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Posts: 5,161
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-07-23 16:00:14 fib1618: good day
2015-07-23 16:00:18 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-07-23 16:00:23 rite01 G952: And to you
2015-07-23 16:00:33 fib1618: did you get stopped out?
2015-07-23 16:00:51 rite01 G952: yes in the first hour I think it was
2015-07-23 16:00:55 fib1618: [frown]
2015-07-23 16:01:09 rite01 G952: That's OK ..
2015-07-23 16:01:10 fib1618: toughy
2015-07-23 16:01:14 fib1618: you had a profit
2015-07-23 16:01:20 fib1618: and the market was sagging
2015-07-23 16:01:37 rite01 G952: I'm just glad you mentioned AMZN in the first place
2015-07-23 16:01:57 fib1618: it really is an amazing *growth* company
2015-07-23 16:02:24 rite01 G952: Yes and There will be more chances to come
2015-07-23 16:02:56 rite01 G952: What does this gap mean?
2015-07-23 16:03:38 rite01 G952: I bet stocks gaps are different than indexes
2015-07-23 16:03:49 fib1618: the theory is consistent between both
2015-07-23 16:04:22 rite01 G952: I guess only thing to go with is the 19 and 39 EMA
2015-07-23 16:05:08 fib1618: OK...any other questions or comments before we get started??
2015-07-23 16:05:19 rite01 G952: not here
2015-07-23 16:05:56 fib1618: I don't think I'm going to like what we see tonight
2015-07-23 16:06:03 fib1618: need one more moment
2015-07-23 16:07:13 fib1618: before we get going
2015-07-23 16:07:32 fib1618: please note that this will be the last chat session until Tuesday August 4th
2015-07-23 16:07:52 fib1618: but do feel free to use the room in my absence for continued discussions in my absence
2015-07-23 16:08:08 rite01 G952: Thanks
2015-07-23 16:08:11 fib1618: OK...with that
2015-07-23 16:08:25 fib1618: let's get the charts up and see what kind of damage we did today
2015-07-23 16:09:07 fib1618: after attempting to rally at the beginning of the day
2015-07-23 16:09:17 fib1618: the market reversed around noon time
2015-07-23 16:09:21 fib1618: and closed sharply lower
2015-07-23 16:09:29 fib1618: going against our mid range close
2015-07-23 16:09:51 fib1618: and the expectation of seeing a full snapback up to the NYSE CO breadth MCO zero line
2015-07-23 16:10:28 fib1618: we also left behind "blip resistance" in this effort
2015-07-23 16:10:50 fib1618: now it gets interesting
2015-07-23 16:11:47 fib1618: on whether this is part of our construction in providing bullish divergence with the lows of 7/10
2015-07-23 16:12:04 fib1618: or something different where a change of plans is warranted
2015-07-23 16:14:55 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-07-23 16:15:06 fib1618: and here we see that we had good gap expansion to the downside today
2015-07-23 16:15:12 fib1618: showing a pick up in selling
2015-07-23 16:15:50 fib1618: as we found resistance just above the -250 level
2015-07-23 16:16:09 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-07-23 16:16:49 fib1618: and here we see a continuation of this week's weakness
2015-07-23 16:17:04 fib1618: as we finished the day with a -25 reading
2015-07-23 16:17:11 fib1618: now the question is...
2015-07-23 16:17:26 fib1618: after having two unsuccessful bounces over the last 2 days
2015-07-23 16:17:54 fib1618: will this area of natural support provide the bounce we've been looking for since Tuesday?
2015-07-23 16:18:09 fib1618: or will we break this area...and with it...the lows of earlier this month?
2015-07-23 16:18:58 fib1618: another problem that has come up now with the lack of a technical bounce
2015-07-23 16:19:28 fib1618: is that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now rolling over to the downside after finding resistance at the -200 level
2015-07-23 16:19:54 fib1618: which is just below the highs seen in the middle of June
2015-07-23 16:20:23 fib1618: for the bulls here
2015-07-23 16:21:01 fib1618: we still have the technical expectation of a snapback to both the Composite MCO zero line and the trendline that was broken with yesterday's trading
2015-07-23 16:21:17 fib1618: so the -25 level would make for a good platform to do this
2015-07-23 16:21:43 fib1618: another concern is that we are moving into the slowest part of the year trading wise
2015-07-23 16:22:26 fib1618: and open positions may be settled before many go on summer vacation
2015-07-23 16:22:51 fib1618: this lack of a bounce though is technically worrisome
2015-07-23 16:22:59 fib1618: let's see how far this reaches
2015-07-23 16:23:34 fib1618: lower lows as well in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-07-23 16:24:00 fib1618: and if we take ruler to monitor of the 21 day close up chart of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-07-23 16:24:39 fib1618: we see that the pattern was indeed able to close the gap resistance zone that was created earlier this month
2015-07-23 16:25:13 fib1618: but then we find strong resistance there and have seeing additional selling since that time
2015-07-23 16:25:29 fib1618: doesn't smack of a market that would have firm undertones to it, does it?
2015-07-23 16:26:39 fib1618: so right there this is something being different enough to where we should watch things very closely
2015-07-23 16:27:16 fib1618: the NDX continues to hang in there in spite of the recent weakness
2015-07-23 16:27:54 fib1618: and now we're only 51 data points away from the NDX breadth MCSUM reaching its zero line
2015-07-23 16:28:16 fib1618: with what looks like everything else starting to roll over here
2015-07-23 16:28:41 fib1618: any further weakness over the next couple of days and the NDX MCSUM will have no choice but to join in
2015-07-23 16:29:24 fib1618: looks like the NDX breadth MCSUM closed just below its rising bottoms line today
2015-07-23 16:30:02 fib1618: and this may be a more important break given the downside follow through we see in the NYSE Composite MCO today
2015-07-23 16:31:17 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-07-23 16:31:25 fib1618: and it too moved down and through its zero line today
2015-07-23 16:31:41 fib1618: and this puts a cap on the upside progress of the SPX breadth MCSUM right at its zero line
2015-07-23 16:32:16 fib1618: here too we are beginning to see the pattern rolling over at this same natural area of resistance between buyers and sellers
2015-07-23 16:32:30 fib1618: and from where one side will eventually take control
2015-07-23 16:33:00 fib1618: same thing with the OEX breadth MCO and OEX breadth MCSUM
2015-07-23 16:33:42 fib1618: and you can add the Dow data as well
2015-07-23 16:34:03 fib1618: the bulls really need to step up here and they're going to get their bell rung
2015-07-23 16:34:54 fib1618: outside range day on the MID
2015-07-23 16:35:00 fib1618: so we should see a lower close on Friday
2015-07-23 16:35:33 fib1618: boy...was there any news at noon time caused the reversal?
2015-07-23 16:36:12 rite01 G952: sorry I don't watch it that much anymore
2015-07-23 16:36:33 fib1618: looks like something happened at exactly 11:15 Eastern
2015-07-23 16:36:43 fib1618: maybe the FED minutes?
2015-07-23 16:36:46 fib1618: don't know
2015-07-23 16:36:52 fib1618: could be a sell program
2015-07-23 16:36:59 fib1618: but the damage was far reaching
2015-07-23 16:37:50 fib1618: yea...right at 11:15
2015-07-23 16:37:56 fib1618: very strange
2015-07-23 16:39:01 fib1618: can't find anything
2015-07-23 16:39:03 fib1618: moving on
2015-07-23 16:39:36 fib1618: and we see that after snapping back toward the zero line on Wednesday
2015-07-23 16:39:38 rite01 G952: me either
2015-07-23 16:39:40 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved to lower lows today
2015-07-23 16:40:22 fib1618: and this push lower moved the MID breadth MCSUM back below its zero line
2015-07-23 16:41:03 fib1618: so we have another index MCSUM rolling over to the downside after a zero line snapback
2015-07-23 16:42:04 fib1618: so any further follow through near term would turn this into a highly bearish event
2015-07-23 16:42:17 fib1618: and the market would begin to trend to the downside
2015-07-23 16:42:38 rite01 G952: I found this just now on the net regarding 12:15 today
2015-07-23 16:42:46 fib1618: could be that we had one last bullish stampede last week
2015-07-23 16:42:52 fib1618: go
2015-07-23 16:42:59 rite01 G952: July 23, 2015: Markets opened mixed on Thursday following a report that new claims for unemployment benefits ... What is interesting is that there seems to be a flush-out happening here, . ... Posted: July 23, 2015 at 12:15 pm
2015-07-23 16:43:29 fib1618: well...looking at the 5 minute chart
2015-07-23 16:44:12 fib1618: we see that the breakdown occurred an hour earlier
2015-07-23 16:44:22 fib1618: as the Dow lost 80 points over the next 45 minutes
2015-07-23 16:44:52 fib1618: could be sell programs...arbitrage
2015-07-23 16:45:10 fib1618: with hedge funds these days bigger than most governments
2015-07-23 16:45:16 fib1618: who really knows?
2015-07-23 16:45:21 fib1618: anyway
2015-07-23 16:45:24 fib1618: technically
2015-07-23 16:45:29 fib1618: this was not a good day for the longs
2015-07-23 16:45:36 fib1618: let's continue
2015-07-23 16:46:07 fib1618: and we note that the SML breadth MCO found natural resistance at the -25 level today and moved to a lower low
2015-07-23 16:46:24 fib1618: settling with a -50 reading
2015-07-23 16:46:32 fib1618: so another chance for the buyers to bounce here
2015-07-23 16:46:51 fib1618: but the lack of being able to snapback fully to the zero line is not a good omen
2015-07-23 16:47:10 fib1618: hmmm...I've been referring to negative omens now for the last couple of days
2015-07-23 16:47:34 fib1618: something is definitely weighing on the markets right now
2015-07-23 16:47:44 fib1618: oy
2015-07-23 16:47:57 fib1618: we broke MCSUM horizontal support today as well on the SML
2015-07-23 16:48:12 fib1618: this would suggest that the lows of earlier this month are also going to be broken
2015-07-23 16:48:14 fib1618: and with it
2015-07-23 16:48:32 fib1618: our trading range with the floor at 700
2015-07-23 16:49:27 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM is also showing failure at the -225 level
2015-07-23 16:49:49 fib1618: and we're now seeing gap expansion to the downside
2015-07-23 16:50:14 fib1618: let's see how the sector charts are doing
2015-07-23 16:50:36 fib1618: outside range day on the XLY
2015-07-23 16:50:56 fib1618: so we'll likely see a lower close on Friday
2015-07-23 16:51:14 fib1618: and a break of the XLY breadth MCO
2015-07-23 16:51:33 fib1618: looks like we're turning into a market of stocks as opposed to a stock market
2015-07-23 16:52:08 fib1618: we also broke trendline support in the XLY breadth MCO
2015-07-23 16:52:14 fib1618: what a difference a day makes
2015-07-23 16:52:27 rite01 G952: looks like several outside range days today
2015-07-23 16:52:52 fib1618: we also have a reversal exhaustion bar on the XLP today
2015-07-23 16:53:27 fib1618: with both the XLP breadth MCO and MCSUM now back to being balanced between buyers and sellers (at their zero lines)
2015-07-23 16:54:02 fib1618: I guess there is a reason why the BETS is getting weaker here
2015-07-23 16:54:25 fib1618: hard reversal on the XLF
2015-07-23 16:54:53 fib1618: as the XLF breadth MCSUM approaches the +500 level
2015-07-23 16:55:19 fib1618: the bulls sure wouldn't want to see a failure at these levels
2015-07-23 16:56:00 fib1618: moment of truth now for the XLI
2015-07-23 16:56:31 fib1618: the bulls really need to at attempt to hold things in check or we could see a waterfall decline of sorts
2015-07-23 16:57:04 fib1618: with any close below base support at $53.50 the trigger for such an event
2015-07-23 16:57:27 fib1618: oy...the XLB is breaking down hard now
2015-07-23 16:57:51 fib1618: looks like a reset in progress
2015-07-23 16:58:00 fib1618: and if one sector is resetting
2015-07-23 16:58:16 fib1618: it would be out of character if the rest of the market didn't follow suit
2015-07-23 16:58:40 fib1618: we tried to close the gap in the XLK today and failed that too
2015-07-23 16:59:16 fib1618: and here we're near natural overhead resistance at the -250 level on the XLK breadth MCSUM
2015-07-23 16:59:39 fib1618: and my spidey sense was right yesterday...the XLU did break down today
2015-07-23 16:59:56 fib1618: so...not a lot of good news out there for the bulls
2015-07-23 17:00:10 fib1618: the bears, however, are "this close" to really making things go their way...big time
2015-07-23 17:00:36 fib1618: let's see how the volume McClellan's are doing
2015-07-23 17:01:40 fib1618: volume is leading to the downside in both the MID and SML volume MCSUM's
2015-07-23 17:02:10 fib1618: and everything else is rolling over to the downside...the cruise ship is making an about face it would seem
2015-07-23 17:02:43 fib1618: the worse thing that could happen here is seeing low TRIN numbers...let's jump to that
2015-07-23 17:03:06 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.21
2015-07-23 17:03:21 fib1618: Open 10 now slamming lower with a 1.08 reading
2015-07-23 17:03:38 fib1618: well...we're getting some panic there..
2015-07-23 17:04:17 fib1618: a quick look at the 3 year NYA chart in this grouping
2015-07-23 17:04:28 fib1618: and you can now see a rolling top forming as well
2015-07-23 17:04:42 fib1618: keep in mind
2015-07-23 17:04:59 fib1618: that we usually see spike tops and rolling bottoms in commodities
2015-07-23 17:05:12 fib1618: but we see rolling tops and spike bottoms in equities
2015-07-23 17:05:35 fib1618: darn
2015-07-23 17:05:36 rite01 G952: did not know that
2015-07-23 17:05:43 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .59
2015-07-23 17:05:50 fib1618: not a good thing
2015-07-23 17:05:58 fib1618: oh boy
2015-07-23 17:06:04 fib1618: Open 10 now at .83
2015-07-23 17:06:13 fib1618: this is not looking good at all
2015-07-23 17:06:26 fib1618: TM TRIN at .74
2015-07-23 17:06:35 fib1618: dip buying galore
2015-07-23 17:06:47 fib1618: Open 10 at .89
2015-07-23 17:06:57 fib1618: back to the OBV's
2015-07-23 17:07:50 fib1618: STVO's are breaking hard to the downside now
2015-07-23 17:08:09 fib1618: so we could see some sort of rally once we move back to "oversold" levels
2015-07-23 17:08:24 fib1618: CVI's are not showing any climactic activity as yet
2015-07-23 17:08:31 fib1618: what's due on Friday?
2015-07-23 17:08:33 fib1618: let me check
2015-07-23 17:08:54 fib1618: the market is definitely sensing something now
2015-07-23 17:09:31 fib1618: new home sales
2015-07-23 17:09:43 fib1618: and PMI manufacturing
2015-07-23 17:10:15 fib1618: heard that jobless claims came in at the lowest levels in 3 or 4 decades today
2015-07-23 17:10:25 fib1618: too bad the majority have stopped looking
2015-07-23 17:10:26 rite01 G952: hey right
2015-07-23 17:10:41 fib1618: but claims were at 8:30
2015-07-23 17:10:50 fib1618: so that wouldn't account for 11:15
2015-07-23 17:10:55 fib1618: something happened
2015-07-23 17:11:10 fib1618: could be a hedge fund covering losses on gold
2015-07-23 17:11:20 fib1618: margin calls
2015-07-23 17:11:29 rite01 G952: Well at least the TICK saw it
2015-07-23 17:11:38 fib1618: yup
2015-07-23 17:11:56 fib1618: that's your intraday A/D line
2015-07-23 17:12:42 rite01 G952: yes not the 19 or 39
2015-07-23 17:13:10 fib1618: checking other moment
2015-07-23 17:14:51 fib1618: wow
2015-07-23 17:15:02 fib1618: just checked out Mark's Wall Street Sentiment
2015-07-23 17:15:08 fib1618: let me give you the link
2015-07-23 17:15:30 fib1618:
2015-07-23 17:15:48 fib1618: look at all the bears at the top
2015-07-23 17:16:03 fib1618: great call far
2015-07-23 17:16:29 fib1618: PC ratios are also getting frothy on the put side
2015-07-23 17:16:35 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-07-23 17:17:41 fib1618: drum roll please...
2015-07-23 17:17:50 fib1618: ready?
2015-07-23 17:17:58 fib1618: -60!
2015-07-23 17:18:15 fib1618: so....
2015-07-23 17:18:24 fib1618: taking all into consideration here
2015-07-23 17:18:44 fib1618: being that the market did not oblige us with a technical bounce for 2 days in a row
2015-07-23 17:18:53 fib1618: and that the BETS continues to dig lower
2015-07-23 17:19:48 fib1618: it would seem that we're probably going to break the back of the longer term uptrend here unless the buyers come in with both guns and now
2015-07-23 17:20:22 fib1618: the A/D and U/D lines continue to trace out bearish pattern sequences
2015-07-23 17:20:44 fib1618: finding resistance at their 10% and 5% Trends (19 and 39 day EMA's)
2015-07-23 17:21:05 fib1618: and there's nothing to indicate any kind of reversal of this current sequence
2015-07-23 17:21:07 fib1618: because of this
2015-07-23 17:21:28 fib1618: it is now time to go to full defensive mode toward equities
2015-07-23 17:22:22 fib1618: until we start to see several weeks of improvement
2015-07-23 17:22:29 fib1618: under bear market rules then
2015-07-23 17:23:00 fib1618: we should look for sharp short covering rallies that may look like that we have found support
2015-07-23 17:23:43 fib1618: but as long as we continue to see the kind of failed sequences in what should be back and fill sequences as we have seen over the last couple of days
2015-07-23 17:23:56 fib1618: the path of least resistance will remain lower for the time being
2015-07-23 17:24:03 fib1618: at this point
2015-07-23 17:24:08 fib1618: even if the buyers step in
2015-07-23 17:24:36 fib1618: it won't likely be enough to break the back of this new negativity in structure
2015-07-23 17:24:46 fib1618: it will take time for this to develop
2015-07-23 17:25:02 fib1618: just as it took time to move from bullish to bearish mode
2015-07-23 17:25:07 fib1618: let me check the TNX
2015-07-23 17:25:34 fib1618: continues to breakdown
2015-07-23 17:25:37 fib1618: but this time around
2015-07-23 17:26:04 fib1618: it could be because money would moving to a safe haven during times of stress
2015-07-23 17:26:09 fib1618: the metals are collapsing
2015-07-23 17:26:42 fib1618: and crude is back to $48.50
2015-07-23 17:27:04 fib1618: so...the market had its chance to succeed
2015-07-23 17:27:32 fib1618: and evidently there is something bigger out there that is making money move into safer least for the time being
2015-07-23 17:28:02 fib1618: what that might be we will only know in the fulness of time
2015-07-23 17:28:06 fib1618: but in the meantime
2015-07-23 17:28:10 fib1618: it is what it is
2015-07-23 17:28:18 fib1618: and we'll just go with the flow
2015-07-23 17:28:22 fib1618: anything else?
2015-07-23 17:28:26 rite01 G952: Planning on staying in Amazon?
2015-07-23 17:29:17 fib1618: I will probably close the position in the morning and stand aside while I'm on the road
2015-07-23 17:29:56 fib1618: and say "thank you very much"
2015-07-23 17:29:58 rite01 G952: what about the SAR or does that take up much time to track while your on the road..
2015-07-23 17:30:21 fib1618: I try to not to have open positions when I'm not able to see what's going on
2015-07-23 17:31:34 fib1618: anything else?
2015-07-23 17:32:06 rite01 G952: Have good weekend and following week.. may it be profitable
2015-07-23 17:32:12 fib1618: I hope so
2015-07-23 17:32:31 fib1618: hopefully the market won't change buyers minds next week [smile]
2015-07-23 17:32:45 rite01 G952: I think we will be ready
2015-07-23 17:32:53 fib1618: for now
2015-07-23 17:32:58 fib1618: just be defensive
2015-07-23 17:33:13 fib1618: and we'll just have to watch to see what happens
2015-07-23 17:33:25 fib1618: but these rounding tops in the MCSUM's are a real problem
2015-07-23 17:34:07 fib1618: it can lead to a "crash like" events once the MCSUM bottoms of earlier this month are broken
2015-07-23 17:34:11 fib1618: so be careful out there
2015-07-23 17:34:19 fib1618: OK...with that happy note
2015-07-23 17:34:27 rite01 G952: will do and you too
2015-07-23 17:34:28 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-07-23 17:34:37 fib1618: everyone have a super duper week ahead
2015-07-23 17:34:49 fib1618: and we'll be back to work on August 4th
2015-07-23 17:34:51 fib1618: good night
2015-07-23 17:35:45 rite01 G952: Is anyone going to log in to the chat site next week at the regular time?
2015-07-23 17:37:56 rite01 G952: Anyway I plan on looking in at our regular times if anyone interested.
2015-07-23 17:38:17 rite01 G952: Good night all have a good weekend

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