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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-07-14 15:59:50 fib1618: good day
2015-07-14 15:59:54 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-07-14 16:01:32 fib1618: first off...as a reminder
2015-07-14 16:01:48 fib1618: we will be chatting again tomorrow Wednesday instead of Thursday this week
2015-07-14 16:02:08 fib1618: next week we have a triple chat...Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
2015-07-14 16:02:41 fib1618: OK...now that's out of the way
2015-07-14 16:02:51 fib1618: any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-07-14 16:03:04 rite01 G406: BETS should be up in the last three days....
2015-07-14 16:03:12 fib1618: maybe
2015-07-14 16:03:13 fib1618: remember
2015-07-14 16:03:30 fib1618: that the numbers are based on the position of the cumulative money flow lines in relation to their EMA's
2015-07-14 16:03:57 fib1618: let me check today's number...we were at -45 on Friday
2015-07-14 16:04:00 fib1618: one sec
2015-07-14 16:05:09 fib1618: -30
2015-07-14 16:05:23 fib1618: so a gain of 15 points...not bad
2015-07-14 16:05:29 fib1618: but not quite in cash either
2015-07-14 16:06:26 rite01 G406: OK if it were for local indexes only it would be up higher than that
2015-07-14 16:06:45 fib1618: well...all that's included are Canadian issues
2015-07-14 16:06:48 fib1618: but still
2015-07-14 16:07:19 fib1618: we need those to assure us of underlying liquidity so that the market can not only rise...but trend higher
2015-07-14 16:07:34 fib1618: if you want
2015-07-14 16:07:48 fib1618: I can check it and take away the issues of the north
2015-07-14 16:07:51 fib1618: one sec
2015-07-14 16:08:40 fib1618: one sec
2015-07-14 16:09:05 rite01 G406: I thought you added India
2015-07-14 16:09:31 fib1618: nope
2015-07-14 16:09:59 fib1618: these are the cumulative charts that are posted each weekend...they do not include any foreign issues outside of Canada
2015-07-14 16:10:34 fib1618: it would be +15 - cash
2015-07-14 16:10:49 fib1618: there are 20 cumulative charts
2015-07-14 16:10:55 fib1618: each one counts as 5 points
2015-07-14 16:11:20 fib1618: but they also have to be in proper configurations to be counted
2015-07-14 16:11:36 rite01 G406: That's were I was off
2015-07-14 16:11:53 fib1618: where the money flow line leading the 19 day which is leading the 39 day which is leading the 200 day EMA
2015-07-14 16:12:08 rite01 G406: Thanks
2015-07-14 16:12:08 fib1618: if there is anything different than that, it's not counted
2015-07-14 16:12:25 fib1618: a very simple indicator
2015-07-14 16:12:37 fib1618: just a matter of counting
2015-07-14 16:12:47 rite01 G406: so now I know ....
2015-07-14 16:12:56 fib1618: [smile]
2015-07-14 16:13:06 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-07-14 16:14:07 fib1618: and the first thing we notice is that the NYA price pattern has now fulfilled the technical expectation of a snapback to the trendline that was previously violated
2015-07-14 16:14:29 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-07-14 16:14:37 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2015-07-14 16:14:55 fib1618: we see that it's now at its highest levels since February of this year
2015-07-14 16:15:28 fib1618: when we peaked out with a reading of +49
2015-07-14 16:15:46 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-07-14 16:16:04 fib1618: and we see that we also generated a crossover buy signal today
2015-07-14 16:16:28 fib1618: taken together then
2015-07-14 16:16:41 fib1618: this now secures the price bottom made last week
2015-07-14 16:17:11 fib1618: and no new downside price targets are provided
2015-07-14 16:17:39 fib1618: looking at the 1 year chart of the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2015-07-14 16:18:04 fib1618: and we closed today right at the declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern since the middle of May
