +1000 level
2014-09-11 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-11 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little bit of a mixed bag
2014-09-11 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the defensive sectors like Staples, Health Care and the Utilities hanging in there nicely
2014-09-11 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the Tech sector doesn't seem to want to let go as yet
2014-09-11 17:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-09-11 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's and STVO's are now neutral across the board
2014-09-11 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2014-09-11 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are now suggesting that a strong up trend is progress
2014-09-11 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're holding nicely
2014-09-11 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .67
2014-09-11 17:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit frothy there
2014-09-11 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2014-09-11 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .82
2014-09-11 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too bad
2014-09-11 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2014-09-11 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not too "overbought"
2014-09-11 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can work with that
2014-09-11 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .74
2014-09-11 17:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2014-09-11 17:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-11 17:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together
2014-09-11 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that unless we get a sudden surge of buying
2014-09-11 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would likely be the result by something in the news that it would on a technical basis
2014-09-11 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're like to continue to chop within the current narrow range into next week
2014-09-11 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until whatever is bothering the market is out of its system
2014-09-11 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS prelim and then I'll take a quick look at the sector and global charts
2014-09-11 17:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TSX Ventures is VERY weak here
2014-09-11 17:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bueno for the gold market
2014-09-11 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD line has moved back above all 3 of its EMA's now
2014-09-11 17:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew!
2014-09-11 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +55
2014-09-11 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we get a good day on Friday
2014-09-11 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll continue the weekly buy signal
2014-09-11 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing stuff
2014-09-11 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the charts for bullish configurations...
2014-09-11 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: china remains buoyant
2014-09-11 17:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Europe is still weak overall
2014-09-11 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Australia had a tough week too
2014-09-11 17:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ya know?
2014-09-11 17:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on second look, Europe looks to be firming
2014-09-11 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding good EMA support now
2014-09-11 17:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Aerospace
2014-09-11 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Banking sector is looking good now
2014-09-11 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Biotech looks ready to break out again to the upside
2014-09-11 17:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities continue to get trashed
2014-09-11 17:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now down 11% in two months (huge move)
2014-09-11 17:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Euro really needs to hold support here and now or it may fall out of bed
2014-09-11 17:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe 118?
2014-09-11 17:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugly chart
2014-09-11 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the transportation sector is enjoying the lower fuel costs
2014-09-11 17:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the energy sector is not all weak here
2014-09-11 17:54:54 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: where do I find the sector and global charts?
2014-09-11 17:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't
2014-09-11 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're mine! [smile]
2014-09-11 17:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can make up lists of your own though
2014-09-11 17:55:15 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: lol
2014-09-11 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you work with the catalog over the weekend
2014-09-11 17:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be able to see what Stock Charts has to offer and make up your own "lists"
2014-09-11 17:56:13 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: sounds good
2014-09-11 17:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before Decision Point merged with Stock Chats though
2014-09-11 17:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we used to have access to a lot more sector information
2014-09-11 17:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now you have to make up your own
2014-09-11 17:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pain...but it's worth it
2014-09-11 17:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold has now reached its downside objective of the June lows
2014-09-11 17:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it needs to hold here
2014-09-11 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the chart
2014-09-11 17:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the angle of descent is too abrupt for this to happen
2014-09-11 17:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely to keep going
2014-09-11 17:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: health care looks great
2014-09-11 17:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: home builders are compressed
2014-09-11 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a look at a chart of XHB and apply a 20, 50, and 200 day EMA and you'll see what I'm talking about
2014-09-11 17:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 13 day RSI says a bullish resolution though
2014-09-11 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2014-09-11 17:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with Home Construction
2014-09-11 18:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Retail continues to strengthen
2014-09-11 18:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 3% since last week
2014-09-11 18:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do or die for silver now
2014-09-11 18:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term chart is not a friendly one
2014-09-11 18:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold bulls be careful here
2014-09-11 18:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about it
2014-09-11 18:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-09-11 18:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we've doing for the last 2/3 weeks
2014-09-11 18:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's keep an eye on the action in the DAX
2014-09-11 18:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's flat in the AM
2014-09-11 18:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll likely have a ho hum day into the weekend
2014-09-11 18:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-09-11 18:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-09-11 18:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-09-11 18:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-09-11 18:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-09-11 18:05:03 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: Thank you...good night

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