All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,534
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-08-19 19:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-08-19 19:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-08-19 19:02:23 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Good, thx.
2008-08-19 19:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhh...the living!
2008-08-19 19:02:53 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-19 19:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...we're in a bear market...prices are going lower...that's all...good night
2008-08-19 19:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-19 19:03:28 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: works for me
2008-08-19 19:03:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks, have a good day
2008-08-19 19:03:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Buy spike in progress?
2008-08-19 19:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...we'll try this...we're in a corrective market, prices are going higher...that's all...good night
2008-08-19 19:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to say...haven't looked around yet
2008-08-19 19:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we've been talking about how the market needed another shoe to drop before this was close to being over...could be we're seeing the drop now
2008-08-19 19:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ascending wedge and declining right angle formations do suggest downside breaks
2008-08-19 19:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and...TA DA!
2008-08-19 19:05:59 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: SnP wedge violated, MCO's in red, NASI's turning down looks like start to me
2008-08-19 19:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: long in the tooth on the MCO...
2008-08-19 19:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OPEX shenanigans
2008-08-19 19:06:45 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: not to mention multiple rejections at 200 dma on many issues
2008-08-19 19:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rumors of a large institution shutting down
2008-08-19 19:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: high inflation
2008-08-19 19:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: car loans now on the watch list
2008-08-19 19:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Chinese have won more gold medals than the US
2008-08-19 19:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how much more can the markets take?
2008-08-19 19:08:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Beach volley ball is a great sport
2008-08-19 19:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: love it - better than the traditional
2008-08-19 19:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I must say that the coverage has been excellent
2008-08-19 19:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even the soccer matches have been great to watch
2008-08-19 19:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-08-19 19:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then we're all in agreement?
2008-08-19 19:10:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Agreement of what?
2008-08-19 19:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: - was waiting for someone to ask
2008-08-19 19:10:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Maybe we should look around
2008-08-19 19:11:31 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: maybe snapback to zero line before the big one (down)
2008-08-19 19:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we can confer on what to look for
2008-08-19 19:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after being above the zero line for the better part of 4 weeks, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved back below the zero line today putting an end to the short term positive trend of money flow
2008-08-19 19:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during this time, the CO NYSE volume MCO was lagging the breadth component suggesting that an exhaustion type move was probably going to happen sooner than later
2008-08-19 19:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also broke down below the support area of the descending triangle formation on the NYA today
2008-08-19 19:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a test of the July lows would be our short term expectation (that of weeks)
2008-08-19 19:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that the MCO did remain above the zero line for an average amount of time
2008-08-19 19:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this move lower, both in breadth and price, should create our first divergent structure in which to work with
2008-08-19 19:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the near term expectation now would be to see this MCO attempt to snapback to or towards its zero line and probably snapback back up to what was previous support before the breakdown itself - around the +20 level
2008-08-19 19:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any move to this point would present a short term shorting opportunity being that the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is still well below its zero line at this time
2008-08-19 19:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less, finding resistance in and around the -250 level
2008-08-19 19:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also generated a negative cross over on the components today, as well as, both components are now back below their zero lines confirming a sell signal
2008-08-19 19:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2008-08-19 19:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we were warned of this probable event last week when the composite did not confirm the higher highs that we saw with the CO data
2008-08-19 19:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking ruler to monitor, as we look at the NYSE breadth MCSUM, we notice that the current position is just above the line in one can draw connecting the previous two bottoms seen in November and March period
2008-08-19 19:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me look at the combo chart - one moment
2008-08-19 19:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still well below the longer and stronger line of resistance - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p88009015897&a=118792146&r=497
2008-08-19 19:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking still at the combo chart
2008-08-19 19:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the area in which I highlighted last weekend continued to provide resistance to the A/D line pattern itself
2008-08-19 19:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we are now back in a Bearish Configuration
2008-08-19 19:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can see the same kind of action here as well - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p06063388509&a=118792131&r=549
2008-08-19 19:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where the coiling of the last couple of weeks in the NYSE volume MCO had its resolution to the downside
2008-08-19 19:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we talked about all month, it's going to take time to build a base worthy of an uptrend
2008-08-19 19:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that hasn't changed
2008-08-19 19:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO fell apart in the last two trading sessions and is now testing the zero line
2008-08-19 19:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like all zero line visits, a bounce off this same line is our near term expectation
2008-08-19 19:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the combo chart - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p20967548256&a=118792179&r=962
2008-08-19 19:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here we see that the NAAD line, like its NYSE counterpart, had a tough time negotiating its way above its 5% Trend
2008-08-19 19:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less seeing the 10% Trend having a tough time moving back above this same 5% Trend
2008-08-19 19:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM, and you can see the line of resistance also playing a part in the last couple days of market action
2008-08-19 19:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at this point, we still have upside MCO price objectives still yet to be met
2008-08-19 19:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it wouldn't be too surprising if, with this impending zero line MCO bounce, that we see higher prices to at least meet our initial objective of the May/June price highs before we see any roll over in earnest
2008-08-19 19:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also of interest here is the current level of the NASDAQ volume MCSUM right now - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p13223202764&a=118792169&r=85
2008-08-19 19:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being turned away from its zero line as well
2008-08-19 19:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the bullish side of things, the NAUD is showing a simple snapback to its short and intermediate term "trend lines" which fulfills this technical expectation for the near term
2008-08-19 19:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how we bounce, or even if there isn't any bounce off these same area, will be important information as we move into September
2008-08-19 19:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the expectation here is for this "hesitation" to resolve with further upside gains in the NASDAQ volume MCSUM in an attempt to challenge the declining tops line shown on the combo chart
2008-08-19 19:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh yea...before I forget
2008-08-19 19:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mark your calendars - I will be in the city of "Lost Wages" the week of 9/8
2008-08-19 19:37:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh oh
2008-08-19 19:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so there won't be a chat that week
2008-08-19 19:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and coincidentally (or not), if we're still using the rhythm of the 9 month cycle, it's due to bottom that same week
2008-08-19 19:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always a fun time when I'm away in Vegas
2008-08-19 19:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on - as an aside...the AMEX data continues to look quite bearish right here
2008-08-19 19:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so oil and PM stocks are still not out of the woods
2008-08-19 19:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the good news though...is that we only have 300 more downside points to go to met the head and shoulders top price objective which is around the 1750 level
2008-08-19 19:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about some bullish breadth charts?
2008-08-19 19:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICK&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p14909225947&a=118792578&r=297
2008-08-19 19:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICKQ&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p55648793154&a=118792996&r=182
2008-08-19 19:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both at new all time highs
2008-08-19 19:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, under the surface, accumulation continues to go on (forced or otherwise)
2008-08-19 19:43:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: been going higher for the whole bear market.....pretty much
2008-08-19 19:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bear market, or correction?
2008-08-19 19:44:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: grrr, ok correction
2008-08-19 19:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was looking at Fib retracements this past weekend
2008-08-19 19:44:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: and?
2008-08-19 19:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lots of .38% and 50% met with the July lows
2008-08-19 19:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very orderly
2008-08-19 19:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this is a wave 2
2008-08-19 19:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we could see .618%
2008-08-19 19:45:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: In other words, lower lows?
2008-08-19 19:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as long as the balance of higher to lower ticks continues moving up, it's very hard to call this a bear market on a longer term basis
2008-08-19 19:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be TM
2008-08-19 19:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...another flush is probably needed
2008-08-19 19:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking back on history
2008-08-19 19:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if a sell off of a purging nature is seen, its not likely during the Presidential conventions
2008-08-19 19:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of goes in the same boat as September being the worse month for stock prices
2008-08-19 19:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually...
2008-08-19 19:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not always...
2008-08-19 19:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but usually
2008-08-19 19:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing we do know is this
2008-08-19 19:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market internals aren't burning the barn door right now
2008-08-19 19:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they've been sluggish
2008-08-19 19:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we've seen this on the A/D charts
2008-08-19 19:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: true...part of this is summer doldrums
2008-08-19 19:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's still a lot of questions needed to be answered
2008-08-19 19:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO powered its way below the zero line today
2008-08-19 19:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for every action there is usually an equal and opposite reaction
2008-08-19 19:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or at least, a snapback to the zero line on a minimal basis
2008-08-19 19:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the power of this same move provides a "full stop" to our adding to any long positions at this time
2008-08-19 19:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM, and you will see that this move lower is happening just as the bulls were about to even things up at the zero line
2008-08-19 19:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking ahead a bit
2008-08-19 19:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the technical expectation of a zero line snapback on the MCO were to occur
2008-08-19 19:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would create our old friend the "inverted ledge" pattern on the MCSUM itself
2008-08-19 19:53:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since ledges usually occur prior to the final move up or down, this ledge would probably give the support that would be needed to continue the NDX breadth MCSUM to move to the zero line, and more than likely, all the way to the declining tops line one can draw connecting the two tops seen on the yearly chart
2008-08-19 19:54:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What would be inverted about the ledge? wouldn't it just be a ledge?
2008-08-19 19:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words, it would be a HIGHLY unusual event to see further breadth weakness near term considering the strength of the prior MCO pattern previous to this same decline
2008-08-19 19:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ledges move against the direction of the MCSUM
2008-08-19 19:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so since the current MCSUM pattern is higher, this "inverted" ledge would have a downward bias
2008-08-19 19:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as regular ledges would have an upward bias during times of MCSUM declines
2008-08-19 19:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these are hesitation points prior to the final hurrah in pattern direction
2008-08-19 19:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another way to look at it...the space shuttle
2008-08-19 19:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the engines shut down, you get thrown back, and then momentum carries you forward
2008-08-19 19:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...having the MCO move below the zero line tells us that the majority of traders moving long has now been completed
2008-08-19 19:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with only the minority (the unwilling buyers in this case) still yet to throw in the towel (so to speak)
2008-08-19 19:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing, however, on the bears side now
2008-08-19 19:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that with both the MCO and the MCSUM below their zero lines, it will be much easier to move the market in this same direction
2008-08-19 19:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning that continued choppy behavior will not be so inclined to take place
2008-08-19 19:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also meaning, that instead of 2 steps forward and one step back for the bulls has now turned around to the bears side
2008-08-19 19:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it was very important in not being a bull hero earlier this month
2008-08-19 20:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term, the strength of the MCO's over the last 4 weeks is indeed indicative of a tradable price bottom being put into place
2008-08-19 20:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it does take time for the machinery to be greased up enough to work
2008-08-19 20:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for now, the bulls must remain cautious given that the zero line test lows of the end of July were violated today
2008-08-19 20:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was something to be anticipated last week given the thoughts on option insurance
2008-08-19 20:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of us in here KNEW that something was going to break very soon..so it shouldn't be at all surprising that we did
2008-08-19 20:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the important area to watch for moving forward will be how the various MCO's challenge their divergent lows of early July
2008-08-19 20:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's all that's important here
2008-08-19 20:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this, and how close we come to breaking our critical MCO support levels
2008-08-19 20:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the OEX data
2008-08-19 20:05:00 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: hi fib...we are very close from testing the july lows on the nya and thus reset the mcsum divergences
2008-08-19 20:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the data that made a lower low in its MCO early last week
2008-08-19 20:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we see there that we have fell apart quite nicely over the last couple of days
2008-08-19 20:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes RF - another down day like today would do the job
2008-08-19 20:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the time in which we should be looking for divergent structures to appear
2008-08-19 20:06:04 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: on a closing basis as hard to believe
2008-08-19 20:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might...but I wouldn't think it will be "that easy"
2008-08-19 20:06:24 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-19 20:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually during these kind of construction phases, there is a lot of time that passes to frustrate both sides
2008-08-19 20:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rarely do we do a quick and clean shake out
2008-08-19 20:07:11 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: the thing is the nasdaq is far advanced in its basing progress than the nya
2008-08-19 20:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it is
2008-08-19 20:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and should be in a much better position once we see the NYSE related areas start to show better constructive formations
2008-08-19 20:07:52 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: so i am thinking that it's going to retrace but not fully test the July lows
2008-08-19 20:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the NASDAQ?
2008-08-19 20:08:14 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-19 20:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: challenge, probably
2008-08-19 20:08:53 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: it will need to go down 10% or so
2008-08-19 20:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but first we still have outstanding upside objectives still yet to be reached
2008-08-19 20:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we have been discussing now for the last two weeks
2008-08-19 20:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it should be anticipated that much of any real price damage will probably occur after Labor Day
2008-08-19 20:10:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So fib, you are saying we make the mco indicated highs before going down into September?
