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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-08-27 16:00:46 fib1618: and a hearty good day to everyone!
2015-08-27 16:00:58 fib1618: how's it going?
2015-08-27 16:01:07 fib1618: anyone need any Dramamine?
2015-08-27 16:01:41 fib1618: [smile]
2015-08-27 16:02:34 rite01: I've noticed something last 3 days and want your thoughts
2015-08-27 16:03:34 fib1618: fire away!
2015-08-27 16:04:04 rite01: Last three days 2 of Zweig’s buy signals 1. Chapter 10 in his book last paragraph mentions reasons low probability of lower than 15% pull back  2. today one of his 9 to 1 volume days then add
2015-08-27 16:04:29 rite01: Last Tuesday’s MCO divergence you have possible monster rally…
2015-08-27 16:04:49 fib1618: But we don't have MCO divergence
2015-08-27 16:05:01 fib1618: but let me check the volume
2015-08-27 16:05:58 rite01: Daily divergences I've noticed at major tops and bottoms work more often that not. I could be wrong.
2015-08-27 16:06:24 fib1618: you can have intraday divergences
2015-08-27 16:06:39 fib1618: but remember that the MCO is a daily, close only indicator
2015-08-27 16:06:49 fib1618: I haven't found it beneficial intraday
2015-08-27 16:06:55 fib1618: right now
2015-08-27 16:07:12 fib1618: all we knew on Tuesday was that we were deeply "oversold"
2015-08-27 16:07:18 fib1618: and due for a big reflex
2015-08-27 16:07:34 fib1618: with the Dow up close to 1000 points in 2 days
2015-08-27 16:07:41 fib1618: I think that would qualify
2015-08-27 16:07:45 fib1618: also remember
2015-08-27 16:07:58 fib1618: when the MCO gets into deeply "oversold" territory
2015-08-27 16:08:04 fib1618: it's not so much a sign of weakness
2015-08-27 16:08:14 fib1618: then it's usually a sign of an important price low
2015-08-27 16:08:31 fib1618: doesn't mean we won't test this same low, or even move below it
2015-08-27 16:08:47 fib1618: but with two TRIN readings of over 3.00 within a week's time
2015-08-27 16:09:03 fib1618: and with low volume
2015-08-27 16:09:13 fib1618: like we talked about on Tuesday
2015-08-27 16:09:24 fib1618: volatility was going to be over the top for a while
2015-08-27 16:09:33 fib1618: and why it's better to stand aside and watch
2015-08-27 16:09:37 fib1618: now
2015-08-27 16:09:52 fib1618: don't be surprised if we slam lower by the time we meet up again next week
2015-08-27 16:10:01 fib1618: this is far from over
2015-08-27 16:10:17 rite01: I'm still in cash
2015-08-27 16:10:45 fib1618: you just want to remain disciplined
2015-08-27 16:10:58 fib1618: here's what's really important
2015-08-27 16:11:34 fib1618: did the rally of the last two days see any improvement in the BETS?
2015-08-27 16:11:44 rite01: no
2015-08-27 16:11:55 fib1618: probably not
2015-08-27 16:11:56 fib1618: for fun
2015-08-27 16:11:59 fib1618: let me check
2015-08-27 16:12:01 fib1618: brb
2015-08-27 16:13:10 fib1618: do you remember the number on Tuesday?
2015-08-27 16:13:16 rite01: -60
2015-08-27 16:13:21 fib1618: today's reading...
2015-08-27 16:13:23 fib1618: -65
2015-08-27 16:13:46 fib1618: and we're real close to moving to a -80 within a week
2015-08-27 16:14:35 fib1618: what you've seen here then is a classic bear market rally
2015-08-27 16:15:02 rite01: plus we need two 9 to 1 vol to signal a buy
2015-08-27 16:15:28 fib1618: but also remember one VERY important condition to the Zweig Indicator
2015-08-27 16:15:44 fib1618: that these signals tend to happen at the END of a prolonged bear market
2015-08-27 16:15:51 fib1618: 1982, for example
2015-08-27 16:15:57 rite01: Good to know thanks
2015-08-27 16:16:00 fib1618: 2003
2015-08-27 16:16:02 fib1618: 2009
2015-08-27 16:16:16 fib1618: then they mean something
2015-08-27 16:17:10 fib1618: that's the main reason why I mentioned that I didn't believe that we would get a thrust signal when I made the post
2015-08-27 16:17:16 fib1618: let me check today's number
2015-08-27 16:17:17 fib1618: one sec
2015-08-27 16:17:36 fib1618: SMA - 49%
2015-08-27 16:17:53 fib1618: sorry...that WAS the EMA!
2015-08-27 16:17:54 fib1618: nice
2015-08-27 16:18:12 fib1618: SMA at 43%
2015-08-27 16:18:29 fib1618: so not bad considering that we got to 29% on Tuesday
2015-08-27 16:18:51 fib1618: at this point
2015-08-27 16:18:56 fib1618: one thing we do know
2015-08-27 16:19:08 fib1618: is that the SPX breadth MCO did not move lower on Wednesday
2015-08-27 16:19:19 fib1618: so the 2250 longer term price target is still on the table
2015-08-27 16:19:31 fib1618: but since we moved to a -143 reading
2015-08-27 16:19:48 fib1618: it's going to take some time to pick up the pieces and sweep away the dust of the crash
2015-08-27 16:19:59 fib1618: because of this
2015-08-27 16:20:30 fib1618: volatility is going to continue to be wild and woolly
2015-08-27 16:20:45 fib1618: OK...any other questions or comments before we dive in??
2015-08-27 16:21:53 fib1618: OK...let's get going then
2015-08-27 16:22:01 fib1618: after bottoming out on Tuesday
2015-08-27 16:22:20 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now fully snapped back to its zero line in just 2 trading days!
2015-08-27 16:22:34 fib1618: that's a remarkable accomplishment on any level you wish to use
2015-08-27 16:22:56 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-08-27 16:23:13 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend has now snapped back up to the 5% Trend
2015-08-27 16:23:31 fib1618: so between the MCO and its components
2015-08-27 16:23:40 fib1618: the reflex rally from the mini crash can now be called complete
2015-08-27 16:24:01 fib1618: and that the market should begin to back and fill below the MCO zero line over the next several days
2015-08-27 16:24:18 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NYA
2015-08-27 16:24:23 fib1618: and we have now filled Monday's gap
2015-08-27 16:24:24 fib1618: AND
2015-08-27 16:24:28 fib1618: we are actually up for the week!
2015-08-27 16:24:37 rite01: so that how it works :blush:
2015-08-27 16:25:09 fib1618: by .34%
2015-08-27 16:26:30 fib1618: sorry...doing some calculations
2015-08-27 16:28:16 fib1618: we also closed just above (10,230) the .382 Fibonacci trading target for wave 4 which was at 10,122 on a closing basis
2015-08-27 16:29:00 fib1618: so any further strength here would then confirm a completed five wave structure with Tuesday's close
2015-08-27 16:29:45 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-08-27 16:29:54 fib1618: and here we actually closed just above the zero line today
2015-08-27 16:30:03 fib1618: with a reading of +2
2015-08-27 16:30:07 fib1618: as with the CO data
2015-08-27 16:30:25 fib1618: we also see that the MCO components are both below their zero lines
2015-08-27 16:30:39 fib1618: and the 10% Trend has now snapped back to the 5% Trend
2015-08-27 16:30:52 fib1618: this would then indicate two things on a technical basis
2015-08-27 16:31:06 fib1618: one...we're back to a corrective sequence...however slight
2015-08-27 16:31:57 fib1618: two...that the technical expectation that we look for after moving to high levels of imbalance in the MCO, a move back to or toward the zero line, has now been met as well
2015-08-27 16:32:12 fib1618: indicating that the reflex rally is complete...or nearly so
2015-08-27 16:33:03 fib1618: snapback to the MCO zero line has also been accomplished by the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-08-27 16:33:27 fib1618: so far then...we are back to having balance between buyers and sellers at this time
2015-08-27 16:33:47 fib1618: where one side can now take control of the short term action
2015-08-27 16:34:13 fib1618: wow...this is quite amazing
2015-08-27 16:34:28 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line in 2 days as well
2015-08-27 16:34:45 fib1618: coming in today with a reading of -3
2015-08-27 16:35:02 fib1618: so the bears, have once again, ran for cover
2015-08-27 16:35:18 fib1618: and we're back to being neutral overall
2015-08-27 16:35:25 fib1618: on a short term trending basis, that is
2015-08-27 16:36:12 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is showing that its reflex was not as robust in this 2 day sequence
2015-08-27 16:36:27 fib1618: coming in today with a -14 reading
2015-08-27 16:36:46 fib1618: with a MCO component snapback also complete as well
2015-08-27 16:36:56 fib1618: so we're not surprised that we're in sync here
2015-08-27 16:37:19 fib1618: but we are seeing that things are not in complete agreement at this stage
2015-08-27 16:37:21 fib1618: and really
2015-08-27 16:38:01 fib1618: what else could you ask for considering how disseminated things have been over the last week?
2015-08-27 16:38:37 fib1618: it's sort of like a natural disaster where everyone knows that something bad has happened
2015-08-27 16:39:02 fib1618: but the news reports of how bad it was are coming in fast, but not nearly verifiable
2015-08-27 16:39:04 thespookyone: On the SPX, I find the razor close proximity of those two lows interesting...
2015-08-27 16:39:27 fib1618: SPX price...MCO??
2015-08-27 16:39:44 thespookyone: price, with the second low slightly higher
2015-08-27 16:40:11 fib1618: well...Tuesday we had a lower close than that of Monday
2015-08-27 16:40:38 fib1618: but the MCO lows were within 4 points of each other
2015-08-27 16:40:49 fib1618: and that's important information
2015-08-27 16:41:07 fib1618: given what happened with prices later on after the -148 low
2015-08-27 16:41:42 fib1618: OH...maybe you're referring to the intraday lows of Monday and the closing lows of Tuesday?
2015-08-27 16:42:08 thespookyone: after we came off the bottom, we came back to a higher low
2015-08-27 16:42:08 fib1618: as if there were a floor that should not be breached
2015-08-27 16:42:17 fib1618: yes
2015-08-27 16:42:49 fib1618: today was important though because it destroyed any chance of a larger triangle on the daily
2015-08-27 16:43:20 fib1618: which would had made our lives so much more easier [smile]
2015-08-27 16:43:52 fib1618: .382 was at 1956
2015-08-27 16:44:22 fib1618: .50 retracement is at 1984
2015-08-27 16:44:31 fib1618: we closed at 1987
2015-08-27 16:44:50 fib1618: so if we look at this purely as a chartist
2015-08-27 16:44:59 fib1618: the 50% retracement should contain the pattern
2015-08-27 16:45:06 fib1618: just as we saw in the price of gold this week
2015-08-27 16:45:29 fib1618: but, in any event, we have so much more information now to work with
2015-08-27 16:45:43 fib1618: that we can provide a new chapter in our blueprint
2015-08-27 16:45:58 thespookyone: I wonder if it will be contained, given today's breadth?
2015-08-27 16:45:59 fib1618: notice also
2015-08-27 16:46:16 fib1618: that this recoil in the SPX breadth MCO to zero
2015-08-27 16:46:32 fib1618: has now halted the downside momentum of the SPX breadth MCSUM right at horizontal support
2015-08-27 16:46:44 fib1618: where we thought on Tuesday that it was unlikely to hold
2015-08-27 16:47:03 fib1618: let me check the raw sec
2015-08-27 16:47:19 fib1618: 2869/357
2015-08-27 16:47:29 fib1618: a little over 7:1
2015-08-27 16:47:41 fib1618: sorry
2015-08-27 16:47:43 fib1618: more than that
2015-08-27 16:47:58 fib1618: 8:1
2015-08-27 16:48:08 thespookyone: yep
2015-08-27 16:48:10 fib1618: in fact
2015-08-27 16:48:31 fib1618: 2856 advancing issues would had been a bulls eye on the 8:1 ratio
2015-08-27 16:48:45 fib1618: let me double check something..
2015-08-27 16:49:29 fib1618: that was after a day of nearly 4:1 to the good
2015-08-27 16:49:45 fib1618: we mentioned earlier
2015-08-27 16:50:18 fib1618: that the Zweig EMA number today reached 49
2015-08-27 16:50:29 fib1618: but the BETS is down 5 points
2015-08-27 16:50:49 fib1618: and people want to take a longer term position in this mess?
2015-08-27 16:50:51 fib1618: good luck
2015-08-27 16:51:18 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO made it back to a -18 today
2015-08-27 16:51:41 fib1618: snapback also complete between the OEX MCO 10% and 5% Trends
2015-08-27 16:51:58 fib1618: same situation with the Dow
2015-08-27 16:52:06 fib1618: and the MID
2015-08-27 16:52:11 fib1618: we're in total sync here
2015-08-27 16:52:19 fib1618: SML
2015-08-27 16:52:35 fib1618: and the Total Market
2015-08-27 16:52:40 fib1618: so..
2015-08-27 16:52:43 fib1618: snapback complete
2015-08-27 16:53:28 fib1618: and now we begin the grueling game of building a foundation
2015-08-27 16:53:37 fib1618: right now
2015-08-27 16:53:54 fib1618: as much of a vacuum we had at the lows of Tuesday that needed to be filled
2015-08-27 16:54:16 fib1618: the equal and opposite can now be said
2015-08-27 16:54:31 fib1618: so we should look for another swoon event near term
2015-08-27 16:54:50 fib1618: let's see how the volume MCO's did in this reflex
2015-08-27 16:55:32 fib1618: pretty much a mirror image of breadth
2015-08-27 16:55:35 fib1618: snapback complete
2015-08-27 16:55:40 thespookyone: does looking for a quick drop not contradict the leading nature of the last two breadth days?
