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fib_1618

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2010-06-24 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Good Day
2010-06-24 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: How is everyone?
2010-06-24 16:00:24 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Very good, hope you are doing well
2010-06-24 16:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I am doing as good as can be expected, thank you
2010-06-24 16:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so.....
2010-06-24 16:01:11 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Markets are not doing very good at all. Only the night monkeys can get any rally LOL
2010-06-24 16:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how's the market treating everyone?
2010-06-24 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..any questions...comments??
2010-06-24 16:02:10 [Message] darris -> Main Room: We seem to need lower price lows now to fulfill the MCO extreme last month
2010-06-24 16:02:42 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Should be hitting the 1055 spx cash gap fill from a week or so back soon
2010-06-24 16:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know my friend
2010-06-24 16:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something's going on here...I don't like the rhythm
2010-06-24 16:03:15 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Straight line rhythm, LOL
2010-06-24 16:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's the problem...the bulls have left the building
2010-06-24 16:03:53 [Message] xom1 -> Main Room: only AAPL bulls left in the Market
2010-06-24 16:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK....let's get started with a brief review
2010-06-24 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we talked about on Tuesday, we were to expect at least a bounce on Wednesday in the internals
2010-06-24 16:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that price should bounce as well by today or our upside price objectives would be canceled
2010-06-24 16:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...what did we get?
2010-06-24 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we got small point changes in the breadth MCO's on Wednesday and the large move came to the downside today
2010-06-24 16:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today's last hour of trading also declined enough to give us a SAR sell signal
2010-06-24 16:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and though we've retraced between .50 and .618 of the recent run up earlier this month
2010-06-24 16:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there hasn't been any texture at all since the MCO's all peaked last week
2010-06-24 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is NOT how advancing price structures maintain their strength
2010-06-24 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and more importantly
2010-06-24 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is NOT how price bottoms are created
2010-06-24 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we'll have to see how much damage there was today
2010-06-24 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping in mind that anything over -50 MCO would not be a good thing short term
2010-06-24 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as it would imply that the bulls have pretty much spent all they will be likely to give at this juncture
2010-06-24 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also need to remember that the NYSE breadth MCSUM was having trouble moving above its zero line earlier this week
2010-06-24 16:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and more than likely it has now repelled the MCSUM action to the downside
2010-06-24 16:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would then fulfill a simple snapback to this line of demarcation between bullish and bearish power
2010-06-24 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with that said...let me get DP up and we'll see what we have to work with
2010-06-24 16:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy o boy
2010-06-24 16:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is very heavy here
2010-06-24 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to move lower today and now has a reading of -48
2010-06-24 16:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this has now canceled our upside price objectives
2010-06-24 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although we tried our very best to meet those objectives on Monday, it just wasn't going to happen
2010-06-24 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that rally failure was just too much for the market to overcome
2010-06-24 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to the beginning of the month
2010-06-24 16:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we need to remember that the main objective for the MCSUM is to provide some balance between being above and below its zero line
2010-06-24 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since the MCSUM was above its zero line for 13 months, it would be reasonable to expect that the MCSUM will now spend several months below its zero line to provide this intermediate balance
2010-06-24 16:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...and by the way
2010-06-24 16:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for anyone who was hanging their hat on the "breadth thrust" idea that was thrown around earlier this week
2010-06-24 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the retracement on the MCO is now traveled too far for this to be correct
2010-06-24 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where you will find that after we have breadth thrusts, the MCO will tend to stay above its zero line for a great majority of time and provide "texture" in its rhythm
2010-06-24 16:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's been none of that at all this week
2010-06-24 16:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this quite concerning for the stability of the market itself
2010-06-24 16:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM we also notice that it was not even able to get back to the -250 level before moving lower
2010-06-24 16:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a sign of a very weak marketplace
2010-06-24 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in that the bulls were not able to corral enough traders to bring supply and demand factors back to a more neutral stance after a hard sell off
2010-06-24 16:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the near term then we would want to look for a snapback to the MCO zero line to occur first before entering any bearish positions
2010-06-24 16:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we do this for two reasons
2010-06-24 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first ...it keeps us from chasing the market, and since we are now minimally "oversold", and we haven't had any kind of bounce, the odds are very high that some sort of rally attempt will be in the offering
2010-06-24 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (more like short covering...semantics)
2010-06-24 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the second reason is that it gives us a opportunity to measure this same strength as to determine whether or not this current technical breakdown will generate something that can be called shallow in nature or something that can be "crash like"
2010-06-24 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this shouldn't take too long to ascertain
2010-06-24 16:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by Tuesday...we'll be able to have a good feel on this
2010-06-24 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...just like you wouldn't wanted to be short 10 days ago...you just don't want to enter any new long positions at this time
2010-06-24 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless...you're playing this expected technical bounce
2010-06-24 16:22:59 [Message] doc -> Main Room: What about the idea of a Buy Spike? The common only MCO is rather deep at -48, the the all NYSE is a more typical -29
2010-06-24 16:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like last Thursday...I wouldn't be holding over the weekend
2010-06-24 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: buy spikes have two main criteria to them
2010-06-24 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well three actually
2010-06-24 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first...you have to have breadth thrust which doesn't seem to be the case at hand
2010-06-24 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but assuming that we did have one
2010-06-24 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO would then stay above its zero line for at least 10 trading days
2010-06-24 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then it would "fall off a cliff"...a hard and fast shake out occurs
2010-06-24 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which creates the spike, and then the bulls re-establish their strength
2010-06-24 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the main problem remains with the intermediate term
2010-06-24 16:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there hasn't been any indication in the slowing of momentum
2010-06-24 16:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything
2010-06-24 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have just seen that downside momentum only took a pause
2010-06-24 16:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and having the MCO move in straight line fashion
2010-06-24 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: things like this can only happen when there is one side to a trade (so to speak)
2010-06-24 16:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - the move higher was short covering...NOT fresh buying
2010-06-24 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once this short covering completed, without any new buying...a vacuum was created...and here we are
2010-06-24 16:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, as far as Doc is concerned, we have to hope that the 2.5 week cycle was the "thumb on the scale"
2010-06-24 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but would a small cycle of only 2.5 weeks create such a sell off after having historic extremes?
2010-06-24 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: regardless
2010-06-24 16:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this cycle is the weight
2010-06-24 16:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this weight should be lifted by Friday - Doc....agreed?
2010-06-24 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if this is the case...then we could see a sharp rally to confirm this
2010-06-24 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if the rally doesn't come...or if its lethargic
2010-06-24 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this again gives us clues on how to position ourselves
2010-06-24 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...it's a day to day thing
2010-06-24 16:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can't rush into these things
2010-06-24 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or anticipate outcomes
2010-06-24 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can only draw up a blueprint, and if the market follows it...great
2010-06-24 16:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but more importantly, if it DOESN'T follow it, we must be flexible enough to change our tactics
2010-06-24 16:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the objective here is have our money constantly working for us
2010-06-24 16:31:42 [Message] Thespookyone -> Main Room: to play devils advocate, was the MCO not above zero ten days from June 8th?
2010-06-24 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sigh...and that's another great concern
2010-06-24 16:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to have the MCO only able to maintain its position above the zero line for only 2 weeks is quite worrisome
2010-06-24 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...
2010-06-24 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO measures the SPEED in which two EMA's are moving toward or away from each other
2010-06-24 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: last Thursday...we had what was described as a "throttle up" day
2010-06-24 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we've all seen what can happen during "throttle up" if you have a bad seal
2010-06-24 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2010-06-24 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you fall to earth just as fast
2010-06-24 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's the problem
2010-06-24 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Newton's second law of motion states - "An object that is in motion will not change its velocity unless an unbalanced force acts upon it"
2010-06-24 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is what has happened here in the last 3 days
2010-06-24 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something "unbalanced"
2010-06-24 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we really never got "overbought"
2010-06-24 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...we did on a near term basis...and close to on a short term basis
2010-06-24 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the intermediate term...let's say with the MCSUM and VTO..all we got was a snapback to neutral
2010-06-24 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this were a constructive foundation being formed
2010-06-24 16:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we would have seen momentum oscillators relax back to their 50% line and then move higher again
2010-06-24 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we're not getting that
2010-06-24 16:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is the main problem...too much weakness..too much sell side imbalance
2010-06-24 16:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bids are being slaughtered
2010-06-24 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: spreads are widening between the bid and ask
2010-06-24 16:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is NOT how uptrends maintain their structure
2010-06-24 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides
2010-06-24 16:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we talked about how a couple of index price patterns are showing some SOB formations
2010-06-24 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order to counter trend such formations, we need to see robust movement against this pattern
2010-06-24 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we're not getting it
2010-06-24 16:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's not worth waiting around to see if it might happen if the market is suggesting otherwise
2010-06-24 16:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you close your longs
2010-06-24 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or at least stop adding to your positions
2010-06-24 16:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: stop buying the dips
2010-06-24 16:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because there's nothing indicating strength at this time
2010-06-24 16:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry
2010-06-24 16:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on
2010-06-24 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe we'll get something for the bulls to work with
2010-06-24 16:41:02 [Message] kean -> Main Room: this is depressing!
2010-06-24 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...
2010-06-24 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't let it depress you
2010-06-24 16:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look
2010-06-24 16:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's be reasonable here
2010-06-24 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's nothing really out there right now that is building confidence
2010-06-24 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from government to commerce...it's tough out there
2010-06-24 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of what "stimulates" an economy is either not being offered, or it's being taken away by attrition
2010-06-24 16:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market direction is based solely on anticipated earnings
2010-06-24 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if money sniffs out that growth is going to slow, or worse decline, then it will have to move into other areas where growth is to be expected based on what we have to work with
2010-06-24 16:43:39 [Message] kean -> Main Room: it's just my hope of exiting bad positions has gone out the window . . . . for now. Sorry to interrupt.
2010-06-24 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the advantage with technical analysis though
2010-06-24 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that the market will whisper to us which way it believes we're likely to go to
2010-06-24 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's our job to not only listen, but to act based on this information
2010-06-24 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...
2010-06-24 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are you holding longs from a couple of years ago?
2010-06-24 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2010-06-24 16:45:21 [Message] kean -> Main Room: not that long. Some only since late last year.
2010-06-24 16:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...so you should be about break even then?
2010-06-24 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the key to all of this
2010-06-24 16:45:57 [Message] kean -> Main Room: But some leveraged ones in April!!!!!!
2010-06-24 16:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our first priority is capital preservation
2010-06-24 16:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our second priority is having enough to be able to make up for any mistakes that we may have had
2010-06-24 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, none of us are dumb
2010-06-24 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we see what's going on
2010-06-24 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both technically, as well as, fundamentally
2010-06-24 16:47:05 [Message] Thespookyone -> Main Room: how will I differentiate the bounce (which I feel will be of fair size) from a possible buy spike?
2010-06-24 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as technicians, our upper hand is that we are "cheating the fundamentals"
2010-06-24 16:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know what's going to happen well before the great majority will realize it
2010-06-24 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: forget the buy spike
2010-06-24 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not going to happen
2010-06-24 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as far as size
2010-06-24 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we talked about on Tuesday
2010-06-24 16:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was going to be important not how prices reacted with our expectation of a technical bounce
2010-06-24 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it was going to be how the internals bounced that would later predicate what would be expected to see from prices themselves
2010-06-24 16:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: prices can only move as high as the amount of forward push it receives from its engine
2010-06-24 16:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: analogy...a car will only go so far given how much pressure we put on the accelerator
2010-06-24 16:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without the fuel...prices will not make an objective
2010-06-24 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the upside objectives given two weeks ago are now canceled
2010-06-24 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even though there was the expectation to meet those objectives
2010-06-24 16:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's been so much fuel taken out of the tank that it would be difficult to do so
2010-06-24 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be like someone punctured the gas tank and you lost all of your remaining fuel to reach the objective given previously
2010-06-24 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so now...we have to find someone to fix the tank
2010-06-24 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once we do, we can then fill it up again
2010-06-24 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until we do...it would be like you're going up a hill
2010-06-24 16:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you didn't have any brakes
2010-06-24 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're going roll backwards...and quite quickly
2010-06-24 16:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we're hoping for near term (using this analogy) is for the car to turn over with what's left of the remaining fuel, while at the same time, the brakes slow the rate of descent
2010-06-24 16:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only then can we move higher again
2010-06-24 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wish I can sugar coat this...but this how the physics work
2010-06-24 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market has a problem here
2010-06-24 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are no buyers
2010-06-24 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (shrug)
2010-06-24 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what can you do?
2010-06-24 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...maybe the GDP figures will wake people up (doubtful)
2010-06-24 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but again...you have to figure its going to be short covering
2010-06-24 16:55:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-06-24 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it found resistance at its zero line
2010-06-24 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: isn't this the technical expectation after breaking below it?
2010-06-24 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and even more so
2010-06-24 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breaking below it after such a prolong period of being above it?
2010-06-24 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wouldn't it reasonable that the market needs to see deeper "oversold" readings before we'll see enough of a purge so that fresh buying can come back into the market?
2010-06-24 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...for people like Spooky
2010-06-24 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who day trades a lot
2010-06-24 16:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of this doesn't mean too much
2010-06-24 16:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in the bigger picture
2010-06-24 16:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reasonable expectation is that we're probably going to take several months to digest a 60% rally
2010-06-24 16:59:01 [Message] cycletrader -> Main Room: To digest a 60% rally? what do you mean, Fib?
2010-06-24 16:59:02 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Trading range or lower and lower?
2010-06-24 16:59:22 [Message] darris -> Main Room: As a day trader myself, it means a lot. It means that dips should be smaller, and less oversold conditions before rallies come again. at least that is how I like to size my positions and bias my trade
2010-06-24 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CT - I do believe that the rally from the March 09 lows to the April 10 highs was about a 60% gain
2010-06-24 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Doc...looking at the MCO
2010-06-24 17:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we take out the reaction lows of early June
2010-06-24 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the trading range idea is finished
2010-06-24 17:00:23 [Message] cycletrader -> Main Room: I meant the wording, "digest"?
2010-06-24 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Darris...yes...it should mean a lot for everyone
2010-06-24 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the big advantage of using breadth analysis in your trading
2010-06-24 17:01:03 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: here is a chart of SPX weekly closes since 1998 with the weekly NYSI above, for a perspective - http://screencast.com/t/ODY2NjI2YTk
2010-06-24 17:01:13 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Most equally weighted indexes have been at all time new high, and some MUCH higher. NYSE commons about 10% higher. Preferred about 50% higher
2010-06-24 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that no matter what your time frame...or your investment objectives...knowing if the market is either friendly or hostile generates the basis of your trading blueprint
2010-06-24 17:01:43 [Message] doc -> Main Room: You mean if we take out the record MCO lows with a worse low, then we go lower, makes sense
2010-06-24 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not the record lows Doc...the reaction lows of early June...the small bottom above a bottom
2010-06-24 17:02:28 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Gotcha
2010-06-24 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks Hiker
2010-06-24 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice chart
2010-06-24 17:02:55 [Message] hiker -> Main Room:
2010-06-24 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...to be clear here
2010-06-24 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's more than likely going to take place sooner or later
2010-06-24 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that we're going to generate a higher MCO low than the record lows we saw last month
2010-06-24 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the prime objective that we face over the next several months
2010-06-24 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what was up for debate up until recently
2010-06-24 17:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: was whether this lessening of amplitude in selling (divergence) was going to be part of a price consolidation (that of time) or a declining structure (that of price)
2010-06-24 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given that we weren't able to provide any kind of texture in the MCO - that is to say any "buyer defensive" to the "offensive bears" - suggests that it this will more likely turn out to be one of price
2010-06-24 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the price chart of the NYA provided at DP
2010-06-24 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you will note that we closed right at the horizontal line that provided support to the price pattern over the last 6 months
2010-06-24 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we could allow for a "throw-over" below this line and then move back into the consolidation area
2010-06-24 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with breadth of market picking up momentum to the downside
2010-06-24 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just at the line of what should provide support
2010-06-24 17:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this doesn't bode well for this price support level to hold this same price test
2010-06-24 17:07:57 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Going back in time, the Oct 2009 MCO low was only fulfilled in a lower price low for the NYSE index on the Feb 5th intraday low. I do not think any other major index made a lower price low even intraday than any of the lows in Oct 2009. In Feb 2010 the Banks were still on a tear so the spx held up better. Now in this drop the Banks are generally dropping below the Feb lows
2010-06-24 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good point
2010-06-24 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's this area of the economy that is still having its problems as it directly relates to commerce
2010-06-24 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the banks are not lending folks...they are hording
2010-06-24 17:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the treasury isn't putting any pressure on them to lend
2010-06-24 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the current administration doesn't understand economics
2010-06-24 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...
2010-06-24 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since there's been little in the way of lending
2010-06-24 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a great majority of folks, and even worse, a great majority of small businesses, are over extending credit access
2010-06-24 17:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the business area...many who had special incentives to borrow (0% etc.) have now run out of time and that these advances are going to revert to rates between 10-15%
2010-06-24 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many will default and the banks will use this excuse not to lend more
2010-06-24 17:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and round and round we go
2010-06-24 17:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on a personal level
2010-06-24 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my feel here is that everyone is holding their collective breath waiting for the other shoe to drop
2010-06-24 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again I live in the belly of the beast called Sacramento so I may be more sensitive to this than others
2010-06-24 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...
2010-06-24 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very hard to be bullish when so many people are as afraid to spend as they are right now
2010-06-24 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's neither here nor there when we're dealing with the market
2010-06-24 17:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the charts
2010-06-24 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO continued lower as well
2010-06-24 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this has now turned the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM lower after only able to attain the -500 level
2010-06-24 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we can look for here is that this abrupt unwinding of capital (as measured by the MCO) has come to some sort of completion which might leave us with an inverted fishhook
2010-06-24 17:15:42 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: a chart plotting only some of the bank symbols since October 2009 to which Darris mentioned above
2010-06-24 17:15:43 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: http://tinyurl.com/2exo2w2
2010-06-24 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: WFC breaking to new lows
2010-06-24 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the money center bank of California
2010-06-24 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's also take a moment to look at Steve's chart
2010-06-24 17:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the top indicator he shows is the 10 day RSI
2010-06-24 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things we talked about on Tuesday was how oscillators can tell us if the price action is either bullish or bearish depending on how these kind of tools react around their 50% line
2010-06-24 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...up until early this week, we see how the RSI was able to move above this demarcation line
2010-06-24 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the technical expectation was that we were to look for the snapback to test the bulls new found conviction, and then if it found support, this would had some substance to the trend
2010-06-24 17:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but as we can see, we failed to remain above the line
2010-06-24 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means that the bears continue to have control of the price action
2010-06-24 17:20:26 [Message] kean -> Main Room: What does the inverted fish hook tell us given the breadth in the last few days? I thought that meant the MCSUM would head higher.
2010-06-24 17:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and usually when an oscillator moves back into its prevailing trend...we can accelerate in that same direction
2010-06-24 17:20:49 [Message] kean -> Main Room: Opposite of regular fish hook.
2010-06-24 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the fishhook is a place where the trending direction takes a pause
2010-06-24 17:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our idea continues to be one of "IF" than it would be a given
2010-06-24 17:22:33 [Message] kean -> Main Room: But doesn't resolve in same direction before the hook?
2010-06-24 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: IF it's a hook...yes
2010-06-24 17:22:46 [Message] kean -> Main Room: ok
2010-06-24 17:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a big "if"
2010-06-24 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially in light of the lack of structure in the MCO this week
2010-06-24 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ledges and fishhooks don't last more than 3-4 trading days
2010-06-24 17:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are brief respites in the trend
2010-06-24 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we wanted to give a guideline here as to when any chance of a fishhook would be under construction
2010-06-24 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see the brief two day hesitation point in the MCSUM as it was declining at the beginning of June?
2010-06-24 17:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we break below that level...the fishhook is destroyed
2010-06-24 17:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not only because of the length of the pattern
2010-06-24 17:25:56 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Try this link and see if it comes up hiker, it is the 500 or so issues Randy keeps for a "Bank" data set. overall it looks a little better. The financials he keeps track of is about 190 issues, and that chart looks like the SPX index right now http://home.comcast.net/~dem336/Data/bankew.png
2010-06-24 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but also because that little hesitation point is the same concept as that of this same hesitation point..a baby ledge
2010-06-24 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: super chart
2010-06-24 17:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: amazing how things look when they're not weighted
2010-06-24 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and how better they are when you compare what the A/D data is doing
2010-06-24 17:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCO's
2010-06-24 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and both of them are currently right around the -25 level
2010-06-24 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the general level in which we tend to see snapback attempts to the zero line
2010-06-24 17:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we do get a snapback attempt here
2010-06-24 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would slow the rate of descent on the MCSUM
2010-06-24 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that would increase the odds of the fishhook
2010-06-24 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: IF that happens
2010-06-24 17:30:52 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: thank you, Darris!
2010-06-24 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one would want to wait until the starting point of this direction move is taken out before adding to their positions...that is...above last Monday's high point on the MCSUM
2010-06-24 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both the SPX and OEX are minimally "oversold" on the their breadth MCO's
2010-06-24 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so that could give us some sort of bounce
2010-06-24 17:35:31 [Message] doc -> Main Room: The 10% trend is also quite oversold
2010-06-24 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking through the rest of the MCO's
2010-06-24 17:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of them have not broken below their early June zig zag areas
2010-06-24 17:36:04 [Message] doc -> Main Room: If you look past the unusually low values of late May and early June
2010-06-24 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yea
2010-06-24 17:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sigh
2010-06-24 17:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we have the breadth data, like the Bonds and Preferred, suggesting that we're more than likely correcting
2010-06-24 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just that we have no texture here near term on the short term trend (the MCO)
2010-06-24 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's going to be several days before we'll see any
2010-06-24 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the market may do between now and then is wide open
2010-06-24 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the bulls would want to see is that we start a snapback to or towards the zero line
2010-06-24 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then another move lower to test today's lows
2010-06-24 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a move back up towards the zero line, and if we get enough confidence, back above the zero line
2010-06-24 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: IF this happens...then we might see higher price highs
2010-06-24 17:38:58 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Don't look at XLY then if you want to think bullish
2010-06-24 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's been too much technical damage near term
2010-06-24 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I did last night
2010-06-24 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm sure it went to new lows today on the MCSUM
2010-06-24 17:39:21 [Message] doc -> Main Room: On a closing basis today, I see SOB now triggered
2010-06-24 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice that the SML and the TM breadth MCSUM's both found resistance at their -250 level
2010-06-24 17:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this suggests very weak internals here
2010-06-24 17:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...SOB trigger on the XLY
2010-06-24 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the XLY breadth MCSUM confirming the trigger
2010-06-24 17:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the market is thinking there isn't enough money out there for cyclical products
2010-06-24 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: cars...furniture...appliances, etc.
2010-06-24 17:41:49 [Message] Thespookyone -> Main Room: a preferred short at proper moment?
2010-06-24 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good news though
2010-06-24 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we now have bull divergence on the XLY
2010-06-24 17:42:04 [Message] doc -> Main Room: so if you are trading a SOB trigger, you short a partial position on the trigger and add after you break below the range of the first consolidation? Is that what you suggested the other night?
2010-06-24 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I like to short the trigger...and wait for the snapback to finish the position
2010-06-24 17:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the market just unwinds...you're in
2010-06-24 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it doesn't, it gives you an opportunity to set a stop, and if the conditions warrant on the snapback...then you add
2010-06-24 17:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: slow and sure
2010-06-24 17:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let the pattern play out
2010-06-24 17:43:44 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Is there an appropriate stop?
2010-06-24 17:43:53 [Message] doc -> Main Room: A close above the break?
2010-06-24 17:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually 8% keeps you honest initially
2010-06-24 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you must keep your losses to a minimum while allowing leeway
2010-06-24 17:44:53 [Message] doc -> Main Room: 8% would take you back up to the top of the SOB pattern.
2010-06-24 17:45:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: but in this case
2010-06-24 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would...I'm just looking at it now
2010-06-24 17:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if I were to play this...I would set the stop at 31.80
2010-06-24 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reason for this is that this is just above the intraday high of yesterday of the mid range close
2010-06-24 17:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's another thing
2010-06-24 17:46:14 [Message] doc -> Main Room: okay, about a 50% retrace of the height of the SOB
2010-06-24 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had many mid range closes yesterday which suggested an up close today
2010-06-24 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we got smashed
2010-06-24 17:46:43 [Message] cycletrader -> Main Room: What do you short here on xly? is there an ETF or individual stock?
2010-06-24 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...1 point stop on the XLY
2010-06-24 17:47:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we working on outside weekly bearish reversals on many indices
2010-06-24 17:47:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: almost all
2010-06-24 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XLY is the Consumer Discretionary ETF...you can short it or its weakest component
2010-06-24 17:47:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: any thoughts on that dave?
2010-06-24 17:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking...one sec
2010-06-24 17:47:56 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Thanks for the interesting discussion on XLY and SOB patterns, Fib
2010-06-24 17:47:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: last one was right before flash crash
2010-06-24 17:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dave...the pattern is bearish
2010-06-24 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: outside range...hard reversal
2010-06-24 17:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's NOT a key reversal
2010-06-24 17:49:17 [Message] doc -> Main Room: CT, I think you just look to short XLY in non-retirement accts. There might be an inverse Consumer Discretionary etf, don't have it off hand
2010-06-24 17:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wouldn't matter where we close...it will be an outside week
2010-06-24 17:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you are a subscriber to DP you can review the XLY components in the "Chart Books" area
2010-06-24 17:49:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: key.........depends on which index you look at
2010-06-24 17:49:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: some are
2010-06-24 17:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...key reversals are NOT in play
2010-06-24 17:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these are simple outside ranges
2010-06-24 17:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "key" reversals are very specific as their definition
2010-06-24 17:50:19 [Message] darris -> Main Room: proshares.com should list the Consumer ETFs for long and short
2010-06-24 17:50:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well i know of 8 current definitions of "key" so, depends on which one
2010-06-24 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's only one...mine! lol
2010-06-24 17:50:42 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Thanks, D
2010-06-24 17:50:43 [Message] darris -> Main Room: lol
2010-06-24 17:50:48 [Message] cycletrader -> Main Room: Doc, thank you.
2010-06-24 17:50:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and what lets say on spx would not be key for you?
2010-06-24 17:51:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Wait, too many D's. Thanks Darris
2010-06-24 17:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one sec...I'll give you the link for the tutorial - http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=1664477
2010-06-24 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for a reversal to be "key" it must meet 3 qualifiers
2010-06-24 17:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that the key reversal pattern came out of the futures market
2010-06-24 17:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the current weekly bar is just a range reversal
2010-06-24 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's enough to make money on given the current internals
2010-06-24 17:52:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: spx futs, if not for 1 min on Sunday night when futs opened it would have been
2010-06-24 17:52:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was on cash
2010-06-24 17:53:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the 3 qualifiers?
2010-06-24 17:53:08 [Message] darris -> Main Room: consumer goods uge, consumer services ucc, both long. szk and scc are the two short.
2010-06-24 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...read the tutorial when you get a chance
2010-06-24 17:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will make the most amount of sense
2010-06-24 17:53:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, the reversals i started to talk about were not of daily, but rather weekly
2010-06-24 17:53:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: isn't that worse
2010-06-24 17:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doesn't matter
2010-06-24 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the qualifiers remain consistent
2010-06-24 17:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why when they come together it's "key" to the price structure
2010-06-24 17:54:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, given what i remember about the markets potential from where the summations are, and the fact that the last outside weekly bearish reversal was the week before the flash crash
2010-06-24 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the main one here is that the reversal is not occurring at life of contract highs
2010-06-24 17:54:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i don't want to be long
2010-06-24 17:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the "flash crash" happened after a "key" reversal, didn't it?
2010-06-24 17:55:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well dave, it must meet 3 qualifiers
2010-06-24 17:55:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the tutorial
2010-06-24 17:55:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lol
2010-06-24 17:55:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: should make sense
2010-06-24 17:56:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not on es
2010-06-24 17:56:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was not key
2010-06-24 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the ES trades 24 hours
2010-06-24 17:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right?
2010-06-24 17:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (in theory anyway)
2010-06-24 17:56:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: did not open above closing price, close fri at 4:15
2010-06-24 17:56:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: till Sunday night
2010-06-24 17:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the cash
2010-06-24 17:56:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and close daily at 4.15 and reopens
2010-06-24 17:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you will see the key
2010-06-24 17:57:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not on cash
2010-06-24 17:57:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: either
2010-06-24 17:57:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but was on cash this time
2010-06-24 17:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm looking right at it Dave....the April highs
2010-06-24 17:57:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the opening price was not above the prior days close
2010-06-24 17:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes it was
2010-06-24 17:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm looking at the weekly
2010-06-24 17:57:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: open was 1217.07
2010-06-24 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you did say the weekly, right?
2010-06-24 17:58:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 1217.28 was prior close
2010-06-24 17:58:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: close but no cigar
2010-06-24 17:58:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but this week is
2010-06-24 17:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then I guess SC is wrong
2010-06-24 17:58:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and a lot more clear
2010-06-24 17:58:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: last week close was 1117.51
2010-06-24 17:59:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: open was 1122.79
2010-06-24 17:59:23 [Message] darris -> Main Room: This is the problem with the spx cash and futures. cash settles at 4pm and futures at 4:15pm, then the cash usually never prints a good open when there is a decent gap, as it is closer to the prior close. some judgment on close calls has to be used.
2010-06-24 17:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one sec
2010-06-24 17:59:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well that's why i think spx cash this week is that much more clear of a key reversal
2010-06-24 18:00:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 5 pts higher on this weeks open than last weeks close
2010-06-24 18:00:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and it usually prints close to unchanged on the open as the first stocks open for trading
2010-06-24 18:00:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but 5 pts?
2010-06-24 18:00:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: doesn't happen very often
2010-06-24 18:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/keyspx062410.png
2010-06-24 18:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it had the volume
2010-06-24 18:01:10 [Message] darris -> Main Room: I agree the cash is better. too much end of day squaring using futures at rydex proshares and direxion
2010-06-24 18:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was life of contract and open interest expanded into the reversal
2010-06-24 18:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 3 qualifiers
2010-06-24 18:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: onward
2010-06-24 18:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are now highly "oversold"
2010-06-24 18:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should look for a bounce as soon as Friday
2010-06-24 18:03:08 [Message] darris -> Main Room: fib_1618 as we near the end of chat today, can you give a couple of tips on what we should be looking at if we were to drift back into a bear market on this decline? thanks
2010-06-24 18:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: drift?
2010-06-24 18:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2010-06-24 18:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me finish up a bit
2010-06-24 18:03:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thought that a reversal pattern on a weekly time frame is more reliable than of a daily nature?
2010-06-24 18:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are now minimally "oversold"
2010-06-24 18:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is...only because of the time element involved
2010-06-24 18:04:19 [Message] darris -> Main Room: well after 4 days of down, we might get an up day before turning back down again. by the way, the week after the June quad witch is working well. now 12 in a row and 19 out of 21 were down
2010-06-24 18:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it has more clout
2010-06-24 18:04:42 [Message] Thespookyone -> Main Room: nice take, Darris
2010-06-24 18:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: overall...given the way the bulls have shown little in the way of backbone this week
2010-06-24 18:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're going have to prove themselves now
2010-06-24 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as we've been saying in every chat this month, it's going to take time to build a decent base
2010-06-24 18:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the historic "oversold" readings of May will not dry up and just blow away
2010-06-24 18:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it were on the volume side, it would be different
2010-06-24 18:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's not
2010-06-24 18:07:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, something i been looking at b/c of seasonality and summer, thought possibility of descending triangle on daily, where flash crash recovery highs being "A" and Mondays high being "C" of the descending triangle, on our way down to "D" in the es 1040's
2010-06-24 18:07:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thoughts?
2010-06-24 18:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how to play this? just let money flow be your guide
2010-06-24 18:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have none Dave
2010-06-24 18:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2010-06-24 18:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seriously
2010-06-24 18:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I really haven't sat down as yet to work a count
2010-06-24 18:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however
2010-06-24 18:08:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: internal watch? or technical watch? he he, j/k lol
2010-06-24 18:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the lack of follow through this week has increased the odds of your being on target here
2010-06-24 18:08:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ty dave
2010-06-24 18:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whew
2010-06-24 18:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 3.05
2010-06-24 18:08:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: death by 1000 cuts
2010-06-24 18:09:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: somewhere in the 900's
2010-06-24 18:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.21
2010-06-24 18:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a solid floor...at least temporary
2010-06-24 18:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.39
2010-06-24 18:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.04
2010-06-24 18:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 2.66
2010-06-24 18:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.11
2010-06-24 18:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so.......
2010-06-24 18:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I guess it all comes down to whether we're dive bombing or not
2010-06-24 18:11:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: omg dave, parting thought, i would love to hear your comments when you get a chance on the message board, of the implications of the euro vs. the Swiss franc, one of most amazing currency movements i have ever seen............and from what i know, bigger carry trade than dollar/yen ever was..........
2010-06-24 18:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you post a chart...I'll take a look at it
2010-06-24 18:11:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: unless you have time now.......lol, i don't have currency chart capability to post
2010-06-24 18:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is currently very nervous about something
2010-06-24 18:12:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: price is all you need on that chart
2010-06-24 18:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have no real comment on currencies right now
2010-06-24 18:12:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: euro/swiss franc, that picture worth 1000 words
2010-06-24 18:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...there's many problems over there
2010-06-24 18:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (shrug)
2010-06-24 18:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2010-06-24 18:13:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: when is euro going to cease trading as a currency?
2010-06-24 18:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or the union ending its charade?
2010-06-24 18:13:43 [Message] darris -> Main Room: What is the schedule for chat next week and subscriptions? thanks
2010-06-24 18:13:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, if Miami wasn't sea level, I'd have built a bunker
2010-06-24 18:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the schedule for the chat will be Tuesday's and Thursday's
2010-06-24 18:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this will be the last free chat
2010-06-24 18:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all chats will be treated as they always have been
2010-06-24 18:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we will go longer than usual (like today) when conditions warrant
2010-06-24 18:14:56 [Message] Thespookyone -> Main Room: sounds great
2010-06-24 18:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we will add sessions when market conditions dictate
2010-06-24 18:15:19 [Message] darris -> Main Room: I am looking forward to your subscription based service and the tremendous value it will provide. Thanks for making this available!!!
2010-06-24 18:15:26 [Message] cycletrader -> Main Room: Well, thank you everyone, and have a great weekend (and stay cool). See you next week...
2010-06-24 18:15:28 [Message] Thespookyone -> Main Room: ditto
2010-06-24 18:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any other questions on anything?
2010-06-24 18:15:52 [Message] cycletrader -> Main Room: Yes, thank you, Fib.
2010-06-24 18:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those who have already subscribed (thank you), you will be receiving your passwords on Monday
2010-06-24 18:15:58 [Message] Thespookyone -> Main Room: Thanks for your time!
2010-06-24 18:16:01 [Message] darris -> Main Room: Have a good weekend Fib, and all
2010-06-24 18:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you don't receive one by Monday night, please contact me
2010-06-24 18:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hopefully there won't be too many bugs to get out
2010-06-24 18:16:39 [Message] cycletrader -> Main Room: your email, Fib?
2010-06-24 18:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can always reach me at fib_1618@technicalwatch.com
2010-06-24 18:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will find all this information on the subscriber page...it's linked above
2010-06-24 18:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going home
2010-06-24 18:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2010-06-24 18:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2010-06-24 18:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

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"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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