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Posts: 4,419
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-06-23 15:59:31 fib1618: Tally Ho!
2016-06-23 15:59:42 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-06-23 16:02:21 thespookyone: Great, you, LOL
2016-06-23 16:02:42 fib1618: votes so far in the UK...55% stay, 46% leave
2016-06-23 16:02:51 thespookyone: thx
2016-06-23 16:03:09 fib1618: 2 "precincts" in...
2016-06-23 16:03:26 fib1618: if anyone wants to follow the vote in real time
2016-06-23 16:03:54 fib1618: go to
2016-06-23 16:04:14 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-06-23 16:05:30 thespookyone: Will probably move the market a bit, no?
2016-06-23 16:06:14 fib1618: well...the currency markets would likely be the most sensitive
2016-06-23 16:06:26 fib1618: as they will the rest of the financials
2016-06-23 16:07:15 fib1618: but stay or go...this is not the first vote we'll have on this...there are 2 or 3 other "countries" that are close to voting on the same or out
2016-06-23 16:07:34 thespookyone: may take a bit of fear out of gold, as well
2016-06-23 16:07:42 fib1618: big turnout though...about 70%
2016-06-23 16:07:52 fib1618: maybe
2016-06-23 16:07:56 fib1618: if the dollar slides, but I would think that it would be a safe haven
2016-06-23 16:08:05 fib1618: still too early though to know for sure
2016-06-23 16:08:12 thespookyone: yep
2016-06-23 16:08:18 fib1618: but if anyone is trading overnights, this is the channel to watch
2016-06-23 16:08:33 thespookyone: My friends in the UK are split at their houses-no help, LOL
2016-06-23 16:08:40 fib1618: [smile]
2016-06-23 16:08:50 fib1618: whether the EU collapses now or later
2016-06-23 16:08:57 thespookyone: strong emotions, too
2016-06-23 16:09:05 fib1618: this vote is whether or not the UK will fall with it
2016-06-23 16:09:17 thespookyone: wow, good call
2016-06-23 16:09:20 fib1618: the bottom line is, like here, it's an immigration problem that is the backbone of the referendum
2016-06-23 16:09:46 fib1618: OK...let's see what the market participants think
2016-06-23 16:09:51 fib1618: and get SC up
2016-06-23 16:10:42 fib1618: well...we got our small point resolution today
2016-06-23 16:10:43 fib1618: [smile]
2016-06-23 16:10:46 fib1618: OK...
2016-06-23 16:11:06 fib1618: after moving back below the zero line on Tuesday
2016-06-23 16:11:21 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now moved sharply back above this line of neutrality
2016-06-23 16:11:41 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated on the NYSE CO MCO components
2016-06-23 16:11:48 fib1618: so back to a technical buy signal today
2016-06-23 16:12:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart
2016-06-23 16:12:29 fib1618: and we see that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM has also moved above the sideways pattern seen earlier in the week
2016-06-23 16:12:53 fib1618: and this would suggest that a decision has been made...and we're in for a week or so of rally
2016-06-23 16:13:18 fib1618: we would like to see some upside follow through though before getting too excited
2016-06-23 16:13:30 fib1618: but today was a good character day for the CO bulls
2016-06-23 16:13:47 fib1618: let's see how the NYSE Composite breadth MCO did
2016-06-23 16:14:19 fib1618: and it too saw a breadth thrust back above its zero line today
2016-06-23 16:14:22 fib1618: though like the CO MCO
2016-06-23 16:14:28 fib1618: stopping short of the +25 level
2016-06-23 16:14:59 fib1618: looks like that the +750 level on the NYSE breadth MCSUM is also going to hold for now
2016-06-23 16:15:24 fib1618: and we now have a nice crossover buy signal as well in the NYSE MCO components
2016-06-23 16:15:37 fib1618: looking at the NYA price chart
2016-06-23 16:15:51 fib1618: and we see that we closed at the highs of the day
2016-06-23 16:16:09 fib1618: and the high point seen in the early part of the month
2016-06-23 16:16:13 fib1618: so far then
2016-06-23 16:16:44 fib1618: our expectation of some back and fill early this week looks to have turned into our next advance in the price structure
2016-06-23 16:16:57 fib1618: and if this road map were to continue
2016-06-23 16:17:33 fib1618: we should see prices advance going into the holiday weekend coming up next Friday
2016-06-23 16:18:03 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:18:13 fib1618: and here we also saw a thrust back above the zero line today
2016-06-23 16:19:00 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated on the NASDAQ MCO components
2016-06-23 16:19:14 fib1618: looking at the price chart and any close of the downside gap seen earlier in the month would pretty much cancel out the SOB idea
2016-06-23 16:20:17 fib1618: with any take out of the 4980 level probably accelerating the upside sequence
2016-06-23 16:20:39 fib1618: so far...looking good for the "in" crowd
2016-06-23 16:21:33 fib1618: whoops...and now it looks like we have a slight flip now with the "out" crowd leading
2016-06-23 16:21:44 fib1618: the Pound is now tanking
2016-06-23 16:22:11 fib1618: amazing to think that we're witnessing world history right now
2016-06-23 16:22:19 fib1618: back to work
2016-06-23 16:22:45 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:22:54 fib1618: and here we had quite a spurt to the upside today
2016-06-23 16:23:08 fib1618: finishing with a reading of +32
2016-06-23 16:23:21 fib1618: good technical action as well in the NDX MCO components
2016-06-23 16:23:29 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated
2016-06-23 16:23:49 fib1618: and as we look at the 21 day close up chart of the NDX breadth MCSUM
2016-06-23 16:24:06 fib1618: we see that it bounced just above the +250 level
2016-06-23 16:24:27 fib1618: and it's now trying to close its first gap resistance zone
2016-06-23 16:25:08 fib1618: nice looking breadth thrust today in the SPX breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:25:37 fib1618: curious as to what breadth plurality was sec
2016-06-23 16:25:57 fib1618: 4.86:1
2016-06-23 16:26:18 fib1618: and a big 3.58:1 for the NASDAQ
2016-06-23 16:26:23 fib1618: that's good buying
2016-06-23 16:26:32 fib1618: or was it short covering? [smile]
2016-06-23 16:26:41 fib1618: we'll try to figure that out later
2016-06-23 16:27:01 fib1618: for the SPX buyers
2016-06-23 16:27:46 fib1618: they will need to take out the early June highs at +46, and ideally above +50, for there to be a breakout
2016-06-23 16:28:03 fib1618: or in this specific case
2016-06-23 16:28:08 fib1618: new all time highs in the SPX itself
2016-06-23 16:29:06 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:29:25 fib1618: and here we did clear above the beginning June highs today
2016-06-23 16:29:33 fib1618: and this is a highly bullish event
2016-06-23 16:29:35 fib1618: however
2016-06-23 16:29:44 fib1618: we still need the broader market to confirm
2016-06-23 16:29:50 fib1618: until then
2016-06-23 16:30:04 fib1618: this is a flashing caution sign for the market bulls
2016-06-23 16:30:41 fib1618: as we don't want to see the top brass clearing the path for the should be the other way around
2016-06-23 16:30:56 fib1618: also a bit of a problem
2016-06-23 16:31:10 fib1618: is that the OEX MCO components have yet to move above the early June highs
2016-06-23 16:31:26 fib1618: and this internal divergence usually leads to a reset
2016-06-23 16:32:07 fib1618: still...we have good texture with the OEX MCO pattern
2016-06-23 16:32:19 fib1618: so we'll tip our hat to it as to what it may suggest
2016-06-23 16:32:52 fib1618: snapback to the zero line on Wednesday led to a breadth thrust today in the Dow breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:33:09 fib1618: but it remains below the beginning June highs
2016-06-23 16:33:24 fib1618: and this is another non confirmation within the top brass
2016-06-23 16:33:40 fib1618: the bulls then have to be very careful in not leading off
2016-06-23 16:35:46 fib1618: another little problem for the buyers is that the Dow did move to new reaction price highs today
2016-06-23 16:36:03 fib1618: but it wasn't with the benefit of the OEX and SPX basket of issues
2016-06-23 16:36:40 fib1618: that's a problem as the Dow tends to peak out last either in uptrends or downtrends
2016-06-23 16:36:51 fib1618: so we'll watch that on Friday
2016-06-23 16:37:13 fib1618: as with the other indices tonight
2016-06-23 16:37:35 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO is showing a constructive pattern of texture in its current sequence
2016-06-23 16:37:56 fib1618: but until it goes beyond the +25 level
2016-06-23 16:38:17 fib1618: this could one of the bull traps that we've seen happen many times in the past
2016-06-23 16:38:32 fib1618: on the positive side
2016-06-23 16:38:50 fib1618: we did generate a crossover buy signal in the MID MCO components
2016-06-23 16:39:12 fib1618: but looking at the 21 day close up chart of the MID breadth MCSUM
2016-06-23 16:39:39 fib1618: we see that it hasn't, as yet, cleared above the Friday/Monday consolidation/hesitation pattern
2016-06-23 16:40:26 fib1618: there was enough internal strength today to generated a minimal buy signal on the SML breadth MCO and its components
2016-06-23 16:40:59 fib1618: but it wasn't enough for the price action to take out the intraday highs of Monday
2016-06-23 16:41:06 fib1618: which would had triggered a buy stop
2016-06-23 16:41:42 fib1618: need more dynamics there...I don't trust the pattern
2016-06-23 16:41:56 fib1618: it looks "manufactured"
2016-06-23 16:42:34 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO joined the rest of the indices by moving back above its zero line today
2016-06-23 16:43:01 fib1618: after finding snapback resistance at or near its zero line on Tuesday and falling back a bit from that line on Wednesday
2016-06-23 16:43:22 fib1618: crossover buy signal there was well on the components
2016-06-23 16:43:29 fib1618: but with the TM MCO reading of only +13.
2016-06-23 16:43:52 fib1618: there isn't enough energy as yet to suggest that have seen an important low
2016-06-23 16:43:56 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 16:44:12 fib1618: as far as our ongoing blueprint for the month of June far, so good
2016-06-23 16:44:38 fib1618: but there some problems near term that need to be sorted quickly before we can move long again with confidence
2016-06-23 16:44:52 fib1618: let me go out of turn and check the BETS...brb
2016-06-23 16:46:05 fib1618: +65
2016-06-23 16:46:20 fib1618: so if that holds on Friday, we have a renewed buy signal
2016-06-23 16:46:29 fib1618: OK...sectors
2016-06-23 16:47:23 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO is supporting a bullish structure
2016-06-23 16:47:37 fib1618: but it finished today with a reading of +50
2016-06-23 16:47:47 fib1618: what makes this important is two fold
2016-06-23 16:48:11 fib1618: first is that we don't usually see prices trend until we move above this important level in the MCO
2016-06-23 16:48:48 fib1618: and second...if this natural area of resistance holds, the XLY breadth MCSUM won't be able to move back above its zero line
2016-06-23 16:49:12 fib1618: and prices will tend to take an abrupt turn to the downside if this should take place
2016-06-23 16:49:52 fib1618: short term though...things look bullish with the crossover buy in the components
2016-06-23 16:50:06 fib1618: so we'll have to see if there's any follow through or not on Friday
2016-06-23 16:51:20 fib1618: not surprisingly we had new all time closing highs today in the XLP index
2016-06-23 16:51:34 fib1618: as money continues to support basic, everyday staples
2016-06-23 16:51:59 fib1618: with the XLP breadth MCO showing good structure in its pattern sequence
2016-06-23 16:52:52 fib1618: one more good push by the buyers in the next day or so could really trigger an impressive advance in the price index
2016-06-23 16:53:03 fib1618: so we remain friendly there
2016-06-23 16:53:35 fib1618: back to a buy signal on the XLE breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:54:12 fib1618: but we'll need to see the pattern take out the early June highs of +45 before we'll be able to forecast new upside price objectives
2016-06-23 16:54:49 fib1618: and this would be helped by the XLE breadth MCSUM finding good support at the +250 level
2016-06-23 16:55:05 fib1618: as it has now turned "the cruise ship around" to the upside
2016-06-23 16:55:57 fib1618: so a take out of the early June highs would also mean that prices will be able to move above $70...and stay there
2016-06-23 16:56:18 fib1618: well, well, just look at what we got here!
2016-06-23 16:56:36 fib1618: all of a sudden there's been new life injected into the XLF breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:57:05 fib1618: but we'll need another day of follow through above today's close of +52 to confirm the change in direction
2016-06-23 16:57:27 fib1618: for now...a challenge of the early June highs is likely
2016-06-23 16:57:44 fib1618: but that's only .50 from current levels
2016-06-23 16:57:49 fib1618: not much to work with still
2016-06-23 16:57:53 fib1618: so standing aside continues to be the best option
2016-06-23 16:58:38 fib1618: "out" still leading in the UK
2016-06-23 16:59:21 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line now
2016-06-23 16:59:44 fib1618: and we have a crossover buy signal there as well in the components
2016-06-23 17:00:12 fib1618: but until we can get back above the +40 level
2016-06-23 17:00:31 fib1618: we'll call this a simple technical snapback from a deeply "oversold" extreme
2016-06-23 17:01:00 fib1618: buy signal as well in the XLI breadth MCO and components
2016-06-23 17:01:43 fib1618: but the pattern's texture isn't as strong as it should be
2016-06-23 17:02:18 fib1618: as we see too much play, both above and below, the zero line before today's push higher
2016-06-23 17:03:24 fib1618: like the other charts tonight
2016-06-23 17:03:40 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO and components generated a short term buy signal as well
2016-06-23 17:03:54 fib1618: but this MCO only made it to a +23
2016-06-23 17:04:00 fib1618: it's good...just not good enough
2016-06-23 17:04:25 fib1618: plus we don't have any back and fill as yet in the sequence
2016-06-23 17:05:04 fib1618: and it's rare to see us keep going here after a reading as low as the one we saw last week at -96
2016-06-23 17:05:21 fib1618: looks more like short covering today than fresh buying now
2016-06-23 17:05:41 fib1618: still seeing some good action in the XLK breadth MCO
2016-06-23 17:06:23 fib1618: but it still has some hurdles above current levels that will need to sorted before we'll call this one "in the clear"
2016-06-23 17:07:03 fib1618: and now the price pattern structure in the XLU appears to be showing a rounding top formation
2016-06-23 17:07:27 fib1618: though the XLU breadth MCO did find support today at the -51 level
2016-06-23 17:07:32 fib1618: so if we hold that
2016-06-23 17:07:43 fib1618: and then move back above +32
2016-06-23 17:08:03 fib1618: then like the XLP, this is another defensive sector that could see a nice run to the upside
2016-06-23 17:08:06 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 17:08:27 fib1618: although we're seeing some nice texture in many of the breadth MCO's
2016-06-23 17:09:08 fib1618: we're still a bit short from saying that we're going to see higher highs into next week with any kind of confidence
2016-06-23 17:09:58 fib1618: that confidence will either be confirmed on Friday...or we'll see some sort of reset, which could take the form of a knee jerk panic, if things don't go quite right overseas
2016-06-23 17:10:16 fib1618: "out" now leading by 3%
2016-06-23 17:10:30 fib1618: 19,000 votes
2016-06-23 17:10:49 fib1618: but the major populations won't be heard from for a couple more hours
2016-06-23 17:10:59 fib1618: and that's where the rub lies
2016-06-23 17:11:15 fib1618: let's take a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2016-06-23 17:11:56 fib1618: we're getting good strength in the NYSE volume MCO's...especially the composite
2016-06-23 17:12:08 fib1618: which settled today with a +32 reading
2016-06-23 17:12:19 fib1618: market appears to also be in sync to the upside as well
2016-06-23 17:12:49 fib1618: same with the NASDAQ volume MCO which is leading to the upside
2016-06-23 17:13:01 fib1618: just need confirmation there
2016-06-23 17:13:22 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO is up to the +24 level
2016-06-23 17:13:27 fib1618: need to see follow through there
2016-06-23 17:13:49 fib1618: we have good up volume plurality right now
2016-06-23 17:13:51 fib1618: so that's bullish
2016-06-23 17:14:02 fib1618: same with the SPX volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:14:29 fib1618: could have a ledge formation working with the NDX and SPX volume MCSUM's
2016-06-23 17:14:39 fib1618: so we need a quick gap expansion to the upside to cancel that
2016-06-23 17:15:09 fib1618: strong upside move as well in the OEX volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:15:20 fib1618: but it's lagging its breadth cousin in relation to the early June highs
2016-06-23 17:15:32 fib1618: so that's a problem that will need to be resolved...and could be part of a bull trap
2016-06-23 17:16:01 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO had a good day today
2016-06-23 17:16:08 fib1618: but is it too far, too fast?
2016-06-23 17:16:23 fib1618: MID volume MCO at +27
2016-06-23 17:16:39 fib1618: about as far as it can go for the sellers before they lose control
2016-06-23 17:16:48 fib1618: oh boy
2016-06-23 17:17:02 fib1618: and we barely made it back to the zero line in the SML volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:17:13 fib1618: with a reading of +5
2016-06-23 17:17:32 fib1618: oh...we also have Russell re-balance on Friday
2016-06-23 17:17:43 fib1618: so we have to watch out there
2016-06-23 17:18:01 fib1618: as this could be artificially holding things back for the small caps
2016-06-23 17:18:07 fib1618: we'll know by Monday on that
2016-06-23 17:18:26 fib1618: and a +24 reading on the TM volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:18:35 fib1618: and up against natural resistance
2016-06-23 17:18:39 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 17:18:46 fib1618: as we noted on Tuesday
2016-06-23 17:18:50 fib1618: the market wants to go higher
2016-06-23 17:18:59 fib1618: and has set itself up to do just that
2016-06-23 17:19:27 fib1618: but we don't have, as yet, enough broader market thrust to keep us from further backing and filling
2016-06-23 17:19:51 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2016-06-23 17:20:24 fib1618: and we have climactic activity on the CVI's today
2016-06-23 17:20:34 fib1618: so we should see a price top in the next 2 trading days
2016-06-23 17:21:00 fib1618: and we'll call the STVO's minimally "overbought" after being "oversold" on Tuesday
2016-06-23 17:21:27 fib1618: and the VTO's neutral and waiting for one side to take control
2016-06-23 17:21:42 fib1618: based on this...we likely saw short covering today
2016-06-23 17:21:50 fib1618: moving to the TRIN's
2016-06-23 17:22:03 fib1618: gawd...
2016-06-23 17:22:08 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .53
2016-06-23 17:22:10 fib1618: short covering
2016-06-23 17:22:20 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2016-06-23 17:22:31 fib1618: so any pullback here is likely to be short lived
2016-06-23 17:22:51 fib1618: like an emotional knee jerk response of an "out" vote?
2016-06-23 17:23:03 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .62
2016-06-23 17:23:06 fib1618: short covering
2016-06-23 17:23:15 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-06-23 17:23:25 fib1618: TM TRIN at .59
2016-06-23 17:23:36 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2016-06-23 17:23:39 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 17:23:48 fib1618: near term we are back to climactic activity
2016-06-23 17:24:00 fib1618: so even if we do have a break to the upside on Friday
2016-06-23 17:24:11 fib1618: it's likely to flame out early next week
2016-06-23 17:24:25 fib1618: market seems to be moving on emotion now
2016-06-23 17:24:44 fib1618: with, what looks to be, the anticipation of a positive "stay" outcome in the UK
2016-06-23 17:24:55 fib1618: but that bet may had been premature
2016-06-23 17:25:05 fib1618: intermediate term though
2016-06-23 17:25:24 fib1618: we remain buoyant enough to withstand any kind of disappointment that may come of it
2016-06-23 17:25:36 fib1618: and after any shake out that may occur
2016-06-23 17:25:53 fib1618: liquidity says that we should still see a rally into next Friday
2016-06-23 17:26:15 fib1618: near term cloudy, with a chance of stormy weather
2016-06-23 17:26:26 fib1618: but mostly sunny after this passes
2016-06-23 17:26:36 fib1618: we'll see what happens
2016-06-23 17:26:43 fib1618: anything else?
2016-06-23 17:27:02 fib1618: now 51% out, 49% in
2016-06-23 17:27:40 fib1618: it's now 1:30 in the morning local time in the UK
2016-06-23 17:28:08 fib1618: so we should have a pretty good handle on things in the next 4 hours
2016-06-23 17:28:12 fib1618: checking futures
2016-06-23 17:28:33 fib1618: Dow down 47
2016-06-23 17:28:36 fib1618: SPX down 7
2016-06-23 17:28:51 fib1618: maybe a blow off today...spidey sense tingling
2016-06-23 17:29:12 fib1618: <shrug>
2016-06-23 17:29:34 fib1618: just remain disciplined and remember what money is telling us...
2016-06-23 17:29:42 fib1618: good follow through to the upside on Friday, and we should see the all time highs challenged in many of the major indices
2016-06-23 17:30:03 fib1618: disappointment, and we back and fill for a day or so
2016-06-23 17:30:26 fib1618: but it shouldn't lead to anything important to the downside for the time being
2016-06-23 17:30:50 fib1618: anything else?
2016-06-23 17:31:04 fib1618: again you can watch the returns live on Sky News
2016-06-23 17:31:25 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-06-23 17:31:30 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-06-23 17:31:35 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2016-06-23 17:31:44 fib1618: and we'll see what we have to work with on Tuesday
2016-06-23 17:31:46 fib1618: good night

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