2015-08-27 16:56:10 fib1618: components below zero...with the 10% and 5% at the same levels
2015-08-27 16:56:19 fib1618: not really
2015-08-27 16:56:52 fib1618: what we want to see with thrusts like this is a better platform to launch from
2015-08-27 16:57:12 fib1618:'s very much like "the arm in the bathtub" analogy
2015-08-27 16:57:57 fib1618: we saw breadth with over 3000 issues declining on Monday
2015-08-27 16:58:36 fib1618: so as you take your forearm and swish the water to one end of the tub and take your arm out
2015-08-27 16:58:51 fib1618: you're going to get an equal and opposite surge in the other direction
2015-08-27 16:59:08 fib1618: what we have to wait for now is for this back and forth action to subside
2015-08-27 16:59:38 fib1618: what we do have here though moving forward
2015-08-27 16:59:45 fib1618: is one heck of a technical Flag to work from
2015-08-27 16:59:54 thespookyone: Thanks. Just for fun, the drop this afternoon was a perfect .382 retrace of the second move up, before then turning North again
2015-08-27 16:59:58 fib1618: where there will likely be a series of rising bottoms as we move along
2015-08-27 17:00:08 fib1618: I saw that
2015-08-27 17:00:18 fib1618: didn't know it was at 38% though...
2015-08-27 17:00:35 fib1618: and for those who use the intraday TICK
2015-08-27 17:01:09 fib1618: we got our buy signal at about 2:15 eastern time on Wednesday to cover short and move long
2015-08-27 17:01:20 fib1618: up until then
2015-08-27 17:01:30 fib1618: we still didn't have any real clarity
2015-08-27 17:01:38 fib1618: it could had turned into another Tuesday last hour
2015-08-27 17:01:57 fib1618: but once we moved above, and then tested the EMA's, and then went higher, that was the trigger
2015-08-27 17:02:13 thespookyone: yes, one of my guys is now in charge of watching that, and reporting it [smile]
2015-08-27 17:02:41 fib1618: [smile]
2015-08-27 17:02:48 fib1618: aye aye captain!
2015-08-27 17:02:51 thespookyone: it's GOLD, thanks!
2015-08-27 17:02:55 fib1618: np
2015-08-27 17:03:09 fib1618: simplicity is always the best go to in this business
2015-08-27 17:03:25 fib1618: if you find something that works consistently
2015-08-27 17:03:40 fib1618: the only thing standing in your way of making the right trade is your emotional bias
2015-08-27 17:03:56 thespookyone: SO TRUE
2015-08-27 17:04:12 fib1618: notice today how the TICK hugged the 39 day time period EMA
2015-08-27 17:04:54 fib1618: before it launched into the final hour
2015-08-27 17:05:29 fib1618: use it enough and you'll come up with some pretty good guidelines to work from
2015-08-27 17:05:32 fib1618: but again
2015-08-27 17:05:43 fib1618: this is more for scalpers...and option traders...intraday stuff
2015-08-27 17:05:54 thespookyone: yep
2015-08-27 17:06:16 fib1618: OK...back to breadth...and the sectors
2015-08-27 17:06:19 fib1618: this should be fun
2015-08-27 17:06:39 fib1618: when you look at these charts
2015-08-27 17:06:54 fib1618: notice the huge intraday range of Monday's opening
2015-08-27 17:07:17 fib1618: it was like 2008...and the flash crash
2015-08-27 17:07:31 fib1618: so one could say that the computers helped to perpetuate the sell off
2015-08-27 17:07:56 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2015-08-27 17:08:25 fib1618: after cleaning out the price stops using the January price lows as a proxy
2015-08-27 17:08:38 fib1618: interesting to note
2015-08-27 17:08:57 fib1618: that the XLY breadth MCSUM is attempting to find natural support right now at the -250 level
2015-08-27 17:09:17 fib1618: coming in today with a reading of -225
2015-08-27 17:10:16 fib1618: it's also interesting to note that we only challenged the MCO lows of last January but did not violate them
2015-08-27 17:10:27 fib1618: which suggests that even if we see continued price decay
2015-08-27 17:10:36 fib1618: these same price lows are likely to hold
2015-08-27 17:11:14 fib1618: if the technical damage of the last week is as vast as it looks at first glance
2015-08-27 17:11:40 fib1618: then we should be looking at the price floor of a trading range
2015-08-27 17:11:49 fib1618: could be a double bottom
2015-08-27 17:12:27 fib1618: but I always shy away from such ideas until we see an actual close of this same area to be challenged
2015-08-27 17:12:36 thespookyone: Elliott wise, it didn't take out the last "4"
2015-08-27 17:13:04 fib1618: that would be correct
2015-08-27 17:13:06 fib1618: nice bit of spotting there
2015-08-27 17:13:18 fib1618: if it was a extended 3rd wave on the way up
2015-08-27 17:13:31 fib1618: then the January lows would likely be wave 4 of that structure
2015-08-27 17:13:41 fib1618: and should hold corrective support
2015-08-27 17:14:05 fib1618: hmmm
2015-08-27 17:14:12 fib1618: looking at the XLP breadth MCSUM
2015-08-27 17:14:23 fib1618: and we're also attempting to hold support at the -250 level
2015-08-27 17:15:05 fib1618: the bounce here though isn't as strong as it was with the XLY
2015-08-27 17:15:20 fib1618: and this would question the validity of the notion of a "V" bottom
2015-08-27 17:16:03 thespookyone: It did come from deep, though, does that matter?
2015-08-27 17:16:07 fib1618: as history has shown that the defensive issues, such as the XLP, XLV and XLU, usually firm up first before the other sectors
2015-08-27 17:16:16 fib1618: well, everything matters
2015-08-27 17:16:57 fib1618: but we have been in this business long enough to know that if the defensive issues don't lead out of a bottom
2015-08-27 17:17:08 fib1618: it's like the broader market (the troops) not leading the generals
2015-08-27 17:17:28 fib1618: we never like to see the Dow and the OEX leading the broader market
2015-08-27 17:17:38 thespookyone: No
2015-08-27 17:17:40 fib1618: as more times than not we see a pull back
2015-08-27 17:17:44 fib1618: same idea here
2015-08-27 17:17:53 fib1618: and if we think about it
2015-08-27 17:18:26 fib1618: since it's usually Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie that usually gravitate toward these same defensive issues
2015-08-27 17:19:02 fib1618: this would also suggest that most of this is more of an asset allocation play that it wouldn't include full participation
2015-08-27 17:19:15 fib1618: if I were the Aunt and Uncle
2015-08-27 17:19:22 fib1618: I wouldn't step anywhere near this market
2015-08-27 17:19:36 fib1618: as I saw what happened in 2001 and 2008
2015-08-27 17:19:44 fib1618: the thing about "crash like" events though
2015-08-27 17:19:55 fib1618: is that they tend to provide an emotional response
2015-08-27 17:20:12 fib1618: we already know that bull markets climb a wall of worry
2015-08-27 17:20:30 fib1618: so if traders are not worrying
2015-08-27 17:20:33 fib1618: they panic
2015-08-27 17:20:55 fib1618: in the olden days when specialists ruled the roost
2015-08-27 17:21:15 fib1618: they would drop the market in order to accumulate inventory at "wholesale" pricing
2015-08-27 17:21:28 fib1618: so that they could distribute this same stock as it was being marked up
2015-08-27 17:21:43 fib1618: the same concept continues today
2015-08-27 17:22:15 fib1618: as, underneath is all, price valuations are solely based on supply and demand factors
2015-08-27 17:22:36 fib1618: for several months then...demand was waning
2015-08-27 17:22:46 fib1618: well...not really, I guess
2015-08-27 17:22:55 thespookyone: Do you think it is programmed into the algo of the machines?
2015-08-27 17:23:06 fib1618: as demand remained consistent enough to keep prices from decaying
2015-08-27 17:23:13 fib1618: to be honest
2015-08-27 17:23:20 fib1618: I'm not smart enough to really know
2015-08-27 17:23:26 fib1618: when I worked on the floor of the PSE many, many moons ago
2015-08-27 17:23:38 fib1618: it was easy to know who and what was moving prices
2015-08-27 17:23:55 fib1618: but today it's as simple as a keystroke
2015-08-27 17:24:17 fib1618: even in the 80's much of buy and sell programs were based on prices in relation to interest rates
2015-08-27 17:24:23 fib1618: we don't see much of that anymore either
2015-08-27 17:24:50 fib1618: I find it a fascinating subject though
2015-08-27 17:24:52 thespookyone: I think, though, that much TA is programmed in to give the market the look of "fairness" Fibs still get hit, patterns act right, etc
2015-08-27 17:24:57 fib1618: but when the rubber hits the road
2015-08-27 17:25:08 fib1618: no matter who, or what, or how stocks are traded
2015-08-27 17:25:23 fib1618: the one constant that still works is knowing how much money there is for investment
2015-08-27 17:25:35 fib1618: and then knowing when it commits itself into the market
2015-08-27 17:25:50 fib1618: I would disagree, Lew
2015-08-27 17:26:11 fib1618: I still think that 98% of all trading houses believe that TA is pure voodoo
2015-08-27 17:26:24 thespookyone: wow
2015-08-27 17:26:29 fib1618: and that's pretty fortunate
2015-08-27 17:26:36 fib1618: well...we know the FED doesn't use TA
2015-08-27 17:26:41 fib1618: they may look at a chart
2015-08-27 17:26:56 fib1618: and see something and then wonder if it would continue to work moving forward
2015-08-27 17:27:26 fib1618: but many of the high money people who make allocation decisions all went to Ivy League business schools
2015-08-27 17:27:32 fib1618: and they don't teach TA
2015-08-27 17:27:36 fib1618: maybe I'm wrong
2015-08-27 17:27:44 fib1618: and I'm not in the groove
2015-08-27 17:27:56 fib1618: but the one thing I can say over the years
2015-08-27 17:28:15 fib1618: is that the more traders use a specific technical methodology
2015-08-27 17:28:23 fib1618: the less likely it will work because
2015-08-27 17:28:33 fib1618: if everyone is trading off the same thing
2015-08-27 17:29:00 fib1618: it doesn't seem to work anymore since you still need to have someone on the other side of the trade in order for it to work
2015-08-27 17:29:11 thespookyone: I talked to the head of trading once at Morgan Stanley once, and he watched me trade for awhile, he said it was much different than his traders, so you may have a point on TA and the trading houses. Funny thing was he said he quite preferred my trading, LOL
2015-08-27 17:29:30 fib1618: here's the thing
2015-08-27 17:29:51 fib1618: if you're able to show how something repeats over and over again
2015-08-27 17:30:14 fib1618: and you can remain consistent and not deviate from that...especially under the pressure of always having to succeed
2015-08-27 17:30:23 fib1618: then we would see more technicians
2015-08-27 17:30:26 fib1618: in fact
2015-08-27 17:30:42 fib1618: as a casual observer of CNBC over the last 15 or 20 years
2015-08-27 17:30:54 fib1618: I have noticed that we have a larger group of technicians out there than ever before (if and when the producers decide to invite them as guests)
2015-08-27 17:31:55 fib1618: this is probably because that most trading software incorporates this and fundamentalists are either interested in seeing how it works are are forced to incorporate it
2015-08-27 17:32:11 fib1618: the funny thing though
2015-08-27 17:32:13 fib1618: is that
2015-08-27 17:32:20 fib1618: even if you think you know how something works
2015-08-27 17:32:28 fib1618: and you maybe successful at it for a while
2015-08-27 17:32:32 fib1618: things change
2015-08-27 17:32:35 fib1618: markets change
2015-08-27 17:32:43 fib1618: what used to work before may not in the future
2015-08-27 17:32:53 fib1618: and then they toss it aside
2015-08-27 17:33:14 thespookyone: at FNN, it was a small group, but it was John Bollinger [smile] Hated to see him go He has never stopped refining his craft
2015-08-27 17:33:26 fib1618: back testing is interesting but it doesn't give you future an example
2015-08-27 17:33:33 fib1618: well...FNN (Financial News Network) was unique
2015-08-27 17:33:47 thespookyone: The best!
2015-08-27 17:33:53 fib1618: because it evolved from KWHY in Los Angeles as a competitor
2015-08-27 17:34:08 fib1618: now
2015-08-27 17:34:12 fib1618: if you grew up in LA
2015-08-27 17:34:22 fib1618: this is where you learned TA from the masters
2015-08-27 17:34:32 fib1618: from Eliades to McClellan
2015-08-27 17:34:51 fib1618: from David Holt to Peter Haurlan
2015-08-27 17:35:09 fib1618: from this
2015-08-27 17:35:15 thespookyone: Best of the best, that group
2015-08-27 17:35:36 fib1618: we also got William O'Neill from this group
2015-08-27 17:35:40 fib1618: ummmm...
2015-08-27 17:35:45 fib1618: Larry Katz
2015-08-27 17:36:10 fib1618: Jim Benham who was the father of modern interest rate analysis
2015-08-27 17:36:19 fib1618: Bollinger
2015-08-27 17:36:23 fib1618: ummm
2015-08-27 17:36:27 fib1618: just an amazing group of people
2015-08-27 17:36:32 fib1618: who in the 1970's
2015-08-27 17:36:49 fib1618: created some of the greatest tools ever conceived by Market participants
2015-08-27 17:36:52 fib1618: Richard Arms
2015-08-27 17:36:59 fib1618: I could go on and on
2015-08-27 17:37:21 fib1618: what changed market analysis was the concept of rocket science
2015-08-27 17:37:43 fib1618: and how thrust and momentum was a constant in stock market behavior
2015-08-27 17:37:49 fib1618: and here we are today
2015-08-27 17:38:04 fib1618: constantly trying to improve upon it the best we can
2015-08-27 17:38:07 fib1618: is it perfect?
2015-08-27 17:38:09 fib1618: nope
2015-08-27 17:38:14 fib1618: then again...what is?
2015-08-27 17:38:26 fib1618: we should move on
2015-08-27 17:38:42 fib1618: anyway though...these people were my teachers
2015-08-27 17:38:59 thespookyone: It shows [smile]
2015-08-27 17:39:01 fib1618: I came home every day and watched the tapes on my VHS
2015-08-27 17:39:20 fib1618: it was something that complimented my pencil and graph paper
2015-08-27 17:39:23 fib1618: it made sense
2015-08-27 17:39:35 fib1618: and still
2015-08-27 17:39:50 fib1618: it took me another 10 years to break the bonds of old analysis and embrace it
2015-08-27 17:39:58 fib1618: but once I did...I never looked back
2015-08-27 17:40:00 fib1618: sorry...
2015-08-27 17:40:01 thespookyone: so does the pencil and graph paper, I still use NO software
2015-08-27 17:40:03 fib1618: onward
2015-08-27 17:40:08 fib1618: me too
2015-08-27 17:40:30 fib1618: I find that you have to work hard at anything in order to be successful
2015-08-27 17:40:53 fib1618: and the biggest complaint about software is that it can't measure the most important factor in stock trading
2015-08-27 17:41:05 fib1618: and that's human emotion
2015-08-27 17:41:24 thespookyone: absolutely
2015-08-27 17:42:14 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2015-08-27 17:42:40 fib1618: and if it wasn't for Tuesday's lower low
2015-08-27 17:42:56 fib1618: one might be able to say that we have a price bottom forming
2015-08-27 17:43:08 fib1618: but we'll have to wait another couple of weeks for this to happen
2015-08-27 17:45:05 fib1618: looks like the XLF breadth MCSUM is attempting to find support at its zero line
2015-08-27 17:45:33 fib1618: boy...all the way down to $18.50 on Monday's opening
2015-08-27 17:45:35 fib1618: wow
2015-08-27 17:46:37 fib1618: still, with a -26 reading on the XLF breadth MCO
2015-08-27 17:46:52 fib1618: it doesn't appear that we'll be able to hold the line
2015-08-27 17:47:39 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCSUM is attempting to hold the -250 level
2015-08-27 17:48:23 fib1618: we'll need to see the XLV breadth MCO move back above its zero line before there will be a chance to see a move to new price highs
2015-08-27 17:48:45 fib1618: so we'll call this a snapback to what was the old rising bottoms line before we collapsed last week
2015-08-27 17:49:31 fib1618: snapback complete as well on the XLI and XLB breadth MCO's
2015-08-27 17:49:46 fib1618: remember how we didn't like anything going on with these two last week?
2015-08-27 17:50:19 fib1618: snapback complete as well on the XLK breadth MCO
2015-08-27 17:50:43 fib1618: and boy...look how hard the XLU got hit over the last several days!
2015-08-27 17:51:14 fib1618: looked like a simple snapback to the breakout line...up until Tuesday's collapse
2015-08-27 17:52:05 fib1618: at this point...we'll call the XLU maybe another run up from here to where the collapse started is in the cards
2015-08-27 17:52:20 fib1618: the biggest advantage there for the buyers
2015-08-27 17:52:44 fib1618: is that the XLU breadth MCSUM remains at highly elevated levels of around +1100
2015-08-27 17:53:00 fib1618: so that should continue contain prices in and around current levels
2015-08-27 17:53:02 fib1618: so...
2015-08-27 17:53:09 fib1618: tough week for the bulls
2015-08-27 17:53:14 fib1618: and a tougher one for the bears
2015-08-27 17:53:29 fib1618: as both sides have been pulled in both directions
2015-08-27 17:53:48 fib1618: while the market searches out areas of pattern support
2015-08-27 17:54:01 fib1618: moving to the OBV data
2015-08-27 17:54:37 fib1618: and after the CVI suggested a price low in the next two trading session on Tuesday
2015-08-27 17:54:44 fib1618: we have now fully snapped back to the zero line
2015-08-27 17:55:05 fib1618: while the STVO"s and VTO's remain deeply "oversold"
2015-08-27 17:55:28 fib1618: which "should" keep prices from falling apart on any kind of near term retracement that we might see from here
2015-08-27 17:55:30 fib1618: on that note
2015-08-27 17:55:55 fib1618: we should see a progression of lower percentage moves in both directions
2015-08-27 17:56:08 fib1618: as the market begins to find some relative balance
2015-08-27 17:56:28 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .35
2015-08-27 17:56:37 fib1618: now that's what you call short covering!
2015-08-27 17:57:00 fib1618: Open 10 still deeply "oversold" at 1.21
2015-08-27 17:57:20 fib1618: so that should also help in keeping prices from moving lower in any important way for a while
2015-08-27 17:57:27 fib1618: but again
2015-08-27 17:57:30 fib1618: this is all relative
2015-08-27 17:57:32 fib1618: after all
2015-08-27 17:57:47 fib1618: we were down some 1100 points on Monday and Tuesday
2015-08-27 17:57:58 fib1618: and now were up near 1000 points on the rebound
2015-08-27 17:58:02 fib1618: so maybe down 750
2015-08-27 17:58:05 fib1618: up 600
2015-08-27 17:58:10 fib1618: down 450
2015-08-27 17:58:14 fib1618: up 300
2015-08-27 17:58:17 fib1618: a progression
2015-08-27 17:58:29 fib1618: as things continue to settle down
2015-08-27 17:58:41 fib1618: very much like the water in the bathtub settling after moving back and forth
2015-08-27 17:58:45 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .33
2015-08-27 17:58:56 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.11
2015-08-27 17:59:09 fib1618: TM TRIN at .38
2015-08-27 17:59:20 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.14
2015-08-27 17:59:23 fib1618: so...
2015-08-27 17:59:31 fib1618: a nice, strong short covering rally
2015-08-27 17:59:54 fib1618: as many traders just couldn't wait anymore for a continuation of Tuesday's last hour collapse
2015-08-27 18:00:08 fib1618: the stimulus, of course, continues to be with China
2015-08-27 18:00:31 fib1618: and we seem to be working with a consistency here for corrections over the last several years
2015-08-27 18:00:36 fib1618: first it was PIIGS
2015-08-27 18:00:43 fib1618: then it was Japan
2015-08-27 18:00:48 fib1618: then it was Greece
2015-08-27 18:00:52 fib1618: now it's China
2015-08-27 18:00:57 thespookyone: ISEE still came in at 78 today, fwiw
2015-08-27 18:00:58 fib1618: things we can't control
2015-08-27 18:01:21 fib1618: but are being used to explain away this much needed cleanse in the system
2015-08-27 18:01:23 fib1618: and yes
2015-08-27 18:01:44 fib1618: put option buyers continue to climb over each other to be the first to make a killing in the market
2015-08-27 18:02:11 fib1618: ISEE was 46 on Monday
2015-08-27 18:02:17 fib1618: 41 is the all time low
2015-08-27 18:02:23 thespookyone: wow
2015-08-27 18:02:40 fib1618: and then 77, 79, and today's 78
2015-08-27 18:02:45 fib1618: so it's a constant pump of put buying with high premiums
2015-08-27 18:02:59 fib1618: but as we know all too well
2015-08-27 18:03:09 fib1618: it doesn't mean a price bottom
2015-08-27 18:03:17 fib1618: only that we're in the process of hammering one out
2015-08-27 18:03:23 fib1618: and so we wait and watch...probably into quarterly OPEX
2015-08-27 18:03:27 fib1618: anything else?
2015-08-27 18:03:32 thespookyone: thx
2015-08-27 18:03:38 rite01: Thanks Dave and Spooky for all the great Observations,questions and answers tonight!
2015-08-27 18:03:58 fib1618: we're all in this together...
2015-08-27 18:04:07 thespookyone: Bet it!
2015-08-27 18:04:09 rite01: Yep
2015-08-27 18:04:22 rite01: and Good to know
2015-08-27 18:05:14 fib1618: now we'll see what's discussed in Jackson Hole over the next several days
2015-08-27 18:05:27 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-08-27 18:05:29 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-08-27 18:05:35 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend
2015-08-27 18:05:42 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2015-08-27 18:05:43 fib1618: good night
2015-08-27 18:05:58 rite01: Good night all

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