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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2016-06-09 16:00:17 fib1618: good day
2016-06-09 16:00:21 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-06-09 16:01:20 mojave: good here; I decided against posting in forum
2016-06-09 16:01:43 mojave: after back testing what I was going to post, decided it didn't really add much to what we follow & discuss here
2016-06-09 16:05:30 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-06-09 16:06:13 mojave: not here, I'm just rolling some futures charts
2016-06-09 16:06:48 fib1618: to which month?
2016-06-09 16:06:57 fib1618: U's?
2016-06-09 16:07:04 mojave: yes, Sept
2016-06-09 16:07:24 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started then
2016-06-09 16:08:14 fib1618: I lied...I'm looking at the cumulative charts first...one sec
2016-06-09 16:08:31 fib1618: TSX Ventures are flying higher now
2016-06-09 16:09:44 fib1618: now up over 50% since the January lows
2016-06-09 16:10:38 fib1618: +75
2016-06-09 16:10:42 fib1618: Buy
2016-06-09 16:10:50 fib1618: OK...back to the McClellan's
2016-06-09 16:11:13 fib1618: after moving to the +62 level on Wednesday
2016-06-09 16:11:22 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2016-06-09 16:11:36 fib1618: coming with a reading of +35
2016-06-09 16:11:48 fib1618: however, it still remains with a pattern of bottoms above bottoms
2016-06-09 16:12:35 fib1618: we also left behind a minor island reversal in the NYA price structure
2016-06-09 16:12:58 fib1618: though with Wednesday's new highs in this MCO confirming the new recovery highs in the NYA
2016-06-09 16:13:43 fib1618: today would probably fall under the category of profit taking...or it could be that we saw futures contract rolling over to September expiration
2016-06-09 16:14:11 fib1618: in fact
2016-06-09 16:14:38 fib1618: today's volume on the NYA was the lowest since Memorial Day weekend here in the states
2016-06-09 16:14:58 fib1618: with contracting volume suggesting a counter trend move
2016-06-09 16:15:22 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-06-09 16:15:43 fib1618: and here we hit the +50 level on Wednesday
2016-06-09 16:15:57 fib1618: and then pulled back to a reading of +26 today
2016-06-09 16:16:13 fib1618: ideally we should now see a bounce off this natural area of support
2016-06-09 16:16:34 fib1618: as we saw natural resistance holding the upside progress of the bulls today
2016-06-09 16:17:12 fib1618: also of note is that the 10% Trend of the Composite MCO was pretty close to the +200 level
2016-06-09 16:17:30 fib1618: and that's about as extended as we tend to get during trending sequences
2016-06-09 16:17:47 fib1618: also of note
2016-06-09 16:18:03 fib1618: is that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now at the +1000 level
2016-06-09 16:18:50 fib1618: so a bit of push back is something that we can see at these 250 multiple levels in the MCSUM itself
2016-06-09 16:19:00 fib1618: looks like a pause so far
2016-06-09 16:19:18 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-06-09 16:19:31 fib1618: and here we had a slight technical breakdown today
2016-06-09 16:19:47 fib1618: as Wednesday push to higher highs was reversed hard today
2016-06-09 16:19:54 fib1618: and we moved to a lower low than last week
2016-06-09 16:20:20 fib1618: this now opens the door to a possible double top formation in the NASDAQ price pattern structure
2016-06-09 16:21:01 fib1618: especially since this MCO was stopped cold in its tracks at the +50 level last week
2016-06-09 16:21:26 fib1618: checking daily volume (which should be below average for the second top)
2016-06-09 16:21:55 fib1618: and we see that it is also following this guideline
2016-06-09 16:22:35 fib1618: add to this that the NDX price structure had not moved to challenge its April highs as the Composite did
2016-06-09 16:22:51 fib1618: and this is enough of a warning to flash a yellow caution light for the near term
2016-06-09 16:23:20 fib1618: also in play here is our old friend, the Sign of the Bear pattern
2016-06-09 16:23:41 fib1618: where we saw a hard decline in the NASDAQ in the January period
2016-06-09 16:23:55 fib1618: only to be followed up by what could turn into a double top formation
2016-06-09 16:24:38 fib1618: with the warning trigger of the pattern coming if we take out the May price lows
2016-06-09 16:26:00 fib1618: more information on the SOB can be found at the following link: http://tinyurl.com/gvsk7ch
2016-06-09 16:29:49 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-06-09 16:30:07 fib1618: and we see that it continues to weaken
2016-06-09 16:30:24 fib1618: but still remains in positive territory with a reading of +19
2016-06-09 16:31:09 fib1618: it also closed today right on the rising bottoms line connecting the early and mid May lows
2016-06-09 16:31:35 fib1618: so we might see a bounce attempt as soon as tomorrow
2016-06-09 16:32:39 fib1618: the SPX price chart moved to its highest levels in a year on Wednesday
2016-06-09 16:33:03 fib1618: and closed today some 11 points away from its all time highs
2016-06-09 16:33:33 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCO though
2016-06-09 16:33:45 fib1618: and we didn't see a confirmation of these new highs on Wednesday
2016-06-09 16:34:01 fib1618: and since we have reached our upside price objectives given a month or so ago
2016-06-09 16:34:24 fib1618: and we're also at a presumed top of a trading range
2016-06-09 16:34:44 fib1618: so the buyers now have to be on guard of some sort of exhaustion at this time
2016-06-09 16:35:05 fib1618: given the weakness in the NDX
2016-06-09 16:35:37 fib1618: one could put their Elliott hat on and suggest that we're close to, if not already, completed an irregular flat "B"wave
2016-06-09 16:35:54 fib1618: and for fun...let me do some calcs on that
2016-06-09 16:37:14 fib1618: well...1.382 x the length of the decline in April/May would come out to about 2123 for a peak for wave "B"
2016-06-09 16:37:24 fib1618: the high so far...2119
2016-06-09 16:37:34 fib1618: so it's something to consider
2016-06-09 16:37:40 fib1618: and if this is correct...let's see
2016-06-09 16:38:14 fib1618: 1.618 x the length of wave A from the 2119 peak would be 2028
2016-06-09 16:38:28 fib1618: interestingly enough
2016-06-09 16:38:38 fib1618: the 200 day EMA is currently at 2033
2016-06-09 16:38:43 fib1618: so...doable
2016-06-09 16:38:57 fib1618: but can this be a "B" wave with the BETS at a +75?
2016-06-09 16:39:03 fib1618: I guess
2016-06-09 16:39:17 fib1618: given that most of the strength is coming from Canada right now
2016-06-09 16:39:26 fib1618: where gold and oil are doing well
2016-06-09 16:39:36 fib1618: we'll see how it goes
2016-06-09 16:40:08 fib1618: our complex bullish structure remains with the OEX breadth MCO
2016-06-09 16:40:26 fib1618: as it has now moved lower to a +18 reading today
2016-06-09 16:40:33 fib1618: we have a lot of high teen readings today
2016-06-09 16:41:18 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is doing better as it peaked out at a +54 on Wednesday
2016-06-09 16:41:54 fib1618: and the Dow breadth MCSUM is now just under the important +500 level
2016-06-09 16:42:21 fib1618: could be topping in a trading range here as well
2016-06-09 16:43:13 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO only made it a +70 reading on Wednesday
2016-06-09 16:43:34 fib1618: which is a bit lower than the +71 reading we saw last week
2016-06-09 16:44:02 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO also had a good day on Wednesday
2016-06-09 16:44:08 fib1618: peaking out with a +82 reading
2016-06-09 16:44:24 fib1618: bottoms above bottoms remain intact there
2016-06-09 16:45:03 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO fell sharply today
2016-06-09 16:45:24 fib1618: after peaking out on Wednesday with a reading of +48
2016-06-09 16:45:29 fib1618: so...
2016-06-09 16:45:47 fib1618: although the buyers did step up to the plate on Wednesday when they needed to
2016-06-09 16:46:05 fib1618: we didn't see any follow through to this impulse today
2016-06-09 16:46:26 fib1618: and even broke the advancing texture of many of the MCO's
2016-06-09 16:46:57 fib1618: again...could be OPEX related as June contracts are due to roll over between yesterday and today
2016-06-09 16:47:42 fib1618: so we'll have to wait for Friday to see if this is something more of a trading anomaly or not
2016-06-09 16:47:56 mojave: futures rolling, options have a week to dither & square
2016-06-09 16:47:59 fib1618: moving to the sectors
2016-06-09 16:48:08 fib1618: this is true as well
2016-06-09 16:48:38 fib1618: it looks like the XLY breadth MCO is losing some mojo here
2016-06-09 16:49:12 fib1618: as it peaked at a +40 on Wednesday and moved to lower lows today
2016-06-09 16:49:43 fib1618: looking at the daily graph of the XLY breadth MCSUM
2016-06-09 16:49:56 fib1618: and we can see how compressed the individual postings remain
2016-06-09 16:50:12 fib1618: and barely getting to today's +157 level
2016-06-09 16:50:20 fib1618: more of a hold here
2016-06-09 16:50:29 fib1618: as things look lethargic now
2016-06-09 16:50:56 fib1618: traders evidently still trying to get their head around last Friday's jobs data it would seem
2016-06-09 16:51:04 fib1618: as an aside
2016-06-09 16:51:19 fib1618: when I bought my refrigerator this week
2016-06-09 16:51:26 fib1618: I asked he gal there how the sale was going
2016-06-09 16:51:43 fib1618: (they were having a Memorial Day sale that lasted for 3 weeks)
2016-06-09 16:51:51 fib1618: she told me that aside from the holiday weekend itself
2016-06-09 16:51:57 fib1618: there was very little being bought
2016-06-09 16:52:18 fib1618: of course this was one store
2016-06-09 16:52:37 fib1618: but in my hunting for this purchase, this was the store with the lowest price
2016-06-09 16:52:50 fib1618: for what it's worth and all that
2016-06-09 16:53:05 fib1618: new all time high close in the XLP today
2016-06-09 16:53:26 fib1618: with a confirmed breadth thrust showing on the XLP breadth MCO
2016-06-09 16:53:43 fib1618: as it was able to move above the +50 level
2016-06-09 16:54:09 fib1618: but also above the small reaction high seen in the declining sequence in early May
2016-06-09 16:54:22 fib1618: note the upward slope as well in the XLP breadth MCSUM
2016-06-09 16:54:28 fib1618: and this puppy remains on a buy signal
2016-06-09 16:55:02 fib1618: after having a nice showing on Tuesday with a +47 reading
2016-06-09 16:55:22 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO has now fully snapped back to its zero line
2016-06-09 16:55:26 fib1618: with a reading of -3
2016-06-09 16:55:40 fib1618: near term, we should now see a technical bounce in this sector
2016-06-09 16:56:16 fib1618: especially when we see the XLE MCO components in their current "kiss back" configuration
2016-06-09 16:56:45 fib1618: maybe Tuesday was the last push to fully meet our upside targets?
2016-06-09 16:57:11 fib1618: but the bottom line for now is that the price trend remains higher
2016-06-09 16:58:08 fib1618: though failing to move back above the +750 level on the XLE breadth MCSUM for the second time in less than a month is a caution sign that the trend of money flow may be peaking on an intermediate term basis
2016-06-09 16:58:39 fib1618: guess we'll have to wait until next week to get the final verdict there
2016-06-09 16:59:16 fib1618: moving to the XLF breadth MCO
2016-06-09 16:59:36 fib1618: and here we continue look a bit on the sloppy side
2016-06-09 16:59:47 fib1618: though the we did move down and through the zero line today
2016-06-09 17:00:23 fib1618: overall though
2016-06-09 17:00:31 fib1618: current internal relationships remain corrective
2016-06-09 17:00:39 fib1618: but nothing worth chasing on either side of the fence
2016-06-09 17:00:50 fib1618: so continuing to stand aside there
2016-06-09 17:01:04 fib1618: market continues to look confused
2016-06-09 17:02:10 fib1618: the XLV is testing overhead price resistance at the $73 level
2016-06-09 17:02:43 fib1618: fortunately for the buyers
2016-06-09 17:03:07 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCSUM remains elevated here at just below the +1000 level
2016-06-09 17:03:34 fib1618: so better to hold here and/or stand aside as we seem to locked in a small range for now
2016-06-09 17:04:06 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO continues to show good strength
2016-06-09 17:04:24 fib1618: peaking at a +77 on Wednesday
2016-06-09 17:04:46 fib1618: and with the XLI breadth MCSUM now up and through the +1000 level
2016-06-09 17:05:01 fib1618: we should continue to move toward our next natural resistance area of +1250
2016-06-09 17:05:43 fib1618: where we see some significant pattern resistance from April
2016-06-09 17:06:18 fib1618: higher highs in the XLB breadth MCO confirming the price pattern highs of Wednesday
2016-06-09 17:06:42 fib1618: and looking at the XLB MCO components
2016-06-09 17:06:57 fib1618: it would appear that we should have a technical bounce in this basket of issues as soon as Friday
2016-06-09 17:07:27 fib1618: watch the +1000 level as well on the XLB breadth MCSUM
2016-06-09 17:07:58 fib1618: as further strength from current levels would also close our gap resistance zone that we can see on the 21 day close up chart
2016-06-09 17:08:24 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO looks very similar to that of the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-06-09 17:08:40 fib1618: so we know where the weight of the current weakness lies
2016-06-09 17:08:42 fib1618: and...
2016-06-09 17:09:05 fib1618: it also tells us that this is the group to watch for as for any tip off of might take place over the next couple of days either higher or lower
2016-06-09 17:09:51 fib1618: and wham, bam, thank you ma'am...the XLU breadth MCO regained its composure and moved sharply higher today
2016-06-09 17:10:21 fib1618: and this now confirms the breakaway gap we saw in the XLU price chart on Tuesday as being a significant breakout to the upside
2016-06-09 17:10:41 fib1618: this would also suggest that any interest rate increases have been put aside for now
2016-06-09 17:11:21 fib1618: with the initial upside price target for the XLU to be around $53
2016-06-09 17:11:29 fib1618: so...
2016-06-09 17:11:44 fib1618: the defensive issues have not only stabilized now
2016-06-09 17:11:50 fib1618: but seem to be leading the market higher
2016-06-09 17:12:08 fib1618: we also see good strength continuing in the industrials and the materials sectors
2016-06-09 17:12:37 fib1618: with the tech and discretionaries being the weak links in the chain
2016-06-09 17:12:46 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2016-06-09 17:13:43 fib1618: not too much in the way of substantive changes in the OBV's from Tuesday
2016-06-09 17:13:48 fib1618: so we seem to be trending
2016-06-09 17:14:04 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.23
2016-06-09 17:14:14 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10.
2016-06-09 17:14:18 fib1618: and "oversold"
2016-06-09 17:15:11 fib1618: when we see this happen, with prices moving sideways, it's better than a 75% chance that we're just digesting gains (or losses as the case may be) before taking another "step" higher (or lower)
2016-06-09 17:15:23 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .62
2016-06-09 17:15:44 fib1618: not what you want to see if you're a bull with talk of a double top in play here
2016-06-09 17:15:59 fib1618: Open 10 at .91
2016-06-09 17:16:01 fib1618: neutral
2016-06-09 17:16:12 fib1618: TM TRIN at .85
2016-06-09 17:16:24 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-06-09 17:16:30 fib1618: so minimally "oversold" there
2016-06-09 17:16:32 fib1618: so...
2016-06-09 17:16:47 fib1618: it "looks like" a simple case of rotation going on right now
2016-06-09 17:17:00 fib1618: as money doesn't seem to be moving to cash
2016-06-09 17:17:13 fib1618: as it is looking for areas of perceived undervaluation
2016-06-09 17:17:32 fib1618: the financials look blah
2016-06-09 17:17:52 fib1618: energy is going to tip its hand in the next day or so it would seem
2016-06-09 17:18:21 fib1618: interest rates are going stay at current levels and/or sink even lower
2016-06-09 17:18:46 fib1618: and business conditions in the pit are just plain lousy
2016-06-09 17:19:08 fib1618: with many of the major indices now at the top of their 1 year ranges
2016-06-09 17:19:24 fib1618: either we pull back and work off our "overbought" conditions
2016-06-09 17:19:53 fib1618: or we see a strong breakout to the upside like we're seeing in the utilities, and to a lesser degree, consumer staples
2016-06-09 17:20:06 fib1618: let's see what else is out there
2016-06-09 17:20:53 fib1618: P/C ratios seem to be indicating a top
2016-06-09 17:21:05 fib1618: lots of calls here
2016-06-09 17:21:15 fib1618: maybe we need to air things out?
2016-06-09 17:22:04 fib1618: wow...Mark's sentiment last weekend was 17% bulls and 56% bears
2016-06-09 17:23:24 fib1618: all of the volatility indexes are right at their 20 day deviations
2016-06-09 17:23:34 fib1618: so if there's going to be a rally, or a change of pace, it will happen on Friday
2016-06-09 17:24:22 fib1618: Dow Transports are still very weak here
2016-06-09 17:25:14 fib1618: the only exchange that looks bullish right now is the TSX (duh)
2016-06-09 17:25:33 fib1618: Aerospace is strong
2016-06-09 17:25:49 fib1618: Banks are EMA compressed
2016-06-09 17:26:03 fib1618: Biotech is weak
2016-06-09 17:26:19 fib1618: that's a weight on the NDX
2016-06-09 17:26:38 fib1618: commodities remain strong (DBC)
2016-06-09 17:27:06 fib1618: Dividend stocks as well
2016-06-09 17:27:28 fib1618: transports are coiled and ready to break in one direction or the other
2016-06-09 17:28:01 fib1618: large move in natural gas today to the upside (UNG)
2016-06-09 17:28:38 fib1618: health care devices are strong
2016-06-09 17:28:49 fib1618: drugs are weak
2016-06-09 17:29:15 fib1618: home construction may be breaking out to the upside now
2016-06-09 17:29:46 fib1618: reits are doing great
2016-06-09 17:30:06 fib1618: retail is VERY weak
2016-06-09 17:30:48 fib1618: semi's are buoyant
2016-06-09 17:31:13 fib1618: silver and gold continue to fill their technical vacuum's
2016-06-09 17:31:51 fib1618: agricultural is zooming higher
2016-06-09 17:32:11 fib1618: up 14% in a month
2016-06-09 17:32:35 fib1618: airlines may have bottomed after the TSA problems
2016-06-09 17:32:56 fib1618: chemicals remain firm
2016-06-09 17:33:05 fib1618: probably on the back of higher oil prices
2016-06-09 17:33:29 fib1618: computer disk drives are doing well
2016-06-09 17:34:05 fib1618: up a whopping 28% in a month
2016-06-09 17:34:33 fib1618: great example of a rounding bottom pattern there ($DDX)
2016-06-09 17:35:44 fib1618: internationally
2016-06-09 17:35:54 fib1618: Belgium is strong
2016-06-09 17:37:08 fib1618: good movement in Taiwan
2016-06-09 17:37:17 fib1618: and everything else looks like a compressed mess
2016-06-09 17:37:24 fib1618: except for one...Spain, which is, by far, the weakest pattern going right now
2016-06-09 17:38:33 fib1618: LIBOR rates are suggesting caution here
2016-06-09 17:39:19 fib1618: long end of the yield curve is very weak here
2016-06-09 17:39:38 fib1618: 30 year's are now at 2.48% (!)
2016-06-09 17:40:06 fib1618: US Dollar remains bearish
2016-06-09 17:40:23 fib1618: and T continues to make new highs
2016-06-09 17:41:13 fib1618: VISA is starting to show some strength here
2016-06-09 17:41:33 fib1618: which could be a whisper of better consumer buying coming
2016-06-09 17:41:40 fib1618: other than that
2016-06-09 17:41:56 fib1618: we seem to be treading water right now...looking for a tributary to take.
2016-06-09 17:42:00 fib1618: anything else?
2016-06-09 17:42:50 fib1618: for now...let's let the BETS be our guide
2016-06-09 17:43:05 fib1618: and continue on the path of least resistance...that to the upside
2016-06-09 17:46:25 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-06-09 17:46:29 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-06-09 17:46:36 fib1618: everyone have a great upcoming weekend
2016-06-09 17:46:45 fib1618: and we'll tear the market apart again next Tuesday
2016-06-09 17:46:49 fib1618: good night
2016-06-09 18:40:27 mojave: tks


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