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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-08-05 19:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-08-05 19:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-08-05 19:01:49 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Welcome back!
2008-08-05 19:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thank you!
2008-08-05 19:02:00 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: good to see ya back
2008-08-05 19:02:02 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: yup, full house today...
2008-08-05 19:02:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fibbbbb! welcome home!
2008-08-05 19:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-05 19:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I first want to say a big thank you to TM, DD, and many others who participated during my absence - you all did an exceptional job!
2008-08-05 19:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-08-05 19:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first item on the table is probably a review of what's been going on since our last get together
2008-08-05 19:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during this time we saw many, if not all, of the MCSUM's break below not only their bottoms above bottoms patterns, but also broke back below the divergent lows of March
2008-08-05 19:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this break was a significant event as far as what we should be looking for moving forward
2008-08-05 19:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with our breaking of these same low points in the MCSUM pattern, this instructs us that we're going to have to wait for several months again before a more solid foundation in which to see any kind of up trend to show itself
2008-08-05 19:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as I mentioned during last Tuesday's surprise visit, this might last as long as late fall
2008-08-05 19:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other hand, and on a cyclical basis, if the 9 month cycle is still intact after last December's failure to hold the markets price patterns higher, the next 9 month low is due sometime in September
2008-08-05 19:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to the MCSUM comments shared earlier
2008-08-05 19:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually when we see such a decisive break of foundation as we had, something on the scale of a 4 year cycle is probably exerting this kind of influence on this same cyclical idea
2008-08-05 19:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would be akin to something like we saw in 1998 - where the 9 month low bottomed in September,, and the 4 year bottomed in October
2008-08-05 19:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have discussed in the past on how these kind of cycles can sometimes "shift" in their natural rhythm
2008-08-05 19:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so something like a 4 year shift might be consider based on the idea that we were so over stimulated in 2006 that it's taken another 2 years to correct this
2008-08-05 19:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...
2008-08-05 19:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of this is only theory at this point in time
2008-08-05 19:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's a pretty good bet now that we're going to have to generate (or create) some sort of base before the market will then again to be able to rally to the point in which uptrend can be established
2008-08-05 19:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also be in line to what we saw in the various MCO's during this same break of support in the MCSUM's being that we never took out the flag lows of last year in this same process
2008-08-05 19:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, no new MCO downside projections have been given on top of the original forecast of a test of the March 2007 lows
2008-08-05 19:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we take these two tools into consideration, both are suggesting a larger trading range and NOT something of what would be considered a "bear market"
2008-08-05 19:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...you might be asking yourself - "OK Fib, but we've seen a 20% correction (or more) in much of the market, and this kind of thing suggests a "bear market" - I'm confused"
2008-08-05 19:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...we have to go with the idea that there can be bear markets, but the context of such a label can always be challenged
2008-08-05 19:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case...yes...if you're a short term or intermediate term trader, we have seen many trendline breaks occur over the last several months
2008-08-05 19:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but longer term...we have another story since we haven't as yet broken trend - nor has lower downside objectives been given by the MCO to CONFIRM such implications
2008-08-05 19:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, at this point, it's probably better to look at the current trading climate as a technical correction in a longer term bull move
2008-08-05 19:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this doesn't take away from the fact that money has been made betting on the downside, and for those who are long, doesn't bring much relief when you open up your monthly statements
2008-08-05 19:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there were many clues along the way that kept us from making wrong choices as well
2008-08-05 19:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first of which was the "full stop" that was generated back in January - no less the Summation Failure we saw late last year
2008-08-05 19:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so, for now, with the markets as fully washed out as they are, we begin again
2008-08-05 19:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll get the charts up, and we'll get started
2008-08-05 19:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after testing MCO support at the -75 level back at the beginning of July, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved sharply higher and now is showing a structure of tops beneath tops, as well as, bottoms below bottoms
2008-08-05 19:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would be a natural correctional process of base building, and shouldn't be misconstrued as a sign of weakness
2008-08-05 19:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a sign of weakness would had been for the MCO to move as sharply as it did and then retrace much of what was gained in quick order
2008-08-05 19:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is not the case and provides the insight that the bulls are attempting to mount a short term base in which the MCSUM will be able to support structure later on down the line
2008-08-05 19:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will also notice that, like much of the MCSUM's right now, the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to show a reading below the -500 level
2008-08-05 19:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things we've talked about many times in the past is that when the MCSUM gets above or below the 500 level, not only does this level act as support or resistance, but it also keeps the price action from moving in the opposite direction without a great deal of effort in doing so
2008-08-05 19:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is what's been keep the market from "trending higher" - and produces "choppy behaviour"
2008-08-05 19:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the closer we move towards the zero line, the less effect the one side will have in moving the market in their direction
2008-08-05 19:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case...the bears are having continuing problems in moving the market lower - and in this case - this causes short and sharp thrusts higher as shorts begin to tire and cover their positions
2008-08-05 19:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so although today was a nice day, it's not a start of anything for the bull side
2008-08-05 19:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more to the point, it's a lessening of what has already occurred
2008-08-05 19:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to help to support this idea, we then look at the components of the MCO itself in relation to the actual position of the MCO
2008-08-05 19:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the CO NYSE, we can see that although this MCO is showing strength by moving above its zero line, the components continue to have problems in confirming such a position
2008-08-05 19:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, we will usually see the current formation of tops beneath tops AND bottoms below bottoms
2008-08-05 19:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words, we're still lacking the kind of fuel that is necessary to break the bounds of a bear market "default", and all we can say at this juncture is...the current move higher is only correctional in scope
2008-08-05 19:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's always key to remember that everything MUST work together - like a well tuned engine
2008-08-05 19:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we see mis-firing, there is going to be a lack of forward movement, and this is basically what we've seen since our last get together
2008-08-05 19:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...many of the indices are lower than they were at the end of June, but some are about at the same levels as they were back then...for example, the OEX
2008-08-05 19:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and even when we look at the NYA price pattern, today's trading still has us locked into a small consolidation pattern...no break out
2008-08-05 19:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, we wait to see what the boys and girls on the floor have in mind
2008-08-05 19:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on to the composite NYSE breadth MCO, and here we see that unlike the CO data, this MCO continues to show a series of tops beneath tops BUT also shows a bottom above a bottom
2008-08-05 19:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, we can then assume that the interest rate sensitive issues are more firm right now than they were previously
2008-08-05 19:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which we got some idea of this occurring with this last weekend's updated breadth charts which showed the Bond CEF data attempting to find support at its rising bottoms line
2008-08-05 19:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the FED again going neutral today, the main beneficiary of such monetary policy will usually be with the interest sensitive issues
2008-08-05 19:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that, and, areas of safety such as consumer staples and heath care
2008-08-05 19:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the group noticed this in my absence, and a tip of the TW cap is given
2008-08-05 19:40:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: utilities?
2008-08-05 19:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, they would also be of the defensive nature, but what's bothering them near term is the price of energy
2008-08-05 19:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we're seeing the air escape that balloon right now
2008-08-05 19:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with crude finding it's top right on schedule, the downside objective, if we follow what gold did after its top last March, would be around the $100 level
2008-08-05 19:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term, a bounce might be indicated - sort of like what we saw in April gold
2008-08-05 19:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should continue to see some choppiness in the utilities, however, much of the correction is getting pretty close to ending
2008-08-05 19:43:23 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: fcx weekly chart tested and held a horizontal area of interest today, fwiw
2008-08-05 19:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as far as the metals are concerned, we're very close to a bottom here too IF the idea of a triangle in gold is still the correct one
2008-08-05 19:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the FED doing nothing, this should add some stimulation to the upside
2008-08-05 19:45:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, your chart on gold had an A down with a B up and now a C down, if your triangle is the case, are you saying the C is a flat?
2008-08-05 19:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...wave C is part of the triangle
2008-08-05 19:45:45 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 76.67 is the daily close low for FCX in 2008 that held again today
2008-08-05 19:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would have to take out the A wave lows for a flat
2008-08-05 19:45:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if C not lower than A isn't that a flat?
2008-08-05 19:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...C can only be higher than A in a triangle
2008-08-05 19:46:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i see
2008-08-05 19:46:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so if gold takes out the A low, then what?
2008-08-05 19:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other correctional Elliott patterns either meet or exceed the stopping point of "A"
2008-08-05 19:46:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its close enough to consider
2008-08-05 19:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me look...one moment
2008-08-05 19:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...nasty day there - down $33?
2008-08-05 19:47:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-08-05 19:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: closed right on the 200 day EMA
2008-08-05 19:47:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-08-05 19:48:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i was tempted to pick up aem shares, but held back
2008-08-05 19:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the dollar also got a big push up today...interesting
2008-08-05 19:48:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: is there any history of gold rallying with the dollar?
2008-08-05 19:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why being a fundamental trader is so difficult
2008-08-05 19:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-05 19:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you would think with the FED remaining neutral that gold would had been more solid in its performance
2008-08-05 19:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless... money is being "withdrawn" to help out other positions
2008-08-05 19:49:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: seems like the euro and pound have much ground to give up, wondering if dollar rallying against Europe with a chance that gold goes higher
2008-08-05 19:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: makes no sense
2008-08-05 19:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the EURO is being supported by a better return, why would the dollar strengthen?
2008-08-05 19:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...I will have to look at this later on - thanks for pointing it out
2008-08-05 19:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me check the triangle
2008-08-05 19:50:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: perhaps it wont be, if commods decline, their mandate of fighting inflation is tamed - may then look at growth there, which has slowed considerably of late and looks to be getting much worse
2008-08-05 19:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: key support on Elliott here - right at 875
2008-08-05 19:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on a simple chart basis - http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/gold080508.png
2008-08-05 19:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: decisive break there
2008-08-05 19:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and at the same time, the PM and XAU breadth data had already given us a caution sign on this already
2008-08-05 19:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XAU stocks are getting clobbered, but we should see this kind of thing during "C" waves
2008-08-05 19:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we have to see how things go on the impending snapback
2008-08-05 19:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on, you will note that on the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM, today's brisk move higher took place as the posting moved above the -750 level
2008-08-05 19:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these 250 increment levels shows us how much power one side has over the other
2008-08-05 19:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today the bulls have moved above another building block, and we should now see this MCSUM move up to the -500 level
2008-08-05 19:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice also that we have a nice smooth move to the upside since the July lows unlike last winters choppiness
2008-08-05 20:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so money is moving back into the market right now, but there's still not enough to create a trend
2008-08-05 20:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...there is still much more work to be done
2008-08-05 20:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term...a break above the recent secondary high seen on the NYSE breadth MCO will allow the price pattern to also move above this same resistance area with an objective on the NYA of around the 9000 level
2008-08-05 20:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking a horizontal view of things, you will also notice that we have resistance at what was previous support during the January/March lows
2008-08-05 20:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we need to see enough of a push to break above the price pattern resistance just noted, and to do this, we need another kick higher
2008-08-05 20:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we fail to do this, there is a pretty good possibility of "rolling over"
2008-08-05 20:04:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what do you think a kick like that would look like?
2008-08-05 20:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we have a near term outside influence in play here with the Olympics starting this week, along with the MCSUM as negative as it is, we have to be on guard for any "out of the blue" surprises not already discounted
2008-08-05 20:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a kick. in this case, would be something like seeing the market show follow through to the upside tomorrow and seeing breadth plurality at better than 2:1 - preferably...as close to 3:1 as possible
2008-08-05 20:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that might be asking too much given that the MCO is already as high as it is
2008-08-05 20:06:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would it have to be tomorrow, or could it be Thursday (ecb and boe meeting thurs a.m.)
2008-08-05 20:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that when the MCO is close to being "overbought" or "oversold", it takes a tremendous amount of energy to keep it moving in this same direction because of the math involved
2008-08-05 20:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would allow 2 days
2008-08-05 20:06:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: perfect - ty
2008-08-05 20:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't believe that the market is in any condition to "double pump" right now simply because we're not seeing any fresh money at this stage
2008-08-05 20:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do see right now is more in the covering of short positions - which is money just recycled
2008-08-05 20:07:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: commodity stocks relief day tomorrow perhaps?
2008-08-05 20:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reasons will be given later
2008-08-05 20:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other thing in this time frame that we must consider is that OPEX is a week from Friday
2008-08-05 20:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we're going to see some "roll over" action for the rest of this week - something in which watching option ratios might help in ones trading
2008-08-05 20:09:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: based on what you see in options data, would you expect the path of least resistance going into next Friday being higher or lower?
2008-08-05 20:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know...I don't really follow this area much any more
2008-08-05 20:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the expectation right now, based on breadth of market, is for prices to move higher
2008-08-05 20:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the further expectation of seeing all of the MCSUM's move to or towards their zero lines before this is all over with
2008-08-05 20:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls, the worry now is that all of the willing sellers are out, but the unwilling panic selling is not
2008-08-05 20:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so another shoe should drop sometime in the fall...maybe sooner
2008-08-05 20:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to grasp right now, but for the time being, downside pressure has been elevated and construction has begun
2008-08-05 20:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we technically should expect a snapback in all of the breadth data
2008-08-05 20:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had that squeeze of the EMA's in June which had the predictable results in July
2008-08-05 20:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we have so much bearish sentiment right now, it's time to correct those excesses as well
2008-08-05 20:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: either by moving counter trend by price, by using time to work off this same excess, or both
2008-08-05 20:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far...it's been more in the time area, we might see this start to "squeeze" now
2008-08-05 20:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: uptrend's are slow and methodical - short covering rallies are quick and sharp and generally don't hold the coverage made
2008-08-05 20:16:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: follow through in the next 1-2 days would also allow the NYAD cum to move above the recent highs and towards the 5% trend.
2008-08-05 20:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I think we can all agree that the short term pattern fits this definition nicely
2008-08-05 20:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good point Doc
2008-08-05 20:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's look at the A/D combo charts for a moment
2008-08-05 20:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p88009015897&a=118792146&r=964
2008-08-05 20:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NYAD, you will see that the A/D line is having a tough time getting through it's 10% Trend
2008-08-05 20:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the first hurdle that needs to be overcome
2008-08-05 20:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we do move above this level, we should then look for a snapback to this same "Trend" line, and then an attempt to carry on higher towards the 5% Trend (39 day EMA)
2008-08-05 20:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this chart also brings the point home about the work that needs to be done as we're only at the lower end of the trend channel right now
2008-08-05 20:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so even if we do move higher, test the 39 day, and then move to the 200 day EMA, it's going to take quite of bit of CONSISTENT money flow to do this
2008-08-05 20:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then...
2008-08-05 20:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking your line of vision to the NYSE breadth MCSUM chart below it, you can see how much air we have to cover just to snapback to what was basic technical support
2008-08-05 20:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, in other words, there is absolutely no good reason to try to be a bull hero here
2008-08-05 20:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have had quite a bit of destruction to the short and intermediate term trends, and it's going to take a while to sort things out
2008-08-05 20:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately, though, moving to cash is not giving a great return right now, although, you can find 3% pretty easy
2008-08-05 20:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the combo chart
2008-08-05 20:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will also notice that the NYSE breadth MCO is finding good support (so far) on its snapback line
2008-08-05 20:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so near term, this would suggest that we're probably going to see at least a full on challenge of the secondary highs before Thursday
2008-08-05 20:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how we settle will be informative
2008-08-05 20:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point, it's a matter of finding the necessary structure needed to build on, and we don't have that as yet
2008-08-05 20:26:26 [Message] doc -> Main Room: We've talked about the mco spending time above and below the zero line. This past year we've seen the McSum spend quite a bit of time in negative territory.
2008-08-05 20:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so any thinking that we're going to just move to higher highs with ease is probably not the best plan to go with at this time
2008-08-05 20:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and if you remember
2008-08-05 20:27:11 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Unless we get a protracted bear market, I'd expect some balance soon?
2008-08-05 20:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how long did the MCSUM remain above the zero line in the 2006/2007 period?
2008-08-05 20:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, there is always a balancing act going on
2008-08-05 20:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we have had so much technical destruction, that's going to take time
2008-08-05 20:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market doesn't move as fast as the internet
2008-08-05 20:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...it took 10 months for the market to top out
2008-08-05 20:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from the January/February Asian collapse and first whiff of sub prime, it wasn't until October when we "put the fork in"
2008-08-05 20:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I wouldn't expect too much more
2008-08-05 20:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially in light that as an animal, humans are always quick to panic, but very slow to embrace
2008-08-05 20:30:15 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Well, we'd have a take a page from the chapter the last time the AD line declined for a long time and that is back in 1998-2000 and the McSum stayed mostly negative for 2 years then.
2008-08-05 20:30:34 [Message] doc -> Main Room: as you would expect mathematically
2008-08-05 20:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and...we had bearish A/D divergence as well
2008-08-05 20:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is interesting how we're getting a lot of similarities with the 1998 period
2008-08-05 20:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: decennial cycle?
2008-08-05 20:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (shrug)
2008-08-05 20:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1988 wasn't that good either - nor was 78 or 68
2008-08-05 20:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 58 was luke warm
2008-08-05 20:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1948 was a bottom
2008-08-05 20:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so was 1938
2008-08-05 20:32:18 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: btw, CSCO closed tonight ah trading at the mid channel BB ($24.37) on the weekly chart
2008-08-05 20:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the volume data - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p06063388509&a=118792131&r=368
2008-08-05 20:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pretty much in sync with breadth right now
2008-08-05 20:33:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: oh, so that means bad?
2008-08-05 20:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...consistency
2008-08-05 20:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to find what's consistent and play that
2008-08-05 20:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: finding what rhythm the market moves to can be very beneficial
2008-08-05 20:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this can help every technician no matter what he or she uses to make decisions
2008-08-05 20:34:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Dave why do you think the small caps are doing so well right now?
2008-08-05 20:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking from an Elliott standpoint
2008-08-05 20:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this could be a "C" wave low of a higher degree 2nd wave
2008-08-05 20:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have the sentiment to go with it
2008-08-05 20:35:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: left over ripples of the waves that hit the balance sheets of the financials instead of the shores?
2008-08-05 20:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: DD - because the small caps life blood is the cost of money
2008-08-05 20:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...in a way Dave
2008-08-05 20:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the technical world, cycles, waves, shifts in opinion, can be attuned to that of ocean waves moving onto a beach
2008-08-05 20:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're larger as they hit the end of the pier...soften up by the time they hit the shore line
2008-08-05 20:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the government "says" we don't have a recession
2008-08-05 20:37:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: with all that liquidity the fed created, it couldn't all go to the banks, some cheap money had to hit the small caps
2008-08-05 20:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-05 20:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but, to be sure, this version of the "crisis" has taken a lot of money out of the system
2008-08-05 20:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we saw the very same thing happen in the late 1980's with the S&L crisis
2008-08-05 20:38:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: couple hundred billion
2008-08-05 20:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money is relative
2008-08-05 20:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just a number
2008-08-05 20:39:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well that number, if it headed to stocks instead of banks, would have been much higher stock prices
2008-08-05 20:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like Dr. Evil learning that 1 million dollars didn't mean as much as it previously did
2008-08-05 20:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: absolutely Dave, and the flush was heard when we broke MCSUM support
2008-08-05 20:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't underestimate the power it took to break the divergent MCSUM structure
2008-08-05 20:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was immense
2008-08-05 20:40:33 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the power was immense?
2008-08-05 20:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but short term breadth data is saying that things are not as bad as they were
2008-08-05 20:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Hiker - to first generate a divergent structure on its own
2008-08-05 20:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if amplified by the rarity of seeing one created on the MCSUM
2008-08-05 20:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it took an overwhelming amount of negative money flow to break this same divergence
2008-08-05 20:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls...back breaking
2008-08-05 20:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bears...emotionalism at its finest
2008-08-05 20:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all the market needs is clarity, and we still don't have any
2008-08-05 20:42:51 [Message] doc -> Main Room: The nasdaq breadth mco looks a bit worrisome if we don't get follow through tomorrow, and the NASI is right up against previous resistance at the -600 level
2008-08-05 20:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but "physics" says we must return to the mean, and that's what we're attempting to do
2008-08-05 20:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: speaking of the NAAD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p20967548256&a=118792179&r=889
2008-08-05 20:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same resistance at the 10% Trend
2008-08-05 20:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's so very important that you don't get faked out by these one day wonders
2008-08-05 20:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just points
2008-08-05 20:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's to stimulate reaction
2008-08-05 20:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with our job in figuring out what action needs reacting to
2008-08-05 20:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and take a gander at the NAUD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p13223202764&a=118792169&r=653
2008-08-05 20:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with special emphasis on the MCSUM
2008-08-05 20:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup...there's a lot of work to do here for the bull side
2008-08-05 20:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: step by step...inch by inch
2008-08-05 20:46:12 [Message] doc -> Main Room: with the March to May rally, the NAAD finally touched its 5% trend at the peak of the rally and again on the retest and then it was all downhill again
2008-08-05 20:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to believe that it's NOT going to take a few more months to complete is not a reasonable idea
2008-08-05 20:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe that at this point we have to continue to look for reasons that we're NOT in a bear market
2008-08-05 20:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a break above the 10% Trend is only a minor hurdle here, but at the same time, it's very important
2008-08-05 20:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the intermediate term, it's the 5% Trend that's important
2008-08-05 20:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but for the greater scope, unless we see movement above the 1% Trend, and then a successful snapback created, the longer term trend is down
2008-08-05 20:48:27 [Message] doc -> Main Room: true, since the Nov peak, selling short the NAUD the 2 times we hit the 1% trend would have made you look like a genius
2008-08-05 20:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we break trend lines of this time scope in the process, it will probably be a bigger bear trend than what is usual - about 2-3 years
2008-08-05 20:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's been that simple, yes Doc
2008-08-05 20:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the NAAD has had nothing but problems right at the 19 day EMA for quite a spell now
2008-08-05 20:49:53 [Message] doc -> Main Room: that would make our chats very short though, :-)
2008-08-05 20:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this market is tricky
2008-08-05 20:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...very short indeed
2008-08-05 20:50:19 [Message] doc -> Main Room: this is more fun, and challenging
2008-08-05 20:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and meanwhile - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$AMAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p93384628181&a=118792218&r=98
2008-08-05 20:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one can take the AMAD two ways
2008-08-05 20:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since a lot of what is composed of the AMEX is resource related
2008-08-05 20:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it told us months ago that both gold and oil were probably going to see some sort of correction
2008-08-05 20:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other hand
2008-08-05 20:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having it not make lower lows of late, in light of the destruction we've seen in both of these sectors areas, does keep us on guard that a near term bottom might be approaching
2008-08-05 20:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then, we have this to mix into the pot - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAX&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p51458049394&a=118792202&r=976
2008-08-05 20:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a classic head and shoulders pattern - a break of the neckline...snapback in process...etc.
2008-08-05 20:53:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, the market has been having an inverse tick for tick correlation with oil for sometime now, do you see the possibility of the market heading higher (short term) with oil and gold moving higher (short term) as well? what would it take to break the tick for tick inverse correlation?
2008-08-05 20:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then...during the topping phase of almost every bull move, it is the oil stocks that are the last to fall
2008-08-05 20:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe that there is enough evidence out there to show that gold and oil work on two different pulses
2008-08-05 20:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes they will correlate near term
2008-08-05 20:55:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the inverse correlation i was referring was the market and oil
2008-08-05 20:55:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: shouldn't have mentioned gold
2008-08-05 20:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but mostly this is just something that's happenstance
2008-08-05 20:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh
2008-08-05 20:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the transports are higher now than when we last met
2008-08-05 20:55:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: oil and the market traveled the same path from '03 to '07
2008-08-05 20:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and they have nothing to do with the other
2008-08-05 20:56:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: when i say market, i mean dow spx and comp
2008-08-05 20:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like coincidence
2008-08-05 20:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: understood
2008-08-05 20:56:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: tick for tick
2008-08-05 20:56:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Airedale used to say they cycle in tandem, although amplitudes will vary
2008-08-05 20:56:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: oil goes up 50 cents, dow goes down 30 pts
2008-08-05 20:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's always an exception
2008-08-05 20:56:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: every day, all day, for weeks now
2008-08-05 20:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the broader market...
2008-08-05 20:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tick for tick?
2008-08-05 20:56:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: virtually
2008-08-05 20:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: SML?
2008-08-05 20:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NDX?
2008-08-05 20:57:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: as mentioned above, dow, sp500 and comp
2008-08-05 20:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can we say that mature companies use more in the way of petroleum products than mid and small caps?
2008-08-05 20:57:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: even after 2:30 pm when oil pits close and its electronic trading
2008-08-05 20:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: production
2008-08-05 20:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shipping
2008-08-05 20:58:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but they moved together for 5 years of advancing prices
2008-08-05 20:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see...one moment
2008-08-05 20:58:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: now inversely correlated on an INTRADAY basis
2008-08-05 21:00:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i have 5 min charts of oil and markets one right on top of the other, there is a tick for tick inverse correlation, almost all day every day for weeks now
2008-08-05 21:00:58 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I noticed that too, actually
2008-08-05 21:01:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: As I trade oil stocks and NDX, mostly.
2008-08-05 21:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about daily - is this what you're referring to?? http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/spxoil080508.png
2008-08-05 21:02:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it makes the point
2008-08-05 21:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there are times in which we see both compliments and inverse relationships
2008-08-05 21:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the one hand, more demand for energy means business must be good
2008-08-05 21:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other - if it gets too expensive, and business falls off, prices fall
2008-08-05 21:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...the market bulls will take anything they can get
2008-08-05 21:03:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the magic question is how far does oil have to drop where a bounce in oil doesn't smush the market
2008-08-05 21:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how much did oil have to rise before stocks topped out?
2008-08-05 21:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wasn't at $40
2008-08-05 21:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or $60
2008-08-05 21:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or $80
2008-08-05 21:04:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: $100?
2008-08-05 21:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to keep in mind that we adjust to what is being given
2008-08-05 21:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes, though, kicking and screaming
2008-08-05 21:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if I told you today that I spent $3.75 a gallon for gas today 1 year ago, you would have called me crazy
2008-08-05 21:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all relative
2008-08-05 21:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we adjust
2008-08-05 21:05:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i have conflicting data in technicals, where it shows that an imminent commodity stock bounce is in order as well as market looks to continue "short term" bounce, i am wondering if it is possible to have both in the short term........time will tell,
2008-08-05 21:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it can happen
2008-08-05 21:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it has in the past and probably will in the future
2008-08-05 21:06:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hence the question regarding the inverse tick for tick correlation
2008-08-05 21:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but stocks already started their bounce weeks ago
2008-08-05 21:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and commodities will be late in turning lower later on
2008-08-05 21:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe every market moves to the beat of its own drummer
2008-08-05 21:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money will flow from areas PERCEIVED as under valued, to fairly valued, to fully valued, to over valued
2008-08-05 21:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing goes in a straight line either
2008-08-05 21:08:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: perhaps the feds decision can break the inverse correlation, lower rates good for cheap money, also good for commodity prices, didn't get that news till today, so perhaps they both have a bounce short term
2008-08-05 21:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...commodities are a "buying opp"
2008-08-05 21:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: stocks, on the other hand, are not showing such enthusiasm
2008-08-05 21:08:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: small point change on xle cvi/vto/stvo
2008-08-05 21:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since the 2003 lows, nothing has correlated well
2008-08-05 21:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of the main financial assets remained buoyant
2008-08-05 21:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something that we've never seen before
2008-08-05 21:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the path of money from gold to commodities to debt to equities became a blur
2008-08-05 21:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now things are becoming "more normal" in this respect
2008-08-05 21:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold topped in March
2008-08-05 21:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oil and commodities topped out 4 months later...this would be historically consistent
2008-08-05 21:10:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: foreign money coming in and buying anything denominated in us dollars? b/c dollar was cheap?
2008-08-05 21:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be realistic
2008-08-05 21:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why seeing the dollar rally is something that needs our attention right now
2008-08-05 21:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something is amiss
2008-08-05 21:11:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just read an article that lebron james would go play basketball in Europe for 50 million a year, they have already contacted him
2008-08-05 21:11:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its crazy
2008-08-05 21:11:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 50 mil to them is nothing
2008-08-05 21:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 50 million would be 75 million US
2008-08-05 21:11:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 50 mil us to play there
2008-08-05 21:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...and have seen what people in Hollywood make each year?
2008-08-05 21:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have you seen
2008-08-05 21:12:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: he can only make 20 mil here, so europe can give him 30 mil per year raise
2008-08-05 21:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Charlie Sheen...makes 850,000 for each episode of his TV show
2008-08-05 21:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's ridiculous
2008-08-05 21:13:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: "something amiss", what?
2008-08-05 21:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you're Lebron, you take your talents where you can get the most amount of money
2008-08-05 21:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the dollar and gold...we talked about it earlier
2008-08-05 21:13:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right
2008-08-05 21:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: time is fleeting...let's move on
2008-08-05 21:14:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sorry, just excited to have you back.....lol
2008-08-05 21:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-05 21:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a problem...just don't want others to fall asleep - it's 9:15 on the east coast
2008-08-05 21:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO, and its components, also show non confirmation going on right now
2008-08-05 21:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what the bulls would love to see are higher highs on the MCO now
2008-08-05 21:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially with finding double support at the +25 level
2008-08-05 21:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm also noticing that many of the MCSUM's are in and around the -500 to -600 levels right now
2008-08-05 21:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the market, internally, appears to be in sync
2008-08-05 21:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2008-08-05 21:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here we see that the secondary top was taken out today
2008-08-05 21:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should look to break out of the current trading range to the upside as soon as Wednesday
2008-08-05 21:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price pattern wise
2008-08-05 21:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the pattern continues to follow the guidelines of a rounding bottom with the appropriate amount of retracement
2008-08-05 21:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the structure you see here is the definitive "cup and handle" formation
2008-08-05 21:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we can get higher NDX breadth MCO highs here, we should then see higher price highs on the NDX
2008-08-05 21:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the next test being the 2150 level where we have our SOB pattern resistance in place
2008-08-05 21:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM, and we can see here that we didn't move to lower lows like the other MCSUM's
2008-08-05 21:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would indicate....strength of pattern
2008-08-05 21:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that the NDX is fully washed out
2008-08-05 21:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls...it would be nice to see the NDX and COMPQ lead to the upside here out of this current pattern
2008-08-05 21:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but don't fall into the trap that the secondaries are needed for the market to advance
2008-08-05 21:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at last fall for an example of this caution....
2008-08-05 21:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO is testing its secondary highs
2008-08-05 21:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and look at the nice gap expansion we got today on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2008-08-05 21:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the components of the SPX breadth MCO are also starting to move more in sync here
2008-08-05 21:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this might be more of a institution play here - money flowing back into equities now that the storm has passed
2008-08-05 21:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still having unstable air to contend with behind the front
2008-08-05 21:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the current strength of the SPX can be found with the top 100...the OEX
2008-08-05 21:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice power move to the upside today
2008-08-05 21:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks like we should get upside follow through there
2008-08-05 21:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether we hold or not is the near term question
2008-08-05 21:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow breadth MCSUM is now back above the -500 level
2008-08-05 21:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we can now start to see more than one day events to the upside on a counter trend basis
2008-08-05 21:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to back up days would now be probable
2008-08-05 21:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although I wouldn't expect back to back 300 point days
2008-08-05 21:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: perspective is useful
2008-08-05 21:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow breadth MCO is now working on its 3rd week above the zero line
2008-08-05 21:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we see another push above the recent highs of this period, and we should expect another 2-3 weeks above the zero line
2008-08-05 21:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCO is now looking like it's trying to push higher with conviction
2008-08-05 21:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this might be a nice play 2008-08-05 21:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms...and a higher secondary high
2008-08-05 21:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCO will need to move above its secondary high to break above resistance
2008-08-05 21:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we look at the SML components, something different here, with the 10% component moving above zero, and finding support at this same line of neutrality
2008-08-05 21:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that the small caps are seeing good money flow right now (for whatever reason - makes no difference why)
2008-08-05 21:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM remains in corrective mode
2008-08-05 21:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...
2008-08-05 21:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's up to the bulls now to show some conviction
2008-08-05 21:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know what interest rate policy is
2008-08-05 21:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: earnings are behind us
2008-08-05 21:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: indicators are improving
2008-08-05 21:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: banks are stabilizing
2008-08-05 21:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: liquidity remains ample
2008-08-05 21:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing holding many back is the fear of the unknown
2008-08-05 21:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be political
2008-08-05 21:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I don't believe this to be the actual case - at least on a Presidential level
2008-08-05 21:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volume oscillators...
2008-08-05 21:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are positive...getting close to frothy
2008-08-05 21:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are finding support at their zero lines
2008-08-05 21:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are finding resistance at their zero lines
2008-08-05 21:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so..we're still indecisive
2008-08-05 21:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: makes sense
2008-08-05 21:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's up to the bulls to pile it on now
2008-08-05 21:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bears...they have full bellies, are relaxing, and watching the action from the bull side
2008-08-05 21:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .69
2008-08-05 21:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.02
2008-08-05 21:36:35 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The 55 dma on the NYSE TRIN has a sort of rounded top formation taking place
2008-08-05 21:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not bad considering that the NYSE Open 10 yesterday was 1.04
2008-08-05 21:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: noted DD
2008-08-05 21:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I would be looking for later on is to have the 21 day back to "oversold"
2008-08-05 21:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then I would be more inclined to believe that a important bottom would be in place
2008-08-05 21:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...a relief rally
2008-08-05 21:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .36
2008-08-05 21:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.00
2008-08-05 21:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .44
2008-08-05 21:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .99
2008-08-05 21:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...not bad after a 3% gain, eh?
2008-08-05 21:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Open 10's suggest that the odds favor more upside than downside
2008-08-05 21:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: minimal floor remains below
2008-08-05 21:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's see how the pattern unwinds
2008-08-05 21:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for trend follows
2008-08-05 21:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we would like to see the market open lower and then improve through out the day
2008-08-05 21:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we don't want to see is for a higher open and then lose steam during the day
2008-08-05 21:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and, of course, with our being "oversold" as we are
2008-08-05 21:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a higher open, and then seeing stability after lunch, and closing even higher, would be more in gear to continuing short covering
2008-08-05 21:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-08-05 21:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind this is the first day in 6 weeks that I've really looked over this data, so if there's anything I might be missing, please speak up
2008-08-05 21:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...I hope I was helpful
2008-08-05 21:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK, if there's nothing else
2008-08-05 21:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going to get going
2008-08-05 21:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-08-05 21:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2008-08-05 21:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-05 21:43:00 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: thank you, Dave
2008-08-05 21:43:15 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: thank you, Dave
2008-08-05 21:43:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thanks dave



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