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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2014-07-31 15:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-07-31 15:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-07-31 16:00:45 [Message] DanD64 -> Chat: A little lighter in the wallet but not too bad.
2014-07-31 16:01:31 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: It happens :)
2014-07-31 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it would seem we got our shake out
2014-07-31 16:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tip off was the rally failure yesterday morning
2014-07-31 16:02:06 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: In one day you think?
2014-07-31 16:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...
2014-07-31 16:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had discrepancies between the large caps and the secondaries
2014-07-31 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw breakdowns in the SPX and OEX where the bulls needed to step up, with their friends, to hold things intact
2014-07-31 16:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they tried that yesterday morning
2014-07-31 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom fell out within the first hour
2014-07-31 16:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over on the TW Facebook page
2014-07-31 16:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I posted/tweeted about how money was leaving the market at an accelerated rate right after another rally attempt fizzled
2014-07-31 16:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we tend to see
2014-07-31 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moves about a day or so in advance of price
2014-07-31 16:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last night
2014-07-31 16:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until Europe opened
2014-07-31 16:04:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: A question-how did that trin stay so low most of the day?
2014-07-31 16:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: futures were only down by 10 Dow points...3 SPX points
2014-07-31 16:04:28 [Message] DanD64 -> Chat: So did it start moving back today?
2014-07-31 16:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check Dan...but going into the last hour, the angle of descent was still very abrupt
2014-07-31 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would indicate that it's going to take about 2 or 3 days to stabilize
2014-07-31 16:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-07-31 16:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...no sign as yet of stability, so we should have a weak opening on Friday
2014-07-31 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the brighter side
2014-07-31 16:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE came in at 69 today
2014-07-31 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is probably due for a reflex rally based on that alone
2014-07-31 16:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to Lew
2014-07-31 16:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did the TRIN stay so low?
2014-07-31 16:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Down volume and breadth were probably overwhelmingly negative
2014-07-31 16:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2014-07-31 16:06:45 [Message] DanD64 -> Chat: Thank you, so better prices to come probably next week though after the reflex rally?
2014-07-31 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 9:1 negative on NYSE Breadth
2014-07-31 16:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 9:1 negative on NYSE Volume
2014-07-31 16:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is sign of a capitulation
2014-07-31 16:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NOT necessarily a kick off
2014-07-31 16:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just what the doctor ordered
2014-07-31 16:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this will likely put all of the market back in sync
2014-07-31 16:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...more importantly
2014-07-31 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have solid flags
2014-07-31 16:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Dan
2014-07-31 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the usual and customary pattern after a technical breakdown is a simple snapback to the intermediate term EMA's (50 day period, for example) of the pattern structure
2014-07-31 16:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for example
2014-07-31 16:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please forgive me...this is the first I'm looking at the data and so I'm just seeing what happened today
2014-07-31 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 50 day EMA on the cash SPX is around 1949
2014-07-31 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, coincidentally, is also just below the area of where our trading range bottom which was figured on the initial break below the zero line in the MCO
2014-07-31 16:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember also
2014-07-31 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that price could not move below this same level UNLESS we saw lower MCO lows
2014-07-31 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, I figure with 9:1 negative breadth, we got today :)
2014-07-31 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these internal pattern support areas are always very important
2014-07-31 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is....
2014-07-31 16:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break of the +500 level that we saw in the SPX and OEX breadth MCSUM's on Tuesday
2014-07-31 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for once you move back below this area of important support
2014-07-31 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can slip and fall like we saw today without too much in the way of provocation
2014-07-31 16:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2014-07-31 16:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably better for me to give more information once we review the charts...I'm kinda of taking liberties here where maybe none are needed :)
2014-07-31 16:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other questions or comments before we get started??
2014-07-31 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure
2014-07-31 16:14:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, I've never seen the TRIN in the 30's on that kind of drop-good to know why
2014-07-31 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to love days like this...gets you all excited...especially after having such a lack of action as we've had
2014-07-31 16:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the 30's?
2014-07-31 16:15:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: during most of the drop it was in the 30's, then 40-41
2014-07-31 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...I see it now
2014-07-31 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...again
2014-07-31 16:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN measures any imbalances between breadth and volume
2014-07-31 16:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if breadth is stable, and volume shows a imbalance
2014-07-31 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where you get your high numbers
2014-07-31 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not today
2014-07-31 16:16:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah!
2014-07-31 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything got thrown out with the bath water it would seem
2014-07-31 16:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 9:1 negative days are rare
2014-07-31 16:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-07-31 16:16:29 [Message] DanD64 -> Chat: even bonds
2014-07-31 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the Zweig Breadth Indicator
2014-07-31 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .44
2014-07-31 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no trigger for a countdown as yet
2014-07-31 16:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need a reading below .40 to start the 10 day count
2014-07-31 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on that as well
2014-07-31 16:17:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right
2014-07-31 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...wait
2014-07-31 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check something
2014-07-31 16:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2014-07-31 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I stand corrected
2014-07-31 16:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using a 10 day SMA we had a .44 today
2014-07-31 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we follow the specific guideline from Marty in using an 10 day EMA
2014-07-31 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a reading today of .37
2014-07-31 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the clock is ticking
2014-07-31 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know
2014-07-31 16:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we want to see is this 10 day EMA move from below the .40 level to above the .62 level in 10 trading days
2014-07-31 16:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is accomplished
2014-07-31 16:20:34 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I have .437
2014-07-31 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history has shown that tremendous bull market rally's happen
2014-07-31 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be on a 10 day SMA, right?
2014-07-31 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: switch it to EMA
2014-07-31 16:21:20 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: No just the nyadv:nytot daily
2014-07-31 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-07-31 16:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you have chart a 10 day EMA of this data
2014-07-31 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look below the chart generated
2014-07-31 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the "Overlays" area you're able to change it to an EMA
2014-07-31 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the default is 20
2014-07-31 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you have to change that to 10
2014-07-31 16:22:59 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes, you are right, it's 10 sma
2014-07-31 16:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2014-07-31 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: switch it to 10 day EMA
2014-07-31 16:23:24 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: But it did spot the Feb signal?
2014-07-31 16:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-07-31 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will keep an eye on it
2014-07-31 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 10 days would put us at August 14th if we turn up tomorrow
2014-07-31 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which just so happens to be the day before August OPEX
2014-07-31 16:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see...
2014-07-31 16:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...enough of the pleasantries
2014-07-31 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get SC up and see what kind of damage we have to work with
2014-07-31 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after having back to back small point changes on Tuesday and Wednesday
2014-07-31 16:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued to move sharply lower today
2014-07-31 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now getting close to challenging its February lows with a reading of -88
2014-07-31 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're now technically "oversold"
2014-07-31 16:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a reflex rally will likely take place within the next two trading sessions
2014-07-31 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-07-31 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend is also challenging its February lows
2014-07-31 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unfortunately for the bulls
2014-07-31 16:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now a day away from possibly moving down and through its zero line
2014-07-31 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can have a very negative effect as it would when too many people try to leave a building that's on fire through a single revolving door
2014-07-31 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...as we have saw with the February lows in this MCO
2014-07-31 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market then rallied smartly and never looked back
2014-07-31 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be a significant low here
2014-07-31 16:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's way to early in our session to say that something like this could even happen this time around
2014-07-31 16:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's move on and get more information
2014-07-31 16:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO had a rougher time of it as it wasn't able to hold above the recent lows
2014-07-31 16:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a technical breakdown in money flow took place over the last two days
2014-07-31 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with these new lows
2014-07-31 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have new downside price targets to work with in the NYA
2014-07-31 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a move all the way back to the February lows is possible
2014-07-31 16:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though this target wouldn't have strong odds of being seen until we see a break of these February lows in the NYSE Composite MCSUM
2014-07-31 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes this horizontal support area rather critical in this context
2014-07-31 16:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern of the NYA
2014-07-31 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see what can happen when these same internal lows in the MCO are broken
2014-07-31 16:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in then allowing prices to also break below its previous downside target/trading range pattern
2014-07-31 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can, and in this case does so, with a violent breakaway gap to the downside
2014-07-31 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise
2014-07-31 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can also see how "third waves can be undeniable" when they take place
2014-07-31 16:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a simple 1 and 2 taking place before hand
2014-07-31 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hindsight is always 20/20
2014-07-31 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did have a warning that this might happen on Tuesday with the large cap breaks in the MCO's
2014-07-31 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the broader based NYA was hanging in there...up until Wednesday afternoon
2014-07-31 16:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-07-31 16:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to hold up pretty well in the face of the primaries falling apart
2014-07-31 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though now we do have a top beneath a top in the MCO
2014-07-31 16:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to see how things go once the masses come home tonight and find out what kind of day it was today
2014-07-31 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2014-07-31 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's likely to be follow through selling at the open
2014-07-31 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to wait for a couple of hours to see if we start to stabilize or not
2014-07-31 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO did, however, move to a lower low
2014-07-31 16:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds of the NASDAQ holding up here are not very high
2014-07-31 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note
2014-07-31 16:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the 10% Trend of the NDX breadth MCO also moved down and through its zero line today
2014-07-31 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there was nothing pointing to this being some sort of slip and fall as it was earlier in the month
2014-07-31 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll also note
2014-07-31 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NDX breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +750 level today
2014-07-31 16:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here's another index that broke support and prices suffered because of this
2014-07-31 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...nice day for the bears...SPX down 2%
2014-07-31 16:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX breadth MCO is now deeply "oversold"
2014-07-31 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're setting a flag there
2014-07-31 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though
2014-07-31 16:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this process
2014-07-31 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also took out the important April lows in the SPX MCO
2014-07-31 16:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that opens the door for new downside targets
2014-07-31 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's looking like around 1825
2014-07-31 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now remember
2014-07-31 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I share this as I see it
2014-07-31 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and before the chat is over
2014-07-31 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll look at the volume side and see if these targets are actually able to be accomplished or not
2014-07-31 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the one thing we can take from today's breakdown
2014-07-31 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it's going to take a good month now to rebuild a new internal floor
2014-07-31 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't expect any kind of resumption in the uptrend until the beginning of September
2014-07-31 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-07-31 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have the momentum of the previous move still yet to see
2014-07-31 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should provide those long who are still looking for an exit to do so
2014-07-31 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...this smacks of a near term capitulation point
2014-07-31 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something of which we talked about on Tuesday as being something that would be healthy longer term to get the market back in sync
2014-07-31 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: little did we know it would happen this quickly
2014-07-31 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would had figured Friday into the beginning of next week
2014-07-31 16:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market got broad sided again by good economic news on Wednesday
2014-07-31 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GDP at 4%?
2014-07-31 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: come on!
2014-07-31 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I heard that I figured that we found another bottom at 2.45%
2014-07-31 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up we went
2014-07-31 16:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-07-31 16:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10 year note yield was up 3% yesterday
2014-07-31 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a huge move
2014-07-31 16:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but too fast
2014-07-31 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when that takes place
2014-07-31 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually blows off quickly
2014-07-31 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a moment and look at today's price bar
2014-07-31 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...
2014-07-31 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard reversal intraday
2014-07-31 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the 200 day EMA
2014-07-31 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would expect a bit more of a test of the 2.45% level again
2014-07-31 16:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if traders "run for safety" near term
2014-07-31 16:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...
2014-07-31 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern on the 10 year yield sure looks bearish (lower yields)
2014-07-31 16:52:14 [Message] DanD64 -> Chat: meaning bond prices up?
2014-07-31 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2014-07-31 16:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-07-31 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Bond CEF A/D line was at new highs just last week
2014-07-31 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this was a major change in the overall trend in yields
2014-07-31 16:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Bond A/D would had already topped out weeks ago
2014-07-31 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it didn't...though we did see a trendline break
2014-07-31 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is more of a panic move
2014-07-31 16:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I wouldn't be surprised that we get one more poke higher with tomorrow's jobs numbers
2014-07-31 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I have to tell you
2014-07-31 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a personal level
2014-07-31 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business is really crappy right now
2014-07-31 16:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually in the summer we're slow
2014-07-31 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are VERY slow right now
2014-07-31 16:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and checking around with my vendors and customers
2014-07-31 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone is VERY slow
2014-07-31 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our industry about 2/3 months ahead of the stock market
2014-07-31 16:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be starting to feel the effects of this slowdown that began here in the early part of June...we'll see
2014-07-31 16:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-07-31 16:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continued to move to lower lows
2014-07-31 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are only challenging the February lows
2014-07-31 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw the 5% Trend move below its zero line today
2014-07-31 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we do get the components agreeing with the MCO itself
2014-07-31 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is when price trends of a 4-6 week window can take place
2014-07-31 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the OEX breadth MCSUM
2014-07-31 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we will be breaking below horizontal support on Friday as well
2014-07-31 16:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the sell off may not be over just yet
2014-07-31 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and may not stabilize until sometime Monday afternoon with any pent up demand to see after a news filled weekend of negativity
2014-07-31 16:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-07-31 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that both the SPX and OEX breadth MCO's have left behind a small blip in their pattern structures
2014-07-31 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this point will now be used to determine when we have enough stabilization to break off today's thrust in prices to the downside
2014-07-31 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we move above this level
2014-07-31 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside pressure will continue
2014-07-31 16:59:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: small blip?
2014-07-31 16:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we move above it
2014-07-31 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have our "flag"
2014-07-31 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-07-31 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see how the market poped up yesterday when the buyers were trying to "belly up to the bar"?
2014-07-31 17:00:45 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-07-31 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that simple pop
2014-07-31 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is our "blip resistance" area
2014-07-31 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this was the point in which those who were "controlling" the direction of money suddenly saw their momentum exhaust itself
2014-07-31 17:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this caused a sudden shift in this same money flow in the opposite direction
2014-07-31 17:02:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks
2014-07-31 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like a vacuum being created that needed to be filled
2014-07-31 17:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it did so in a violently...leaving many "holding the bag"
2014-07-31 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO continues to dig deeper into "oversold" territory
2014-07-31 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now close to creating an important keystone flag
2014-07-31 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here that not only did the Dow breadth MCSUM break below its +500 level today
2014-07-31 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to add insult to injury
2014-07-31 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also broke below horizontal support as well
2014-07-31 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we were warned of what usually happens when something like this happens
2014-07-31 17:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always still a bit surprising when we see huge price declines because of it
2014-07-31 17:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...
2014-07-31 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it does reinforce why we look at these small nuances for they ARE important pieces of information so that we know how to handle any open positions during these trigger points
2014-07-31 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down and through the zero line today on the MID breadth MCSUM
2014-07-31 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2014-07-31 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really no wonder why we had such a huge sell off with all of these simultaneous technical breaks
2014-07-31 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breaking of zero lines
2014-07-31 17:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: horizontal support areas
2014-07-31 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower momentum lows in short term oscillators
2014-07-31 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we also say
2014-07-31 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that everything needs to work together for the market to accomplish a specific goal
2014-07-31 17:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today...we had everything working together...on the sell side
2014-07-31 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the opening downside gap leaving no doubt as to the markets intentions for the rest of the day
2014-07-31 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now back to the MID breadth MCO
2014-07-31 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we now have probable bull divergence in place
2014-07-31 17:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will not be triggered until this MCO breaks above the declining tops line between the early July and mid July spike highs
2014-07-31 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that line seems to intersect at around the -50 level
2014-07-31 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we don't have a lower MCO low here
2014-07-31 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have no downside targets to work with
2014-07-31 17:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the initial ones have already been met
2014-07-31 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here's an index that is screaming "wash out"
2014-07-31 17:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2014-07-31 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should hold this divergence on Friday
2014-07-31 17:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then see money moving back in to trigger this divergence by Tuesday of next week
2014-07-31 17:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...on the bearish side
2014-07-31 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take ruler to monitor
2014-07-31 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that today's price action did break below the rising bottoms line on the price chart
2014-07-31 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while we might see a divergence trigger near term
2014-07-31 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to look for the price action itself to move back above this same rising bottoms line to help in affirming this technical reversal point
2014-07-31 17:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even better
2014-07-31 17:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a hammer stick on Friday would be a quite important clue in this whole context as well
2014-07-31 17:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the same thing going for the SML as well
2014-07-31 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we have the SML breadth MCSUM to challenge the lows of May as well
2014-07-31 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this is, in fact, a capitulation point for the market overall
2014-07-31 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these divergences in the MID and SML will be an important piece of information in putting this puzzle together
2014-07-31 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2014-07-31 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we move to lower lows quickly
2014-07-31 17:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than we'll see the entire market back in sync
2014-07-31 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should then provide us with a nice clean road map to work with during the month of August
2014-07-31 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still....
2014-07-31 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's exhaustion in the first hour is a worry
2014-07-31 17:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow being up 70 odd points in the first 15 minutes
2014-07-31 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then losing all of it in the next 15
2014-07-31 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is NOT a sign of strength moving forward
2014-07-31 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-07-31 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a good part of August to get things straightened out again
2014-07-31 17:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe, by that time
2014-07-31 17:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll also have some clarity of what's going on overseas and how long it might affect global economics
2014-07-31 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, sorry to say, we're all joined at the hips these days
2014-07-31 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is what it is :)
2014-07-31 17:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a lower low in the TM breadth MCO today
2014-07-31 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just this alone doesn't provide too much confidence in that the MID and SML are going to hold
2014-07-31 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this divergence gets blown out
2014-07-31 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better sooner than later...better to fix the wound instead of having it fester and become a bigger problem later on
2014-07-31 17:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-07-31 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a great day for the bears
2014-07-31 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they have finally found a way to break the back of the bulls and take solid control of the action on a short term trending basis
2014-07-31 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of today's downside thrusts
2014-07-31 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now generated new downside price targets
2014-07-31 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the time it will take to provide enough of a foundational bottom has now been extended from the 1st week of August to sometime in the early part of September
2014-07-31 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger question now for traders is whether this is a breakaway gap to the downside to finish off July's correctional process
2014-07-31 17:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or is a more important price top in place that would take more of an intermediate time frame to complete
2014-07-31 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go to the volume McClellan's first, and then we'll leave the rest our time to the sectors
2014-07-31 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well have great confirmation moves by the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2014-07-31 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at least we remain in sync there
2014-07-31 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw how in sync they have been with both breadth and volume seeing 9:1 negative plurality today
2014-07-31 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2014-07-31 17:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that both should see a spike low concurrently
2014-07-31 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though both will tend to not exactly work their way back to or towards their zero line in the same fashion
2014-07-31 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have bullish divergence in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2014-07-31 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again
2014-07-31 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth and volume are echoing each other
2014-07-31 17:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's nothing sloppy going on which makes trading that much easier due to a lack of potential chop
2014-07-31 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO also moved to lower lows today
2014-07-31 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll look for our 3850 price target now
2014-07-31 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where only a break of the late March lows will provide further downside price targets
2014-07-31 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this index of stocks will probably buck any kind of downside action on a short term basis
2014-07-31 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...
2014-07-31 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really fortunate for the bulls that the volume MCSUM's are as high as they are right now
2014-07-31 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise something like today, with all of the breaks in support in the breadth data, would had caused something like we saw back in 2008
2014-07-31 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also for this reason (the high volume MCSUM's)
2014-07-31 17:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any further downside action is going to reflex hard and fast once the current downside pressure has exhausted
2014-07-31 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like how a basketball will surge to above the water line in the deep end of a swimming pool once you've released it
2014-07-31 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...
2014-07-31 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really nice wash out today
2014-07-31 17:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is getting exciting
2014-07-31 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO ended up today at a -123
2014-07-31 17:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this helps in setting a price floor
2014-07-31 17:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe 16,400?
2014-07-31 17:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2014-07-31 17:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we've talked about before
2014-07-31 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow volume MCO having been above its zero line for such a long period of time
2014-07-31 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this was going to happen to help keep it back below the zero line to provide longer term balance
2014-07-31 17:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the 5% Trend in the Dow volume MCO is at its zero line
2014-07-31 17:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce there is expected near term
2014-07-31 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be a good spot to play a reflex
2014-07-31 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in this case
2014-07-31 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a "hit and run" trade
2014-07-31 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the path of least resistance is now lower...at least for the next couple of weeks
2014-07-31 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note how there is still very little selling in the MID by way of the pattern we see in the MID volume MCO
2014-07-31 17:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if there's any sympathy selling tomorrow there
2014-07-31 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the SML
2014-07-31 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though there the SML volume MCO is moving in sync with its breadth cousin
2014-07-31 17:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's a nice surprise
2014-07-31 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM volume MCO did not join TM breadth MCO in making a lower low today
2014-07-31 17:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this helps to increase the odds that we might have divergent lows in the MID and SML in place now
2014-07-31 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as selling was not as widespread as one would believe by looking at the surface
2014-07-31 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-07-31 17:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of technical damage is in place
2014-07-31 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are some areas that aren't following the lead of the large caps
2014-07-31 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this continues tomorrow
2014-07-31 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could have seen an important internal low in all of the market today
2014-07-31 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2014-07-31 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll have a complete reset, and we'll take it day by day and make the market prove itself as its intentions
2014-07-31 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2014-07-31 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go back to the sector McClellan's
2014-07-31 17:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the possibility of bull divergence in place in the XLY breadth MCO
2014-07-31 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what looks like a crash in the XLP price chart
2014-07-31 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a measuring gap included
2014-07-31 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target off the gap is...
2014-07-31 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: around $42
2014-07-31 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out how this gap was created as the XLP breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today
2014-07-31 17:44:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: 42 comes from the price chart, right?
2014-07-31 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gives us a great example of what could happen when too many traders try to go through a revolving door all at the same time
2014-07-31 17:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it comes from the measuring gap
2014-07-31 17:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in gap theory
2014-07-31 17:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the measuring gap is the center point of a price move
2014-07-31 17:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also known as the center point of an Elliott third wave
2014-07-31 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to get the price forecast
2014-07-31 17:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you measure the difference from (in this case) from the top of the pattern to this gaps mid point
2014-07-31 17:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then take that and extend the measurement from the gap mid point to the downside
2014-07-31 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-07-31 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will likely happen here
2014-07-31 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that by Monday at the latest
2014-07-31 17:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to see a volatile reflex rally off the eventual price bottom
2014-07-31 17:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will not fill the gap, but close in doing so
2014-07-31 17:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately
2014-07-31 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not a lot of percentage price move to really play this
2014-07-31 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you're working with 10,000 shares at a time
2014-07-31 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's pretty reliable
2014-07-31 17:48:14 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK GOOD STUFF good to know thanks
2014-07-31 17:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that with a -155 reading in the XLP breadth MCO
2014-07-31 17:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where ever this reaction price low has its beginning
2014-07-31 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also be a good point to buy at "wholesale" pricing
2014-07-31 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley have thrown in the towel
2014-07-31 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember how we saw some weakness in the defensive issues last week?
2014-07-31 17:50:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat:   Yes     Is -155 reading same for all charts?
2014-07-31 17:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as an important low?
2014-07-31 17:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-07-31 17:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get this "oversold"
2014-07-31 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a sign of further weakness
2014-07-31 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it instructs us that anyone and anybody who wanted to sell..has done so
2014-07-31 17:51:29 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: where all aunt M and Uncle C thrown in the towel
2014-07-31 17:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that specialists now have too much inventory
2014-07-31 17:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will now raise prices in order to sell off this same inventory
2014-07-31 17:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows now in the XLE breadth MCO
2014-07-31 17:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was enough for prices to gap below the trading range noted on the chart
2014-07-31 17:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here...we still have a downside target of $95
2014-07-31 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not too surprising
2014-07-31 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that we pierced below the +750 level today on the XLE breadth MCSUM
2014-07-31 17:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things look as we approach the +500 level
2014-07-31 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO also broke its horizontal support today
2014-07-31 17:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we've seen in other indices
2014-07-31 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now opens the door for the price structure to also break to the downside as well
2014-07-31 17:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the next stop there is $21.75
2014-07-31 17:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not too much further...and nothing really to act on
2014-07-31 17:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO continues to hold up nicely
2014-07-31 17:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of all the negative news on the ACA front
2014-07-31 17:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last weeks weakness in the XLI breadth MCO came home to roost today
2014-07-31 17:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we broke below the May lows in the XLI breadth MCSUM
2014-07-31 17:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this basket of stocks is a proxy for the Dow Industrials and Transports...down they went too
2014-07-31 17:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB price index is now playing catch up to the XLB internals
2014-07-31 17:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a measured move back to the $47 level can be expected
2014-07-31 17:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how gold did
2014-07-31 17:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not good
2014-07-31 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one has to make a decision on the yellow metal here
2014-07-31 17:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2014-07-31 17:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the PM A/D lines have been leading lower
2014-07-31 17:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect at least a challenge of the $1240 level in spot gold
2014-07-31 17:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally though
2014-07-31 18:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the deeper we go with the internals not confirming from this juncture
2014-07-31 18:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better our expected tradable low come August
2014-07-31 18:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll keep a solid focus on this in the weekend breadth updates over the next couple of weeks
2014-07-31 18:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you have a profit, and you're only intermediate term minded, taking some off the table here may not be a bad idea
2014-07-31 18:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless
2014-07-31 18:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you accumulated back below $1200
2014-07-31 18:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2014-07-31 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do move to lower lows in the PM A/D data
2014-07-31 18:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it's probably not going to be until December for the next opportunity for a tradable low
2014-07-31 18:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing to watch and listen for
2014-07-31 18:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is how quickly the gold bulls throw in the towel here
2014-07-31 18:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they hang on when we're at $1240
2014-07-31 18:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we might have to go back all the way down to the $1158 level to shake that tree a little harder
2014-07-31 18:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day at a time
2014-07-31 18:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the PM's continue to look weak here short term
2014-07-31 18:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...
2014-07-31 18:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver is holding up better than expected
2014-07-31 18:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a fallout there will suggest that the "poor man" has thrown in the towel there
2014-07-31 18:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the sectors
2014-07-31 18:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...our upside price targets were met on the XLK last week
2014-07-31 18:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the XLK breadth MCO moved to lower lows today
2014-07-31 18:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: out of sympathy more so than being that of leading
2014-07-31 18:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the 10% Trend of the XLK breadth MCO is now at its zero line
2014-07-31 18:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a technical bounce there as soon as Friday
2014-07-31 18:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but by far
2014-07-31 18:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this remains the strongest sector that we follow
2014-07-31 18:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would kind of be out of the norm that if we are seeing a major top that the technology sector is lagging and not leading to the downside
2014-07-31 18:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the strong rise in rates really hit the XLU hard
2014-07-31 18:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have the ingredients in place where a right shoulder of a heads and shoulder top might be tracing out
2014-07-31 18:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the volume
2014-07-31 18:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would certainly be a "complex" top
2014-07-31 18:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the head elongating
2014-07-31 18:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll watch and see what happens there
2014-07-31 18:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially now that the XLU breadth MCSUM is about to move down and through the +500 level as soon as tomorrow
2014-07-31 18:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deeply "oversold" now on the XLU breadth MCO
2014-07-31 18:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a wash out there as well
2014-07-31 18:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: guess it all depends on your bias
2014-07-31 18:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at face value
2014-07-31 18:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need another day or so to know for sure
2014-07-31 18:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-07-31 18:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sell off today was widespread
2014-07-31 18:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLY, XLF and XLV remain somewhat buoyant
2014-07-31 18:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLI, XLP and XLU show a lot of weakness
2014-07-31 18:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inconsistencies are always hard to analyze
2014-07-31 18:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll be a bit more patient on that
2014-07-31 18:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume oscillators...
2014-07-31 18:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now climactic across the board
2014-07-31 18:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's look for a price low in the next two trading sessions
2014-07-31 18:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now "oversold"
2014-07-31 18:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a reflex rally should be seen in the next couple of days
2014-07-31 18:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll probably not see a final low in the bigger pattern structure now until the VTO's move to "oversold" (now around neutral)
2014-07-31 18:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would fit with our new expectation that the month of August is likely to be a time of base building
2014-07-31 18:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking further
2014-07-31 18:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of the sector CVI's are now screaming a price bottom
2014-07-31 18:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this isn't the time to take on new short positions
2014-07-31 18:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor is the time to dump longs either
2014-07-31 18:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience
2014-07-31 18:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .93
2014-07-31 18:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.02
2014-07-31 18:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.09
2014-07-31 18:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2014-07-31 18:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're going to need to see the NASDAQ Open 10 move back to "oversold" before we're likely to see a bottom
2014-07-31 18:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any opportunity to see a new advancing trend
2014-07-31 18:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .97
2014-07-31 18:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89
2014-07-31 18:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2014-07-31 18:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-07-31 18:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that we're going to need more of a correction both in time and price
2014-07-31 18:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we missed out of a higher market for the month of July just today
2014-07-31 18:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the July 4th topping window worked out quite well
2014-07-31 18:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of what course the market takes in completely clearing this indigestion period is not likely to be known until early next week
2014-07-31 18:20:46 [Message] DanD64 -> Chat: No hurries then to build IT or LT positions then?
2014-07-31 18:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2014-07-31 18:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-07-31 18:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would sit on your hands
2014-07-31 18:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're long
2014-07-31 18:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important to watch how your positions do on the upcoming reflex
2014-07-31 18:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they keep up or lead the broader market bounce
2014-07-31 18:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can use a sliding stop to lock in any profits
2014-07-31 18:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but make no mistake
2014-07-31 18:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was a back breaker for the bulls on a short term trending basis
2014-07-31 18:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like we said on Tuesday when we saw the large caps leading the breakdown
2014-07-31 18:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to respect this for what it may imply
2014-07-31 18:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today...
2014-07-31 18:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was...
2014-07-31 18:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a "proven otherwise" day
2014-07-31 18:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now that we have that out of the way
2014-07-31 18:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least we know what we're working with
2014-07-31 18:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS
2014-07-31 18:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-07-31 18:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing you must not do here is panic
2014-07-31 18:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or get emotionally charged
2014-07-31 18:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this will cloud your technical judgement
2014-07-31 18:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2014-07-31 18:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only one day
2014-07-31 18:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one day does not make a trend
2014-07-31 18:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could later on
2014-07-31 18:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it takes time for these kind of things to happen
2014-07-31 18:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2014-07-31 18:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears are starting to get cocky
2014-07-31 18:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you know that much of the work is probably done
2014-07-31 18:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's exactly what the "doctor ordered"
2014-07-31 18:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +25
2014-07-31 18:26:31 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Wow!
2014-07-31 18:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a +20 reading would be "go to cash"
2014-07-31 18:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2014-07-31 18:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be higher on Friday with a reflex rally
2014-07-31 18:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's no rush here
2014-07-31 18:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the one thing we must remember is that every single time that we've had sell offs like this over the last 5 years
2014-07-31 18:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have led to some important buy points in the larger sequence
2014-07-31 18:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2014-07-31 18:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have 3 fan formation lines to work with here
2014-07-31 18:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will take probably a 6 months to a year to break all three
2014-07-31 18:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's not also forget
2014-07-31 18:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the higher we go
2014-07-31 18:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the shake outs
2014-07-31 18:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what were 2% moves at SPX 1500
2014-07-31 18:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that much different at SPX 1900
2014-07-31 18:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-07-31 18:29:32 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Nope
2014-07-31 18:29:41 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks...great chat
2014-07-31 18:29:48 [Message] DanD64 -> Chat: Thank you.
2014-07-31 18:29:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Ditto
2014-07-31 18:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid
2014-07-31 18:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm actually excited how quickly we've moved to being "oversold" here
2014-07-31 18:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: generally speaking
2014-07-31 18:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in bear markets
2014-07-31 18:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually takes a lot of time to move to "oversold"
2014-07-31 18:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the majority continues to hang on to the previous trend and thinking large declines like this one present another buying op
2014-07-31 18:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the help of what's going on overseas
2014-07-31 18:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less at our borders
2014-07-31 18:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just accelerates the process
2014-07-31 18:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2014-07-31 18:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have yet to see the sellers show follow through on these 1 or 2 day shake outs
2014-07-31 18:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if this time it's different or not
2014-07-31 18:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2014-07-31 18:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-07-31 18:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-07-31 18:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-07-31 18:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-07-31 18:32:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Will do good night

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