Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote
2015-08-27 16:00:46 fib1618: and a hearty good day to everyone!
2015-08-27 16:00:58 fib1618: how's it going? 2015-08-27 16:01:07 fib1618: anyone need any Dramamine? 2015-08-27 16:01:41 fib1618: 2015-08-27 16:02:34 rite01: I've noticed something last 3 days and want your thoughts 2015-08-27 16:03:34 fib1618: fire away! 2015-08-27 16:04:04 rite01: Last three days 2 of Zweig’s buy signals 1. Chapter 10 in his book last paragraph mentions reasons low probability of lower than 15% pull back 2. today one of his 9 to 1 volume days then add 2015-08-27 16:04:29 rite01: Last Tuesday’s MCO divergence you have possible monster rally… 2015-08-27 16:04:49 fib1618: But we don't have MCO divergence 2015-08-27 16:05:01 fib1618: but let me check the volume 2015-08-27 16:05:58 rite01: Daily divergences I've noticed at major tops and bottoms work more often that not. I could be wrong. 2015-08-27 16:06:24 fib1618: you can have intraday divergences 2015-08-27 16:06:39 fib1618: but remember that the MCO is a daily, close only indicator 2015-08-27 16:06:49 fib1618: I haven't found it beneficial intraday 2015-08-27 16:06:55 fib1618: right now 2015-08-27 16:07:12 fib1618: all we knew on Tuesday was that we were deeply "oversold" 2015-08-27 16:07:18 fib1618: and due for a big reflex 2015-08-27 16:07:34 fib1618: with the Dow up close to 1000 points in 2 days 2015-08-27 16:07:41 fib1618: I think that would qualify 2015-08-27 16:07:45 fib1618: also remember 2015-08-27 16:07:58 fib1618: when the MCO gets into deeply "oversold" territory 2015-08-27 16:08:04 fib1618: it's not so much a sign of weakness 2015-08-27 16:08:14 fib1618: then it's usually a sign of an important price low 2015-08-27 16:08:31 fib1618: doesn't mean we won't test this same low, or even move below it 2015-08-27 16:08:47 fib1618: but with two TRIN readings of over 3.00 within a week's time 2015-08-27 16:09:03 fib1618: and with low volume 2015-08-27 16:09:13 fib1618: like we talked about on Tuesday 2015-08-27 16:09:24 fib1618: volatility was going to be over the top for a while 2015-08-27 16:09:33 fib1618: and why it's better to stand aside and watch 2015-08-27 16:09:37 fib1618: now 2015-08-27 16:09:52 fib1618: don't be surprised if we slam lower by the time we meet up again next week 2015-08-27 16:10:01 fib1618: this is far from over 2015-08-27 16:10:17 rite01: I'm still in cash 2015-08-27 16:10:45 fib1618: you just want to remain disciplined 2015-08-27 16:10:58 fib1618: here's what's really important 2015-08-27 16:11:34 fib1618: did the rally of the last two days see any improvement in the BETS? 2015-08-27 16:11:44 rite01: no 2015-08-27 16:11:55 fib1618: probably not 2015-08-27 16:11:56 fib1618: for fun 2015-08-27 16:11:59 fib1618: let me check 2015-08-27 16:12:01 fib1618: brb 2015-08-27 16:13:10 fib1618: do you remember the number on Tuesday? 2015-08-27 16:13:16 rite01: -60 2015-08-27 16:13:21 fib1618: today's reading... 2015-08-27 16:13:23 fib1618: -65 2015-08-27 16:13:46 fib1618: and we're real close to moving to a -80 within a week 2015-08-27 16:14:35 fib1618: what you've seen here then is a classic bear market rally 2015-08-27 16:15:02 rite01: plus we need two 9 to 1 vol to signal a buy 2015-08-27 16:15:28 fib1618: but also remember one VERY important condition to the Zweig Indicator 2015-08-27 16:15:44 fib1618: that these signals tend to happen at the END of a prolonged bear market 2015-08-27 16:15:51 fib1618: 1982, for example 2015-08-27 16:15:57 rite01: Good to know thanks 2015-08-27 16:16:00 fib1618: 2003 2015-08-27 16:16:02 fib1618: 2009 2015-08-27 16:16:16 fib1618: then they mean something 2015-08-27 16:17:10 fib1618: that's the main reason why I mentioned that I didn't believe that we would get a thrust signal when I made the post 2015-08-27 16:17:16 fib1618: let me check today's number 2015-08-27 16:17:17 fib1618: one sec 2015-08-27 16:17:36 fib1618: SMA - 49% 2015-08-27 16:17:53 fib1618: sorry...that WAS the EMA! 2015-08-27 16:17:54 fib1618: nice 2015-08-27 16:18:12 fib1618: SMA at 43% 2015-08-27 16:18:29 fib1618: so not bad considering that we got to 29% on Tuesday 2015-08-27 16:18:51 fib1618: at this point 2015-08-27 16:18:56 fib1618: one thing we do know 2015-08-27 16:19:08 fib1618: is that the