2015-07-14 16:18:57 fib1618: so it's not that surprising at all that the MCO is just below the level (+50) where it would take a break above the February highs in order for the MCSUM to actually break above this same declining tops line
2015-07-14 16:19:15 fib1618: given the amplitude of the move so far
2015-07-14 16:19:58 fib1618: we may run out of fuel here and begin to snapback to the MCO zero line as opposed to breaking above the +50 level
2015-07-14 16:20:01 fib1618: but if we do follow through
2015-07-14 16:20:09 fib1618: this would be a highly bullish event
2015-07-14 16:20:43 fib1618: and put us back to where we were expecting some sort of tradable low to come about around the week OPEX back at the end of June
2015-07-14 16:20:59 fib1618: which was subsequently revised to later in the month
2015-07-14 16:21:19 fib1618: but we have learned all too well to not to underestimate the power of this current trend either
2015-07-14 16:21:30 fib1618: but on a reasonable expectation basis
2015-07-14 16:21:41 fib1618: it's time for some sort of back and fill
2015-07-14 16:21:53 fib1618: but we'll see what the Composite has to say about this
2015-07-14 16:22:27 fib1618: and looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-07-14 16:22:35 fib1618: here we did take out the February highs
2015-07-14 16:23:01 fib1618: and also generated a crossover buy signal today on the components
2015-07-14 16:23:07 fib1618: unlike the CO MCO where it did move above the February highs
2015-07-14 16:23:40 fib1618: here the NYSE breadth MCSUM should now be above its declining trendline with this higher point of momentum
2015-07-14 16:23:45 fib1618: and putting ruler to monitor
2015-07-14 16:23:56 fib1618: we see that it did move above this line of negative influence today
2015-07-14 16:24:47 fib1618: and we now rest at the longer term declining trendline from the mid April top in the MCSUM
2015-07-14 16:25:16 fib1618: given that we have already provided enough thrust to penetrate the accelerated line
2015-07-14 16:25:39 fib1618: this next line of resistance should not have that much of an influence on the pattern
2015-07-14 16:25:42 fib1618: and if that's the case
2015-07-14 16:26:04 fib1618: the next upside objective would be our ledge pattern of mid June
2015-07-14 16:26:07 fib1618: but at this point
2015-07-14 16:26:15 fib1618: it looks like the worse is behind us
2015-07-14 16:26:41 rite01 G406: how did you measure this MCSUM declining trend line?  I do not see it?
2015-07-14 16:26:43 fib1618: and that we're now in the process of tying the re-bar in place
2015-07-14 16:27:01 fib1618: so that we can start pouring the concrete for the foundation
2015-07-14 16:27:07 fib1618: there are two lines of negative influence
2015-07-14 16:27:28 fib1618: the accelerated one is late May to mid June
2015-07-14 16:27:51 fib1618: then we have the one that connects between late April and late May
2015-07-14 16:28:25 rite01 G406: Oh two I see now
2015-07-14 16:28:45 rite01 G406: I was trying to come at it in February
2015-07-14 16:28:51 fib1618: let me post a chart for clarity
2015-07-14 16:29:40 fib1618: http://technicalwatch.com/chat15/nyad071415.png
2015-07-14 16:30:07 fib1618: it shows the longer and stronger line of resistance on the NYSI
2015-07-14 16:30:17 rite01 G406: Thanks again
2015-07-14 16:30:38 fib1618: we'll also note the double bull divergence that we talked about last week in the MCO
2015-07-14 16:31:15 fib1618: and that the NYAD line also penetrated its declining tops line today
2015-07-14 16:31:30 fib1618: let's also point out
2015-07-14 16:31:37 fib1618: how the 19 day EMA has now turned up on the chart
2015-07-14 16:31:51 fib1618: but we already knew this before I posted the chart because.....?
2015-07-14 16:32:24 rite01 G406: the components and MCO
2015-07-14 16:32:27 fib1618: the 10% component is above its zero line
2015-07-14 16:32:34 fib1618: there you go
2015-07-14 16:32:37 fib1618: again
2015-07-14 16:32:53 fib1618: depending on which side the components are in relation to the zero line tells us in what direction the EMA's are moving
2015-07-14 16:33:07 fib1618: so if we have a crossover buy right now
2015-07-14 16:33:17 fib1618: it would mean that both EMA's are rising
2015-07-14 16:33:34 fib1618: and that the 10% Component is not only leading in this direction
2015-07-14 16:33:49 fib1618: but it's moving up at an increased rate than that of the 5%
2015-07-14 16:34:07 fib1618: in the current case
2015-07-14 16:34:27 fib1618: the 10% NYSE MCO component has a reading of +57
2015-07-14 16:34:36 fib1618: or it's moving at 57 MPH higher
2015-07-14 16:35:03 fib1618: the 5% NYSE MCO component (the 39 day EMA) has a reading of +10
2015-07-14 16:35:14 fib1618: or moving higher (because it's above the zero line) at only 10 MPH
2015-07-14 16:35:23 fib1618: the quicker the speed
2015-07-14 16:35:28 fib1618: the faster money is moving
2015-07-14 16:35:37 fib1618: keep this stuff really simple
2015-07-14 16:36:03 fib1618: back to the NYSE Composite MCO
2015-07-14 16:36:32 fib1618: and we see that it's now at its highest level since November of last year with a +47 reading
2015-07-14 16:36:53 fib1618: with natural resistance coming at the +50 level
2015-07-14 16:37:26 fib1618: it wouldn't then be too surprising to see the heavy foot of short covering ease off on the accelerator pedal near term
2015-07-14 16:37:45 fib1618: this would also give the components a chance to snapback to or toward their line of neutrality
2015-07-14 16:38:04 fib1618: before, once again, attempting to "punch the engine" again
2015-07-14 16:38:49 fib1618: moving on to the NASDAQ
2015-07-14 16:39:36 fib1618: and here we see that the NASDAQ breadth MCO has now moved from a reading of -63 to a +30 today
2015-07-14 16:40:14 fib1618: that's 90 data points of improvement in less than a week's time
2015-07-14 16:40:36 fib1618: which tends to be unsustainable
2015-07-14 16:41:27 fib1618: given that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM has now fulfilled its snapback to the -200 level
2015-07-14 16:41:58 fib1618: it might be time for a brief rest to "take a look around" and see what's been accomplished
2015-07-14 16:42:17 fib1618: this would mean, of course, a day or two of snapping back toward the NASDAQ breadth MCO's zero line
2015-07-14 16:43:35 fib1618: also of note here is that we did produce enough upside energy now to secure the price bottom of last week at 4900
2015-07-14 16:44:01 fib1618: so the trading range remains our best interpretative pattern for prices...at least for now
2015-07-14 16:44:43 fib1618: the NAAD line shows this radical behavior of late...
2015-07-14 16:44:50 fib1618: give me a moment and I'll post the chart
2015-07-14 16:46:41 fib1618: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat15/naad071415.png
2015-07-14 16:47:13 fib1618: the important thing we can take from this
2015-07-14 16:47:30 fib1618: is that the rally failure highs seen on the chart of the MCO have now been taken out
2015-07-14 16:48:11 fib1618: and this provides the analytical substance that last weeks lows in prices are here to stay until an equal and opposite force is applied
2015-07-14 16:48:19 fib1618: which isn't likely until next week
2015-07-14 16:48:52 fib1618: anyway
2015-07-14 16:49:37 fib1618: the NAAD combo chart makes it very clear that there is still a whole lot of work to do by the buyers before they can breath any semblance of a sigh of relief
2015-07-14 16:50:17 fib1618: this is where the adage "until proven otherwise" has its greatest weight
2015-07-14 16:50:59 fib1618: oh...and the NASDAQ price action has also completed a simple snapback to the old rising trendline today
2015-07-14 16:51:10 fib1618: so, once again, a good place to take a pause
2015-07-14 16:51:27 rite01 G406: do you think it will be next week before the recent price gap will be filled?
2015-07-14 16:51:52 fib1618: I don't know if it will
2015-07-14 16:51:56 fib1618: at this point
2015-07-14 16:52:07 fib1618: there's been enough fuel to keep prices from sagging lower
2015-07-14 16:52:24 fib1618: so any pause here might only provide a compressed range within a range
2015-07-14 16:52:45 fib1618: with Monday's gap providing support of this same range
2015-07-14 16:53:03 rite01 G406: What does OPEX have to do with this again?
2015-07-14 16:53:13 fib1618: well...
2015-07-14 16:53:18 fib1618: nothing directly
2015-07-14 16:53:22 fib1618: it's more of a timing thing
2015-07-14 16:53:31 fib1618: we have to allow enough time for things to work
2015-07-14 16:53:45 fib1618: as you have noticed over the months you've been here
2015-07-14 16:54:13 fib1618: it takes a good amount of time for the MCSUM to travel from one 250 increment to the next
2015-07-14 16:54:20 fib1618: usually these take about a week
2015-07-14 16:54:24 fib1618: on average
2015-07-14 16:54:27 fib1618: in that week
2015-07-14 16:54:56 fib1618: and depending on the interplay between the short term traders (the MCO) and the intermediate term traders (the MCSUM)
2015-07-14 16:55:24 fib1618: this can either increase or decrease the time it takes to reach these same plateaus
2015-07-14 16:56:16 fib1618: our expectation last week of a price bottom (Tuesday) provided the expectation that we were likely to find enough underlying support by the middle of this week
2015-07-14 16:56:31 fib1618: but when we saw our capitulation on Wednesday
2015-07-14 16:56:41 fib1618: this extended the time axis out that many more days
2015-07-14 16:56:53 fib1618: it just so happens that it's the 3rd Friday of this month
2015-07-14 16:57:15 fib1618: but it easily could had been the 4th Tuesday
2015-07-14 16:57:25 fib1618: but as we have also noticed over the years
2015-07-14 16:58:28 fib1618: that prices pattern sequences have very definite rhythms to them that tend to gravitate toward the expiration of highly leverage products
2015-07-14 16:58:40 fib1618: because of this
2015-07-14 16:59:14 fib1618: and taking into account the natural rhythm it takes for money to "make a difference" as to the probable direction of prices
2015-07-14 16:59:55 fib1618: we can then provide our blueprint, or road map, on what we should expect to happen with all things being equal
2015-07-14 17:00:02 rite01 G406: Great insight..  please continue on :blush:
2015-07-14 17:00:29 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-07-14 17:00:35 fib1618: and here we have come to the +75 level
2015-07-14 17:01:16 fib1618: which provides us with the "insight" that there is enough fuel that has come in over and above any short covering that provided the initial "lift" in prices
2015-07-14 17:01:33 fib1618: and with this break above +50
2015-07-14 17:01:57 fib1618: then the NDX breadth MCSUM should had broken above its declining tops line
2015-07-14 17:02:02 fib1618: and taking ruler to monitor
2015-07-14 17:02:08 fib1618: we see that it did so today
2015-07-14 17:02:36 fib1618: we also have a crossover buy signal today in the NDX components
2015-07-14 17:03:17 fib1618: so we can now expect that we'll likely see a successful challenge of the mid June highs in the MCSUM
2015-07-14 17:03:29 fib1618: and a complete snapback to the zero line is likely over the next week or so
2015-07-14 17:04:14 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO has now provided its largest breadth thrust since last October
2015-07-14 17:04:22 fib1618: and it's now at the highest levels since November
2015-07-14 17:04:32 fib1618: which just goes to show
2015-07-14 17:04:49 fib1618: you should never discount those times when you see divergence in the MCO against prices
2015-07-14 17:05:19 fib1618: with this near term reversal now in the internals
2015-07-14 17:05:34 fib1618: a challenge of the all time price highs is likely in the next couple of days
2015-07-14 17:06:21 fib1618: the only question now is whether the buyers will have continued support by other traders to really kick this thing into high gear or not
2015-07-14 17:06:24 fib1618: remember
2015-07-14 17:06:41 fib1618: we had TWO days in the last 10 where the NYSE TRIN was above 2.00
2015-07-14 17:07:00 fib1618: this is very powerful information for it tells us that those who wanted to sell did so
2015-07-14 17:07:18 fib1618: and since there isn't anyone left to sell...prices rise on their own accord
2015-07-14 17:07:38 fib1618: until they get to a point where others join in to keep the ball rolling
2015-07-14 17:07:48 fib1618: given the very negative sentiment of last week
2015-07-14 17:08:08 fib1618: we have all the ingredients of a major advance upon us
2015-07-14 17:08:11 fib1618: but at this point
2015-07-14 17:08:55 fib1618: we still need a little more time to construct a base that would be strong enough to keep things from falling over and failing
2015-07-14 17:08:59 fib1618: so there's no rush here
2015-07-14 17:09:09 fib1618: especially if volume is still weak here
2015-07-14 17:09:15 fib1618: we'll look at that in a moment
2015-07-14 17:11:22 fib1618: moving to the OEX
2015-07-14 17:11:46 fib1618: and here we see another large breadth thrust
2015-07-14 17:12:08 fib1618: which has triggered our bullish divergence structure from last week
2015-07-14 17:12:31 fib1618: because of this
2015-07-14 17:12:56 fib1618: we should see the OEX breadth MCSUM move up and through its zero line sooner than later
2015-07-14 17:13:17 fib1618: and once that's accomplished
2015-07-14 17:13:31 fib1618: only then will the price action be able to stay in new all time territory
2015-07-14 17:13:48 fib1618: for now...a challenge of the all time highs is expected
2015-07-14 17:14:14 fib1618: breadth thrust in the Dow breadth MCO as well
2015-07-14 17:15:03 fib1618: so all those issues where we were having problems with the Greece situation...those of multi national companies...because of the clarity of the new arrangement...money is free to move back in at an accelerated rate
2015-07-14 17:15:09 fib1618: not surprising
2015-07-14 17:15:37 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO is now back to its highest level since mid February
2015-07-14 17:15:56 fib1618: and unless there's a large pullback on Wednesday
2015-07-14 17:16:08 fib1618: we should see the MID breadth MCSUM move up and through its zero line tomorrow
2015-07-14 17:16:26 fib1618: and with that
2015-07-14 17:16:34 fib1618: an increase in the chance of seeing new all time price highs
2015-07-14 17:16:56 fib1618: now we come to the SML breadth MCO
2015-07-14 17:17:17 fib1618: and here we're not at all seeing the same kind of strength that we are seeing in the large caps
2015-07-14 17:17:18 fib1618: then again
2015-07-14 17:17:39 fib1618: it was this index that continued to hold on during the time in which the large caps were being shun
2015-07-14 17:18:14 fib1618: so this tells us, without any kind of guess work, that a lot of the money that moved out of the large caps STAYED in the market and moved into the small caps
2015-07-14 17:18:18 fib1618: and now...
2015-07-14 17:18:25 fib1618: it's moving back into the large caps again
2015-07-14 17:18:31 fib1618: what the bulls need now then
2015-07-14 17:18:40 fib1618: is for some uniformity
2015-07-14 17:18:50 fib1618: something of which we've talking about now for the last couple of weeks
2015-07-14 17:19:04 fib1618: now...the tables have turned on who has the power
2015-07-14 17:19:12 fib1618: but we're still not in total sync yet
2015-07-14 17:19:16 fib1618: and until this happens
2015-07-14 17:19:27 fib1618: we're going to continue to see a lot of choppy, volatile action though now it's being slanted toward the bullish side of the equation
2015-07-14 17:20:18 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO is now at its highest level since February
2015-07-14 17:20:50 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal on the components by the slimiest of margins
2015-07-14 17:20:57 fib1618: so not a lot to claim a turnaround
2015-07-14 17:21:07 fib1618: but enough to put a dagger in the heart of the bear
2015-07-14 17:21:20 fib1618: as the sellers gave up...again
2015-07-14 17:21:36 fib1618: and the longer term direction of least resistance, once again, took over
2015-07-14 17:22:01 fib1618: mighty tough to keep a basketball below the water line in the deep end of the pool without constant pressure, isn't it?
2015-07-14 17:22:46 fib1618: a quickie look at the sector charts
2015-07-14 17:22:58 fib1618: and we see new all time price highs in both the XLY and XLP
2015-07-14 17:23:26 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO followed through on its textured structure from last Thursday and has now moved sharply higher
2015-07-14 17:23:31 fib1618: time to cover shorts there
2015-07-14 17:23:57 fib1618: the rally here was definitely broad based
2015-07-14 17:24:05 fib1618: which isn't good news for the bears
2015-07-14 17:24:15 fib1618: holy moly!
2015-07-14 17:24:22 fib1618: look at the XLV
2015-07-14 17:24:37 fib1618: solid long there
2015-07-14 17:25:07 fib1618: XLU having its problems though
2015-07-14 17:25:18 fib1618: we'll look at these in greater detail tomorrow
2015-07-14 17:25:32 fib1618: on to the volume McClellan's
2015-07-14 17:26:02 fib1618: and we got both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's racing higher now
2015-07-14 17:26:19 fib1618: as they have more than made up for their lack of participation from last week
2015-07-14 17:26:22 fib1618: wow..
2015-07-14 17:26:24 fib1618: overwhelming
2015-07-14 17:27:01 fib1618: the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's are giving a split decision
2015-07-14 17:27:19 fib1618: with the top 100 leading the charge...at least for now
2015-07-14 17:27:53 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO is in solid agreement with its breadth cousin
2015-07-14 17:28:18 fib1618: so is the OEX volume MCO
2015-07-14 17:28:38 fib1618: and the Dow volume MCO
2015-07-14 17:29:05 fib1618: but notice that we're still well below the zero line in all three in the volume MCSUM's
2015-07-14 17:29:36 fib1618: so prices are going have a hard time moving without the help of constant buying here
2015-07-14 17:29:50 fib1618: as there is no upside momentum to work from at this point in time
2015-07-14 17:30:28 fib1618: the MID volume MCO is complimenting the amplitude we saw in the MID breadth MCO
2015-07-14 17:30:53 fib1618: as is the SML volume MCO...both are still lagging higher here
2015-07-14 17:31:09 fib1618: but they're not being left behind either
2015-07-14 17:31:26 rite01 G406: But we are real close on all MCSUM just a day or two on spx oex and dow
2015-07-14 17:31:46 fib1618: and some good follow through buying is being shown in the TM volume MCO
2015-07-14 17:31:47 rite01 G406: doesn't that count for something?
2015-07-14 17:32:06 fib1618: but it's still not enough at this stage to allow the price pattern to "impulse"
2015-07-14 17:32:14 fib1618: sure it counts...everything counts
2015-07-14 17:32:25 fib1618: but that's not confirmed
2015-07-14 17:32:30 fib1618: you can't lead off on that
2015-07-14 17:32:43 fib1618: since we have too many discrepancies right now
2015-07-14 17:33:02 fib1618: remember that we had a couple of MCO's making lower lows last week while the majors were diverging
2015-07-14 17:33:20 fib1618: so we're gong to need more time in order to get our ducks in order
2015-07-14 17:33:22 fib1618: until then
2015-07-14 17:33:31 fib1618: we can move and challenge the highs of May/June
2015-07-14 17:33:47 fib1618: but we're not likely to to move much above this level until we get complete uniformity
2015-07-14 17:33:54 rite01 G406: thanks for reminding just getting antsy...
2015-07-14 17:33:57 fib1618: and for those that made new lows
2015-07-14 17:34:02 fib1618: it's just a matter of time
2015-07-14 17:34:19 fib1618: and not necessarily a matter of testing the price lows that came last week...like we see in triangles
2015-07-14 17:34:33 fib1618: it's good to keep in mind that corrections can happen one of three ways
2015-07-14 17:34:36 fib1618: by price
2015-07-14 17:34:38 fib1618: by time
2015-07-14 17:34:40 fib1618: or by both price and time
2015-07-14 17:34:58 fib1618: if price did not generate divergence
2015-07-14 17:35:25 fib1618: it takes time for this lack of supply and DEMAND factor to work itself off in a different fashion
2015-07-14 17:35:28 fib1618: otherwise
2015-07-14 17:35:38 fib1618: the market throws this out
2015-07-14 17:35:42 fib1618: and capitulates
2015-07-14 17:35:47 fib1618: just like we saw last week
2015-07-14 17:36:03 fib1618: these capitulations are referred to as "resets"
2015-07-14 17:36:21 fib1618: where the market moves in extremes in unison
2015-07-14 17:36:31 fib1618: from where it has a new start
2015-07-14 17:36:36 fib1618: a reset...to start again
2015-07-14 17:37:07 fib1618: this is why we had the expectation 2 weeks ago that something like last Tuesday/Wednesday would need to happen before the ship was righted
2015-07-14 17:37:22 fib1618: as too many oscillators were not showing like structures
2015-07-14 17:38:05 fib1618: remember how the majority was looking for a crash last week?
2015-07-14 17:38:16 rite01 G406: yes
2015-07-14 17:38:17 fib1618: anytime this comes up
2015-07-14 17:38:26 fib1618: then you KNOW you're close to a turning point
2015-07-14 17:38:32 rite01 G406: sure did
2015-07-14 17:38:32 fib1618: and with the NYSE TRIN at 3.23 on Wednesday
2015-07-14 17:38:47 fib1618: you have technical confirmation of something like this was about to take place
2015-07-14 17:39:03 fib1618: maybe not the next day
2015-07-14 17:39:04 fib1618: but soon
2015-07-14 17:39:30 fib1618: remember that we had the NYSE, NASDAQ and TM TRIN's all above 2.00 the week before?
2015-07-14 17:39:52 fib1618: we looked at the 1 year chart and noted that this tends to come at or near important price bottoms
2015-07-14 17:40:00 fib1618: this time around though
2015-07-14 17:40:35 fib1618: we had the play of the modern day "Greek Tragedy" going on
2015-07-14 17:40:48 fib1618: and only ACT 2 was complete
2015-07-14 17:41:23 fib1618: last Wednesday was part of Act 3....with yesterday's agreement the final scene 4
2015-07-14 17:41:33 fib1618: human beings are so predicable
2015-07-14 17:41:53 fib1618: especially when they're panicking
2015-07-14 17:42:13 fib1618: and then panic only when they have no control or don't understand the problem
2015-07-14 17:42:27 fib1618: <shrug>
2015-07-14 17:42:32 fib1618: it's what makes the markets and it's our job to exploit this when we can
2015-07-14 17:42:43 fib1618: moving to the OBV data
2015-07-14 17:43:23 fib1618: and we see that the OEX and Dow CVI's are now climactic
2015-07-14 17:43:56 fib1618: the STVO's are minimally "overbought"
2015-07-14 17:44:02 fib1618: and the VTO's are close to neutral
2015-07-14 17:44:04 fib1618: although
2015-07-14 17:44:33 fib1618: the NDX still has a bit more fuel to spend before we see a chance of it turning over
2015-07-14 17:44:52 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .74
2015-07-14 17:44:56 fib1618: so a lot of buying today
2015-07-14 17:45:16 fib1618: Open 10 now back just below minimally "oversold" at .98
2015-07-14 17:45:21 fib1618: nice and steady there
2015-07-14 17:45:38 fib1618: with the 3.23 reading keeping things from being more neutral right now
2015-07-14 17:45:52 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .90
2015-07-14 17:46:06 fib1618: Open 10 also at .98
2015-07-14 17:46:13 fib1618: moving in sync now
2015-07-14 17:46:24 fib1618: TM TRIN at .85
2015-07-14 17:46:45 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2015-07-14 17:46:49 fib1618: so...
2015-07-14 17:47:19 fib1618: our expected relief rally is probably close to completion here
2015-07-14 17:47:22 fib1618: but in its wake
2015-07-14 17:47:38 fib1618: we have seen a tremendous amount of money moving back into the markets
2015-07-14 17:47:40 fib1618: so much so
2015-07-14 17:48:07 fib1618: that last weeks price lows should provide strong support moving forward
2015-07-14 17:48:12 fib1618: and where
2015-07-14 17:48:42 fib1618: we're now in the process of building enough of a foundation to where prices can try again to break out of their multi month ranges
2015-07-14 17:49:05 fib1618: we checked the BETS earlier...and it was at a -30
2015-07-14 17:49:28 fib1618: so until we start seeing at least a "cash position" call in this intermediate term indicator
2015-07-14 17:49:56 rite01 G406: Marty's simple Breadth Thrust below .40 just 5 days ago and close .55 today
2015-07-14 17:50:09 fib1618: better to do some homework right now in making a shopping list of products that can take advantage of a possible upside breakout
2015-07-14 17:50:17 fib1618: really?
2015-07-14 17:50:19 fib1618: let me check
2015-07-14 17:52:02 fib1618: SMA at 39.50 on the 8th
2015-07-14 17:52:21 fib1618: EMA at 41.50
2015-07-14 17:52:35 fib1618: so...let's see what the countdown would be
2015-07-14 17:52:50 fib1618: day 10 would be July 22nd
2015-07-14 17:53:01 fib1618: why does that date sound familiar?
2015-07-14 17:53:18 fib1618: something else going on?
2015-07-14 17:53:31 fib1618: must be me
2015-07-14 17:53:37 fib1618: anyway...day 10 is 7/22
2015-07-14 17:53:47 fib1618: so if we can get above 61.50%
2015-07-14 17:53:54 fib1618: then we have an SML buy signal
2015-07-14 17:54:28 fib1618: and being at 55% now
2015-07-14 17:54:32 fib1618: makes it doable
2015-07-14 17:54:45 fib1618: we'll know by the end of the week
2015-07-14 17:54:52 fib1618: anything else?
2015-07-14 17:57:36 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-07-14 17:57:44 fib1618: I'm going to watch the All Star Game
2015-07-14 17:57:51 fib1618: everyone have a good evening
2015-07-14 17:57:57 rite01 G406: hope your team wins
2015-07-14 17:58:05 fib1618: and we'll do this all again in less than 23 hours
2015-07-14 17:58:08 fib1618: good night



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