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Posts: 5,161
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-08-04 15:28:33 rite01 G318: Just checking
2015-08-04 16:00:04 fib1618: good day
2015-08-04 16:00:07 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-08-04 16:00:51 rite01 G368: Doing Fine here... How was last week very productive?
2015-08-04 16:01:23 fib1618: was very slow
2015-08-04 16:01:37 fib1618: worry worry worry
2015-08-04 16:01:49 fib1618: must be a bottom [smile]
2015-08-04 16:02:17 rite01 G368: Sorry to hear well you always have the market to console you
2015-08-04 16:02:25 fib1618: ha!
2015-08-04 16:02:29 fib1618: "console"
2015-08-04 16:02:52 rite01 G368: terrible speller I r
2015-08-04 16:03:15 rite01 G368: the market to trade
2015-08-04 16:04:02 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-08-04 16:04:41 unc1998 G600: Hi Dave, nice chat room!
2015-08-04 16:05:33 rite01 G368: I may have to leave tonight early so could you confirm a short in XLU at the open from yesterday's daily MCO divergence plus a gap to fill?
2015-08-04 16:05:54 rite01 G368: today's open
2015-08-04 16:06:52 fib1618: thanks Brett...this will be the new digs, though I still have some logistics to figure out before this new format is finalized
2015-08-04 16:07:09 fib1618: let me check XLU - one sec
2015-08-04 16:07:55 rite01 G368: unc -- to mark a time on the chat just hover your cursor over the sentence and it will pop up
2015-08-04 16:08:11 fib1618: I wouldn't be short XLU at this point
2015-08-04 16:08:22 fib1618: the odds favor higher prices
2015-08-04 16:08:24 unc1998 G600: thanks rite....neat little feature
2015-08-04 16:08:32 rite01 G368: Just for today from yesterday readings
2015-08-04 16:08:38 fib1618: for today?
2015-08-04 16:08:42 rite01 G368: Yes
2015-08-04 16:08:58 fib1618: well...the MCO moved to deeply "overbought"
2015-08-04 16:09:07 fib1618: so some sort of pullback was indicated near term
2015-08-04 16:09:11 fib1618: looks like you got that today
2015-08-04 16:10:31 fib1618: also looks like a breakout and snapback to the breakout line as well on the price chart
2015-08-04 16:10:58 rite01 G368: Yesterdays MCO down and price up after going to recent highs I've found you usually get a one day pull back like we did
2015-08-04 16:11:34 rite01 G368: Snap back thanks I'd didn't see that
2015-08-04 16:12:34 fib1618:
2015-08-04 16:13:27 fib1618: you need to be careful that you don't over play your hand when you get these daily divergences
2015-08-04 16:13:51 fib1618: as every thrust is entitled to "level off" a bit
2015-08-04 16:14:05 fib1618: so as long as you keep it as a "hit and run" situation
2015-08-04 16:14:09 fib1618: you should be fine
2015-08-04 16:14:18 fib1618: remember that the McClellan tools are trend indicators
2015-08-04 16:14:35 fib1618: the MCO the short term...the MCSUM the intermediate term
2015-08-04 16:14:47 fib1618: both of which are now positive
2015-08-04 16:15:09 fib1618: context is always important
2015-08-04 16:15:19 fib1618: any other questions?
2015-08-04 16:15:25 rite01 G368: Like watching the TICK and waiting for the market to tip it's hand at the open like it did today looks like a high prob trades
2015-08-04 16:15:39 fib1618: yes...but it's a day trade
2015-08-04 16:15:50 fib1618: not one you can take a position and sit back and watch it
2015-08-04 16:16:20 rite01 G368: Right...From what I've learned here it seems
2015-08-04 16:16:46 rite01 G368: like I should start taking advantage of these when they come up
2015-08-04 16:16:53 fib1618: OK...I haven't seen much since the 25th
2015-08-04 16:16:58 fib1618: so let's get the charts up and get started
2015-08-04 16:17:04 fib1618: you could
2015-08-04 16:17:11 rite01 G368: Thanks for the confirmation
2015-08-04 16:17:15 fib1618: but you're in a different boat than most
2015-08-04 16:17:19 fib1618: if you're young
2015-08-04 16:17:26 fib1618: you can get away with these small blips if they don't pan out for you
2015-08-04 16:17:30 fib1618: but as you get older
2015-08-04 16:17:40 fib1618: and you're running out of time in case of making a mistake
2015-08-04 16:18:08 fib1618: it's probably better to use some sort of "play" account than it would be the money you will need to live off of later on down the road
2015-08-04 16:18:24 rite01 G368: Good advice will do
2015-08-04 16:18:32 fib1618: it's all tempting
2015-08-04 16:18:41 rite01 G368: Yes it is
2015-08-04 16:18:47 fib1618: but to be "tempted" is giving in to your emotional side
2015-08-04 16:18:50 fib1618: and you don't want that
2015-08-04 16:19:23 fib1618: OK...let's get to work
2015-08-04 16:19:59 fib1618: after moving to a deeply "oversold" reading of -77 on the 24th
2015-08-04 16:20:13 fib1618: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has since moved back above its zero line
2015-08-04 16:23:01 fib1618: and since Friday
2015-08-04 16:23:16 fib1618: has snapped back to and now under this same zero line
2015-08-04 16:23:29 fib1618: coming in today with a -2 change
2015-08-04 16:23:44 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-08-04 16:23:57 fib1618: and we see that we're attempting to hold natural support at the -500 level
2015-08-04 16:24:26 fib1618: finishing today with a reading of -484
2015-08-04 16:24:57 fib1618: the CO MCO components also remain on a crossover sell signal
2015-08-04 16:25:21 fib1618: and when looking at the price pattern of the NYA
2015-08-04 16:25:44 fib1618: it would appear that we're etching out a simple symmetrical triangle configuration at this time
2015-08-04 16:26:03 fib1618: with the internals suggesting that we are within the apex of this triangle and are about to move sharply out of this area over the next couple of days
2015-08-04 16:27:05 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:27:17 fib1618: and here too we are snapping back toward the zero line
2015-08-04 16:27:51 fib1618: after moving sharply higher from an minimal "oversold" reading of -58
2015-08-04 16:28:18 fib1618: noting here that this level found successful support for the 4th time in the last 9 months
2015-08-04 16:28:38 fib1618: whoops...sorry...make that 5 successful tests!
2015-08-04 16:29:15 fib1618: we also had a small point change tonight on the NYSE Composite MCO
2015-08-04 16:29:33 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-08-04 16:30:57 fib1618: looking at the components here
2015-08-04 16:31:10 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend is above the 5% Trend
2015-08-04 16:31:28 fib1618: with the 10% finding resistance at the zero line on Friday
2015-08-04 16:31:42 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-08-04 16:32:40 fib1618: and we see that the bulls have had a bit of a tough time shaking off the bear market default over the last week
2015-08-04 16:33:19 fib1618: as it currently struggles to close MCSUM gap resistance
2015-08-04 16:33:41 fib1618: so looks like that the reflex of last week has run its course
2015-08-04 16:34:28 fib1618: and some sort of back and fill is still needed before the buyers will try again to break the negative market bias of the last month
2015-08-04 16:34:49 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:34:56 fib1618: and it remains on a sell signal
2015-08-04 16:35:41 fib1618: as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM continues to dig deeper into negative territory
2015-08-04 16:36:53 fib1618: it should also be duly noted that we had a small point change as well on the NASDAQ breadth MCO as well today
2015-08-04 16:37:09 fib1618: so there's plenty of tension on the tape near term
2015-08-04 16:37:30 fib1618: small point change as well with the NDX breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:37:53 fib1618: making it 4 for 4 so far on the small point changes
2015-08-04 16:38:11 fib1618: and as we can see
2015-08-04 16:38:39 fib1618: the NDX MCO, it's components, and the MCSUM are all at or near their zero lines right now
2015-08-04 16:38:51 fib1618: so one side is about to take control of the action
2015-08-04 16:38:55 fib1618: and with the small point change
2015-08-04 16:39:06 fib1618: it could be a big move in that direction
2015-08-04 16:39:35 fib1618: small point change as well on the SPX breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:40:07 fib1618: as the MCO, the components, and the MCSUM are also at or near their zero lines as well
2015-08-04 16:40:54 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:41:03 fib1618: and we see that it moved down and through its zero line today
2015-08-04 16:41:26 fib1618: did so yesterday...but followed through on that today
2015-08-04 16:41:46 fib1618: and this could be a tip off of what we could expect to happen from the current tension on the market tape
2015-08-04 16:42:21 fib1618: same thing with the Dow breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:43:16 fib1618: but notice here that this MCO moved to a highly "oversold" reading of -97 before this compression was released and the MCO went screaming north to just above its zero line
2015-08-04 16:43:26 fib1618: usually when we see this kind of action
2015-08-04 16:43:47 fib1618: it's usually short lived and rarely important as a reversal point
2015-08-04 16:44:40 fib1618: so let's look for further backing and filling before we'll likely see a more stable attempt to break the back of the short term bears
2015-08-04 16:45:13 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO finds itself back to its zero line now
2015-08-04 16:45:46 fib1618: after washing out with a -81 reading on the 24th
2015-08-04 16:46:49 fib1618: we also had a hard reversal from "oversold" levels last week in the SML breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:47:05 fib1618: as it stalled right at its zero line
2015-08-04 16:47:18 fib1618: small point change here as well
2015-08-04 16:47:45 fib1618: and basically no change today on the TM breadth MCO
2015-08-04 16:48:11 fib1618: as market participants have now evened up going into the rest of the week
2015-08-04 16:48:18 fib1618: so...
2015-08-04 16:48:54 fib1618: it looks like the market provided us with a simple reflex bounce from highly "oversold" levels last week
2015-08-04 16:50:01 fib1618: but we still don't have enough strength behind this to allow prices to move above their various overhead EMA areas of resistance on the price charts
2015-08-04 16:50:36 fib1618: sort of like jumping on a trampoline and starting to arc lower again having reached your pinnacle on the jump
2015-08-04 16:51:22 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's
2015-08-04 16:52:03 fib1618: but before we do
2015-08-04 16:52:20 fib1618: I just noticed that the XLP data is now on a buy signal
2015-08-04 16:52:40 fib1618: may had been before I left..don't remember
2015-08-04 16:53:16 fib1618: and as mentioned earlier
2015-08-04 16:53:25 rite01 G368: Yes it was early last week
2015-08-04 16:53:29 fib1618: the XLU is looking good now as well for the long
2015-08-04 16:53:42 fib1618: we'll go over those charts tomorrow
2015-08-04 16:53:49 fib1618: oh yea..we have 3 chats this week
2015-08-04 16:53:58 fib1618: so we'll be doing this again on Wednesday
2015-08-04 16:54:10 rite01 G368: XLU also had a mid range close yesterday with an up day the day before
2015-08-04 16:54:30 rite01 G368: to confirm a short for today only
2015-08-04 16:54:37 fib1618: and you had the sharp pull back today
2015-08-04 16:54:43 fib1618: good job!
2015-08-04 16:55:00 fib1618: OK...both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's also have small point changes tonight
2015-08-04 16:55:02 rite01 G368: The more signals the better
2015-08-04 16:55:08 fib1618: so we are fully compressed near term
2015-08-04 16:55:21 fib1618: and a move of at least 1% is about to take place
2015-08-04 16:55:24 fib1618: for the SPX
2015-08-04 16:55:38 fib1618: that would be a move of 21 points
2015-08-04 16:55:46 fib1618: so you day traders out there...have fun!
2015-08-04 16:56:25 fib1618: small point change as well with the NASDAQ volume MCO
2015-08-04 16:56:30 fib1618: not so with the NDX
2015-08-04 16:56:44 fib1618: but like its breadth cousin
2015-08-04 16:56:52 fib1618: it's also challenging its zero line right now
2015-08-04 16:57:42 fib1618: gosh...I hope this isn't a taste of what's to come for the rest of August [smile]
2015-08-04 16:58:12 fib1618: anyway...the market is primed and ready to release some internal tension in the next couple of days
2015-08-04 16:58:32 fib1618: small point change on the SPX volume MCO
2015-08-04 16:59:26 fib1618: both the OEX and Dow volume MCO's are echoing their breadth cousins right now
2015-08-04 17:00:18 fib1618: getting mixed signals between the MID and SML volume MCO's
2015-08-04 17:00:32 fib1618: boy...when this unwinds, it should be a doozy
2015-08-04 17:01:11 fib1618: tough to know which direction we're likely to break first
2015-08-04 17:01:13 fib1618: however
2015-08-04 17:01:26 fib1618: the intermediate term stuff gives the nod to the sellers near term
2015-08-04 17:01:42 fib1618: whether than can do something with the ball or not remains to be seen
2015-08-04 17:02:03 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's look
2015-08-04 17:02:43 fib1618: no help there
2015-08-04 17:02:45 fib1618: mixed
2015-08-04 17:02:57 fib1618: with the CVI's and VTO's near neutral
2015-08-04 17:03:13 fib1618: while the STVO's are minimally "overbought"
2015-08-04 17:03:23 fib1618: checking the TRIN
2015-08-04 17:03:45 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.06
2015-08-04 17:04:09 fib1618: OPEN 10 at 1.10
2015-08-04 17:04:16 fib1618: "oversold"
2015-08-04 17:04:32 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.18
2015-08-04 17:04:49 fib1618: OPEN 10 at .97
2015-08-04 17:05:15 fib1618: so working off the near "overbought" readings of 2 weeks ago
2015-08-04 17:05:32 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.11
2015-08-04 17:05:46 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.03
2015-08-04 17:05:49 fib1618: so...
2015-08-04 17:05:51 fib1618: near term
2015-08-04 17:06:04 fib1618: we could go either way out of the current triangle configurations
2015-08-04 17:06:08 fib1618: however
2015-08-04 17:06:30 fib1618: with the internals not showing that much vigor with last weeks technical bounce
2015-08-04 17:07:18 fib1618: the reasonable expectation here is for some additional pullback from here to see whether or not the sellers have it them to push their opinion beyond trading range support
2015-08-04 17:07:28 fib1618: give me a moment to look around a bit
2015-08-04 17:07:48 fib1618: if you have any questions or additional thoughts, do share them
2015-08-04 17:09:23 fib1618: looks like AAII sentiment is showing a bit of a topside toward the bears right now
2015-08-04 17:09:50 fib1618: and with the high Open 10's, that could be enough to keep prices from declining in any important way just in case of a shake out
2015-08-04 17:10:58 unc1998 G600: i think we have payroll numbers out this week
2015-08-04 17:11:53 fib1618: I'm still a bit behind on things
2015-08-04 17:11:55 fib1618: thanks
2015-08-04 17:11:59 fib1618: let me check what's coming
2015-08-04 17:12:32 fib1618: yep...ADP is tomorrow
2015-08-04 17:12:55 fib1618: the market is neutral going into the jobs numbers
2015-08-04 17:13:13 fib1618: treasury refunding announcement
2015-08-04 17:13:30 fib1618: PMI and ISM
2015-08-04 17:13:55 fib1618: chain store sales on Thursday
2015-08-04 17:13:58 fib1618: should be poor
2015-08-04 17:14:04 fib1618: and then Jobs numbers on Friday
2015-08-04 17:14:09 fib1618: I got to tell you
2015-08-04 17:14:17 fib1618: no one is happy with business right now
2015-08-04 17:14:30 fib1618: and looking at the Bond CEF A/D data this weekend
2015-08-04 17:14:44 fib1618: it looks like players are now starting to bet on no change in rates for September
2015-08-04 17:14:56 fib1618: and if the jobs numbers are poor this week
2015-08-04 17:15:08 unc1998 G600: I saw in your weekly breadth note of the 1980 price level expectation on the spx
2015-08-04 17:15:12 fib1618: we might be looking for another FED stimulus
2015-08-04 17:15:24 fib1618: yea
2015-08-04 17:15:44 fib1618: that was triggered before I left
2015-08-04 17:15:54 fib1618: and remains a target for now
2015-08-04 17:16:02 fib1618: as the buyers didn't really show up on the reflex
2015-08-04 17:16:20 fib1618: it looks like a better, harder capitulation maybe needed
2015-08-04 17:16:23 fib1618: the good news though
2015-08-04 17:16:24 fib1618: is that
2015-08-04 17:16:38 fib1618: we have the Preferred stocks getting sponsorship
2015-08-04 17:16:59 fib1618: and now it looks like money is moving back into the defensive issues (XLP and XLU)
2015-08-04 17:17:27 fib1618: so...maybe a hard sell off because of the strong dollar and businesses starting to gasp for air
2015-08-04 17:17:46 fib1618: but then lower rates should flush the system with liquidity again
2015-08-04 17:17:49 fib1618: the bottom line for now
2015-08-04 17:17:52 fib1618: is that
2015-08-04 17:17:57 fib1618: as long as gold continues to decline
2015-08-04 17:18:22 fib1618: that is our main proxy as far as what the FED is likely to do over the next couple of months
2015-08-04 17:18:25 fib1618: ideally
2015-08-04 17:18:34 fib1618: a quick move to the $985 target level for gold
2015-08-04 17:18:44 fib1618: and then we see a hard and fast reversal of sorts
2015-08-04 17:19:03 fib1618: and that, along with a stronger Bond and High Yield response
2015-08-04 17:19:12 fib1618: that should keep things from falling below 1980
2015-08-04 17:19:52 unc1998 G600: Question on the Canadian Venture Exchange....during the last few months you had the UD line making all time highs and AD all time lows.  Have you seen this situation often in the past?
2015-08-04 17:20:18 fib1618: when liquidity is as ample as it is
2015-08-04 17:20:23 fib1618: money can move into stocks
2015-08-04 17:20:36 fib1618: but it will tend to be myopic on where it's parked
2015-08-04 17:20:48 fib1618: look at the US markets at the 2000 top
2015-08-04 17:20:52 fib1618: and you will see the same thing
2015-08-04 17:20:59 fib1618: the NYUD was making new highs
2015-08-04 17:21:04 fib1618: the NYAD moving to lower lows
2015-08-04 17:21:17 unc1998 G600: I'll check it out, thanks
2015-08-04 17:21:31 fib1618: breadth gives us the how broad the participation is
2015-08-04 17:21:47 fib1618: while volume tells us how much of it is available to move prices along
2015-08-04 17:21:53 fib1618: when we get pattern tops or bear markets
2015-08-04 17:22:10 fib1618: money will continue to move into areas of which it deems as being "undervalued"
2015-08-04 17:22:23 fib1618: but depending on the weight of the product
2015-08-04 17:22:43 fib1618: can make a difference as far as how prices will reflect these movements
2015-08-04 17:22:55 fib1618: one sec on the NYUD and NYAD...I'll get the longer term charts
2015-08-04 17:26:18 fib1618: here you go -
2015-08-04 17:26:42 unc1998 G600: thanks
2015-08-04 17:26:45 fib1618: you can see how we got less and less participation breadth wise
2015-08-04 17:27:05 fib1618: while volume was being used to keep the higher weighted stocks from following the leadership
2015-08-04 17:27:16 fib1618: let me check the sec
2015-08-04 17:27:37 fib1618: it's also a good example that it's the NYUD line that controls the direction of prices
2015-08-04 17:28:04 unc1998 G600: yes indeed
2015-08-04 17:28:37 fib1618: -50
2015-08-04 17:28:47 fib1618: so no change from the weekend
2015-08-04 17:28:50 fib1618: and so being
2015-08-04 17:29:10 fib1618: the odds favor a bearish resolution out of the current pattern compression point
2015-08-04 17:29:21 fib1618: right now
2015-08-04 17:29:38 fib1618: with everything fairly balanced between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2015-08-04 17:29:58 fib1618: I would position for "hit and run" trades for now
2015-08-04 17:30:00 fib1618: or stand aside
2015-08-04 17:30:21 fib1618: the sellers have yet to follow through on their momentum gained in July
2015-08-04 17:30:35 fib1618: but the buyers don't seem to want too much to do with things right now
2015-08-04 17:30:44 fib1618: the main problem right now though
2015-08-04 17:30:54 fib1618: is with the August period being the slowest trading month of the year
2015-08-04 17:31:07 fib1618: we will tend to get exaggerated moves because of this
2015-08-04 17:31:35 fib1618: hopefully in another day or so will have a rhythm to work with
2015-08-04 17:31:53 fib1618: for now...sitting on one's hands sounds like a good place to be
2015-08-04 17:32:05 fib1618: anything else?
2015-08-04 17:32:27 fib1618: the just added High Yield advance/decline line is quite interesting
2015-08-04 17:33:03 fib1618: hopefully it will give us a sharper point on our trading pencil to work moving forward
2015-08-04 17:33:34 fib1618: trading ranges are a bitch, aren't they?
2015-08-04 17:33:52 unc1998 G600: lol yes
2015-08-04 17:34:17 unc1998 G600: what would your intermediate target be on the SML?  670?
2015-08-04 17:34:23 fib1618: let me check
2015-08-04 17:34:30 fib1618: I'll check the RUT as well
2015-08-04 17:35:23 fib1618: well...I do believe that the initial target was 700 or so
2015-08-04 17:35:27 fib1618: and we met that
2015-08-04 17:35:42 fib1618: 675 is now doable
2015-08-04 17:35:58 unc1998 G600: gotcha, thanks
2015-08-04 17:36:05 fib1618: figure the mid point of the consolidation of January
2015-08-04 17:36:23 fib1618: let me check the RUT
2015-08-04 17:36:48 fib1618: 1170/1175
2015-08-04 17:37:04 fib1618: the RUT looks to be a bit stronger here
2015-08-04 17:37:16 fib1618: could be the re-balance of June
2015-08-04 17:37:37 fib1618: price pattern wise
2015-08-04 17:37:50 fib1618: it appears we're about to fall off a cliff of sorts
2015-08-04 17:38:12 fib1618: the deeper we go
2015-08-04 17:38:15 unc1998 G600: looks nested
2015-08-04 17:38:25 fib1618: the better for the longer term health
2015-08-04 17:38:31 fib1618: at the lower levels...yes
2015-08-04 17:39:19 fib1618: anything else gentlemen?
2015-08-04 17:39:32 unc1998 G600: thanks Dave
2015-08-04 17:39:36 fib1618: the one thing to remember here
2015-08-04 17:39:49 fib1618: the market is trying its best to frustrate the majority
2015-08-04 17:39:54 fib1618: and to that end
2015-08-04 17:40:11 fib1618: to become complacent that "a" move isn't the beginning of something
2015-08-04 17:40:25 fib1618: and that will leave you holding the bag
2015-08-04 17:40:34 fib1618: so lets keep vigilant here
2015-08-04 17:40:58 fib1618: day by day we're getting that much closer to a really big move here
2015-08-04 17:41:06 fib1618: just a matter of when
2015-08-04 17:41:08 fib1618: OK...with that
2015-08-04 17:41:11 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-08-04 17:41:19 fib1618: remember we have another crack at this tomorrow
2015-08-04 17:41:22 unc1998 G600: goodnight all
2015-08-04 17:41:28 fib1618: so maybe we'll see if there's been a decision or not
2015-08-04 17:41:32 fib1618: have a good one
2015-08-04 17:41:34 fib1618: good night

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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