SPX breadth MCO did not move lower on Wednesday 2015-08-27 16:19:19 fib1618: so the 2250 longer term price target is still on the table 2015-08-27 16:19:31 fib1618: but since we moved to a -143 reading 2015-08-27 16:19:48 fib1618: it's going to take some time to pick up the pieces and sweep away the dust of the crash 2015-08-27 16:19:59 fib1618: because of this 2015-08-27 16:20:30 fib1618: volatility is going to continue to be wild and woolly 2015-08-27 16:20:45 fib1618: OK...any other questions or comments before we dive in?? 2015-08-27 16:21:53 fib1618: OK...let's get going then 2015-08-27 16:22:01 fib1618: after bottoming out on Tuesday 2015-08-27 16:22:20 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now fully snapped back to its zero line in just 2 trading days! 2015-08-27 16:22:34 fib1618: that's a remarkable accomplishment on any level you wish to use 2015-08-27 16:22:56 fib1618: looking at the components 2015-08-27 16:23:13 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend has now snapped back up to the 5% Trend 2015-08-27 16:23:31 fib1618: so between the MCO and its components 2015-08-27 16:23:40 fib1618: the reflex rally from the mini crash can now be called complete 2015-08-27 16:24:01 fib1618: and that the market should begin to back and fill below the MCO zero line over the next several days 2015-08-27 16:24:18 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NYA 2015-08-27 16:24:23 fib1618: and we have now filled Monday's gap 2015-08-27 16:24:24 fib1618: AND 2015-08-27 16:24:28 fib1618: we are actually up for the week! 2015-08-27 16:24:37 rite01: so that how it works :blush: 2015-08-27 16:25:09 fib1618: by .34% 2015-08-27 16:26:30 fib1618: sorry...doing some calculations 2015-08-27 16:28:16 fib1618: we also closed just above (10,230) the .382 Fibonacci trading target for wave 4 which was at 10,122 on a closing basis 2015-08-27 16:29:00 fib1618: so any further strength here would then confirm a completed five wave structure with Tuesday's close 2015-08-27 16:29:45 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO 2015-08-27 16:29:54 fib1618: and here we actually closed just above the zero line today 2015-08-27 16:30:03 fib1618: with a reading of +2 2015-08-27 16:30:07 fib1618: as with the CO data 2015-08-27 16:30:25 fib1618: we also see that the MCO components are both below their zero lines 2015-08-27 16:30:39 fib1618: and the 10% Trend has now snapped back to the 5% Trend 2015-08-27 16:30:52 fib1618: this would then indicate two things on a technical basis 2015-08-27 16:31:06 fib1618: one...we're back to a corrective sequence...however slight 2015-08-27 16:31:57 fib1618: two...that the technical expectation that we look for after moving to high levels of imbalance in the MCO, a move back to or toward the zero line, has now been met as well 2015-08-27 16:32:12 fib1618: indicating that the reflex rally is complete...or nearly so 2015-08-27 16:33:03 fib1618: snapback to the MCO zero line has also been accomplished by the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2015-08-27 16:33:27 fib1618: so far then...we are back to having balance between buyers and sellers at this time 2015-08-27 16:33:47 fib1618: where one side can now take control of the short term action 2015-08-27 16:34:13 fib1618: wow...this is quite amazing 2015-08-27 16:34:28 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line in 2 days as well 2015-08-27 16:34:45 fib1618: coming in today with a reading of -3 2015-08-27 16:35:02 fib1618: so the bears, have once again, ran for cover 2015-08-27 16:35:18 fib1618: and we're back to being neutral overall 2015-08-27 16:35:25 fib1618: on a short term trending basis, that is 2015-08-27 16:36:12 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is showing that its reflex was not as robust in this 2 day sequence 2015-08-27 16:36:27 fib1618: coming in today with a -14 reading 2015-08-27 16:36:46 fib1618: with a MCO component snapback also complete as well 2015-08-27 16:36:56 fib1618: so we're not surprised that we're in sync here 2015-08-27 16:37:19 fib1618: but we are seeing that things are not in complete agreement at this stage 2015-08-27 16:37:21 fib1618: and really 2015-08-27 16:38:01 fib1618: what else could you ask for considering how disseminated things have been over the last week? 2015-08-27 16:38:37 fib1618: it's sort of like a natural disaster where everyone knows that something bad has happened 2015-08-27 16:39:02 fib1618: but the news reports of how bad it was are coming in fast, but not nearly verifiable 2015-08-27 16:39:04 thespookyone: On the SPX, I find the razor close proximity of those two lows interesting... 2015-08-27 16:39:27 fib1618: SPX price...MCO?? 2015-08-27 16:39:44 thespookyone: price, with the second low slightly higher 2015-08-27 16:40:11 fib1618: well...Tuesday we had a lower close than that of Monday 2015-08-27 16:40:38 fib1618: but the MCO lows were within 4 points of each other 2015-08-27 16:40:49 fib1618: and that's important information 2015-08-27 16:41:07 fib1618: given what happened with prices later on after the -148 low 2015-08-27 16:41:42 fib1618: OH...maybe you're referring to the intraday lows of Monday and the closing lows of Tuesday? 2015-08-27 16:42:08 thespookyone: after we came off the bottom, we came back to a higher low 2015-08-27 16:42:08 fib1618: as if there were a floor that should not be breached 2015-08-27 16:42:17 fib1618: yes 2015-08-27 16:42:49 fib1618: today was important though because it destroyed any chance of a larger triangle on the daily 2015-08-27 16:43:20 fib1618: which would had made our lives so much more easier 2015-08-27 16:43:52 fib1618: .382 was at 1956 2015-08-27 16:44:22 fib1618: .50 retracement is at 1984 2015-08-27 16:44:31 fib1618: we closed at 1987 2015-08-27 16:44:50 fib1618: so if we look at this purely as a chartist 2015-08-27 16:44:59 fib1618: the 50% retracement should contain the pattern 2015-08-27 16:45:06 fib1618: just as we saw in the price of gold this week 2015-08-27 16:45:29 fib1618: but, in any event, we have so much more information now to work with 2015-08-27 16:45:43 fib1618: that we can provide a new chapter in our blueprint 2015-08-27 16:45:58 thespookyone: I wonder if it will be contained, given today's breadth? 2015-08-27 16:45:59 fib1618: notice also 2015-08-27 16:46:16 fib1618: that this recoil in the SPX breadth MCO to zero 2015-08-27 16:46:32 fib1618: has now halted the downside momentum of the SPX breadth MCSUM right at horizontal support 2015-08-27 16:46:44 fib1618: where we thought on Tuesday that it was unlikely to hold 2015-08-27 16:47:03 fib1618: let me check the raw numbers...one sec 2015-08-27 16:47:19 fib1618: 2869/357 2015-08-27 16:47:29 fib1618: a little over 7:1 2015-08-27 16:47:41 fib1618: sorry 2015-08-27 16:47:43 fib1618: more than that 2015-08-27 16:47:58 fib1618: 8:1 2015-08-27 16:48:08 thespookyone: yep 2015-08-27 16:48:10 fib1618: in fact 2015-08-27 16:48:31 fib1618: 2856 advancing issues would had been a bulls eye on the 8:1 ratio 2015-08-27 16:48:45 fib1618: let me double check something.. 2015-08-27 16:49:29 fib1618: that was after a day of nearly 4:1 to the good 2015-08-27 16:49:45 fib1618: we mentioned earlier 2015-08-27 16:50:18 fib1618: that the Zweig EMA number today reached 49 2015-08-27 16:50:29 fib1618: but the BETS is down 5 points 2015-08-27 16:50:49 fib1618: and people want to take a longer term position in this mess? 2015-08-27 16:50:51 fib1618: good luck 2015-08-27 16:51:18 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO made it back to a -18 today 2015-08-27 16:51:41 fib1618: snapback also complete between the OEX MCO 10% and 5% Trends 2015-08-27 16:51:58 fib1618: same situation with the Dow 2015-08-27 16:52:06 fib1618: and the MID 2015-08-27 16:52:11 fib1618: we're in total sync here 2015-08-27 16:52:19 fib1618: SML 2015-08-27 16:52:35 fib1618: and the Total Market 2015-08-27 16:52:40 fib1618: so.. 2015-08-27 16:52:43 fib1618: snapback complete 2015-08-27 16:53:28 fib1618: and now we begin the grueling game of building a foundation 2015-08-27 16:53:37 fib1618: right now 2015-08-27 16:53:54 fib1618: as much of a vacuum we had at the lows of Tuesday that needed to be filled 2015-08-27 16:54:16 fib1618: the equal and opposite can now be said 2015-08-27 16:54:31 fib1618: so we should look for another swoon event near term 2015-08-27 16:54:50 fib1618: let's see how the volume MCO's did in this reflex 2015-08-27 16:55:32 fib1618: pretty much a mirror image of breadth 2015-08-27 16:55:35 fib1618: snapback complete 2015-08-27 16:55:40 thespookyone: does looking for a quick drop not contradict the leading nature of the last two breadth days? 2015-08-27 16:56:10 fib1618: components below zero...with the 10% and 5% at the same levels 2015-08-27 16:56:19 fib1618: not really 2015-08-27 16:56:52 fib1618: what we want to see with thrusts like this is a better platform to launch from 2015-08-27 16:57:12 fib1618: here...it's very much like "the arm in the bathtub" analogy 2015-08-27 16:57:57 fib1618: we saw breadth with over 3000 issues declining on Monday 2015-08-27 16:58:36 fib1618: so as you take your forearm and swish the water to one end of the tub and take your arm out 2015-08-27 16:58:51 fib1618: you're going to get an equal and opposite surge in the other direction 2015-08-27 16:59:08 fib1618: what we have to wait for now is for this back and forth action to subside 2015-08-27 16:59:38 fib1618: what we do have here though moving forward 2015-08-27 16:59:45 fib1618: is one heck of a technical Flag to work from 2015-08-27 16:59:54 thespookyone: Thanks. Just for fun, the drop this afternoon was a perfect .382 retrace of the second move up, before then turning North again 2015-08-27 16:59:58 fib1618: where there will likely be a series of rising bottoms as we move along 2015-08-27 17:00:08 fib1618: I saw that 2015-08-27 17:00:18 fib1618: didn't know it was at 38% though... 2015-08-27 17:00:35 fib1618: and for those who use the intraday TICK 2015-08-27 17:01:09 fib1618: we got our buy signal at about 2:15 eastern time on Wednesday to cover short and move long 2015-08-27 17:01:20 fib1618: up until then 2015-08-27 17:01:30 fib1618: we still didn't have any real clarity 2015-08-27 17:01:38 fib1618: it could had turned into another Tuesday last hour 2015-08-27 17:01:57 fib1618: but once we moved above, and then tested the EMA's, and then went higher, that was the trigger 2015-08-27 17:02:13 thespookyone: yes, one of my guys is now in charge of watching that, and reporting it 2015-08-27 17:02:41 fib1618: 2015-08-27 17:02:48 fib1618: aye aye captain! 2015-08-27 17:02:51 thespookyone: it's GOLD, thanks! 2015-08-27 17:02:55 fib1618: np 2015-08-27 17:03:09 fib1618: simplicity is always the best go to in this business 2015-08-27 17:03:25 fib1618: if you find something that works consistently 2015-08-27 17:03:40 fib1618: the only thing standing in your way of making the right trade is your emotional bias 2015-08-27 17:03:56 thespookyone: SO TRUE 2015-08-27 17:04:12 fib1618: notice today how the TICK hugged the 39 day time period EMA 2015-08-27 17:04:54 fib1618: before it launched into the final hour 2015-08-27 17:05:29 fib1618: use it enough and you'll come up with some pretty good guidelines to work from 2015-08-27 17:05:32 fib1618: but again 2015-08-27 17:05:43 fib1618: this is more for scalpers...and option traders...intraday stuff 2015-08-27 17:05:54 thespookyone: yep 2015-08-27 17:06:16 fib1618: OK...back to breadth...and the sectors 2015-08-27 17:06:19 fib1618: this should be fun 2015-08-27 17:06:39 fib1618: when you look at these charts 2015-08-27 17:06:54 fib1618: notice the huge intraday range of Monday's opening 2015-08-27 17:07:17 fib1618: it was like 2008...and the flash crash 2015-08-27 17:07:31 fib1618: so one could say that the computers helped to perpetuate the sell off 2015-08-27 17:07:56 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line 2015-08-27 17:08:25 fib1618: after cleaning out the price stops using the January price lows as a proxy 2015-08-27 17:08:38 fib1618: interesting to note 2015-08-27 17:08:57 fib1618: that the XLY breadth MCSUM is attempting to find natural support right now at the -250 level 2015-08-27 17:09:17 fib1618: coming in today with a reading of -225 2015-08-27 17:10:16 fib1618: it's also interesting to note that we only challenged the MCO lows of last January but did not violate them 2015-08-27 17:10:27 fib1618: which suggests that even if we see continued price decay 2015-08-27 17:10:36 fib1618: these same price lows are likely to hold 2015-08-27 17:11:14 fib1618: if the technical damage of the last week is as vast as it looks at first glance 2015-08-27 17:11:40 fib1618: then we should be looking at the price floor of a trading range 2015-08-27 17:11:49 fib1618: could be a double bottom 2015-08-27 17:12:27 fib1618: but I always shy away from such ideas until we see an actual close of this same area to be challenged 2015-08-27 17:12:36 thespookyone: Elliott wise, it didn't take out the last "4" 2015-08-27 17:13:04 fib1618: that would be correct 2015-08-27 17:13:06 fib1618: nice bit of spotting there 2015-08-27 17:13:18 fib1618: if it was a extended 3rd wave on the way up 2015-08-27 17:13:31 fib1618: then the January lows would likely be wave 4 of that structure 2015-08-27 17:13:41 fib1618: and should hold corrective support 2015-08-27 17:14:05 fib1618: hmmm 2015-08-27 17:14:12 fib1618: looking at the XLP breadth MCSUM 2015-08-27 17:14:23 fib1618: and we're also attempting to hold support at the -250 level 2015-08-27 17:15:05 fib1618: the bounce here though isn't as strong as it was with the XLY 2015-08-27 17:15:20 fib1618: and this would question the validity of the notion of a "V" bottom 2015-08-27 17:16:03 thespookyone: It did come from deep, though, does that matter? 2015-08-27 17:16:07 fib1618: as history has shown that the defensive issues, such as the XLP, XLV and XLU, usually firm up first before the other sectors 2015-08-27 17:16:16 fib1618: well, everything matters 2015-08-27 17:16:57 fib1618: but we have been in this business long enough to know that if the defensive issues don't lead out of a bottom 2015-08-27 17:17:08 fib1618: it's like the broader market (the troops) not leading the generals 2015-08-27 17:17:28 fib1618: we never like to see the Dow and the OEX leading the broader market 2015-08-27 17:17:38 thespookyone: No 2015-08-27 17:17:40 fib1618: as more times than not we see a pull back 2015-08-27 17:17:44 fib1618: same idea here 2015-08-27 17:17:53 fib1618: and if we think about it 2015-08-27 17:18:26 fib1618: since it's usually Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie that usually gravitate toward these same defensive issues 2015-08-27 17:19:02 fib1618: this would also suggest that most of this is more of an asset allocation play that it wouldn't include full participation 2015-08-27 17:19:15 fib1618: if I were the Aunt and Uncle 2015-08-27 17:19:22 fib1618: I wouldn't step anywhere near this market 2015-08-27 17:19:36 fib1618: as I saw what happened in 2001 and 2008 2015-08-27 17:19:44 fib1618: the thing about "crash like" events though 2015-08-27 17:19:55 fib1618: is that they tend to provide an emotional response 2015-08-27 17:20:12 fib1618: we already know that bull markets climb a wall of worry 2015-08-27 17:20:30 fib1618: so if traders are not worrying 2015-08-27 17:20:33 fib1618: they panic 2015-08-27 17:20:55 fib1618: in the olden days when specialists ruled the roost 2015-08-27 17:21:15 fib1618: they would drop the market in order to accumulate inventory at "wholesale" pricing 2015-08-27 17:21:28 fib1618: so that they could distribute this same stock as it was being marked up 2015-08-27 17:21:43 fib1618: the same concept continues today 2015-08-27 17:22:15 fib1618: as, underneath is all, price valuations are solely based on supply and demand factors 2015-08-27 17:22:36 fib1618: for several months then...demand was waning 2015-08-27 17:22:46 fib1618: well...not really, I guess 2015-08-27 17:22:55 thespookyone: Do you think it is programmed into the algo of the machines? 2015-08-27 17:23:06 fib1618: as demand remained consistent enough to keep prices from decaying 2015-08-27 17:23:13 fib1618: to be honest 2015-08-27 17:23:20 fib1618: I'm not smart enough to really know 2015-08-27 17:23:26 fib1618: when I worked on the floor of the PSE many, many moons ago 2015-08-27 17:23:38 fib1618: it was easy to know who and what was moving prices 2015-08-27 17:23:55 fib1618: but today it's as simple as a keystroke 2015-08-27 17:24:17 fib1618: even in the 80's much of buy and sell programs were based on prices in relation to interest rates 2015-08-27 17:24:23 fib1618: we don't see much of that anymore either 2015-08-27 17:24:50 fib1618: I find it a fascinating subject though 2015-08-27 17:24:52 thespookyone: I think, though, that much TA is programmed in to give the market the look of "fairness" Fibs still get hit, patterns act right, etc 2015-08-27 17:24:57 fib1618: but when the rubber hits the road 2015-08-27 17:25:08 fib1618: no matter who, or what, or how