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fib_1618

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2008-07-22 19:04:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DD, You think we had the Hurst low last week?
2008-07-22 19:05:18 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes.
2008-07-22 19:05:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, vix headed for 11 now?
2008-07-22 19:05:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think about 21 at close
2008-07-22 19:05:46 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: However, whether it is left translated (the high already in or not, is to be seen). Not VIX is projecting to 20.
2008-07-22 19:05:55 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Since last week
2008-07-22 19:06:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, wish Fib would stop in
2008-07-22 19:07:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, well. Think we are all aboard that are coming aboard
2008-07-22 19:07:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I peeked at McClellan's earlier
2008-07-22 19:07:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I peeked. Oh, I just said the same thing!
2008-07-22 19:08:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will make a quick summary if that OK since so intimate group
2008-07-22 19:08:29 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Sure
2008-07-22 19:08:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Generally we had outside, upside range days all over the place.
2008-07-22 19:09:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Indicates we should have down day tomorrow.
2008-07-22 19:09:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Why?
2008-07-22 19:10:14 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: What is an outside, upside range day?
2008-07-22 19:10:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: We have several components of McClellan's coming up to 0 or or just past 0, so a bounce back below 0 or to / toward 0 expected.
2008-07-22 19:11:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: range of hi to low for todays indexes, (the ones we look at) is below yesterday's his and lows
2008-07-22 19:11:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thus outside
2008-07-22 19:11:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: close above yesterdays hi, therefore upside....
2008-07-22 19:11:57 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Thanks TM....is that usually bearish?
2008-07-22 19:12:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Not necessarily, I think, but with yesterday being up, I think it is. Some people think it is always bearish.....
2008-07-22 19:13:22 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: OK....
2008-07-22 19:14:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DD, re your question, if today an outside day, then in trending market, theory has it that close tomorrow will be in opposite direction than close yesterday
2008-07-22 19:14:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thus, yesterday up, tomorrow down
2008-07-22 19:14:45 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: OH, that's very interesting
2008-07-22 19:15:19 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Do you have a link to a chart?
2008-07-22 19:15:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: We have gone up about 5% I think in last 6 or so trading days.....that a lot
2008-07-22 19:15:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no, but we can look at DP chart....easy to see
2008-07-22 19:16:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosi_nyc.html
2008-07-22 19:17:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: can everybody see that chart?
2008-07-22 19:17:08 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I see it
2008-07-22 19:18:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: We have also made highs in MCOs most places higher than last several months except for the highs at end of Jan
2008-07-22 19:19:09 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: If McSum wasn't so low, and components testing bottom, I would say the possibility of an initiation thrust bullish side.
2008-07-22 19:19:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Usually such extreme highs give rise to reversal, for a while of MCO .....maybe we go back below 0 and get buy spike for continued upside?
2008-07-22 19:20:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, Fib said when MCO goes over and components still under, it's a correction.
2008-07-22 19:20:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That along with DDs observation, pretty much sums up MCOs
2008-07-22 19:21:04 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Those components have GOT to get over 0 for this to be even a serious bear rally, don't you agree?
2008-07-22 19:21:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Agree DD
2008-07-22 19:22:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, others.....comments re McClellan's?
2008-07-22 19:22:24 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Looking at Fib's NAAD chart - does this mean anything for new upside targets on NASDAQ with MCO hitting April highs.....http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosi_nyc.html 2008-07-22 19:23:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: JKW, I think it does, but don't know how to read it.....need Fib for that......
2008-07-22 19:23:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Also, a lot of those mcsum's are at -750 which means a test here, a struggle. I think fib might say we should watch for follow thru here very carefully.
2008-07-22 19:24:16 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Everything is out of sync....so I don't expect much except for a bear market rally for now.
2008-07-22 19:25:08 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: How is everything out of sync, jkw?
2008-07-22 19:26:15 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: The Nasdaq MCO making it up the April highs but not many other indices doing the same. They are falling short
2008-07-22 19:26:37 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Oh, I see. No confirmation.
2008-07-22 19:26:44 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes
2008-07-22 19:26:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: jkw, I am expecting same....maybe 1320 basis SPX......but not straight to there....may test back to low 1200s first, of just some pullback to 1230-40.....have not figured that out .....fibs and all that
2008-07-22 19:27:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Mid looks good, though.
2008-07-22 19:27:10 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: For a rally.
2008-07-22 19:27:41 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Did MCO make it to April highs DD? I don't have DP anymore
2008-07-22 19:27:53 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Which one, MID?
2008-07-22 19:28:08 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes Mid
2008-07-22 19:28:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, what I am seeing is that this last low on McSum is higher than Jan lows, though overshot March's.
2008-07-22 19:28:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: volume oscillators a little ST overbought....but could go much higher....or possibly pull back from here a little
2008-07-22 19:29:48 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I know - next week will be interesting. I thought we could look at sector charts tonight for a clue?
2008-07-22 19:30:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Feel free DD....that would be good
2008-07-22 19:30:46 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Small cap beat April's highs. Looks terrific.
2008-07-22 19:30:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: potentially.
2008-07-22 19:31:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: 5% way over 0, but 10% still under.
2008-07-22 19:31:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So what sectors are mostly in small caps? Let's look at those for a change.
2008-07-22 19:32:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I don't think any of them are mostly small caps
2008-07-22 19:32:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: did you see the resistance on the SML MCSUM we are coming into?
2008-07-22 19:33:07 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Will do DD......I think the DP sector charts are NYSE stocks.....
2008-07-22 19:33:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, I did. That MCO is a thing of beauty though.
2008-07-22 19:33:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: but don't see the MCO going much higher.....
2008-07-22 19:33:45 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Sector charts.
2008-07-22 19:34:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: McClellan sector charts?
2008-07-22 19:34:09 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, not this week obviously. ;0
2008-07-22 19:34:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yup.
2008-07-22 19:34:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k
2008-07-22 19:34:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Maybe some other DP stuff fib looks at once in a while.
2008-07-22 19:35:06 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Like Popular indexes, I don't know. Something different.
2008-07-22 19:35:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Was just looking consumer disc,,,,,does not look like raging bull
2008-07-22 19:36:00 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: LOL
2008-07-22 19:36:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsi_XLY.html
2008-07-22 19:36:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Was not trying to pick something ugly,,,,it is just the first one in the series
2008-07-22 19:37:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Same thing for staples.
2008-07-22 19:38:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: XLE not too swift either
2008-07-22 19:38:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Is there a trend here.....???
2008-07-22 19:39:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Another potential initiation point in XLF, except for components?
2008-07-22 19:40:36 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: XLE did have a little divergence with last MCO bottom....but I think Oil got more to go on downside.
2008-07-22 19:40:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: XLF outside range day too......and getting pretty extended on MCO
2008-07-22 19:40:53 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And despite all the pumping on CNBC, I don't think health care looks that great, anyone have a comment?
2008-07-22 19:41:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Agree the health, but best one we have seen so far
2008-07-22 19:41:59 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Why?
2008-07-22 19:42:03 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: XLF is pretty extended but did make new high over APRIL MCO. A little pull back but I think more to upside before bear market rally over.
2008-07-22 19:42:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Oh, I see, Mcsum divergence, and pretty high up too?
2008-07-22 19:42:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: components over 0.
2008-07-22 19:43:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: also have rising tops and bottoms on mco, and price
2008-07-22 19:43:59 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosi_nyc.html
2008-07-22 19:44:17 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, those rising tops, those too.
2008-07-22 19:44:58 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: DD.....AMGN is leading drug co. but 1st target is just about hit at 56
2008-07-22 19:45:24 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: If you look at the health care spyders, it just tested from above the 50 dma.
2008-07-22 19:45:36 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: DNA flying today, but hit resistance.
2008-07-22 19:45:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Isn't AMGN trying to be bought or is that some other biotech
2008-07-22 19:46:16 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Haven't heard about buyout....I think it's another biotech
2008-07-22 19:47:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Roche? Swiss drug company, trying to buy somebody....
2008-07-22 19:48:39 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: DNA?
2008-07-22 19:49:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: could be....
2008-07-22 19:50:02 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: DNA is Hitting upper channel line
2008-07-22 19:50:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, it is DNA
2008-07-22 19:50:14 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, also old resistance.
2008-07-22 19:50:43 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I wouldn't buy it till it cleared that resistance.
2008-07-22 19:50:59 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Utilities look terrible (XLU).
2008-07-22 19:51:19 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes Buy stop above 82.5
2008-07-22 19:51:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Utilities look like a good short here.
2008-07-22 19:52:16 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Unless they go up lol
2008-07-22 19:52:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: maybe WERE a good short.......maybe still are....but have gone down a tad already
2008-07-22 19:52:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What does that say re rates?
2008-07-22 19:53:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: possibly up??
2008-07-22 19:53:45 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, most have received 20% or better rake hikes.
2008-07-22 19:54:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: hey, how come all the sectors so ugalee and maket going up?
2008-07-22 19:54:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: DCB?
2008-07-22 19:54:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I meant interest rates.....but that good to know re rate rates anyway
2008-07-22 19:55:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DCB at least......maybe at most???
2008-07-22 19:55:14 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: You see, I don't agree on the small caps. Look how much further the MCO had to go up to get to the same place all the other MCO's did. That's a lot of effort.
2008-07-22 19:55:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: It started from a lower place.
2008-07-22 19:55:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: ok will look....got a chart?
2008-07-22 19:56:25 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Just look at the small caps on dp mco's.
2008-07-22 19:57:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k, so you think it might pull back or just keep going?
2008-07-22 19:57:30 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Wow....quite a move.....but also back in January we had similar situation
2008-07-22 19:57:51 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I don't know, it bears watching. It did the same exact thing in early '08, see?
2008-07-22 19:57:56 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: A buy spike on MCO but later price retested in Feb
2008-07-22 19:58:29 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes - Looks like Mortiz' classic three step McSum pattern, but in MCO.
2008-07-22 19:59:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Don't small caps get hit harder with rising interest rates? Or is it the bigger stocks with the dividends?
2008-07-22 20:00:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: and here I was going to short sml's tomorrow.....hmmm
2008-07-22 20:00:40 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Did Fib say that lower interest rates help small caps?
2008-07-22 20:01:11 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: They have to, don't those cos have less money?
2008-07-22 20:01:26 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: I thought I heard they are more sensitive to money yes.
2008-07-22 20:01:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: don't know, jkw.....I suppose lower rates help most, smls more because more dependent on same
2008-07-22 20:02:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, I would not look for lower rates anytime soon....anyhow
2008-07-22 20:02:48 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: That MCO makes it interesting though. I wonder what Fib would say.
2008-07-22 20:03:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I say MCO is at a high right about now......for a while at least
2008-07-22 20:04:09 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: You made a great call three weeks ago, so I'll agree
2008-07-22 20:04:53 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Really terrific call, Mark.
2008-07-22 20:05:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks DD, but not as great as your calls DD....you are wired to the Hurst gods I think
2008-07-22 20:05:38 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: I think that the wild card that is helping market is that Oil has been going down and helping the market. Nat Gas got hit today too.
2008-07-22 20:06:09 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Oil projected to go lower in the near term before finding support from my read
2008-07-22 20:06:18 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, I agree, but gas at pump still up. OEXCHAOS says it's because refiners still trying to make up the loss.
2008-07-22 20:06:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, I am about tapped out......we need to look at more sectors?
2008-07-22 20:07:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: And while we thinking of that. we want to get together next week?
2008-07-22 20:07:27 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, could you just do trin and vtos' for us?
2008-07-22 20:07:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k
2008-07-22 20:08:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looking
2008-07-22 20:09:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: CVIs and STVOs a little on the overbought side
2008-07-22 20:10:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: VTO a little on the oversold side.....
2008-07-22 20:11:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NYSE arms 1.06 .....open 10 1.06.....floor in place.....hmmm could rally from right here
2008-07-22 20:11:44 [Message] lurker -> Main Room: especially with the Summation's oversold?
2008-07-22 20:12:04 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Also early in Hurst 10 week cycle, plus bullish engulfing pattern on indices (many)...
2008-07-22 20:12:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NASDAQ arms 1.06 ,,,,open 10 at .97....minimal floor
2008-07-22 20:12:20 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Those components need to get over 0.
2008-07-22 20:12:32 [Message] lurker -> Main Room: and if they don't?
2008-07-22 20:12:53 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Not good for rally.
2008-07-22 20:12:59 [Message] lurker -> Main Room: short covering?
2008-07-22 20:13:04 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yup.
2008-07-22 20:13:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: TM arms .98......
2008-07-22 20:14:02 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, but it is not sustained. Bear market rally.
2008-07-22 20:14:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Open 10 on TM .98....minimal floor
2008-07-22 20:14:28 [Message] lurker -> Main Room: maybe the process that creates bottoms?
2008-07-22 20:14:36 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: True....
2008-07-22 20:14:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, bottom line is?????
2008-07-22 20:15:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: drums rolling for DD summary for next few days
2008-07-22 20:15:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: TM, I think the bottom line here is to look for the components to get over 0. What do you think?
2008-07-22 20:15:41 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Jkw? Thoughts here?
2008-07-22 20:16:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think a pullback for VST....next 2-3 day...then up and away
2008-07-22 20:16:45 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Expect choppy action but I think a little higher before bear rally over.
2008-07-22 20:16:53 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, I agree.
2008-07-22 20:16:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: fwiw, I was one of 3 that voted in FF poll for up day today.......
2008-07-22 20:17:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, jkw, you saying same as me?
2008-07-22 20:17:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: not sure I understand?
2008-07-22 20:17:50 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes TM
2008-07-22 20:17:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks
2008-07-22 20:18:35 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Wonderful work the last three weeks, Mark, really, thanks for facilitating this...
2008-07-22 20:18:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, next week then.....good trading all......I need a little help from trading gods in next few days.....been out of sync in last few
2008-07-22 20:18:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks DD
2008-07-22 20:19:00 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: So next week Thanks Mark and DD
2008-07-22 20:19:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: GN all
2008-07-22 20:19:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: GN, Mark!



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