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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-08-06 16:00:05 fib1618: good day
2015-08-06 16:00:08 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-08-06 16:01:53 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-08-06 16:04:31 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get going
2015-08-06 16:05:00 fib1618: after getting our reversal price bar on Wednesday
2015-08-06 16:05:11 fib1618: the market followed through to the downside today
2015-08-06 16:05:18 fib1618: but closed at the mid point of the range
2015-08-06 16:05:40 fib1618: which also happens to be above the intraday lows of Monday
2015-08-06 16:05:44 fib1618: because of this
2015-08-06 16:06:10 fib1618: we should see a down close on Friday
2015-08-06 16:06:35 fib1618: but it may only be minimal as we continue to move into the apex of a symmetrical triangle on the NYA
2015-08-06 16:06:47 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:07:10 fib1618: and we see that we closed back below the zero line with a -5 reading
2015-08-06 16:07:34 fib1618: and settled slightly above the lows made on Tuesday
2015-08-06 16:07:57 fib1618: this would instruct us that the market remains congested near term
2015-08-06 16:08:17 fib1618: with the hopes that maybe the jobs numbers tomorrow might tip the scales to one side or the other
2015-08-06 16:08:56 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:09:03 fib1618: and here we moved back below the zero line today
2015-08-06 16:09:38 fib1618: providing us with a lower posting on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-08-06 16:09:45 fib1618: as we talked about on Wednesday
2015-08-06 16:10:08 fib1618: if the buyers can't find enough strength to close the MCSUM gap resistance area
2015-08-06 16:10:39 fib1618: we could be looking at some sort of hard sell off in the next day or two
2015-08-06 16:10:54 fib1618: so any further weakness on Friday could be the trigger for such an event
2015-08-06 16:11:11 fib1618: which would likely yield to a better bottoming sequence for the internals
2015-08-06 16:11:33 fib1618: as we expected over the last couple of days
2015-08-06 16:11:46 fib1618: the NASDAQ Composite moved sharply lower today
2015-08-06 16:11:56 fib1618: being down 1.62%
2015-08-06 16:12:29 fib1618: we also moved below the reaction lows of Monday as well on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:12:57 fib1618: so with our finding resistance at the MCO zero line on Wednesday
2015-08-06 16:13:26 fib1618: it's likely now that prices are either doing an Elliott 3rd or "C" wave down
2015-08-06 16:13:36 fib1618: so regardless of the actually labeling
2015-08-06 16:13:47 fib1618: this is a wave pattern structure in the 3rd position
2015-08-06 16:14:23 fib1618: and we usually see exaggerated price sequences during these processes
2015-08-06 16:14:47 fib1618: let me check for a downside target here
2015-08-06 16:15:37 fib1618: equality is at 4969
2015-08-06 16:16:22 fib1618: which would be our target area anyway based on the NASDAQ breadth MCO...the price lows of July
2015-08-06 16:16:32 fib1618: so everything seems to be falling into place now
2015-08-06 16:17:24 fib1618: doing some Fibonacci calculations here
2015-08-06 16:17:48 fib1618: and it looks like we're doing an Elliott irregular flat...this would be wave "C"
2015-08-06 16:17:57 fib1618: the numbers are
2015-08-06 16:18:39 fib1618: "A" = from the June high to the July low at 250 points
2015-08-06 16:19:19 fib1618: 250 x 1.236 = 309
2015-08-06 16:19:43 fib1618: 309 + 4910 = 5219 for wave "B"
2015-08-06 16:19:58 fib1618: the highs of July were 5218.86
2015-08-06 16:20:21 fib1618: wave "C" would be 250 x 1.618 = 404.50
2015-08-06 16:20:39 fib1618: 5219 - 404 = 4815
2015-08-06 16:21:00 fib1618: and that would take us back to the March lows
2015-08-06 16:21:05 fib1618: which, when we look at the majors
2015-08-06 16:21:17 fib1618: are the trading range lows
2015-08-06 16:21:23 fib1618: so far
2015-08-06 16:21:25 fib1618: MCO wise
2015-08-06 16:21:52 fib1618: downside target is 4850
2015-08-06 16:22:06 fib1618: so maybe a 5th wave blow off of "C" intraday?
2015-08-06 16:22:16 fib1618: oh...the numbers here are close only basis
2015-08-06 16:22:28 fib1618: seems to be working so far
2015-08-06 16:22:35 fib1618: so we'll see how it all plays out
2015-08-06 16:22:41 unc1998 G436: what leads you to see an irregular flat here?
2015-08-06 16:22:59 fib1618: the MCO positions
2015-08-06 16:23:04 fib1618: as well as the MCSUM's
2015-08-06 16:23:24 fib1618: the amplitude of today's decline is more in keeping to a 3rd wave
2015-08-06 16:23:53 fib1618: the advance of July had no general market confirmation to new highs
2015-08-06 16:24:18 fib1618: and as we know...one of the main technical characteristics of an Elliott "B" wave is that they "smell funny"
2015-08-06 16:24:36 fib1618: being out of sync during that time would meet that expectation
2015-08-06 16:24:42 unc1998 G436: and not likely to make lower lows in the mco
2015-08-06 16:24:49 fib1618: correct
2015-08-06 16:24:57 fib1618: the MCO will diverge with 5 of "C"
2015-08-06 16:25:02 fib1618: as well as 3 of "C" (when compared with wave "A")
2015-08-06 16:25:17 unc1998 G436: gotcha
2015-08-06 16:25:32 fib1618: we'll know if this is the  right call with wave 4 of "C"
2015-08-06 16:25:50 fib1618: as wave 4 will take out the momentum peak of wave 2 of "C"
2015-08-06 16:25:54 fib1618: which was at the MCO zero line
2015-08-06 16:26:16 fib1618: and then one more divergent purge and it would be done
2015-08-06 16:26:17 fib1618: now...
2015-08-06 16:26:21 fib1618: if this is NOT corrective
2015-08-06 16:26:32 fib1618: and this is a larger wave 3 from the July peak
2015-08-06 16:26:43 fib1618: then we should see a lower low in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:27:07 fib1618: as we see the greatest amount of extremes both in breadth and volume at the center point of an impulsive 3rd wave
2015-08-06 16:27:14 fib1618: wave 5 diverges with 3
2015-08-06 16:27:21 fib1618: as wave "C" diverges with wave "A"
2015-08-06 16:27:46 fib1618: so we have a good plan here using the foundational stuff provided from Elliott analysis
2015-08-06 16:27:52 fib1618: just a matter how it plays out
2015-08-06 16:28:17 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:28:26 fib1618: and here we were not able to hold above the zero line today
2015-08-06 16:28:34 fib1618: so...we might bounce tomorrow in a snapback
2015-08-06 16:28:38 fib1618: and if we do
2015-08-06 16:28:53 fib1618: it will then be important for this MCO to immediately take out yesterday's peak
2015-08-06 16:28:56 fib1618: if not
2015-08-06 16:29:13 fib1618: then we'll see an exhaustive move to the downside
2015-08-06 16:29:25 fib1618: which would co-ordinate with wave 3 of "C"
2015-08-06 16:29:41 fib1618: giving additional credence to this idea
2015-08-06 16:29:55 fib1618: is where the NDX breadth MCSUM is in relation to its zero line
2015-08-06 16:30:04 fib1618: and currently finding resistance at this level
2015-08-06 16:30:17 fib1618: something of which we were to be on guard toward last Tuesday
2015-08-06 16:30:59 fib1618: curious to see What the Fib levels are playing out on the NDX...give me a moment
2015-08-06 16:31:25 fib1618: wave A = 198 points
2015-08-06 16:31:55 fib1618: wave B = 198 x 1.382
2015-08-06 16:32:21 fib1618: or 269.50
2015-08-06 16:32:34 fib1618: 269.50 + 4359 = 4628
2015-08-06 16:33:04 fib1618: the highs for July were 4679
2015-08-06 16:33:12 fib1618: so a bit of a throw over there
2015-08-06 16:33:19 fib1618: let's keep going
2015-08-06 16:33:22 fib1618: one moment
2015-08-06 16:34:35 fib1618: 198 x 1.618 = 320
2015-08-06 16:34:58 fib1618: and that would equal 4358
2015-08-06 16:35:05 fib1618: or a test of the lows
2015-08-06 16:35:18 fib1618: not real inspiring
2015-08-06 16:35:45 fib1618: so we'll work with the broader indicator of the NASDAQ for now
2015-08-06 16:36:11 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO also moved lower today
2015-08-06 16:36:18 fib1618: but finished with a reading of +2
2015-08-06 16:36:40 fib1618: this puts the SPX breadth MCSUM also at its zero line with a reading of -2
2015-08-06 16:36:57 fib1618: so we're as balanced here as well as we can be
2015-08-06 16:37:28 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2015-08-06 16:37:52 fib1618: and we see that the intraday lows touched the rising trendline connecting the July lows
2015-08-06 16:38:11 fib1618: and wound up closing toward the lower end of the range
2015-08-06 16:38:18 fib1618: not a lot of hope there
2015-08-06 16:38:39 fib1618: but the buyers are trying their to best in putting a positive spin on the situation
2015-08-06 16:38:51 fib1618: ah oh
2015-08-06 16:38:56 fib1618: lower low in the OEX breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:39:19 fib1618: and that should be enough to push the OEX breadth MCSUM down and through its zero line
2015-08-06 16:39:30 fib1618: currently with a reading of +37
2015-08-06 16:39:57 fib1618: so it wouldn't take too much to push this index over the edge near term
2015-08-06 16:40:41 fib1618: also had a lower low today on the Dow breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:40:55 fib1618: as prices broke below last week's support
2015-08-06 16:41:02 unc1998 G436: bought some spy puts on the spike up yesterday....couldn't resist
2015-08-06 16:41:14 fib1618: looks like the next stop there is our 17,100 target
2015-08-06 16:41:18 fib1618: [smile]
2015-08-06 16:41:25 fib1618: fingers crossed
2015-08-06 16:41:33 fib1618: so far...it looks like a good entry
2015-08-06 16:41:36 unc1998 G436: intraday tick looked abysmal
2015-08-06 16:41:44 fib1618: the only thing that could happen...yes, I know
2015-08-06 16:41:59 fib1618: is that we get a quick knee jerk reaction higher at the open
2015-08-06 16:42:05 fib1618: but like saw yesterday
2015-08-06 16:42:13 fib1618: the market is getting heavier now
2015-08-06 16:42:23 fib1618: and it's prone to a near term collapse of some sort
2015-08-06 16:42:43 fib1618: so if we get it on Friday, don't be a pig [wink]
2015-08-06 16:42:56 fib1618: hit and run
2015-08-06 16:43:01 unc1998 G436: won't be a problem lol
2015-08-06 16:43:16 fib1618: always good to bank near term profits until a trend develops
2015-08-06 16:43:37 fib1618: with the plan of having your money working continuously for you
2015-08-06 16:43:51 fib1618: back to the Dow
2015-08-06 16:43:59 fib1618: and we see that with today's lower low in the MCO
2015-08-06 16:44:21 fib1618: this has now pushed the Dow breadth MCSUM below the lows of last Tuesday
2015-08-06 16:44:37 fib1618: so we could see a bit of a cascading affect hit this index near term
2015-08-06 16:44:55 fib1618: having found resistance at the -250 level
2015-08-06 16:45:10 fib1618: and a challenge of the recent lows at -500 in store
2015-08-06 16:45:29 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today
2015-08-06 16:45:32 fib1618: not only that
2015-08-06 16:45:47 fib1618: it also took out the reaction lows of Tuesday
2015-08-06 16:45:53 fib1618: not a good omen (again) near term
2015-08-06 16:46:31 fib1618: with market weakness toward the 1430 level not out of the question now
2015-08-06 16:46:58 fib1618: we also have a problem with the SML breadth MCO
2015-08-06 16:47:04 fib1618: which found zero line resistance today
2015-08-06 16:47:13 fib1618: and its now just below the lows of Tuesday
2015-08-06 16:47:46 fib1618: noting here that the 700 price target of a couple of weeks ago acted as intraday support today
2015-08-06 16:48:14 fib1618: so any breakdown below this level in the next couple days could accelerate the downside momentum in this index
2015-08-06 16:48:34 fib1618: chart wise
2015-08-06 16:48:47 fib1618: the SML price structure is highly vulnerable to collapse here
2015-08-06 16:49:22 fib1618: as we had a hard reversal higher on the 28th
2015-08-06 16:49:35 fib1618: which petered out with another reversal bar
2015-08-06 16:49:39 fib1618: no follow through
2015-08-06 16:49:57 fib1618: so another capitulation is necessary to cleanse the sequence
2015-08-06 16:50:17 fib1618: for the bulls
2015-08-06 16:50:31 fib1618: they want to see that we don't come close to the lows of last week in the MCO
2015-08-06 16:50:48 fib1618: let's say...keeping the MCO reading at -60 or above
2015-08-06 16:51:05 fib1618: and that should give us support at the -500 level on the MCSUM
2015-08-06 16:51:09 fib1618: anything more than that
2015-08-06 16:51:28 fib1618: and that should clear the way toward the 670 level
2015-08-06 16:51:52 fib1618: and not a good technical day for the TM
2015-08-06 16:51:59 fib1618: as the TM breadth MCO moved to a lower low
2015-08-06 16:52:01 fib1618: as well as
2015-08-06 16:52:04 fib1618: the TM breadth MCSUM
2015-08-06 16:52:44 fib1618: this would indicate that the odds have now increased that a downside break out of the symmetrical triangle configuration have risen from 60% on Tuesday to 80% going into Friday
2015-08-06 16:52:57 fib1618: not bad odds...if they work out [smile]
2015-08-06 16:53:09 fib1618: so...
2015-08-06 16:53:21 fib1618: it would appear that we are looking over a cliff near term
2015-08-06 16:53:46 fib1618: and whether we fall off...or back away...we should know by our next session on Tuesday
2015-08-06 16:53:48 fib1618: for now
2015-08-06 16:54:14 fib1618: our expectation of a challenge of the March lows is pretty much a given
2015-08-06 16:54:39 fib1618: with the odds increasing that a challenge of the January lows would also be a reasonable expectation
2015-08-06 16:54:59 fib1618: taking a quick view of the volume McClellan's
2015-08-06 16:55:47 fib1618: and we see that both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's had an upward change today of less than 4 points for each
2015-08-06 16:56:14 fib1618: so it would appear that some larger sums of capital moved into highly weighted high cap issues today
2015-08-06 16:56:21 fib1618: while the rest of the market was shunned
2015-08-06 16:56:35 fib1618: with both of these MCO's at their zero lines now
2015-08-06 16:56:40 fib1618: one side is going to take control
2015-08-06 16:57:06 fib1618: and with MCO components on each still quite a ways away from their zero lines
2015-08-06 16:57:38 fib1618: the weight of this evidence suggests a near term price decay
2015-08-06 16:57:41 fib1618: or selling
2015-08-06 16:58:19 fib1618: the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's are echoing their breadth cousins here to the downside
2015-08-06 16:58:30 fib1618: with the NDX volume MCO leading breadth in this same direction
2015-08-06 16:58:40 fib1618: not a good position to be in if you're long the market here
2015-08-06 16:59:00 fib1618: as money is finding other areas of investment at this time
2015-08-06 16:59:19 fib1618: lower low as well in the SPX volume MCO
2015-08-06 16:59:27 fib1618: and leading the SPX breadth MCO to the downside
2015-08-06 16:59:58 fib1618: the OEX and Dow volume MCO's are also leading lower
2015-08-06 17:00:07 fib1618: and as volume goes, so goes the weighted averages
2015-08-06 17:00:30 fib1618: the MID volume MCO is flat
2015-08-06 17:00:39 fib1618: the SML volume MCO is leading lower
2015-08-06 17:00:54 fib1618: as is the TM volume MCO after it just found snapback resistance at the zero line on Wednesday
2015-08-06 17:01:13 fib1618: so not a lot of good news here for the longs
2015-08-06 17:01:24 fib1618: and whether it's the data in the morning
2015-08-06 17:01:27 fib1618: or something else
2015-08-06 17:01:37 fib1618: the market is likely to sag now even before the open
2015-08-06 17:02:16 fib1618: major selling noted with the CVI's today
2015-08-06 17:02:29 fib1618: with sharp reversals from positive to negative territory
2015-08-06 17:02:38 fib1618: that's our lead dog here
2015-08-06 17:03:25 fib1618: with the STVO's also showing weakness in their structures from their minimally "overbought" positions of the last two days
2015-08-06 17:03:29 fib1618: not looking good here
2015-08-06 17:03:45 fib1618: oh man
2015-08-06 17:03:51 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .75
2015-08-06 17:03:54 fib1618: short covering
2015-08-06 17:04:07 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2015-08-06 17:04:36 fib1618: but look at the today's amplitude in the 21 day SMA of the TRIN
2015-08-06 17:04:56 fib1618: showing a lot of buying/short covering
2015-08-06 17:05:18 fib1618: looks like they have been conditioned to think that bad news is good news on Friday?
2015-08-06 17:05:22 fib1618: maybe not this time
2015-08-06 17:05:47 fib1618: we always have to be on guard on what the market will do to keep the majority guessing
2015-08-06 17:06:04 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.18
2015-08-06 17:06:14 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2015-08-06 17:06:15 fib1618: better
2015-08-06 17:06:30 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.17
2015-08-06 17:06:45 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.02
2015-08-06 17:06:47 fib1618: so...
2015-08-06 17:07:01 fib1618: it would seem that we're setting up for an "excusable" sell off
2015-08-06 17:07:37 fib1618: again...whether it's economic or geopolitically based doesn't matter as it does that it will likely be accompanied by something news related
2015-08-06 17:07:44 fib1618: but at this point
2015-08-06 17:07:54 fib1618: money is indicating that a sell off is imminent
2015-08-06 17:08:00 fib1618: and we'll have to see how far it will take us
2015-08-06 17:08:03 fib1618: and hopefully
2015-08-06 17:08:10 fib1618: with our current blueprint
2015-08-06 17:08:26 fib1618: a bottoming process will be maintained next week
2015-08-06 17:08:45 fib1618: that will extend into the beginning of September...and likely into the 3 week of next month
2015-08-06 17:09:11 fib1618: let me check the BETS and then we'll look around to see what sectors are doing
2015-08-06 17:09:49 fib1618: lower lows in the NAAD line today...not a good thing
2015-08-06 17:10:25 fib1618: NAUD found resistance at the 19 day EMA (10% Trend) today
2015-08-06 17:10:37 fib1618: so did the NYAD line
2015-08-06 17:11:09 fib1618: the NYAD looks like it's prime and ready to break below the 200 day EMA (1% Trend) as soon as tomorrow
2015-08-06 17:11:35 fib1618: need to count again
2015-08-06 17:11:37 fib1618: one sec
2015-08-06 17:12:23 fib1618: -60
2015-08-06 17:12:44 fib1618: and "this close" to an all out sell (below -65)
2015-08-06 17:13:07 unc1998 G436: just curious...what is the lowest BETS reading you have ever seen?
2015-08-06 17:13:12 fib1618: we have two cumulative charts that could push this to -70 on Friday
2015-08-06 17:13:18 fib1618: I think it was -85
2015-08-06 17:13:25 fib1618: one sec
2015-08-06 17:13:27 fib1618: I'll check
2015-08-06 17:13:33 fib1618: I have the spreadsheet here
2015-08-06 17:13:39 unc1998 G436: thanks
2015-08-06 17:14:12 fib1618: since March of 2004
2015-08-06 17:14:32 fib1618: we have had 5 readings of -80
2015-08-06 17:14:38 fib1618: that has been the lowest
2015-08-06 17:14:42 fib1618: they happened on...
2015-08-06 17:14:51 fib1618: 3/20/2008
2015-08-06 17:15:01 fib1618: 7/3/2008
2015-08-06 17:15:13 fib1618: 10/10/2008
2015-08-06 17:15:16 fib1618: 11/21/2008
2015-08-06 17:15:29 fib1618: 3/6/2009
2015-08-06 17:15:37 fib1618: so during the bear market
2015-08-06 17:16:02 unc1998 G436: ominous dates, except for the last one
2015-08-06 17:16:03 fib1618: the lowest level since that time was a -65
2015-08-06 17:16:21 fib1618: and that occurred on 11/25/2011
2015-08-06 17:16:29 fib1618: so...
2015-08-06 17:16:44 fib1618: any break here of the 2011 lows could be something worth noting
2015-08-06 17:17:45 fib1618: this is the lowest level since then
2015-08-06 17:18:13 fib1618: and it would be significant given that we're near the highs
2015-08-06 17:18:14 fib1618: again
2015-08-06 17:18:25 fib1618: our experience with the BETS only covers 11 years
2015-08-06 17:18:40 fib1618: and during the majority of that time we have either been black or white
2015-08-06 17:18:48 fib1618: nothing really in the grey area
2015-08-06 17:18:51 fib1618: so...
2015-08-06 17:18:59 fib1618: one thought is that a low reading here
2015-08-06 17:19:05 fib1618: as we're near the highs
2015-08-06 17:19:27 fib1618: is that it could suggest and very important longer term price low
2015-08-06 17:19:41 fib1618: on the other hand
2015-08-06 17:19:56 fib1618: the market crashed only after the BETS was below the -65 level
2015-08-06 17:19:58 fib1618: and more to the point
2015-08-06 17:20:05 fib1618: at the -80 level in 2008
2015-08-06 17:20:27 fib1618: in fact
2015-08-06 17:20:37 fib1618: the market peaking out on 5/2/2008 on a weekly basis
2015-08-06 17:20:56 fib1618: and we had our first -80 reading two months before
2015-08-06 17:21:14 fib1618: so it's something that needs our respect for what it may imply
2015-08-06 17:21:38 unc1998 G436: we definitely have an interesting few months coming up
2015-08-06 17:21:44 fib1618: I would say so
2015-08-06 17:22:21 fib1618: with gold continuing to suggest contraction in the money flow aggregate
2015-08-06 17:22:46 fib1618: we could be looking at the patient as suffocating when it continues to need intensive care
2015-08-06 17:23:07 fib1618: bottom line though
2015-08-06 17:23:14 fib1618: is that for the first time since 2011
2015-08-06 17:23:43 fib1618: the internal characteristics here are in a position to where an accident can happen at anytime if traders aren't careful
2015-08-06 17:23:59 fib1618: or start to "overreact"
2015-08-06 17:24:07 fib1618: which reminds me
2015-08-06 17:24:12 fib1618: I wanted to look at the VIX
2015-08-06 17:24:43 fib1618: if you look at the 9 month chart there
2015-08-06 17:25:01 fib1618: you will see that we again turned north right at the 12/13 level
2015-08-06 17:25:19 fib1618: 8 times now
2015-08-06 17:25:31 fib1618: if history is any indication there
2015-08-06 17:25:35 fib1618: we should have a sell off
2015-08-06 17:25:56 unc1998 G436: 20 is a ways off from here
2015-08-06 17:26:07 fib1618: just don't know how significant using only this information though
2015-08-06 17:26:19 fib1618: I don't know if it's important to put a number on this
2015-08-06 17:26:29 fib1618: as this is "implied" volatility
2015-08-06 17:26:30 fib1618: however
2015-08-06 17:26:38 fib1618: if the Elliott idea is correct
2015-08-06 17:27:07 fib1618: this same volatility will see its highest readings during 3rd wave structures
2015-08-06 17:27:25 fib1618: so there's something else to help confirm our earlier idea
2015-08-06 17:27:37 fib1618: again
2015-08-06 17:27:44 fib1618: it must all work together
2015-08-06 17:27:58 fib1618: especially when it comes to Elliott
2015-08-06 17:28:08 fib1618: where it gets its pattern basis
2015-08-06 17:28:15 fib1618: no less its degree of trend
2015-08-06 17:28:21 fib1618: based solely on emotion
2015-08-06 17:28:28 fib1618: so...
2015-08-06 17:28:39 fib1618: having a highly complacent market this week
2015-08-06 17:28:50 fib1618: after having a market that sold off hard in July
2015-08-06 17:29:01 fib1618: smacks of wave 2 psychology
2015-08-06 17:29:08 fib1618: that we can't go lower
2015-08-06 17:29:19 fib1618: that the sell off was contained like we've seen before
2015-08-06 17:29:28 fib1618: and that the better position is being long than short
2015-08-06 17:29:40 fib1618: and then you look at today's TRIN numbers on a down day
2015-08-06 17:29:48 fib1618: and this becomes rather clear
2015-08-06 17:30:05 fib1618: like we talked about on Wednesday
2015-08-06 17:30:12 fib1618: traders would like to push the market higher here
2015-08-06 17:30:19 fib1618: but they are finding too much resistance to do so
2015-08-06 17:30:24 fib1618: or more to the point
2015-08-06 17:30:35 fib1618: there's not enough conviction by traders of this idea
2015-08-06 17:31:02 fib1618: and once the momentum of last week's reflex rally exhausts itself
2015-08-06 17:31:06 fib1618: down we go
2015-08-06 17:31:22 fib1618: so we'll work with that for now
2015-08-06 17:31:26 fib1618: or at the very least
2015-08-06 17:31:51 fib1618: better to be defensive than to hope for the Calvary to come in the nick of time
2015-08-06 17:32:01 fib1618: let me take a quick look around at some sectors
2015-08-06 17:32:26 fib1618: ugh
2015-08-06 17:32:43 fib1618: bring up a chart of the DJA (Dow Composite Index)
2015-08-06 17:32:50 fib1618: and apply a 20/50/200 EMA
2015-08-06 17:33:01 fib1618: and you'll see that we are in a bearish configuration
2015-08-06 17:33:05 fib1618: and a ribbon cross
2015-08-06 17:33:09 fib1618: not a good thing at all
2015-08-06 17:33:38 fib1618: Dow Transports found resistance at the 200 day EMA
2015-08-06 17:33:54 fib1618: that's a classic "bear kiss" before the swipe
2015-08-06 17:34:22 fib1618: Agricultural stocks have collapsed
2015-08-06 17:34:26 fib1618: not a good thing
2015-08-06 17:34:42 fib1618: banking stocks are holding up well
2015-08-06 17:34:49 fib1618: hugging the 20 day EMA
2015-08-06 17:35:24 fib1618: price pattern breakdown in Biotech today
2015-08-06 17:35:52 fib1618: China just moved into a bearish configuration
2015-08-06 17:36:05 fib1618: business in China, by the way, is poor
2015-08-06 17:36:22 fib1618: Computer disks are bearish
2015-08-06 17:36:34 fib1618: computer hardware
2015-08-06 17:37:02 fib1618: the Semi's just moved to bear mode as well
2015-08-06 17:37:16 fib1618: software is holding its own
2015-08-06 17:37:40 fib1618: anything energy related looks dismal
2015-08-06 17:37:48 fib1618: including chemical stocks
2015-08-06 17:38:03 fib1618: gold stocks are very bearish here
2015-08-06 17:38:11 fib1618: still liking $985 for gold
2015-08-06 17:38:36 fib1618: housing, insurance and networking are positive
2015-08-06 17:38:45 fib1618: so is retail
2015-08-06 17:38:50 fib1618: that's interesting
2015-08-06 17:39:32 fib1618: the exchange stocks are doing well
2015-08-06 17:39:39 fib1618: as overall volume has been good
2015-08-06 17:40:12 fib1618: commodities remain very weak here
2015-08-06 17:40:29 fib1618: might be a good buy later this year with the expectation of a winter El Nino event
2015-08-06 17:40:55 fib1618: I heard there's now 18 small towns in California that will run out of water in the next 2 weeks
2015-08-06 17:42:07 fib1618: industrial sector is weak...but we knew that
2015-08-06 17:42:18 fib1618: as are materials
2015-08-06 17:42:47 fib1618: REITS continue to look poor
2015-08-06 17:43:35 fib1618: nice dividends though
2015-08-06 17:43:41 fib1618: REM is at 13.91% now
2015-08-06 17:43:58 fib1618: retail spyders are weak
2015-08-06 17:44:08 fib1618: that's more in keeping to what's going on
2015-08-06 17:44:20 fib1618: Amazon is going to do very well this holiday season
2015-08-06 17:45:25 fib1618: US Dollar continues to move sideways
2015-08-06 17:45:40 fib1618: has been now since it hit par in March so it's due to break one way or the other
2015-08-06 17:46:05 fib1618: wow...Bank of Internet is flying
2015-08-06 17:46:54 fib1618: banks are holding up nicely here
2015-08-06 17:46:57 fib1618: which tends to mean
2015-08-06 17:47:02 fib1618: that rates are going higher
2015-08-06 17:47:10 fib1618: the higher the rates
2015-08-06 17:47:18 fib1618: the more banks can charge on loans
2015-08-06 17:47:22 fib1618: and the higher the spread
2015-08-06 17:47:34 fib1618: especially if overnight rates remain low
2015-08-06 17:47:37 fib1618: anyway
2015-08-06 17:47:49 fib1618: things are either treading water
2015-08-06 17:47:56 fib1618: or deeply discounted here
2015-08-06 17:48:01 fib1618: it's important then to look around
2015-08-06 17:48:11 fib1618: and don't throw the baby out with the bath water
2015-08-06 17:48:18 fib1618: anything else?
2015-08-06 17:48:21 unc1998 G436: do you think the transports are headed back to the October lows?
2015-08-06 17:48:45 fib1618: the good thing for the transports is that the cost of fuel is moving lower
2015-08-06 17:48:59 fib1618: the bad thing though is that if there isn't any shipping being done, who cares?
2015-08-06 17:49:12 fib1618: FED EX and UPS are slow
2015-08-06 17:49:26 fib1618: as they are doubling up the routes for the drivers
2015-08-06 17:49:38 fib1618: same with the postal service
2015-08-06 17:49:43 fib1618: let me look at the chart
2015-08-06 17:50:00 unc1998 G436: summation on IYT is back to 0
2015-08-06 17:50:14 fib1618: thanks for that
2015-08-06 17:50:17 fib1618: as a chartist
2015-08-06 17:50:33 fib1618: not being to move back above the 200 day EMA is a trigger point
2015-08-06 17:51:01 fib1618: so any new break below the 20 day EMA
2015-08-06 17:51:10 fib1618: would put the chart back into a bearish configuration
2015-08-06 17:51:15 fib1618: and the next area of support is...
2015-08-06 17:51:32 fib1618: the October lows
2015-08-06 17:51:34 fib1618: so...yes
2015-08-06 17:51:40 unc1998 G436: thanks
2015-08-06 17:51:51 fib1618: keep in mind while we're on the subject
2015-08-06 17:52:17 fib1618: that it would take a close below the October lows to generate an intermediate term Dow Theory sell signal
2015-08-06 17:53:07 fib1618: which would be confirmed with the Dow moving below its February lows
2015-08-06 17:53:23 fib1618: so if anyone brings it up now
2015-08-06 17:53:32 fib1618: raise and eyebrow and move on [smile]
2015-08-06 17:53:43 unc1998 G436: [smile]
2015-08-06 17:53:52 fib1618: here's the bottom line
2015-08-06 17:54:06 fib1618: we have pretty good odds here that a sell off is about to take place
2015-08-06 17:54:11 fib1618: on a longer term basis
2015-08-06 17:54:23 fib1618: this would still be within the context of a rising trend
2015-08-06 17:54:41 fib1618: and that this would part of the ongoing correctional process
2015-08-06 17:54:53 fib1618: but that doesn't mean we can't make money on the downside either
2015-08-06 17:55:02 fib1618: it really shouldn't matter anyway
2015-08-06 17:55:23 fib1618: as it's more important to know the likely direction of stock prices than it is to be perfect
2015-08-06 17:55:38 fib1618: anyway...we'll see how things go
2015-08-06 17:56:00 unc1998 G436: gotta run...thanks and have a goodnight
2015-08-06 17:56:06 fib1618: thank you!
2015-08-06 17:56:16 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-08-06 17:56:27 fib1618: I'm going to also take my leave
2015-08-06 17:56:34 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2015-08-06 17:56:40 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2015-08-06 17:56:41 fib1618: good night


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