All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-06-26 19:03:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Hello, comments on market action?
2008-06-26 19:04:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Very oversold, but not sure if bottoming yet
2008-06-26 19:04:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: last time we said, "So, good time for a bounce, but not so oversold it could not get more so.... "
2008-06-26 19:05:00 [Message] kemo -> Main Room: How did volume end up? I could not check today
2008-06-26 19:05:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So we got both, DCB and BDCL
2008-06-26 19:06:16 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: RIMM was interesting. In a bull mkt, would have blown to 160. Instead...
2008-06-26 19:06:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Not looking much like a bull market
2008-06-26 19:07:18 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: nope
2008-06-26 19:07:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So anybody want to take lead?
2008-06-26 19:07:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Where is Fib when you need him?
2008-06-26 19:08:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, why don't we start with the components?
2008-06-26 19:09:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: like 5% and 10%....those components?
2008-06-26 19:09:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, NYSE
2008-06-26 19:09:27 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: composite, sorry
2008-06-26 19:09:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, ok
2008-06-26 19:09:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: You first
2008-06-26 19:10:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: CO mco surged back down after DCB yesterday
2008-06-26 19:11:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What's interesting is that it stopped at the same place it had twice before. Almost like a triple bottom
2008-06-26 19:11:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: good gap expansion down on MCSUM....bears rule the landscape
2008-06-26 19:12:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Components too, downtrend in place
2008-06-26 19:13:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, we will see later what vol oscillators and trins look like....but from what I have seen so far, not all that bottom looking
2008-06-26 19:13:12 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But there's that little potential divergence taking place in MCO itself right at support, see it?
2008-06-26 19:14:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, dd, see it
2008-06-26 19:14:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: hope springs eternal
2008-06-26 19:14:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: something for bulls to cling to besides guns and religion
2008-06-26 19:15:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But it's also in the RA, and at a place of previous support
2008-06-26 19:16:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, same story on ratio adjusted as CO
2008-06-26 19:18:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looks like we're right at MCSUM rising bottoms on the RA
2008-06-26 19:18:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: and booking negative MCSUM daily
2008-06-26 19:19:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same story different index for NASDAQ
2008-06-26 19:19:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: On volume McSum for RA, has already hit -600
2008-06-26 19:20:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: pretty much same story NDX, but definitive break of MCSUM rising bottoms
2008-06-26 19:21:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: implication DD?
2008-06-26 19:21:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Volume leading to downside?
2008-06-26 19:21:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes
2008-06-26 19:21:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But don't know what it means
2008-06-26 19:22:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same story different index - SPX
2008-06-26 19:22:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think bearish DD
2008-06-26 19:23:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: definitive break on SPX of MCSUM rising bottoms line......bears rule the land
2008-06-26 19:23:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think Fib would say all the major indexes are in sync.....a bearish sync
2008-06-26 19:24:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Boy, this is easy tonight....keep seeing same chart over and over....
2008-06-26 19:24:33 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 19:24:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: On the SPX, McSum has also reached a place of traditional support, maybe some chopping around? Starting on Monday?
2008-06-26 19:25:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Excuse me, that was on volume, once again.
2008-06-26 19:25:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: More of same for OEX
2008-06-26 19:25:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Money really flowing out.
2008-06-26 19:25:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am going to go out on limb and say we test March lows
2008-06-26 19:26:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Will they hold.....we decide later....
2008-06-26 19:27:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The thing is, what does it mean when volume has reached McSum support and breadth hasn't?
2008-06-26 19:27:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looks like new low for 2008 for DOW and MCSUM of DOW as well
2008-06-26 19:27:54 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: Dow is already below March lows
2008-06-26 19:28:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Is volume leading or lagging?
2008-06-26 19:28:41 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: leading
2008-06-26 19:29:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I take that as a leading indicator, in this case bearish.....breadth follows volume
2008-06-26 19:29:17 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And this is interesting, on the Dow, the breadth Mcsum has already broken March and January lows
2008-06-26 19:29:44 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I think volume leading breadth means the market direction is caused by a selected number of stocks
2008-06-26 19:30:00 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: breadth leading volume means there is broad market participation in that direction
2008-06-26 19:30:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, tahiti
2008-06-26 19:31:20 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: ty ..trying to piece all this together is difficult.
2008-06-26 19:31:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So volume is flowing out of maybe the interest sensitive stocks?
2008-06-26 19:31:34 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Because there are no more cuts?
2008-06-26 19:31:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same story on the mid caps.....and rising MCSUM bottoms looks to be barely taken out as well
2008-06-26 19:32:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same tune with the small caps
2008-06-26 19:33:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Same again on the TM, but have not taken out MCSUM bottoms line
2008-06-26 19:33:57 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: DD, it has been the case prior to this week.
2008-06-26 19:34:27 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: But these two days, it is the baby and the bath water
2008-06-26 19:34:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Volume oscillators would support a rally any time, IMO
2008-06-26 19:34:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Wow, small caps just blew past -250. Remember Fib said that that was an important mark?
2008-06-26 19:35:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Anybody got the book marks for Fib's combo charts? and can post them here?
2008-06-26 19:35:52 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Which ones?  These?
2008-06-26 19:35:54 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room:$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p05438774662&a=118792179&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:35:57 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: Question, Would someone explain the Trin. Both the daily & 10 day average. What is Considered over sold & over bought ??
2008-06-26 19:36:00 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room:$NAUD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p82624453286&a=118792169&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:36:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room:$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p79564382133&a=118792146&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:36:12 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room:$NYUD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&id=p25716307635&a=118792131&listNum=5
2008-06-26 19:36:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes....tahiti
2008-06-26 19:37:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will MsB ....later
2008-06-26 19:40:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Wow, tahiti, those are some nice (yet bearish) charts.....been studying what you posted
2008-06-26 19:40:21 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Those are Fib's charts
2008-06-26 19:40:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, and a nice job Fib did with the notes
2008-06-26 19:41:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thank you Fib wherever you are
2008-06-26 19:41:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, but TM, particularly on Nasdaq, I am seeing McSum breadth support here.
2008-06-26 19:42:46 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: From December and February. Not saying it will go up, but could be some chop here.
2008-06-26 19:43:51 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: TEXTURE
2008-06-26 19:44:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well we blew thru the gap support, dd.  But not yet too the rising bottoms on NASDAQ,  Is that what you mean?
2008-06-26 19:45:40 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: I always hear that what everyone knows is not worth knowing.  Look at the Dow failures at 50 and 200 ma
2008-06-26 19:46:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NYSE trin 2.03, open 10 trin at 1.05
2008-06-26 19:47:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, if you look at December and February, this is where the McSum topped before turning down, it creates support for texture, also the little ledge in April...all at -600
2008-06-26 19:47:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MSB.  on open 10,  .9 would be neutral, .8 overbought.  and 1.0 oversold
2008-06-26 19:48:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, DD, I think you are on to an area of support.....something for the bulls
2008-06-26 19:49:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: maybe only tech
2008-06-26 19:49:43 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: for a few days
2008-06-26 19:49:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Sins NYSE trin 2.03.....good probability of bounce tomorrow....but nothing guaranteed
2008-06-26 19:50:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MSB, there are some dashed lines to reference on the DP charts that can also be helpful re overbought/oversold on the trins
2008-06-26 19:52:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NASDAQ trin 2.10 and open 10 at .97
2008-06-26 19:53:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Interesting that for all the selling, NASDAQ barely oversold if any
2008-06-26 19:53:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NASDAQ trin over 2.0, so fair odds of a bounce tomorrow
2008-06-26 19:54:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: DCB?
2008-06-26 19:55:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: TM trin 2.23 and open 10 at 1.01......minimal floor
2008-06-26 19:55:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Those DCs like to B
2008-06-26 19:57:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, the open 10 trins on the oversold side of neutral, but if you look at the charts MsB, they can get a lot more oversold.
2008-06-26 19:59:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, anybody want to put a stake in the sand and call tomorrow's market?  IT, you got to be thinks
2008-06-26 19:59:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Drums rolling..........
2008-06-26 20:00:59 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: rally before the call is for more downside
2008-06-26 20:01:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am looking for testing march lows....not much to go for SPX, much lower on NASDAQ to get to test those March lows
2008-06-26 20:01:54 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Vix and Vxn have a little ways to go yet before panic sets in
2008-06-26 20:02:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I'm not seeing any panic.....that makes me panic
2008-06-26 20:02:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DD, what's your prognosticate on VIX?  Whether you believe it or not.....
2008-06-26 20:03:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Reached hourly projections today
2008-06-26 20:03:47 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: That's funny, I was just looking at it when you asked
2008-06-26 20:04:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Great minds.......and all that
2008-06-26 20:04:20 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Daily points to 28!
2008-06-26 20:04:46 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And it's a double penetration, more accurate, or so they say
2008-06-26 20:04:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Not a very high VIX so far.....not "bottom like", IMO
2008-06-26 20:04:48 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Is that based on Hurst method DD?
2008-06-26 20:05:48 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The thing is, it's reached that kiss-back on the broken uptrend line again.
2008-06-26 20:06:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What does that portend?
2008-06-26 20:06:40 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, if it penetrates it it's very good for the VIX, if not, it's very bullish.
2008-06-26 20:07:06 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: It starts 4/16/07
2008-06-26 20:07:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: penetrates means?  go up?
2008-06-26 20:08:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And it actually starts in Feb of 07, so it's very important support that was broken...
2008-06-26 20:08:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: on 4/14
2008-06-26 20:10:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So the 28, would surely be a bearish market down thrust....and maybe a bottom soon after?
2008-06-26 20:10:55 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Only if it makes it, the broken uptrend line resistance is exactly smack on here
2008-06-26 20:11:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So next few days are critical. Question to the board, if money is flowing out, where is it rotating to right now?
2008-06-26 20:11:58 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: The Fed is draining money out...
2008-06-26 20:12:13 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I guess gold went up...
2008-06-26 20:12:23 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: And oil
2008-06-26 20:13:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, things are oversold, but could be more oversold.....(that is what happens in bear markets)......  And we could easily get a ST bounce anytime in here. 
2008-06-26 20:14:18 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Bear market rallies are very violent. Nobody wins.
2008-06-26 20:14:56 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Yes, it is very uncomfortable to be short.
2008-06-26 20:15:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am playing the short side and keeping a close eye on my stops.....and would flip long if I am nimble enough for a ST Rally.
2008-06-26 20:15:36 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I am flat right now - too oversold and no divergence yet.
2008-06-26 20:15:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Except for some minor credit spreads on energy
2008-06-26 20:16:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am mostly Flat DD.....just talking about what I do have in market
2008-06-26 20:16:41 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I am short and sitting on the edge of my chair.
2008-06-26 20:16:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, I got the sell off I called for back in May, but it wasn't fast and furious.
2008-06-26 20:17:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I was predicting it sooner.....left money on the table for the next guy
2008-06-26 20:17:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: or gal
2008-06-26 20:17:32 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 20:17:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am very PC
2008-06-26 20:17:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Where is it, I can't find it
2008-06-26 20:17:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 20:18:02 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: (the money on the table)
2008-06-26 20:18:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-26 20:18:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, you had to be there......where were you?
2008-06-26 20:18:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: LOL
2008-06-26 20:18:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: OK, so I'll call for some days of chop here.
2008-06-26 20:19:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So folks, any other things to add?
2008-06-26 20:19:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MsB, did I answer you questions?
2008-06-26 20:20:29 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I am looking for a quick swoosh and a bottom towards the end of next week.
2008-06-26 20:20:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What's a swoosh?
2008-06-26 20:21:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, tahiti......You are in the "not now" bounce camp then?
2008-06-26 20:21:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: downwards action
2008-06-26 20:21:47 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: possible bounce, but more downside
2008-06-26 20:23:18 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I am bearish, thus subjective...
2008-06-26 20:23:50 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: You guys want to meet again next Tuesday?
2008-06-26 20:23:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well,  DD's 28 vix  prognostication would fit, as well to tahiti's outlook.  
2008-06-26 20:24:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Tuesday good with me
2008-06-26 20:24:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: yup. Bradley turn on the 6th or 8th, I think
2008-06-26 20:24:45 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Great, thanks for the info TM & DD!
2008-06-26 20:25:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, thanks all for coming and participation
2008-06-26 20:25:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: See you all Tuesday and good trading
2008-06-26 20:25:39 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Yup, good luck trading!
2008-06-26 22:23:43 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: Question answered, thanks for all the info. Good trading

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch