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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-06-03 19:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-06-03 19:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-06-03 19:07:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Good, you?
2008-06-03 19:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fine and dandy!
2008-06-03 19:08:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yay!
2008-06-03 19:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments??
2008-06-03 19:11:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Has the next bear leg started?
2008-06-03 19:11:42 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Looks very dicey here....
2008-06-03 19:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...why?
2008-06-03 19:12:32 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: The MCO not showing any strength
2008-06-03 19:12:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: new MCO sells
2008-06-03 19:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...as of yesterday, all seems to be going to plan
2008-06-03 19:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we talked about the probability that a retest would be necessary
2008-06-03 19:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we also talked about the idea of developing divergence with this same retest
2008-06-03 19:13:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: YES!
2008-06-03 19:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: plus...the timing of which was probably going to run into the 6th
2008-06-03 19:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...is it dicey or are we seeing what was anticipated??
2008-06-03 19:14:24 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: We are seeing what was anticipated
2008-06-03 19:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...until proven otherwise, I guess we have to go with "the plan"
2008-06-03 19:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: divergent structures are powerful because of the emotion that they generate
2008-06-03 19:15:18 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: we tested 5/27 low with better A/D. Is that a divergence?
2008-06-03 19:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in that it's not necessarily damaging, but it still makes you stand up and notice
2008-06-03 19:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that can be
2008-06-03 19:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the question is whether it's possible or probable divergence
2008-06-03 19:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we don't really know until all is said and done
2008-06-03 19:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the best thing though is that we have a plan
2008-06-03 19:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if support doesn't hold, then something different is going on
2008-06-03 19:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if support (or resistance) does hold, then the plan remains viable
2008-06-03 19:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very important in not getting too involved with any or all distractions that can and do happen on a day to day basis
2008-06-03 19:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time
2008-06-03 19:17:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: what support? 1270?
2008-06-03 19:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's also important to identify what these distractions can and do have to do with prior tests and retests
2008-06-03 19:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example
2008-06-03 19:18:10 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: fib, got a minute to take about open 10? It is almost 1.20 today. we seems to move higher in the open 10 even when we were rallying. What does that tell you?
2008-06-03 19:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yesterday the market declined because of the very same thing that started this correctional period in the first place - the financials
2008-06-03 19:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any or all price pattern structures, you will tend to see the same "theme" develop not only within the current structure, but also at a time in which a counter trend structure is about to develop - call it the "finishing touch"
2008-06-03 19:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the same platform that keeps any or all traders from moving with the trend
2008-06-03 19:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...whether or not this is what we're seeing now, is debatable
2008-06-03 19:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but all we have to go with is how [u]money[/u] perceives this same information
2008-06-03 19:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the Open 10 is suggesting that a bottom of some substance is in the process of development
2008-06-03 19:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and IF we do start to develop internal/price divergent relationship, then a major bottom is being created
2008-06-03 19:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's take a look around and see what's going on
2008-06-03 19:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today but still remains above the previous lows created about a week or so ago
2008-06-03 19:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price also closed below this same "flag" point in the structure
2008-06-03 19:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so technically, we now have the possibility, if not the probability, of bull divergence in place
2008-06-03 19:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that when you see the MCO move below its zero line as we see here
2008-06-03 19:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it only instructs us that the 19 day EMA is moving faster to or away from the 39 day EMA
2008-06-03 19:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's important then when we see this is with the MCSUM itself
2008-06-03 19:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we look at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM, we see that it continues to remain above its zero line
2008-06-03 19:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would tell us that even though the shorter term EMA of the A/D line is moving faster towards the 39 day EMA, they both remain in a bullish configuration
2008-06-03 19:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the MCSUM zero line is the level in which these same EMA's cross
2008-06-03 19:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...on a TREND basis, we are continuing to correct the prior excesses developed
2008-06-03 19:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...how does this all fit in with the A/D line itself?
2008-06-03 19:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get the chart - one moment
2008-06-03 19:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=t21818790437&a=9236014&r=1442
2008-06-03 19:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...you can see several things here
2008-06-03 19:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first that the 19 day EMA is now showing a curl lower to the downside (this is what the MCO is showing us)
2008-06-03 19:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and at the same time, the 39 day EMA is moving basically sideways
2008-06-03 19:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the MCO at...let me go to the composite data - of -27
2008-06-03 19:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: its not a lot of energy..but it is less energy that was seen the week of 5/19
2008-06-03 19:30:42 [Message] frank -> Main Room: my i ask what your view is of commodities in general, but more importantly, how the "picture" could change if there are new rules set forth in how these new rules will limit the amount of contracts speculators can carry. also, there is talk that they will redefine what a "speculator" is and what a "hedger" is. if the new rules limit this type of activity, is that something that could possibly not show up in the internals?
2008-06-03 19:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is your divergence...
2008-06-03 19:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't think so Frank as we are dealing with different time factors in which money is available for investment in each asset class
2008-06-03 19:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money doesn't just get thrown at all classes when the FED opens the spigot - it has to move methodically through the system
2008-06-03 19:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...the intermarket theory here is that money will move from gold to commodities to debt and then finally to stocks
2008-06-03 19:33:05 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i would think that if commodities come down (forced down) and money comes out of that sector, it would find other areas to move to
2008-06-03 19:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually, this is an 18 month ordeal from beginning to end
2008-06-03 19:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-06-03 19:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not into gold
2008-06-03 19:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more than likely - first...into debt
2008-06-03 19:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - the jobs numbers on Friday might send this money into its natural path of the debt class
2008-06-03 19:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you also have to understand that from my viewpoint speculation in something like the oil market has very little substance behind it for it to be plausible
2008-06-03 19:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's an excuse
2008-06-03 19:35:05 [Message] frank -> Main Room: the reason i ask about this is that if the "rules" change, that would be something out of the ordinary, something that could not show up in technicals or internals, it would be a rule change, would like to get your thoughts on that. if the rules change, we can't use material that was used for the old rules, can we?
2008-06-03 19:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know, by common sense, that when you're dealing with a finite commodity, that if demand overwhelms the supply, prices move higher
2008-06-03 19:35:55 [Message] frank -> Main Room: the fed wants to force commodities down, they are letting it be known, just like they let it be known that the will do whatever it takes to save the credit markets, including bailing out bear
2008-06-03 19:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: understood
2008-06-03 19:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things in which I took a hard lesson in
2008-06-03 19:36:33 [Message] frank -> Main Room: yes, this is true, but there are new instruments out there like the uso, that give they common trader/investor access to these markets that they never had access to prior
2008-06-03 19:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is when a government body gets involved in capitalistic markets
2008-06-03 19:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, there are many angles here
2008-06-03 19:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although the a government can either talk or put into action a policy that would "correct a problem"
2008-06-03 19:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: history has shown, and this won't be any different, that much of this is a waste of time because the markets are just too large
2008-06-03 19:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they can affect prices on a short term nature, but they can not alter a trend (although they will take credit for this once the trend has actually changed in their direction)
2008-06-03 19:38:05 [Message] frank -> Main Room: bernanke specifically discussed the dollar, something that goes against everything he has said prior, its manipulation, and when the manipulation comes by the biggest of the big (government) how do we play in that game using internals or technicals
2008-06-03 19:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: frank...it's a distraction
2008-06-03 19:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pay it no mind
2008-06-03 19:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will be forgotten tomorrow
2008-06-03 19:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the FED can not manipulate a trend
2008-06-03 19:39:31 [Message] frank -> Main Room: didn't the fed cutting rates in January change the trend, at least short to intermediate term? the bear bailout? can internals and technicals factor that type of intervention in
2008-06-03 19:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: different chapter
2008-06-03 19:40:01 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Frank, just be long the Dollar, and you will sleep well.
2008-06-03 19:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the FED has a limited amount of ammunition, true
2008-06-03 19:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know Dennis - be careful
2008-06-03 19:40:46 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I know, but it seems like the right thing to do.
2008-06-03 19:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while it is true that there has been little talk from Washington about the dollar over the last 8 years, the pattern structure, plus the current fundamentals, may only suggest this to be just another stopping point
2008-06-03 19:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe it will turn into a foundation
2008-06-03 19:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: question...what did the dollar do today?
2008-06-03 19:42:11 [Message] frank -> Main Room: my experience (I'm sure much more limited than yours) tells me that when forces that large want something, they get it, at least for a period of time, and that i have not been able to chart this type of event, its like getting sideswiped
2008-06-03 19:42:36 [Message] frank -> Main Room: dollar was up .5%
2008-06-03 19:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would have to disagree Frank...have you studied the currency markets?
2008-06-03 19:43:02 [Message] frank -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-03 19:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...and do you remember the 1980's?
2008-06-03 19:43:54 [Message] frank -> Main Room: all of this currency swapping going on, its like all of the central banks are conspiring to lift the dollar b/c they are all fighting inflation and everything is denominated in dollars
2008-06-03 19:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do you remember about all of the interventions that we're attempted to halt the dollar's slide?
2008-06-03 19:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whew - you're bringing up some interesting points and theories
2008-06-03 19:44:42 [Message] frank -> Main Room: thank you
2008-06-03 19:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we are dealing with fundamentalists
2008-06-03 19:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...fundamentalism
2008-06-03 19:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which never makes you money (well, I should say it doesn't help you to)
2008-06-03 19:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me take a moment and bring up the dollar chart, and then we'll get back to the internals
2008-06-03 19:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=t75444828062&r=8646
2008-06-03 19:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just keeping it simple here, the trend remains lower
2008-06-03 19:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both as far as trendline analysis, as well as, in relation to the longer term 200 day EMA
2008-06-03 19:48:08 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Frank, lets be honest here: first question: what is your position in currencies? second: Why are you nervous?
2008-06-03 19:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: If I may Dennis, I don't believe either question is needed here
2008-06-03 19:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we technically look at the price chart
2008-06-03 19:49:06 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: questions in the markets always derived from bets
2008-06-03 19:49:08 [Message] frank -> Main Room: not nervous, im short commodities, and now i feel like the gov, and the central banks are on my side
2008-06-03 19:49:23 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Yes they are
2008-06-03 19:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the last couple of months have shown a bottom above bottoms structure
2008-06-03 19:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, back in the good old days - when the FED chief or the Treasury secretary discussed the Dollar - we saw VERY large moves in the dollar chart pattern
2008-06-03 19:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2% to 3% one day moves
2008-06-03 19:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not so here
2008-06-03 19:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but aside from this, the current pattern structure is NOT one of a reversal of trend
2008-06-03 19:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's more of a pause in an extended downtrend
2008-06-03 19:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and usually what happens during extended moves
2008-06-03 19:51:18 [Message] frank -> Main Room: hasn't the trend been quite long and quite hard down? a counter trend could last months right?
2008-06-03 19:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we will get someone of "authority" who will speak out in the same time period in which this same counter trend move is about exhausted itself
2008-06-03 19:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could, but the pattern structure is weak
2008-06-03 19:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not showing any kind of...ummmm...compression
2008-06-03 19:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just taking a stroll
2008-06-03 19:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of 1999 and gold
2008-06-03 19:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and at that bottom, it was at that same time in which many governments were selling off their reserves
2008-06-03 19:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that gold was going to $150 US
2008-06-03 19:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and all of a sudden, the price exploded higher as the last of the "unwilling" sellers got out
2008-06-03 19:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're not seeing this here
2008-06-03 19:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since this is the very first time in almost 8 years that anybody has discussed the dollar, I don't believe the seasoned traders really believe it
2008-06-03 19:54:35 [Message] frank -> Main Room: that was where the manipulation questions came from, the dollar doesn't look like a bottom, however, some commodities look like intermediate term top, since they have had such a direct correlation, one answer was that they were going to "change the rules"
2008-06-03 19:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even if the rules change, the markets will ALWAYS adjust
2008-06-03 19:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the latest and greatest example of this would be with decimalization
2008-06-03 19:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in the broader sense, the markets are always changing, they are always different
2008-06-03 19:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what our job is...and as Tom McClellan put so eloquently:
2008-06-03 19:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent"
2008-06-03 19:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do indicators work the same in bull and bear environments?
2008-06-03 19:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope
2008-06-03 19:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some don't work at all, while some parameters need tweaking (the Open 10 would be a good example)
2008-06-03 19:57:52 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: what about intermarket relationships? They changes too, right?
2008-06-03 19:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything changes, this why no one ever "gets it right"
2008-06-03 19:58:27 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What does that mean, "send money in it's natural path of the debt class?"
2008-06-03 19:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just when you think you have the market pegged, it changes the rules on you
2008-06-03 19:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from gold to commodities to debt to equities - the natural path
2008-06-03 19:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...we're talking "excess" after all of these same classes are fully valued
2008-06-03 20:00:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But why is it a DEBT class? Why not just a class?
2008-06-03 20:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I have learned over the years is simple
2008-06-03 20:00:34 [Message] frank -> Main Room: one last question (i think), you mentioned above about how the financials led the decline and sometimes they finish to keep people from going with the change in trend. is it troubling to you, that many banks (bac, wachovia, $bkx) took out jan and march lows? at what point in the financials selling off that it gets bad enough that it will shake out the rest of the market....(crescendo sell off where the babies go with the bath water) the banks don't look like a bottom either, what gives?
2008-06-03 20:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you go with what you technically can until either proven otherwise, or it doesn't pertain
2008-06-03 20:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...the four main financial classes are gold, commodities, debt (notes and bonds) and equities
2008-06-03 20:01:29 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: That's why you track the CEF internals, right. money goes to bond and then equity.
2008-06-03 20:01:38 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: Will this path change?
2008-06-03 20:02:04 [Message] frank -> Main Room: you have to go back 10 years on some monthly charts on banks to see where sometime of support would be
2008-06-03 20:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: frank...if I based any kind analysis on one or two issues (as big or as small as they maybe) I would be broke
2008-06-03 20:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's look at the BKX - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BKX&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=t29339265550&r=4924
2008-06-03 20:03:06 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i agree, just thought it was pertinent b/c they are much of the cause of this
2008-06-03 20:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not looking good here, are they?
2008-06-03 20:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a good question
2008-06-03 20:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again
2008-06-03 20:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this question has been asked before during other correctional periods as well
2008-06-03 20:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to...well...the caveman days
2008-06-03 20:04:11 [Message] frank -> Main Room: correctional periods in the market or the financials?
2008-06-03 20:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's always going to be sectors that have a heavier weight than others - both up and down
2008-06-03 20:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BKX&p=W&st=2003-01-01&i=t55339336826&r=1222
2008-06-03 20:06:06 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i guess, the reason for the questions is simple, commodities look toppy, banks don't look like they have bottomed and together they make up what, like 40% of the sp500?
2008-06-03 20:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, the financials do
2008-06-03 20:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the A/D line of the interest rate sensitive issues is just below its all time highs
2008-06-03 20:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...could it be that a select few irresponsible companies are paying the price for their errs, while the greater majority of issues are holding up?
2008-06-03 20:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what the market wants you to believe - this is what the media wants you to believe
2008-06-03 20:07:49 [Message] frank -> Main Room: quite possibly, its the biggest banks that had the most money to leverage
2008-06-03 20:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and that's irresponsible
2008-06-03 20:08:06 [Message] frank -> Main Room: correct
2008-06-03 20:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are getting smacked on the backside
2008-06-03 20:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when they learn that you can only play games for only so long, common sense takes over
2008-06-03 20:08:47 [Message] frank -> Main Room: how long can the market avoid them getting smacked when they are so important to the economy, with lending, etc...
2008-06-03 20:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some look at this as Armageddon, others look at this as productive
2008-06-03 20:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are they that important?
2008-06-03 20:09:00 [Message] frank -> Main Room: its both
2008-06-03 20:09:11 [Message] frank -> Main Room: depends who you are
2008-06-03 20:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it depends on how you live your life
2008-06-03 20:09:21 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i thought so
2008-06-03 20:09:48 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i mean, without them, how do people buy houses, cars, grow business, etc...
2008-06-03 20:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with all of the gloom and doom out there, there is some 85% of the people still out there that still pay their debt on time
2008-06-03 20:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we only hear about the ones that don't
2008-06-03 20:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we don't have the full story either as this wouldn't be very PC
2008-06-03 20:10:33 [Message] frank -> Main Room: its not media hype that the banks just simply are not lending
2008-06-03 20:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to ST's question
2008-06-03 20:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the A/D charts shown are a progression
2008-06-03 20:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I show the composite first
2008-06-03 20:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I show a derivative of only the commons's second
2008-06-03 20:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and show further derivatives...the preferred (which are debt and stock)
2008-06-03 20:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then the Bond Closed end funds
2008-06-03 20:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each one is a building block
2008-06-03 20:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then finish it off with the gold data
2008-06-03 20:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point, I don't have any data on the commodity area that would beneficial
2008-06-03 20:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...yes...and the real estate area
2008-06-03 20:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was the first one to suggest contracting liquidity last June
2008-06-03 20:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to keep in mind that we have had some extraordinary circumstances over the last several years
2008-06-03 20:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one big thing is globalization in which we're (or at least I am) trying to get a technical handle on
2008-06-03 20:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if there's anything that is different enough that can make a big difference in our analysis it's that we're not a self contained economy anymore
2008-06-03 20:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: part of oil's advance has been based on supply and demand factors, and the other area is that of a lower dollar
2008-06-03 20:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as long as anything is priced in dollars remains this way, commodities will move higher in sympathy with this same valuation
2008-06-03 20:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a complex situation...not to be discounted
2008-06-03 20:16:11 [Message] frank -> Main Room: that is why i asked the question about the central banks conspiring, b/c all commods dominated in dollars
2008-06-03 20:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what I "think" really has no baring
2008-06-03 20:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the central banks are there to provide stability (perceived or otherwise)
2008-06-03 20:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe "conspiring" is an appropriate description - they are doing the best they can based on what they know
2008-06-03 20:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you wouldn't want the job
2008-06-03 20:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's been going on now for as long as I've been trading...and that's close to 40 years now
2008-06-03 20:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the play is always the same, only the players change over time
2008-06-03 20:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you hear from those who believe that "this is it!" is just another repeat of others who in the past have had this same idea
2008-06-03 20:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and means nothing as it relates to making money in stocks
2008-06-03 20:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the ONLY thing that matters is exactly how much capital there is out there for (possible) investment
2008-06-03 20:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the more the liquidity, the better the odds that this same capital is going to eventually find a home in one of the 4 asset classes
2008-06-03 20:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if three of the four are fully valued, the residual moves into gold
2008-06-03 20:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and gold will then rise in anticipation of the inflation that is caused by too much stimulus in the system
2008-06-03 20:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a savings account
2008-06-03 20:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once the spigot is turned the other way, this same money is then moved into other areas
2008-06-03 20:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...the spigot remains fully opened
2008-06-03 20:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is why gold has just bounced around - it has "fundamental" support
2008-06-03 20:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and only when the FED decides to reverse this current policy, is when gold will slow decline in value
2008-06-03 20:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: recent example
2008-06-03 20:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold topped out in March
2008-06-03 20:23:07 [Message] frank -> Main Room: what is the typical lag time when the easing cycle ends and tightening starts for it to be felt in the stock market
2008-06-03 20:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the FED was starting to give indications that continued reductions in the FED Funds rate was coming to a close
2008-06-03 20:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...usually... (he says tongue in cheek) - its 2 years loose....2 years tighten - or the 4 year business cycle
2008-06-03 20:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we were hit with so much liquidity after 9/11, this extended this cycle (at least as it relates to equities)
2008-06-03 20:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the problem today is that since we are global, any economic cycles in which we've become used to are either going to change or go away completely
2008-06-03 20:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are not self reliant anymore
2008-06-03 20:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: manufacturing is done across an ocean from us
2008-06-03 20:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a different political system (or systems)
2008-06-03 20:26:41 [Message] frank -> Main Room: last earnings season was led by the multinationals that derived over 50% of revenue overseas
2008-06-03 20:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some could call this a new age
2008-06-03 20:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-06-03 20:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this has kept the markets buoyant
2008-06-03 20:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: stock prices are still based on earnings, not just domestic ones, but in total
2008-06-03 20:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something of which we touched on (I think) last month
2008-06-03 20:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one thing that we all should be aware of though is that US stock prices in the past have really only topped out during times in which the dollar was RISING and not falling
2008-06-03 20:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for this same multinational reason
2008-06-03 20:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...we don't manufacture like we used to, but at the same time, we do provide jobs in other countries that do help in this same overall bottom line
2008-06-03 20:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very complex
2008-06-03 20:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me...I don't let it worry me
2008-06-03 20:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just follow the money
2008-06-03 20:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I could care less about who's doing what and to whom
2008-06-03 20:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all I want to do is keep ahead of the game
2008-06-03 20:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't do that by listening to opinions
2008-06-03 20:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can only do that by watching money
2008-06-03 20:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what it's doing
2008-06-03 20:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it knows more than I do
2008-06-03 20:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as money likes to make more money
2008-06-03 20:30:46 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: a rising dollar would surely seem to hurt tech stocks
2008-06-03 20:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would...but only short term
2008-06-03 20:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the best of both worlds right now for the dollar would be consolidation with a bearish slant
2008-06-03 20:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we can't go too low
2008-06-03 20:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would kill us consumer wise
2008-06-03 20:31:39 [Message] frank -> Main Room: what would be considered too low?
2008-06-03 20:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at gas
2008-06-03 20:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know
2008-06-03 20:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all
2008-06-03 20:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Oil at $40 was too high - the Dollar at 85 was too low
2008-06-03 20:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and still, today, the major market indices are higher than they were back then
2008-06-03 20:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is always a breaking point
2008-06-03 20:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you just concentrate on keeping ahead of things
2008-06-03 20:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will be in position to pick up opportunities that present themselves along the way
2008-06-03 20:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I mean...what advantage is there to listen to those that "we deserve" to be spanked?
2008-06-03 20:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that things are going into the bin - what purpose would it serve??
2008-06-03 20:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never understood it
2008-06-03 20:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then...how bad do things have to get to be "satisfied" ?
2008-06-03 20:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like the minimum wage - where does it become adequate?
2008-06-03 20:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if not 7.50, how about $10?
2008-06-03 20:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why not $20?
2008-06-03 20:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: $50?
2008-06-03 20:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the markets, if left alone, will always find balance
2008-06-03 20:35:56 [Message] frank -> Main Room: have there been any new price objectives given? if not, what would it take to get price objectives?
2008-06-03 20:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this little part of the technical world, the MCO would have to take out its respective high extremes over the last several months before any new price targets would be given
2008-06-03 20:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there must be enough energy to push beyond what has already been attained
2008-06-03 20:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like climbing a mountain
2008-06-03 20:37:30 [Message] frank -> Main Room: the price objectives question refers to up, or down
2008-06-03 20:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you only have enough stimulus to get to 10,000 ft, you're not going to go any higher until you get more "stimulus"
2008-06-03 20:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have none right now
2008-06-03 20:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are range bound
2008-06-03 20:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are choppy
2008-06-03 20:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and attempting to build on a divergent foundation
2008-06-03 20:38:24 [Message] frank -> Main Room: what would it take to get new price objectives lower? i know it would take new mco highs for upside objectives to be given
2008-06-03 20:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: new MCO lows
2008-06-03 20:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: below last summer
2008-06-03 20:38:52 [Message] frank -> Main Room: can you post the chart?
2008-06-03 20:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bigger picture - http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/nyra053008.gif
2008-06-03 20:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are in the process of being compressed
2008-06-03 20:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something BIG is going to happen soon
2008-06-03 20:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very big
2008-06-03 20:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trending big
2008-06-03 20:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we just don't know which way as yet
2008-06-03 20:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: indecision patterns are push and pull events
2008-06-03 20:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one day it's all red roses, the next day black ones
2008-06-03 20:40:30 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i have no idea how to read that chart.......ill just take your word for it
2008-06-03 20:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we can get money to make a decision here, all of the news events you hear about are just distractions
2008-06-03 20:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the chart is the ratio adjusted NYSE A/D Line
2008-06-03 20:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ratio adjusted meaning that we take a consistent number of 1000 stocks and plot an A/D line
2008-06-03 20:41:27 [Message] frank -> Main Room: oh, i thought we were looking at mco's
2008-06-03 20:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 1959 support line there are the previous all time highs
2008-06-03 20:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that the MCO only measures the short term TREND of the A/D line
2008-06-03 20:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so with the MCO below the zero line today, the short term trend is down (short term is generally that of 2-6 weeks)
2008-06-03 20:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but back to the A/D chart
2008-06-03 20:43:07 [Message] frank -> Main Room: 2-6 weeks below the zero? how long has it been below zero?
2008-06-03 20:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can see how congested we are right now...it's a mighty battle going on here
2008-06-03 20:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you don't have DP or access to the MCO?
2008-06-03 20:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: DP is Decisionpoint
2008-06-03 20:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will assume the answer is no
2008-06-03 20:44:48 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i have a link, but don't know how to post it
2008-06-03 20:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would suggest to either subscribe to DP (which is what we use in here during the chats) or....read the instructions below the typing box
2008-06-03 20:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going to move on
2008-06-03 20:45:43 [Message] frank -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/mcsumnyse.html
2008-06-03 20:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...you have the DP chart that SC posts
2008-06-03 20:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would humbly suggest to subscribe to DP...the wealth of information there is amazing for the price
2008-06-03 20:46:31 [Message] frank -> Main Room: didn't know if you snap back to zero, does that start the 2 to 6 weeks over again
2008-06-03 20:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can go month to month
2008-06-03 20:46:38 [Message] frank -> Main Room: or is that part of the existing
2008-06-03 20:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will really help
2008-06-03 20:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I do believe they show the yearly chart
2008-06-03 20:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the time above or below any oscillator zero line usually is about 2-6 weeks
2008-06-03 20:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there is more to this than meets the technical eye...
2008-06-03 20:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I need to move on...but do come up with any other questions in the next session
2008-06-03 20:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-06-03 20:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after snapping back to its zero line, it has now moved lower as was the anticipation from last Thursday
2008-06-03 20:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this has now moved the NYSE breadth MCSUM lower as well, from what can be called a small ledge pattern
2008-06-03 20:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we have discussed before, "ledges" form from where the MCSUM "falls off of" to the downside
2008-06-03 20:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they generally take place (or form) prior to the last selling sequence in the price pattern structure
2008-06-03 20:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our short term objective is for a test of the zero line
2008-06-03 20:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or at least some additional movement towards this same line of neutrality
2008-06-03 20:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which, in essence, would be a snapback of the 19 day EMA to or towards the 39 day EMA
2008-06-03 20:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some call this a "kiss back
2008-06-03 20:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will only be from this point in which a more secure forecast can be discussed for the intermediate term
2008-06-03 20:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it should also be pointed out that today's move lower in the MCO is giving us the possibility of bull divergence
2008-06-03 20:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this possibility becomes more in the probability area if the Open 10's are in "oversold" territory
2008-06-03 20:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which, according to ST, they are
2008-06-03 20:53:05 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: 1.19
2008-06-03 20:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow? really?
2008-06-03 20:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ MCO and MCSUM continue to move net sideways right now and this is shown by the price pattern itself
2008-06-03 20:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still looking like a pause if anything else
2008-06-03 20:55:18 [Message] frank -> Main Room: what type of move in either direction, would change the look?
2008-06-03 20:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going to hurry up a bit...though as we look through the charts tonight, continue to pay attention to the position of the various MCSUM's
2008-06-03 20:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money flow would change the look
2008-06-03 20:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not a move...it's direction
2008-06-03 20:56:12 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i meant in regards to advance/decline and price
2008-06-03 20:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: prices can only trend in one direction or the other only when money is leading the way
2008-06-03 20:56:18 [Message] frank -> Main Room: next class
2008-06-03 20:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: next class...hmmmm...
2008-06-03 20:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ummmm
2008-06-03 20:56:49 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i mean, ill ask again next class
2008-06-03 20:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-03 20:56:57 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i know you have to hurry
2008-06-03 20:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well the context of the wording is what's confusing both of us I think
2008-06-03 20:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're looking for money [i]flow[/i]
2008-06-03 20:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I'm referring to the flow of money
2008-06-03 20:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not all cut and dry
2008-06-03 20:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can't see it day to day
2008-06-03 20:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: week to week...yes...but it's more of a month to month thing
2008-06-03 20:58:36 [Message] frank -> Main Room: a better way to ask the question is if we see a 3 to 1 up or down day, would that change your opinion of a pause
2008-06-03 20:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might...but how would it affect the TREND of this same money flow?
2008-06-03 20:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 3 to 1 in either direction right now might not be our bell
2008-06-03 20:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might take another day or so of 3:1's or better to do this
2008-06-03 20:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that we are dealing with EMA's, and it's going to take more than a day of positive action to call us in the clear
2008-06-03 21:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not much more than that in negative action
2008-06-03 21:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at the trends right now
2008-06-03 21:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're all pretty close to zero
2008-06-03 21:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no trend
2008-06-03 21:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one taking command
2008-06-03 21:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: waiting...
2008-06-03 21:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which usually will give us a small point change in the MCO
2008-06-03 21:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so don't be surprised if we see another one tomorrow in preparation for Friday
2008-06-03 21:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is when something should finally "give"
2008-06-03 21:01:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Dave, looks like bullish divergence in naad and naud, in your charts?
2008-06-03 21:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: checking
2008-06-03 21:02:39 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Doesn't mean short term isn't down, though.
2008-06-03 21:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NAAD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p05438774662&a=118792179&r=865
2008-06-03 21:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check out the MCSUM
2008-06-03 21:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAUD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p82624453286&a=118792169&r=442
2008-06-03 21:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p79564382133&a=118792146&r=59
2008-06-03 21:04:15 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What I saw was that volume wasn't following the 'bearishness' in the breadth.
2008-06-03 21:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this one bothers me a bit - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p25716307635&a=118792131&r=119
2008-06-03 21:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...gotcha
2008-06-03 21:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too many avenues!
2008-06-03 21:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NYUD line does bother me though for the bullish case - we'll have to see how thing go in the next day or so
2008-06-03 21:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX and Dow breadth MCSUM's gapped below their zero lines today
2008-06-03 21:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2008-06-03 21:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you have to admire the toughness here
2008-06-03 21:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: liquidity is high
2008-06-03 21:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to swim against this kind of tide (shorting)
2008-06-03 21:07:04 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: the indexes are out of sync or trying to get in sync
2008-06-03 21:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check out the ceiling on the SML breadth MCSUM
2008-06-03 21:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed Doc
2008-06-03 21:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it will probably take a day or two to get things sorted out
2008-06-03 21:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe more
2008-06-03 21:08:44 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: RUT and MID continue with strength while Dow and OEX have taken it on the chin
2008-06-03 21:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice the possible small head and shoulders pattern on the Wilshire
2008-06-03 21:09:03 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: should be bullish intermediate term
2008-06-03 21:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's what we wanted...money out of the cream and into the broad market
2008-06-03 21:09:42 [Message] frank -> Main Room: the rut has lagged hasn't it? perhaps a little catch up?
2008-06-03 21:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are neutral
2008-06-03 21:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not likely Frank
2008-06-03 21:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like consolidation...there's too much stimulus right now
2008-06-03 21:10:23 [Message] frank -> Main Room: looks like the lagged to upside and lagging to downside
2008-06-03 21:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the spigot is full on, the basin is filling
2008-06-03 21:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: watch the VTO's now...getting close to "oversold" on some
2008-06-03 21:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we can get another day or so of softness...and hold plurality...we could have a nice bottom here
2008-06-03 21:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.03
2008-06-03 21:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.19
2008-06-03 21:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the 21 day SMA of NYSE TRIN is getting close to "oversold" too
2008-06-03 21:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.35
2008-06-03 21:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.03
2008-06-03 21:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: finally joining the "oversold" party
2008-06-03 21:13:06 [Message] frank -> Main Room: how long can they or do they usually stay in oversold
2008-06-03 21:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.20
2008-06-03 21:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.08
2008-06-03 21:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not long
2008-06-03 21:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like taking a basketball into the deep end of a pool and trying to hold it down below the surface
2008-06-03 21:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the ball will constantly fight its way to neutral
2008-06-03 21:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you let it go...and whoosh
2008-06-03 21:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the deeper you go...the bigger the whoosh
2008-06-03 21:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-06-03 21:14:56 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: My indicators are telling me that tomorrow maybe a big down day
2008-06-03 21:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: big? by how much?
2008-06-03 21:15:22 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: It could be 30 SPX points
2008-06-03 21:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2%?
2008-06-03 21:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: based on?
2008-06-03 21:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price structure?
2008-06-03 21:15:59 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: I could go into great detail on the configuration of technical indicators that I am seeing..
2008-06-03 21:16:08 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: yes price structure
2008-06-03 21:16:17 [Message] frank -> Main Room: using my technicals, i see same possibility - could be bigger than 30
2008-06-03 21:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..well, so be it...if it happens, and you catch it, great
2008-06-03 21:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that I don't see
2008-06-03 21:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're too "oversold"
2008-06-03 21:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at today's action and you'll get the same kind of picture for any sell off here
2008-06-03 21:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday variety...and firmness into the close
2008-06-03 21:17:30 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i agree that Friday is important
2008-06-03 21:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now...you have the NASDAQ Open 10 "oversold" too
2008-06-03 21:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like I've always said
2008-06-03 21:17:53 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: Based on Hurst, we likely had the 40wk low on the Friday 11 days ago and the 6-7 day low yesterday/today. Risk should be fairly low for the down side from here unless something unforeseen is cooking up.
2008-06-03 21:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price is secondary...only money flow is primary
2008-06-03 21:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the data tonight
2008-06-03 21:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would seem that something is bubbling below the surface again
2008-06-03 21:18:50 [Message] frank -> Main Room: you have anytime left to look at oih, slx?
2008-06-03 21:18:55 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: something negative?
2008-06-03 21:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a whipsaw here would not be surprising, but it would be unlikely
2008-06-03 21:19:00 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: On the other hand, if we have weakness tomorrow and if that weakness persists into the close with a climactic plurality, that may provide some cleansing for a trending move higher.
2008-06-03 21:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't want that Kaiser
2008-06-03 21:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would suggest that we're going to break to the downside
2008-06-03 21:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is very compressed here
2008-06-03 21:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have strong resistance above, and just as strong support below
2008-06-03 21:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when this tension breaks...the market is going to run
2008-06-03 21:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just don't have the information yet on what that may be....but the internals suggest the odds are a bit higher on the bull side
2008-06-03 21:20:56 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: you think something negative is bubbling under the surface here?
2008-06-03 21:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bears are not showing any kind of follow through here
2008-06-03 21:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...very positive
2008-06-03 21:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing has changed
2008-06-03 21:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Open 10's wouldn't be anywhere these levels if something bad was about to happen near term
2008-06-03 21:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe after some sort of relief from these "oversold" extremes, but for now, it would appear that we're going to be choppy for another day or so
2008-06-03 21:22:10 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i see a lot of sector rotation coming
2008-06-03 21:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: me too
2008-06-03 21:22:17 [Message] frank -> Main Room: lots and lots
2008-06-03 21:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: already seeing it
2008-06-03 21:22:30 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i mean big,
2008-06-03 21:22:44 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Fib...have the Open 10's every gone from oversold to deeply oversold on a downside breakdown?
2008-06-03 21:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I have to scoot...(I believe you Frank...as much as we saw in 2003)
2008-06-03 21:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh yes
2008-06-03 21:23:09 [Message] frank -> Main Room: referring to what in particular in 03?
2008-06-03 21:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: last summer...remember the Open 10 at 18?
2008-06-03 21:23:18 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: well if there ever has been a moment for a wave 3 moment, Hurst wise, we have the best set up in the last several months, since the August lows... and to get the masses going, they are going to have to run the Dow up
2008-06-03 21:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 2003 war lows Frank - in March
2008-06-03 21:23:57 [Message] frank -> Main Room: i will for sure take a look at that
2008-06-03 21:24:01 [Message] frank -> Main Room: ahh
2008-06-03 21:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...no one would expect a third wave higher here, would they?
2008-06-03 21:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm off
2008-06-03 21:24:21 [Message] frank -> Main Room: would anyone expect oil at $100?
2008-06-03 21:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-06-03 21:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat on Thursday
2008-06-03 21:24:36 [Message] Doc -> Main Room: ok see you
2008-06-03 21:24:37 [Message] ron1 -> Main Room: Thank you , Dave
2008-06-03 21:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-06-03 21:24:39 [Message] frank -> Main Room: thanks fib, great work
2008-06-03 21:24:50 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: Thanks. Fib.



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