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Posts: 5,090
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-06-24 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-06-24 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-06-24 16:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-06-24 16:03:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Nope
2014-06-24 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get a crackin!
2014-06-24 16:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2014-06-24 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I solved the problem of the day to day changes in the MCO so we'll have that information to work with moving forward
2014-06-24 16:08:27 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: last week when you estimated $150 target price for XLE what were you measuring to get that number
2014-06-24 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we go
2014-06-24 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that forecast is based on the new highs in the McClellan Oscillator that we saw on Thursday
2014-06-24 16:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll go over how to use the MCO for pattern measurements at another time
2014-06-24 16:09:20 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Ok
2014-06-24 16:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after showing small point changes in many of the breadth MCO's on Monday
2014-06-24 16:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the resolution of a dramatic move was to the downside today
2014-06-24 16:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as yesterday's compression point was released
2014-06-24 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2014-06-24 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we not only moved back below the zero line
2014-06-24 16:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also took out last weeks low point in the process
2014-06-24 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that unlike a week ago where we immediately turned and moved back to new highs
2014-06-24 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time around this is more of a "shot off the bow" that it will likely take more than a week to resolve
2014-06-24 16:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the NYSE Composite MCO didn't do the same thing
2014-06-24 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, in that case, we would be back to a better reset between the composite and the commons
2014-06-24 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see in a moment
2014-06-24 16:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth components
2014-06-24 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both remain above their zero lines
2014-06-24 16:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we did generate a crossover sell with today's retracement
2014-06-24 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-06-24 16:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we also know is that
2014-06-24 16:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the components and the MCO are not in agreement
2014-06-24 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more likely outcome would be for prices to move sideways over the near term
2014-06-24 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-06-24 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it closed down to a +717
2014-06-24 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being at a +737 on Monday
2014-06-24 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is close enough to our natural resistance zone of the +750 level
2014-06-24 16:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not too surprising that we're finding at least initial resistance at these levels
2014-06-24 16:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...lets see what the NYSE Composite has to say
2014-06-24 16:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved down and through the MCO zero line
2014-06-24 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't move below last weeks lows
2014-06-24 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then provides the expectation was part of a pause in the short term trend of money flow
2014-06-24 16:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing as yet indicating an imbalance moving in the opposite direction
2014-06-24 16:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2014-06-24 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be back challenging Friday's highs as soon as Wednesday
2014-06-24 16:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Thursday
2014-06-24 16:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as one would expect a bit of back and fill before finding some stabilization at these levels to make such an attempt
2014-06-24 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also helping the price pattern right now is the 20 day EMA
2014-06-24 16:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have 50 points of wiggle room before we'll see a challenge on the NYA
2014-06-24 16:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCO components
2014-06-24 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they remain well above their zero line for now
2014-06-24 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can then feel comfortable that today was just a much deserved rest in the trend
2014-06-24 16:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing that would indicate a change of direction at this time
2014-06-24 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2014-06-24 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that it backed off today from another natural resistance point at the +1000 level today
2014-06-24 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, again, it's not too surprising that we failed to keep the higher price highs we had in the morning
2014-06-24 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the buyers would need fresh money to break above these same resistance levels
2014-06-24 16:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that turned out to be a non event as soon as the news switched back to Iraq in the afternoon session
2014-06-24 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...profit taking
2014-06-24 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-06-24 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we also moved down and through the MCO zero line
2014-06-24 16:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this break was a bit more technically damaging
2014-06-24 16:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also broke below our rising bottoms line that had been holding the pattern in check since the May period
2014-06-24 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2014-06-24 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that we actually settled right on the rising bottoms line that goes back the bottom above bottom lows of mid May
2014-06-24 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the longer term line of support intersecting just below that at around the -20 level
2014-06-24 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2014-06-24 16:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a bit more technical damage as both the 10% and 5% Trends are just above their zero lines
2014-06-24 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both have not crossed below this line as yet
2014-06-24 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day close up chart
2014-06-24 16:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% is at a position where we can see technical bounces occur
2014-06-24 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would probably make better sense after today's large outside range day
2014-06-24 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we probably won't get the bounce until we see both components hit their zero line
2014-06-24 16:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe another day of weakness...and then the bounce attempt would be anticipated on Thursday
2014-06-24 16:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small point change today on the NDX breadth MCO
2014-06-24 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there wasn't a whole lot of selling today with this basket of stocks
