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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-08-07 19:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-08-07 19:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-08-07 19:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-08-07 19:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are we surprised at today's decline?
2008-08-07 19:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will take the silence as a no
2008-08-07 19:14:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: market cannot go up every day
2008-08-07 19:14:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, it could, but not very likely
2008-08-07 19:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...and will continue to have problems in putting several up days together for a bit longer
2008-08-07 19:15:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: maybe a long bit, bit longer
2008-08-07 19:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the sun shines bright over the horizon
2008-08-07 19:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it's going to be choppy
2008-08-07 19:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2 steps forward, 1 step back
2008-08-07 19:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's get started
2008-08-07 19:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today and didn't take out the secondary highs mentioned on Tuesday in the process
2008-08-07 19:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would indicate that a challenge of the zero line will now be our near term objective
2008-08-07 19:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where watching the volume side of things will give us some insight on how this test will sort out
2008-08-07 19:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price pattern wise, we have a nice little declining triangle configuration on the chart
2008-08-07 19:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which usually means a breakout to the downside
2008-08-07 19:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the bulls putting up a pretty good fight over the last couple of weeks
2008-08-07 19:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's more than likely that any price pattern breakdown from here, given how close we are to the recent lows, will probably give us our first divergent structure on the MCO
2008-08-07 19:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM now has a reading of -542
2008-08-07 19:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so some hesitation might be seen as we move closer to the magic -500 level
2008-08-07 19:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how much resistance, or more to the point, the degree of pullback from this same -500 level, will give us more information on just how long we should expect this correctional process to last overall
2008-08-07 19:21:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Look those components, both below 0
2008-08-07 19:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and why we continue to be choppy
2008-08-07 19:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correctional...counter trend
2008-08-07 19:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like I said before, it's not going to easy...it will take time to build a foundation
2008-08-07 19:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved lower today which also took out the low seen last Monday
2008-08-07 19:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also indicate that a test of the zero line will be the near term expectation
2008-08-07 19:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott wise, we might be looking at a little 4th wave here
2008-08-07 19:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where a lower price low will generate the divergence seen in wave 5
2008-08-07 19:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with it...panic
2008-08-07 19:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the degree of which...well...it's all relative
2008-08-07 19:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be one or two stocks as opposed to a whole sector, for example
2008-08-07 19:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but for now, the components on both the CO and composite NYSE data remain in bullish crossovers, and with the non confirmation of the components in direct relationship to the MCO's themselves, the best overall interpretation is simple corrective activity...indecision
2008-08-07 19:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved lower today
2008-08-07 19:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still remains with a bottoms above bottoms pattern intact
2008-08-07 19:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...we haven't taken out the last low seen on the chart
2008-08-07 19:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ components, one could muse that we saw a simple snapback to the zero line on the 10%
2008-08-07 19:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where we should see at least another attempt to move into positive territory near term
2008-08-07 19:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM continues to climb nicely with good separation of its individual postings
2008-08-07 19:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have also moved above any "gap resistance" generated by the early July lows
2008-08-07 19:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we'll see how things go as we move closer to the -500 level there as well
2008-08-07 19:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after making a higher high yesterday, the NDX breadth MCO also moved lower today
2008-08-07 19:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in what could be a simple snapback towards the overhead resistance that was just violated
2008-08-07 19:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at the same time, the price pattern moved in unison with this same snapback action
2008-08-07 19:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components, the 10% is in the clear, but the 5% found resistance at its zero line today
2008-08-07 19:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we might see a full snapback back towards the zero line on the 10% component before any kind of reinitiation is seen
2008-08-07 19:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the meantime, the NDX breadth MCSUM did cross above its -500 level today
2008-08-07 19:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so any rally attempt, after any possible near term pause, should show better percentage gains than the broader market averages
2008-08-07 19:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO also moved lower today and left behind what could be a triple top formation
2008-08-07 19:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until the previous lows or highs are taken out, both sides will tend to remain neutral
2008-08-07 19:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it a churn
2008-08-07 19:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of situation with the OEX breadth MCO
2008-08-07 19:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, unlike the SPX, it did take out the recent lows in the process
2008-08-07 19:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking more and more like a zero line challenge is indicated near term...and maybe behind us by Tuesday of next week
2008-08-07 19:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow breadth MCO is already at its zero line now
2008-08-07 19:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with any breakdown from here probably finding initial support at the -25 level (which opens the door for a possible "buy spike")
2008-08-07 19:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a small pullback on the MID breadth MCO today but remains higher than the recent lows
2008-08-07 19:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCSUM is now directly challenging the -500 level
2008-08-07 19:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a hesitation here is warranted
2008-08-07 19:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's really amazing how just about every breadth MCSUM is in and around the -500 level now
2008-08-07 19:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small pullback today on the SML breadth MCO
2008-08-07 19:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the SML breadth MCSUM continues to work higher...now at a level of -220
2008-08-07 19:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice to see that the small caps showing better strength now
2008-08-07 19:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something that's been missing for about 2 years now
2008-08-07 19:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM pattern also shows us this strength in pattern if we compare this current move higher off the lows compared with that from the January lows
2008-08-07 19:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice, smooth expansions higher showing that the bulls remain in control of the current money flowing into this area of the market
2008-08-07 19:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the big challenge above us at the zero line...(obviously)
2008-08-07 19:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM breadth MCO moved lower today, but remains above the recent lows showing that the broader market is holding in there
2008-08-07 19:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's continue with the sector charts
2008-08-07 19:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLY breadth MCO also moved lower today
2008-08-07 19:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and took out the reaction lows of last week in the process
2008-08-07 19:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here again, a zero line test is indicated
2008-08-07 19:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we look at the XLY breadth MCSUM, we can see why we should expect this
2008-08-07 19:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not only are we close to the -750 level, but this same level was previous horizontal support on the pattern itself
2008-08-07 19:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until we can blow through the -750 level, there's just no reason to expose your money to this sector
2008-08-07 19:46:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Maybe a buy spike here too?
2008-08-07 19:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe...
2008-08-07 19:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have the qualities in which Ken Gammage looked for in this area
2008-08-07 19:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a sharp move higher after a "oversold" MCO reading, and then meandering above the zero line for about 2-3 weeks before spiking lower to around the -25 level
2008-08-07 19:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just an idea at this point...but worth keeping an eye on
2008-08-07 19:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll also notice that the price pattern of the XLY is at overhead resistance as well
2008-08-07 19:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this is a logical pause point in the pattern...where a regrouping may be necessary to blow through this same resistance to re-establish this same line as support
2008-08-07 19:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after moving to new highs yesterday, the XLP moved sharply lower today but, overall, this isn't too much of a surprise
2008-08-07 19:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is important here is that this recent spike higher will be enough energy to move the XLP breadth MCSUM back above the zero line very soon
2008-08-07 19:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which also suggests that defensive stocks are once again in vogue
2008-08-07 19:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this tells us further that we're, more than likely, in a larger correctional process
2008-08-07 19:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the 3 year chart, this same spike higher was the highest level seen since DP began charting this data
2008-08-07 19:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a move above 28.25 or so would be a buy signal
2008-08-07 19:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and new all time highs should probably follow very quickly
2008-08-07 19:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking further at the 3 year chart - (this explains it) - the spike higher yesterday in the MCO was the break above the declining tops line on the MCSUM
2008-08-07 19:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...a little hesitation at the zero line...but this is a sector to look to on the long side
2008-08-07 19:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice support at 26.50, so downside risk is minimal
2008-08-07 19:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after finding resistance at the zero line, the XLE breadth MCO moved lower today
2008-08-07 19:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but bottoms above bottoms remain intact
2008-08-07 19:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLE breadth MCSUM is highly "oversold" at the -1100 level
2008-08-07 19:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which tells us two things
2008-08-07 19:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one...that a turn in the direction of money flow is near
2008-08-07 19:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and two...being as "oversold" as it is, I wouldn't exactly jump in with both feet trying to ride this expected turn in money flow
2008-08-07 19:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: selective...yes
2008-08-07 19:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's still a lot of problems still yet to come
2008-08-07 19:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the downside objective given by the XLE MCO back in June has also been met
2008-08-07 19:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...one should look for some firming here...maybe covering shorts would be a good idea
2008-08-07 19:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: your own due diligence will guide you
2008-08-07 19:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLF breadth MCO moved back down to the zero line today
2008-08-07 19:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where we saw a previous bounce
2008-08-07 20:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLF breadth MCSUM is also within the area of "hump" resistance seen at the end of June
2008-08-07 20:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, some sort of hesitation shouldn't be that surprising
2008-08-07 20:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the current area is where traders attempted to hold the fort previously only to see it wash away with the early summer fall out
2008-08-07 20:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing we need to remember here is that this MCSUM went to ridiculous "oversold" levels before turning up
2008-08-07 20:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would indicate that the lows seen in July should be very solid
2008-08-07 20:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where only a retest might be seen, but even then, it might only be of the intraday variety
2008-08-07 20:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here you can see how important it is for this MCSUM to move above the -500 level
2008-08-07 20:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is the upper limit of the previous range seen
2008-08-07 20:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...a move above the -1000 level would be more in the pick and choose area
2008-08-07 20:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where a move above the -500 level would be more indicative of a broader sector rally in progress in relieving this same "oversold" reading seen last month
2008-08-07 20:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so here...for a longer term trade...a nibble here and there might not be a bad idea to contemplate
2008-08-07 20:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially above the 22.50 level
2008-08-07 20:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like the XLP, the XLV breadth MCO also spiked higher in the last day or so
2008-08-07 20:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing that the defensive sectors continue to see good money flow right now
2008-08-07 20:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you also want to compare the current XLV breadth MCSUM pattern with the spring advance
2008-08-07 20:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unlike then, the move higher has been one of conviction
2008-08-07 20:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with this MCSUM already above its zero line, seems to be the leading sector right now
2008-08-07 20:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term, strong resistance lies just above current levels at around the +400 level
2008-08-07 20:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and above that, the +500 level, where if we're able to move above this, should give the all clear for this sector in its continuation of higher highs and higher lows
2008-08-07 20:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: AKA...an uptrend will be in progress
2008-08-07 20:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pretty amazing how close to the all time highs we are on the XLV
2008-08-07 20:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice basing structure on the price pattern as well
2008-08-07 20:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me see what it projects to
2008-08-07 20:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: - the all time highs - 36
2008-08-07 20:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLI breadth MCO moved lower today after making a higher spike high
2008-08-07 20:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with yesterday's closing price showing a rally failure or false start in progress
2008-08-07 20:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we look at the XLI breadth MCSUM, the reason why we had no follow through is pretty clear
2008-08-07 20:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that this MCSUM remains below its -500 level
2008-08-07 20:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to move against the tide when the tide hasn't fully let up
2008-08-07 20:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLB breadth MCO shows a failure of conviction after having bounced off its zero line and promptly moving below it today
2008-08-07 20:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in the process, we now have the possibility of bull divergence in place
2008-08-07 20:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice here too how all of this is happening with the XLB breadth MCSUM just below the -500 level
2008-08-07 20:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one things for sure...with just about all of the MCSUM's in sync here, we had a classic wash out - purge - whatever you want to call it...and we are now in total sync
2008-08-07 20:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the defensive sectors leading the way out of what is looking more and more like a 4 year low
2008-08-07 20:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my instinct is telling me that by the middle of September that we should have a better grasp on what economic cycles are doing here... 9 month, 4 year...these two primarily
2008-08-07 20:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the evidence right now is showing 4 year characteristics, but on the other hand, the moves up from the July lows are showing some effort at important MCSUM levels
2008-08-07 20:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be the 9 month in play
2008-08-07 20:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is due in September...around the week of 9/8
2008-08-07 20:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (shrug) who really knows right now...but there are definite cross currents going on right now
2008-08-07 20:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLK breadth MCO also moved to higher highs yesterday
2008-08-07 20:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and has so far only snapback to what was overhead resistance
2008-08-07 20:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the XLK breadth MCSUM
2008-08-07 20:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here we're approaching another one of those hurdle numbers - the -250 level
2008-08-07 20:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the price pattern itself, you will notice a textbook "rounding bottom" formation
2008-08-07 20:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very much like the one we saw in the first quarter of this year but smaller...maybe an echo?
2008-08-07 20:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components
2008-08-07 20:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both are above their zero line
2008-08-07 20:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so here we're on a short term buy signal
2008-08-07 20:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: leaving behind a much higher MCSUM low than the previous one seen last January while we tested price level support at the 22 level
2008-08-07 20:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: worth a nibble here and there
2008-08-07 20:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the +550 level on the MCSUM putting us in the clear
2008-08-07 20:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until then, a run back up to the 25 price level will probably be seen
2008-08-07 20:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if this does occur, it's probably a very good bet that the MCSUM will be near or at this same +550 level...call it a set up
2008-08-07 20:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a little pull back to keep the majority from catching on...
2008-08-07 20:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then...we'll see
2008-08-07 20:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLU breadth MCO is struggling to get back above its zero line, and you can see here in several ways that the bulls have control of things
2008-08-07 20:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first is with the meandering pattern lower in the MCO from May until July
2008-08-07 20:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing that the bears never really had total control of things
2008-08-07 20:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since this bottom, the moves higher have had better amplitudes to their structure
2008-08-07 20:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: including a possible double divergent structure
2008-08-07 20:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the XLU breadth MCSUM, here too, a higher low is being created at the 37 price level
2008-08-07 20:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in the last week, although the direction of the MCSUM is lower, the postings are very congested
2008-08-07 20:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as to squeezing out the remaining sellers
2008-08-07 20:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since one could consider this sector as that of being defensive in nature
2008-08-07 20:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that interest rates seem to be stable, if not moving lower again
2008-08-07 20:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: along with energy prices probably close to a near term bottom
2008-08-07 20:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might be worth a look see
2008-08-07 20:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: downside risk is just below the intraday spike lows of January
2008-08-07 20:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so risk/reward is there
2008-08-07 20:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: plus, you get a nice dividend while you wait
2008-08-07 20:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm just going to scan the volume McClellan's - one moment
2008-08-07 20:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NYSE volume MCSUM's, you will note that the current figures are just below the levels in which our previous divergent structures found their bottoms
2008-08-07 20:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a key area for the bulls to over come
2008-08-07 20:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which also means it's a key area for the bears to hold
2008-08-07 20:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so...sideways action
2008-08-07 20:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or some hesitation wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities
2008-08-07 20:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2008-08-07 20:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this same divergent low of March was only tested
2008-08-07 20:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if this MCSUM can continue to show good post expansion (after moving above the -500 level) this would add to the idea that the rip tide of money seen going out may be making a return
2008-08-07 20:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of situation with the NDX volume MCSUM
2008-08-07 20:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you'll notice here that the secondaries continue to attract cash flow better than the NYSE right now
2008-08-07 20:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know this because that the COMPX and NDX are 250 data points higher than the NYSE MCSUM's
2008-08-07 20:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with further evidence of the price charts themselves...the NYSE stocks moved to lower lows, where the secondaries did not
2008-08-07 20:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the rest of the volume index MCSUM's, and one doesn't have to get any further in finding the reasons why we not only continue to be choppy, but there's been very little to show for the reflex rally
2008-08-07 20:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of these MCSUM's are not only trailing their breadth cousins, but remain more "oversold"
2008-08-07 20:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to move a market higher when when you're only getting 50 octane in an 89 octane engine
2008-08-07 20:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the volume XLP MCSUM is leading breadth to the upside
2008-08-07 20:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a good buy candidate there
2008-08-07 20:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very good, in fact
2008-08-07 20:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as the XLP volume MCO also went to 52 week highs yesterday as well
2008-08-07 20:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice conviction...and it's broadly based
2008-08-07 20:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also note the where this MCO spike higher on the XLP took place...right above solid horizontal resistance
2008-08-07 20:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the volume XLE MCSUM is just as washed out as breadth is
2008-08-07 20:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone notice the spanking natural gas has taken lately? whew!
2008-08-07 20:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLF volume MCSUM is still digging out of its hole
2008-08-07 20:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow
2008-08-07 20:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: -2500!!!
2008-08-07 20:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you've go to be kidding
2008-08-07 20:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-07 20:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tell you a secret?
2008-08-07 20:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the longer term declining tops line on the XLF volume MCSUM is broken...buy
2008-08-07 20:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: solid bottom...for many years
2008-08-07 20:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you only see levels of -2000 or more during PRIMARY bear market lows
2008-08-07 20:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: primary meaning...decades
2008-08-07 20:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...glad I'm taking the time to look over the sector data
2008-08-07 20:49:58 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: yes, much appreciated, Dave
2008-08-07 20:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLV volume MCSUM and MCO are confirming the breadth side of the aisle
2008-08-07 20:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: defensive stocks are where you want to be
2008-08-07 20:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice how the volume XLV MCSUM gapped above the +250 level
2008-08-07 20:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remembering that this same level that usually acts as bear market resistance
2008-08-07 20:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a divergent MCSUM structure here as well
2008-08-07 20:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice
2008-08-07 20:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLI volume data looks to be rolling over
2008-08-07 20:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if this something like a 4 year low, the industrial sector will be one of the last sectors to participate in an uptrend
2008-08-07 20:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however...the XLI does include the Transportation stocks
2008-08-07 20:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might turn into a nice longer term play...the transports start it, the industrials finish it
2008-08-07 20:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look how the XLB volume MCSUM is finding it difficult to move above the -250 level
2008-08-07 20:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the advance from the lows has been very choppy
2008-08-07 20:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better fish to fry for now
2008-08-07 20:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially since the commodity area is probably in a correction for another 4 or 5 months
2008-08-07 20:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if wasn't for the XLK volume MCSUM as low as it is, we would probably be seeing better action in the price chart
2008-08-07 20:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: love that rounding bottom formation - pretty
2008-08-07 20:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLU volume MCSUM is trying to hold support at the -750 level
2008-08-07 20:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the same kind of wringing out process going on
2008-08-07 20:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: SPX STVO and VTO's are neutral
2008-08-07 20:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who's going to take control?
2008-08-07 20:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the others are mixed...
2008-08-07 21:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the sector volume oscillator charts are mixed as well...with lots of neutral readings
2008-08-07 21:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.39
2008-08-07 21:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: open 10 at 1.00
2008-08-07 21:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the trading range is so large right now - point wise
2008-08-07 21:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.01
2008-08-07 21:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .93
2008-08-07 21:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.09
2008-08-07 21:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .95
2008-08-07 21:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a shake out could happen at any time
2008-08-07 21:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...
2008-08-07 21:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the pieces of the puzzle are coming together
2008-08-07 21:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still, it's a BIG puzzle
2008-08-07 21:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the defensive sectors are attracting money flow
2008-08-07 21:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and after what we've seen where everything was being trashed
2008-08-07 21:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is showing traders are coming back to work
2008-08-07 21:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-08-07 21:04:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, the words hesitation and resistance have come up a lot tonite
2008-08-07 21:04:34 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: excellent coverage of the market
2008-08-07 21:04:47 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: I don't like the rising price on the Naz with the declining MCO tops-should I?
2008-08-07 21:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term it would call for a pause
2008-08-07 21:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the rounding bottom is a pretty powerful pattern
2008-08-07 21:05:24 [Message] gman -> Main Room: good, broad review tonight. Thanks Dave
2008-08-07 21:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the internals are showing a great amount of support
2008-08-07 21:05:28 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: thx, and, agreed
2008-08-07 21:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one step at a time
2008-08-07 21:05:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Insightful analysis tonite.....thanks
2008-08-07 21:05:54 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Yes, thx much, great work!
2008-08-07 21:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to take off
2008-08-07 21:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2008-08-07 21:06:06 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: thanks fib
2008-08-07 21:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll meet up again on Tuesday
2008-08-07 21:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-07 21:06:20 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: good night



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