All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-08-26 19:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-08-26 19:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-08-26 19:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I know, I know...indecisive
2008-08-26 19:00:55 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: waiting, waiting for the "fireworks"
2008-08-26 19:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what? Friday and Monday wasn't enough fireworks for ya?
2008-08-26 19:01:40 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: yep, just a warmup
2008-08-26 19:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be a long warm up
2008-08-26 19:02:11 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: so true
2008-08-26 19:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions, comments, or annoyances before we get started???
2008-08-26 19:03:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What the market giveth, the market taketh away
2008-08-26 19:03:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: every other day
2008-08-26 19:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then giveth again
2008-08-26 19:03:17 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: happened to me today, TM
2008-08-26 19:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the internals told you
2008-08-26 19:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: choppy is just that...choppy
2008-08-26 19:03:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, the internals told fib
2008-08-26 19:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no trend
2008-08-26 19:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no conviction
2008-08-26 19:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the battle of the "wills"
2008-08-26 19:04:13 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: greed vs fear
2008-08-26 19:04:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: as long as it is not "last will" and testament
2008-08-26 19:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't put current market conditions in either category
2008-08-26 19:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all traders want is to is....probable direction
2008-08-26 19:05:06 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: agreed, dave
2008-08-26 19:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so far, one side has given up their convictions
2008-08-26 19:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the other haven't made up their collective minds
2008-08-26 19:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we talked about last week
2008-08-26 19:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls still have to re-establish their conviction
2008-08-26 19:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the bears can put together volatile events
2008-08-26 19:06:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, that was my comment. Now you want my question?
2008-08-26 19:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just another battle near the zero line
2008-08-26 19:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...
2008-08-26 19:07:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Does two days in the same direction make a trend?
2008-08-26 19:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope
2008-08-26 19:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neither does 3
2008-08-26 19:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it really depends on the energy that moves prices in this same direction
2008-08-26 19:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, I don't think we're going to get much more answers than we had last week
2008-08-26 19:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we probably won't until sometime later next week
2008-08-26 19:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volume has dried up
2008-08-26 19:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as expected
2008-08-26 19:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: conventions are running
2008-08-26 19:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not even the enlightenment of a VP choice made much of a difference
2008-08-26 19:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably the most interesting asset right now is with gold
2008-08-26 19:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and has everyone noticed that many of the bond ETF's continue to make new highs?
2008-08-26 19:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: debt...and then to equities
2008-08-26 19:10:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no
2008-08-26 19:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I know...boring stuff those debt instruments are
2008-08-26 19:11:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: technicals look like a move in the market is imminent
2008-08-26 19:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: direction?
2008-08-26 19:11:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats the magic question
2008-08-26 19:12:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looks up
2008-08-26 19:12:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: first and fast
2008-08-26 19:12:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: then down
2008-08-26 19:12:16 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: agreed, up
2008-08-26 19:12:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: harder and faster
2008-08-26 19:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, if the technicals suggest a move is imminent, which technicals are telling you this?
2008-08-26 19:12:53 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lots of bullish divergence on most 60 minute charts
2008-08-26 19:12:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: chart pattern recog, wave count, trend lines, divergences
2008-08-26 19:12:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Looks to me like chop is imminent..
2008-08-26 19:13:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: etc...
2008-08-26 19:13:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: many different forms of technicals
2008-08-26 19:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: care to share an example?
2008-08-26 19:13:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if i could learn how to post a chart from esignal here i would
2008-08-26 19:13:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: annotated and all..........
2008-08-26 19:13:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not that savvy
2008-08-26 19:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would think it would be easy...
2008-08-26 19:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have you tried....
2008-08-26 19:13:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for people who know how to use computers
2008-08-26 19:13:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-26 19:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right clicking on the chart, saving it in your picture files, and then uploading it either to the site or to a off site server?
2008-08-26 19:14:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: when we go through the data lets see if we see anything that would match what technicals may suggest
2008-08-26 19:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first time is always the hardest
2008-08-26 19:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-08-26 19:15:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i know, "ya never know until you try"
2008-08-26 19:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the technicals have their reliance on the internals
2008-08-26 19:15:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats why i suggest seeing if internals are saying anything
2008-08-26 19:15:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: inverted ledge still in play?
2008-08-26 19:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if the internals are flat, it would be hard to tell which direction has the higher probability of success
2008-08-26 19:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we'll take a look-see
2008-08-26 19:16:39 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: breadth looked good today, considering market, and NYA outperformed Dow
2008-08-26 19:17:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i know it may not mean much, but there is a lot in this direction, wave count, distance, and speed that is a fractal of a few months ago
2008-08-26 19:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after completing its snapback expectation on Friday, and moving to new lows on Monday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO again moved higher today
2008-08-26 19:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this move higher has now completed a smaller snapback to what was near term support of the pattern created after the death spiral move lower seen early last week
2008-08-26 19:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...tops beneath tops control the near term pattern
2008-08-26 19:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM and we continue to move begrudgingly lower
2008-08-26 19:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with narrow postings
2008-08-26 19:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that the bears don't have complete control of the action right now
2008-08-26 19:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and may be exhausting themselves of any further price erosion in the process
2008-08-26 19:19:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on a side note, dave, away from internals and technicals for a moment, it seems that the fear in the market has exceeded the current fundamentals, a smaller version of what happened near july 15
2008-08-26 19:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the components themselves remain in a bearish cross over configuration below their zero lines as well
2008-08-26 19:20:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: speaking in the direction of the financials
2008-08-26 19:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would tend to agree with that observation
2008-08-26 19:21:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-26 19:21:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: then it MUST be
2008-08-26 19:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that the XLF, by moving to such an "oversold" MCSUM level as it did, it's going to be extremely hard for the bears to move the price action well below those same July lows
2008-08-26 19:22:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: may i ask you to post link?
2008-08-26 19:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being as "oversold" as it was, actually creates a solid floor in the price pattern
2008-08-26 19:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure... do you have DP?
2008-08-26 19:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise, it won't do you any good
2008-08-26 19:23:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this is like groundhog day, i do not but should, if we can add another hour in the day
2008-08-26 19:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hear you
2008-08-26 19:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it always comes down to how much ammunition you wish to use
2008-08-26 19:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event
2008-08-26 19:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anytime you see the MCSUM move below -1500, you are actually looking at levels that not only come rarely, but usually come during the climactic phases of a bear market
2008-08-26 19:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping in mind, that we're only talking about the flow of money as opposed to the actual price lows
2008-08-26 19:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, deeper price lows can come later
2008-08-26 19:25:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, that is why i want to see where financial breadth mcsum vs. price
2008-08-26 19:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but almost always with MCSUM divergence which is in preparation for an equal and opposite reaction
2008-08-26 19:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...the XLF breadth MCSUM is supporting a -734 reading
2008-08-26 19:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too low for a uptrend
2008-08-26 19:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still higher than the actual low
2008-08-26 19:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was somewhere around - what? -2000?
2008-08-26 19:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...still a ways to go
2008-08-26 19:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the current sideways pattern suggesting a selective accumulation point
2008-08-26 19:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-08-26 19:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here we see that a higher low was made on Monday compared to the lower low made on the commons
2008-08-26 19:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, we now have the interest rate sensitives showing better strength
2008-08-26 19:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is what the bulls want to see
2008-08-26 19:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (unlike two weeks ago when the commons moved higher than the composite)
2008-08-26 19:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the current reading on the NYSE breadth MCO is back above the zero line at +6
2008-08-26 19:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the near term indecision continues
2008-08-26 19:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-08-26 19:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there we continue to move net sideways (as would be the expectation with the MCO moving above and below the zero line as it has)
2008-08-26 19:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this current sideways action could be construed as an "inverted ledge"
2008-08-26 19:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however
2008-08-26 19:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ledges tend to have more in the way of a counter trend structure to them
2008-08-26 19:32:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wouldn't an inverted ledge be counter trend?
2008-08-26 19:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this, and the fact that we've now moved sideways for over a week
2008-08-26 19:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it was falling
2008-08-26 19:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it isn't
2008-08-26 19:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's moving horizontally
2008-08-26 19:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, the better interpretation now is one of a pause of the ongoing direction of the MCSUM
2008-08-26 19:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would suggest an eventually "breakout" move to the upside
2008-08-26 19:33:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: do you see anything in the nyse summation now compared to that of middle of February give any clues?
2008-08-26 19:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only that what was just described would probably be the eventual outcome
2008-08-26 19:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same structure
2008-08-26 19:34:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok
2008-08-26 19:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...we still have minimal upside price objectives still be reached
2008-08-26 19:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like last February, the MCO doesn't have to move very far to help the momentum of the fuel already used to reach these same price targets
2008-08-26 19:35:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: similar struggle on nyse mcclellan osc at zero line as middle of feb
2008-08-26 19:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-26 19:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls don't want to give up on what they've built
2008-08-26 19:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there isn't enough of them now to keep things moving in this same direction
2008-08-26 19:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another way to put it is
2008-08-26 19:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the willing have committed...the unwilling are still to come
2008-08-26 19:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the unwilling will probably turn out to be the weak shorts
2008-08-26 19:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since these traders are "weak", they probably don't have enough in the way of fire power to make much of a difference in the bigger scheme of things
2008-08-26 19:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term...those who are looking for an upside move in price, only need to see the NYSE breadth MCO make a higher high than last Friday's
2008-08-26 19:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and only then, the amount of power to drive prices higher will, more than likely, be weak in scope
2008-08-26 19:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - maybe a day and a half of advancing prices, but then you should see prices erode
2008-08-26 19:39:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that could be one day away
2008-08-26 19:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's always a day away
2008-08-26 19:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-26 19:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the point is, I wouldn't expect much
2008-08-26 19:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you're positioned right, great
2008-08-26 19:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but don't get greedy
2008-08-26 19:40:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: I am short skf
2008-08-26 19:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's still not a lot of conviction out there right now
2008-08-26 19:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, good skill to you
2008-08-26 19:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's an amazing chart
2008-08-26 19:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-26 19:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's like day trading
2008-08-26 19:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving from 210 to 120?
2008-08-26 19:42:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its like a 120 dollar option
2008-08-26 19:42:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-26 19:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the market itself has only moved less than 10%?
2008-08-26 19:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: talk about leverage!
2008-08-26 19:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...back to the data
2008-08-26 19:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, with the NYSE breadth MCO playing tag with the zero line
2008-08-26 19:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the NYSE breadth MCSUM moving sideways
2008-08-26 19:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are currently direction less
2008-08-26 19:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, if we look at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2008-08-26 19:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there we have the structure of an "inverted ledge"
2008-08-26 19:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: see the difference in the angle?
2008-08-26 19:45:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-26 19:45:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: didn't know what you meant before, now i do
2008-08-26 19:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you turn it around, a ledge should look like something you climb where you can "fall off of"
2008-08-26 19:46:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bull flaggish
2008-08-26 19:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you will find with this kind of work
2008-08-26 19:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that chart pattern descriptors are not really appropriate
2008-08-26 19:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not saying that it doesn't look like a flag
2008-08-26 19:47:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, can chart pattern recognition work on summation charts?
2008-08-26 19:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we're not analyzing price action...we're analyzing the component that produces these same chart structures
2008-08-26 19:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not really
2008-08-26 19:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: will recognize a "double bottom"
2008-08-26 19:47:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i recognize an expanding triangle on nyse summation
2008-08-26 19:48:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: from jan
2008-08-26 19:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this is part of the "heave ho" action of opinion
2008-08-26 19:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one can recognize many geometric formations
2008-08-26 19:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but here's the difference
2008-08-26 19:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: almost every single geometric chart formation has a volume pattern that goes with it
2008-08-26 19:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM does not
2008-08-26 19:49:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right
2008-08-26 19:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just an oscillator
2008-08-26 19:49:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this is true
2008-08-26 19:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the only real chart pattern that may mean much is the triangle
2008-08-26 19:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's only because of what it reflects...indecision
2008-08-26 19:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can break up or down
2008-08-26 19:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where with price patterns, the volume that accompanies such structures will usually give you the fast track on the eventual breakout
2008-08-26 19:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here, money is fickle
2008-08-26 19:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can change in an instant
2008-08-26 19:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...sideways moves in the MCSUM only mean indecision
2008-08-26 19:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: triangles patterns continue this indecision
2008-08-26 19:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...the markets only trend 20% of the time
2008-08-26 19:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the rest of the time its indecisive
2008-08-26 19:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is good for those who like to day trade
2008-08-26 19:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but for longer term traders and investors, it's always a struggle
2008-08-26 19:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the period of 2003-2007 was so amazing for you had four straight years of trend
2008-08-26 19:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: highly unusual
2008-08-26 19:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now, we're only correcting those same excesses
2008-08-26 19:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to be honest, in a very orderly manner
2008-08-26 19:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: matching up sales at the end of the day, and still we're moving positively
2008-08-26 19:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is no breakdown as yet in this same pattern
2008-08-26 19:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hasn't been either
2008-08-26 19:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: got close
2008-08-26 19:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we held the longer term trend
2008-08-26 19:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether we continue to do so is what we're trying to fully understand right now
2008-08-26 19:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but sentiment is saying bottom
2008-08-26 19:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM's are saying bottom
2008-08-26 19:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but bottoms are never simple events because of the emotion that they cause
2008-08-26 19:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: onward
2008-08-26 19:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mid range close on the COMPQ today suggesting an up close on Wednesday
2008-08-26 19:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and all that really matters right now for the NASDAQ bulls is to be able to move above the declining tops line that has initially turned the current MCSUM pattern lower
2008-08-26 19:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we move above this level of resistance, 2500 will be met
2008-08-26 19:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the lower low created yesterday on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM, this has now canceled the 2800 upside target
2008-08-26 19:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: will we reset?
2008-08-26 19:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or will 2500 be all we should look for?
2008-08-26 19:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of structure with the NDX breadth MCO
2008-08-26 19:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM, you can see that we now moved back to what should be short term technical support of the -250 level
2008-08-26 19:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point, it's unlikely that we have enough to move back up to the zero line short term
2008-08-26 20:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it wouldn't be surprising if we did see a near term turn around in this index off this same support level
2008-08-26 20:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the NDX breadth MCO is able to take out last weeks snapback highs, then 2050 MCO target should be met in quick fashion
2008-08-26 20:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the chart patterns of the COMPQ and NDX
2008-08-26 20:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and our continuing "cup and handle" formation continues to play out quite nicely
2008-08-26 20:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mid range close on the NDX as well
2008-08-26 20:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if this is a cup and handle, enough time has passed for the handle formation, and higher price highs should now have a chance to be seen
2008-08-26 20:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether we can actually build on this, or not, is still open for debate
2008-08-26 20:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO now has a reading of -3
2008-08-26 20:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we're neutral here
2008-08-26 20:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the SPX components and we see that the 10% is just "a lips distance of a kiss" of the 5% component
2008-08-26 20:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, we could continue to unwind here
2008-08-26 20:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...we are INDECISIVE
2008-08-26 20:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can go either way...and it WILL depend on news
2008-08-26 20:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as it always does during indecision points
2008-08-26 20:05:28 [Message] bill -> Main Room: hi fib. back one step. how do we interpret the divergence on NDX...higher MCO....lower prices. same as any indicator divergence?
2008-08-26 20:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since the MCO is an oscillator, divergences techniques would work the same
2008-08-26 20:06:02 [Message] bill -> Main Room: thanks
2008-08-26 20:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of the zero line as the 50 line on an oscillator
2008-08-26 20:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: below it, the bears control...above it, the bulls
2008-08-26 20:06:31 [Message] bill -> Main Room: ok
2008-08-26 20:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 50 the zero line...means an even balance between buyers and sellers
2008-08-26 20:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where one side is about to take control...once clarity is known
2008-08-26 20:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO measures the short term degree of trend of the A/D line
2008-08-26 20:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very important to know
2008-08-26 20:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM is the intermediate term degree of the A/D line of trend
2008-08-26 20:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short term is about 4-6 weeks
2008-08-26 20:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intermediate term is about 4-12 weeks
2008-08-26 20:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so when I say near term, I'm talking the next day or two
2008-08-26 20:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hope that helps
2008-08-26 20:09:40 [Message] bill -> Main Room: yes, as do your previous analogies in prior chats
2008-08-26 20:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX, Dow and MID remain indecisive
2008-08-26 20:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML data shows more selling, but this same selling isn't picking up where a price top would be indicated
2008-08-26 20:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the SML breadth MCSUM has now met its minimal objective of snapping back down to or towards its zero line
2008-08-26 20:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now with a reading of +62
2008-08-26 20:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the short term, a bounce in and around this area would be a highly bullish event for the SML
2008-08-26 20:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as this same zero line test would also be part of a snapback to what had been almost a year of prior overhead resistance
2008-08-26 20:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the bulls side...
2008-08-26 20:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interest rates continue to soften
2008-08-26 20:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as long as the cost of money remains friendly, the small caps are the highest beneficiaries of such monetary policies
2008-08-26 20:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM breadth MCO is back to the zero line
2008-08-26 20:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the total market is fully neutral here
2008-08-26 20:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...there's really no true indication of how this is going to work out near term
2008-08-26 20:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be we'll see short and sweet pulses
2008-08-26 20:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but nothing bubbling under the surface here in either direction
2008-08-26 20:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what will help though will be the position of the volume oscillators, and more importantly, the Open 10...
2008-08-26 20:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so let's move on
2008-08-26 20:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are neutral
2008-08-26 20:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one side is about to take control
2008-08-26 20:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are "oversold"
2008-08-26 20:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would increase the likelihood of an upside advantage
2008-08-26 20:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what a mess
2008-08-26 20:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my hats off to anyone who has an Elliott count here
2008-08-26 20:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks corrective
2008-08-26 20:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after having a 2.00 plus TRIN on Monday, the NYSE TRIN is at 1.00
2008-08-26 20:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .97
2008-08-26 20:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.62
2008-08-26 20:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.12
2008-08-26 20:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: solid floor
2008-08-26 20:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.39
2008-08-26 20:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.08
2008-08-26 20:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I wouldn't short this puppy
2008-08-26 20:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, a morning sell off might be a good time for a position play
2008-08-26 20:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bears, they need to work off the Open 10 "oversold" readings
2008-08-26 20:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: equal and opposite of what took place 2 weeks ago for the bulls when the NASDAQ Open 10 was above .80
2008-08-26 20:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: range bound
2008-08-26 20:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the price pattern shows this
2008-08-26 20:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we'll see how the bulls perform in the next day or two
2008-08-26 20:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for you chartists out there
2008-08-26 20:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone want to label the current NYA price pattern?
2008-08-26 20:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dave?
2008-08-26 20:22:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: My take......Declining wedge
2008-08-26 20:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: spot on
2008-08-26 20:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure looks like
2008-08-26 20:23:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Resolution up
2008-08-26 20:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would suggest an upside breakout
2008-08-26 20:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volume pattern is there
2008-08-26 20:24:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Where is volume.....there is little
2008-08-26 20:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the idea
2008-08-26 20:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wedges are sloping triangles
2008-08-26 20:24:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, lower volume at the apex you mean?
2008-08-26 20:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where daily volume declines moving into the apex
2008-08-26 20:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-26 20:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this same declining volume measures both equality between buyers and sellers AND indecision
2008-08-26 20:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: exactly what the internals are conveying
2008-08-26 20:25:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I have a moving average of daily volume I is moving on down by day
2008-08-26 20:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we believe this to be a declining wedge formation
2008-08-26 20:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a breakout to the downside would be an "all in" situation because of a "failure to perform"
2008-08-26 20:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yep
2008-08-26 20:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why you never short a dull market
2008-08-26 20:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why true bear markets end in a whimper
2008-08-26 20:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not with climactic events
2008-08-26 20:27:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Would have been bad idea to short a dull market last Thursday
2008-08-26 20:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like wringing a towel out
2008-08-26 20:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I do believe we said just that, didn't we?
2008-08-26 20:27:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-26 20:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, we'll see
2008-08-26 20:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing I wish to share is
2008-08-26 20:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that this is not a time to be "arrogant" in a near term forecast
2008-08-26 20:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not speaking of anyone in the room
2008-08-26 20:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just as a general bit of wisdom under such circumstances as we have now
2008-08-26 20:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (I hope it's may be nothing but gibberish to others)
2008-08-26 20:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...what else?
2008-08-26 20:29:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What wisdom is that?
2008-08-26 20:29:39 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: hit and run working well
2008-08-26 20:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-26 20:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks TM
2008-08-26 20:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: funny stuff
2008-08-26 20:30:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, is not to be arrogant the wisdom?
2008-08-26 20:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-26 20:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: naw...just gibberish lol
2008-08-26 20:30:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Is it next week you will be gone? or week after that?
2008-08-26 20:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will be gone the week of 9/8
2008-08-26 20:31:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So we can have nice rally into next week
2008-08-26 20:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll probably make a decision on next weeks schedule on Thursday
2008-08-26 20:31:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Or not
2008-08-26 20:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I don't think it's going to be easy
2008-08-26 20:32:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Never easy...
2008-08-26 20:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the declining wedge formation does have its robust properties
2008-08-26 20:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thin volume could give us more than expected
2008-08-26 20:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shorts covering going into the 3 day weekend could do the same
2008-08-26 20:32:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: My favorite patterns, and just about only favorite, are rise/fall wedges
2008-08-26 20:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything with an apex is fine with me
2008-08-26 20:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are, by far, the most consistent of all patterns
2008-08-26 20:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although, a symmetrical triangle reversal patterns can be deadly
2008-08-26 20:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: heck...when I was teaching this stuff, I had two chapters on triangles and wedges
2008-08-26 20:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by far the most covered area of analysis
2008-08-26 20:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-08-26 20:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bad thing about indecision patterns is...there's not much to talk about
2008-08-26 20:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry
2008-08-26 20:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else, I'm going to get going
2008-08-26 20:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-08-26 20:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2008-08-26 20:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-26 20:35:55 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: count wise, I believe we finished a b down, c up imminent, and THX, as usual!
2008-08-26 20:36:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Hey Lew, we will see....

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch