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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2014-07-10 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-07-10 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-07-10 16:00:17 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great
2014-07-10 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-07-10 16:02:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Cumulative charts what is the DPMI number?
2014-07-10 16:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the cums? there is none...those are mine! [smile]
2014-07-10 16:03:55 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I thought last time you said to review these to see what you were referring to.
2014-07-10 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...the weekend updates?
2014-07-10 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can find those at http://www.technicalwatch.com/cum14/cum070414.htm
2014-07-10 16:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check the link now
2014-07-10 16:05:22 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Of course... Thanks should have know
2014-07-10 16:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see if I remembered it correctly
2014-07-10 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the link doesn't work
2014-07-10 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just go to the TW message board and look up the last cum post on the main board
2014-07-10 16:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we go
2014-07-10 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a feeble attempt to snapback towards the zero line on Wednesday
2014-07-10 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved lower again today
2014-07-10 16:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and made a lower low in the process
2014-07-10 16:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lower low pushed the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM below its first area of horizontal support seen on the chart
2014-07-10 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a large gap to the downside confirming the break of this same support
2014-07-10 16:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the -51 reading
2014-07-10 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCO is now minimally "oversold"
2014-07-10 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 10% Trend also breaking below its zero line
2014-07-10 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising to see another obligatory bounce as soon as Friday
2014-07-10 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the 10% to snapback toward this same zero line
2014-07-10 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-07-10 16:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the "flag" lows of mid April remain unbroken
2014-07-10 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be no additional downside price targets given
2014-07-10 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price action today
2014-07-10 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have met the minimal downside target that was given on Tuesday
2014-07-10 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and saw a sharp reversal from this same area of support
2014-07-10 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the intraday highs up against the 20 day EMA of the NYA price chart
2014-07-10 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to wait and see if the buyers are able to re-establish prices above this same EMA trend
2014-07-10 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-07-10 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see an echo of the pattern laid out by the CO data
2014-07-10 16:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we closed a bit higher than the commons at a -45
2014-07-10 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing, once again, that any selling in the interest rate sensitive basket of issues is starting to wane
2014-07-10 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components here
2014-07-10 16:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both the 10% and 5% remain above their zero line
2014-07-10 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we continue to work with a corrective sequence in the pattern
2014-07-10 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the CO MCO, the Composite MCO is also holding above the important mid April lows
2014-07-10 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues
2014-07-10 16:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this correctional process will likely be shorter than most believe at this juncture
2014-07-10 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-07-10 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will tend to stay near their all time levels during this same pause to refresh
2014-07-10 16:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO continued lower today
2014-07-10 16:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it took out its mid May divergent lows in the process
2014-07-10 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now opens the door for a new downside retracement target of 4300
2014-07-10 16:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about on Tuesday
2014-07-10 16:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely to happen until sometime next week
2014-07-10 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though
2014-07-10 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of -45
2014-07-10 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices bouncing as it hit horizontal support
2014-07-10 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less...fulfilling a simple snapback to the old recovery high point of March
2014-07-10 16:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see some nice follow through action to the upside near term
2014-07-10 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls continue to hold control of the cards on an intermediate term basis
2014-07-10 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and technically speaking
2014-07-10 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCO and its components both below their zero lines
2014-07-10 16:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can say that the sellers now have control of the action on a short term trending basis
2014-07-10 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also moved lower today
2014-07-10 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now challenging the lows of mid May
2014-07-10 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components here also remain in positive territory
2014-07-10 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call the top 100 stocks in the NASDAQ as still being positive
2014-07-10 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved sharply lower today
2014-07-10 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it remains above its mid May lows
2014-07-10 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components are also above their zero lines
2014-07-10 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's lower low reading in the SPX breadth MCO was what was needed for the SPX breadth MCSUM to break its short term horizontal support as well
2014-07-10 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX itself came within 3 points of reaching the downside price target of 1950 that was given on Tuesday
2014-07-10 16:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any positive close on Friday will allow prices to chop around the 1970-1980 level though next Tuesday
2014-07-10 16:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the texture in the MCO data right now is nice and smooth as well
2014-07-10 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's an advantage as to how we can pin point the probable ebb and flow of this same correction
2014-07-10 16:32:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Texture?
2014-07-10 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm...yea
2014-07-10 16:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to knowing if one side has control or not
2014-07-10 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the way the MCO moves above and below the zero line
2014-07-10 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the moves have no "up-down" movements (bottom above bottom...top beneath top)
2014-07-10 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than that side has little control of the action
2014-07-10 16:33:22 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: How close it stay to the 0 line
2014-07-10 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and price moves more emotionally based than that of trending
2014-07-10 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2014-07-10 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-07-10 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take a look at the April period on the SPX breadth MCO
2014-07-10 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that the there was only one stopping point from the end of March to the middle part of April
2014-07-10 16:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this shows you that one side was able to move the market briskly
2014-07-10 16:35:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-07-10 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then lost the ball and the other side recovered the fumble just as quickly
2014-07-10 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it then moved equally in the opposite direction
2014-07-10 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if you look at the end of June
2014-07-10 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that the moves were compact and zigzagged higher
2014-07-10 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this showed that the buyers were in control
2014-07-10 16:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: albeit
2014-07-10 16:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't enough overall strength to keep the ball rolling
2014-07-10 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-07-10 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this up/down movement is what is refereed as "texture" in the pattern
2014-07-10 16:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more test and retest there is
2014-07-10 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more likely the prevailing trend is able to be maintained
2014-07-10 16:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that price movements in the opposite direction will tend to be short and shallow
2014-07-10 16:37:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Never looked at it quite that way. Thank You
2014-07-10 16:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are so many nuances that you will be introduced to
2014-07-10 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2014-07-10 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slapping up a chart and saying that it's bearish or bullish is more in keeping of looking at "something taking place and then wondering if it will work in theory" [smile]
2014-07-10 16:39:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-07-10 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not move in one direction or the other without the flow of money leading its direction on a trending basis
2014-07-10 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by knowing how much money there is, and then measuring its velocity, you can then be more at ease in your trading
2014-07-10 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is...
2014-07-10 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as you respect and follow what the data is telling you
2014-07-10 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of what you may "feel" and are being told by others
2014-07-10 16:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the OEX and Dow breadth MCO's continue to hold up nicely right now
2014-07-10 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any money coming out of the secondaries seems to be rotating into the large caps
2014-07-10 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not leaving the casino floor
2014-07-10 16:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows as well in the MID breadth MCO
2014-07-10 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here too
2014-07-10 16:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have only taken out the mid May lows by a slim margin
2014-07-10 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll allow for some further price decay to the 1400 level because of this
2014-07-10 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too
2014-07-10 16:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that today's lower low was the catalyst in pushing the MID breadth MCSUM below its horizontal support
2014-07-10 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it must all work together to achieve a specific goal
2014-07-10 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a -62 reading
2014-07-10 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can expect some sort of snapback to begin at anytime here
2014-07-10 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO came in with a -55 reading today
2014-07-10 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's also minimally "oversold" now
2014-07-10 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 5% Trend at its zero line
2014-07-10 16:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation is for another bounce attempt to take place near term
2014-07-10 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in all cases so far
2014-07-10 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is now important that any reflex that we see from this juncture will only mean something if we're able to take out yesterday's "blip resistance" area
2014-07-10 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both downside price targets on the SML have now been met as well
2014-07-10 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for you Elliottician's out there
2014-07-10 16:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we have a simple 5 down now from last Friday's highs
2014-07-10 16:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...
2014-07-10 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make that from the reversal bar from the Wednesday before
2014-07-10 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Friday after that was 2
2014-07-10 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 down
2014-07-10 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4 was a quickie yesterday
2014-07-10 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's 5
2014-07-10 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe part of a bigger "A"
2014-07-10 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least it has the right look
2014-07-10 16:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2014-07-10 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a bounce higher as soon as Friday
2014-07-10 16:48:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-07-10 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we close above Wednesday's highs on Friday
2014-07-10 16:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would pretty much confirm a counter trend move
2014-07-10 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call that "B"
2014-07-10 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2014-07-10 16:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this one Lew?
2014-07-10 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "A" was the end of June
2014-07-10 16:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reversal bar was the top of B
2014-07-10 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went into C...irregular flat?
2014-07-10 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO isn't confirming it though
2014-07-10 16:50:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: could be, considering the state of the market
2014-07-10 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but fun for discussion
2014-07-10 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...could be
2014-07-10 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we all know in here
2014-07-10 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we can not under estimate the underlying strength of this market
2014-07-10 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many have been killed thinking otherwise
2014-07-10 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bears are getting pretty bold in their rhetoric
2014-07-10 16:51:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope, and an irregular would be the strongest way to correct, no?
2014-07-10 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would imply that the trend if very strong
2014-07-10 16:52:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-07-10 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the only way to shake the tree is to...
2014-07-10 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pause...
2014-07-10 16:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see a rally failure
2014-07-10 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slam lower
2014-07-10 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tree would be shaken (not stirred)
2014-07-10 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we go again
2014-07-10 16:52:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2014-07-10 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but alas
2014-07-10 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have a lot of information suggesting that we're likely to retest today's lows first
2014-07-10 16:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but who knows...we've seen stranger things in the last 2 years
2014-07-10 16:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can never quite trust a price pattern that has an angle of greater than 45 degrees
2014-07-10 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2014-07-10 16:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though I would love to see a little more backing and filling to pick up some deals
2014-07-10 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO moved to lower lows as well
2014-07-10 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above the mid April lows
2014-07-10 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's important to know here is that
2014-07-10 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the April MCO lows are taken out
2014-07-10 16:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would then open the door for prices to retrace all the way back to that same starting point
2014-07-10 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, for the Wilshire 5000, would be at the 20,000 level
2014-07-10 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I still think it's bizarre to mention the Wilshire and 20,000 in the same breath)
2014-07-10 16:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo...
2014-07-10 16:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our new blueprint from Tuesday worked out nicely over the last couple of days
2014-07-10 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our reflex bounce on Wednesday
2014-07-10 16:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when the bounce was muted
2014-07-10 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers again took possession and pushed prices to or at their downside targets given by Tuesday's MCO breakdowns
2014-07-10 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-07-10 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the buyers will likely see a better attempt to regain control as soon as Friday
2014-07-10 16:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that we just finished this month's WWW
2014-07-10 16:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that OPEX is next Friday
2014-07-10 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the low ISEE numbers on Tuesday
2014-07-10 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be usual and customary for the put buyers to be spanked, yet again, for picking up those speculative options with only 1 week to go
2014-07-10 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also compliments our initial thought of a trading range during this corrective process
2014-07-10 17:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2014-07-10 17:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the XLY breadth MCO snapped back above its zero line on Wednesday
2014-07-10 17:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only to move to lower lows today
2014-07-10 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this MCO still above its May lows
2014-07-10 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the components
2014-07-10 17:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the the XLY breadth MCSUM still above the +1000 level
2014-07-10 17:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call the last couple days of price action as a simple snapback to what were the old all time highs
2014-07-10 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any move back above the 67.80 level an "add signal"
2014-07-10 17:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at my standard settings price chart on this
2014-07-10 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intraday price low here was 66.81
2014-07-10 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 20 day EMA was at 66.80
2014-07-10 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a nice test of support
2014-07-10 17:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any carry through would be a continuation signal for this basket of stocks
2014-07-10 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO continues to suggest solid buy support right now
2014-07-10 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though after we did bounce off the zero line earlier in the week
2014-07-10 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers provided more of imbalance to their side today
2014-07-10 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any near term strength then
2014-07-10 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will probably push prices back into new all time high territory
2014-07-10 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain friendly toward this basket...at least for now
2014-07-10 17:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO moved to its lowest levels in 6 months today
2014-07-10 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breaking all of the horizontal support seen during this time
2014-07-10 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would now confirm that the rising trend from the February period is now complete
2014-07-10 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it met the upside target that was given on its initial breakout back in March of $100 a share
2014-07-10 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice run...to be sure
2014-07-10 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern wise
2014-07-10 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now seeing the rounding top formation that was expected with last weeks review
2014-07-10 17:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the lower lows in the MCO
2014-07-10 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now clears the deck for a move to the first area of pattern support at the 94 level
2014-07-10 17:09:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I wonder if that's why the airlines don't look bad...
2014-07-10 17:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, once met, we'll then see prices moving back into new all time high territory as the XLE breadth MCSUM finds support
2014-07-10 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and starts its divergent dance with prices
2014-07-10 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not LEW
2014-07-10 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it depends on each airline
2014-07-10 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in how much leverage in futures market they take to off set any higher fuel costs
2014-07-10 17:10:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2014-07-10 17:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Southwest is the king when it comes to that kind of thing
2014-07-10 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why it's doubled in price
2014-07-10 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as long as the airlines off set their costs by using futures positions
2014-07-10 17:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they'll be fine
2014-07-10 17:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2014-07-10 17:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they'll charge for something else that we can't live without
2014-07-10 17:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like...maybe they'll take a stand like Ryan Air has in England by charging to use the bathrooms on board
2014-07-10 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [frown]
2014-07-10 17:11:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: extras bag to Glasgow cost me a hundred-boo
2014-07-10 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's ridiculous
2014-07-10 17:12:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-07-10 17:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's how you get around it
2014-07-10 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is for smaller trips
2014-07-10 17:12:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I left it there-cheaper to buy a new bag, LOL
2014-07-10 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea!
2014-07-10 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you board the plane
2014-07-10 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know that the piece is not going to fit in the overhead
2014-07-10 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you then check it in at the gate
2014-07-10 17:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and viola
2014-07-10 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no charges!
2014-07-10 17:13:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2014-07-10 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to do this from time to time as I carry at least 3 bags on my trips
2014-07-10 17:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I take Southwest as much as I can since they give me two bags at no charge
2014-07-10 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's one thing to give "customer NO service"
2014-07-10 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you have to pay for your bags...sorry...I'll take my business elsewhere
2014-07-10 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't mind the "puddle jumping"
2014-07-10 17:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the Wright Amendment goes dark later this year
2014-07-10 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Southwest is going to have a field day with non stop flights...especially into Texas
2014-07-10 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...onward
2014-07-10 17:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO also moved lower today
2014-07-10 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would appear that it didn't take out Tuesday's lows
2014-07-10 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with a lower price close that we got today
2014-07-10 17:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a small bullish divergent pattern on the table now
2014-07-10 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 22.30 level providing solid price support
2014-07-10 17:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we can see
2014-07-10 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have tops beneath tops controlling the short term MCO pattern
2014-07-10 17:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the buyers show enough backbone to break above this level of resistance
2014-07-10 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to take a wait and see attitude there
2014-07-10 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO also showed some buoyancy today
2014-07-10 17:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the 10% Trend continues to find near term support at its zero line
2014-07-10 17:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action as well continues to show some good strength here
2014-07-10 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the XLP hanging in there
2014-07-10 17:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that traders are being more defensive than they're being sellers right now
2014-07-10 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO is now highly "oversold" with a -87 reading
2014-07-10 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 5% Trend still above its zero line
2014-07-10 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could had seen a low point in the price pattern today
2014-07-10 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a rally back up to the 54.60 level looks probable near term
2014-07-10 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this high negative number in the MCO
2014-07-10 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're seeing a nice unwinding of extremes in the XLI breadth MCSUM
2014-07-10 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it approaches our next natural area of probable support at the +1000 level
2014-07-10 17:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...we could had seen wash out action today with this group of stocks
2014-07-10 17:22:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: -87 in XLI would be equivalent to what number in MCSUM?
2014-07-10 17:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...um...
2014-07-10 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not like that
2014-07-10 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can figure the -25 to -250 and -50 to -500
2014-07-10 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I guess you could say 870
2014-07-10 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not workable
2014-07-10 17:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a natural area of support or resistance
2014-07-10 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this area
2014-07-10 17:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two oscillators are only sisters...but not identical
2014-07-10 17:24:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: You mean it doesn't work that way
2014-07-10 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO has its nuances
2014-07-10 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM has its own nuances
2014-07-10 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some echo...but they do not provide the same context
2014-07-10 17:24:53 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK
2014-07-10 17:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as interpretative value is concerned
2014-07-10 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could say that having a reading of 87 in the MCO and 870 in the MCSUM would be either "overbought" or "oversold"
2014-07-10 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's about all
2014-07-10 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...look for a nice bounce in the Dow Industrials and Transports over the next couple of days
2014-07-10 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they will look like they're leading
2014-07-10 17:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're only providing cover for the rest of the market
2014-07-10 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is now testing its April lows
2014-07-10 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-07-10 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be very defensive here against the metals complex
2014-07-10 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they don't seem to have the underlying support that some believe they do right now
2014-07-10 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look at gold for a moment
2014-07-10 17:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugh..
2014-07-10 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rally failure bar
2014-07-10 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but silver looks better
2014-07-10 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not unusual since silver is the poor man's gold
2014-07-10 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it tends to look better toward the end of a run
2014-07-10 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-07-10 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't seen the PM breadth data as yet
2014-07-10 17:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the price chart of gold suggests some follow through downside action short term
2014-07-10 17:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by Monday at the latest
2014-07-10 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the move could break below all three moving averages
2014-07-10 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT could set the bottom
2014-07-10 17:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as always
2014-07-10 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll make comment on the metals this weekend
2014-07-10 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO continues to hold up nicely compared with the rest of the sectors we cover here
2014-07-10 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and got a very strong reversal bar today
2014-07-10 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't be too surprising to see new highs as soon as Friday there
2014-07-10 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it me...or has there been a lot of bearish posts on tech lately?
2014-07-10 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems a lot of people are calling a top here
2014-07-10 17:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe...I guess
2014-07-10 17:32:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: there have been
2014-07-10 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so you're seeing/hearing it too?
2014-07-10 17:32:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2014-07-10 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: love the price structure there with the XLK
2014-07-10 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this thing is going to surprise many
2014-07-10 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was just checking
2014-07-10 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you know that Apple is at its all time highs right now?
2014-07-10 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many analysts got it so wrong
2014-07-10 17:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know when it bottomed?
2014-07-10 17:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when everyone was calling the stock in a bear market
2014-07-10 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more things change...the more they remain the same
2014-07-10 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people never learn
2014-07-10 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO has now pushed back above its zero line
2014-07-10 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's a good example when we talk about "texture"
2014-07-10 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice on the latest decline that the oscillator moved down with any hesitation to its structure
2014-07-10 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since the recent lows
2014-07-10 17:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw it move back above zero
2014-07-10 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: test the zero line
2014-07-10 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then moved to a higher high
2014-07-10 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then tells us that the buyers are back in control of the action
2014-07-10 17:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least for the short term
2014-07-10 17:37:06 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes I see it now!
2014-07-10 17:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a test of the all time highs is now probable given where we are in relation to this same high point
2014-07-10 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that with the higher highs in the XLU breadth MCO
2014-07-10 17:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the XLU breadth MCSUM has turned up
2014-07-10 17:38:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: One of the few
2014-07-10 17:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this
2014-07-10 17:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now KNOW that the defensive stocks continue to see support for now
2014-07-10 17:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Consumer Staples
2014-07-10 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Health Care
2014-07-10 17:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Utilities
2014-07-10 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that majority are just parking their money IN the market
2014-07-10 17:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NOT taking it out
2014-07-10 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a very important piece of information
2014-07-10 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if this wasn't happening
2014-07-10 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we would expect a longer consolidation, and likely, a deeper price retracement
2014-07-10 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shorts better be very careful here
2014-07-10 17:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as intraday money flow did not lead this morning's sell off
2014-07-10 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it led last week
2014-07-10 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and firmed yesterday
2014-07-10 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check to see how it settled
2014-07-10 17:40:48 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: How do you track intraday money flow?
2014-07-10 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE pretty much moved sideways today
2014-07-10 17:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ was lower
2014-07-10 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...super secret weapon time
2014-07-10 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready?
2014-07-10 17:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: use the cumulative TICK
2014-07-10 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a 5 minute time period
2014-07-10 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and apply, initially, a 19 and 39 day EMA to that time period...and then add the NYA price index behind that
2014-07-10 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll let you have the thrill of discovery from there
2014-07-10 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-07-10 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-07-10 17:42:18 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Can not wait[smile]
2014-07-10 17:42:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I watch it all day
2014-07-10 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the Industrial sector looks to be washed out near term
2014-07-10 17:42:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Now I will to at least as much as I can
2014-07-10 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the sectors look to be hanging in there for now
2014-07-10 17:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with special emphasis coming with the defensive sectors
2014-07-10 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as tech and the financials
2014-07-10 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this then suggests that the last COUPLE of days of price decay is probably near "A" conclusion
2014-07-10 17:44:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: [smile]
2014-07-10 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll have to wait and see how many buyers belly up to the bar as far as their conviction is concerned on Friday
2014-07-10 17:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2014-07-10 17:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything looks very healthy here so far
2014-07-10 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the market continues to have this strong under tone
2014-07-10 17:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may have shaken the tree enough to where prices can surge higher again based off the momentum that was generated over the last 2 months
2014-07-10 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-07-10 17:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's continue to hang in there with no indication, as yet, of any capitulation
2014-07-10 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are finally breaking down below their zero lines
2014-07-10 17:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the VTO's continue to stay up and near their "overbought" extremes
2014-07-10 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this can continue
2014-07-10 17:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the STVO's are able to move to "oversold"
2014-07-10 17:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that the uptrend is very strong here
2014-07-10 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're likely to see major upside moves in many of the indices
2014-07-10 17:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back of shorts throwing in the towel
2014-07-10 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and traders again missing another buying op
2014-07-10 17:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.16
2014-07-10 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2014-07-10 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so barely in "oversold" territory
2014-07-10 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if the NASDAQ is there now
2014-07-10 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .72
2014-07-10 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some short covering there
2014-07-10 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 back to neutral with a .92 reading
2014-07-10 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .91
2014-07-10 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .97
2014-07-10 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-07-10 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not "overbought"
2014-07-10 17:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're not quite "oversold" enough to keep prices from seeing a quick probe near term either
2014-07-10 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that leaves us with our current blueprint of hit and run for now
2014-07-10 17:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sitting on our hands as far as any new buying is concerned until we get more of a commitment from one side or the other
2014-07-10 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS prelim...one sec
2014-07-10 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD line has now moved down and through both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's
2014-07-10 17:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so now you know why the MCO components both moved below their zero lines and a sell was given
2014-07-10 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (not so hard to know once you understand what you're looking at [smile] )
2014-07-10 17:54:47 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I cannot wait for that day
2014-07-10 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +60
2014-07-10 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "Hold with a Bullish Bias"
2014-07-10 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the buy signal is off the table
2014-07-10 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are 5 charts where they can be back in bullish configurations on any positive move on Friday
2014-07-10 17:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how we settle then
2014-07-10 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-07-10 17:56:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-07-10 17:56:18 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Nope
2014-07-10 17:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the breadth charts array should be interesting this weekend...can't wait to review them
2014-07-10 17:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-07-10 17:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to go home and have a glass of wine
2014-07-10 17:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-07-10 17:57:38 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night great idea
2014-07-10 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again next Tuesday
2014-07-10 17:57:42 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Thx
2014-07-10 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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