2014-06-24 16:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like they reversed in sympathy with the rest of the market
2014-06-24 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the NDX breadth MCO components remain comfortably above their zero lines
2014-06-24 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX breadth MCSUM itself is facing some horizontal resistance at the +1100 level
2014-06-24 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one thing's for sure right now
2014-06-24 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood that today was somehow a game changer for the market is a very low probability given that it would take the NDX MCSUM to move much lower from where it is right now for there to be any kind significant price decay to take place
2014-06-24 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2014-06-24 16:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it continues to hold above nice series of bottoms above bottoms in its pattern structure
2014-06-24 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX breadth MCSUM at such lofty levels right now
2014-06-24 16:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is for the odds to be more favorable to a zero line snapback first before we'll actually have the chance to break this same rising line of positive influence in the MCO itself
2014-06-24 16:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor of the 21 day closeup price chart of the SPX
2014-06-24 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the intraday lows today hit the rising bottoms line of early last week's bottoms
2014-06-24 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCO holding it's own support
2014-06-24 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is for this line to hold early Wednesday
2014-06-24 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wouldn't be too surprising to see us move higher as the day moves along
2014-06-24 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is, of course, if we even open lower
2014-06-24 16:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main thing though
2014-06-24 16:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that this near term line of support will be important for the sellers to break before they really have anything to work with that would last more than just a few days
2014-06-24 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind
2014-06-24 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we still have the time objective of a top in prices coming the Friday after next
2014-06-24 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this may be the first salvo in setting up this expected high point in the pattern
2014-06-24 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO has the same kind of configuration right now
2014-06-24 16:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we see that last weeks highs in the OEX breadth MCSUM at just under the +1250 level has lead to a small divergent high of sorts
2014-06-24 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this divergence hasn't been triggered as yet
2014-06-24 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be looking at a sideways structure in this MCSUM for a couple of days
2014-06-24 16:44:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: what's the trigger?
2014-06-24 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: generally speaking, a lower low after the divergence
2014-06-24 16:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it can vary depending on the tool
2014-06-24 16:45:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: ok
2014-06-24 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take the OEX for the example here
2014-06-24 16:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it has the look of a top beneath a top
2014-06-24 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the recent bottom is broken
2014-06-24 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only something that needs our attention
2014-06-24 16:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this same bottom is eventually broken
2014-06-24 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that would suggest that we're going to go about the business of relieving the extreme imbalance between buyers and sellers
2014-06-24 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIGGER for the actual bear divergence
2014-06-24 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-06-24 16:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: won't come until the rising bottoms line that connects the April and May lows is violated
2014-06-24 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would be the line of least resistance
2014-06-24 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a break of that would give us the actual trigger
2014-06-24 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that happens then
2014-06-24 16:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can hold...but they don't need to sell
2014-06-24 16:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market breaths in
2014-06-24 16:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it breaths out
2014-06-24 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it gets too excited
2014-06-24 16:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will also find a time to catch its brea(d)th
2014-06-24 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's something more than that
2014-06-24 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know about that when we get to it
2014-06-24 16:49:26 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: great to know
2014-06-24 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have time at this point
2014-06-24 16:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I like to use the cruise ship in the open ocean analogy
2014-06-24 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the ship wants to go in the opposite direction
2014-06-24 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can only do so by way of a wide arc
2014-06-24 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can not be picked up and turned around
2014-06-24 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has to go through the process to do so
2014-06-24 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to wit
2014-06-24 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has to be enough money moving in the opposite direction in order for the ship to actually turn around
2014-06-24 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that just doesn't happen with a snap of your fingers
2014-06-24 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could today's reversal bar be the exhaustion top of the move?
2014-06-24 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2014-06-24 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have to also remember
2014-06-24 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we're dealing with 3 fan formation lines of support in prices
2014-06-24 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-06-24 16:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a parabola
2014-06-24 16:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in these structures
2014-06-24 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shakes outs can be just as impressive as the ongoing trend
2014-06-24 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day does not make a trend
2014-06-24 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...while I'm thinking of it
2014-06-24 16:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because I'm sure that it's going to be on every message board tonight
2014-06-24 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check to see if today was a "Key Reversal" or just an outside range day
2014-06-24 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2014-06-24 16:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far the volume isn't more moment
2014-06-24 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...not a key reversal
2014-06-24 16:54:48 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: good
2014-06-24 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are specific guidelines to this kind of reversal pattern
2014-06-24 16:55:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: they are?
2014-06-24 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can review them over on the TW Message board under "Technically Speaking" - the topic "Range Days"
2014-06-24 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the sake of time
2014-06-24 16:55:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main guideline is that we have above average volume on the reversal
2014-06-24 16:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which in the SPX you did...the SPY you didn't
2014-06-24 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the September contract you didn't
2014-06-24 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2014-06-24 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open Interest in the SEPT ES did not decline prior to the reversal
2014-06-24 16:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not "KEY" to the pattern structure [smile]
2014-06-24 16:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also moved to a lower low today and breaking below its zero line
2014-06-24 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also wound up with a reading of -28 today
2014-06-24 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's close to around the natural support area of -25
2014-06-24 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a technical bounce to or toward the MCO zero line should be seen as soon as Wednesday
2014-06-24 16:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term
2014-06-24 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO continues to support a series of bottoms above bottoms
2014-06-24 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the components remain above their zero lines
2014-06-24 16:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: indicating corrective behavior
2014-06-24 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest drag on the market continues to be with the SML
2014-06-24 16:59:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we touched on a couple of times before
2014-06-24 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to need better internal strength on the SML breadth MCO in order for prices to not only challenge their all time highs, but to actually break above them and STAY THERE
2014-06-24 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we came short of doing this a week or so ago
2014-06-24 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have evidence of a rally failure in progress
2014-06-24 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with prices failing to move to new highs and staying there
2014-06-24 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and having the SML breadth MCO moving back below its zero line
2014-06-24 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but wait...
2014-06-24 17:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do we see here?
2014-06-24 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-06-24 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't break to lower lows today in this MCO
2014-06-24 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so because of this
2014-06-24 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best interpretation is that of a "false start"
2014-06-24 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the pattern was "reset" today in what should be another attempt to succeed
2014-06-24 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of technical note
2014-06-24 17:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM is starting to curl lower just below its intermediate term declining tops line that connects the October and March highs
2014-06-24 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on this one as being the canary of whether we're beginning our topping process for next week or not
2014-06-24 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a break below the zero line and horizontal support for the TM breadth MCO
2014-06-24 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the components here remain buoyant
2014-06-24 17:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM is having its issues moving above the +600 level
2014-06-24 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-06-24 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear on the surface that today was more of a slip and fall than it was the exhaustion point in the price pattern
2014-06-24 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately
2014-06-24 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a better overall interpretation will come tomorrow as the dust clears
2014-06-24 17:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2014-06-24 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can feel comfortable that this is a corrective sequence
2014-06-24 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that may or may not last more than a week
2014-06-24 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the worse that could happen here is similar to what we see in the early April period
2014-06-24 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but much of this depends on whether we see a pick up in downside volume today
2014-06-24 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's move to the volume McClellan's and check it out
2014-06-24 17:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the NYSE CO volume MCO is in sync with its breadth cousin so far
2014-06-24 17:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the CO NYSE volume MCSUM at the +830 level
2014-06-24 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers don't have too much power right now to extend any follow through beyond the intraday variety at this stage
2014-06-24 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the +901 reading in the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM re-enforcing this idea
2014-06-24 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...there was quite a hit in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2014-06-24 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with a +2 reading
2014-06-24 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term expectation is for a technical bounce as soon as Wednesday
2014-06-24 17:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ volume components in a bullish configuration
2014-06-24 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then increase the odds that we will see this bounce near term
2014-06-24 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO actually bounced higher today off its zero line
2014-06-24 17:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is pretty much what we're expecting in the NASDAQ on Wednesday
2014-06-24 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to tell ya
2014-06-24 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it sure looks like a slip here based more on the news of the day than anything else
2014-06-24 17:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the volume MCSUM's at new highs
2014-06-24 17:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks as though we just ran out of brea(d)th
2014-06-24 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the heart is still ticking away
2014-06-24 17:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback in the SPX volume MCO
2014-06-24 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms remaining intact
2014-06-24 17:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2014-06-24 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the TRIN readings are high tonight, it could be that we have another near term low here
2014-06-24 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as strange as it might seem
2014-06-24 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCSUM is right at the +1000 level of resistance
2014-06-24 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will need fresh conviction near term to break above this level
2014-06-24 17:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the Dow volume MCSUM
2014-06-24 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that when we get to these high extremes in the MCSUM
2014-06-24 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's overall bullish
2014-06-24 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it becomes more and more difficult for those who are in control to see expansion points in their breadth plurality
2014-06-24 17:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being at these same extremes
2014-06-24 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also very difficult for the sellers (in this case) to wrestle back this same control
2014-06-24 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we tend to chop with the "odd occurrence" of relief points in the price pattern
2014-06-24 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last week it was on the news of the FED
2014-06-24 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this week...Iraq?
2014-06-24 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2014-06-24 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is already clarity there (unfortunately)
2014-06-24 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe today was just an excuse for the specialists to accumulate stock?
2014-06-24 17:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know better on that question tomorrow
2014-06-24 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice clean break below the zero line today on the MID volume MCO
2014-06-24 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the components here remain above their zero line indicating corrective behavior
2014-06-24 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this break though has a focused look to it
2014-06-24 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a near term snapback to the zero line is likely since we're near trendline support in the MCO
2014-06-24 17:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll see how important today's pattern bar really turns out to be
2014-06-24 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the SML volume MCO
2014-06-24 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's no break below the zero line here
2014-06-24 17:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since it's part and parcel that the secondaries and small caps generally lead any kind of turnaround in a price trend
2014-06-24 17:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not good news for the "foaming at the mouth" bears who are so desperate to see a top
2014-06-24 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we see downside follow through near term, then this would make a difference
2014-06-24 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not now
2014-06-24 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we closed with a -2 reading on the TM volume MCO today
2014-06-24 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a technical bounce off this line as soon as tomorrow
2014-06-24 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-06-24 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short term trend of volume agrees with the idea that this may have been a slip and fall moment for a mature trend
2014-06-24 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have indications that it may not recover as quickly as it did a week ago
2014-06-24 17:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately, there isn't enough information today to decide if there needs to be any changes to our current blueprint
2014-06-24 17:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's sit on our hands on Wednesday and see what happens
2014-06-24 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-06-24 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same ones that kept showing us being "overbought" in the VTO's all of last week
2014-06-24 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see very little change across the board
2014-06-24 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to happen when things move too fast
2014-06-24 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll table those indicators for now
2014-06-24 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but note that the VTO's remain "overbought"
2014-06-24 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TA DA!!
2014-06-24 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.13
2014-06-24 17:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a technical buy signal during a strong advancing trend
2014-06-24 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the one we had back in May
2014-06-24 17:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so good news there for the longs
2014-06-24 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2014-06-24 17:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so back to being minimally "oversold" there
2014-06-24 17:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could see a bit more downside follow through there though with the high single TRIN reading today
2014-06-24 17:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .97
2014-06-24 17:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .82
2014-06-24 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see on the chart that we were technically "overbought" on Monday there
2014-06-24 17:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.32
2014-06-24 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91 neutral
2014-06-24 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-06-24 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a lot of downside plurality in volume today
2014-06-24 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at least for the NYSE group of stocks
2014-06-24 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they should remain quite buoyant near term given today's high TRIN reading
2014-06-24 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ has a bit more decay to be seen
2014-06-24 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this can take the form of either by time, by price, or both
2014-06-24 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though
2014-06-24 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the volume MCSUM's as high as they are
2014-06-24 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation would be for more a correction of time than price
2014-06-24 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a trading range
2014-06-24 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe even...a triangle
2014-06-24 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would fit the forecast for a price top next week
2014-06-24 17:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a final thrust into the jobs numbers (?)
2014-06-24 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2014-06-24 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch and listen to sentiment here
2014-06-24 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it gets rampant again with less than a 1% decline like it did last week
2014-06-24 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then with the high TRIN today
2014-06-24 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see new price pattern highs sometime next week at the latest
2014-06-24 17:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...let's wait another couple of days and see how this all sorts out
2014-06-24 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-06-24 17:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS
2014-06-24 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +85
2014-06-24 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buy
2014-06-24 17:34:56 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: nope lots to go over and I should be up late tonight going back over all this.  Thanks Fib
2014-06-24 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a test of the 19 day and 39 day EMA's over the next day or two in the cumulative charts but they're expected to hold
2014-06-24 17:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2014-06-24 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the futures
2014-06-24 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call them flat...
2014-06-24 17:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-06-24 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-06-24 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2014-06-24 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Thursday
2014-06-24 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-06-24 17:36:52 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: no good night fib
2014-06-24 17:38:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Lots of excellent information here but you all know that.

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