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fib_1618

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For those who may have missed this weeks sharp price decline, I've decided to share Tuesday's chat transcripts with the rest of the Technical Watch members and other visitors to the site. If you're continuing to find it challenging to trade in the current environment, don't you owe it to yourself to find out what you may be missing in your timing that will increase your likelihood of trading success? Subscription fees for the chats and the weekly breadth charts are quite nominal in relation to the wealth of information and value that you'll receive plus you have the ability to go month to month as you see fit. Follow the link to subscribe today - http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

2015-08-18 15:59:58 fib1618: good day
2015-08-18 16:00:01 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-08-18 16:00:28 rite01: Hanging in there and you?
2015-08-18 16:02:44 fib1618: doing fine
2015-08-18 16:02:51 fib1618: thanks for asking
2015-08-18 16:03:07 fib1618: so do you think both buyers and sellers are pretty much frustrated by now?
2015-08-18 16:03:32 rite01: Yes
2015-08-18 16:04:02 fib1618: so the evil plan is working, huh? [smile]
2015-08-18 16:04:21 rite01: all that needs little more down side to put in a bottom in the MCO's etc...
2015-08-18 16:06:15 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-08-18 16:06:48 rite01: Last two weeks or so we've had several higher MCO readings in Index's that are not confirmed by price... What's your take?
2015-08-18 16:07:43 fib1618: do you have a specific index we can refer to?
2015-08-18 16:07:50 rite01: In NYA NASDAQ and S&P 500
2015-08-18 16:08:24 rite01: Yesterdays to last Monday numbers
2015-08-18 16:08:42 fib1618: when we get these higher readings during consolidations
2015-08-18 16:09:03 fib1618: these tell us that most, if not all, of the major selling is behind us
2015-08-18 16:09:27 fib1618: and that the price levels seen before these pops to the upside provide pattern support for prices
2015-08-18 16:09:59 fib1618: so why aren't prices following the lead of this breadth leadership?
2015-08-18 16:10:11 fib1618: and that answer comes with the position of the MCSUM's
2015-08-18 16:10:31 fib1618: as the intermediate term TREND of money flow remains negative at this time
2015-08-18 16:10:49 fib1618: so the MCO is telling us that the trading ranges are likely to hold
2015-08-18 16:11:18 fib1618: but there still hasn't been enough in the way of conviction as yet to cancel our downside price targets at this time
2015-08-18 16:11:47 fib1618: for example
2015-08-18 16:11:52 rite01: OK the SPX is MCSUM positive yet...
2015-08-18 16:12:13 fib1618: we've talked about how it would take a reading of over +25 for prices to cancel their downside targets in the NYSE
2015-08-18 16:12:22 fib1618: let me look at the chart
2015-08-18 16:12:48 fib1618: and we see that we had a reading of +27 on Monday
2015-08-18 16:12:57 fib1618: with, again, no follow through
2015-08-18 16:13:07 fib1618: so back to or toward the zero line we go to regroup
2015-08-18 16:13:32 fib1618: it's one thing to take out your enemy in segments
2015-08-18 16:13:39 fib1618: but to make a real difference
2015-08-18 16:13:57 fib1618: you have to take out a larger portion of the battalion
2015-08-18 16:14:23 fib1618: or the troops "plug the hole" as it were
2015-08-18 16:14:32 fib1618: sort of like a football game
2015-08-18 16:14:42 fib1618: and the running back breaks through the line of scrimmage
2015-08-18 16:15:06 fib1618: but doesn't get very far because this same hole is quickly filled with defenders
2015-08-18 16:15:14 fib1618: break a larger hole
2015-08-18 16:15:21 fib1618: and you get more yardage
2015-08-18 16:15:23 fib1618: or in this case
2015-08-18 16:16:08 fib1618: better gains against the bearish defensive backfield
2015-08-18 16:16:29 fib1618: so these are more like "chip away" moves
2015-08-18 16:16:34 rite01: thanks makes sense
2015-08-18 16:16:52 fib1618: as the buyers begin to break the defenses created by their time in which they had control
2015-08-18 16:17:31 fib1618: the best sporting analogy for the markets is football
2015-08-18 16:17:45 fib1618: as both sides fight each other to gain control of the action
2015-08-18 16:17:58 fib1618: and where the 50 yard line is the MCSUM zero line
2015-08-18 16:18:49 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-08-18 16:19:20 fib1618: after breaking above the +25 level on Monday
2015-08-18 16:19:39 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO snapped back toward this same area of natural support today
2015-08-18 16:19:52 fib1618: and even moved back below it
2015-08-18 16:19:55 fib1618: because of this
2015-08-18 16:20:58 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that the move on Monday was more emotional, as it was subjective, as it relates to where enough money flow was moving back into this basket of issues where a change in direction would be likely
2015-08-18 16:21:29 fib1618: for now
2015-08-18 16:21:49 fib1618: all we have is a nice series of bottoms above bottoms controlling the CO MCO pattern
2015-08-18 16:21:55 fib1618: with no divergence noted
2015-08-18 16:22:23 fib1618: this would then fit within the idea of the market going about its business in creating a textural low
2015-08-18 16:22:58 fib1618: but where some additional backing and filling would still be needed in order for this foundation to be called "cured"
2015-08-18 16:23:13 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-08-18 16:23:27 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend did make it above its zero line on Monday
2015-08-18 16:23:32 fib1618: but the 5% Trend did not
2015-08-18 16:23:40 fib1618: because of this then
2015-08-18 16:23:51 fib1618: we can only say that the market is in a corrective sequence
2015-08-18 16:24:06 fib1618: and not the start of anything in which prices can begin to trend higher
2015-08-18 16:24:32 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart
2015-08-18 16:24:52 fib1618: and we see that we are now close to closing our MCSUM gap resistance area
2015-08-18 16:25:00 fib1618: where if the buyers can accomplish this
2015-08-18 16:25:26 fib1618: this would then lower the odds of our meeting any further downside price targets that were previously generated
2015-08-18 16:25:53 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2015-08-18 16:26:32 fib1618: and we see that yesterday's thrust in the MCO provided the necessary strength for the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM to gap above its declining tops line that was controlling the pattern
2015-08-18 16:26:47 fib1618: so...taken together then
2015-08-18 16:27:04 fib1618: if we do fully close the MCSUM gap zone near term
2015-08-18 16:27:27 fib1618: it would then be less likely for our looking for a challenge of the February lows in the NYA
2015-08-18 16:27:30 fib1618: then again
2015-08-18 16:27:38 fib1618: this is only the Common Only stocks basket
2015-08-18 16:27:43 rite01: In order to have a divergent MCO and price the components have to be over the zero line?
2015-08-18 16:27:46 fib1618: so let's see if the Composite agrees
2015-08-18 16:28:04 fib1618: divergence is always between a momentum oscillator and price
2015-08-18 16:28:11 fib1618: in this case
2015-08-18 16:28:20 fib1618: the MCO and price on a short term basis
2015-08-18 16:28:30 fib1618: the MCSUM and price on an intermediate term basis
2015-08-18 16:28:40 fib1618: the components that make up the MCO
2015-08-18 16:28:44 rite01: right
2015-08-18 16:29:24 fib1618: only tell us if there enough energy to maintain any divergent triggers if they are hit
2015-08-18 16:29:34 fib1618: keep it simple
2015-08-18 16:29:40 fib1618: in order for prices to trend
2015-08-18 16:29:56 fib1618: both of the McClellan's, and the MCO components, MUST be on the same side as the others
2015-08-18 16:30:03 fib1618: same side of the zero line, that is
2015-08-18 16:30:09 fib1618: so if the MCO is positive
2015-08-18 16:30:16 fib1618: and one or both of the components are not
2015-08-18 16:30:20 fib1618: you can't trend
2015-08-18 16:30:22 fib1618: period
2015-08-18 16:30:28 fib1618: you can only move sideways
2015-08-18 16:30:45 rite01: keep it simple will do please continue...
2015-08-18 16:30:46 fib1618: again..remember what the components represent
2015-08-18 16:30:55 fib1618: the 10% is the 19 day EMA
2015-08-18 16:31:02 fib1618: the 5% is the 39 day EMA
2015-08-18 16:31:13 fib1618: if one or the other are below the zero line
2015-08-18 16:31:28 fib1618: then money flow is moving sideways to lower
2015-08-18 16:31:39 fib1618: if we get a positive MCO at that time
2015-08-18 16:32:05 fib1618: it only tells us that the speed between both of these EMA's is either moving toward or away from each other
2015-08-18 16:32:20 fib1618: so...
2015-08-18 16:32:25 fib1618: last week
2015-08-18 16:32:37 fib1618: we had both components below their zero lines
2015-08-18 16:32:43 fib1618: so the EMA's were declining
2015-08-18 16:32:44 fib1618: but
2015-08-18 16:32:50 fib1618: with the MCO moving above the zero line
2015-08-18 16:33:46 fib1618: it told us that the 19 day was beginning to trend closer toward the 39 day EMA and not trend away from the 39 day EMA as it would if the MCO were negative
2015-08-18 16:33:59 fib1618: this can include the 19 day remaining flat (the 10% near its zero line) while the slower moving 5% Trend (39 day EMA) is still trending lower to meet the 19 day EMA
2015-08-18 16:34:23 fib1618: another way to look at it is...
2015-08-18 16:34:37 fib1618: the rate of descent between the two EMA's was slowing
2015-08-18 16:35:08 fib1618: to where a change in direction (the 10% moving back above the zero line as it did on CO on Monday)
2015-08-18 16:35:14 fib1618: would be seen
2015-08-18 16:35:38 fib1618: if I'm not being clear...ask the question
2015-08-18 16:35:52 rite01: Yes it's clear
2015-08-18 16:36:00 fib1618: good
2015-08-18 16:36:12 fib1618: now looking at the NYSE Composite 10% component
2015-08-18 16:36:20 fib1618: it too moved back above the zero line on Monday
2015-08-18 16:36:29 fib1618: which meant that the 19 day EMA turned up
2015-08-18 16:36:32 fib1618: but today
2015-08-18 16:36:36 fib1618: the 10% is back below the zero line
2015-08-18 16:36:47 fib1618: so the 19 day EMA turned down again
2015-08-18 16:37:31 fib1618: while the 5% Trend (39 day EMA) continues to move lower, but the rate of decay has slowed
2015-08-18 16:37:36 fib1618: taken together then
2015-08-18 16:37:45 fib1618: and the A/D line itself is moving net sideways
2015-08-18 16:37:57 fib1618: and if you remember the cumulative charts from the weekend
2015-08-18 16:38:02 fib1618: then you know this to be true
2015-08-18 16:38:03 fib1618: AND
2015-08-18 16:38:06 fib1618: in this case
2015-08-18 16:38:16 fib1618: the pattern sequence is locked between these same EMA's
2015-08-18 16:38:25 fib1618: so they are being compressed
2015-08-18 16:38:29 fib1618: neutral
2015-08-18 16:38:31 fib1618: and why
2015-08-18 16:38:45 fib1618: we have near zero line readings in both the components
2015-08-18 16:39:09 fib1618: as mentioned earlier in the chat
2015-08-18 16:39:24 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO only made it a reading of +27 on Monday
2015-08-18 16:39:29 fib1618: and as we always say
2015-08-18 16:39:56 fib1618: once you get follow through after moving above these areas of natural support or resistance
2015-08-18 16:40:27 fib1618: only then can you work with the idea that the underlying current has changed direction
2015-08-18 16:40:34 fib1618: otherwise
2015-08-18 16:41:03 fib1618: these are like little eddy's...or large boulders...that can change the "current" direction but only briefly
2015-08-18 16:41:16 fib1618: before the stronger trend (or river current) continues its control
2015-08-18 16:43:50 fib1618: OK...let's move on
2015-08-18 16:44:07 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-08-18 16:44:17 fib1618: and here we also moved above the zero line on Monday
2015-08-18 16:44:37 fib1618: but with the components still a ways away from turning positive and providing support
2015-08-18 16:44:50 fib1618: we moved just as quickly back below the zero line today
2015-08-18 16:45:09 fib1618: sort of like sticking your head above water when the underlying current is pulling you under
2015-08-18 16:45:42 fib1618: bottoms above bottoms still remain though in the NASDAQ MCO pattern
2015-08-18 16:46:10 fib1618: but until we start seeing a string of positive plurality days in the NASDAQ
2015-08-18 16:46:29 fib1618: much of these pokes above the zero line are not likely to have staying power short term
2015-08-18 16:47:32 fib1618: you kind of get the feeling that the market is holding up here with the help of all of those speculative near month put buyers that fell again into the trap of pulling the trigger way too soon
2015-08-18 16:48:12 fib1618: but for now
2015-08-18 16:48:44 fib1618: we remain with a downside target still yet to be met of around 4850 to 4900 levels
2015-08-18 16:48:53 fib1618: no changes there
2015-08-18 16:48:57 fib1618: but with the series of bottoms
2015-08-18 16:49:09 fib1618: in order to provide the necessary foundation
2015-08-18 16:49:22 fib1618: we're likely to need to break this sequence of higher lows
2015-08-18 16:49:57 fib1618: but remain above the extreme low point seen in late July
2015-08-18 16:50:22 fib1618: again...everything continues to look like it's not going to be until sometime in September before a tradable price low is hammered out here
2015-08-18 16:50:46 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO "magically" found resistance at the +25 level today
2015-08-18 16:51:12 fib1618: and has now snapped back to its zero line
2015-08-18 16:51:37 fib1618: so we're back to being balanced between buyers and sellers here on a short term trending basis
2015-08-18 16:52:14 fib1618: heck..even the NDX components are solidly on their zero line as well
2015-08-18 16:52:49 fib1618: as is (or nearly so) the NDX breadth MCSUM with a -21 reading
2015-08-18 16:53:00 fib1618: so until we break definitively one way or the other
2015-08-18 16:53:10 fib1618: best to stand aside and watch from the sidelines
2015-08-18 16:53:13 fib1618: then to lead off
2015-08-18 16:53:36 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-08-18 16:53:52 fib1618: and here we had a nice power move on Monday as this MCO reached a high of +49
2015-08-18 16:54:11 fib1618: and today we have now moved back toward the +25 level
2015-08-18 16:54:25 fib1618: the components here are positive
2015-08-18 16:54:38 fib1618: so we technically have a buy signal on a short term basis
2015-08-18 16:54:49 fib1618: and looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-08-18 16:55:01 fib1618: we see here that it has a reading of +130
2015-08-18 16:55:11 fib1618: so, here too, we're on a technical buy signal as well
2015-08-18 16:55:17 fib1618: so good news there
2015-08-18 16:55:20 fib1618: however
2015-08-18 16:55:28 fib1618: (and you just knew I was going to throw out the "however" card)
2015-08-18 16:55:45 fib1618: we have two potential problems here
2015-08-18 16:56:14 fib1618: one is that the SPX breadth MCO has now been above its zero line for four weeks now
2015-08-18 16:56:21 fib1618: and historically speaking
2015-08-18 16:56:55 fib1618: the MCO tends to stay either above or below its zero line for 4-6 weeks in duration
2015-08-18 16:57:11 fib1618: so it's getting pretty mature there
2015-08-18 16:57:24 fib1618: what would be needed to extend this time element though
2015-08-18 16:57:48 fib1618: would be to see enough energy come in here to move the MCO above the +50 level
2015-08-18 16:57:55 fib1618: if this were able to be accomplished
2015-08-18 16:58:15 fib1618: then we would be able to meet the secondary problem here
2015-08-18 16:58:35 fib1618: and that is moving above the +250 level in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-08-18 16:58:50 fib1618: which also happens to be the point of horizontal resistance with the May highs
2015-08-18 16:58:58 fib1618: so is this doable?
2015-08-18 16:59:01 fib1618: sure
2015-08-18 16:59:09 fib1618: is it likely?
2015-08-18 16:59:27 fib1618: the odds are overwhelming that it won't be able to
2015-08-18 16:59:31 fib1618: but then again
2015-08-18 16:59:49 fib1618: it's been pretty dangerous to underestimate the power of this marketplace, isn't it?
2015-08-18 17:00:17 fib1618: so we'll give the SPX an "atta boy" and move on
2015-08-18 17:00:38 fib1618: now if the SPX didn't have enough to contend with on its own merit
2015-08-18 17:00:45 fib1618: then we move to the OEX breadth MCO
2015-08-18 17:01:19 fib1618: and here we see that Monday saw enough strength to move above the MCO highs of late July with a +34 reading
2015-08-18 17:01:30 fib1618: but we didn't get any follow through to the break above resistance today
2015-08-18 17:01:43 fib1618: and we're back to a reading of +17
2015-08-18 17:01:48 fib1618: more importantly
2015-08-18 17:02:04 fib1618: all of this strength of late
2015-08-18 17:02:21 fib1618: which looks to be more of a lack of selling than it would be fresh buying
2015-08-18 17:02:37 fib1618: has only accomplished moving the OEX breadth MCSUM back to its zero line
2015-08-18 17:03:07 fib1618: in what is simply a snapback to or toward the area of which was previously supported last week
2015-08-18 17:03:45 fib1618: the OEX components though have confirmed the switch of control from bear to bull
2015-08-18 17:04:06 fib1618: but if the buyers are going to have any chance of escaping any ambushes that might come up near term
2015-08-18 17:04:39 fib1618: they will have to show a bit more backbone here and be a bit more aggressive in their market opinions
2015-08-18 17:05:42 fib1618: also remember how yesterday started off
2015-08-18 17:05:46 fib1618: with a sharp decline
2015-08-18 17:05:48 fib1618: but once again
2015-08-18 17:05:55 fib1618: the selling dried up quickly
2015-08-18 17:06:01 fib1618: and the shorts had to cover
2015-08-18 17:06:17 fib1618: the same thing that happened last week
2015-08-18 17:06:30 fib1618: there's just not enough sellers at these levels
2015-08-18 17:06:32 fib1618: and longer term
2015-08-18 17:06:37 fib1618: this is bullish activity
2015-08-18 17:07:25 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is looking a bit more buoyant here
2015-08-18 17:07:38 fib1618: so far then...it would appear that the large caps are holding firm here
2015-08-18 17:07:52 fib1618: while the broader market continues to digest
2015-08-18 17:08:02 fib1618: oh
2015-08-18 17:08:07 fib1618: look what we have here!
2015-08-18 17:08:18 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO powered higher on Monday
2015-08-18 17:08:34 fib1618: and met the highs of July
2015-08-18 17:08:39 fib1618: but with a reading of +56
2015-08-18 17:09:02 fib1618: now in order for the MID Caps to break the current cap in prices
2015-08-18 17:09:18 fib1618: we will need to see this MCO move above this same July high point
2015-08-18 17:09:41 fib1618: but here again
2015-08-18 17:09:55 fib1618: we've been above the zero line now in the MID for 4 weeks now
2015-08-18 17:10:17 fib1618: could it be a last blow off of the shorts before allowing the market to finish off its necessary back and fill?
2015-08-18 17:10:45 fib1618: for now
2015-08-18 17:10:57 fib1618: 1470 on the MID seems to be solid price support
2015-08-18 17:11:17 fib1618: again taking ruler to monitor
2015-08-18 17:11:41 fib1618: we see that yesterday's posting on the MID breadth MCO broke above its declining tops line
2015-08-18 17:11:45 fib1618: and that's constructive
2015-08-18 17:12:04 fib1618: like we talked about last week
2015-08-18 17:12:13 fib1618: the market wants to go higher here
2015-08-18 17:12:41 fib1618: but it hasn't been able to break above the ceiling of internal resistance as yet to do so
2015-08-18 17:13:07 fib1618: but yesterday may have been an important day when we look back on this later on
2015-08-18 17:13:46 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO was also able to move back above its zero line on Monday
2015-08-18 17:13:59 fib1618: peaking out with a +35 reading
2015-08-18 17:14:15 fib1618: but finishing the day today all the way back to a reading of +7
2015-08-18 17:14:27 fib1618: could be a snapback
2015-08-18 17:14:41 fib1618: but it's bothersome that there was very little follow through today by the buyers
2015-08-18 17:15:16 fib1618: and we got to a +20 reading on the TM breadth MCO on Monday
2015-08-18 17:15:31 fib1618: but finished the day today with a reading of +3
2015-08-18 17:15:36 fib1618: so no breakout
2015-08-18 17:15:40 fib1618: and no follow through
2015-08-18 17:15:52 fib1618: and back we go to being neutral and looking for leadership
2015-08-18 17:15:55 fib1618: so...
2015-08-18 17:16:25 fib1618: Monday's rally pushed many of the MCO's above their technical resistance points
2015-08-18 17:17:02 fib1618: but there wasn't any follow through that would suggest that the (river) current has been altered from being negative to positive
2015-08-18 17:17:09 fib1618: what it did do though
2015-08-18 17:17:21 fib1618: is that we seem to be working out a price floor now
2015-08-18 17:17:28 fib1618: of which would be challenged later on
2015-08-18 17:17:48 fib1618: but will probably hold unless the MCO lows of late July are taken out
2015-08-18 17:17:52 fib1618: one thing's for sure
2015-08-18 17:18:00 fib1618: being that we have a lack of trading volume here
2015-08-18 17:18:18 fib1618: prices are being whipsawed quite a bit
2015-08-18 17:18:43 fib1618: as our blueprint of being choppy and volatile remains the best plan for now
2015-08-18 17:18:51 fib1618: let's look at the volume McClellan's
2015-08-18 17:19:56 fib1618: now both the NYSE Common Only and Composite volume MCO's are in much better shape right now
2015-08-18 17:20:25 fib1618: and this would support the idea that the price lows of last week are likely to hold short term
2015-08-18 17:21:04 fib1618: we also have a nice upward curl now in both of these volume MCSUM's now
2015-08-18 17:21:32 fib1618: with good upside gap expansion
2015-08-18 17:21:37 fib1618: HOWEVER
2015-08-18 17:22:04 fib1618: the NYSE volume Components are not complimenting this latest surge of strength
2015-08-18 17:22:28 fib1618: and this would only happen if much of this is short covering related and not that of fresh funds moving into the marketplace
2015-08-18 17:22:59 fib1618: personal note...I'm not getting a good vibe at all right now
2015-08-18 17:23:32 fib1618: check out the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's
2015-08-18 17:23:58 fib1618: and here too we see that we haven't been able to see any positive follow through to Monday's reversal
2015-08-18 17:24:04 fib1618: checking the MCSUM's
2015-08-18 17:24:21 fib1618: and the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is still sagging lower
2015-08-18 17:24:42 fib1618: while the NDX volume MCSUM is showing that no one really wants to deal with "current" conditions
2015-08-18 17:25:11 fib1618: as it's basically moving sideways...with a slight tilt to the upside
2015-08-18 17:25:33 fib1618: showing for the idea of a lack of selling is allowing prices to float to the top of pond
2015-08-18 17:26:01 fib1618: as with its breadth cousin, the SPX volume MCO looks pretty good here
2015-08-18 17:26:33 fib1618: but the buyers will need to show some follow through by tomorrow
2015-08-18 17:26:52 fib1618: or we'll likely see a deeper retracement toward the zero line on the MCO
2015-08-18 17:27:25 fib1618: and that would put a crimp in any chance for the SPX volume MCSUM to clear above its June and July highs
2015-08-18 17:28:10 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO wasn't able to clear above its late July highs
2015-08-18 17:28:31 fib1618: and the OEX volume MCSUM remains below its zero line
2015-08-18 17:28:41 fib1618: so with the MCO above its zero line
2015-08-18 17:28:44 fib1618: and the MCSUM remaining below
2015-08-18 17:29:03 fib1618: the only thing that prices can continue to do on an intermediate term basis is....
2015-08-18 17:29:07 fib1618: yep...
2015-08-18 17:29:09 fib1618: move sideways
2015-08-18 17:30:35 fib1618: the Dow volume MCSUM is now up against horizontal and natural resistance at the -500 level
2015-08-18 17:30:50 fib1618: after finding support at the -1000 level
2015-08-18 17:31:00 fib1618: and moving sideways just above the -750 level
2015-08-18 17:31:09 fib1618: so an important test coming there
2015-08-18 17:31:45 fib1618: the MID volume MCO moved to higher highs on Monday
2015-08-18 17:32:11 fib1618: but no real confirmation as yet with the components
2015-08-18 17:32:22 fib1618: the SML volume MCO also moved above its zero line on Monday
2015-08-18 17:32:29 fib1618: but the components are still negative
2015-08-18 17:32:58 fib1618: and the TM volume MCO has also snapped back today to its zero line
2015-08-18 17:33:20 fib1618: after failing to move above the +25 level
2015-08-18 17:33:39 fib1618: and the TM volume components remain negative
2015-08-18 17:33:41 fib1618: so...
2015-08-18 17:33:59 fib1618: we're definitely out of sync right now
2015-08-18 17:34:03 fib1618: between indices
2015-08-18 17:34:18 fib1618: and between short term and intermediate term trends of liquidity
2015-08-18 17:34:22 fib1618: because of this
2015-08-18 17:34:39 fib1618: unless we get something overwhelming flows from the buyers in the next two days
2015-08-18 17:34:45 fib1618: we're likely to regroup again
2015-08-18 17:34:52 fib1618: and more than likely
2015-08-18 17:35:19 fib1618: we'll see the market attempt to not only sync up by moving below the short term series of rising bottoms controlling the MCO patterns
2015-08-18 17:35:40 fib1618: but we'll likely see divergence between price with the MCSUM's in this effort
2015-08-18 17:35:55 fib1618: we are so compressed here
2015-08-18 17:36:02 fib1618: with each side thinking they have won
2015-08-18 17:36:10 fib1618: but neither has the power as yet to make a real difference
2015-08-18 17:36:16 fib1618: and so we chop sideways
2015-08-18 17:36:24 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's look
2015-08-18 17:36:52 fib1618: very mixed there
2015-08-18 17:37:03 fib1618: it's like traders are trying to lead off
2015-08-18 17:37:20 fib1618: and they're not getting any takers
2015-08-18 17:38:10 fib1618: with value stocks continuing to look like the "go to" area of investment
2015-08-18 17:38:36 fib1618: while the growth sector being like the ugly girl in the corner that no one wants to ask to dance
2015-08-18 17:38:54 thespookyone: When you get a minute, could you give me your take on the XLB? I love it here.
2015-08-18 17:39:00 fib1618: [smile]
2015-08-18 17:39:13 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .87
2015-08-18 17:39:23 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2015-08-18 17:39:46 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.33
2015-08-18 17:39:57 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2015-08-18 17:40:11 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.20
2015-08-18 17:40:23 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2015-08-18 17:40:25 fib1618: so...
2015-08-18 17:40:32 fib1618: we're no longer "oversold"
2015-08-18 17:40:42 fib1618: but we're not seeing any real conviction either
2015-08-18 17:41:06 fib1618: this whole thing seems like that the shorts are running the show right now
2015-08-18 17:41:21 fib1618: many trying to pile on because it's been too long for the bulls to do anything
2015-08-18 17:41:26 fib1618: while at the same time
2015-08-18 17:41:50 fib1618: the clock is against them and they are getting tired of waiting for the big prize
2015-08-18 17:42:09 fib1618: we might have to wait until after OPEX it would seem to get all of this sorted
2015-08-18 17:42:30 fib1618: leaving us with continued compressed action for the rest of the week
2015-08-18 17:42:32 fib1618: we'll see
2015-08-18 17:42:36 fib1618: OK...XLB
2015-08-18 17:42:40 fib1618: let me pull it up
2015-08-18 17:42:44 thespookyone: thx
2015-08-18 17:44:27 fib1618: to be honest
2015-08-18 17:44:49 fib1618: with the XLB breadth MCSUM moving higher and just now approaching the -750 level
2015-08-18 17:45:02 fib1618: there's still time to look for a long entry
2015-08-18 17:45:10 fib1618: but as long as the MCSUM remains below the -500 level
2015-08-18 17:45:31 fib1618: prices will tend to construct a platform from which it can rally off of later on
2015-08-18 17:45:57 fib1618: if you're an investor though
2015-08-18 17:46:07 fib1618: given Monday's market bounce
2015-08-18 17:46:15 fib1618: and the higher MCO readings in the XLB last week
2015-08-18 17:46:22 fib1618: I guess you could nibble here
2015-08-18 17:46:26 thespookyone: yes, I like the first move off the bottom, and the MCO seems to be trying. It took out all the highs since march on the MCO...
2015-08-18 17:46:39 fib1618: with a stop .10 below the lows of late July
2015-08-18 17:46:50 fib1618: yes...and that secures the price lows
2015-08-18 17:47:06 fib1618: but until the intermediate term is able to climb out of its hole
2015-08-18 17:47:16 fib1618: prices are not likely to appreciate near term
2015-08-18 17:47:20 fib1618: I would be patient for now
2015-08-18 17:47:29 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-08-18 17:47:50 thespookyone: sure. The XLF MCSUM moving North of 500+ pretty well, too
2015-08-18 17:48:48 thespookyone: postings getting a bit wider
2015-08-18 17:48:52 fib1618: yep
2015-08-18 17:49:10 fib1618: need about 2 minutes to update the cumulative charts - brb
2015-08-18 17:54:40 fib1618: Canada looks awful
2015-08-18 17:54:47 fib1618: -65
2015-08-18 17:54:59 fib1618: we actually lost 10 points in 2 days
2015-08-18 17:55:05 fib1618: that is not a good sign at all
2015-08-18 17:55:13 fib1618: anything else?
2015-08-18 17:56:03 thespookyone: ISEE was 95
2015-08-18 17:56:17 fib1618: yea...finally above 80 for the first time in a while
2015-08-18 17:56:24 fib1618: too many put buyers of late
2015-08-18 17:56:36 thespookyone: the more, the merrier, LOL
2015-08-18 17:56:40 rite01: spooky XLU MCSUM looks pretty good but MCO has been above 0 for 4 weeks already
2015-08-18 17:56:46 fib1618: happens every time
2015-08-18 17:57:04 fib1618: we'll hit the sectors on Thursday (as we always do)
2015-08-18 17:57:09 fib1618: Oh...and remember that our next chat has been changed to Thursday
2015-08-18 17:57:14 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-08-18 17:57:17 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-08-18 17:57:18 thespookyone: thx
2015-08-18 17:57:22 fib1618: everyone have a good couple of days
2015-08-18 17:57:35 fib1618: and we'll see if anything shimmies and shakes between now and then
2015-08-18 17:57:37 fib1618: good night
2015-08-18 17:57:47 rite01: Good night ALL!

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