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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-08-14 19:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-08-14 19:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-08-14 19:05:25 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Great, thx.
2008-08-14 19:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good to hear!
2008-08-14 19:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-08-14 19:07:33 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Don't like NYA lagging Dow here
2008-08-14 19:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYA seems to be lagging everything
2008-08-14 19:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just a distraction...play no attention to the man behind the curtain
2008-08-14 19:09:13 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-14 19:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile...breadth of market remains steady
2008-08-14 19:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's all that counts
2008-08-14 19:09:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, at what price level will the SPX close on Friday and Monday? How's that for a precise question?
2008-08-14 19:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price will follow
2008-08-14 19:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: precise answer...I don't know
2008-08-14 19:10:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-14 19:10:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: well, you asked for questions
2008-08-14 19:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price is just a distraction
2008-08-14 19:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I sure did - never said I would have answers though...
2008-08-14 19:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line...the market is nervous
2008-08-14 19:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's choppy
2008-08-14 19:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's indecisive
2008-08-14 19:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a bullish bias
2008-08-14 19:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: waiting to see which foot will drop next
2008-08-14 19:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all part of constructing a bottom
2008-08-14 19:12:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: sounds like what we concluded two weeks ago
2008-08-14 19:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, nothing has really changed since that time
2008-08-14 19:12:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: and we were right
2008-08-14 19:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though it will over time
2008-08-14 19:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market fell down and went boomy
2008-08-14 19:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, it has to pick itself up, dust itself off, and straighten up
2008-08-14 19:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: alright...let's get DP up and get started...shall we?
2008-08-14 19:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO once again moved higher today and remains in a horizontal range
2008-08-14 19:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern, while the price action continues to compress
2008-08-14 19:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today's move higher in the MCO continued to give us higher seperation of the postings on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-08-14 19:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: presenting us with the conclusion that money flow continues to move into the market
2008-08-14 19:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking our line of vision to the components
2008-08-14 19:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we see that the technical expectation of a snapback to or towards the zero line for the 10%, while the 5% repels from this same demarcation line, as having completed this forecast
2008-08-14 19:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and both components are now above their zero line giving us a new buy signal
2008-08-14 19:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we talked about last week
2008-08-14 19:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until we see the CO NYSE breadth MCO move above its reaction highs, it's going to be tough for the price pattern to break out of its range in this same direction
2008-08-14 19:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved higher today
2008-08-14 19:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it too continues to support a bottoms above bottoms structure
2008-08-14 19:21:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: and mco tops below tops......triangle maybe?
2008-08-14 19:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM still showing a negative reading of -445, this adds pressure for the price pattern to break out of its current sideways action
2008-08-14 19:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, we are compressing
2008-08-14 19:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as mentioned earlier...the market is tense and undecided
2008-08-14 19:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the bulls remain in control of the short term action
2008-08-14 19:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's their's to lose
2008-08-14 19:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NYSE composite components, we see that our expectation of a zero line snapback for the 10% component has now been met, and we have bounced off the zero line today
2008-08-14 19:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile, the 5% components continues to struggle towards this same line of neutrality
2008-08-14 19:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we can get this intermediate term time frame component back above zero, we're just going to chop around
2008-08-14 19:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking back to the MCO itself
2008-08-14 19:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we notice that it's sideways pattern continues to find support in and around the +25 level showing the strength of the current A/D ratio
2008-08-14 19:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like it's acting as a zero line, but at an elevated level
2008-08-14 19:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term, this is very good news for the market bulls
2008-08-14 19:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the longer we remain at these levels, the longer and stronger the eventual pattern breakout will be later on
2008-08-14 19:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we just need time to pass...meaning patience
2008-08-14 19:26:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: aren't we getting long of tooth for mco above 0?
2008-08-14 19:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are...but there doesn't seem to be any weakness coming in as yet
2008-08-14 19:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why I mentioned the current position of the MCO
2008-08-14 19:27:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, quite strong mco
2008-08-14 19:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the idea being is this
2008-08-14 19:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the market tires...
2008-08-14 19:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and those who have been following this for a while will attest to
2008-08-14 19:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we usually see first is a test of the zero line...the balance between buyers and sellers
2008-08-14 19:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bounce higher to see how the bulls perform given the prior trend
2008-08-14 19:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if and when that fails, then we move swiftly below this same zero line as the "other side" takes command
2008-08-14 19:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so although history suggests that we're getting long in the tooth here, until the market decides that it's been exhausted of buyers, we keep on keeping on
2008-08-14 19:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like the old saying: "things will continue to work...until they don't"
2008-08-14 19:29:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: all the news today bad, IMO, and market still nice advance
2008-08-14 19:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market loves fear
2008-08-14 19:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market loves to climb a "wall of worry"
2008-08-14 19:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a delicate balance really
2008-08-14 19:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in that...how do you decide that worry is a good thing, as opposed to not having clarity
2008-08-14 19:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with this same worry, we don't have clarity in several areas
2008-08-14 19:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but technically, we were "oversold"
2008-08-14 19:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in some cases, deeply "oversold"
2008-08-14 19:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so just in physics, there must be a relief to this same burdening pressure before any possible resumption can occur
2008-08-14 19:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at crashes
2008-08-14 19:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market may crash, but for several weeks, if not months, we see firmness in a attempt to find balance
2008-08-14 19:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and during this same time, nothing really changes, does it?
2008-08-14 19:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the news is still the same
2008-08-14 19:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in some cases, worse than before
2008-08-14 19:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all a game
2008-08-14 19:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when everyone thinks they know what's going on, the market distracts
2008-08-14 19:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping the majority from capitalizing
2008-08-14 19:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so the saying goes: "bull markets do not like company"
2008-08-14 19:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and bear markets give you "no time to get out"
2008-08-14 19:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like, you become stuck
2008-08-14 19:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because...you believed yourself to right about the future
2008-08-14 19:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just at the time in which the market had already discounted this same thinking
2008-08-14 19:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's why sentiment is a good indicator to follow, but like everything else, must be used judiciously
2008-08-14 19:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...every high is the top
2008-08-14 19:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the news is bad
2008-08-14 19:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so why should the market continue to go up?
2008-08-14 19:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because...
2008-08-14 19:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything you see, hear, and feel now, was already discounted months ago
2008-08-14 19:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the market is always doing is discounting future fundamentals
2008-08-14 19:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which, right now, are fair
2008-08-14 19:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you're feeling now is what the market already discounted in June...maybe March, with the June/July decline still yet to be felt
2008-08-14 19:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the second shoe as it were
2008-08-14 19:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what may be in line with something like the 9 month low due next month
2008-08-14 19:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but technically
2008-08-14 19:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the longer the MCO's can stay above the zero line, the better the odds for the market to eventually break out of its funk
2008-08-14 19:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's what's important
2008-08-14 19:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: timing?
2008-08-14 19:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always the $1000 question
2008-08-14 19:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (used to be $1,000,000 - but things have changed )
2008-08-14 19:40:12 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lol
2008-08-14 19:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO once again moved higher today
2008-08-14 19:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and remains in and around the natural "overbought" level of +50
2008-08-14 19:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with this move higher, the COMPX continues its climb towards pattern resistance
2008-08-14 19:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (love that rounded bottom pattern)
2008-08-14 19:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2008-08-14 19:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can see that today's move higher was the effort needed to move above the little hesitation point seen back on the chart in June
2008-08-14 19:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, the next objective for this MCSUM will be the zero line
2008-08-14 19:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while on the way there, we might see some hesitation at the -200 level where we see some additional pattern resistance
2008-08-14 19:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to tell right now because of the longevity of the move above the zero line on the MCO
2008-08-14 19:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, if this MCO is able to move to higher highs again, this same level will be broken
2008-08-14 19:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all about energy - the product that allows price to move in one direction or the other
2008-08-14 19:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the MCSUM itself, there is no argument on the flow of money here
2008-08-14 19:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a beautiful advance of the MCSUM structure...with no hesitations whatsoever
2008-08-14 19:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving down to the NASDAQ MCO components
2008-08-14 19:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 10% remains above the zero line, and the 5% bounced off of zero line support confrrming the recent buy signal there
2008-08-14 19:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point then, nothing has changed as far as price projections given on Tuesday...the SOB price highs
2008-08-14 19:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we get another higher level on the MCO, the retracement highs of last fall will then be doable during this current advance
2008-08-14 19:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (what a killer that would be for the shorts)
2008-08-14 19:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the price pattern itself of the COMPQ
2008-08-14 19:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we definitely have a base working here
2008-08-14 19:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe a double bottom...hard to tell without the volume data
2008-08-14 19:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and taking a wider view of things
2008-08-14 19:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a move back up to last years highs would still be within the confines of a potential larger trading range
2008-08-14 19:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something in which we've talked about for many months now as one option
2008-08-14 19:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, we wait and see
2008-08-14 19:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of a situation with the NDX data
2008-08-14 19:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the NDX breadth MCSUM is leading the way higher...meaning that it's closer to the zero line than the broader NASDAQ
2008-08-14 19:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is pulling up the broad market with it, it would seem
2008-08-14 19:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the beauty here being the texture of the advance of the NDX breadth MCO
2008-08-14 19:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what we we're talking about last June
2008-08-14 19:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms
2008-08-14 19:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and taking it's own sweet time in doing so
2008-08-14 19:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this shows us the continuity of conviction which is first and foremost to just about every intermediate term advance
2008-08-14 19:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without this kind of support, you will have air pockets to contend with
2008-08-14 19:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and each pocket gets deeper in scope to the point of reversal
2008-08-14 19:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, right now, it's going to take quite a bit of effort to break this current trend of money flow
2008-08-14 19:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of course, anything can sidetrack this same train
2008-08-14 19:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the bottom line here is that we have [b]constructive[/u] behavior
2008-08-14 19:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what you want to see in order to break the back of the (bear) default
2008-08-14 19:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or at least, bend it to a point in which you could eventually achieve "escape velocity"
2008-08-14 19:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a platform...a foundation...from which to build on
2008-08-14 19:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms remain on the SPX breadth MCO
2008-08-14 19:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the components here are acting "technically" well in and around the zero line
2008-08-14 19:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX breadth MCO shows a small clink in the armor with it's lower low this week
2008-08-14 19:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should remain on guard to a possible lack of conviction there
2008-08-14 19:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still...no zero line test on the OEX breadth MCO as well
2008-08-14 19:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the bulls remain in control
2008-08-14 19:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the bulls would want to see though is a better advancing OEX breadth MCSUM structure here
2008-08-14 19:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it looks kind of winded
2008-08-14 19:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back a bit on what we've just discussed
2008-08-14 19:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is still quite a bit of work yet to do here
2008-08-14 19:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from previous MCSUM tops, to the controlling MCSUM declining tops line, to zero line penetrations
2008-08-14 19:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of this is needed to be kept in proper perspective as it would pertain to the intermediate term direction of market price
2008-08-14 19:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short term though, we continue to look strong...reactive to an "oversold" reaction
2008-08-14 20:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so as the MCSUM's continue to move higher, it's important to wait for these same hurdles to be challenged
2008-08-14 20:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as one by one of them are overcome, one can become more and more aggressive
2008-08-14 20:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...it's the defensive sectors
2008-08-14 20:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as more and more stocks turn (as reflected by the height of the MCSUM), more and more sectors will join the party as money rotates from those considered "over valued" to those that are perceived "under valued"
2008-08-14 20:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: slow and sure wins the race - this is not a sprint...it's a marathon
2008-08-14 20:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after moving below the zero line on Wednesday, the Dow breadth MCO is now back above zero
2008-08-14 20:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a good example of how we usually get plenty of time for a possible turn
2008-08-14 20:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zero line tests are important part of this methodology
2008-08-14 20:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you'll notice on the Dow breadth MCSUM that this same zero line MCO test is happening very close to the -250 level which has always been a probable hesitation point of this and all of the MCSUM's
2008-08-14 20:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so in all of the chaos, there is order - repetitive order
2008-08-14 20:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something that happens far too many times for it be considered mere coincidence
2008-08-14 20:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market breaths
2008-08-14 20:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it lives
2008-08-14 20:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it has heart (volume) and lungs (breadth)
2008-08-14 20:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the two are free of virus', it's able to do more
2008-08-14 20:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much of a virus, and we get corrections
2008-08-14 20:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shakeouts
2008-08-14 20:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bear markets
2008-08-14 20:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at us
2008-08-14 20:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're all born to die
2008-08-14 20:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the default being "bearish"
2008-08-14 20:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we take time to fight off this same default to keep our heart and lungs healthy
2008-08-14 20:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same thing with the market
2008-08-14 20:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCO moved higher today, and continues to support a "unsustainable" pattern of bottoms above bottoms
2008-08-14 20:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that the angle of ascent too acute to continue (with all things being equal)
2008-08-14 20:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so with this idea in mind, as long as this pattern remains, the trend is higher until proven otherwise
2008-08-14 20:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and even if this trend is broken, it will take some time to work off these same excesses
2008-08-14 20:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so knowing this, you don't rush into moving money in the other direction until enough time has past to work off these same excesses
2008-08-14 20:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like running
2008-08-14 20:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the further and faster you run, the more your breathing is labored
2008-08-14 20:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and even if you stop running, you continue to huff and puff (momentum)
2008-08-14 20:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where eventually you cool down enough to sit down...or even fall down
2008-08-14 20:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless your heart isn't there, and then you just keel over
2008-08-14 20:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why volume is important
2008-08-14 20:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all works together
2008-08-14 20:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the MID components, and a familiar pattern is seen in relation with the zero line
2008-08-14 20:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: test...retest...
2008-08-14 20:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: building blocks
2008-08-14 20:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like sticking you head above a plateau after climbing a hill and looking around to see if things look OK to continue
2008-08-14 20:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on to the SML
2008-08-14 20:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our main attention is with the SML breadth MCSUM
2008-08-14 20:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is now not only above its zero line, but has broken above strong previous resistance in the process
2008-08-14 20:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, the price pattern should have an easier time in moving above the June highs
2008-08-14 20:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as long as money is moving in at full throttle, much higher price projections should be seen before this current advance exhausts itself
2008-08-14 20:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so here you have another area for nibbling...
2008-08-14 20:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and unlike the June top, where the SML breadth MCO made a lower low below the +50 level, here you have higher highs, and they are being sustained...very healthy
2008-08-14 20:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the TM breadth MCO components
2008-08-14 20:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a snapback to or towards the zero line has minimally been achieved by the 10% index
2008-08-14 20:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's going to take the 5% component to move above zero before we'll see anything worth snorting about
2008-08-14 20:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the trend of money flow is now showing signs of verifying the likely event of an advancing price structure
2008-08-14 20:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still...we have work to do, but we continue to maintain constructive behavior
2008-08-14 20:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on to the volume McClellan data, and looking at the components of the CO volume NYSE MCO
2008-08-14 20:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here is the answer to the question of why the NYA is not showing much in the way of upside punch right now
2008-08-14 20:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as both components remain below their zero lines...with the 10% fractionally moving above it today
2008-08-14 20:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once we get both of the components above zero, there will then be enough "heart" to break down the overhead barriers
2008-08-14 20:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "suck it up and be a market!!"
2008-08-14 20:21:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: bottoms below bottoms on MCO too
2008-08-14 20:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes TM
2008-08-14 20:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although, we did see a bit more declining volume on a short term basis with the lower low in the MCO
2008-08-14 20:22:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room:
2008-08-14 20:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of it this way
2008-08-14 20:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone ever had a sports injury?
2008-08-14 20:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a sprained ankle?
2008-08-14 20:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wrist?
2008-08-14 20:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neck?
2008-08-14 20:23:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: have one now
2008-08-14 20:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-08-14 20:23:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: ankle
2008-08-14 20:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...in the beginning it hurts like the dickens
2008-08-14 20:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but slowly it begins to heal to the point you can once again put pressure on it
2008-08-14 20:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then you feel good enough to walk...or go about your daily routine
2008-08-14 20:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you try to do this too fast...what happens?
2008-08-14 20:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're likely to re injure yourself
2008-08-14 20:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you're back on your arse
2008-08-14 20:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same thing here
2008-08-14 20:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we don't want to market to get up too quickly
2008-08-14 20:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we want it to heal what ails it and make darn sure that there won't be a relapse (rally failure)
2008-08-14 20:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: slow and sure wins the race
2008-08-14 20:25:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: IC, market has sports injury....and right during Olympics....how untimely
2008-08-14 20:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...more like a virus
2008-08-14 20:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it was a nasty one as well
2008-08-14 20:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, this virus has spread to all of us
2008-08-14 20:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there isn't too many out there that hasn't been affected by the current sickness
2008-08-14 20:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the breathing is getting better
2008-08-14 20:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the heart is getting stronger
2008-08-14 20:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we just have to watch for anything that might slow down this healing process
2008-08-14 20:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, a good example of what we've been talking about
2008-08-14 20:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: compare the NYSE volume components to that of the NASDAQ volume components
2008-08-14 20:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: see any differences?
2008-08-14 20:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the obvious one is that both the NASDAQ components are above their zero line
2008-08-14 20:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this allows the price pattern to move in this same direction of conviction
2008-08-14 20:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why....the NYA has been lagging
2008-08-14 20:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money isn't quite ready to support these group of stocks
2008-08-14 20:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also notice that the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is just below its zero line
2008-08-14 20:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the closer we get to neutral, the easier it is for the price pattern to move in this same direction as the balance of power shifts
2008-08-14 20:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so there isn't anything to "worry" about as long as you realize why prices move in one direction or the other
2008-08-14 20:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what pushes the string
2008-08-14 20:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something interesting here
2008-08-14 20:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX volume MCSUM now has a reading of -139
2008-08-14 20:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the NASDAQ volume MCSUM has a reading of -96
2008-08-14 20:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would then suggest to us that the broader basket of stocks in the NASDAQ are receiving a little more positive money flow than just the top 100 stocks
2008-08-14 20:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also mean that it's probably a few that is pushing the rest when it comes to the make up of the NDX index itself
2008-08-14 20:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and probably those who have a great amount of weight in doing so
2008-08-14 20:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as opposed to the NASDAQ itself where more stocks are moving higher supporting the strength of the price pattern structure (percentage basis of the total)
2008-08-14 20:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who have a scanning tool might want to look into this for verification
2008-08-14 20:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like the NYSE volume MCSUM, the SPX volume MCSUM remains below the -500 level
2008-08-14 20:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard for price to move in this current direction of money flow until there is better balance (the zero line)
2008-08-14 20:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and produces...choppy, and sometimes volatile, behavior
2008-08-14 20:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the NDX volume MCO, it made a higher high today
2008-08-14 20:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and just like the breadth side, the MCO's here are showing continuing strength of direction
2008-08-14 20:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to short against this overwhelming tide
2008-08-14 20:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure, you will get a day, maybe two, of downside, but the trades will come with a great amount of effort
2008-08-14 20:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and...frustration
2008-08-14 20:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the Dow volume MCO
2008-08-14 20:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can see that although the breadth MCO moved below its zero line, the volume side didn't
2008-08-14 20:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this suggests that there wasn't too much selling on this last decline
2008-08-14 20:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which makes sense considering the position of many of the MCO's being in and around the +25 level
2008-08-14 20:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can see there's been good technical action with the MID volume McClellan's and its components
2008-08-14 20:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the SML volume data, that MCSUM is about to cross above its zero line...basically moving in sync with its breadth cousin
2008-08-14 20:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's where the money is to be made
2008-08-14 20:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, any follow through here would give us many technical breakouts, both internal and external
2008-08-14 20:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM volume MCSUM is leading breadth here
2008-08-14 20:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, one could say that the trend is up until proven otherwise
2008-08-14 20:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the caveat being, we still have some hurdles to overcome before we'll get a "clean bill of health"
2008-08-14 20:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who are short, should now be looking to exit
2008-08-14 20:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: further upside confirmations would soon be giving buy signals in just about every index
2008-08-14 20:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you're not sure...cash...or pick up some option insurance
2008-08-14 20:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's what it's there for
2008-08-14 20:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are neutral to firm
2008-08-14 20:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NDX STVO is "overbought" - the rest of firm
2008-08-14 20:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the Dow and OEX close to being neutral and looking for direction
2008-08-14 20:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are firm...no rush to be "overbought"
2008-08-14 20:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice, grinding action
2008-08-14 20:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you get a day or two of up
2008-08-14 20:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: get people thinking
2008-08-14 20:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pull the plug for a day or so to keep traders off balance
2008-08-14 20:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then move higher again with more attitude
2008-08-14 20:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: cat and mouse
2008-08-14 20:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .88
2008-08-14 20:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .99
2008-08-14 20:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a floor with holes in it, but not even close to "overbought"
2008-08-14 20:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN a .40
2008-08-14 20:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .83
2008-08-14 20:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remains strong
2008-08-14 20:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .54
2008-08-14 20:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .85
2008-08-14 20:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...
2008-08-14 20:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: based on the Open 10's, the area that has lots of room to advancement is with the NYSE stocks
2008-08-14 20:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is a little bit different than last Tuesday where the NASDAQ looked to be the area of firmness
2008-08-14 20:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: overall, we continue to "fill the tub"
2008-08-14 20:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-08-14 20:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (how were my analogies tonight?)
2008-08-14 20:51:59 [Message] doc -> Main Room: sorry I missed them--late for class
2008-08-14 20:51:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: could have used 6 or 7 more
2008-08-14 20:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-08-14 20:52:18 [Message] doc -> Main Room: any new thoughts on gold?
2008-08-14 20:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, you missed our talking about health issues
2008-08-14 20:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the thing with commodities
2008-08-14 20:52:34 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Oh, anything I could help with?
2008-08-14 20:52:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Where is doc when you need him....
2008-08-14 20:52:39 [Message] locus -> Main Room: hmm gold spot at 790 better start to think about holding
2008-08-14 20:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they make spike tops, and rounded bottoms
2008-08-14 20:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you should be looking for some back and fill here for awhile - maybe a week to 10 days
2008-08-14 20:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope Doc...was trying to correlate market behavior and human health
2008-08-14 20:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you've heard this dissertation before
2008-08-14 20:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else
2008-08-14 20:54:40 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Also...any thoughts on XLE? It looks very oversold and getting divergent MCO while prices fall.
2008-08-14 20:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XLE?
2008-08-14 20:54:54 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes
2008-08-14 20:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, I wouldn't expect too much more than what we already reviewed
2008-08-14 20:55:12 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Next spike for oil might come with the next gulf hurricane
2008-08-14 20:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take time for the price pattern to firm and move counter trend
2008-08-14 20:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and gold should go higher if Russia invades Georgia
2008-08-14 20:55:41 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Tropical depression likely forming off the Lesser Antilles
2008-08-14 20:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this hurricane stuff is so ridiculous
2008-08-14 20:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: great example on how we thrive on things that go bad
2008-08-14 20:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Katrina
2008-08-14 20:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1929
2008-08-14 20:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another one is coming...watch out!
2008-08-14 20:57:12 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I think it feeds on the emotional side of humans
2008-08-14 20:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not that I'm taking away the fear of what a hurricane brings
2008-08-14 20:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure it does Doc...and so does the media
2008-08-14 20:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they thrive on this stuff
2008-08-14 20:57:40 [Message] doc -> Main Room: no different then rubber necking
2008-08-14 20:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: absolutely
2008-08-14 20:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it happens, it will be a near term event
2008-08-14 20:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if it doesn't...you get your clock rung
2008-08-14 20:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until we can control the weather, enjoy it
2008-08-14 20:58:26 [Message] doc -> Main Room: and your stops run
2008-08-14 20:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup
2008-08-14 20:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the big news event each year is how many hurricanes were going to get!
2008-08-14 20:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who cares?
2008-08-14 20:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you mean to tell me that everyone on the gulf coast isn't prepared for one?
2008-08-14 20:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here in CA., we're always prepared for the likelihood of an earthquake
2008-08-14 20:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might happen, it might not
2008-08-14 21:00:00 [Message] doc -> Main Room: well Houston sure showed it was ill prepared when Rita was 2 days out
2008-08-14 21:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and believe me, "the big one" would do more damage than an cat 5
2008-08-14 21:00:22 [Message] doc -> Main Room: the city had NO contraflow highway plan in place
2008-08-14 21:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's a matter of government bureaucracy
2008-08-14 21:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the hospital?
2008-08-14 21:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: your home?
2008-08-14 21:00:55 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Med center paralyzed
2008-08-14 21:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: different story
2008-08-14 21:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, that's irresponsible
2008-08-14 21:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry to hear that
2008-08-14 21:01:11 [Message] doc -> Main Room: one of the hospitals didn't have the back up generator in the basement
2008-08-14 21:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, what happened to drills?
2008-08-14 21:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes we become so complacent
2008-08-14 21:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then we over react
2008-08-14 21:01:52 [Message] doc -> Main Room: backups were flooded out, no power, hospital had to be evacuated in the dark
2008-08-14 21:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then that fades
2008-08-14 21:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...I bet they're prepared now?
2008-08-14 21:02:39 [Message] gman -> Main Room: wasn't the generator problem more an issue with TS Allyson camping over and flooding us more than the Rita issue Doc?
2008-08-14 21:03:07 [Message] doc -> Main Room: gman, you are right
2008-08-14 21:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going to get going...I'll read the scripts tomorrow
2008-08-14 21:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2008-08-14 21:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat it up on Tuesday
2008-08-14 21:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-14 21:03:28 [Message] doc -> Main Room: good night
2008-08-14 21:03:44 [Message] gman -> Main Room: thanks again for a good discussion Fib



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