All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics
 
Technical Watch > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 6/30/16
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,921
Posted Reply with quote  #1 
2016-06-30 16:00:16 fib1618: good day
2016-06-30 16:00:21 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-06-30 16:03:34 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-06-30 16:10:34 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-06-30 16:11:04 fib1618: after snapping back to the zero line on Tuesday
2016-06-30 16:11:21 fib1618: we saw good follow through buying on Wednesday and Thursday on the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2016-06-30 16:11:39 fib1618: and it finished today at the "magical" +51 level
2016-06-30 16:12:22 fib1618: so not only did we take out last Thursday's high point before Brexit
2016-06-30 16:12:41 fib1618: but we also have a crossover buy signal on the components
2016-06-30 16:12:53 fib1618: this now secures a price pattern low for the time being
2016-06-30 16:13:13 fib1618: and with any further strength, we should now be able to move to challenge the all time highs in the NYA
2016-06-30 16:13:28 fib1618: all dependent, of course, on the amplitude we see in the NYSE Composite data
2016-06-30 16:13:46 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-06-30 16:14:10 fib1618: and here we see that we're now moving into the congested zone we saw last week
2016-06-30 16:14:31 fib1618: where this instructed us that the market was compressed near term and that a large move was imminent
2016-06-30 16:14:46 fib1618: so in order to break above this level
2016-06-30 16:15:01 fib1618: we would need to also take out the NYSE CO MCO highs of early June to do so
2016-06-30 16:15:16 fib1618: that number is a +62
2016-06-30 16:16:03 fib1618: so, as far as the commons are concerned, the sellers need to step, HERE AND NOW, or they lose any control that the had going into Monday's bottom
2016-06-30 16:16:23 fib1618: looking at the price action of the NYA itself
2016-06-30 16:16:50 fib1618: and we see that we have now nearly closed last Friday's downside pattern gap
2016-06-30 16:17:31 fib1618: and one would think that it would take a solid push forward by the buyers on Friday/Monday to close the gap completely
2016-06-30 16:17:38 fib1618: aside from that
2016-06-30 16:17:55 fib1618: we continue to get exactly as the market dictated for the last 2-3 weeks
2016-06-30 16:18:11 fib1618: with a likely turn in the tide early this week
2016-06-30 16:18:21 fib1618: and a rally going into the July 4th holiday weekend
2016-06-30 16:18:44 fib1618: and for those wondering
2016-06-30 16:18:51 fib1618: the SPX is now up 3.02% for the week
2016-06-30 16:19:25 fib1618: with any close above last week's intraweek highs providing a strong reversal bar
2016-06-30 16:19:36 fib1618: and it would be strong enough to move to new all time highs
2016-06-30 16:19:40 fib1618: and more importantly
2016-06-30 16:19:56 fib1618: finally break us out of our 1 year consolidation pattern
2016-06-30 16:20:17 fib1618: BTW...for context
2016-06-30 16:20:35 fib1618: the SPX was down 1.63% last week
2016-06-30 16:20:46 fib1618: so the bulls continue to hold the cards here
2016-06-30 16:21:20 fib1618: and it would appear that the "surprise in the UK" was used as a final capitation buy point for the market makers
2016-06-30 16:21:38 fib1618: and that very important longer term lows are now in place
2016-06-30 16:21:48 fib1618: but...this is only based on the NYSE CO data
2016-06-30 16:21:56 fib1618: let's see if the rest of the market agrees
2016-06-30 16:22:40 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO has also shown good upside follow through to Tuesday's final purge
2016-06-30 16:23:01 fib1618: but it's a bit weaker than the CO MCO at this stage
2016-06-30 16:23:28 fib1618: which leaves the door open form some hesitation as we challenge the closing highs of last Thursday
2016-06-30 16:23:55 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-06-30 16:24:10 fib1618: and we see that we actually gaped back above the +750 level
2016-06-30 16:24:24 fib1618: although we remain below the congestion area from last week
2016-06-30 16:24:45 fib1618: so we have great promise here on continuing to succeed in driving prices still higher
2016-06-30 16:25:09 fib1618: but a bit more conviction would be necessary to do so
2016-06-30 16:25:16 fib1618: what we do have though now
2016-06-30 16:25:40 fib1618: is that the price lows of Monday are likely to hold for a while
2016-06-30 16:25:44 fib1618: or at the very least
2016-06-30 16:26:00 fib1618: have given us a price floor to work with moving forward
2016-06-30 16:26:38 fib1618: we also got good strength today in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-06-30 16:26:47 fib1618: as it has now cleared the +25 level
2016-06-30 16:27:02 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal in the components
2016-06-30 16:27:19 fib1618: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM holding at its zero line
2016-06-30 16:27:32 fib1618: now...it's just a matter of what we're given to work with
2016-06-30 16:27:58 fib1618: as we begin to close the MCSUM gap resistance zone first
2016-06-30 16:28:29 fib1618: with any take out of the hesitation point from last week a highly bullish event moving forward
2016-06-30 16:28:49 fib1618: which is at about the +150 level
2016-06-30 16:28:58 fib1618: on a personal note
2016-06-30 16:29:33 fib1618: I did like the way the market held in check after the Boris Johnson's announcement in the UK that he wouldn't run for PM
2016-06-30 16:29:47 fib1618: and after about 30 minutes of trading
2016-06-30 16:29:54 fib1618: the buyers really picked up the pace
2016-06-30 16:30:08 fib1618: so it was a good character move today by the bulls
2016-06-30 16:30:25 fib1618: as they seem to have things well in hand...at least for now
2016-06-30 16:30:45 fib1618: before going to the NDX...let me take a moment and check the BETS...one moment
2016-06-30 16:31:17 fib1618: new highs now on the AMEX Composite
2016-06-30 16:32:22 fib1618: tons of money moving into TSX Ventures now...watch the precious metals and oil near term
2016-06-30 16:33:17 fib1618: wow
2016-06-30 16:33:30 fib1618: NYUD, NYAD and NYUD all back to bullish configurations
2016-06-30 16:33:39 fib1618: BETS was +40 over the weekend
2016-06-30 16:33:43 fib1618: +45 on Tuesday
2016-06-30 16:33:46 fib1618: today?
2016-06-30 16:33:48 fib1618: +70
2016-06-30 16:33:51 fib1618: Buy
2016-06-30 16:33:52 thespookyone: wow
2016-06-30 16:34:05 fib1618: it looks the tide went out
2016-06-30 16:34:14 fib1618: and moved back in with a higher velocity
2016-06-30 16:34:19 fib1618: so, at this point
2016-06-30 16:34:25 thespookyone: like a tsunami
2016-06-30 16:34:26 fib1618: this was a rogue wave
2016-06-30 16:34:28 fib1618: yes sir
2016-06-30 16:34:38 fib1618: what probably happened here
2016-06-30 16:35:06 fib1618: is that there was a ton of long positions going into the vote because the polls said that it was a "stay"
2016-06-30 16:35:11 fib1618: and once that didn't happen
2016-06-30 16:35:24 fib1618: everyone ran for the revolving doors and yelled "fire!"
2016-06-30 16:35:41 fib1618: and once that emotionalism passed
2016-06-30 16:35:57 fib1618: the true technical condition of the market took over
2016-06-30 16:36:08 fib1618: anyway
2016-06-30 16:36:14 fib1618: quite a week...
2016-06-30 16:36:22 fib1618: we'll see how the BETS looks this weekend
2016-06-30 16:36:33 fib1618: OK...back to the NDX
2016-06-30 16:36:42 fib1618: oh wow!
2016-06-30 16:37:14 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO back to the +74 level
2016-06-30 16:37:40 fib1618: and needing only to move above +82 for prices to move to higher highs
2016-06-30 16:38:10 fib1618: any near term follow through would also cancel the SOB trigger given on Monday
2016-06-30 16:38:25 fib1618: and new all time highs would then be likely for the NASDAQ marketplace
2016-06-30 16:38:58 fib1618: when looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NDX breadth MCSUM
2016-06-30 16:39:10 fib1618: we see that it has already cleared last week's congestion point
2016-06-30 16:39:39 fib1618: so that's more like a scream (than a whisper) that we're about to at least challenge the all time highs fairly soon
2016-06-30 16:40:06 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-06-30 16:40:20 fib1618: well...what can I say?
2016-06-30 16:40:27 fib1618: new highs here we come
2016-06-30 16:40:43 fib1618: as this MCO has exploded to the upside
2016-06-30 16:41:25 fib1618: settling today at its highest levels since early March with a reading of +71
2016-06-30 16:41:42 fib1618: so as we kinda expected over the weekend
2016-06-30 16:41:58 fib1618: a very important price bottom has now been registered in the SPX
2016-06-30 16:42:20 fib1618: and all we need now is for the secondaries to take a bit more command to get this thing in gear
2016-06-30 16:42:59 fib1618: we note also that the SPX breadth MCSUM has also cleared its congestion zone from last week
2016-06-30 16:43:14 fib1618: so a challenge of the all time highs might be seen as early as tomorrow
2016-06-30 16:43:23 fib1618: (what a week!)
2016-06-30 16:43:41 fib1618: not to be outdone
2016-06-30 16:43:53 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is also at multi month highs
2016-06-30 16:44:05 fib1618: with a reading today of +77
2016-06-30 16:44:28 fib1618: now, putting our Elliott hat on for a moment
2016-06-30 16:44:55 fib1618: any take out the MCO highs in late February would then suggest a large degree of trend getting started
2016-06-30 16:45:33 fib1618: and if we use the consolidation as a platform to provide us with a price target objective
2016-06-30 16:45:35 fib1618: let me see....
2016-06-30 16:46:03 fib1618: any break above 940 would give us a target of...
2016-06-30 16:46:23 fib1618: hold on...I need a larger time frame to measure...
2016-06-30 16:47:04 fib1618: how's 1120 sound in the OEX?
2016-06-30 16:47:08 fib1618: let me check the SPX
2016-06-30 16:47:50 fib1618: whew!
2016-06-30 16:48:05 fib1618: any move above 2100 (we'll round it off) projects to 2700
2016-06-30 16:48:15 fib1618: a 600 point move
2016-06-30 16:48:36 fib1618: do we have the underlying strength in money flow to accomplish this?
2016-06-30 16:48:37 fib1618: yes
2016-06-30 16:49:02 fib1618: and we have record amounts of liquidity as well
2016-06-30 16:49:06 fib1618: wow
2016-06-30 16:49:14 fib1618: moving to the Dow breadth MCO
2016-06-30 16:49:49 fib1618: let me get a price measurement there first
2016-06-30 16:50:34 fib1618: and lo and behold
2016-06-30 16:50:51 fib1618: a break above 18,350 would give us a target of 22,850
2016-06-30 16:51:00 fib1618: and if that number sounds familiar
2016-06-30 16:51:19 fib1618: 22,000 on the Dow has been our very long term price objective given by the MCSUM back in 2009/2010
2016-06-30 16:51:31 fib1618: Oooook
2016-06-30 16:51:39 fib1618: so much for what could happen
2016-06-30 16:51:45 fib1618: let's see what we have now to work with
2016-06-30 16:52:07 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is also at multi month highs and a point away from its March highs
2016-06-30 16:52:45 fib1618: and as we see on the daily Dow breadth MCSUM
2016-06-30 16:53:20 fib1618: we have a large expansion gap now above last week's high point
2016-06-30 16:53:42 fib1618: this would then suggest that the price lows of Monday are going to hold for a while
2016-06-30 16:54:20 fib1618: with any move above the early June highs increasing the odds of all time highs in the Dow Industrials
2016-06-30 16:54:33 fib1618: so far...it looks like the bulls are going to have a good summer
2016-06-30 16:54:54 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO came in with a reading of +59 today
2016-06-30 16:55:02 fib1618: a good move...
2016-06-30 16:55:04 fib1618: but as we see
2016-06-30 16:55:30 fib1618: there is still some overhead resistance from early June that needs to be taken out before we're "in the clear"
2016-06-30 16:55:54 fib1618: as with the NYSE and NASDAQ
2016-06-30 16:56:09 fib1618: the MID breadth MCSUM has yet to clear its congestion point
2016-06-30 16:56:33 fib1618: but if it and the other indices do so
2016-06-30 16:56:55 fib1618: not only will there be a challenge of the all time highs
2016-06-30 16:57:18 fib1618: but we would likely be able to stay above them...and then improve upon that
2016-06-30 16:57:43 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO continues to trail in strength
2016-06-30 16:57:54 fib1618: coming in today with a reading of +45
2016-06-30 16:58:01 fib1618: which is where the NYSE Composite MCO is
2016-06-30 16:58:34 fib1618: so a more well rounded buying spree would be needed in order to get the engine purring again
2016-06-30 16:58:43 fib1618: but nothing here is being left behind
2016-06-30 16:58:51 fib1618: we're just a bit sloppy on the reflex
2016-06-30 16:59:13 fib1618: and when we pull this altogether
2016-06-30 16:59:30 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO only came in today with a reading of +35
2016-06-30 16:59:53 fib1618: and that's not nearly enough to push the overall market into new all time high territory
2016-06-30 17:00:27 fib1618: but it is enough now to challenge last Thursday's close
2016-06-30 17:00:45 fib1618: and unless we get increasing strength here
2016-06-30 17:01:01 fib1618: (which would be really something considering the last day or so of breadth plurality)
2016-06-30 17:01:23 fib1618: then we should be able to easily move out of our 1 year trading range
2016-06-30 17:01:30 fib1618: so...
2016-06-30 17:01:52 fib1618: those areas that had bull divergence on Tuesday have seen the best of the gains so far
2016-06-30 17:02:07 fib1618: while those that moved to new lows are trying their best to keep up
2016-06-30 17:02:16 fib1618: taken together
2016-06-30 17:02:34 fib1618: it's not likely that we're going to break to new highs as yet
2016-06-30 17:03:08 fib1618: that it will take at least a day or two of consolidation to digest this rush of liquidity moving back to shore
2016-06-30 17:03:26 fib1618: and then hopefully we'll have better continuity to work with
2016-06-30 17:03:31 fib1618: so far
2016-06-30 17:03:47 fib1618: we haven't seen enough of a reversal to call for higher highs past tomorrow
2016-06-30 17:04:15 fib1618: so we have to be careful that this might be a last hurrah into the projected cyclical high as well
2016-06-30 17:04:29 fib1618: and then spend the first half of July consolidating
2016-06-30 17:05:00 fib1618: bottom line...we need to see better and broader amplitude in the small caps and secondaries
2016-06-30 17:05:10 fib1618: and then we'll be fine
2016-06-30 17:05:13 fib1618: for now
2016-06-30 17:05:22 fib1618: we're basically where we were before the vote
2016-06-30 17:05:48 fib1618: making this, in essence, a continuation of the larger trading range
2016-06-30 17:05:53 fib1618: with a slight downside trip and fall
2016-06-30 17:06:11 fib1618: moving to the XLY breadth MCO
2016-06-30 17:06:29 fib1618: and here too we're at levels not seen since early March
2016-06-30 17:06:55 fib1618: which makes this quite an exciting juncture
2016-06-30 17:07:46 fib1618: as any take out of the late February/early March high points in this MCO would allow prices to breakout and trend higher
2016-06-30 17:07:56 fib1618: I know one thing's for sure
2016-06-30 17:08:18 fib1618: having been shopping for "discretionary" items for the last couple of weeks
2016-06-30 17:08:27 fib1618: when people are buying
2016-06-30 17:08:48 fib1618: I've noticed they are taking full advantage of no interest credit buying
2016-06-30 17:09:13 fib1618: and this can range from 6 months to an astounding 6 years
2016-06-30 17:09:28 fib1618: have no idea how the creditor makes money on this
2016-06-30 17:09:39 fib1618: well...I do
2016-06-30 17:09:56 fib1618: the seller pays a fee to the bank to extend this credit
2016-06-30 17:10:14 fib1618: but that's a lot of outstanding debt being run up
2016-06-30 17:10:18 fib1618: but at the same time
2016-06-30 17:10:31 fib1618: it doesn't sound so bad when it's at zero percent
2016-06-30 17:10:45 fib1618: unless...you don't pay it on time...and then you're hit hard
2016-06-30 17:10:51 fib1618: in any event
2016-06-30 17:10:59 fib1618: people are buying longer term items
2016-06-30 17:11:18 fib1618: which is better than what was happening earlier in the year
2016-06-30 17:11:25 fib1618: so there's that
2016-06-30 17:11:57 fib1618: notice also that the XLY breadth MCSUM is now showing good strength above its zero line
2016-06-30 17:12:15 fib1618: so it looks like we have a solid buy signal there
2016-06-30 17:12:24 fib1618: moving to the XLP
2016-06-30 17:12:32 fib1618: HA!
2016-06-30 17:12:41 fib1618: wow
2016-06-30 17:12:55 fib1618: boy...I'll tell one thing
2016-06-30 17:12:58 fib1618: we had this one pegged
2016-06-30 17:13:04 fib1618: too funny
2016-06-30 17:13:05 fib1618: wow
2016-06-30 17:13:21 fib1618: OK...well
2016-06-30 17:13:50 fib1618: that leading pattern sequence we talked about over the last couple of weeks has now turned into a large upside move today
2016-06-30 17:14:06 fib1618: with this sector up an amazing 2.24% today!
2016-06-30 17:14:07 fib1618: wow
2016-06-30 17:14:28 fib1618: notice the breakout to highs highs in the XLP breadth MCSUM as well
2016-06-30 17:14:45 fib1618: which when we're this extended
2016-06-30 17:14:54 fib1618: this is pretty much textbook stuff
2016-06-30 17:15:01 fib1618: this is what happens when you're highly "overbought" and get stronger
2016-06-30 17:15:14 fib1618: note that we also cleared above the +1250 level today
2016-06-30 17:15:20 fib1618: so this one has a ways to run
2016-06-30 17:15:32 fib1618: and remains a solid buy
2016-06-30 17:15:57 fib1618: small point change in the XLE breadth MCO tonight
2016-06-30 17:16:17 fib1618: and though we have bullish divergence in place
2016-06-30 17:16:31 fib1618: until we take out the double top highs of June
2016-06-30 17:16:38 fib1618: there is no trigger
2016-06-30 17:17:17 fib1618: my spidey sense here says that there's too many folks looking for higher highs in oil
2016-06-30 17:17:32 fib1618: so best to watch this one from the sidelines
2016-06-30 17:17:39 fib1618: and if the strength comes in...follow it given where we are in the XLE breadth MCSUM
2016-06-30 17:18:07 fib1618: we should know by Tuesday
2016-06-30 17:18:41 fib1618: no doubt though in the XLF now
2016-06-30 17:19:16 fib1618: as we have now moved to the highest levels seen in the XLF breadth MCO since early March
2016-06-30 17:19:41 fib1618: coming in with a +96
2016-06-30 17:20:13 fib1618: and now we're getting some good gap expansion to the upside in the XLF breadth MCSUM
2016-06-30 17:20:20 fib1618: looking at the price action
2016-06-30 17:21:09 fib1618: and after a probe below support at $22
2016-06-30 17:21:24 fib1618: the pattern still has a way to go to confirm a base
2016-06-30 17:21:45 fib1618: given that we have seen things like this in the past
2016-06-30 17:21:56 fib1618: and that interest rates are likely to remain low for quite a while
2016-06-30 17:22:18 fib1618: maybe it's better to keep watching this one short term...but at least we have something substantive to work with now
2016-06-30 17:22:50 fib1618: another positive is that everyone was pretty much dumping anything bank related after the UK vote
2016-06-30 17:23:13 fib1618: and that's the kind of capitulation that leads to major rally's
2016-06-30 17:23:27 dand64: ISEE came in at 58 today.  Still unwinding the Brexit plunge, or sign of speculators all getting on the same side of the trade?
2016-06-30 17:24:07 fib1618: my thinking is that most are still "believing" that what happened last week is bearish longer term
2016-06-30 17:24:21 fib1618: keeping in mind that those who losing side of the vote have been the promoters of this same negative outcome as to punish
2016-06-30 17:24:51 fib1618: these same promoters usually have the backing of the staunch bears out there
2016-06-30 17:25:04 fib1618: so they're looking at this as being nothing by short covering
2016-06-30 17:25:08 fib1618: and once it's done
2016-06-30 17:25:10 fib1618: we can then crash
2016-06-30 17:25:21 fib1618: time after time we see these set ups
2016-06-30 17:25:35 fib1618: and they usually come out with the speculators holding the bag
2016-06-30 17:25:47 fib1618: now...as a sentiment tool
2016-06-30 17:26:16 fib1618: low numbers in the ISEE actually suggest that we have too many sellers for selling to continue
2016-06-30 17:26:22 fib1618: we're too washed out
2016-06-30 17:26:45 fib1618: and given that all three market TRIN's moving below 2.00 over the last week
2016-06-30 17:27:07 fib1618: it's a fairly good bet that anyone who wanted to sell...has
2016-06-30 17:27:17 fib1618: and that only leaves buyers
2016-06-30 17:27:52 fib1618: we're overwhelmed with global liquidity
2016-06-30 17:28:03 fib1618: so that will cushion any surprises
2016-06-30 17:28:14 fib1618: and one other thing to consider here
2016-06-30 17:28:16 fib1618: is that
2016-06-30 17:28:57 fib1618: if the bears can't muster up any sellers after we've been told that the UK leaving the EU is somehow the most bearish, recessionary thing we can see happen at this stage
2016-06-30 17:29:23 fib1618: then the sellers have nothing left as far as ammunition is concerned
2016-06-30 17:29:52 fib1618: and this IS the psychological backdrop of any and all Elliott 3rd wave structures
2016-06-30 17:30:06 fib1618: Elliott aside
2016-06-30 17:30:20 fib1618: it's also a sign of a major price low
2016-06-30 17:30:33 fib1618: for you find less in the way selling at tops
2016-06-30 17:30:52 fib1618: and you receive the greatest amount of selling at or near the bottom
2016-06-30 17:31:01 fib1618: it's a process
2016-06-30 17:31:16 fib1618: and we have all been in this quandary
2016-06-30 17:31:21 fib1618: the market starts to sell off
2016-06-30 17:31:28 fib1618: you think...well..."it's a pullback"
2016-06-30 17:31:32 fib1618: not a problem
2016-06-30 17:31:38 fib1618: then it moves lower again
2016-06-30 17:31:42 fib1618: and now "it's a correction"
2016-06-30 17:31:47 fib1618: "it's healthy for the market"
2016-06-30 17:31:53 fib1618: and you keep you long positions
2016-06-30 17:31:59 fib1618: the market moves lower still
2016-06-30 17:32:14 fib1618: and now you think "well...If i sell, my luck, I will sell at the bottom"
2016-06-30 17:32:17 fib1618: and you don't
2016-06-30 17:32:22 fib1618: you get the relief rally
2016-06-30 17:32:27 fib1618: and you say..."ah ha...I knew it!!"
2016-06-30 17:32:46 fib1618: and this continues until you can't take any more
2016-06-30 17:32:49 fib1618: and sell at any price
2016-06-30 17:32:54 fib1618: and I think we can all agree
2016-06-30 17:33:03 fib1618: that what happened on Friday
2016-06-30 17:33:10 fib1618: and especially on Monday
2016-06-30 17:33:18 fib1618: was sellers selling at "any price"
2016-06-30 17:33:29 fib1618: but technically
2016-06-30 17:33:44 fib1618: we knew that this as more than likely a bottom
2016-06-30 17:33:59 fib1618: as long as certain internal levels held
2016-06-30 17:34:01 fib1618: now on Tuesday
2016-06-30 17:34:07 fib1618: we had a mixed picture
2016-06-30 17:34:27 fib1618: but we also knew that we had enough of a sell off to where a reflex rally would begin at any time
2016-06-30 17:34:49 fib1618: and now...we have moved beyond what we would consider "obligatory"
2016-06-30 17:35:06 fib1618: still...there are some problems that need to be sorted
2016-06-30 17:35:22 fib1618: but the strength here is far larger than those who are just covering shorts
2016-06-30 17:35:48 fib1618: anyway...moving on
2016-06-30 17:36:22 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO has now moved above both of its blip resistance points
2016-06-30 17:36:29 fib1618: and as we discussed last week
2016-06-30 17:36:39 fib1618: this was needed in order to secure a price low
2016-06-30 17:37:10 fib1618: note also that we were able to turn higher after the challenge of the +250 level
2016-06-30 17:37:17 fib1618: so, for now, this is also a buy with bull divergence triggered today
2016-06-30 17:38:47 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO has now moved from a reading of -80 on Monday to today's +67
2016-06-30 17:38:55 fib1618: not enough to take out the early June highs though
2016-06-30 17:39:17 fib1618: and this will be needed to help out the INDU and the Transports
2016-06-30 17:40:07 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO barely took out its June highs today
2016-06-30 17:40:47 fib1618: good follow through there would be constructive evidence that a price bottom has been laid
2016-06-30 17:41:20 fib1618: and looking at the 21 day close up chart of the XLB breadth MCSUM
2016-06-30 17:41:40 fib1618: and we see that it's now just clearing above its congestion area from last week
2016-06-30 17:42:05 fib1618: with any move back above +750 a big positive for this group of issues
2016-06-30 17:42:21 fib1618: LOL!
2016-06-30 17:42:26 fib1618: look at the XLU!
2016-06-30 17:42:28 fib1618: wow
2016-06-30 17:42:43 fib1618: well...one thing's for sure
2016-06-30 17:42:53 fib1618: the defensive issues are being bought...with both hands
2016-06-30 17:43:28 fib1618: and if the XLU breadth MCO takes out its June highs
2016-06-30 17:43:39 fib1618: that would allow the XLU breadth MCSUM to continue to higher highs
2016-06-30 17:43:53 fib1618: and...we should see an even larger move to the upside for prices
2016-06-30 17:44:13 fib1618: still...being up 2.16% in one day is nothing to sneeze at
2016-06-30 17:44:50 fib1618: and that's on top of a dividend of 3.27%
2016-06-30 17:44:58 fib1618: so...
2016-06-30 17:45:19 fib1618: the market continues to fill the vacuum created by last weeks "UK surprise"
2016-06-30 17:45:48 fib1618: but we're seeing more than enough strength now for prices to continue to move beyond of what was expected
2016-06-30 17:45:54 fib1618: blueprint wise
2016-06-30 17:46:17 fib1618: our expectation of a rally going into this weekend's holiday period has been spot on
2016-06-30 17:46:38 fib1618: but we have so many conflicts here that we're not exactly sure if it will extend beyond this
2016-06-30 17:46:57 fib1618: so any further strength from this juncture would suggest higher prices into next week
2016-06-30 17:47:18 fib1618: and if we start seeing the MCO highs of March start to be taken out
2016-06-30 17:47:29 fib1618: we could see prices rally for much of the summer
2016-06-30 17:47:35 fib1618: at least through mid August
2016-06-30 17:48:02 fib1618: and what happened last Friday and Monday will look like a lonely blip on the longer term chart
2016-06-30 17:48:05 fib1618: and why...
2016-06-30 17:48:15 fib1618: you can never, EVER, get emotional trading
2016-06-30 17:48:27 fib1618: you must continue to practice discipline
2016-06-30 17:48:31 fib1618: and above all else
2016-06-30 17:48:51 fib1618: you MUST believe in your indicators
2016-06-30 17:48:56 fib1618: OBV's...
2016-06-30 17:49:34 fib1618: CVI's are indicating that we will now see a price high in the next two trading sessions
2016-06-30 17:50:16 fib1618: but with the STVO's still on the south side of zero
2016-06-30 17:50:27 fib1618: with the VTO's rising toward zero
2016-06-30 17:50:38 fib1618: any price top here will only be of a near term nature
2016-06-30 17:50:58 fib1618: and that we'll likely see firmness going into next week's jobs numbers
2016-06-30 17:51:15 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.00
2016-06-30 17:51:25 fib1618: Open 10 now at 1.27
2016-06-30 17:51:30 fib1618: and continuing to be deeply "oversold"
2016-06-30 17:51:41 fib1618: as it has been for the last 3 days
2016-06-30 17:52:11 fib1618: so, why not making it another positive day of more than 1% tomorrow?
2016-06-30 17:52:17 fib1618: regardless
2016-06-30 17:52:51 fib1618: highs numbers like this in the Open 10 will make it difficult for the sellers to show any kind of price decay for the time being
2016-06-30 17:53:02 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .60
2016-06-30 17:53:16 fib1618: Open 10 still "oversold" at 1.11
2016-06-30 17:53:31 fib1618: TM TRIN at .73
2016-06-30 17:53:38 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.21
2016-06-30 17:54:17 fib1618: and this pretty much tells us that any pause to refresh over the next couple of days is likely to be for hours as opposed to days
2016-06-30 17:54:27 fib1618: so..
2016-06-30 17:54:48 fib1618: could be that we picked the exact bottom here
2016-06-30 17:55:05 fib1618: just need a bit more of a push to confirm it
2016-06-30 17:55:09 fib1618: and above all else
2016-06-30 17:55:23 fib1618: we really need to see money move into the small caps and secondaries
2016-06-30 17:56:09 fib1618: in what should be rotation from the "overbought" large caps
2016-06-30 17:56:19 fib1618: so watch rotation carefully here for confirmation
2016-06-30 17:56:23 fib1618: anything else?
2016-06-30 17:57:23 thespookyone: nope
2016-06-30 17:57:34 dand64: Good here.
2016-06-30 17:57:43 fib1618: then my work is done
2016-06-30 17:57:51 fib1618: everyone have a super duper weekend
2016-06-30 17:57:59 fib1618: and we'll see how things are going on Tuesday
2016-06-30 17:58:00 thespookyone: have a great holiday
2016-06-30 17:58:01 fib1618: good night
2016-06-30 17:58:02 dand64: Thank you Dave. You too.
__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.





Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch