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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-09-11 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-09-11 16:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-09-11 16:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-09-11 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, let's get DP up then and get started
2012-09-11 16:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to minimally "overbought" on Friday
2012-09-11 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finding resistance there yesterday
2012-09-11 16:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO bounced higher today
2012-09-11 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains below last Friday's highs
2012-09-11 16:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2012-09-11 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the mid August peak
2012-09-11 16:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have been pointing to for a while now
2012-09-11 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important for the bulls to move above this same August MCO peak so that prices can not only move to new 2012 highs, but be able to stay above these highs as well
2012-09-11 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day close up price pattern
2012-09-11 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we are now challenging these same highs now
2012-09-11 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the higher MCO helping to push prices to this same resistance level
2012-09-11 16:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2012-09-11 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that we moved to above the August highs there on Friday
2012-09-11 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to see good follow through to the upside
2012-09-11 16:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently with a reading of +362
2012-09-11 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next technical objective for this MCSUM is a test of the +500 level
2012-09-11 16:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect further firmness in market breadth for the rest of the week
2012-09-11 16:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can break above the August MCO highs in the process
2012-09-11 16:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll be in the clear for the next leg higher in the longer term trend
2012-09-11 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite data
2012-09-11 16:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the composite NYSE breadth MCO is still lagging the CO MCO data at this stage
2012-09-11 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have moved above the mid August highs
2012-09-11 16:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-09-11 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that we are back up to the ceiling of our horizontal range
2012-09-11 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we saw with the CO MCO in what it needs for the NYA price pattern to move to new 2012 highs
2012-09-11 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we'll also need a simultaneous break above this same horizontal range on the composite MCSUM
2012-09-11 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are knocking on that door now
2012-09-11 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so within the next couple of days
2012-09-11 16:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is the potential of a rather explosive move in store for the market if the bulls follow through these resistance areas
2012-09-11 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2012-09-11 16:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its not likely at this time that they'll be able to do much but delay the inevitable
2012-09-11 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but stranger things have happened
2012-09-11 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-09-11 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to be under the mid August highs
2012-09-11 16:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern
2012-09-11 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this consistent strength of buying is now really showing up in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-09-11 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the individual postings continue to expand to the upside
2012-09-11 16:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of +142 we are less than a couple of days away from the anticipated challenge of the +250 level
2012-09-11 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, if we break above this level, would allow prices to surge higher with little in the way of friction
2012-09-11 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2012-09-11 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see we have a small point change tonight
2012-09-11 16:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of -11
2012-09-11 16:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2012-09-11 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue above the zero line there with a reading of +13
2012-09-11 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, overall, this basket of stocks can be called neutral
2012-09-11 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both in relation in being in and around their zero lines
2012-09-11 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also because we have the MCO below and the MCSUM above these same demarcation points which suggests corrective activity
2012-09-11 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: indecision...
2012-09-11 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart
2012-09-11 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain above the spring 2012 highs for now
2012-09-11 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unless the buyers start coming in here really soon
2012-09-11 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely going to move back below these same highs and a regroup will be needed before trying to move forward again
2012-09-11 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2012-09-11 16:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we closed today right on the accelerated rising bottoms line connecting the late July and late August lows
2012-09-11 16:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some sort of resolution should be seen in the next 2 trading days
2012-09-11 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems we're setting up for something significant
2012-09-11 16:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh, there was another comment I was going to mention on the NYA chart
2012-09-11 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that we had an outside range day on Monday
2012-09-11 16:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't close lower today as was the expectation
2012-09-11 16:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-09-11 16:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed up almost .7%
2012-09-11 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be a whisper worth listening to
2012-09-11 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX data seems to be stuck in a horizontal range in both breadth MCO and MCSUM's
2012-09-11 16:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and itching to break one way or the other
2012-09-11 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-09-11 16:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NDX
2012-09-11 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are running out of time in being able keep prices at new 2012 highs
2012-09-11 16:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will need to push the envelope near term if there's going to be any chance on extending on what they've been able to accomplish to this point in time
2012-09-11 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this break above the mid August highs in the MCO is also important in helping to extend the time it will potentially take for this current trend higher to run its course
2012-09-11 16:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2012-09-11 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have some signs of our getting past the mid September point
2012-09-11 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're only have the end of September to work with so far
2012-09-11 16:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even that, without confirmation from the market sub sets, might be asking too much as well
2012-09-11 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a lot of things going on behind the scenes right now
2012-09-11 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation with the OEX data
2012-09-11 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the bulls
2012-09-11 16:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the OEX breadth MCSUM's postings are congested here
2012-09-11 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and beginning to roll over
2012-09-11 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that if the bulls don't do something soon to increase the flow of money going into the market
2012-09-11 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably going to be running on fumes after next week passes...start to suffocate
2012-09-11 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and tomorrow is....
2012-09-11 16:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WWW
2012-09-11 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could turn out to be a fun day in and of itself
2012-09-11 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the German court ruling will probably affirm the bailout
2012-09-11 16:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a non story there
2012-09-11 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the FED has a two day meeting this time around?
2012-09-11 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2012-09-11 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...Thursday...with a Bernanke news conference as well
2012-09-11 16:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if either will have any real influence on stock prices right now
2012-09-11 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-09-11 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's a prediction
2012-09-11 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the statement from the FED on Thursday will look remarkably like the ones we saw in March
2012-09-11 16:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and April...
2012-09-11 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and June...
2012-09-11 16:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: word for word
2012-09-11 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who really knows...maybe they'll surprise us?
2012-09-11 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wouldn't expect to see much in the way of statement changes until next year
2012-09-11 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO moved to higher highs today
2012-09-11 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the new 5 year highs today in the Dow itself
2012-09-11 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it's at the highest level now since December of 2007
2012-09-11 16:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 875 points from its all time closing highs
2012-09-11 16:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe I should buy party favors for the chat room in anticipation? 
2012-09-11 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we saw a larger separation of the MCSUM postings in the Dow breadth MCSUM today
2012-09-11 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we cleared above the +250 level
2012-09-11 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oooppps
2012-09-11 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...we're still at +240
2012-09-11 16:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure looked like it on the 1 year chart though
2012-09-11 16:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I stand corrected
2012-09-11 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2012-09-11 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that this MCO moved ever so slightly above its August highs on Friday
2012-09-11 16:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even move exciting
2012-09-11 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we now have the MID breadth MCSUM well above its +500 level now
2012-09-11 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, overall, the MID price pattern has enough behind it to actually stay above its 2012 highs
2012-09-11 16:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have moved above the point of "escape velocity"
2012-09-11 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2012-09-11 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM is now knocking on this same door
2012-09-11 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of +476
2012-09-11 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any break above the +500 level
2012-09-11 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as significant as this might be
2012-09-11 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see the SML breadth MCO move above its mid August highs in order to allow this to happen
2012-09-11 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking again at the price pattern of the SML on the 1 year chart
2012-09-11 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can really see it stretching to the upside now
2012-09-11 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what looks to be an accelerated trend of at least a 45 degree angle
2012-09-11 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have talked about in the past
2012-09-11 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything more acute than 45 degrees tells us that a very strong trend is in process
2012-09-11 16:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not likely to quit any time soon
2012-09-11 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2012-09-11 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trends like this
2012-09-11 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we saw in the 1st quarter of this year
2012-09-11 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will tend to have rounding tops, or consolidations, before they're able to reverse in the other direction
2012-09-11 16:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so just on this alone
2012-09-11 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of our rallying for the next couple of months seems to be pretty high
2012-09-11 16:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're waiting for is technical confirmation (higher MCO highs) so that we can assured that this can indeed take place
2012-09-11 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom above bottom structures are there in the MCO and MCSUM
2012-09-11 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until that changes
2012-09-11 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher for now
2012-09-11 16:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after moving above the August highs on Friday, the TM breadth MCO has a current reading of +29
2012-09-11 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was this same higher high in the MCO that allowed the TM breadth MCSUM to move above July and August horizontal highs seen on the chart
2012-09-11 16:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-09-11 16:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: steady as she goes
2012-09-11 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to get great constructive evidence that the trend remains up for now
2012-09-11 16:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms
2012-09-11 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and breakouts of short term indicators (MCO) in conjunction with intermediate term indicators (MCSUM)
2012-09-11 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is about as constructive as you're going to get in this business
2012-09-11 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any kind of pullback remains a buying op for now
2012-09-11 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you didn't see over the weekend
2012-09-11 16:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the BETS closed at a +55
2012-09-11 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did it break above the spring resistance point
2012-09-11 16:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it did so with the NYA breaking out of its symmetrical triangle
2012-09-11 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together, this would be highly bullish event
2012-09-11 16:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an unless the bears step up immediately
2012-09-11 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will have no power to even control any pauses or consolidations for some time to come
2012-09-11 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this context...for weeks
2012-09-11 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break above the August MCO highs, this could turn into months
2012-09-11 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably into the 1st quarter of next year where we'll see an end to the QE2 stimulus that is currently driving the markets higher
2012-09-11 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the sectors
2012-09-11 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLY breadth MCO
2012-09-11 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any further strength here likely to cause a significant event with the price chart
2012-09-11 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is right now at all time highs
2012-09-11 16:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP has lost its leadership since last week
2012-09-11 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to a neutral status
2012-09-11 16:58:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: is it possible that is coiling?
2012-09-11 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of follow through here is telling when we look at the XLP breadth MCSUM
2012-09-11 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-09-11 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news is that the XLP breadth MCO did move to higher highs last week
2012-09-11 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that confirmed the new price highs
2012-09-11 16:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then the air in the balloon was let out
2012-09-11 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the XLP breadth MCSUM is looking sluggish
2012-09-11 17:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if we had a rally failure
2012-09-11 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news near term
2012-09-11 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we'll likely see another attempt for the bulls before a potential for a price reversal
2012-09-11 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the buying doesn't pick up here near term
2012-09-11 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll be stuck in the trading range for a while given the positions of the MCO and MCSUM
2012-09-11 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not terrible thing really
2012-09-11 17:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the width of the range only 1 point
2012-09-11 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 35/36
2012-09-11 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder what the dividend is?
2012-09-11 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2012-09-11 17:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2.59%
2012-09-11 17:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better than T-Note's
2012-09-11 17:02:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: although the range is large on the MCO, it just looks like it's thrashing in a range-that's why I asked
2012-09-11 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus the opportunity of capital gains
2012-09-11 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: range? yes...coiling, no
2012-09-11 17:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to me
2012-09-11 17:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coiling
2012-09-11 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a triangle
2012-09-11 17:03:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah, thx
2012-09-11 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if EMA's are tightly together
2012-09-11 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ranges tend to be ummmm...
2012-09-11 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a well tune engine sounds like when it idling
2012-09-11 17:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not shifted into drive or reverse
2012-09-11 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're just purring
2012-09-11 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though
2012-09-11 17:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the postings of the latest uptrend on the XLP breadth MCSUM isn't something you would like to share with your best girl
2012-09-11 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or boy
2012-09-11 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-09-11 17:05:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: true,thx
2012-09-11 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just lacks "stimulus"
2012-09-11 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: certainly not like we saw in June, for example
2012-09-11 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan opens up .2%...Korea up .6%
2012-09-11 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking above the declining tops line on Friday
2012-09-11 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and snapping back to the zero line today
2012-09-11 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO moved to higher highs today
2012-09-11 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was pretty much our expectation from last week
2012-09-11 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though our turn here in the MCSUM took place a little under the +500 level
2012-09-11 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...they just want to be consistent
2012-09-11 17:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keep the pressure on
2012-09-11 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for the near term is a challenge of the 75 price level now
2012-09-11 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's another great example of what to expect in the MCSUM after it's made a extreme
2012-09-11 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that after we topped out in August
2012-09-11 17:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was not our sell signal...it was a hold signal
2012-09-11 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we should expect the momentum of the move still to come
2012-09-11 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like when you turn off the rockets on the space shuttle
2012-09-11 17:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this momentum will allow prices to make higher highs
2012-09-11 17:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if the MCSUM is at a lower level
2012-09-11 17:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the actually sell signal, if any, will always come after any momentum is worked off
2012-09-11 17:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the XLE breadth MCSUM has traveled over 2500 points
2012-09-11 17:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't expect any real chance of a price top for another month
2012-09-11 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we are able to move above the recent highs in the MCSUM
2012-09-11 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then extend this time perimeter that much out further
2012-09-11 17:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this case
2012-09-11 17:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the strength of this current move in the XLE
2012-09-11 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: part of which is because of this momentum push
2012-09-11 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the other is that the MCO is now above its zero line
2012-09-11 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where the buyers can now really push prices higher without that much of a problem
2012-09-11 17:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this case
2012-09-11 17:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our fear of a rounding top
2012-09-11 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turned into a springboard pattern
2012-09-11 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: similar to what a diving board looks like just prior to when a diver leaps off the board
2012-09-11 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the board "bends" lower to provide the lift (thrust) necessary to do the dive
2012-09-11 17:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO did move to higher highs
2012-09-11 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the near term breakout in the XLF itself
2012-09-11 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLF breadth MCSUM is also back above the important +500 level now
2012-09-11 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did you notice the leadership in the banks today?
2012-09-11 17:16:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I bought GS calls a couple bucks south of here, really like the sector look
2012-09-11 17:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many were up 2% and more today
2012-09-11 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we talked about last week
2012-09-11 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was likely
2012-09-11 17:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the data
2012-09-11 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that both the financials and tech were likely to lead the market higher without the industrials and materials...at least initially
2012-09-11 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far, so good
2012-09-11 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO broke to new 2 month highs on Friday
2012-09-11 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this confirms the new all time highs in the index
2012-09-11 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI is looking better now
2012-09-11 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is there anything anyone notices that would be called constructive?
2012-09-11 17:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hint: the XLI breadth MCO
2012-09-11 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we move back above the zero line
2012-09-11 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then quickly test the zero line
2012-09-11 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now we've moved to higher highs
2012-09-11 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is constructive evidence of a change in direction
2012-09-11 17:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2012-09-11 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have a confirmed flag in place now on the XLI breadth MCO
2012-09-11 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after any near term back and fill we might see
2012-09-11 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further weakness would be worth a picking a point to scoop up some shares
2012-09-11 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLI breadth MCSUM
2012-09-11 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would appear that we're tracing out a simple "ledge" pattern
2012-09-11 17:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and "ledges are made to fall off of"
2012-09-11 17:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might get a bit of a shake out here in the next day or so...and then we could be good to go
2012-09-11 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is showing good strength as well
2012-09-11 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we see that it found it hard going above the +50 level
2012-09-11 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to do this
2012-09-11 17:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see some sort of texture, or a bottom above a bottom, in place in order to do so
2012-09-11 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but intermediate wise
2012-09-11 17:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the XLI
2012-09-11 17:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we look to be constructing a bottom here
2012-09-11 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much action so far in the XLK
2012-09-11 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLK breadth MCO did bounce off its zero line today
2012-09-11 17:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls remain in control overall
2012-09-11 17:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many people hoping a praying that Apple is topping
2012-09-11 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is keeping the sector soft right now
2012-09-11 17:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we've seen in other product introductions in the past
2012-09-11 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a surprise or two coming out Cupertino tomorrow
2012-09-11 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU is doing as we thought last Thursday
2012-09-11 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a slight hesitation at the -750 level
2012-09-11 17:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with a zero line snapback
2012-09-11 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the final push lower
2012-09-11 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point...still looking for a close around 36
2012-09-11 17:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get that, plus the MCSUM turning higher (the MCO back above the zero line)
2012-09-11 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then back to accumulating again
2012-09-11 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-11 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had good follow though on Friday after Thursday's "blow out" breakout
2012-09-11 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we seem to have a typical back and fill pause that could end as soon as Wednesday
2012-09-11 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2012-09-11 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will need to step up here in the next couple of days or we're likely to find some stiff resistance in and around the 2012 price highs
2012-09-11 17:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so another character moment is probably upon us as it was last week
2012-09-11 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: luckily for this week
2012-09-11 17:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have Wednesday and Thursday chat so we can monitor what may be going on below the surface
2012-09-11 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators
2012-09-11 17:31:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: German vote tomorrow
2012-09-11 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...they'll pass it
2012-09-11 17:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money would not be moving in if it felt otherwise
2012-09-11 17:32:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed, but may be an excuse... eh?
2012-09-11 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bids in the banks today pretty much seals that deal
2012-09-11 17:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money has been moving in since the day after Labor Day
2012-09-11 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there hasn't been any real let up
2012-09-11 17:32:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-09-11 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only shake outs for the weak hands
2012-09-11 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...it is Germany
2012-09-11 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they do have a history of providing surprises
2012-09-11 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rejection would put the currency markets in a tizzy
2012-09-11 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the one thing they don't want right now is any added problems
2012-09-11 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other whisper there
2012-09-11 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the court rejected any further input by the conservative party
2012-09-11 17:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one would think that "they" have a feeling that they're going to lose this one
2012-09-11 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it due to come out at 4:00 am Eastern tomorrow
2012-09-11 17:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait
2012-09-11 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me think
2012-09-11 17:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's 9 hours from here
2012-09-11 17:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that makes it 6 hours from the east coast
2012-09-11 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it comes out at 10:00
2012-09-11 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...that would make it at 4
2012-09-11 17:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2012-09-11 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the daily data looks "cautious"
2012-09-11 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intraday data suggests that long positions are being taken prior to an event
2012-09-11 17:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the court
2012-09-11 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the Fed
2012-09-11 17:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be anything
2012-09-11 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know...the excuse will come
2012-09-11 17:37:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Bet
2012-09-11 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the path of least resistance remains higher
2012-09-11 17:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's are pretty much neutral
2012-09-11 17:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are a little "overbought"
2012-09-11 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's have room to move to the upside
2012-09-11 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a large influx of capital near term would probably give us another pause point
2012-09-11 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .67
2012-09-11 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2012-09-11 17:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN At 1.04
2012-09-11 17:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.14
2012-09-11 17:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: !!
2012-09-11 17:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: highly "oversold"
2012-09-11 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't want to be short here
2012-09-11 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...
2012-09-11 17:39:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the NY trin was weird, huge drop on the last 5 minute candle...
2012-09-11 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also the 21 day and 55 day TRINQ's here
2012-09-11 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both are close to being "oversold" now
2012-09-11 17:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch the secondaries here
2012-09-11 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem they might be leading the charge higher here near term
2012-09-11 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be quite explosive
2012-09-11 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At 1.01
2012-09-11 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2012-09-11 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-09-11 17:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo....
2012-09-11 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we are near or above the highest price levels of the year
2012-09-11 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 2/3 of the market is "oversold"
2012-09-11 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never underestimate the value of a well placed pause to refresh
2012-09-11 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if there is disappointment in the next couple of days
2012-09-11 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is likely to shake it off quite quickly
2012-09-11 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like we saw on Friday's jobs numbers
2012-09-11 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10 dma of the OEX P/C ratio is at its lowest levels of the last 3 years
2012-09-11 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's bullish
2012-09-11 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a volume ratio buy signal last Thursday
2012-09-11 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a breakout to new 52 week highs
2012-09-11 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in some cases
2012-09-11 17:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: multi year highs
2012-09-11 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and OEX unweighted index's now leading the weighted to the upside
2012-09-11 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the advance in prices is for real
2012-09-11 17:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not on the back of some key weighted issues
2012-09-11 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all
2012-09-11 17:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being a bit on the conservative side
2012-09-11 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best bet is to remain on a hold
2012-09-11 17:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't have to be so defensive now...we can have a bullish bias
2012-09-11 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any new breakouts here near term would be enough to go back to buy mode
2012-09-11 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that...the song remains the same
2012-09-11 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-09-11 17:47:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what do you make of that large NY trin drop in only the last 5 minutes?
2012-09-11 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look
2012-09-11 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess it's a wash with the TRINQ...check that one out
2012-09-11 17:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a sell program from the NASDAQ and an immediate buy on the NYSE?
2012-09-11 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were both at around .90 before it happened
2012-09-11 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the higher reading in the TRIN is a buy program
2012-09-11 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MOC
2012-09-11 17:50:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: rotation?
2012-09-11 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: happened at 2 minutes before the close
2012-09-11 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from growth to value...maybe the bank stocks?
2012-09-11 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check BAC
2012-09-11 17:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of volume in the last 5 minutes
2012-09-11 17:52:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, just trying to learn something here-I watch the tick and trin closely
2012-09-11 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of volume in the XLF in the last two minutes
2012-09-11 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my guess...it was a allocation program
2012-09-11 17:52:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2012-09-11 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sold a basket and bought like amount
2012-09-11 17:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since the TRIN moved so high
2012-09-11 17:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's usually because of too much money moving into a low prices stock
2012-09-11 17:53:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah...
2012-09-11 17:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember all the ridiculous numbers we saw in the TRIN during the crash of 2008?
2012-09-11 17:53:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure do
2012-09-11 17:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had so many single digit stocks that it drove the TRIN to ridiculous numbers
2012-09-11 17:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had to put the indicator on the shelf for 6 months
2012-09-11 17:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so my first go to on something like this would be BAC
2012-09-11 17:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it had a nice day...up 5%
2012-09-11 17:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-09-11 17:55:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, good chat
2012-09-11 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my sense here is about the same as last Tuesday
2012-09-11 17:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting close to another statement day
2012-09-11 17:55:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, me too!
2012-09-11 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wouldn't at all be surprising if we see a duplicate of last Thursday
2012-09-11 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many shorts and put buyers rolling over tomorrow
2012-09-11 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add a little short covering on no news from Germany
2012-09-11 17:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know is what I see
2012-09-11 17:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if we have a shake out
2012-09-11 17:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will come and go quickly
2012-09-11 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-09-11 17:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we have another chat on Wednesday
2012-09-11 17:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so everyone have a great day
2012-09-11 17:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are shaking 22 hours from now
2012-09-11 17:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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