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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-08-21 19:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-08-21 19:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-08-21 19:02:22 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Hey Dave
2008-08-21 19:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how are you Dennis?
2008-08-21 19:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you have a nice holiday?
2008-08-21 19:02:49 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: busy
2008-08-21 19:02:56 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: yeah
2008-08-21 19:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good to hear
2008-08-21 19:03:13 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: slowly getting back to the markets
2008-08-21 19:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, it's August...take you time
2008-08-21 19:03:47 [Message] denleo -> Main Room:
2008-08-21 19:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing happens in August...
2008-08-21 19:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions, comments, or insights before we get started???
2008-08-21 19:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for those in Florida, or south Texas...I hope the rains end soon
2008-08-21 19:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing worse than floods
2008-08-21 19:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since the market seems to be lethargic right now, is there anything financial anyone wish to bring up?
2008-08-21 19:07:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: surprised at how lethargic market is
2008-08-21 19:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mostly it's because of the time of year
2008-08-21 19:07:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: expected some attempt at pressuring shorts to cover before the roll over
2008-08-21 19:07:47 [Message] doc -> Main Room: isn't that what you need for a small point change?
2008-08-21 19:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: internally, we have a battle still going on for the near term
2008-08-21 19:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, we had many small point changes yesterday Doc
2008-08-21 19:08:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: washout in back of my mind, technicals tell me that we are going to get a squeeze
2008-08-21 19:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but overall, we saw what was expected over the last couple of days
2008-08-21 19:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold up
2008-08-21 19:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oil up
2008-08-21 19:08:53 [Message] doc -> Main Room: but yesterday, NYMO didn't quite make it, today it did
2008-08-21 19:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: stocks snapping back
2008-08-21 19:09:19 [Message] doc -> Main Room: and the full stoch is buried low
2008-08-21 19:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a good start...let's look at the stochastic
2008-08-21 19:09:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: want to address the issue from Tuesday night about whether fannie and freddie equity holders will be paid?
2008-08-21 19:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p13891726265&a=14317478&r=455
2008-08-21 19:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p08121587564&a=14317472&r=996
2008-08-21 19:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: getting down there...
2008-08-21 19:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the equity holders?
2008-08-21 19:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're always the last to get paid
2008-08-21 19:11:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we had a discussion on Tuesday, mentioned for me to bring it up tonight, its not as important as the other stuff
2008-08-21 19:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, the chart patterns say a lot
2008-08-21 19:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but since the FED has become a socialized entity, I wouldn't worry about it
2008-08-21 19:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2008-08-21 19:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as was the expectation on Tuesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO began its attempt to snapback to its zero line
2008-08-21 19:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: curiously though, we see that this MCO moved lower today in the face of rising prices
2008-08-21 19:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that we either have a lethargic trading pattern right now, or, it could be a forecast of another shake out coming in the next two trading days
2008-08-21 19:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the end of August is always problematic in this area of analysis
2008-08-21 19:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but since the MCO remained buoyant during the last several weeks, the odds favor that we should see a continuation to this same technical expectation of further movement to or towards the zero line
2008-08-21 19:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the price action itself
2008-08-21 19:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we see that we have completed the minimal expectation of snapping back to what was base support before the sell off on Tuesday
2008-08-21 19:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...at this point...hard to tell which side has the most power right now
2008-08-21 19:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a lack of sellers could push the market higher and a lack of buyers could keep us in this lethargic mood
2008-08-21 19:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday...we have seen lower openings and higher closes the last two days
2008-08-21 19:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the bulls are still putting up a good fight
2008-08-21 19:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which should eventually exhaust itself
2008-08-21 19:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but as we talked about earlier this week, if we're going to see any further downside fireworks, it will probably be delayed until after the next two weeks of Presidential conventions
2008-08-21 19:20:43 [Message] doc -> Main Room: take a look at the common only AD line
2008-08-21 19:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Olympic card is just about out the way now
2008-08-21 19:21:09 [Message] doc -> Main Room: it isn't supporting the drop below the early august lows
2008-08-21 19:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have an updated chart since last weekend Doc?
2008-08-21 19:21:46 [Message] doc -> Main Room: on DP?
2008-08-21 19:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the last update - http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad08/breadthdjia081508.gif
2008-08-21 19:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I really don't look at the data until Friday night
2008-08-21 19:22:52 [Message] doc -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-08-21 19:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (I can barely keep up with all of the projects I'm involved with anyway)
2008-08-21 19:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I did make this comment on the composite - http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad08/breadthspx081508.gif
2008-08-21 19:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "gasping for air"
2008-08-21 19:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: choppy periods are tough to trade
2008-08-21 19:24:41 [Message] doc -> Main Room: for that matter, the total NY AD line also stayed above the late July lows this week but broke the divergent early Aug lows
2008-08-21 19:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there isn't anything as yet that is saying "buy me"
2008-08-21 19:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...we're in the middle of a reset
2008-08-21 19:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it will take time to develop...if it does
2008-08-21 19:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this is the more important A/D line in my humble opinion - http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad08/breadthtnx081508.gif
2008-08-21 19:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as it goes, so goes the market
2008-08-21 19:26:17 [Message] doc -> Main Room: the open end bond funds I look at look crummy too
2008-08-21 19:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...it's holding support
2008-08-21 19:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (or at least was as of last Friday)
2008-08-21 19:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see how it looks this weekend
2008-08-21 19:27:47 [Message] doc -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?ABHIX,STHYX,FHYTX,PHYDX,NHFIX,MHCAX,PHIYX,GSHIX,PRHYX,JAHYX|D
2008-08-21 19:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as Doc mentioned earlier, we have a small point change on the composite NYSE breadth MCO today
2008-08-21 19:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2008-08-21 19:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our expectation of a small inverted ledge pattern continues to construct on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-08-21 19:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's running out of time IF this is the correct interpretation
2008-08-21 19:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another day of congestion would be fine, but if we don't turn around to the upside after Friday, we should look for the postings to start moving sharply lower
2008-08-21 19:29:39 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I have for a long time applied an ema of 6 to the mcsum that usually contains ledges if they are that
2008-08-21 19:30:10 [Message] doc -> Main Room: try it out if you like
2008-08-21 19:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially since we have met the objective of a zero line snapback, and a lower MCO reading today
2008-08-21 19:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will Doc...thanks for the tip
2008-08-21 19:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved back to the zero line, produced a small point change, and then moved lower today
2008-08-21 19:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seems that the bulls better belly up here pretty quick or there might be a volatile downside session coming
2008-08-21 19:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO continued to weaken with no attempt of a snapback
2008-08-21 19:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO today as it continues to struggle back to the zero line
2008-08-21 19:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of a situation with the OEX breadth MCO
2008-08-21 19:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Dow
2008-08-21 19:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, there really hasn't been anything that has happened over the last two days that's going to help us as far as the next two weeks
2008-08-21 19:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only that there doesn't seem to be any excitement on the floor...and that leaves us with the usual technical expectations mentioned previously
2008-08-21 19:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lower MCO lows today on the MID breadth data
2008-08-21 19:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe a shake out tomorrow?
2008-08-21 19:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCO continues to dig into "oversold" territory
2008-08-21 19:38:13 [Message] bill -> Main Room: Hi Fib...mostly a lurker and first time poster. Can you explain what the expectation is with a small point change in the MCO?
2008-08-21 19:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a near small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2008-08-21 19:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hi bill...welcome
2008-08-21 19:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the small point change is a guideline that was first observed by Kennedy Gammage back in the 1960's
2008-08-21 19:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the simple explanation is that when you get a change in the McClellan Oscillator of less than 4 points (using the ratio adjusted version), there's usually a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2008-08-21 19:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reason why this does occur is that the MCO measures the short term "trend" of money flow as represented by the NYAD
2008-08-21 19:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when this trend becomes "compressed", these compressed points usually unwind as would a spring that is tightly wound
2008-08-21 19:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in today's world
2008-08-21 19:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "a major move" would be anywhere from 1% to 2%
2008-08-21 19:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like all compression points, there tends to be a great deal of volatility as this same coil is released
2008-08-21 19:42:44 [Message] bill -> Main Room: Thanks! Very helpful and makes sense. All of my knowledge of MCO's comes from you Just joined DP this month per your advice.
2008-08-21 19:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks...and DP is a great source of information (breadth or otherwise) - I hope you find it useful
2008-08-21 19:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether you're new or seasoned in this area of analysis, it's always a learning process
2008-08-21 19:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I encourage questions
2008-08-21 19:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (though there is no guarantee that I'll have the answer)
2008-08-21 19:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...adding to the point of the small point change
2008-08-21 19:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: currently, many of the MCO's are within distance of their zero lines
2008-08-21 19:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the zero line is the point of demarcation between which side of the field has the power
2008-08-21 19:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so when the MCO is near or at the zero line, there is a balance between both buys and sells with one side about to take control of the action
2008-08-21 19:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sprinkle a small point change into this kind of mixture, and a lot of times trends tend to develop that last around 4-6 weeks in duration
2008-08-21 19:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we're basically indecisive about our indecision
2008-08-21 19:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is what causes these lethargic points in trading
2008-08-21 19:48:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: indecisive about indecision lol
2008-08-21 19:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key here is identify trends before the majority is able to acknowledge them
2008-08-21 19:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-21 19:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes called "crazy making"
2008-08-21 19:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is no clarity of trend
2008-08-21 19:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with no conviction, prices will tend to just chop
2008-08-21 19:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: down 50, up 50, back to unchanged
2008-08-21 19:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this pretty much what the market has been doing over the last two days
2008-08-21 19:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: leaving the nervous shorts to cover into the close...and viola!
2008-08-21 19:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, based on the math of the MCO
2008-08-21 19:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it wouldn't take too much negative breadth plurality to move the action lower
2008-08-21 19:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1200 advancers/2000 decliners..this kind of thing
2008-08-21 19:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if this kind of ratio starts to expand after lunch, it's a pretty good bet that there's going to be follow through into the close
2008-08-21 19:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, both yesterday and today had this kind of internal configuration in the early hours, but after lunch, this flipped to either positive, or in the case of today, just slightly lower
2008-08-21 19:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking a look at the volume side of things
2008-08-21 19:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE volume MCO had a small point change today
2008-08-21 19:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's fulfilled its expectation of a zero line snapback
2008-08-21 19:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the bulls really need to step it up here or the bears are going to take over the reigns for a while
2008-08-21 19:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change as well on the composite NYSE volume MCO
2008-08-21 19:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but here we did move back above the zero line today
2008-08-21 19:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking our line of vision to the NYSE volume MCSUM
2008-08-21 19:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we can see that this move back over zero on the MCO is creating an upward curl to the pattern after moving basically sideways for the last couple of days
2008-08-21 19:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, with a lower breadth MCO, and a higher volume MCO, this suggests that much of the increase in prices over this same two day period has been very selective...and weighted
2008-08-21 19:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also notice that the NYSE volume MCSUM is continuing to hold the -500 level
2008-08-21 19:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this should be considered near term constructive behavior and scores a few points for a bullish resolution
2008-08-21 19:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: see...indecisive about the indecision
2008-08-21 19:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ volume MCO continued lower today
2008-08-21 19:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so with both breadth and volume moving in sync on the NASDAQ, we can then believe that some of the selling going on in this index is moving into the NYSE
2008-08-21 20:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and more so into the interest rate sensitive issues (like utilities) than that of the common area itself
2008-08-21 20:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's jump to the XLU breadth data and see if this is the right interpretation...
2008-08-21 20:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup...breakout to the upside there
2008-08-21 20:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with nice gap expansion on the XLU breadth MCSUM to the upside
2008-08-21 20:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping in mind the idea that the larger the distance between the dots on the chart, the more the money is either going into or out off this same index
2008-08-21 20:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the XLE, as we talked about on Tuesday, we had a confirmed buy signal there since our last get together
2008-08-21 20:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a lot of this is repetition
2008-08-21 20:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and odds of chance
2008-08-21 20:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (or probability)
2008-08-21 20:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: staying with the XLE, the price pattern should find some price resistance at 77.50 near term
2008-08-21 20:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I wouldn't expect too much more for a while on the upside until we get the XLE breadth MCSUM at higher levels
2008-08-21 20:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless, something geo-political happens short term
2008-08-21 20:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...if we look at the components of the XLE breadth MCO, we seem to be in a counter trend move for now
2008-08-21 20:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, there's no reason to chase
2008-08-21 20:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the SPX volume MCO
2008-08-21 20:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so somethings cooking under the lid
2008-08-21 20:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the MID volume MCO
2008-08-21 20:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and has also bounced off its zero line over the last couple of days
2008-08-21 20:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the lack of movement leaves much to be desired for the bulls
2008-08-21 20:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML volume MCO is also continuing to unwind here
2008-08-21 20:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the SML volume MCSUM has now snapped back to its zero line
2008-08-21 20:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, we should see some sort of zero line support come in for this MCSUM
2008-08-21 20:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would mean we would have to see the volume MCO move back to or towards its zero line
2008-08-21 20:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the only way that this can happen is that we have a couple of good days of breadth plurality
2008-08-21 20:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks like an important "statement" day is upon us
2008-08-21 20:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I wouldn't hang my hat on it
2008-08-21 20:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM volume MCO went to lower lows today
2008-08-21 20:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so that can't be very good for the bulls
2008-08-21 20:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....
2008-08-21 20:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it looks like money has no idea on what to do right now
2008-08-21 20:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as the old saying goes: "when in doubt, stay out"
2008-08-21 20:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if a trend develops to the downside
2008-08-21 20:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or if shorting opp presents itself
2008-08-21 20:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there will be time to act to pick up a nice portion of the move
2008-08-21 20:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are pretty much no help here
2008-08-21 20:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: except we saw "a" price low after the near climactic readings of Tuesday
2008-08-21 20:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are "oversold"
2008-08-21 20:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are still "blah"
2008-08-21 20:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .71
2008-08-21 20:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (sniff, sniff..do you smell the short covering?)
2008-08-21 20:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...
2008-08-21 20:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .91 - neutral
2008-08-21 20:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.41
2008-08-21 20:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: open 10 at .91
2008-08-21 20:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (sounds familiar)
2008-08-21 20:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.21
2008-08-21 20:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at....
2008-08-21 20:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: .91
2008-08-21 20:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that .90 is neutral...can we say "indecision"?
2008-08-21 20:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market has no idea what to do right now
2008-08-21 20:18:34 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: sniff, sniff.. I smell a rat, but if I look closer, this rat looks like a bear
2008-08-21 20:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though it's "leaning" to the default
2008-08-21 20:18:43 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: "indecision is the key to flexibility"
2008-08-21 20:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to let others lead the way
2008-08-21 20:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, the bulls haven't lite a torch as yet, that's for sure
2008-08-21 20:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else is happening?
2008-08-21 20:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: BTW...business here is just awful
2008-08-21 20:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just about as bad as the late 1970's
2008-08-21 20:20:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I thought it was good, when did it awful?
2008-08-21 20:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's going back a looooonnnnggg way
2008-08-21 20:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything "fell off a cliff" at the end of June
2008-08-21 20:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're shipping...but the order sizes are very small
2008-08-21 20:21:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Is it supposed to do that at end of June?
2008-08-21 20:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually...there are two time frames that are the slowest
2008-08-21 20:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the month of July through the first half of August, AND, the last three weeks of December
2008-08-21 20:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's a funk out there that people are having a tough time shaking off
2008-08-21 20:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be the "darkest before the storm"
2008-08-21 20:22:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: funk = indecisive
2008-08-21 20:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or is that "darkest before the dawn"?
2008-08-21 20:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-21 20:23:01 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: calm before the storm
2008-08-21 20:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...well gas has gone down .75 in the last 45 days - we're now at 3.75 for 87
2008-08-21 20:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but usually when kids go back to school, things start to pick up overall
2008-08-21 20:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm not seeing that as yet, but locally we're having a state budget problem as well
2008-08-21 20:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...we'll know in September
2008-08-21 20:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but being the time lead of this industry, it doesn't look like it's going to be a Merry Christmas for the retailers
2008-08-21 20:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so something to look at now before this is discounted in the next two months
2008-08-21 20:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OH...fashion
2008-08-21 20:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: color story is....
2008-08-21 20:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Black and White
2008-08-21 20:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "indecision"
2008-08-21 20:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the last time this was big was at the 2002 lows
2008-08-21 20:25:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Just as long as it is not earth tones
2008-08-21 20:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: earth tones are OK...for fall
2008-08-21 20:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NOT for spring
2008-08-21 20:25:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k, I can buy that
2008-08-21 20:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: market wise...trade shows have been brisk with lookers
2008-08-21 20:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still waiting to hear if there was any paper taken
2008-08-21 20:26:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Paper?
2008-08-21 20:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm....what else can I share that can help us out
2008-08-21 20:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "paper" meaning the writing of orders
2008-08-21 20:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: an old term before computers came about
2008-08-21 20:27:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, I can add that I have been making profitable trades this week, but can't figure out how
2008-08-21 20:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's great to hear!
2008-08-21 20:27:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Sometimes just lucky I guess
2008-08-21 20:28:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: market all over the place
2008-08-21 20:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: naw...you had the some idea based on what you hopefully saw last week
2008-08-21 20:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you mentioned a couple of times that the odds were probably going to change to the downside
2008-08-21 20:29:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes,
2008-08-21 20:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you should always pat yourself on the back when a trade goes the way you hoped for
2008-08-21 20:29:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: pat, pat
2008-08-21 20:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like we also talked about...don't get too greedy yet
2008-08-21 20:29:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: mostly flat right now
2008-08-21 20:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-08-21 20:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I've been flat for about a month - haven't had anytime to really "play"
2008-08-21 20:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there's been nothing telling me to anyway
2008-08-21 20:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...if there's nothing else, I'm going to take off a little earlier than usual and see if I can get some things out of the way
2008-08-21 20:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2008-08-21 20:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll see if there's more to talk about next Tuesday
2008-08-21 20:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-21 20:32:06 [Message] bill -> Main Room: Good night. Thanks for the time and interpretation



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