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fib_1618

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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-08-25 16:00:01 fib1618: good day
2015-08-25 16:00:05 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-08-25 16:02:45 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-08-25 16:02:48 fib1618: soooo...anything happen in the markets over the last couple of days that was....uhhhh...exciting?
2015-08-25 16:02:56 fib1618: [smile]
2015-08-25 16:02:58 fib1618: I'm fine
2015-08-25 16:03:31 fib1618: how about that last hour today...whew!
2015-08-25 16:03:47 thespookyone: Yep, shock and awe
2015-08-25 16:04:11 fib1618: looked pretty orderly until you considered that it wasn't moving in 5 point increments...it was moving in 50's
2015-08-25 16:04:46 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we dig in and see what we have to work with?
2015-08-25 16:04:58 fib1618: BTW
2015-08-25 16:05:11 fib1618: I was supposed to be in Vegas yesterday and today [wink]
2015-08-25 16:05:18 rite01: Yikes
2015-08-25 16:05:25 fib1618: too funny, huh?
2015-08-25 16:06:51 rite01: Noticed Zweig chart you posted TT shows many lows posted on a divergence to price
2015-08-25 16:07:11 orange: Hi Dave, got the chat working on my iPad
2015-08-25 16:07:23 fib1618: super to know...thanks
2015-08-25 16:07:36 fib1618: they were only able to work with Apple on this
2015-08-25 16:07:53 fib1618: not with other tablet O.S's
2015-08-25 16:08:14 fib1618: so you can be in your car now, or on a plane or train, and follow the chat in real time...that's very cool!
2015-08-25 16:08:29 orange: Yes
2015-08-25 16:08:48 fib1618: well...I think I'm going to have to extend the time axis out on the charts tonight
2015-08-25 16:08:57 fib1618: so let's get going
2015-08-25 16:09:11 fib1618: before we do
2015-08-25 16:09:19 fib1618: let me get a count on the BETS
2015-08-25 16:09:22 fib1618: one moment
2015-08-25 16:10:50 fib1618: -60 - no change
2015-08-25 16:11:12 fib1618: that's important information for now
2015-08-25 16:11:13 fib1618: however
2015-08-25 16:11:34 fib1618: the NAUD and the NYAD lines are close to adding 10 points to that number
2015-08-25 16:11:40 fib1618: and may do so by the end of the week
2015-08-25 16:11:56 fib1618: so unless we get a very strong rebound that sticks right here and now
2015-08-25 16:12:08 fib1618: the BETS is likely to go to a sell on Friday
2015-08-25 16:12:10 fib1618: we'll see
2015-08-25 16:12:17 fib1618: it saved itself last Friday
2015-08-25 16:12:24 fib1618: couldn't believe it
2015-08-25 16:12:36 fib1618: OK...let's get the charts up and get started
2015-08-25 16:13:05 fib1618: we have a small point change on the NYSE CO breadth MCO today
2015-08-25 16:13:31 fib1618: with a deeply "oversold" reading of -112
2015-08-25 16:14:48 fib1618: the reading itself is the lowest since April of 2013
2015-08-25 16:14:58 fib1618: where we had a reading of -127
2015-08-25 16:16:16 fib1618: sorry for the lag...I'm adjusting time data as I go along
2015-08-25 16:17:05 fib1618: Monday's breakdown in the NYA
2015-08-25 16:17:28 fib1618: broke another longer term rising bottoms line going back to that same low point in the MCO
2015-08-25 16:17:44 fib1618: and this provides us with a new downside price target for the NYA of around 8800
2015-08-25 16:18:10 fib1618: the close today was 9692
2015-08-25 16:18:40 fib1618: also of note
2015-08-25 16:18:54 fib1618: is that we broke below the -500 level in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM on Friday
2015-08-25 16:19:10 fib1618: which helped to Monday's gut wrenching open
2015-08-25 16:19:24 fib1618: very much like we saw in the summer of 2008
2015-08-25 16:19:50 fib1618: with intraday prices going beyond what one would consider "reasonable"
2015-08-25 16:20:07 fib1618: examples of this are found in all of our sector charts that we cover here
2015-08-25 16:20:15 fib1618: so you can look them over at your leisure
2015-08-25 16:20:51 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-08-25 16:20:57 fib1618: and we got more of a bounce there today
2015-08-25 16:21:13 fib1618: but if you looked at the intraday breadth figures in the morning
2015-08-25 16:21:22 fib1618: they weren't not all that impressive
2015-08-25 16:21:39 fib1618: for what would be considered a deeply "oversold" reflex rally
2015-08-25 16:21:58 fib1618: and with today's last hour losing over 500 Dow points
2015-08-25 16:22:19 fib1618: one can only conclude that much of what we saw today was more technical than anything else
2015-08-25 16:22:27 fib1618: but made up purely of short covering
2015-08-25 16:22:36 fib1618: and once that went away
2015-08-25 16:22:40 fib1618: so did the market
2015-08-25 16:23:14 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM moved down and through the -500 level today
2015-08-25 16:23:36 fib1618: which would make it difficult to hold any gains that would had been made today regardless of the outcome
2015-08-25 16:24:16 fib1618: you can really see the degree of which money is moving out of the markets right now with the large individual posting gaps on the MCSUM
2015-08-25 16:24:51 fib1618: something of which isn't at all surprising in here as we continued to comment on the congested postings in the MCSUM prior to this
2015-08-25 16:25:05 fib1618: and the compression being built by the MCO's over the last several weeks
2015-08-25 16:25:39 fib1618: very much like when you release a spring when its coiled too tightly
2015-08-25 16:25:42 fib1618: or better yet
2015-08-25 16:26:17 fib1618: winding up a one of those old wooden toy planes that had a rubber band as part of the propeller
2015-08-25 16:26:24 fib1618: and releasing it all at one time
2015-08-25 16:27:06 fib1618: anyway
2015-08-25 16:27:16 fib1618: this is what an Elliott 3rd wave looks and feels like [biggrin]
2015-08-25 16:27:54 fib1618: though we don't have enough information as yet to verify if our thinking that this is part of a corrective "C" wave or not
2015-08-25 16:28:18 fib1618: but hopefully we'll have that cleared up by next week
2015-08-25 16:28:24 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ
2015-08-25 16:28:46 fib1618: and we bounced today off a reading of -91
2015-08-25 16:29:45 fib1618: with our near term objective of only seeing a snapback toward what was the rising bottoms line that can be drawn between the July spike lows
2015-08-25 16:30:00 fib1618: before we'll likely see another probe lower
2015-08-25 16:30:19 fib1618: this does depend, however, on the position of the NDX breadth MCO
2015-08-25 16:30:21 fib1618: and looking there
2015-08-25 16:30:38 fib1618: not a lot of reflex there either
2015-08-25 16:30:39 fib1618: in fact
2015-08-25 16:30:45 fib1618: we had a small point change there as well
2015-08-25 16:30:57 fib1618: going back to Elliott for a moment
2015-08-25 16:31:05 fib1618: in order to confirm a 4th wave in progress
2015-08-25 16:31:08 fib1618: or better said
2015-08-25 16:31:19 fib1618: in order to know if a 3rd wave is done
2015-08-25 16:31:36 fib1618: we need to see the MCO's move above the point in which wave 2 terminated
2015-08-25 16:31:55 fib1618: so in this case
2015-08-25 16:32:00 fib1618: that would be the highs seen on 8/17
2015-08-25 16:32:24 fib1618: and we made very little effort to move toward this target today
2015-08-25 16:32:30 fib1618: because of this
2015-08-25 16:32:46 fib1618: the more likely idea of what we're doing here is that
2015-08-25 16:32:52 fib1618: we're still in wave 3
2015-08-25 16:33:14 fib1618: but today was part of a small wave 4 of this larger 3rd wave sequence
2015-08-25 16:33:16 fib1618: in other words
2015-08-25 16:33:23 fib1618: we still have wave "v" of "3" to come
2015-08-25 16:33:47 fib1618: and based on what we saw at the close today
2015-08-25 16:34:00 fib1618: that could happen as soon as Wednesday morning
2015-08-25 16:34:12 fib1618: and with it
2015-08-25 16:34:23 fib1618: we should have a nasty day internally to go along with it
2015-08-25 16:34:33 fib1618: not as bad as yesterday
2015-08-25 16:34:43 fib1618: but bad enough to push the MCO's to even lower lows
2015-08-25 16:35:03 fib1618: and that should set our "Flag"
2015-08-25 16:35:21 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-08-25 16:35:36 fib1618: goodness
2015-08-25 16:35:41 fib1618: we closed right at the price lows today
2015-08-25 16:35:43 fib1618: ouch
2015-08-25 16:36:07 fib1618: and the SPX breadth MCO moved deeper into negative territory
2015-08-25 16:36:18 fib1618: with a -144 reading
2015-08-25 16:36:40 fib1618: I have been asked lately about the 2250 SPX target and when it will be cancelled
2015-08-25 16:36:56 fib1618: and I haven't really answered that publicly
2015-08-25 16:36:58 fib1618: but for us
2015-08-25 16:37:12 fib1618: let me bring up a longer term chart so that I can share this with you
2015-08-25 16:37:51 fib1618: in order for this longer term objective to be cancelled
2015-08-25 16:37:55 orange: This whole move "feels" like a flash crash over 2 days...
2015-08-25 16:38:12 fib1618: we would need to see this MCO move below the starting point of the uptrend back in 2011
2015-08-25 16:38:25 fib1618: that reading there is -148
2015-08-25 16:38:38 fib1618: so with our being just 4 data points away
2015-08-25 16:38:50 fib1618: tomorrow becomes a highly important day for the longer term trend
2015-08-25 16:38:54 fib1618: if we hold here
2015-08-25 16:39:03 fib1618: than we should eventually see 2250
2015-08-25 16:39:05 fib1618: if not
2015-08-25 16:39:15 fib1618: then we have a longer term bear market condition
2015-08-25 16:39:17 fib1618: although
2015-08-25 16:39:51 fib1618: making this lower low would tend to keep prices from moving to even lower levels in the pattern
2015-08-25 16:39:54 fib1618: in other words
2015-08-25 16:40:16 fib1618: we would likely be stuck in a huge, multi month, trading range that could go on for a couple of years
2015-08-25 16:40:38 fib1618: back to Matthew's comment
2015-08-25 16:41:11 orange: I bring it up because with such a low MCO reading, I would think we would expect a larger bounce than what we got today
2015-08-25 16:41:13 fib1618: I think we'll always have a comparison to the May Flash Crash event
2015-08-25 16:41:28 fib1618: well...that's the big question, isn't it?
2015-08-25 16:41:35 fib1618: here's the situation
2015-08-25 16:41:50 fib1618: no one entity is large enough to control the market for an extended period of time
2015-08-25 16:42:02 fib1618: whether it's a government body
2015-08-25 16:42:12 fib1618: Goldman Sachs
2015-08-25 16:42:21 fib1618: or even a large hedge fund
2015-08-25 16:42:33 fib1618: they can only do temporary damage
2015-08-25 16:43:20 fib1618: it would take a total effort by all the participants to push breadth of market to such an extreme as we have right now
2015-08-25 16:43:46 fib1618: yesterday's open was easily forecasted by many measures
2015-08-25 16:43:48 fib1618: in fact
2015-08-25 16:43:59 fib1618: I made a list in a thread over in TT
2015-08-25 16:44:19 fib1618: you had over 5 billion dollars with sell orders at the open
2015-08-25 16:44:56 fib1618: you had large liquidation from markets in Europe and Asia from overnight sessions that could not find any liquidity to do so
2015-08-25 16:45:07 fib1618: the press was screaming crash over the weekend
2015-08-25 16:45:12 fib1618: and on and on
2015-08-25 16:45:15 fib1618: now...
2015-08-25 16:45:24 fib1618: like any short covering rally
2015-08-25 16:45:39 fib1618: that eventually turns into a more extended advance
2015-08-25 16:46:00 fib1618: all it takes is a couple of seeds and a forest can develop
2015-08-25 16:46:09 fib1618: and we can be sure
2015-08-25 16:46:21 fib1618: that just like we saw in 1987
2015-08-25 16:46:24 fib1618: 1990
2015-08-25 16:46:26 fib1618: 1998
2015-08-25 16:46:28 fib1618: 2001
2015-08-25 16:46:33 fib1618: 2007
2015-08-25 16:46:39 fib1618: when the market is moving fast
2015-08-25 16:46:56 fib1618: computer programs do all the dirty work with an blink of an eye
2015-08-25 16:46:59 fib1618: personally
2015-08-25 16:47:26 fib1618: I was impressed by the market's ability to hold above the 7% circuit breaker level at the open on Monday
2015-08-25 16:47:40 fib1618: as this told me that there were buy orders just above that level
2015-08-25 16:47:53 fib1618: so once we got rid of the "excess baggage"
2015-08-25 16:48:08 fib1618: we had program buying on a massive level
2015-08-25 16:48:16 fib1618: but as we saw later in the day
2015-08-25 16:48:19 fib1618: that didn't last very long
2015-08-25 16:48:28 fib1618: and the market faded into the close
2015-08-25 16:48:33 fib1618: today though was different
2015-08-25 16:49:01 fib1618: and not at all something that can be pointed to as being "flash crash" related in my opinion
2015-08-25 16:49:09 fib1618: it was more of a drip, drip, drip
2015-08-25 16:49:18 fib1618: and it just snowballed
2015-08-25 16:49:39 fib1618: there was an attempt to stabilize with 15 minutes to go
2015-08-25 16:49:58 fib1618: but you can be sure that was ETF/Mutual fund buying based on how the market bounced today
2015-08-25 16:50:05 fib1618: once that was gone
2015-08-25 16:50:20 fib1618: we literally lost another 200 points in 4 minutes
2015-08-25 16:50:27 fib1618: that's concerning
2015-08-25 16:50:44 fib1618: now I'm curious...let me check the futures
2015-08-25 16:50:45 fib1618: one sec
2015-08-25 16:50:59 fib1618: oh geez
2015-08-25 16:51:01 fib1618: oh man
2015-08-25 16:51:07 fib1618: let me get fair value
2015-08-25 16:51:33 fib1618: Dow down 157
2015-08-25 16:51:38 fib1618: SPX down 20
2015-08-25 16:51:48 fib1618: NASDAQ down 55
2015-08-25 16:52:05 fib1618: spidey sense is tingling again
2015-08-25 16:52:22 fib1618: anyway
2015-08-25 16:52:28 fib1618: everyone has an opinion on who or what may be influencing stock prices right now
2015-08-25 16:52:34 fib1618: and really, everyone would be right
2015-08-25 16:52:35 rite01: RUT up what's with that?
2015-08-25 16:52:41 fib1618: hasn't traded
2015-08-25 16:53:00 rite01: oh didn't know
2015-08-25 16:53:01 fib1618: the main thing here though to concentrate on
2015-08-25 16:53:22 fib1618: is whether we have enough money moving in order to stabilize the market or not
2015-08-25 16:53:31 fib1618: and we can all point (fat) fingers later
2015-08-25 16:53:34 fib1618: right now
2015-08-25 16:53:54 fib1618: I'm sure there are an absolute ton of margin calls being exercised right now
2015-08-25 16:54:06 fib1618: and this may had led to today's last hour
2015-08-25 16:54:16 fib1618: as people are forced to liquidate
2015-08-25 16:54:22 fib1618: it was an orderly decline
2015-08-25 16:54:37 fib1618: but it was purposeful
2015-08-25 16:54:47 fib1618: in any event
2015-08-25 16:54:53 fib1618: no matter what happens near term
2015-08-25 16:55:16 fib1618: it will take the better part of the next couple of weeks for the smoke to clear and then assess the damage of the last couple of days
2015-08-25 16:55:38 fib1618: and volatility will remain chaotic during this time
2015-08-25 16:55:59 fib1618: so you'll need a strong stomach, and an itchy trigger finger, if you're scalping here
2015-08-25 16:56:33 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is settled today with a -156 reading
2015-08-25 16:56:43 fib1618: checking the longer term chart
2015-08-25 16:57:08 fib1618: and we're at new lows
2015-08-25 16:57:24 fib1618: well...that pretty much puts an end to the 2250 target
2015-08-25 16:57:54 fib1618: so you folks are the first to know
2015-08-25 16:58:06 fib1618: also keep in mind
2015-08-25 16:58:13 fib1618: that when the MCO reverses here
2015-08-25 16:58:37 fib1618: it will be sharp...but we shouldn't expect prices to follow its lead in concert
2015-08-25 16:58:43 fib1618: sure, we'll have higher prices
2015-08-25 16:58:53 fib1618: but it will tend to be too far and too fast
2015-08-25 16:59:03 fib1618: and vulnerable to quick retracements
2015-08-25 16:59:45 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM moved down and through the -750 level today
2015-08-25 16:59:59 fib1618: so let's expect our next chance of support to come at the -1000 level
2015-08-25 17:00:03 fib1618: also remember
2015-08-25 17:00:13 fib1618: as the MCSUM moves deeper into "oversold" territory
2015-08-25 17:00:41 fib1618: the larger the average percentage move for each of the components that make up the Dow
2015-08-25 17:01:12 fib1618: right now
2015-08-25 17:01:27 fib1618: GS continues to be the highest weighted stock in the index
2015-08-25 17:01:31 fib1618: followed by IBM
2015-08-25 17:01:41 fib1618: MMM
2015-08-25 17:01:42 fib1618: BA
2015-08-25 17:01:44 fib1618: HD
2015-08-25 17:02:04 fib1618: here are the rest for your bookmark folder - http://www.indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html
2015-08-25 17:02:53 fib1618: so GE's 13% decline Monday morning only accounted for 1% of the weight of the Dow
2015-08-25 17:03:14 fib1618: but those kind folks at CNBC touted it as a major problem
2015-08-25 17:03:30 fib1618: being owned by GE probably had something to do with it
2015-08-25 17:03:37 fib1618: anyway
2015-08-25 17:03:42 fib1618: OH...
2015-08-25 17:03:56 fib1618: did anyone catch Tom McClellan being interviewed at the open on Monday?
2015-08-25 17:04:11 thespookyone: No
2015-08-25 17:04:21 fib1618: he schooled those folks about what the difference is between a bear market and a correction
2015-08-25 17:04:51 fib1618: told them that every time they call this a bear market they should put $1000 in a jar as a penalty
2015-08-25 17:04:59 fib1618: it was really funny
2015-08-25 17:05:08 fib1618: guess you had to had seen it
2015-08-25 17:05:17 fib1618: ouch
2015-08-25 17:05:21 fib1618: look at the MID
2015-08-25 17:05:27 fib1618: lower lows today
2015-08-25 17:05:39 fib1618: and this pretty much confirms that wave 3 isn't over...or maybe it is?
2015-08-25 17:05:59 fib1618: same with the SML
2015-08-25 17:06:19 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2015-08-25 17:07:02 fib1618: I can't really convey on how difficult it is to keep the MCO digging lower when we get to these extremes
2015-08-25 17:07:21 fib1618: just shows how weak we are
2015-08-25 17:07:46 fib1618: and that money is literally flying out of the market right now
2015-08-25 17:07:52 fib1618: keep in mind
2015-08-25 17:08:03 fib1618: that if we're in wave "v" of 3
2015-08-25 17:08:11 fib1618: there will be a lot of panic
2015-08-25 17:08:16 fib1618: so the VIX should skyrocket
2015-08-25 17:08:35 fib1618: oh man
2015-08-25 17:08:41 fib1618: it got above 52 on Monday!
2015-08-25 17:09:00 fib1618: but we could approach 80, for example
2015-08-25 17:09:20 fib1618: the put premiums must be out of this world!
2015-08-25 17:09:36 fib1618: could be a good time to look for some in the money call options
2015-08-25 17:09:44 orange: Yea, the premium is ridiculous
2015-08-25 17:09:50 fib1618: they're probably real cheap right now
2015-08-25 17:10:01 fib1618: this is why you can't chase this
2015-08-25 17:10:17 fib1618: better to prepare for the reflex that we'll sure to get
2015-08-25 17:10:32 fib1618: and let others climb over themselves to chase a falling knife
2015-08-25 17:10:50 fib1618: OK...well
2015-08-25 17:10:54 fib1618: back to the MID and SML
2015-08-25 17:11:02 fib1618: and we have now met and moved beyond the December lows
2015-08-25 17:11:09 fib1618: so let me get a new price target for both
2015-08-25 17:11:11 fib1618: one sec
2015-08-25 17:11:41 fib1618: it's the October lows of 2014
2015-08-25 17:12:58 fib1618: and if the OEX and Dow are any indication
2015-08-25 17:13:08 fib1618: we're going to see a pattern violation there as well
2015-08-25 17:13:10 fib1618: which means
2015-08-25 17:13:17 fib1618: well...let me check
2015-08-25 17:13:34 fib1618: but I think we now have our first Dow Theory sell signal since 2007
2015-08-25 17:14:06 fib1618: yes...we had it on Monday
2015-08-25 17:14:12 fib1618: so...
2015-08-25 17:14:27 fib1618: the odds are now very high that the 2250 SPX target has been cancelled
2015-08-25 17:14:37 fib1618: and we have a Dow Theory sell
2015-08-25 17:14:50 fib1618: (haven't seen anything on that as yet)
2015-08-25 17:14:58 rite01: not a word
2015-08-25 17:15:55 fib1618: do you know that the Transports are now down 19%?
2015-08-25 17:16:03 fib1618: and that's with cheaper costs of fuel
2015-08-25 17:16:17 fib1618: that's not a good sign of future economic activity
2015-08-25 17:16:22 fib1618: BTW
2015-08-25 17:16:40 fib1618: we've have talks from time to time on our business here
2015-08-25 17:16:45 fib1618: and back in June
2015-08-25 17:16:47 fib1618: I think
2015-08-25 17:16:58 fib1618: I mentioned that business dropped off a cliff in May
2015-08-25 17:17:13 fib1618: our industry usually leads stocks by 3-4 months
2015-08-25 17:17:18 fib1618: so...viola!
2015-08-25 17:17:33 fib1618: you look at the chart of the last couple of days
2015-08-25 17:17:51 fib1618: and it's eerie how close it resembles our internal data here
2015-08-25 17:18:02 fib1618: the good news though
2015-08-25 17:18:07 fib1618: is that we bottomed in July
2015-08-25 17:18:11 fib1618: [tongue]
2015-08-25 17:18:36 fib1618: anyway...let's see how the TM looks and we'll go to the volume data
2015-08-25 17:19:10 fib1618: and a small bounce in the TM breadth MCO
2015-08-25 17:19:25 fib1618: but check out that we closed below the intraday lows of Monday today on the Wilshire 5000 as well
2015-08-25 17:20:18 fib1618: let's take a look at volume (I'm afraid too, but you got to do what you got to do)
2015-08-25 17:21:14 fib1618: well the good news for the bears here is that both breadth and volume are in total sync to the downside
2015-08-25 17:21:21 fib1618: so we're trending
2015-08-25 17:21:52 fib1618: this then helps support the current structure as that of being "impulsive"
2015-08-25 17:22:18 fib1618: which then affirms the idea that we'll likely see a larger 5 wave structure to the downside before hitting bottom
2015-08-25 17:22:32 fib1618: since we did a small series of 1's and 2's
2015-08-25 17:22:47 fib1618: we should see a small series of 4's and 5'
2015-08-25 17:22:57 fib1618: the first 4 being today
2015-08-25 17:23:06 fib1618: the first 5 likely to end on Wednesday (?)
2015-08-25 17:23:38 fib1618: nasty looking price bars here
2015-08-25 17:24:10 fib1618: check out the way the NASDAQ and NDX price bars show a strong reversal and closed below the previous day's close
2015-08-25 17:24:26 fib1618: this is pure exhaustion
2015-08-25 17:24:57 fib1618: as if the bull has been stabbed multiple times
2015-08-25 17:25:53 fib1618: note also how we're getting simultaneous breaks below the July lows in both the NDX and SPX volume MCSUM's today
2015-08-25 17:26:21 fib1618: believe it or not
2015-08-25 17:26:28 fib1618: the Dow is lagging to the downside
2015-08-25 17:26:32 fib1618: at least internally
2015-08-25 17:26:40 fib1618: probably a run to safety is holding it up...relatively speaking
2015-08-25 17:26:49 fib1618: perceived or otherwise
2015-08-25 17:27:20 fib1618: the MID volume MCSUM is about to move down and through the -1000 level no matter what happens on Wednesday
2015-08-25 17:27:39 fib1618: small point change there as well
2015-08-25 17:27:51 fib1618: we still don't have the willing sellers out as yet
2015-08-25 17:28:16 fib1618: heard a lot of interviews yesterday on how valuations remain solid
2015-08-25 17:28:24 fib1618: that they're buying wholesale
2015-08-25 17:28:37 fib1618: sure doesn't come up on this radar screen
2015-08-25 17:29:02 fib1618: the SML volume MCSUM is also about to move down and through its -1000 level on Wednesday as well
2015-08-25 17:29:13 fib1618: this is not looking good for the bulls
2015-08-25 17:29:48 fib1618: checking the OBV's
2015-08-25 17:29:58 fib1618: and we are now "oversold" across the board in all time frames
2015-08-25 17:30:08 fib1618: so a reflex rally can begin at any time
2015-08-25 17:30:15 fib1618: maybe...a hard sell off in the morning
2015-08-25 17:30:29 fib1618: and then an equal and opposite move to the upside by the close?
2015-08-25 17:30:55 orange: What do you think would be the best vehicle for taking a long position? Short term
2015-08-25 17:30:58 fib1618: it will be highly difficult for the sellers to maintain their directional bias here
2015-08-25 17:31:10 fib1618: well...
2015-08-25 17:31:13 fib1618: just about anything
2015-08-25 17:31:15 fib1618: however
2015-08-25 17:31:18 fib1618: I would play the total market
2015-08-25 17:31:23 fib1618: and not sectors
2015-08-25 17:31:28 fib1618: in fact
2015-08-25 17:31:52 fib1618: the volatility might be just to great to trade efficiently
2015-08-25 17:32:00 fib1618: did you see the PM stocks yesterday?
2015-08-25 17:32:09 fib1618: oh hum during the day
2015-08-25 17:32:14 fib1618: and then in the last two hours
2015-08-25 17:32:23 fib1618: they got absolutely slaughtered
2015-08-25 17:32:35 fib1618: DUST was up 24% at the close after being up just 3% with two hours to go
2015-08-25 17:32:51 fib1618: and up another 10% today
2015-08-25 17:33:02 fib1618: so people are being forced to liquidate...including the PM shares it would seem
2015-08-25 17:33:18 fib1618: it's really a hard question to answer Matthew
2015-08-25 17:33:22 fib1618: for me
2015-08-25 17:33:29 fib1618: I'm pretty much flat right now
2015-08-25 17:33:50 fib1618: sometimes having no position, and just watching, is the best position
2015-08-25 17:34:56 fib1618: if I would suggest an entry for a long play
2015-08-25 17:35:20 fib1618: I take a position on any move back above the closing levels seen on Monday
2015-08-25 17:35:24 fib1618: not today
2015-08-25 17:35:26 fib1618: but Monday
2015-08-25 17:35:36 rite01: Noticed yesterday - the first thirty minutes of trading QQQ had only a 1 cent spread where IVE had $1.00 spread
2015-08-25 17:35:54 fib1618: yikes
2015-08-25 17:36:01 fib1618: that's fast market conditions
2015-08-25 17:36:18 fib1618: humans are not computers
2015-08-25 17:36:29 fib1618: that's another thing we're dealing with here
2015-08-25 17:36:46 fib1618: so if you're still short
2015-08-25 17:37:06 fib1618: It really depends on your time horizon here
2015-08-25 17:37:15 fib1618: the BETS says remain short with a bearish bias
2015-08-25 17:37:26 fib1618: but if you're trading with a shorter time span
2015-08-25 17:37:40 fib1618: you may have to be patient here and wait for an opening to squeeze in
2015-08-25 17:37:51 rite01: I would think the TICK should will give you clues intraday AT THESE times
2015-08-25 17:38:17 fib1618: it will help...no doubt
2015-08-25 17:38:45 fib1618: Matthew - you know the intraday TICK settings that I've shared here?
2015-08-25 17:39:21 orange: I do not recall them, but know you have shared them
2015-08-25 17:39:23 fib1618: just us a 19 and 39 period EMA on the intraday
2015-08-25 17:39:34 fib1618: make sure the TICK is cumulative
2015-08-25 17:39:42 fib1618: treat it as another money flow line
2015-08-25 17:39:48 fib1618: (which is is)
2015-08-25 17:40:26 fib1618: NYSE TRIN came in with another reading above 3.00 today - 3.08
2015-08-25 17:40:39 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.57
2015-08-25 17:40:45 fib1618: heavily "oversold" now
2015-08-25 17:40:51 fib1618: let me check history there
2015-08-25 17:41:57 fib1618: lowest reading since January of 2008
2015-08-25 17:42:13 fib1618: and that was a bear market kick off
2015-08-25 17:42:19 rite01: Dave what else would you watch on an intraday bases?
2015-08-25 17:43:07 fib1618: well...
2015-08-25 17:43:10 fib1618: it all depends
2015-08-25 17:43:14 fib1618: but mainly price
2015-08-25 17:43:31 fib1618: since I already know that breadth of market is highly "oversold"
2015-08-25 17:43:35 fib1618: so I watch the intraday TICK
2015-08-25 17:43:45 fib1618: I watch breadth plurality
2015-08-25 17:43:58 fib1618: I watch price and its behavior in relation to its EMA's
2015-08-25 17:44:16 fib1618: I try to keep it very simple
2015-08-25 17:44:31 fib1618: otherwise you start to second guess yourself
2015-08-25 17:44:41 rite01: breadth plurality which is in this case
2015-08-25 17:44:42 fib1618: for example
2015-08-25 17:44:49 fib1618: my plan for tomorrow is to stand aside
2015-08-25 17:44:57 fib1618: and watch what happens after the first hour
2015-08-25 17:44:58 rite01: good example
2015-08-25 17:45:14 fib1618: I will let others do the dirty work
2015-08-25 17:45:35 fib1618: the best instruction I can give here is to be patient and disciplined
2015-08-25 17:45:38 fib1618: and not chase
2015-08-25 17:45:41 fib1618: or get emotional
2015-08-25 17:45:50 fib1618: because we are dealing with highly emotional period right now
2015-08-25 17:45:56 fib1618: and mistakes are easy to make
2015-08-25 17:46:04 fib1618: and then you get frustrated
2015-08-25 17:46:07 fib1618: and you lose money
2015-08-25 17:46:13 fib1618: and that's not in our business plan
2015-08-25 17:46:21 fib1618: again
2015-08-25 17:46:25 fib1618: this is your business here
2015-08-25 17:46:39 fib1618: and your business deals with humans
2015-08-25 17:46:46 fib1618: and these days
2015-08-25 17:46:59 fib1618: artificial intelligence
2015-08-25 17:47:13 fib1618: which can not, and will not, be emotionally tied
2015-08-25 17:47:31 fib1618: you can learn a lot by just watching
2015-08-25 17:47:43 fib1618: since you don't have a vested interest
2015-08-25 17:47:51 fib1618: you will see things that you would miss otherwise
2015-08-25 17:48:20 fib1618: anyway...you want to trade on YOUR terms...not the markets
2015-08-25 17:48:41 fib1618: it's just as satisfying making a profit when things are calm as it is when they are chaotic
2015-08-25 17:49:00 rite01: will do, thank you
2015-08-25 17:49:07 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.23
2015-08-25 17:49:35 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.29
2015-08-25 17:49:53 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.57
2015-08-25 17:50:01 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.37
2015-08-25 17:50:05 fib1618: so....
2015-08-25 17:50:14 fib1618: not at all surprising
2015-08-25 17:50:31 fib1618: but we are deeply "oversold" on every account
2015-08-25 17:50:40 fib1618: where a reflex rally can happen at anytime
2015-08-25 17:50:54 tuna: futures are unchanged now
2015-08-25 17:51:11 fib1618: the problem though right now is that things are too volatile to get a good grasp on the situation
2015-08-25 17:51:18 fib1618: and there's a good example of "volatile"
2015-08-25 17:51:31 fib1618: this change in direction only happened in 90 minutes
2015-08-25 17:51:55 fib1618: yes...Dow futures are up
2015-08-25 17:52:14 fib1618: so is the ES
2015-08-25 17:52:25 fib1618: at this point
2015-08-25 17:52:39 fib1618: it may be better to see what kind of day we have on Wednesday
2015-08-25 17:53:18 fib1618: as this will help us identify what we're dealing with near term
2015-08-25 17:53:19 fib1618: remember
2015-08-25 17:53:27 fib1618: this all started last Wednesday
2015-08-25 17:54:07 fib1618: and this is just not enough time to really have a good feel here
2015-08-25 17:54:19 fib1618: deep breath....
2015-08-25 17:54:21 fib1618: release
2015-08-25 17:54:33 fib1618: let me check China...one sec
2015-08-25 17:54:56 fib1618: China not open yet
2015-08-25 17:55:27 fib1618: Hong Kong is up
2015-08-25 17:55:42 fib1618: there's so many scenarios here
2015-08-25 17:55:50 fib1618: the one thing I do want to stress here
2015-08-25 17:56:25 fib1618: is that we shouldn't use any of this Elliott theories presented here as being the end all to end all
2015-08-25 17:56:54 fib1618: yes...it helped in calling this 3rd wave structure
2015-08-25 17:57:01 fib1618: but things can happen so fast here
2015-08-25 17:57:25 fib1618: that patterns don't always become textbook
2015-08-25 17:57:32 fib1618: and you can get hurt because of this
2015-08-25 17:57:42 fib1618: use it only as a guideline and you should be fine
2015-08-25 17:57:52 fib1618: anything else?
2015-08-25 17:58:20 fib1618: any thoughts from others?
2015-08-25 17:58:43 thespookyone: Quick hands needed here if trading, especially if we get 4/5/4/5
2015-08-25 17:59:00 fib1618: yes
2015-08-25 17:59:24 fib1618: we may not be finished with sub 4
2015-08-25 17:59:31 fib1618: remember back in 87
2015-08-25 17:59:36 fib1618: it took 2 days
2015-08-25 17:59:42 thespookyone: yes
2015-08-25 17:59:47 fib1618: the 20th and 21st
2015-08-25 17:59:52 unc1998: Hey Dave, with breaking the 2011 MCO low in the OEX, what kind of downside target are we looking at there?
2015-08-25 18:00:38 fib1618: 775
2015-08-25 18:00:57 unc1998: thanks
2015-08-25 18:01:42 fib1618: I would prefer a second close below 820 though
2015-08-25 18:02:01 fib1618: but we have enough fuel (thrust) now to get there
2015-08-25 18:02:29 fib1618: well...the good news is that the price of gas continues to move lower
2015-08-25 18:03:02 fib1618: we might see sub $2.00 very soon for 87
2015-08-25 18:03:12 fib1618: hey...
2015-08-25 18:03:14 fib1618: how about?
2015-08-25 18:03:30 fib1618: those oil countries needing cash to offset their losses on oil?
2015-08-25 18:03:47 fib1618: that would keep the selling pressure on
2015-08-25 18:03:50 fib1618: in fact
2015-08-25 18:04:15 fib1618: some countries might "go out of business" with sub $40.00 crude
2015-08-25 18:04:35 fib1618: interesting to note
2015-08-25 18:04:55 fib1618: there's been very little terror in the world since oil has declined
2015-08-25 18:05:29 rite01: by design I understand
2015-08-25 18:05:36 fib1618: maybe
2015-08-25 18:05:38 fib1618: but again
2015-08-25 18:05:56 fib1618: OPEC hasn't cut their output either
2015-08-25 18:06:03 fib1618: but if the world is slowing economically
2015-08-25 18:06:13 fib1618: you doesn't take a lot oil to make it go
2015-08-25 18:06:25 fib1618: interesting times
2015-08-25 18:06:33 rite01: Yes it is
2015-08-25 18:06:39 fib1618: OK..if there's nothing else
2015-08-25 18:06:41 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-08-25 18:06:50 fib1618: I'm sorry I didn't have much to offer tonight
2015-08-25 18:06:57 fib1618: but with the market in free fall
2015-08-25 18:07:16 fib1618: we have to wait for more information before we'll have a good road map to work with
2015-08-25 18:07:24 fib1618: for now...patience is the key
2015-08-25 18:07:33 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-08-25 18:07:39 rite01: and that's why we are all here Good night all!
2015-08-25 18:07:41 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2015-08-25 18:07:42 fib1618: good night

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