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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-06-26 19:03:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Hello, comments on market action?
2008-06-26 19:04:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Very oversold, but not sure if bottoming yet
2008-06-26 19:04:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: last time we said, "So, good time for a bounce, but not so oversold it could not get more so.... "
2008-06-26 19:05:00 [Message] kemo -> Main Room: How did volume end up? I could not check today
2008-06-26 19:05:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So we got both, DCB and BDCL
2008-06-26 19:06:16 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: RIMM was interesting. In a bull mkt, would have blown to 160. Instead...
2008-06-26 19:06:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Not looking much like a bull market
2008-06-26 19:07:18 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: nope
2008-06-26 19:07:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So anybody want to take lead?
2008-06-26 19:07:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Where is Fib when you need him?
2008-06-26 19:08:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, why don't we start with the components?
2008-06-26 19:09:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: like 5% and 10%....those components?
2008-06-26 19:09:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, NYSE
2008-06-26 19:09:27 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: composite, sorry
2008-06-26 19:09:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, ok
2008-06-26 19:09:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: You first
2008-06-26 19:10:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: CO mco surged back down after DCB yesterday
2008-06-26 19:11:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What's interesting is that it stopped at the same place it had twice before. Almost like a triple bottom
2008-06-26 19:11:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: good gap expansion down on MCSUM....bears rule the landscape
2008-06-26 19:12:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Components too, downtrend in place
2008-06-26 19:13:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, we will see later what vol oscillators and trins look like....but from what I have seen so far, not all that bottom looking
2008-06-26 19:13:12 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But there's that little potential divergence taking place in MCO itself right at support, see it?
2008-06-26 19:14:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, dd, see it
2008-06-26 19:14:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: hope springs eternal
2008-06-26 19:14:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: something for bulls to cling to besides guns and religion
2008-06-26 19:15:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But it's also in the RA, and at a place of previous support
2008-06-26 19:16:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, same story on ratio adjusted as CO
2008-06-26 19:18:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looks like we're right at MCSUM rising bottoms on the RA
2008-06-26 19:18:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: and booking negative MCSUM daily
2008-06-26 19:19:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same story different index for NASDAQ
2008-06-26 19:19:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: On volume McSum for RA, has already hit -600
2008-06-26 19:20:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: pretty much same story NDX, but definitive break of MCSUM rising bottoms
2008-06-26 19:21:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: implication DD?
2008-06-26 19:21:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Volume leading to downside?
2008-06-26 19:21:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes
2008-06-26 19:21:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But don't know what it means
2008-06-26 19:22:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same story different index - SPX
2008-06-26 19:22:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think bearish DD
2008-06-26 19:23:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: definitive break on SPX of MCSUM rising bottoms line......bears rule the land
2008-06-26 19:23:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think Fib would say all the major indexes are in sync.....a bearish sync
2008-06-26 19:24:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Boy, this is easy tonight....keep seeing same chart over and over....
2008-06-26 19:24:33 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 19:24:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: On the SPX, McSum has also reached a place of traditional support, maybe some chopping around? Starting on Monday?
2008-06-26 19:25:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Excuse me, that was on volume, once again.
2008-06-26 19:25:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: More of same for OEX
2008-06-26 19:25:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Money really flowing out.
2008-06-26 19:25:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am going to go out on limb and say we test March lows
2008-06-26 19:26:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Will they hold.....we decide later....
2008-06-26 19:27:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The thing is, what does it mean when volume has reached McSum support and breadth hasn't?
2008-06-26 19:27:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looks like new low for 2008 for DOW and MCSUM of DOW as well
2008-06-26 19:27:54 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: Dow is already below March lows
2008-06-26 19:28:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Is volume leading or lagging?
2008-06-26 19:28:41 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: leading
2008-06-26 19:29:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I take that as a leading indicator, in this case bearish.....breadth follows volume
2008-06-26 19:29:17 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And this is interesting, on the Dow, the breadth Mcsum has already broken March and January lows
2008-06-26 19:29:44 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I think volume leading breadth means the market direction is caused by a selected number of stocks
2008-06-26 19:30:00 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: breadth leading volume means there is broad market participation in that direction
2008-06-26 19:30:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, tahiti
2008-06-26 19:31:20 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: ty ..trying to piece all this together is difficult.
2008-06-26 19:31:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So volume is flowing out of maybe the interest sensitive stocks?
2008-06-26 19:31:34 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Because there are no more cuts?
2008-06-26 19:31:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same story on the mid caps.....and rising MCSUM bottoms looks to be barely taken out as well
2008-06-26 19:32:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same tune with the small caps
2008-06-26 19:33:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same again on the TM, but have not taken out MCSUM bottoms line
2008-06-26 19:33:57 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: DD, it has been the case prior to this week.
2008-06-26 19:34:27 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: But these two days, it is the baby and the bath water
2008-06-26 19:34:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Volume oscillators would support a rally any time, IMO
2008-06-26 19:34:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Wow, small caps just blew past -250. Remember Fib said that that was an important mark?
2008-06-26 19:35:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Anybody got the book marks for Fib's combo charts? and can post them here?
2008-06-26 19:35:52 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Which ones?  These?
2008-06-26 19:35:54 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p05438774662&a=118792179&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:35:57 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: Question, Would someone explain the Trin. Both the daily & 10 day average. What is Considered over sold & over bought ??
2008-06-26 19:36:00 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAUD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p82624453286&a=118792169&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:36:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p79564382133&a=118792146&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:36:12 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p25716307635&a=118792131&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:36:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes....tahiti
2008-06-26 19:37:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will MsB ....later
2008-06-26 19:40:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Wow, tahiti, those are some nice (yet bearish) charts.....been studying what you posted
2008-06-26 19:40:21 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Those are Fib's charts
2008-06-26 19:40:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, and a nice job Fib did with the notes
2008-06-26 19:41:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thank you Fib wherever you are
2008-06-26 19:41:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, but TM, particularly on Nasdaq, I am seeing McSum breadth support here.
2008-06-26 19:42:46 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: From December and February. Not saying it will go up, but could be some chop here.
2008-06-26 19:43:51 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: TEXTURE
2008-06-26 19:44:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well we blew thru the gap support, dd.  But not yet too the rising bottoms on NASDAQ,  Is that what you mean?
2008-06-26 19:45:40 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: I always hear that what everyone knows is not worth knowing.  Look at the Dow failures at 50 and 200 ma
2008-06-26 19:46:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NYSE trin 2.03, open 10 trin at 1.05
2008-06-26 19:47:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, if you look at December and February, this is where the McSum topped before turning down, it creates support for texture, also the little ledge in April...all at -600
2008-06-26 19:47:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MSB.  on open 10,  .9 would be neutral, .8 overbought.  and 1.0 oversold
2008-06-26 19:48:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, DD, I think you are on to an area of support.....something for the bulls
2008-06-26 19:49:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: maybe only tech
2008-06-26 19:49:43 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: for a few days
2008-06-26 19:49:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Sins NYSE trin 2.03.....good probability of bounce tomorrow....but nothing guaranteed
2008-06-26 19:50:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MSB, there are some dashed lines to reference on the DP charts that can also be helpful re overbought/oversold on the trins
2008-06-26 19:52:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NASDAQ trin 2.10 and open 10 at .97
2008-06-26 19:53:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Interesting that for all the selling, NASDAQ barely oversold if any
2008-06-26 19:53:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NASDAQ trin over 2.0, so fair odds of a bounce tomorrow
2008-06-26 19:54:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: DCB?
2008-06-26 19:55:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: TM trin 2.23 and open 10 at 1.01......minimal floor
2008-06-26 19:55:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Those DCs like to B
2008-06-26 19:57:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, the open 10 trins on the oversold side of neutral, but if you look at the charts MsB, they can get a lot more oversold.
2008-06-26 19:59:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, anybody want to put a stake in the sand and call tomorrow's market?  IT, you got to be bearish.....me thinks
2008-06-26 19:59:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Drums rolling..........
2008-06-26 20:00:59 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Friday.....no rally before the weekend.....my call is for more downside
2008-06-26 20:01:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am looking for testing march lows....not much to go for SPX, much lower on NASDAQ to get to test those March lows
2008-06-26 20:01:54 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Vix and Vxn have a little ways to go yet before panic sets in
2008-06-26 20:02:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I'm not seeing any panic.....that makes me panic
2008-06-26 20:02:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DD, what's your prognosticate on VIX?  Whether you believe it or not.....
2008-06-26 20:03:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Reached hourly projections today
2008-06-26 20:03:47 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: That's funny, I was just looking at it when you asked
2008-06-26 20:04:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Great minds.......and all that
2008-06-26 20:04:20 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Daily points to 28!
2008-06-26 20:04:46 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And it's a double penetration, more accurate, or so they say
2008-06-26 20:04:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Not a very high VIX so far.....not "bottom like", IMO
2008-06-26 20:04:48 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Is that based on Hurst method DD?
2008-06-26 20:05:48 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The thing is, it's reached that kiss-back on the broken uptrend line again.
2008-06-26 20:06:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What does that portend?
2008-06-26 20:06:40 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, if it penetrates it it's very good for the VIX, if not, it's very bullish.
2008-06-26 20:07:06 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: It starts 4/16/07
2008-06-26 20:07:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: penetrates means?  go up?
2008-06-26 20:08:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And it actually starts in Feb of 07, so it's very important support that was broken...
2008-06-26 20:08:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: on 4/14
2008-06-26 20:10:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So the 28, would surely be a bearish market down thrust....and maybe a bottom soon after?
2008-06-26 20:10:55 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Only if it makes it, the broken uptrend line resistance is exactly smack on here
2008-06-26 20:11:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So next few days are critical. Question to the board, if money is flowing out, where is it rotating to right now?
2008-06-26 20:11:58 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: The Fed is draining money out...
2008-06-26 20:12:13 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I guess gold went up...
2008-06-26 20:12:23 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: And oil
2008-06-26 20:13:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, things are oversold, but could be more oversold.....(that is what happens in bear markets)......  And we could easily get a ST bounce anytime in here. 
2008-06-26 20:14:18 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Bear market rallies are very violent. Nobody wins.
2008-06-26 20:14:56 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Yes, it is very uncomfortable to be short.
2008-06-26 20:15:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am playing the short side and keeping a close eye on my stops.....and would flip long if I am nimble enough for a ST Rally.
2008-06-26 20:15:36 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I am flat right now - too oversold and no divergence yet.
2008-06-26 20:15:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Except for some minor credit spreads on energy
2008-06-26 20:16:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am mostly Flat DD.....just talking about what I do have in market
2008-06-26 20:16:41 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I am short and sitting on the edge of my chair.
2008-06-26 20:16:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, I got the sell off I called for back in May, but it wasn't fast and furious.
2008-06-26 20:17:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I was predicting it sooner.....left money on the table for the next guy
2008-06-26 20:17:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: or gal
2008-06-26 20:17:32 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 20:17:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am very PC
2008-06-26 20:17:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Where is it, I can't find it
2008-06-26 20:17:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 20:18:02 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: (the money on the table)
2008-06-26 20:18:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 20:18:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, you had to be there......where were you?
2008-06-26 20:18:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: LOL
2008-06-26 20:18:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: OK, so I'll call for some days of chop here.
2008-06-26 20:19:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So folks, any other things to add?
2008-06-26 20:19:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MsB, did I answer you questions?
2008-06-26 20:20:29 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I am looking for a quick swoosh and a bottom towards the end of next week.
2008-06-26 20:20:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What's a swoosh?
2008-06-26 20:21:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, tahiti......You are in the "not now" bounce camp then?
2008-06-26 20:21:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: downwards action
2008-06-26 20:21:47 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: possible bounce, but more downside
2008-06-26 20:23:18 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I am bearish, thus subjective...
2008-06-26 20:23:50 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: You guys want to meet again next Tuesday?
2008-06-26 20:23:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well,  DD's 28 vix  prognostication would fit, as well to tahiti's outlook.  
2008-06-26 20:24:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Tuesday good with me
2008-06-26 20:24:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: yup. Bradley turn on the 6th or 8th, I think
2008-06-26 20:24:45 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Great, thanks for the info TM & DD!
2008-06-26 20:25:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, thanks all for coming and participation
2008-06-26 20:25:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: See you all Tuesday and good trading
2008-06-26 20:25:39 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Yup, good luck trading!
2008-06-26 22:23:43 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: Question answered, thanks for all the info. Good trading



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