stocks are traded 2015-08-27 17:25:23 fib1618: the one constant that still works is knowing how much money there is for investment 2015-08-27 17:25:35 fib1618: and then knowing when it commits itself into the market 2015-08-27 17:25:50 fib1618: I would disagree, Lew 2015-08-27 17:26:11 fib1618: I still think that 98% of all trading houses believe that TA is pure voodoo 2015-08-27 17:26:24 thespookyone: wow 2015-08-27 17:26:29 fib1618: and that's pretty fortunate 2015-08-27 17:26:36 fib1618: well...we know the FED doesn't use TA 2015-08-27 17:26:41 fib1618: they may look at a chart 2015-08-27 17:26:56 fib1618: and see something and then wonder if it would continue to work moving forward 2015-08-27 17:27:26 fib1618: but many of the high money people who make allocation decisions all went to Ivy League business schools 2015-08-27 17:27:32 fib1618: and they don't teach TA 2015-08-27 17:27:36 fib1618: maybe I'm wrong 2015-08-27 17:27:44 fib1618: and I'm not in the groove 2015-08-27 17:27:56 fib1618: but the one thing I can say over the years 2015-08-27 17:28:15 fib1618: is that the more traders use a specific technical methodology 2015-08-27 17:28:23 fib1618: the less likely it will work because 2015-08-27 17:28:33 fib1618: if everyone is trading off the same thing 2015-08-27 17:29:00 fib1618: it doesn't seem to work anymore since you still need to have someone on the other side of the trade in order for it to work 2015-08-27 17:29:11 thespookyone: I talked to the head of trading once at Morgan Stanley once, and he watched me trade for awhile, he said it was much different than his traders, so you may have a point on TA and the trading houses. Funny thing was he said he quite preferred my trading, LOL 2015-08-27 17:29:30 fib1618: here's the thing 2015-08-27 17:29:51 fib1618: if you're able to show how something repeats over and over again 2015-08-27 17:30:14 fib1618: and you can remain consistent and not deviate from that...especially under the pressure of always having to succeed 2015-08-27 17:30:23 fib1618: then we would see more technicians 2015-08-27 17:30:26 fib1618: in fact 2015-08-27 17:30:42 fib1618: as a casual observer of CNBC over the last 15 or 20 years 2015-08-27 17:30:54 fib1618: I have noticed that we have a larger group of technicians out there than ever before (if and when the producers decide to invite them as guests) 2015-08-27 17:31:55 fib1618: this is probably because that most trading software incorporates this and fundamentalists are either interested in seeing how it works are are forced to incorporate it 2015-08-27 17:32:11 fib1618: the funny thing though 2015-08-27 17:32:13 fib1618: is that 2015-08-27 17:32:20 fib1618: even if you think you know how something works 2015-08-27 17:32:28 fib1618: and you maybe successful at it for a while 2015-08-27 17:32:32 fib1618: things change 2015-08-27 17:32:35 fib1618: markets change 2015-08-27 17:32:43 fib1618: what used to work before may not in the future 2015-08-27 17:32:53 fib1618: and then they toss it aside 2015-08-27 17:33:14 thespookyone: at FNN, it was a small group, but it was John Bollinger Hated to see him go He has never stopped refining his craft 2015-08-27 17:33:26 fib1618: back testing is interesting but it doesn't give you future results...as an example 2015-08-27 17:33:33 fib1618: well...FNN (Financial News Network) was unique 2015-08-27 17:33:47 thespookyone: The best! 2015-08-27 17:33:53 fib1618: because it evolved from KWHY in Los Angeles as a competitor 2015-08-27 17:34:08 fib1618: now 2015-08-27 17:34:12 fib1618: if you grew up in LA 2015-08-27 17:34:22 fib1618: this is where you learned TA from the masters 2015-08-27 17:34:32 fib1618: from Eliades to McClellan 2015-08-27 17:34:51 fib1618: from David Holt to Peter Haurlan 2015-08-27 17:35:09 fib1618: from this 2015-08-27 17:35:15 thespookyone: Best of the best, that group 2015-08-27 17:35:36 fib1618: we also got William O'Neill from this group 2015-08-27 17:35:40 fib1618: ummmm... 2015-08-27 17:35:45 fib1618: Larry Katz 2015-08-27 17:36:10 fib1618: Jim Benham who was the father of modern interest rate analysis 2015-08-27 17:36:19 fib1618: Bollinger 2015-08-27 17:36:23 fib1618: ummm 2015-08-27 17:36:27 fib1618: just an amazing group of people 2015-08-27 17:36:32 fib1618: who in the 1970's 2015-08-27 17:36:49 fib1618: created some of the greatest tools ever conceived by Market participants 2015-08-27 17:36:52 fib1618: Richard Arms 2015-08-27 17:36:59 fib1618: I could go on and on 2015-08-27 17:37:21 fib1618: what changed market analysis was the concept of rocket science 2015-08-27 17:37:43 fib1618: and how thrust and momentum was a constant in stock market behavior 2015-08-27 17:37:49 fib1618: and here we are today 2015-08-27 17:38:04 fib1618: constantly trying to improve upon it the best we can 2015-08-27 17:38:07 fib1618: is it perfect? 2015-08-27 17:38:09 fib1618: nope 2015-08-27 17:38:14 fib1618: then again...what is? 2015-08-27 17:38:26 fib1618: we should move on 2015-08-27 17:38:42 fib1618: anyway though...these people were my teachers 2015-08-27 17:38:59 thespookyone: It shows 2015-08-27 17:39:01 fib1618: I came home every day and watched the tapes on my VHS 2015-08-27 17:39:20 fib1618: it was something that complimented my pencil and graph paper 2015-08-27 17:39:23 fib1618: it made sense 2015-08-27 17:39:35 fib1618: and still 2015-08-27 17:39:50 fib1618: it took me another 10 years to break the bonds of old analysis and embrace it 2015-08-27 17:39:58 fib1618: but once I did...I never looked back 2015-08-27 17:40:00 fib1618: sorry... 2015-08-27 17:40:01 thespookyone: so does the pencil and graph paper, I still use NO software 2015-08-27 17:40:03 fib1618: onward 2015-08-27 17:40:08 fib1618: me too 2015-08-27 17:40:30 fib1618: I find that you have to work hard at anything in order to be successful 2015-08-27 17:40:53 fib1618: and the biggest complaint about software is that it can't measure the most important factor in stock trading 2015-08-27 17:41:05 fib1618: and that's human emotion 2015-08-27 17:41:24 thespookyone: absolutely 2015-08-27 17:42:14 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line 2015-08-27 17:42:40 fib1618: and if it wasn't for Tuesday's lower low 2015-08-27 17:42:56 fib1618: one might be able to say that we have a price bottom forming 2015-08-27 17:43:08 fib1618: but we'll have to wait another couple of weeks for this to happen 2015-08-27 17:45:05 fib1618: looks like the XLF breadth MCSUM is attempting to find support at its zero line 2015-08-27 17:45:33 fib1618: boy...all the way down to $18.50 on Monday's opening 2015-08-27 17:45:35 fib1618: wow 2015-08-27 17:46:37 fib1618: still, with a -26 reading on the XLF breadth MCO 2015-08-27 17:46:52 fib1618: it doesn't appear that we'll be able to hold the line 2015-08-27 17:47:39 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCSUM is attempting to hold the -250 level 2015-08-27 17:48:23 fib1618: we'll need to see the XLV breadth MCO move back above its zero line before there will be a chance to see a move to new price highs 2015-08-27 17:48:45 fib1618: so we'll call this a snapback to what was the old rising bottoms line before we collapsed last week 2015-08-27 17:49:31 fib1618: snapback complete as well on the XLI and XLB breadth MCO's 2015-08-27 17:49:46 fib1618: remember how we didn't like anything going on with these two last week? 2015-08-27 17:50:19 fib1618: snapback complete as well on the XLK breadth MCO 2015-08-27 17:50:43 fib1618: and boy...look how hard the XLU got hit over the last several days! 2015-08-27 17:51:14 fib1618: looked like a simple snapback to the breakout line...up until Tuesday's collapse 2015-08-27 17:52:05 fib1618: at this point...we'll call the XLU corrective...so maybe another run up from here to where the collapse started is in the cards 2015-08-27 17:52:20 fib1618: the biggest advantage there for the buyers 2015-08-27 17:52:44 fib1618: is that the XLU breadth MCSUM remains at highly elevated levels of around +1100 2015-08-27 17:53:00 fib1618: so that should continue contain prices in and around current levels 2015-08-27 17:53:02 fib1618: so... 2015-08-27 17:53:09 fib1618: tough week for the bulls 2015-08-27 17:53:14 fib1618: and a tougher one for the bears 2015-08-27 17:53:29 fib1618: as both sides have been pulled in both directions 2015-08-27 17:53:48 fib1618: while the market searches out areas of pattern support 2015-08-27 17:54:01 fib1618: moving to the OBV data 2015-08-27 17:54:37 fib1618: and after the CVI suggested a price low in the next two trading session on Tuesday 2015-08-27 17:54:44 fib1618: we have now fully snapped back to the zero line 2015-08-27 17:55:05 fib1618: while the STVO"s and VTO's remain deeply "oversold" 2015-08-27 17:55:28 fib1618: which "should" keep prices from falling apart on any kind of near term retracement that we might see from here 2015-08-27 17:55:30 fib1618: on that note 2015-08-27 17:55:55 fib1618: we should see a progression of lower percentage moves in both directions 2015-08-27 17:56:08 fib1618: as the market begins to find some relative balance 2015-08-27 17:56:28 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .35 2015-08-27 17:56:37 fib1618: now that's what you call short covering! 2015-08-27 17:57:00 fib1618: Open 10 still deeply "oversold" at 1.21 2015-08-27 17:57:20 fib1618: so that should also help in keeping prices from moving lower in any important way for a while 2015-08-27 17:57:27 fib1618: but again 2015-08-27 17:57:30 fib1618: this is all relative 2015-08-27 17:57:32 fib1618: after all 2015-08-27 17:57:47 fib1618: we were down some 1100 points on Monday and Tuesday 2015-08-27 17:57:58 fib1618: and now were up near 1000 points on the rebound 2015-08-27 17:58:02 fib1618: so maybe down 750 2015-08-27 17:58:05 fib1618: up 600 2015-08-27 17:58:10 fib1618: down 450 2015-08-27 17:58:14 fib1618: up 300 2015-08-27 17:58:17 fib1618: a progression 2015-08-27 17:58:29 fib1618: as things continue to settle down 2015-08-27 17:58:41 fib1618: very much like the water in the bathtub settling after moving back and forth 2015-08-27 17:58:45 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .33 2015-08-27 17:58:56 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.11 2015-08-27 17:59:09 fib1618: TM TRIN at .38 2015-08-27 17:59:20 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.14 2015-08-27 17:59:23 fib1618: so... 2015-08-27 17:59:31 fib1618: a nice, strong short covering rally 2015-08-27 17:59:54 fib1618: as many traders just couldn't wait anymore for a continuation of Tuesday's last hour collapse 2015-08-27 18:00:08 fib1618: the stimulus, of course, continues to be with China 2015-08-27 18:00:31 fib1618: and we seem to be working with a consistency here for corrections over the last several years 2015-08-27 18:00:36 fib1618: first it was PIIGS 2015-08-27 18:00:43 fib1618: then it was Japan 2015-08-27 18:00:48 fib1618: then it was Greece 2015-08-27 18:00:52 fib1618: now it's China 2015-08-27 18:00:57 thespookyone: ISEE still came in at 78 today, fwiw 2015-08-27 18:00:58 fib1618: things we can't control 2015-08-27 18:01:21 fib1618: but are being used to explain away this much needed cleanse in the system 2015-08-27 18:01:23 fib1618: and yes 2015-08-27 18:01:44 fib1618: put option buyers continue to climb over each other to be the first to make a killing in the market 2015-08-27 18:02:11 fib1618: ISEE was 46 on Monday 2015-08-27 18:02:17 fib1618: 41 is the all time low 2015-08-27 18:02:23 thespookyone: wow 2015-08-27 18:02:40 fib1618: and then 77, 79, and today's 78 2015-08-27 18:02:45 fib1618: so it's a constant pump of put buying with high premiums 2015-08-27 18:02:59 fib1618: but as we know all too well 2015-08-27 18:03:09 fib1618: it doesn't mean a price bottom 2015-08-27 18:03:17 fib1618: only that we're in the process of hammering one out 2015-08-27 18:03:23 fib1618: and so we wait and watch...probably into quarterly OPEX 2015-08-27 18:03:27 fib1618: anything else? 2015-08-27 18:03:32 thespookyone: thx 2015-08-27 18:03:38 rite01: Thanks Dave and Spooky for all the great Observations,questions and answers tonight! 2015-08-27 18:03:58 fib1618: we're all in this together... 2015-08-27 18:04:07 thespookyone: Bet it! 2015-08-27 18:04:09 rite01: Yep 2015-08-27 18:04:22 rite01: and Good to know 2015-08-27 18:05:14 fib1618: now we'll see what's discussed in Jackson Hole over the next several days 2015-08-27 18:05:27 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else 2015-08-27 18:05:29 fib1618: I'm going to take off 2015-08-27 18:05:35 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend 2015-08-27 18:05:42 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday 2015-08-27 18:05:43 fib1618: good night 2015-08-27 18:05:58 rite01: Good night all __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977