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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-07-21 15:59:55 fib1618: good day
2015-07-21 15:59:59 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-07-21 16:00:31 rite01 G400: Good here and how was your weekend?
2015-07-21 16:01:26 fib1618: weekend was fine...uneventful
2015-07-21 16:01:50 rite01 G400: Did you get any of the recent rains?
2015-07-21 16:02:50 fib1618: nope
2015-07-21 16:02:54 fib1618: we're too far north
2015-07-21 16:03:14 fib1618: more rain than at anytime in history is a great omen for the winter
2015-07-21 16:03:26 fib1618: for the month of July, that is
2015-07-21 16:03:59 fib1618: but boy...it has been Texas muggy here for the last few days
2015-07-21 16:04:02 rite01 G400: don't understand
2015-07-21 16:04:30 fib1618: the average rain fall for the month of July in the southern part of the state is something like .02 inches
2015-07-21 16:04:43 fib1618: the record was something like .42 inches
2015-07-21 16:05:03 fib1618: they got about .62 inches from the remnants of a hurricane
2015-07-21 16:05:25 fib1618: problem was
2015-07-21 16:05:34 fib1618: it all came at one time...within an hour
2015-07-21 16:06:06 fib1618: we're a Mediterranean climate here in California
2015-07-21 16:06:14 fib1618: so we get very little summer rain
2015-07-21 16:06:36 fib1618: more so in the central valley where I live
2015-07-21 16:07:01 fib1618: that's why we grow so many of the crops for the consumption of the US population
2015-07-21 16:07:09 fib1618: nuts
2015-07-21 16:07:10 fib1618: rice
2015-07-21 16:07:14 fib1618: fruit
2015-07-21 16:07:17 fib1618: veggies
2015-07-21 16:07:39 rite01 G400: You've got great fishing as well
2015-07-21 16:07:46 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-07-21 16:08:00 rite01 G400: that's why they call it God's country
2015-07-21 16:08:00 fib1618: fishing is a bit of a problem right now with the drought
2015-07-21 16:08:09 fib1618: well...don't know about that
2015-07-21 16:08:34 fib1618: but we are home of the largest, tallest and oldest living things on the planet so that probably counts for something [smile]
2015-07-21 16:08:50 rite01 G400: Red woods
2015-07-21 16:08:55 fib1618: "tallest"
2015-07-21 16:09:21 fib1618: the largest is a relative of the redwoods
2015-07-21 16:09:33 rite01 G400: no clue
2015-07-21 16:09:41 fib1618: Sequoia's
2015-07-21 16:09:53 rite01 G400: really
2015-07-21 16:09:53 fib1618: those are the trees you can drive your car through!
2015-07-21 16:10:13 rite01 G400: I thought those were the Redwoods
2015-07-21 16:10:37 fib1618: both the redwoods and sequoia's grow in only two places on the planet...here in California and China
2015-07-21 16:10:45 fib1618: larger redwoods you might be able to
2015-07-21 16:10:59 fib1618: but they are generally not wide enough
2015-07-21 16:11:10 fib1618: the oldest living things are....
2015-07-21 16:11:16 fib1618: the Bristol Cone Pine
2015-07-21 16:11:27 fib1618: they reside at the top of the Sierra
2015-07-21 16:11:39 fib1618: and many have been around before Christ
2015-07-21 16:12:04 fib1618: anyway...lots to see and do here that's for sure
2015-07-21 16:12:34 rite01 G400: Wow You get a History lessons here as well..  Let's begin
2015-07-21 16:12:43 fib1618: OK...let's get cracking.
2015-07-21 16:14:19 fib1618: after showing a bearish divergent structure with Thursday's price highs
2015-07-21 16:14:41 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has since moved sharply back to its zero line
2015-07-21 16:15:00 fib1618: and moved still lower today
2015-07-21 16:15:14 fib1618: looking at the NYA price pattern itself
2015-07-21 16:15:29 fib1618: and we have our old friend an "island reversal" working here
2015-07-21 16:16:04 fib1618: and looking at the CO components
2015-07-21 16:16:21 fib1618: we are back to a crossover sell signal now because of this lack of internal follow through
2015-07-21 16:17:05 fib1618: not too surprising here as we saw a lack of participation with the MID and SML with last weeks relief rally
2015-07-21 16:17:14 fib1618: and so a period of back and fill is now under way
2015-07-21 16:17:20 rite01 G400: Bear with me "island reversal"?
2015-07-21 16:18:05 fib1618: you see how Thursday's price bar gaped up and then gaped lower the next day?
2015-07-21 16:18:14 fib1618: it left an "island" behind
2015-07-21 16:18:30 fib1618: all by itself
2015-07-21 16:18:36 rite01 G400: Another new term "just learned"
2015-07-21 16:18:44 rite01 G400: Thanks
2015-07-21 16:18:50 fib1618: they are rare patterns
2015-07-21 16:18:56 fib1618: part of gap theory
2015-07-21 16:19:17 fib1618: they usually take place during highly emotionally charged pattern sequences
2015-07-21 16:19:34 fib1618: when the reflex losses all of its momentum
2015-07-21 16:19:41 fib1618: and a vacuum is created
2015-07-21 16:20:09 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-07-21 16:20:19 fib1618: and here we saw our higher high on Thursday
2015-07-21 16:20:45 fib1618: and we have now moved sharply lower from this point and finished today with a reading of -2
2015-07-21 16:20:58 fib1618: as we know all too well
2015-07-21 16:21:13 fib1618: when we see the MCO move back to or toward its zero line
2015-07-21 16:21:22 fib1618: once this technical expectation is completed
2015-07-21 16:21:36 fib1618: we usually see a technical bounce off this same line
2015-07-21 16:21:45 fib1618: so this would be expected on Wednesday
2015-07-21 16:22:09 fib1618: and looking at the Composite components
2015-07-21 16:22:29 fib1618: we see that with the 10% snapping back to the 5% Trend
2015-07-21 16:22:36 fib1618: and that a bounce here would be indicated near term
2015-07-21 16:22:45 fib1618: in this case
2015-07-21 16:23:02 fib1618: a simple snapback to the zero line is the minimal technical expectation
2015-07-21 16:23:49 fib1618: where any additional strength would be a near term bonus to our forecast of a tradable low coming sometime by the end of July/1st week of August
2015-07-21 16:25:20 fib1618: as this would then provide the necessary strength so that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM will be able to fully snapback to its zero line in this same internal development of our foundational platform from where prices can rally later on
2015-07-21 16:25:47 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ price chart
2015-07-21 16:26:09 fib1618: and we see that we have fulfilled Monday's mid range close of expecting a down close today in the Composite
2015-07-21 16:26:57 fib1618: we also see that both the NASDAQ breadth MCO and its components are back below their respected zero lines again
2015-07-21 16:27:17 fib1618: and this would suggest that the sellers are back to having some control here
2015-07-21 16:27:37 fib1618: and this might be able to push prices lower over the next couple of days
2015-07-21 16:27:41 fib1618: in this case
2015-07-21 16:28:31 fib1618: this would likely be within the simple concept of a snapback in the price pattern back to or toward the previous all time highs at around the 5155 level
2015-07-21 16:29:00 fib1618: so we have a play of 50 points to the downside that we can work with within the overall concept of our backing and filling
2015-07-21 16:30:11 rite01 G400: and that would fill that first gap last Monday that started this last move up
2015-07-21 16:30:32 fib1618: could very well be
2015-07-21 16:30:46 fib1618: which would then make that gap a pattern gap and not a break-away variety
2015-07-21 16:30:53 fib1618: but if we remember correctly
2015-07-21 16:31:21 fib1618: much of the strength from last week came from the NDX (top 100) weighted stocks that make up the Composite
2015-07-21 16:31:27 fib1618: so let's see how they're doing
2015-07-21 16:31:49 fib1618: and there we see that today's reading on the NDX breadth MCO is a +34
2015-07-21 16:32:01 rite01 G400: Lots better
2015-07-21 16:32:09 fib1618: after reaching an "overbought" +79 last week
2015-07-21 16:32:27 fib1618: so as long as the NDX breadth MCO remains above its zero line
2015-07-21 16:32:51 rite01 G400: is AMZN in the NDX?
2015-07-21 16:33:22 fib1618: the likelihood of the gap from last week will NOT be filled
2015-07-21 16:33:28 fib1618: yes...AMZN is in the NDX
2015-07-21 16:33:35 fib1618: GOOG
2015-07-21 16:33:37 fib1618: AAPL
2015-07-21 16:33:50 fib1618: think of the largest companies on the NASDAQ and they're in there
2015-07-21 16:34:12 fib1618: is AMZN close to giving earnings?
2015-07-21 16:34:21 rite01 G400: sorry no clue
2015-07-21 16:34:36 fib1618: let me check now that you've gotten my curiosity peaked...one sec
2015-07-21 16:35:54 fib1618: Thursday
2015-07-21 16:36:03 fib1618: after the bell
2015-07-21 16:36:30 rite01 G400: So if NASDAQ MCO stays below -0-
2015-07-21 16:36:43 fib1618: consensus are sells of 22.5 BILLION for the quarter...amazing
2015-07-21 16:36:57 fib1618: anyway
2015-07-21 16:37:09 fib1618: as long as the NDX breadth MCO remains above the zero line
2015-07-21 16:37:22 fib1618: that should keep the Composite from closing last weeks gap completely
2015-07-21 16:38:04 fib1618: note also that the NDX breadth MCSUM is now some 90 data points from reaching its zero line target for this move
2015-07-21 16:38:27 fib1618: so we should see some firmness, regardless, over the next couple of trading days to get there
2015-07-21 16:38:55 fib1618: moving to the SPX
2015-07-21 16:39:32 fib1618: and we see that Monday's mid range close provided us with a down close today
2015-07-21 16:40:13 fib1618: while both the SPX breadth MCO, components and MCSUM are now neutral overall
2015-07-21 16:40:28 fib1618: showing balance between buyers and sellers at current price levels
2015-07-21 16:40:37 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2015-07-21 16:40:44 fib1618: both internally and externally
2015-07-21 16:41:28 fib1618: with the divergent lows of early July showing the greater directional strength for now
2015-07-21 16:42:19 fib1618: it's up to the sellers then to break this down if they are to have any chance of regaining the control that they squandered with the Greece and China situations
2015-07-21 16:43:11 fib1618: did anyone notice how the Shanghai index is now up 400 points from its "we're going to crash" lows of last week?
2015-07-21 16:43:22 fib1618: that's over 10%
2015-07-21 16:43:35 fib1618: and not many commenting on it...wonder why? [smile]
2015-07-21 16:44:19 fib1618: sentiment is such an amazing tool if used at the right time and context
2015-07-21 16:44:44 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2015-07-21 16:45:04 fib1618: and it also remains above its zero line with a reading today of +18
2015-07-21 16:45:45 fib1618: could be a time for a bounce here as well as the OEX breadth MCSUM makes its way toward the +250 level
2015-07-21 16:46:25 fib1618: like the SPX data
2015-07-21 16:46:44 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO, Components and MCSUM are also neutral at this time
2015-07-21 16:47:15 fib1618: and this is after the Dow breadth MCO peaked out with a reading of +102 last week
2015-07-21 16:47:34 fib1618: because we have no texture in the retracement to the MCO zero line
2015-07-21 16:47:42 fib1618: we'll call this a corrective process for now
2015-07-21 16:48:05 fib1618: as we wait and see which side decides to take the baton for the next week or so
2015-07-21 16:48:39 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO continues to move lower
2015-07-21 16:48:57 fib1618: as it broke below its zero line today
2015-07-21 16:49:08 fib1618: with today's reading at a -23
2015-07-21 16:49:42 fib1618: there's always the probability of a technical snapback toward the MCO zero line as our next expectation...by Thursday at the latest
2015-07-21 16:50:01 fib1618: while looking at the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-07-21 16:50:27 fib1618: we have already snapped back to the zero line that was also expected last week
2015-07-21 16:50:53 fib1618: so a positive day on Wednesday would align this entire group of issues as being balanced between buyers and sellers
2015-07-21 16:51:04 rite01 G400: Was last Tuesday's MID high price a MCO negative divergent signal
2015-07-21 16:52:09 fib1618: no...it was the Thursday peak that provided the divergence
2015-07-21 16:52:29 fib1618: Tuesday was more in the "exhaustion" classification...a shut down of the engines
2015-07-21 16:52:43 fib1618: where the momentum of the reflex rally still had its influence
2015-07-21 16:52:48 rite01 G400: OK thanks
2015-07-21 16:52:58 fib1618: just being consistent here [smile]
2015-07-21 16:53:15 fib1618: remember
2015-07-21 16:53:23 fib1618: we had a lot of cross currents on Thursday
2015-07-21 16:53:36 fib1618: where we had lower peaks in many MCO's
2015-07-21 16:53:45 fib1618: with the exception of the NYSE Composite
2015-07-21 16:54:08 fib1618: so either the buyers were going to step up again and provide the necessary push to put things back into sync
2015-07-21 16:54:08 fib1618: or
2015-07-21 16:54:15 fib1618: we would back and fill
2015-07-21 16:54:30 fib1618: it took a couple of more days of chop...but we have that now
2015-07-21 16:54:38 fib1618: look at today
2015-07-21 16:54:50 fib1618: the Dow opened down some 100 points on the back of 4 issues
2015-07-21 16:54:54 fib1618: but the SPX was flat
2015-07-21 16:54:58 fib1618: and the NASDAQ was up
2015-07-21 16:55:33 fib1618: and our expectation was, and remains, that we will remain volatile and choppy
2015-07-21 16:55:44 fib1618: as long as the internals are not in sync
2015-07-21 16:55:55 fib1618: this is the only thing that prices can do...churn
2015-07-21 16:55:56 fib1618: digest
2015-07-21 16:55:59 fib1618: consolidate
2015-07-21 16:56:05 fib1618: and now
2015-07-21 16:56:25 fib1618: as opposed to early last week where we had a slight bullish bias
2015-07-21 16:56:31 fib1618: now we have a slight bearish bias
2015-07-21 16:56:53 fib1618: but NO ONE has really taken control that could generate an actual trend
2015-07-21 16:57:17 fib1618: and this is part of the construction going on right now
2015-07-21 17:00:23 fib1618: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2015-07-21 17:00:33 fib1618: and here we are seeing how the "above average" weakness due to the lack of upside confirmation from last week is showing a higher degree of weakness
2015-07-21 17:01:12 fib1618: and this remains the bear's proxy for now
2015-07-21 17:01:27 fib1618: as we saw the SML breadth MCSUM snapback to and actually above its zero line
2015-07-21 17:01:47 fib1618: failed to follow through
2015-07-21 17:01:56 fib1618: and we are now moving down and through it again
2015-07-21 17:02:15 fib1618: so if we see a take out of the lows of 7/10
2015-07-21 17:02:27 fib1618: this would be a highly bearish event for the index itself
2015-07-21 17:02:32 fib1618: and by extension
2015-07-21 17:02:38 fib1618: the market as well
2015-07-21 17:02:59 fib1618: so let's keep an watchful eye on this group of issues over the next couple of days
2015-07-21 17:03:33 fib1618: and a snapback to the zero line also complete now on the TM breadth MCO
2015-07-21 17:04:00 fib1618: with a negative crossover in the TM MCO Components
2015-07-21 17:04:41 fib1618: which would open the door to prices in the Wilshire 5000 to around the 22,200 level
2015-07-21 17:05:25 fib1618: but not much more than that UNLESS we see a zero line failure on any snapback
2015-07-21 17:05:36 fib1618: and then move to below where we settled today
2015-07-21 17:05:39 fib1618: so...
2015-07-21 17:06:10 fib1618: our blueprint of a pullback after last weeks relief rally is inline to our expectations
2015-07-21 17:06:28 fib1618: and where it's likely that we'll see a technical bounce higher on Wednesday
2015-07-21 17:07:15 fib1618: leaving Thursday as an important day as to the time it will take to finish our pouring the concrete on last week's "re-bar" construction
2015-07-21 17:07:29 fib1618: let's see how the volume end looks
2015-07-21 17:08:44 fib1618: and we see that the NYSE volume MCO is echoing the weakness shown by its breadth cousin over the last couple of days
2015-07-21 17:08:49 fib1618: so that's constructive
2015-07-21 17:08:52 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-07-21 17:09:30 fib1618: the lack of seeing a higher high in the NYSE Composite volume MCO was the greater tip off that we were likely to see a pullback
2015-07-21 17:09:51 fib1618: (even if we didn't have the access to the non confirmations we were seeing in the MID and SML)
2015-07-21 17:10:11 fib1618: in both cases though
2015-07-21 17:10:19 fib1618: a zero line bounce would be indicated here
2015-07-21 17:11:02 fib1618: with any further weakness opening the door ever so slightly that the price lows of 7/8 will be challenged
2015-07-21 17:11:39 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-07-21 17:12:00 fib1618: we had good confirmation of last weeks price highs in both the NASDAQ and NDX as both their volume MCO's made new higher highs
2015-07-21 17:12:18 fib1618: so that's a good thing for the buyers
2015-07-21 17:12:40 fib1618: and this should keep prices from selling off hard on any further price decay we might see over the next day or two
2015-07-21 17:13:04 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO is echoing its breadth cousin
2015-07-21 17:13:22 fib1618: so that's a good thing as far as synchronicity is concerned
2015-07-21 17:14:05 fib1618: both the OEX and Dow volume MCO's are both showing a lack of real selling here
2015-07-21 17:14:54 fib1618: and this is something that we need to see moving forward in our expected development of an internal foundation
2015-07-21 17:15:16 fib1618: we have problems though with the MID volume MCO
2015-07-21 17:15:22 fib1618: as it continues to sag lower
2015-07-21 17:15:59 fib1618: and this near term weakness has provided control back to the sellers now as the MID volume MCSUM moves to new lows
2015-07-21 17:16:04 fib1618: that's not a good thing short term
2015-07-21 17:16:25 fib1618: and fishtails what the NASDAQ and NDX are suggesting
2015-07-21 17:16:45 fib1618: a positive small point change today in the SML volume MCO
2015-07-21 17:17:16 fib1618: but this looks like a small hesitation move as the SML volume MCSUM also moved to lower lows
2015-07-21 17:17:55 fib1618: and the TM volume MCO remains somewhat buoyant here
2015-07-21 17:18:11 fib1618: as it settled today with a +8 reading
2015-07-21 17:19:09 fib1618: while both of the TM volume MCO components play their game of tag in and around their zero lines
2015-07-21 17:19:12 fib1618: so...
2015-07-21 17:19:21 fib1618: we remain out of sync by and large
2015-07-21 17:19:25 fib1618: and as we expected
2015-07-21 17:19:50 fib1618: it's likely to take another week or so before all the kinks are out of the armor
2015-07-21 17:20:13 fib1618: and we can then have a chance to develop some sort of trend...higher or lower
2015-07-21 17:20:20 fib1618: let's check the OBV data
2015-07-21 17:20:51 fib1618: CVI's are mixed
2015-07-21 17:21:03 fib1618: the STVO's are now easing off toward their zero lines
2015-07-21 17:21:22 fib1618: this was probably the best tool we used last week in looking for this pullback
2015-07-21 17:21:51 fib1618: VTO's are also mixed...but are beginning to get a little frothy
2015-07-21 17:21:56 fib1618: but nothing too out of control
2015-07-21 17:22:14 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.07
2015-07-21 17:22:24 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2015-07-21 17:22:48 fib1618: not enough, as yet, to be beneficial to the bull cause
2015-07-21 17:23:08 fib1618: but we should see a higher number tomorrow me thinks as the 3.23 reading takes a bigger hold of the data
2015-07-21 17:23:23 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .72
2015-07-21 17:23:29 fib1618: that's not a good thing
2015-07-21 17:23:34 fib1618: with prices moving lower
2015-07-21 17:23:47 fib1618: seems traders were trying to buy the dip
2015-07-21 17:24:03 fib1618: Open 10 now at .88
2015-07-21 17:24:33 fib1618: so we'll need to see some bearish sentiment here, near term, to get this indicator back to a more desirable level for the buyers
2015-07-21 17:24:45 fib1618: TM TRIN at .82
2015-07-21 17:24:57 fib1618: Open 10 at .91
2015-07-21 17:24:59 fib1618: neutral
2015-07-21 17:25:16 fib1618: and someone is going to exert their influence in the next couple of days
2015-07-21 17:25:20 fib1618: so...
2015-07-21 17:25:27 fib1618: after any rally attempt on Wednesday
2015-07-21 17:25:36 fib1618: we should see another sharp decline take place
2015-07-21 17:25:40 fib1618: or at the very least
2015-07-21 17:25:55 fib1618: enough of a negative day to allow traders to question their biases
2015-07-21 17:26:26 fib1618: and get a some heavier weighting toward down volume issues
2015-07-21 17:26:38 fib1618: at this point
2015-07-21 17:26:56 fib1618: we continue to look for the first opportunity of a tradable bottom to come after next week
2015-07-21 17:27:21 fib1618: but the bulls still have some work to do here before this outlook can actually materialize
2015-07-21 17:27:27 fib1618: let's see how the BETS is doing
2015-07-21 17:28:33 fib1618: yuck
2015-07-21 17:28:34 fib1618: -40
2015-07-21 17:29:01 fib1618: this is an important moment now for the bulls
2015-07-21 17:29:23 fib1618: as they can allow the rest of this week as a time to regroup
2015-07-21 17:29:30 fib1618: but if they start losing their back up
2015-07-21 17:29:44 fib1618: we could have continued weakness going into the fall
2015-07-21 17:29:58 fib1618: should be interesting
2015-07-21 17:30:12 fib1618: but we're seeing weakness intensify now in the Canadian issues
2015-07-21 17:30:25 fib1618: and that's not a good thing for the longer term for the US markets
2015-07-21 17:30:38 fib1618: we'll see how it goes
2015-07-21 17:30:41 fib1618: anything else?
2015-07-21 17:30:51 rite01 G400: Notice since Nov 2014 and no QE... market has traded sideways does that mean ZIRP is only holding the market flat
2015-07-21 17:31:09 fib1618: if I had to guess
2015-07-21 17:31:22 fib1618: well...let me put it this way
2015-07-21 17:31:47 fib1618: the price of gold tells us whether or not the spigot is open or closed by the FED
2015-07-21 17:31:49 fib1618: as we know
2015-07-21 17:31:59 fib1618: the price of gold has been declining for over 2 years now
2015-07-21 17:32:22 fib1618: which tells us that though many had believed the FED was being "accomodative" toward the asset classes
2015-07-21 17:32:31 fib1618: the opposite has been true
2015-07-21 17:32:48 fib1618: with gold's latest collapse then
2015-07-21 17:33:05 fib1618: this instructs us that monetary policy is likely to continue to be negative
2015-07-21 17:33:15 fib1618: in my thinking
2015-07-21 17:34:05 fib1618: zero interest rates is more of an incentive for capital to remain in other areas of total return
2015-07-21 17:34:11 fib1618: as opposed to being in cash
2015-07-21 17:34:27 fib1618: we haven't seen a collapse in debt as yet
2015-07-21 17:34:53 fib1618: but since capital moves into gold first, then commodities, then to debt and finally into equities over an average 18 month duration
2015-07-21 17:35:09 fib1618: with gold and commodities already far from their high points
2015-07-21 17:35:18 fib1618: we should see debt start to also sell off very soon as this lack of easier money becomes harder to come by
2015-07-21 17:35:24 fib1618: which means higher interest rates
2015-07-21 17:35:28 fib1618: and eventually
2015-07-21 17:35:52 fib1618: this will choke off the liquidity factor to the point of strangulation in stocks
2015-07-21 17:35:54 fib1618: now...
2015-07-21 17:36:04 fib1618: it took over 2 years of rising rates in the 2004-2006 period
2015-07-21 17:36:16 fib1618: from 1% to 6% in the Fed Funds Rate before equities collapsed
2015-07-21 17:36:19 fib1618: and historically
2015-07-21 17:36:50 fib1618: it's been moves of up to 5% that proceeds equity bear markets
2015-07-21 17:36:59 fib1618: so to answer your question
2015-07-21 17:37:29 fib1618: the thing that's keeping prices from declining is that liquidity remains ample enough to support current levels
2015-07-21 17:37:47 fib1618: and whether its because of current policy, or past policy, really doesn't matter
2015-07-21 17:37:52 fib1618: it is what it is
2015-07-21 17:38:02 fib1618: and to wit
2015-07-21 17:38:39 fib1618: will continue to keep equity prices from declining in any important way for the unforeseen future...with the debt market giving us the head's up
2015-07-21 17:38:42 fib1618: remember
2015-07-21 17:39:00 fib1618: we saw the NYSE Preferred A/D line close at new all time highs last week
2015-07-21 17:39:07 fib1618: so based on this alone
2015-07-21 17:39:34 fib1618: we are still 2-4 months away from seeing anything that would be called "destructive" to the longer term trend
2015-07-21 17:39:54 fib1618: and the longer we don't see improvement in the economy
2015-07-21 17:40:07 fib1618: the higher the chance that rates will again move lower in response
2015-07-21 17:40:26 fib1618: watch the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line for direction as it's the most sensitive to rate changes and the 2.5% area for the 10 year
2015-07-21 17:41:08 fib1618: aside from that, we also have to address what's going on in Europe or Japan and their current monetary policies
2015-07-21 17:41:28 fib1618: and the global influence that's involved there
2015-07-21 17:41:33 fib1618: for now
2015-07-21 17:41:37 fib1618: we're corrective
2015-07-21 17:41:47 fib1618: that's all that's important
2015-07-21 17:42:01 fib1618: and in the process of trying to create a base from which to advance
2015-07-21 17:42:09 fib1618: if the base is cracked
2015-07-21 17:42:11 fib1618: or breaks
2015-07-21 17:42:24 fib1618: then the market tries it again at a different, lower level
2015-07-21 17:43:02 fib1618: what we need here is a negative piece of news from Greece or China (or both) and that should do it for now (since they were the background stories of the latest pullback)
2015-07-21 17:43:10 rite01 G400: OK getting it little by little...
2015-07-21 17:43:19 fib1618: don't over think this
2015-07-21 17:43:28 fib1618: forget the fundamentals
2015-07-21 17:43:36 fib1618: as it isn't important where the money comes from
2015-07-21 17:43:41 fib1618: or who's involved
2015-07-21 17:43:47 fib1618: all that's important is...
2015-07-21 17:43:53 fib1618: how much is there for investment
2015-07-21 17:44:02 fib1618: and whether it's being put to use
2015-07-21 17:44:05 fib1618: that's it
2015-07-21 17:44:11 fib1618: everything else is gibberish
2015-07-21 17:44:32 fib1618: OK...and with that
2015-07-21 17:44:36 fib1618: I'm going to take my leave
2015-07-21 17:44:46 fib1618: everyone remember that we have another chat on Wednesday
2015-07-21 17:44:55 fib1618: and then our usual get together on Thursday
2015-07-21 17:44:58 fib1618: until then
2015-07-21 17:45:08 fib1618: everyone have a great rest of the day
2015-07-21 17:45:17 fib1618: and we'll do this all again tomorrow
2015-07-21 17:45:19 fib1618: good night


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