2008-08-19 20:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, now that we have both the short term, and intermediate term trends of money flow in negative territory, the markets are vulnerable to violent moves lower
2008-08-19 20:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the upside objectives haven't been canceled as yet
2008-08-19 20:11:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How are we going to make new highs with violent moves lower??
2008-08-19 20:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're confused
2008-08-19 20:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-19 20:12:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I would agree with that
2008-08-19 20:12:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room:
2008-08-19 20:12:26 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: so am I
2008-08-19 20:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the near term expectation is for a zero line snapback, but this would not preclude a violent shake out before hand
2008-08-19 20:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the MCO's do snapback to what was prior bottoms above bottoms support
2008-08-19 20:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the action, overall, will be choppy
2008-08-19 20:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the point I was attempting to make about violent moves is that since both the MCO and MCSUM are below their zero lines
2008-08-19 20:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: prices can now move sharply lower with the addition of an emotional final purge
2008-08-19 20:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could happen tomorrow, or it could happen after Labor Day
2008-08-19 20:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is only an expectation
2008-08-19 20:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: timing is always the problem though
2008-08-19 20:15:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Maybe those MCO forecast highs just ain't going to happen any time soon.
2008-08-19 20:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: instinct wise...I smell something coming
2008-08-19 20:15:42 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i prefer tomorrow
2008-08-19 20:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until a price objective is canceled, it is what it is
2008-08-19 20:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one can say if an objective isn't going to happen UNLESS there is enough solid technical evidence to back it up
2008-08-19 20:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point...all that's happen is the fuel being used to reach these same objectives has been cut off with only the momentum of this same energy still yet to be seen
2008-08-19 20:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be a very chaotic world if we turned on a dime - it just isn't natural to do so
2008-08-19 20:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again...there's always tomorrow
2008-08-19 20:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if there's enough reverse thrust to either slow, or to the point, shorten these same upside objectives, only then can we say that they won't happen...anytime soon or otherwise
2008-08-19 20:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything in money flow is based on building blocks
2008-08-19 20:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...try not to let the market emotionally distract you
2008-08-19 20:20:41 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: fib the naz price mco objectives will only get canceled if we take out the July divergent bottom, right?
2008-08-19 20:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point, the near term objective of 2500 of the NASDAQ would be canceled only when the divergent lows of July are taken out
2008-08-19 20:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the higher objectives of 2800 would be canceled once the MCO makes a lower low than from wherever we bounce from here
2008-08-19 20:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we hold here, and bounce off the zero line
2008-08-19 20:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as long as we don't move back below it, and prices continue to rise, this higher price objective is still in force
2008-08-19 20:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more than likely
2008-08-19 20:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we will see bearish divergence first before this same lower low
2008-08-19 20:23:12 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: makes sense
2008-08-19 20:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it's a simple case of day to day
2008-08-19 20:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but between you and me
2008-08-19 20:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the tired look of the NYAD
2008-08-19 20:23:49 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: go ahead
2008-08-19 20:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would seem that a flat tire is going to ruin this higher objective from materializing
2008-08-19 20:24:36 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: very possible
2008-08-19 20:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...the objective is there, and is duly noted
2008-08-19 20:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like price pattern objectives
2008-08-19 20:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a pattern breakout that triggers a objective is just that...there are never guarantees that it will reach this target
2008-08-19 20:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's an "objective"
2008-08-19 20:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing more
2008-08-19 20:26:09 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i've learned to respect mco price objectives
2008-08-19 20:26:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, now that this is all perfectly confused.... we can move on
2008-08-19 20:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and always needing to be checked on
2008-08-19 20:26:28 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-19 20:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gee...sorry I'm being confusing tonight
2008-08-19 20:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe the market is "indecisive"?
2008-08-19 20:27:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will need to re read a few times I think...
2008-08-19 20:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...I just try to interpret what the market is saying
2008-08-19 20:27:41 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: it's never easy
2008-08-19 20:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although there are times in which I throw in some multiple expectations as well
2008-08-19 20:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line
2008-08-19 20:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as to not sound confusing
2008-08-19 20:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term - look for a bounce
2008-08-19 20:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short term - look for continued chop with a downward bias (meaning that any real surprises will be to the downside)
2008-08-19 20:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intermediate term...we still have work to do
2008-08-19 20:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better?
2008-08-19 20:29:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes,
2008-08-19 20:29:24 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: yep
2008-08-19 20:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes I throw too much into the pot...I'll lighten up on the seasonings...
2008-08-19 20:30:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I take it the IT is work to do upside?
2008-08-19 20:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: full stop...
2008-08-19 20:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the intermediate term trend of market is negative
2008-08-19 20:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the short term trend of market has now become neutral
2008-08-19 20:30:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So where are these MCO forecasted highs?
2008-08-19 20:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the long term trend of market is corrective
2008-08-19 20:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ask me on Thursday
2008-08-19 20:31:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Tomorrow, tomorrow and tomorrow
2008-08-19 20:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm not that good
2008-08-19 20:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm only a puppet
2008-08-19 20:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I believe I gave you this answer already
2008-08-19 20:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or, as Ian Hunter liked to say...."I'm just a marionette"
2008-08-19 20:33:26 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: nice!
2008-08-19 20:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow breadth MCO is now at minimal "oversold" levels
2008-08-19 20:33:37 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: waxing poetic tonight
2008-08-19 20:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a bounce is indicated here
2008-08-19 20:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will also notice that with today's decline we have smashed through the divergent lows of July
2008-08-19 20:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which now reverses the engines
2008-08-19 20:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also noted on the Dow breadth MCSUM is that we are being turned back right at the -250 hurdle
2008-08-19 20:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was also our last hesitation point before we fell down and went boomy in June
2008-08-19 20:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the price pattern itself, we see the outline of another rounding top formation
2008-08-19 20:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we all can see what happened when this same formation was seen in May
2008-08-19 20:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less...the price pattern of the Dow is looking rather ugly
2008-08-19 20:37:08 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I think that the financial sector is holding this market back, esp the largecaps--look at fnm, fre, gs, mer, leh, and nyx
2008-08-19 20:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...there's another shoe still yet to come - maybe something of the scale of Bear Stearns
2008-08-19 20:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe Lehman?
2008-08-19 20:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would make the most amount of sense
2008-08-19 20:38:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no, can't be Lehman....they said they were doing fine, have plenty of money
2008-08-19 20:38:40 [Message] doc -> Main Room: leh made the lowest close today since the July 14 lows
2008-08-19 20:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's bothering most (I'm guessing here) is that consumer credit spiked up last month
2008-08-19 20:38:41 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lol @ TM!
2008-08-19 20:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we still haven't seen what I would call the other area of credit that hasn't been touched yet...auto loans
2008-08-19 20:39:20 [Message] doc -> Main Room: MER a lower low
2008-08-19 20:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would effect many...we'll see how it goes
2008-08-19 20:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today
2008-08-19 20:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a bounce is the near term expectation
2008-08-19 20:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after reaching its upside MCO price objective last week (TM take note ), the SML breadth MCO slammed lower today
2008-08-19 20:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the components here are also back to their zero line as well
2008-08-19 20:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2008-08-19 20:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we're starting to find some resistance here just below the magic +250 level
2008-08-19 20:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that we were able to move above strong pattern and zero line resistance over the last week
2008-08-19 20:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our expectation was, and continues to be, for an attempt to snapback to or towards this same previous resistance area
2008-08-19 20:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good price support for the SML is now at the 370 level
2008-08-19 20:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though we still have one more upside MCO target of around the 405/410 level still yet to be attained
2008-08-19 20:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...this upside target remains, and will probably be met on this same expected technical bounce
2008-08-19 20:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM short term data is back to a sell signal, however, a bounce higher is our near term expectation before acting on this same signal
2008-08-19 20:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bears are going have one more bit of fun (not necessarily NOW...but later on...)
2008-08-19 20:47:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I won't ask
2008-08-19 20:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good - don't ask, don't tell
2008-08-19 20:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for all of your MCO price objective lovers out there...let's look at the sector charts
2008-08-19 20:49:02 [Message] doc -> Main Room: thanks
2008-08-19 20:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 32 level on the XLY was met intraday...so that's done
2008-08-19 20:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the upside objective on the XLP of the all time highs has been met...done
2008-08-19 20:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those in this sector (XLP)
2008-08-19 20:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pay attention to the MCSUM not being able to move above the +500 level
2008-08-19 20:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...time to stop accumulating for now...if antsy, you should be able to close with any bounce we get in here
2008-08-19 20:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 10% gain...not bad
2008-08-19 20:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: downside objectives have now been fully met on the XLE
2008-08-19 20:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the internals are well overdue for some sort of reflex higher near term
2008-08-19 20:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those who don't like to "play the market"
2008-08-19 20:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: waiting for the XLE breadth MCO to take out its previous highs above the zero line will be your trigger there...but with the MCSUM so deeply "oversold", expect any gains to be fight
2008-08-19 20:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XLF breadth MCO now on a sell signal
2008-08-19 20:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a challenge of the price lows of July would be indicated
2008-08-19 20:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the high extremes seen with the MCSUM, I wouldn't expect much more below this same low...if any
2008-08-19 20:55:41 [Message] doc -> Main Room: those lows on XLF were the all time lows...
2008-08-19 20:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too bad the XLF breadth MCSUM wasn't able to get back above the -750 mark
2008-08-19 20:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLF breadth MCSUM suggests that they will be very important lows longer term
2008-08-19 20:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very, very important
2008-08-19 20:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless...a major defaults
2008-08-19 20:56:41 [Message] doc -> Main Room: it had never traded in the 16's or 17's
2008-08-19 20:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we can all kiss our....good bye...
2008-08-19 20:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just don't understand how anyone can get so excited in anticipation of complete financial chaos
2008-08-19 20:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (just an offside comment based on some of the writings I've see of late - no one in particular)
2008-08-19 20:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLV breadth MCSUM is currently above the +500 level and this would indicate that a intermediate term uptrend is now underway
2008-08-19 20:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: upside price objectives here have also been met
2008-08-19 20:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that being the 33.50 to 34 level
2008-08-19 20:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, maybe, time for a rest
2008-08-19 21:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: personally, I would love to see how money reacts on a pull back
2008-08-19 21:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this is definitely the strongest sector right now
2008-08-19 21:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLI breadth MCSUM is finding resistance at the -250 level
2008-08-19 21:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it still amazes me how these 250 MCSUM thresholds continue to work
2008-08-19 21:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how does the market know this?
2008-08-19 21:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fascinating
2008-08-19 21:01:57 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: don't ask, don't tell
2008-08-19 21:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-19 21:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't like the price pattern on the XLB
2008-08-19 21:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks like a third wave down coming up
2008-08-19 21:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone notice the small SOB pattern on the XLB chart? (May and June)
2008-08-19 21:03:27 [Message] doc -> Main Room: yup
2008-08-19 21:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interesting situation with the XLK with the breadth MCSUM above the zero line
2008-08-19 21:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and finding resistance near the +250 level
2008-08-19 21:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what could be a handle forming on the price chart
2008-08-19 21:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it is...
2008-08-19 21:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: .10 above the previous highs and the sector is a buy
2008-08-19 21:05:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: then our simple rule will fail
2008-08-19 21:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: elongated ledge on the XLU breadth MCSUM?
2008-08-19 21:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and which simple rule is that?
2008-08-19 21:06:17 [Message] doc -> Main Room: naud at 200 ema marks the end of the near term rally
2008-08-19 21:06:30 [Message] doc -> Main Room: at least since oct 07
2008-08-19 21:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-19 21:06:49 [Message] doc -> Main Room: i say with tongue in cheek
2008-08-19 21:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhhh....but it would also say something else, wouldn't it?
2008-08-19 21:07:10 [Message] doc -> Main Room: CIT
2008-08-19 21:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup
2008-08-19 21:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the price pattern of the XLU looks rather triangular, doesn't it?
2008-08-19 21:07:48 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: what is CIT?
2008-08-19 21:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so one more move lower should do it
2008-08-19 21:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: change in trend
2008-08-19 21:08:05 [Message] Ron -> Main Room: tks
2008-08-19 21:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always a pleasure
2008-08-19 21:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's close to "oversold" - should be a price bounce due in the next day or so, with a small point MCO change to boot
2008-08-19 21:08:46 [Message] doc -> Main Room: note that for today, all the sector mco breadth and vol are in negative land except xlu breadth at +10
2008-08-19 21:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's neutral to minimally "oversold"
2008-08-19 21:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are...blah...
2008-08-19 21:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.12
2008-08-19 21:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we were over 2.00 yesterday?
2008-08-19 21:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .99
2008-08-19 21:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.63
2008-08-19 21:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and well over 2.00 yesterday
2008-08-19 21:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .87 after being "overbought" on Friday
2008-08-19 21:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.47
2008-08-19 21:12:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: nyse trin was around 1.98 or so yesterday
2008-08-19 21:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .90 - neutral
2008-08-19 21:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, that was a nice shift in direction...though overdone
2008-08-19 21:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's look for some firmness over the next day or so
2008-08-19 21:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and hopefully on Thursday we'll have some sort of blueprint for the last week of August going into the holiday weekend
2008-08-19 21:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-08-19 21:14:05 [Message] doc -> Main Room: why is after labor day
2008-08-19 21:14:13 [Message] doc -> Main Room: your focus for "badness"
2008-08-19 21:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...a couple of reasons
2008-08-19 21:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: next week and the following everyone is up in the Hampton's
2008-08-19 21:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Presidential conventions
2008-08-19 21:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we're probably going to see some bearish divergence first before we'll see any teeth in the bear
2008-08-19 21:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we only got a swipe of the paw
2008-08-19 21:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may be jugular time after everyone is "back to work"
2008-08-19 21:16:32 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Sept employment report also after labor day
2008-08-19 21:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: plus you have jobs data on the 5th
2008-08-19 21:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so next week is probably going to be pathetically slow
2008-08-19 21:17:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: so there are only 8 trading days left before
2008-08-19 21:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (famous last words)
2008-08-19 21:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-08-19 21:17:57 [Message] doc -> Main Room: any words on silver
2008-08-19 21:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: silver? ugh
2008-08-19 21:18:15 [Message] doc -> Main Room: it got hammered last week
2008-08-19 21:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so did its big brother
2008-08-19 21:18:30 [Message] doc -> Main Room: gold..
2008-08-19 21:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we found gold support where we needed to
2008-08-19 21:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right at the apex of the 4th wave of one lesser degree
2008-08-19 21:18:51 [Message] doc -> Main Room: 790-800 level on gold
2008-08-19 21:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad08/breadthpm081508.gif
2008-08-19 21:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that A/D line is butt ugly
2008-08-19 21:19:47 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: looks like a double top to me
2008-08-19 21:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...I would have to check the volume
2008-08-19 21:20:28 [Message] doc -> Main Room: bet the BPI is getting awfully low
2008-08-19 21:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone was SOOOO sure that we were going above 1000 again
2008-08-19 21:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: THAT was the kiss of death
2008-08-19 21:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mighty low...yes..
2008-08-19 21:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but BPI data is very slow to turn and confirm
2008-08-19 21:21:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hi dave
2008-08-19 21:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like new highs/new lows...the last to feel any benefit of direction
2008-08-19 21:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day dave...what's up?
2008-08-19 21:22:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bounce here in next day or so, would you include the financials in this?
2008-08-19 21:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...
2008-08-19 21:22:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: expectations for oil at 100?
2008-08-19 21:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but be aware that the sector remains "heavy"
2008-08-19 21:23:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in it today for a "trade"
2008-08-19 21:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing has changed...only the road map could be different
2008-08-19 21:23:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looks like fear mongering last 2 days
2008-08-19 21:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you haven't heard anything yet
2008-08-19 21:23:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on what?
2008-08-19 21:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to be an interesting fall (fear mongering)
2008-08-19 21:24:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i heard that fannie and freddie are done and going to be nationalized and shareholders will be left with nothing, while at same time, the Fed is saying and doing everything opposite
2008-08-19 21:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hey, why not?
2008-08-19 21:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's what we're headed towards anyway
2008-08-19 21:24:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, but not now
2008-08-19 21:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might as well join the world and share our pain with everyone!
2008-08-19 21:24:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not going to happen when everyone is waiting for next bear to happen
2008-08-19 21:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't agree
2008-08-19 21:25:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not happening till later
2008-08-19 21:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're already there
2008-08-19 21:25:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bear stearns
2008-08-19 21:25:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not bear market
2008-08-19 21:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only question is...do we run full tilt, or meander into socialism?
2008-08-19 21:25:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i was speaking about bear stearns
2008-08-19 21:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll know in November
2008-08-19 21:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was too
2008-08-19 21:25:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: everyone waiting for lehman or wamu to happen tommorrow
2008-08-19 21:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nationalization effects everything
2008-08-19 21:25:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not going to, maybe sept or oct
2008-08-19 21:25:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but not now
2008-08-19 21:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see
2008-08-19 21:26:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and fed will not nationalize now
2008-08-19 21:26:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: perhaps later
2008-08-19 21:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they already have
2008-08-19 21:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember March?
2008-08-19 21:26:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right, but shareholders still have value
2008-08-19 21:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-19 21:26:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: albeit, not much
2008-08-19 21:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-08-19 21:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rephrase...not much at all
2008-08-19 21:26:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fed asked for unlimited check from congress to backstop fannie and freddie
2008-08-19 21:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-08-19 21:27:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they not going to do it now right after asking for billions
2008-08-19 21:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure....
2008-08-19 21:27:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they may be forced to nationalize, but its not imminent
2008-08-19 21:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right...
2008-08-19 21:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they already have
2008-08-19 21:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you forget March?
2008-08-19 21:27:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: confused
2008-08-19 21:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Bernake already Nationalized the banking system
2008-08-19 21:28:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, im speaking in literal terms
2008-08-19 21:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once you open that door, you can't close it
2008-08-19 21:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm speaking in actual terms
2008-08-19 21:28:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where debt and equity holders both lose
2008-08-19 21:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's already done
2008-08-19 21:28:41 [Message] doc -> Main Room: By the way, high yield bonds still not suggesting that the worst is over in the financial sector
2008-08-19 21:28:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i am in agreement with you, but the stocks still trade and have value
2008-08-19 21:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do they?
2008-08-19 21:28:58 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: There is a new saying on Wall Street: Bernankraptcy
2008-08-19 21:29:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sure
2008-08-19 21:29:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: maybe not for long
2008-08-19 21:29:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but they do now
2008-08-19 21:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interesting discussion...maybe on Thursday
2008-08-19 21:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have to scoot
2008-08-19 21:29:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thanks dave
2008-08-19 21:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have a great rest of the day all
2008-08-19 21:29:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Hi denleo, how are you?
2008-08-19 21:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat on Thursday
2008-08-19 21:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-19 21:29:40 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Great
2008-08-19 21:29:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-19 21:29:52 [Message] doc -> Main Room: what are your thoughts on this market?
2008-08-19 21:29:52 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: How are you Doc?
2008-08-19 21:30:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: doing fine
2008-08-19 21:30:14 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: A bounce and then new lows. 1175 SPX or lower
2008-08-19 21:30:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: 50% retrace of the whole bull run, eh
2008-08-19 21:31:03 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: next low will be emotional. Hard to predict the low. I am shorting this coming bounce
2008-08-19 21:31:21 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: what do you think Doc?
2008-08-19 21:31:27 [Message] doc -> Main Room: sounds reasonable
2008-08-19 21:31:48 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I don't think this bounce will have legs to carry very far
2008-08-19 21:31:55 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: agreed
2008-08-19 21:32:10 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I think the financials haven't cleansed completely
2008-08-19 21:32:20 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: right
2008-08-19 21:32:23 [Message] doc -> Main Room: and that will be the emotional drop you are anticipating
2008-08-19 21:32:41 [Message] doc -> Main Room: also watching the trannies drifting lower here
2008-08-19 21:33:04 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: it will probably happen in Sep / Oct just like Dave was saying
2008-08-19 21:33:21 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I am not expecting much next week
2008-08-19 21:33:42 [Message] doc -> Main Room: agreed
2008-08-19 21:33:45 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: If tomorrow is up. I will be short.
2008-08-19 21:34:10 [Message] doc -> Main Room: are you hedging with gold, oil?
2008-08-19 21:34:23 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Not yet.
2008-08-19 21:34:32 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I have some exposure to oil
2008-08-19 21:35:09 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Have a good one. See you Thursday.
2008-08-19 21:35:12 [Message] doc -> Main Room: its not bouncing quickly, that's for sure
2008-08-19 21:35:20 [Message] doc -> Main Room: you too.
2008-08-19 21:35:23 [Message] doc -> Main Room: take care



__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch