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Posts: 5,093
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-07-17 15:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-07-17 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-07-17 16:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see what happens when an important MCSUM level is broken? [smile]
2014-07-17 16:03:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-07-17 16:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we never really know what the trigger is, but it tends to be something unexpected
2014-07-17 16:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-07-17 16:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: welcome back Sam...good to have you back!!
2014-07-17 16:04:38 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: good to be here
2014-07-17 16:04:41 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: No can not wait to hear what you have to say tonight!
2014-07-17 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s not so much what I say as it is was the market says
2014-07-17 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am but a mere conduit [smile]
2014-07-17 16:06:04 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Correction I can not wait to learn even more what the market said today
2014-07-17 16:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-07-17 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bet the VIX had a great day...let me check
2014-07-17 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: youzer...up 32%
2014-07-17 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VXN only up 18%
2014-07-17 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shows who has the strength here
2014-07-17 16:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get cracking
2014-07-17 16:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the buyers tried their best to hold the line yesterday and early today
2014-07-17 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overseas news was just too much to bear
2014-07-17 16:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE CO breadth MCO showed a technical breakdown in its structure
2014-07-17 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finishing the day slightly below the important April lows
2014-07-17 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this lower low in the CO MCO
2014-07-17 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw the 5% Trend also move below its zero line today
2014-07-17 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: joining the 10% Index
2014-07-17 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not surprisingly
2014-07-17 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +500 level today as well
2014-07-17 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall, we are now on a short term technical sell signal
2014-07-17 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the intermediate term remains corrective
2014-07-17 16:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the two
2014-07-17 16:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our anticipated smaller consolidation pattern will now be able to expand a bit
2014-07-17 16:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the lower level of this range is probable at the 10,600 level on the NYA
2014-07-17 16:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this breakdown
2014-07-17 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices on the NYA should be able to move below the reaction lows of last week as soon as tomorrow
2014-07-17 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2014-07-17 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will become important that the February MCO lows now hold
2014-07-17 16:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we will then be able to retrace the entire run from those same lows
2014-07-17 16:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not likely given where the MCSUM is currently
2014-07-17 16:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something to watch for if any further noise accompanies the current geopolitical news that was received today
2014-07-17 16:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-07-17 16:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also saw a failure by the buyers, and a technical breakdown was the result
2014-07-17 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking out the April low point
2014-07-17 16:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now challenging the February lows seen on the chart
2014-07-17 16:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the 10% Trend moved below its zero line today
2014-07-17 16:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 5% remains in positive territory
2014-07-17 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with enough room for further decline before reaching its zero line from where a reflex rally will probably be seen
2014-07-17 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO itself is now "oversold"
2014-07-17 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we get these kinds of technical breakdowns
2014-07-17 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't tend to reflex the day after
2014-07-17 16:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe the early part of next week would be a better time for this kind of thing to occur
2014-07-17 16:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as out Elliott idea is concerned
2014-07-17 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be in our "C" wave
2014-07-17 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do break below the February lows on the MCO
2014-07-17 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only an impulse would be able to provide such extremes
2014-07-17 16:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so our labeling would change from that of "C" to "3"
2014-07-17 16:22:30 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: NYSE MCO oversold because of ????
2014-07-17 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -50 to -80 is the "oversold" zone
2014-07-17 16:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -80 to -100 is highly "oversold"
2014-07-17 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything below -100 is deeply "oversold"
2014-07-17 16:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually occurs at very important price bottoms
2014-07-17 16:23:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Gotcha
2014-07-17 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that with today's breakdown in the MCO
2014-07-17 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +750 level today as well
2014-07-17 16:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with any further downside momentum near term
2014-07-17 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next target there would be the +500 level
2014-07-17 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm....looking at the daily chart
2014-07-17 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure looks like a head and shoulders top...let me check the volume
2014-07-17 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2014-07-17 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much volume on the right shoulder
2014-07-17 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably why we didn't break the "neckline" today
2014-07-17 16:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-07-17 16:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a simple topping pattern in play here
2014-07-17 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not one that would indicate a change in trend
2014-07-17 16:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved sharply lower today
2014-07-17 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now challenging its February lows
2014-07-17 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking below its mid April support area today
2014-07-17 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-07-17 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they continue to unwind nicely in support of the sellers
2014-07-17 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-07-17 16:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now at its zero line with a reading of +6
2014-07-17 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is where we thought it would be by today
2014-07-17 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's breakdown though in the MCO
2014-07-17 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now know that the zero line will not hold short term
2014-07-17 16:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like today when you break important levels of support
2014-07-17 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it won't be too surprising at all if the NASDAQ had a rough day on Friday as the MCSUM moves down and through the zero line and the sellers take over control of the action
2014-07-17 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-07-17 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have 3 downside price targets triggered today
2014-07-17 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the expectation that the 4100 is likely to be the intermediate price target for this pattern structure
2014-07-17 16:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we also have strong apex support from the triangle pattern of the April/May period
2014-07-17 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we're getting a good cleansing now
2014-07-17 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also broke its near term structural support today
2014-07-17 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it remains much more buoyant than the NASDAQ Composite
2014-07-17 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-07-17 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is that we should find solid support at the 3775 level on any further decline from here
2014-07-17 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX components
2014-07-17 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend only moved below its zero line today
2014-07-17 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% remains in positive territory
2014-07-17 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the two
2014-07-17 16:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that this basket of stocks is only correcting excesses at this time
2014-07-17 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continues to be supportive by traders in general
2014-07-17 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something else shown here
2014-07-17 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we had the discussion that the NDX would tend to be more buoyant than the Composite because of where their MCSUM's lie
2014-07-17 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as you can see in the last week or so
2014-07-17 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX actually moved to new highs
2014-07-17 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NASDAQ did not
2014-07-17 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the NDX gets closer to the +500 level
2014-07-17 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see this price index show better recoveries than the Composite over the next couple of weeks
2014-07-17 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is important information for those who trade the QQQ
2014-07-17 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as to not fall into the trap that as the broader index goes, so will the top 100 stocks of this same marketplace
2014-07-17 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2014-07-17 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we remain above the April lows
2014-07-17 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 10% Trend has only moved below its zero line today
2014-07-17 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2014-07-17 16:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the broader index of the NYA is showing better weakness here compared to the larger caps that make up part of this overall total
2014-07-17 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the NDX doing well compared to the broader based NASDAQ Composite
2014-07-17 16:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that not all stocks are being sold right now
2014-07-17 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the ones that are not so "deserving"
2014-07-17 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need another day or two to confirm this
2014-07-17 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would appear that money isn't actually moving out of stocks
2014-07-17 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are seeing allocation moves back into the value area
2014-07-17 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what can be called "defensive posturing"
2014-07-17 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-07-17 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's lower low in the SPX MCO now allows the price action to break our 1950 support level given just last week
2014-07-17 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have enough energy to make it to 1925
2014-07-17 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO also moved to lower lows today
2014-07-17 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this helped in pushing the OEX breadth MCSUM down and through its +1000 level
2014-07-17 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less breaking the rising bottoms line that connected the April and May lows with a nice expansion gap to the downside
2014-07-17 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we got option number 2 from Tuesday's discussion [smile]
2014-07-17 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the OEX 10% Trend has now moved to just below its zero line
2014-07-17 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see a technical bounce here as soon as Friday
2014-07-17 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO moved down and through its zero line today
2014-07-17 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still remains above all of the succeeding bottoms seen on the chart
2014-07-17 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing how the large caps continue to be supported by money flow
2014-07-17 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could, of course, change as soon as Friday
2014-07-17 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's something that's worth noting in that not everything is falling apart right now
2014-07-17 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just that we're going about the business of working off "overbought" readings on a intermediate term basis
2014-07-17 16:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it took both a jet crash and a military invasion to help this along
2014-07-17 16:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the efforts by the buyers fell short yesterday, and just fell apart altogether today
2014-07-17 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO moved sharply lower today after breaking last weeks low point
2014-07-17 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now highly "oversold"
2014-07-17 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where a technical bounce is to be expected by Monday at the latest
2014-07-17 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here
2014-07-17 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the break of the April MCO lows
2014-07-17 16:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices also broke below last weeks low point
2014-07-17 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the expectation of such a break
2014-07-17 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% component also smashed through its zero line today
2014-07-17 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call the MID now on a short term sell signal
2014-07-17 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within the larger context of an intermediate term correctional sequence
2014-07-17 16:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, not surprisingly
2014-07-17 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's break to lower lows in the MCO pushed the MID breadth MCSUM down and through the +500 level
2014-07-17 16:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing how, once again, these 250 multiple levels in the MCSUM tend to accentuate prices in their desired direction
2014-07-17 16:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO barely budged on Wednesday
2014-07-17 16:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was the whisper that the buyers were running out of time to make things go their way
2014-07-17 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was pretty apparent by the overnight direction of prices in Europe
2014-07-17 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it wasn't likely that this basket of stocks was going to be saved
2014-07-17 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it least initially
2014-07-17 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once any support dried up after the first hour
2014-07-17 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the drip, drip, drip...turned into something more
2014-07-17 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Tuesday
2014-07-17 16:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now likely that we'll see a challenge of the 640 level
2014-07-17 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're also aware that with the SML MCO supporting a -94 reading today
2014-07-17 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we get some sort of reflex at the open on Friday
2014-07-17 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to see the SML breadth MCSUM move down and through its zero line on Friday
2014-07-17 16:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be good for another 1%+ move to the downside
2014-07-17 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing constructive there
2014-07-17 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO broke down today as well
2014-07-17 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the 5% Trend was finally able to move down and through its zero line showing that the direction of the TMAD line is now decisively lower
2014-07-17 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooo...
2014-07-17 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately for the bulls
2014-07-17 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their attempt to re-establish their control failed to materialize on a short term trending basis
2014-07-17 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're probably going to see this current correctional sequence extend into mid August
2014-07-17 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: guess the call of a top into the July 4th weekend was the better call after all [smile]
2014-07-17 17:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2014-07-17 17:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a nice structural pattern of lower highs and lows in the XLY breadth MCO
2014-07-17 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% Trend now resting on zero line support
2014-07-17 17:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-07-17 17:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a reflex rally here by Monday
2014-07-17 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what is, overall, a simple attempt by the market to provide a correctional sequence
2014-07-17 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target now is $65.50
2014-07-17 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there is nothing indicating anything more than that
2014-07-17 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely that level will provide our consolidation support
2014-07-17 17:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: classic island reversal on the XLP price chart
2014-07-17 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLP breadth MCO was not able to confirm last weeks price highs
2014-07-17 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went today
2014-07-17 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breaking June MCO support
2014-07-17 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Trend breaking below its zero line
2014-07-17 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the breaking the May/June lows on the XLP breadth MCSUM with a large gap to the downside
2014-07-17 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing the conviction of money moving out of this sector
2014-07-17 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking back at the XLP component chart
2014-07-17 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we haven't really been below the zero line for any length of time since February
2014-07-17 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this basket deserves a rest
2014-07-17 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would appear that this time they're likely to get it
2014-07-17 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good price support here at $44.25
2014-07-17 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call this a hold for now
2014-07-17 17:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: large reversal price bar today in the XLE
2014-07-17 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if everyone rushed to buy the sector
2014-07-17 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then realized that it was a knee jerk reaction of sorts
2014-07-17 17:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the intraday chart for a sec
2014-07-17 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: started weak
2014-07-17 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tried to rally on the plane crash
2014-07-17 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then fell apart once the news about Israel hit the tape
2014-07-17 17:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to trade on fundamentals, isn't it? [smile]
2014-07-17 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-07-17 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to look for continued downside there
2014-07-17 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a likely target of 94 based on last weeks MCO moving to new lows
2014-07-17 17:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components, though remain constructive
2014-07-17 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells you how aggressive money was moving into this sector during its 2nd quarter rally phase
2014-07-17 17:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO remains firm here
2014-07-17 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they're not selling far
2014-07-17 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice though that this weeks attempt by the buyers to snapback to the +1000 level on the XLF breadth MCSUM failed to materialized
2014-07-17 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't be too surprised to see MCSUM support break here by Monday
2014-07-17 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last weeks lack of being able to snapback up to the XLV breadth MCO zero line had its usual effect on prices
2014-07-17 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLV price action moved sharply lower today
2014-07-17 17:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: following the lead of the XLV breadth MCO itself
2014-07-17 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target there is $59.50
2014-07-17 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not a lot damage at this point
2014-07-17 17:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...better to expect a simple snapback to or towards the old price highs than anything more destructive
2014-07-17 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO failed to take out its recent highs
2014-07-17 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back below its zero line it went in a hurry
2014-07-17 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...this sector continues to see good monetary support
2014-07-17 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this should help to cushion any further general market weakness in the Dow Industrials and Transports
2014-07-17 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-07-17 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we came pretty close to diverging today
2014-07-17 17:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the expectation of solid bull divergence isn't anticipated with today's broader technical breakdown
2014-07-17 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO also remains buoyant here
2014-07-17 17:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it will be up to the buyers to continue to defend their territory near term
2014-07-17 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we only saw a zero line snapback with no further strength to carry this MCO back above the zero line
2014-07-17 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also watch the horizontal support lows from May in the XLB breadth MCSUM
2014-07-17 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any break will help to support the expectation of some precious metals weakness over the next couple of days
2014-07-17 17:23:32 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Diverging in XLB or XLI?
2014-07-17 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLI...almost closed below last Thursday's lows
2014-07-17 17:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't have divergence unless we have a point of reference
2014-07-17 17:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2014-07-17 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best and most reliable reference point is daily, close only data
2014-07-17 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday doesn't count
2014-07-17 17:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to compare like periods...when both sides are settled in one point of time
2014-07-17 17:25:52 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK THANKS
2014-07-17 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then
2014-07-17 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only the POTENTIAL for divergence
2014-07-17 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it still needs to be triggered
2014-07-17 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure you've seen many examples where you thought you had good divergence in place between price and an momentum oscillator only to be blown out
2014-07-17 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trigger for such divergences need to take place to confirm the importance of this same divergence
2014-07-17 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK remains buoyant as well
2014-07-17 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we did see a sympathy move by the XLK breadth MCO in moving to lower lows today
2014-07-17 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still remain above the April lows
2014-07-17 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-07-17 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of the XLK MCO components remain above their zero lines
2014-07-17 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing this
2014-07-17 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing how much stronger the NDX is over the NASDAQ
2014-07-17 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this highly suggests that it's the tech stocks in the NDX that are providing this same buoyancy in the pattern
2014-07-17 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you look for those areas in which to exploit
2014-07-17 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-07-17 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when a technical bounce is indicated
2014-07-17 17:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see a bigger bang with the tech sector than we would for any other sector that makes up this index
2014-07-17 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course
2014-07-17 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always a good idea to see how the other sectors are looking too before making such determinations
2014-07-17 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-07-17 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that biotech is heavily weighted in the NDX
2014-07-17 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look at the McClellan data there - one moment
2014-07-17 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well....
2014-07-17 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: biotech just happens to be THE weakest sector in the NDX right now
2014-07-17 17:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're looking to ride a short on any further decay
2014-07-17 17:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be the sector to look at
2014-07-17 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO is also minimally "oversold" now at -50
2014-07-17 17:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a technical bounce there by Monday
2014-07-17 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU is showing a lot of choppy behavior
2014-07-17 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the buyers couldn't regain control back above the XLU breadth MCO zero line
2014-07-17 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the sellers weren't able to drive momentum to lower lows either
2014-07-17 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a bit of a near term indecision there
2014-07-17 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the buyers have the intermediate term power
2014-07-17 17:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so look for any near term surprises there to be to the upside
2014-07-17 17:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-07-17 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after looking at the sectors
2014-07-17 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market isn't as weak as many might think it is right now
2014-07-17 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with several sectors continuing to show good buoyancy
2014-07-17 17:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while a sector like the XLY is taking a more defensive posture based on the overall weakness of the recent data
2014-07-17 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still nothing climactic on the CVI's
2014-07-17 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain neutral...where it looks like the sellers took control today
2014-07-17 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and VTO's are beginning to decay here
2014-07-17 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that any strength realized going into the 1st week of July is now losing steam
2014-07-17 17:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.36
2014-07-17 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2014-07-17 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minimally "oversold" now
2014-07-17 17:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .90
2014-07-17 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing to talk about there
2014-07-17 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now sagging lower to a .95 reading
2014-07-17 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to see better "oversold" readings there before this correction is likely to conclude
2014-07-17 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.05
2014-07-17 17:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2014-07-17 17:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a reading above 1.10 would be preferred for an important bottom
2014-07-17 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooo....
2014-07-17 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to have a mixed market
2014-07-17 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the large caps continue to see support
2014-07-17 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the small caps and secondaries continue to see money flowing out of these issues
2014-07-17 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a near term basis
2014-07-17 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are getting very close to setting our first flag point in the MCO's
2014-07-17 17:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where we'll be able to measure our divergences later on
2014-07-17 17:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point
2014-07-17 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll move to a more defensive posture toward the market
2014-07-17 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where on any reflex rally from here
2014-07-17 17:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will important to separate the be's from the wanna be's
2014-07-17 17:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and start to cull out those issues that begin to show decaying interest
2014-07-17 17:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything that continues to show good strength should be held
2014-07-17 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2014-07-17 17:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at AMZN
2014-07-17 17:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: holding in there
2014-07-17 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected
2014-07-17 17:48:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-07-17 17:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with tech stocks showing good residual strength right now
2014-07-17 17:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eg: MSFT and INTC
2014-07-17 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together
2014-07-17 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a time to have the notion of throwing the baby out with the bath water in a real literal sense
2014-07-17 17:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look at the BETS
2014-07-17 17:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD broke below the 200 day EMA today
2014-07-17 17:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 19 and 39 day EMA's are about to have a negative cross
2014-07-17 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we already knew that earlier because..... ???
2014-07-17 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right...the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is about to move below its zero line
2014-07-17 17:50:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: naz summation at zero
2014-07-17 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2014-07-17 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line moved below its 19 day EMA today for the first time since...
2014-07-17 17:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the middle of April [smile]
2014-07-17 17:51:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2014-07-17 17:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Canada remains very strong here
2014-07-17 17:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which says good things about commodities
2014-07-17 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +45
2014-07-17 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up from +30 on Tuesday
2014-07-17 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a +45
2014-07-17 17:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it holds on Friday
2014-07-17 17:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be "hold with a bullish bias"
2014-07-17 17:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't get too beared up here
2014-07-17 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2014-07-17 17:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it wasn't something economical that caused today's break down
2014-07-17 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a news related event(s) that did so
2014-07-17 17:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though...we do have to acknowledge the weaker degree of strength by the buyers over the last week sure didn't help things
2014-07-17 17:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-07-17 17:54:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Is weekly prices mostly used in spotting divergences?
2014-07-17 17:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can
2014-07-17 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the way I like to look at it is...
2014-07-17 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the time frame
2014-07-17 17:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more time it takes for these same divergences, once they're triggered, to see the desired technical result
2014-07-17 17:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a monthly time frame
2014-07-17 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to wait for the weekly to also diverge
2014-07-17 17:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have to wait for the daily before you'll see anything of technical substance where prices move in the opposite direction
2014-07-17 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so these daily divergences are short term phenomenon in this bigger conceptual context
2014-07-17 17:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course
2014-07-17 17:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also depends on what analytical tool you're using to measure these divergences
2014-07-17 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2014-07-17 17:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their time period setting
2014-07-17 17:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone plays with this dynamic to make things fit
2014-07-17 17:57:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: very very interesting!
2014-07-17 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's far better to be consistent when making such comparisons
2014-07-17 17:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this is my own personal observations
2014-07-17 17:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you think about it
2014-07-17 17:58:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: For myself, I don't know how to trade higher than a daily, due to the short term nature of my trades
2014-07-17 17:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for how many months have you read on message boards on how we've had bearish divergences on the monthly time scale and showing very little money making opportunities from these same divergences?
2014-07-17 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at it another way
2014-07-17 17:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the daily price pattern doesn't make a higher high
2014-07-17 17:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the weekly and monthly patterns have
2014-07-17 18:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of any kind of top, be it an important one or not, is going to be given small odds
2014-07-17 18:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "in theory"
2014-07-17 18:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the monthly tops or bottoms first
2014-07-17 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the weekly
2014-07-17 18:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the daily
2014-07-17 18:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each smaller time period must build on the larger to provide a "change in trend"
2014-07-17 18:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-07-17 18:01:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat:  Thanks Fib..... Spooky. I'm more of a intermediate buy and hold guy
2014-07-17 18:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will bet you a large lunch in a drive through of your choice that the message boards, and financial news shows, will be all giddy about how we have seen a major top because of today's technical breakdown
2014-07-17 18:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will there be any substantive technical evidence of this?
2014-07-17 18:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will it be wishing and hoping
2014-07-17 18:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2014-07-17 18:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sentiment is always an interesting phenomenon
2014-07-17 18:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the large lunch at a drive through of your choice is my bet [smile]
2014-07-17 18:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-07-17 18:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience
2014-07-17 18:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discipline
2014-07-17 18:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw this coming
2014-07-17 18:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market only needed to be pushed
2014-07-17 18:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but one thing's for sure
2014-07-17 18:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take several weeks now to build a new internal bottom
2014-07-17 18:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how this all sorts out
2014-07-17 18:04:34 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: What I like the best is you do not guess just watch and wait for the clues.
2014-07-17 18:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weekend's breadth charts should help to provide guidance
2014-07-17 18:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what any technician should be doing
2014-07-17 18:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not move unless the flow of money is leading it
2014-07-17 18:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyday the market has to prove itself as to its buoyancy
2014-07-17 18:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just take our clues from that
2014-07-17 18:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market continues to unwind
2014-07-17 18:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we change with it
2014-07-17 18:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one should EVER trade the market based on what you "feel"
2014-07-17 18:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only on what the market gives you to work with
2014-07-17 18:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why when a market is trending
2014-07-17 18:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will continue to do so until PROVEN otherwise
2014-07-17 18:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you're not likely to catch the exact top or bottom
2014-07-17 18:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you'll sure to catch the meat of any move the market gives you to work with
2014-07-17 18:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2014-07-17 18:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-07-17 18:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-07-17 18:07:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night!
2014-07-17 18:07:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-07-17 18:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see if we can build some kind of new blueprint for the next month on Tuesday
2014-07-17 18:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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