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Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-06-07 16:00:16 fib1618: good day
2016-06-07 16:00:20 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-06-07 16:00:38 mojave: good here, hope you're well
2016-06-07 16:02:31 fib1618: doing fine...
2016-06-07 16:08:18 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-06-07 16:09:22 fib1618: OK let's get SC up and get started
2016-06-07 16:09:59 fib1618: mid range close in the NYA today
2016-06-07 16:10:19 fib1618: but we also closed at new recovery highs
2016-06-07 16:10:30 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2016-06-07 16:10:41 fib1618: and these new highs were confirmed with a small point change today
2016-06-07 16:10:55 fib1618: closing the day with a reading of +51
2016-06-07 16:11:39 fib1618: we've also moved above the MCO spike highs of mid April since our last get together
2016-06-07 16:12:02 fib1618: and looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-06-07 16:12:20 fib1618: we can see that money is moving in at a good clip now in supporting this basket of issues
2016-06-07 16:12:57 fib1618: defiantly an Elliott 3rd wave up currently based on the daily ebb and flow
2016-06-07 16:13:26 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-06-07 16:13:34 fib1618: and we also had a small point change here as well
2016-06-07 16:13:56 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2016-06-07 16:14:23 fib1618: we also closed above the mid April spike highs today in this MCO
2016-06-07 16:14:46 fib1618: so though the composite is trailing the amplitude of the CO MCO
2016-06-07 16:14:53 fib1618: we are moving in tandem
2016-06-07 16:15:16 fib1618: and that should keep prices buoyant for the next couple of days
2016-06-07 16:15:50 fib1618: since finding resistance at the +50 level last week
2016-06-07 16:16:10 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO now has a top beneath a top in its structure with today's lower close
2016-06-07 16:16:54 fib1618: both of the NASDAQ MCO components though did seem to make new highs on Monday
2016-06-07 16:17:12 fib1618: so this is likely just a continuation of last week's pause to refresh
2016-06-07 16:17:42 fib1618: with 5100 still the upside target forecast for this index
2016-06-07 16:18:03 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-06-07 16:18:11 fib1618: and we can see where the weakness lies here
2016-06-07 16:18:27 fib1618: as the movement of late has a sellers slant to it
2016-06-07 16:18:35 fib1618: we also have a small point change in this MCO
2016-06-07 16:19:30 fib1618: but there's been enough investment capital to drive the NDX breadth MCSUM up and through the +500 level now
2016-06-07 16:20:25 fib1618: while any further weakness from here in the MCO is likely to find support at the rising bottoms which intersects at around the +15 level
2016-06-07 16:22:02 fib1618: also of note is that the NDX price pattern structure has still not matched the levels we see in the broader based NASDAQ
2016-06-07 16:23:25 fib1618: and this is something that generally warns us that we have one of he cylinders misfiring that might have a bad affect for continuation of the overall trend itself
2016-06-07 16:23:55 fib1618: small point change in the SPX breadth MCO as well
2016-06-07 16:24:21 fib1618: it also looks like a false start today in the price bar
2016-06-07 16:24:30 fib1618: as it closed near the lows of the day
2016-06-07 16:25:26 fib1618: note also that we have now snapped back to the point of the previous reaction lows of late last month in the MCO
2016-06-07 16:25:47 fib1618: so the buyers will need to pick up the pace here or they will have a day or two more of weakness coming up
2016-06-07 16:26:31 fib1618: the good news for the OEX breadth MCO is that we have the tall tale sign of a complex bullish structure working right now
2016-06-07 16:26:56 fib1618: the bad news being that this structure is still below the important +50 level
2016-06-07 16:27:15 fib1618: it's like the market is going through the motions
2016-06-07 16:27:25 fib1618: maybe because of the worse than expected jobs data
2016-06-07 16:27:43 fib1618: which is more in line with what I've been seeing now for the last couple of months
2016-06-07 16:28:57 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO peaked out yesterday at the +50 level
2016-06-07 16:29:13 fib1618: and pulled back today with a reading of +38
2016-06-07 16:29:36 fib1618: Dow breadth MCSUM gap resistance is now closed
2016-06-07 16:29:50 fib1618: looks like indecision to me
2016-06-07 16:30:36 fib1618: the MID price action continues to move to new recovery highs on a daily basis now
2016-06-07 16:31:03 fib1618: small point change as well in the MID breadth MCO
2016-06-07 16:31:26 fib1618: and a small point change in the SML breadth MCO as well
2016-06-07 16:31:50 fib1618: as the price structure also closed at new recovery highs
2016-06-07 16:32:20 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2016-06-07 16:33:00 fib1618: while the Wilshire 5000 hit price resistance today at the highs of last November
2016-06-07 16:33:01 fib1618: so...
2016-06-07 16:33:19 fib1618: we seem to have skidded off the track a bit since Thursday
2016-06-07 16:34:01 fib1618: but not far enough away to where it can't be righted with a bit of fresh buyer strength
2016-06-07 16:34:27 fib1618: both the MID and SML continue to support their strong trends to the upside
2016-06-07 16:35:07 fib1618: while the NYA MCO's have now joined the group above the mid April spike highs
2016-06-07 16:36:50 fib1618: let me take a quick run though of the sectors and we'll hit the volume McClellan's
2016-06-07 16:37:37 fib1618: good strength coming into the XLE now
2016-06-07 16:38:02 fib1618: and with it we have now hit our upside price target objectives of several weeks ago
2016-06-07 16:38:28 fib1618: XLF is dead neutral short term
2016-06-07 16:38:53 fib1618: XLI has woken up
2016-06-07 16:39:16 fib1618: XLB now hanging in there
2016-06-07 16:39:27 fib1618: rotation is fierce right now
2016-06-07 16:39:37 fib1618: XLY got clobbered on Friday
2016-06-07 16:39:52 fib1618: (not because of me...I bought a refrigerator)
2016-06-07 16:40:20 fib1618: too funny
2016-06-07 16:40:34 fib1618: breakaway gap on Friday to the upside in the XLU
2016-06-07 16:40:41 fib1618: and not confirmed by the internals
2016-06-07 16:40:47 fib1618: what a mess
2016-06-07 16:40:52 fib1618: OK..volume
2016-06-07 16:41:33 fib1618: small point changes in both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2016-06-07 16:41:50 fib1618: as they continue to sneak higher in tandem with their breadth cousins
2016-06-07 16:42:01 fib1618: nothing negative there
2016-06-07 16:42:29 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO peaked out at a +74 on Thursday
2016-06-07 16:42:35 fib1618: slammed lower on Friday
2016-06-07 16:42:58 fib1618: and bounced Monday back to a +51
2016-06-07 16:43:06 fib1618: and down by a small point change today
2016-06-07 16:43:31 fib1618: rising bottoms line here is around +40
2016-06-07 16:44:08 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO broke below is rising bottoms line yesterday
2016-06-07 16:44:18 fib1618: lots of selling imbalance there of late
2016-06-07 16:44:48 fib1618: looks like a bit of food poisoning there...lots of indigestion
2016-06-07 16:45:08 fib1618: market is highly compressed here
2016-06-07 16:45:20 fib1618: small point change in the SPX volume MCO
2016-06-07 16:46:13 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO is almost desperate now in looking for some bullish help
2016-06-07 16:46:37 fib1618: after yesterday's higher high failed to follow through today
2016-06-07 16:47:12 fib1618: MID volume MCO is very strong right now
2016-06-07 16:47:17 fib1618: that's good
2016-06-07 16:47:46 fib1618: with good upside follow through today after closing above +50 on Monday
2016-06-07 16:48:04 fib1618: so the MID is telling us that liquidity is out there
2016-06-07 16:48:41 fib1618: but then we get to the SML volume MCO and we're only now challenging the high point of last week (?)
2016-06-07 16:48:59 fib1618: market is looking tired with all these kinds of inconsistencies
2016-06-07 16:49:17 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2016-06-07 16:49:25 fib1618: let me check the sector volume data
2016-06-07 16:51:07 fib1618: strong volume plurality moving into the XLE as well
2016-06-07 16:51:19 fib1618: which pretty much throws out our bearish slant from last week
2016-06-07 16:51:47 fib1618: XLF volume MCO is also neutral here
2016-06-07 16:52:23 fib1618: the XLF hasn't been much for trading for a while now
2016-06-07 16:52:57 fib1618: we have a technical breakdown in the XLV volume MCO
2016-06-07 16:53:20 fib1618: though it did reach its upside price target of $72
2016-06-07 16:53:25 fib1618: maybe we're range bound there
2016-06-07 16:53:44 fib1618: strong volume moving into the XLI
2016-06-07 16:53:57 fib1618: and that should be good for both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports short term
2016-06-07 16:54:16 fib1618: note the zero line support in the XLI volume MCSUM as well
2016-06-07 16:54:39 fib1618: and up and through the +250 level now which throws out any chance of a Summation Failure
2016-06-07 16:56:02 fib1618: and we're seeing upside confirmation in the XLU volume MCO
2016-06-07 16:57:26 fib1618: so what looked like our being on the edge of a major move to the upside last Thursday has become rather messy in the last couple of days
2016-06-07 16:57:52 fib1618: both the XLE and XLI have seen good strength though since that time
2016-06-07 16:58:05 fib1618: while the defensive issues have weakened
2016-06-07 16:58:11 fib1618: probably rotation
2016-06-07 16:58:28 fib1618: and trying to relate this to what happened on Friday
2016-06-07 16:58:39 fib1618: but it doesn't compute
2016-06-07 16:58:45 fib1618: in any event
2016-06-07 16:58:53 fib1618: the MID issues are where money is moving right now
2016-06-07 16:59:10 fib1618: so a mid cap energy or industrial stock might be the go to long for now
2016-06-07 16:59:15 fib1618: let's check the OBV's
2016-06-07 17:00:10 fib1618: CVI's remain more on the neutral side after peaking last week
2016-06-07 17:00:31 fib1618: STVO's continue to unwind from their "overbought" levels of last week as well
2016-06-07 17:00:50 fib1618: while the VTO's continue to climb higher, but have yet moved into "overbought" territory
2016-06-07 17:00:56 fib1618: looks correctional overall
2016-06-07 17:01:22 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.04
2016-06-07 17:01:32 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2016-06-07 17:02:01 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .81
2016-06-07 17:02:07 fib1618: after selling off hard on Friday
2016-06-07 17:02:24 fib1618: Open 10 now near neutral with a .87 reading
2016-06-07 17:02:30 fib1618: so we've worked off the froth there
2016-06-07 17:02:41 fib1618: TM TRIN at .95
2016-06-07 17:02:50 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2016-06-07 17:03:00 fib1618: so...if for anything else
2016-06-07 17:03:20 fib1618: the last couple of days of trading has skimmed off the froth that we had last week
2016-06-07 17:03:34 fib1618: as we seem to be "correcting on the fly" now
2016-06-07 17:04:02 fib1618: near term, the bulls are looking for others to belly up to the bar in order to keep things going
2016-06-07 17:04:37 fib1618: but the large cap internals are showing that they remain rather lethargic right now
2016-06-07 17:04:51 fib1618: and if there are no takers
2016-06-07 17:05:11 fib1618: we might have to have one of those "shake the tree" kind of days to get things going again
2016-06-07 17:05:18 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-06-07 17:05:39 fib1618: reminder...we had our first weekly buy there this past weekend at +70
2016-06-07 17:06:53 fib1618: +75
2016-06-07 17:07:07 fib1618: and the A/D lines look great now
2016-06-07 17:07:14 fib1618: so...
2016-06-07 17:07:25 fib1618: let's call today a false start kind of day
2016-06-07 17:07:39 fib1618: maybe there was some news in the afternoon that spooked traders?
2016-06-07 17:07:57 fib1618: but things remain in line for further price gains over the next several days
2016-06-07 17:08:05 fib1618: anything else?
2016-06-07 17:08:34 fib1618: wow...NYSE breadth today was 1927-1152
2016-06-07 17:08:48 fib1618: NASDAQ was positive as well
2016-06-07 17:09:16 fib1618: Asia opening up flat to higher
2016-06-07 17:09:26 mojave: I'm feeling more positive than you... but that means nothing!
2016-06-07 17:09:36 fib1618: ha
2016-06-07 17:09:45 fib1618: that's got to be a warning sign LOL
2016-06-07 17:09:58 mojave: yep
2016-06-07 17:10:03 fib1618: naw
2016-06-07 17:10:22 mojave: I'm going to post a couple things in the forum, just cuz it's so quiet there [smile]
2016-06-07 17:10:37 fib1618: I think that the data on Friday has caused a big re-evaluation with economists out there
2016-06-07 17:10:47 fib1618: it's always quiet there (unfortunately)
2016-06-07 17:11:01 fib1618: but it seems to be quiet everywhere
2016-06-07 17:11:14 fib1618: probably because of the large trading range
2016-06-07 17:11:17 mojave: confusion reigns
2016-06-07 17:11:23 fib1618: it tends to put people to sleep
2016-06-07 17:11:34 fib1618: well...
2016-06-07 17:11:43 fib1618: at least we got both interest rates and gold right
2016-06-07 17:11:51 fib1618: let me check the 10 year
2016-06-07 17:11:58 mojave: didn't mean confused in here - I mean 'the other guys'!
2016-06-07 17:12:19 fib1618: [smile]
2016-06-07 17:12:34 fib1618: at this point
2016-06-07 17:12:43 fib1618: it's a matter of following money flow's leadership
2016-06-07 17:12:55 mojave: natty perked up, you called FCG at/near the bottom pre-split
2016-06-07 17:12:56 fib1618: prices were flat to negative
2016-06-07 17:13:11 fib1618: and still the MCO's were firm
2016-06-07 17:13:32 fib1618: sometimes I get lucky [smile]
2016-06-07 17:13:50 fib1618: nice pattern there
2016-06-07 17:13:54 fib1618: the REITS are doing well too
2016-06-07 17:14:11 mojave: search for yield continues
2016-06-07 17:14:18 fib1618: and still yielding around 10%
2016-06-07 17:14:24 fib1618: yep
2016-06-07 17:14:36 fib1618: and now the rest of the crowd is saying no hike this month
2016-06-07 17:14:55 fib1618: you got to love breadth dynamics
2016-06-07 17:15:06 fib1618: OK...anything else?
2016-06-07 17:15:14 mojave: not here, tks as always
2016-06-07 17:15:51 fib1618: OK...then I'm going to take off a bit early then
2016-06-07 17:15:58 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-06-07 17:16:03 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2016-06-07 17:16:05 fib1618: good night
2016-06-07 17:16:10 dand64: Good night

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