All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,534
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-06-23 15:59:31 fib1618: Tally Ho!
2016-06-23 15:59:42 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-06-23 16:02:21 thespookyone: Great, you, LOL
2016-06-23 16:02:42 fib1618: votes so far in the UK...55% stay, 46% leave
2016-06-23 16:02:51 thespookyone: thx
2016-06-23 16:03:09 fib1618: 2 "precincts" in...
2016-06-23 16:03:26 fib1618: if anyone wants to follow the vote in real time
2016-06-23 16:03:54 fib1618: go to http://pluto.tv/watch/sky-news
2016-06-23 16:04:14 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-06-23 16:05:30 thespookyone: Will probably move the market a bit, no?
2016-06-23 16:06:14 fib1618: well...the currency markets would likely be the most sensitive
2016-06-23 16:06:26 fib1618: as they go...so will the rest of the financials
2016-06-23 16:07:15 fib1618: but stay or go...this is not the first vote we'll have on this...there are 2 or 3 other "countries" that are close to voting on the same referendum...in or out
2016-06-23 16:07:34 thespookyone: may take a bit of fear out of gold, as well
2016-06-23 16:07:42 fib1618: big turnout though...about 70%
2016-06-23 16:07:52 fib1618: maybe
2016-06-23 16:07:56 fib1618: if the dollar slides, but I would think that it would be a safe haven
2016-06-23 16:08:05 fib1618: still too early though to know for sure
2016-06-23 16:08:12 thespookyone: yep
2016-06-23 16:08:18 fib1618: but if anyone is trading overnights, this is the channel to watch
2016-06-23 16:08:33 thespookyone: My friends in the UK are split at their houses-no help, LOL
2016-06-23 16:08:40 fib1618: [smile]
2016-06-23 16:08:50 fib1618: whether the EU collapses now or later
2016-06-23 16:08:57 thespookyone: strong emotions, too
2016-06-23 16:09:05 fib1618: this vote is whether or not the UK will fall with it
2016-06-23 16:09:17 thespookyone: wow, good call
2016-06-23 16:09:20 fib1618: the bottom line is, like here, it's an immigration problem that is the backbone of the referendum
2016-06-23 16:09:46 fib1618: OK...let's see what the market participants think
2016-06-23 16:09:51 fib1618: and get SC up
2016-06-23 16:10:42 fib1618: well...we got our small point resolution today
2016-06-23 16:10:43 fib1618: [smile]
2016-06-23 16:10:46 fib1618: OK...
2016-06-23 16:11:06 fib1618: after moving back below the zero line on Tuesday
2016-06-23 16:11:21 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now moved sharply back above this line of neutrality
2016-06-23 16:11:41 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated on the NYSE CO MCO components
2016-06-23 16:11:48 fib1618: so back to a technical buy signal today
2016-06-23 16:12:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart
2016-06-23 16:12:29 fib1618: and we see that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM has also moved above the sideways pattern seen earlier in the week
2016-06-23 16:12:53 fib1618: and this would suggest that a decision has been made...and we're in for a week or so of rally
2016-06-23 16:13:18 fib1618: we would like to see some upside follow through though before getting too excited
2016-06-23 16:13:30 fib1618: but today was a good character day for the CO bulls
2016-06-23 16:13:47 fib1618: let's see how the NYSE Composite breadth MCO did
2016-06-23 16:14:19 fib1618: and it too saw a breadth thrust back above its zero line today
2016-06-23 16:14:22 fib1618: though like the CO MCO
2016-06-23 16:14:28 fib1618: stopping short of the +25 level
2016-06-23 16:14:59 fib1618: looks like that the +750 level on the NYSE breadth MCSUM is also going to hold for now
2016-06-23 16:15:24 fib1618: and we now have a nice crossover buy signal as well in the NYSE MCO components
2016-06-23 16:15:37 fib1618: looking at the NYA price chart
2016-06-23 16:15:51 fib1618: and we see that we closed at the highs of the day
2016-06-23 16:16:09 fib1618: and the high point seen in the early part of the month
2016-06-23 16:16:13 fib1618: so far then
2016-06-23 16:16:44 fib1618: our expectation of some back and fill early this week looks to have turned into our next advance in the price structure
2016-06-23 16:16:57 fib1618: and if this road map were to continue
2016-06-23 16:17:33 fib1618: we should see prices advance going into the holiday weekend coming up next Friday
2016-06-23 16:18:03 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:18:13 fib1618: and here we also saw a thrust back above the zero line today
2016-06-23 16:19:00 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated on the NASDAQ MCO components
2016-06-23 16:19:14 fib1618: looking at the price chart and any close of the downside gap seen earlier in the month would pretty much cancel out the SOB idea
2016-06-23 16:20:17 fib1618: with any take out of the 4980 level probably accelerating the upside sequence
2016-06-23 16:20:39 fib1618: so far...looking good for the "in" crowd
2016-06-23 16:21:33 fib1618: whoops...and now it looks like we have a slight flip now with the "out" crowd leading
2016-06-23 16:21:44 fib1618: the Pound is now tanking
2016-06-23 16:22:11 fib1618: amazing to think that we're witnessing world history right now
2016-06-23 16:22:19 fib1618: back to work
2016-06-23 16:22:45 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:22:54 fib1618: and here we had quite a spurt to the upside today
2016-06-23 16:23:08 fib1618: finishing with a reading of +32
2016-06-23 16:23:21 fib1618: good technical action as well in the NDX MCO components
2016-06-23 16:23:29 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated
2016-06-23 16:23:49 fib1618: and as we look at the 21 day close up chart of the NDX breadth MCSUM
2016-06-23 16:24:06 fib1618: we see that it bounced just above the +250 level
2016-06-23 16:24:27 fib1618: and it's now trying to close its first gap resistance zone
2016-06-23 16:25:08 fib1618: nice looking breadth thrust today in the SPX breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:25:37 fib1618: curious as to what breadth plurality was today...one sec
2016-06-23 16:25:57 fib1618: 4.86:1
2016-06-23 16:26:18 fib1618: and a big 3.58:1 for the NASDAQ
2016-06-23 16:26:23 fib1618: that's good buying
2016-06-23 16:26:32 fib1618: or was it short covering? [smile]
2016-06-23 16:26:41 fib1618: we'll try to figure that out later
2016-06-23 16:27:01 fib1618: for the SPX buyers
2016-06-23 16:27:46 fib1618: they will need to take out the early June highs at +46, and ideally above +50, for there to be a breakout
2016-06-23 16:28:03 fib1618: or in this specific case
2016-06-23 16:28:08 fib1618: new all time highs in the SPX itself
2016-06-23 16:29:06 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:29:25 fib1618: and here we did clear above the beginning June highs today
2016-06-23 16:29:33 fib1618: and this is a highly bullish event
2016-06-23 16:29:35 fib1618: however
2016-06-23 16:29:44 fib1618: we still need the broader market to confirm
2016-06-23 16:29:50 fib1618: until then
2016-06-23 16:30:04 fib1618: this is a flashing caution sign for the market bulls
2016-06-23 16:30:41 fib1618: as we don't want to see the top brass clearing the path for the soldiers...it should be the other way around
2016-06-23 16:30:56 fib1618: also a bit of a problem
2016-06-23 16:31:10 fib1618: is that the OEX MCO components have yet to move above the early June highs
2016-06-23 16:31:26 fib1618: and this internal divergence usually leads to a reset
2016-06-23 16:32:07 fib1618: still...we have good texture with the OEX MCO pattern
2016-06-23 16:32:19 fib1618: so we'll tip our hat to it as to what it may suggest
2016-06-23 16:32:52 fib1618: snapback to the zero line on Wednesday led to a breadth thrust today in the Dow breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:33:09 fib1618: but it remains below the beginning June highs
2016-06-23 16:33:24 fib1618: and this is another non confirmation within the top brass
2016-06-23 16:33:40 fib1618: the bulls then have to be very careful in not leading off
2016-06-23 16:35:46 fib1618: another little problem for the buyers is that the Dow did move to new reaction price highs today
2016-06-23 16:36:03 fib1618: but it wasn't with the benefit of the OEX and SPX basket of issues
2016-06-23 16:36:40 fib1618: that's a problem as the Dow tends to peak out last either in uptrends or downtrends
2016-06-23 16:36:51 fib1618: so we'll watch that on Friday
2016-06-23 16:37:13 fib1618: as with the other indices tonight
2016-06-23 16:37:35 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO is showing a constructive pattern of texture in its current sequence
2016-06-23 16:37:56 fib1618: but until it goes beyond the +25 level
2016-06-23 16:38:17 fib1618: this could one of the bull traps that we've seen happen many times in the past
2016-06-23 16:38:32 fib1618: on the positive side
2016-06-23 16:38:50 fib1618: we did generate a crossover buy signal in the MID MCO components
2016-06-23 16:39:12 fib1618: but looking at the 21 day close up chart of the MID breadth MCSUM
2016-06-23 16:39:39 fib1618: we see that it hasn't, as yet, cleared above the Friday/Monday consolidation/hesitation pattern
2016-06-23 16:40:26 fib1618: there was enough internal strength today to generated a minimal buy signal on the SML breadth MCO and its components
2016-06-23 16:40:59 fib1618: but it wasn't enough for the price action to take out the intraday highs of Monday
2016-06-23 16:41:06 fib1618: which would had triggered a buy stop
2016-06-23 16:41:42 fib1618: need more dynamics there...I don't trust the pattern
2016-06-23 16:41:56 fib1618: it looks "manufactured"
2016-06-23 16:42:34 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO joined the rest of the indices by moving back above its zero line today
2016-06-23 16:43:01 fib1618: after finding snapback resistance at or near its zero line on Tuesday and falling back a bit from that line on Wednesday
2016-06-23 16:43:22 fib1618: crossover buy signal there was well on the components
2016-06-23 16:43:29 fib1618: but with the TM MCO reading of only +13.
2016-06-23 16:43:52 fib1618: there isn't enough energy as yet to suggest that have seen an important low
2016-06-23 16:43:56 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 16:44:12 fib1618: as far as our ongoing blueprint for the month of June goes...so far, so good
2016-06-23 16:44:38 fib1618: but there some problems near term that need to be sorted quickly before we can move long again with confidence
2016-06-23 16:44:52 fib1618: let me go out of turn and check the BETS...brb
2016-06-23 16:46:05 fib1618: +65
2016-06-23 16:46:20 fib1618: so if that holds on Friday, we have a renewed buy signal
2016-06-23 16:46:29 fib1618: OK...sectors
2016-06-23 16:47:23 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO is supporting a bullish structure
2016-06-23 16:47:37 fib1618: but it finished today with a reading of +50
2016-06-23 16:47:47 fib1618: what makes this important is two fold
2016-06-23 16:48:11 fib1618: first is that we don't usually see prices trend until we move above this important level in the MCO
2016-06-23 16:48:48 fib1618: and second...if this natural area of resistance holds, the XLY breadth MCSUM won't be able to move back above its zero line
2016-06-23 16:49:12 fib1618: and prices will tend to take an abrupt turn to the downside if this should take place
2016-06-23 16:49:52 fib1618: short term though...things look bullish with the crossover buy in the components
2016-06-23 16:50:06 fib1618: so we'll have to see if there's any follow through or not on Friday
2016-06-23 16:51:20 fib1618: not surprisingly we had new all time closing highs today in the XLP index
2016-06-23 16:51:34 fib1618: as money continues to support basic, everyday staples
2016-06-23 16:51:59 fib1618: with the XLP breadth MCO showing good structure in its pattern sequence
2016-06-23 16:52:52 fib1618: one more good push by the buyers in the next day or so could really trigger an impressive advance in the price index
2016-06-23 16:53:03 fib1618: so we remain friendly there
2016-06-23 16:53:35 fib1618: back to a buy signal on the XLE breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:54:12 fib1618: but we'll need to see the pattern take out the early June highs of +45 before we'll be able to forecast new upside price objectives
2016-06-23 16:54:49 fib1618: and this would be helped by the XLE breadth MCSUM finding good support at the +250 level
2016-06-23 16:55:05 fib1618: as it has now turned "the cruise ship around" to the upside
2016-06-23 16:55:57 fib1618: so a take out of the early June highs would also mean that prices will be able to move above $70...and stay there
2016-06-23 16:56:18 fib1618: well, well, just look at what we got here!
2016-06-23 16:56:36 fib1618: all of a sudden there's been new life injected into the XLF breadth MCO
2016-06-23 16:57:05 fib1618: but we'll need another day of follow through above today's close of +52 to confirm the change in direction
2016-06-23 16:57:27 fib1618: for now...a challenge of the early June highs is likely
2016-06-23 16:57:44 fib1618: but that's only .50 from current levels
2016-06-23 16:57:49 fib1618: not much to work with still
2016-06-23 16:57:53 fib1618: so standing aside continues to be the best option
2016-06-23 16:58:38 fib1618: "out" still leading in the UK
2016-06-23 16:59:21 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line now
2016-06-23 16:59:44 fib1618: and we have a crossover buy signal there as well in the components
2016-06-23 17:00:12 fib1618: but until we can get back above the +40 level
2016-06-23 17:00:31 fib1618: we'll call this a simple technical snapback from a deeply "oversold" extreme
2016-06-23 17:01:00 fib1618: buy signal as well in the XLI breadth MCO and components
2016-06-23 17:01:43 fib1618: but the pattern's texture isn't as strong as it should be
2016-06-23 17:02:18 fib1618: as we see too much play, both above and below, the zero line before today's push higher
2016-06-23 17:03:24 fib1618: like the other charts tonight
2016-06-23 17:03:40 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO and components generated a short term buy signal as well
2016-06-23 17:03:54 fib1618: but this MCO only made it to a +23
2016-06-23 17:04:00 fib1618: it's good...just not good enough
2016-06-23 17:04:25 fib1618: plus we don't have any back and fill as yet in the sequence
2016-06-23 17:05:04 fib1618: and it's rare to see us keep going here after a reading as low as the one we saw last week at -96
2016-06-23 17:05:21 fib1618: looks more like short covering today than fresh buying now
2016-06-23 17:05:41 fib1618: still seeing some good action in the XLK breadth MCO
2016-06-23 17:06:23 fib1618: but it still has some hurdles above current levels that will need to sorted before we'll call this one "in the clear"
2016-06-23 17:07:03 fib1618: and now the price pattern structure in the XLU appears to be showing a rounding top formation
2016-06-23 17:07:27 fib1618: though the XLU breadth MCO did find support today at the -51 level
2016-06-23 17:07:32 fib1618: so if we hold that
2016-06-23 17:07:43 fib1618: and then move back above +32
2016-06-23 17:08:03 fib1618: then like the XLP, this is another defensive sector that could see a nice run to the upside
2016-06-23 17:08:06 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 17:08:27 fib1618: although we're seeing some nice texture in many of the breadth MCO's
2016-06-23 17:09:08 fib1618: we're still a bit short from saying that we're going to see higher highs into next week with any kind of confidence
2016-06-23 17:09:58 fib1618: that confidence will either be confirmed on Friday...or we'll see some sort of reset, which could take the form of a knee jerk panic, if things don't go quite right overseas
2016-06-23 17:10:16 fib1618: "out" now leading by 3%
2016-06-23 17:10:30 fib1618: 19,000 votes
2016-06-23 17:10:49 fib1618: but the major populations won't be heard from for a couple more hours
2016-06-23 17:10:59 fib1618: and that's where the rub lies
2016-06-23 17:11:15 fib1618: let's take a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2016-06-23 17:11:56 fib1618: we're getting good strength in the NYSE volume MCO's...especially the composite
2016-06-23 17:12:08 fib1618: which settled today with a +32 reading
2016-06-23 17:12:19 fib1618: market appears to also be in sync to the upside as well
2016-06-23 17:12:49 fib1618: same with the NASDAQ volume MCO which is leading to the upside
2016-06-23 17:13:01 fib1618: just need confirmation there
2016-06-23 17:13:22 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO is up to the +24 level
2016-06-23 17:13:27 fib1618: need to see follow through there
2016-06-23 17:13:49 fib1618: we have good up volume plurality right now
2016-06-23 17:13:51 fib1618: so that's bullish
2016-06-23 17:14:02 fib1618: same with the SPX volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:14:29 fib1618: could have a ledge formation working with the NDX and SPX volume MCSUM's
2016-06-23 17:14:39 fib1618: so we need a quick gap expansion to the upside to cancel that
2016-06-23 17:15:09 fib1618: strong upside move as well in the OEX volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:15:20 fib1618: but it's lagging its breadth cousin in relation to the early June highs
2016-06-23 17:15:32 fib1618: so that's a problem that will need to be resolved...and could be part of a bull trap
2016-06-23 17:16:01 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO had a good day today
2016-06-23 17:16:08 fib1618: but is it too far, too fast?
2016-06-23 17:16:23 fib1618: MID volume MCO at +27
2016-06-23 17:16:39 fib1618: about as far as it can go for the sellers before they lose control
2016-06-23 17:16:48 fib1618: oh boy
2016-06-23 17:17:02 fib1618: and we barely made it back to the zero line in the SML volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:17:13 fib1618: with a reading of +5
2016-06-23 17:17:32 fib1618: oh...we also have Russell re-balance on Friday
2016-06-23 17:17:43 fib1618: so we have to watch out there
2016-06-23 17:18:01 fib1618: as this could be artificially holding things back for the small caps
2016-06-23 17:18:07 fib1618: we'll know by Monday on that
2016-06-23 17:18:26 fib1618: and a +24 reading on the TM volume MCO
2016-06-23 17:18:35 fib1618: and up against natural resistance
2016-06-23 17:18:39 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 17:18:46 fib1618: as we noted on Tuesday
2016-06-23 17:18:50 fib1618: the market wants to go higher
2016-06-23 17:18:59 fib1618: and has set itself up to do just that
2016-06-23 17:19:27 fib1618: but we don't have, as yet, enough broader market thrust to keep us from further backing and filling
2016-06-23 17:19:51 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2016-06-23 17:20:24 fib1618: and we have climactic activity on the CVI's today
2016-06-23 17:20:34 fib1618: so we should see a price top in the next 2 trading days
2016-06-23 17:21:00 fib1618: and we'll call the STVO's minimally "overbought" after being "oversold" on Tuesday
2016-06-23 17:21:27 fib1618: and the VTO's neutral and waiting for one side to take control
2016-06-23 17:21:42 fib1618: based on this...we likely saw short covering today
2016-06-23 17:21:50 fib1618: moving to the TRIN's
2016-06-23 17:22:03 fib1618: gawd...
2016-06-23 17:22:08 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .53
2016-06-23 17:22:10 fib1618: short covering
2016-06-23 17:22:20 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2016-06-23 17:22:31 fib1618: so any pullback here is likely to be short lived
2016-06-23 17:22:51 fib1618: like an emotional knee jerk response of an "out" vote?
2016-06-23 17:23:03 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .62
2016-06-23 17:23:06 fib1618: short covering
2016-06-23 17:23:15 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-06-23 17:23:25 fib1618: TM TRIN at .59
2016-06-23 17:23:36 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2016-06-23 17:23:39 fib1618: so...
2016-06-23 17:23:48 fib1618: near term we are back to climactic activity
2016-06-23 17:24:00 fib1618: so even if we do have a break to the upside on Friday
2016-06-23 17:24:11 fib1618: it's likely to flame out early next week
2016-06-23 17:24:25 fib1618: market seems to be moving on emotion now
2016-06-23 17:24:44 fib1618: with, what looks to be, the anticipation of a positive "stay" outcome in the UK
2016-06-23 17:24:55 fib1618: but that bet may had been premature
2016-06-23 17:25:05 fib1618: intermediate term though
2016-06-23 17:25:24 fib1618: we remain buoyant enough to withstand any kind of disappointment that may come of it
2016-06-23 17:25:36 fib1618: and after any shake out that may occur
2016-06-23 17:25:53 fib1618: liquidity says that we should still see a rally into next Friday
2016-06-23 17:26:15 fib1618: near term cloudy, with a chance of stormy weather
2016-06-23 17:26:26 fib1618: but mostly sunny after this passes
2016-06-23 17:26:36 fib1618: we'll see what happens
2016-06-23 17:26:43 fib1618: anything else?
2016-06-23 17:27:02 fib1618: now 51% out, 49% in
2016-06-23 17:27:40 fib1618: it's now 1:30 in the morning local time in the UK
2016-06-23 17:28:08 fib1618: so we should have a pretty good handle on things in the next 4 hours
2016-06-23 17:28:12 fib1618: checking futures
2016-06-23 17:28:33 fib1618: Dow down 47
2016-06-23 17:28:36 fib1618: SPX down 7
2016-06-23 17:28:51 fib1618: maybe a blow off today...spidey sense tingling
2016-06-23 17:29:12 fib1618: <shrug>
2016-06-23 17:29:34 fib1618: just remain disciplined and remember what money is telling us...
2016-06-23 17:29:42 fib1618: good follow through to the upside on Friday, and we should see the all time highs challenged in many of the major indices
2016-06-23 17:30:03 fib1618: disappointment, and we back and fill for a day or so
2016-06-23 17:30:26 fib1618: but it shouldn't lead to anything important to the downside for the time being
2016-06-23 17:30:50 fib1618: anything else?
2016-06-23 17:31:04 fib1618: again you can watch the returns live on Sky News
2016-06-23 17:31:25 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-06-23 17:31:30 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-06-23 17:31:35 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2016-06-23 17:31:44 fib1618: and we'll see what we have to work with on Tuesday
2016-06-23 17:31:46 fib1618: good night


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch