Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,745
Reply with quote #1
2016-06-23 15:59:31 fib1618: Tally Ho!
2016-06-23 15:59:42 fib1618: how is everyone? 2016-06-23 16:02:21 thespookyone: Great, you, LOL 2016-06-23 16:02:42 fib1618: votes so far in the UK...55% stay, 46% leave 2016-06-23 16:02:51 thespookyone: thx 2016-06-23 16:03:09 fib1618: 2 "precincts" in... 2016-06-23 16:03:26 fib1618: if anyone wants to follow the vote in real time 2016-06-23 16:03:54 fib1618: go to http://pluto.tv/watch/sky-news 2016-06-23 16:04:14 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2016-06-23 16:05:30 thespookyone: Will probably move the market a bit, no? 2016-06-23 16:06:14 fib1618: well...the currency markets would likely be the most sensitive 2016-06-23 16:06:26 fib1618: as they go...so will the rest of the financials 2016-06-23 16:07:15 fib1618: but stay or go...this is not the first vote we'll have on this...there are 2 or 3 other "countries" that are close to voting on the same referendum...in or out 2016-06-23 16:07:34 thespookyone: may take a bit of fear out of gold, as well 2016-06-23 16:07:42 fib1618: big turnout though...about 70% 2016-06-23 16:07:52 fib1618: maybe 2016-06-23 16:07:56 fib1618: if the dollar slides, but I would think that it would be a safe haven 2016-06-23 16:08:05 fib1618: still too early though to know for sure 2016-06-23 16:08:12 thespookyone: yep 2016-06-23 16:08:18 fib1618: but if anyone is trading overnights, this is the channel to watch 2016-06-23 16:08:33 thespookyone: My friends in the UK are split at their houses-no help, LOL 2016-06-23 16:08:40 fib1618: 2016-06-23 16:08:50 fib1618: whether the EU collapses now or later 2016-06-23 16:08:57 thespookyone: strong emotions, too 2016-06-23 16:09:05 fib1618: this vote is whether or not the UK will fall with it 2016-06-23 16:09:17 thespookyone: wow, good call 2016-06-23 16:09:20 fib1618: the bottom line is, like here, it's an immigration problem that is the backbone of the referendum 2016-06-23 16:09:46 fib1618: OK...let's see what the market participants think 2016-06-23 16:09:51 fib1618: and get SC up 2016-06-23 16:10:42 fib1618: well...we got our small point resolution today 2016-06-23 16:10:43 fib1618: 2016-06-23 16:10:46 fib1618: OK... 2016-06-23 16:11:06 fib1618: after moving back below the zero line on Tuesday 2016-06-23 16:11:21 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now moved sharply back above this line of neutrality 2016-06-23 16:11:41 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated on the NYSE CO MCO components 2016-06-23 16:11:48 fib1618: so back to a technical buy signal today 2016-06-23 16:12:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart 2016-06-23 16:12:29 fib1618: and we see that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM has also moved above the sideways pattern seen earlier in the week 2016-06-23 16:12:53 fib1618: and this would suggest that a decision has been made...and we're in for a week or so of rally 2016-06-23 16:13:18 fib1618: we would like to see some upside follow through though before getting too excited 2016-06-23 16:13:30 fib1618: but today was a good character day for the CO bulls 2016-06-23 16:13:47 fib1618: let's see how the NYSE Composite breadth MCO did 2016-06-23 16:14:19 fib1618: and it too saw a breadth thrust back above its zero line today 2016-06-23 16:14:22 fib1618: though like the CO MCO 2016-06-23 16:14:28 fib1618: stopping short of the +25 level 2016-06-23 16:14:59 fib1618: looks like that the +750 level on the NYSE breadth MCSUM is also going to hold for now 2016-06-23 16:15:24 fib1618: and we now have a nice crossover buy signal as well in the NYSE MCO components 2016-06-23 16:15:37 fib1618: looking at the NYA price chart 2016-06-23 16:15:51 fib1618: and we see that we closed at the highs of the day 2016-06-23 16:16:09 fib1618: and the high point seen in the early part of the month 2016-06-23 16:16:13 fib1618: so far then 2016-06-23 16:16:44 fib1618: our expectation of some back and fill early this week looks to have turned into our next advance in the price structure 2016-06-23 16:16:57 fib1618: and if this road map were to continue 2016-06-23 16:17:33 fib1618: we should see prices advance going into the holiday weekend coming up next Friday 2016-06-23 16:18:03 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2016-06-23 16:18:13 fib1618: and here we also saw a thrust back above the zero line today 2016-06-23 16:19:00 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated on the NASDAQ MCO components 2016-06-23 16:19:14 fib1618: looking at the price chart and any close of the downside gap seen earlier in the month would pretty much cancel out the SOB idea 2016-06-23 16:20:17 fib1618: with any take out of the 4980 level probably accelerating the upside sequence 2016-06-23 16:20:39 fib1618: so far...looking good for the "in" crowd 2016-06-23 16:21:33 fib1618: whoops...and now it looks like we have a slight flip now with the "out" crowd leading 2016-06-23 16:21:44 fib1618: the Pound is now tanking 2016-06-23 16:22:11 fib1618: amazing to think that we're witnessing world history right now 2016-06-23 16:22:19 fib1618: back to work 2016-06-23 16:22:45 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO 2016-06-23 16:22:54 fib1618: and here we had quite a spurt to the upside today 2016-06-23 16:23:08 fib1618: finishing with a reading of +32 2016-06-23 16:23:21 fib1618: good technical action as well in the NDX MCO components 2016-06-23 16:23:29 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal generated 2016-06-23 16:23:49 fib1618: and as we look at the 21 day close up chart of the NDX breadth MCSUM 2016-06-23 16:24:06 fib1618: we see that it bounced just above the +250 level 2016-06-23 16:24:27 fib1618: and it's now trying to close its first gap resistance zone 2016-06-23 16:25:08 fib1618: nice looking breadth thrust today in the SPX breadth MCO 2016-06-23 16:25:37 fib1618: curious as to what breadth plurality was today...one sec 2016-06-23 16:25:57 fib1618: 4.86:1 2016-06-23 16:26:18 fib1618: and a big 3.58:1 for the NASDAQ 2016-06-23 16:26:23 fib1618: that's good buying 2016-06-23 16:26:32 fib1618: or was it short covering? 2016-06-23 16:26:41 fib1618: we'll try to figure that out later 2016-06-23 16:27:01 fib1618: for the SPX buyers 2016-06-23 16:27:46 fib1618: they will need to take out the early June highs at +46, and ideally above +50, for there to be a breakout 2016-06-23 16:28:03 fib1618: or in this specific case 2016-06-23 16:28:08 fib1618: new all time highs in the SPX itself 2016-06-23 16:29:06 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO 2016-06-23 16:29:25 fib1618: and here we did clear above the beginning June highs today 2016-06-23 16:29:33 fib1618: and this is a highly bullish event 2016-06-23 16:29:35 fib1618: however 2016-06-23 16:29:44 fib1618: we still need the broader market to confirm 2016-06-23 16:29:50 fib1618: until then 2016-06-23 16:30:04 fib1618: this is a flashing caution sign for the market bulls 2016-06-23 16:30:41 fib1618: as we don't want to see the top brass clearing the path for the soldiers...it should be the other way around 2016-06-23 16:30:56 fib1618: also a bit of a problem 2016-06-23 16:31:10 fib1618: is that the OEX MCO components have yet to move above the early June highs 2016-06-23 16:31:26 fib1618: and this internal divergence usually leads to a reset 2016-06-23 16:32:07 fib1618: still...we have good texture with the OEX MCO pattern 2016-06-23 16:32:19 fib1618: so we'll tip our hat to it as to what it may suggest 2016-06-23 16:32:52 fib1618: snapback to the zero line on Wednesday led to a breadth thrust today in the Dow breadth MCO 2016-06-23 16:33:09 fib1618: but it remains below the beginning June highs 2016-06-23 16:33:24 fib1618: and this is another non confirmation within the top brass 2016-06-23 16:33:40 fib1618: the bulls then have to be very careful in not leading off 2016-06-23 16:35:46 fib1618: another little problem for the buyers is that the Dow did move to new reaction price highs today 2016-06-23 16:36:03 fib1618: but it wasn't with the benefit of the OEX and SPX basket of issues 2016-06-23 16:36:40 fib1618: that's a problem as the Dow tends to peak out last either in uptrends or downtrends 2016-06-23 16:36:51 fib1618: so we'll watch that on Friday 2016-06-23 16:37:13 fib1618: as with the other indices tonight 2016-06-23 16:37:35 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO is showing a constructive pattern of texture in its current sequence 2016-06-23 16:37:56 fib1618: but until it goes beyond the +25 level 2016-06-23 16:38:17 fib1618: this could one of the bull traps that we've seen happen many times in the past 2016-06-23 16:38:32 fib1618: on the positive side 2016-06-23 16:38:50 fib1618: we did generate a crossover buy signal in the MID MCO components 2016-06-23 16:39:12 fib1618: but looking at the 21 day close up chart of the MID breadth MCSUM 2016-06-23 16:39:39 fib1618: we see that it hasn't, as yet, cleared above the Friday/Monday consolidation/hesitation pattern 2016-06-23 16:40:26 fib1618: there was enough internal strength today to generated a minimal buy signal on the SML breadth MCO and its components 2016-06-23 16:40:59 fib1618: but it wasn't enough for the price action to take out the intraday highs of Monday 2016-06-23 16:41:06 fib1618: which would had triggered a buy stop 2016-06-23 16:41:42 fib1618: need more dynamics there...I don't trust the pattern 2016-06-23 16:41:56 fib1618: it looks "manufactured" 2016-06-23 16:42:34 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO joined the rest of the indices by moving back above its zero line today 2016-06-23 16:43:01 fib1618: after finding snapback resistance at or near its zero line on Tuesday and falling back a bit from that line on Wednesday 2016-06-23 16:43:22 fib1618: crossover buy signal there was well on the components 2016-06-23 16:43:29 fib1618: but with the TM MCO reading of only +13. 2016-06-23 16:43:52 fib1618: there isn't enough energy as yet to suggest that have seen an important low 2016-06-23 16:43:56 fib1618: so... 2016-06-23 16:44:12 fib1618: as far as our ongoing blueprint for the month of June goes...so far, so good 2016-06-23 16:44:38 fib1618: but there some problems near term that need to be sorted quickly before we can move long again with confidence 2016-06-23 16:44:52 fib1618: let me go out of turn and check the BETS...brb 2016-06-23 16:46:05 fib1618: +65 2016-06-23 16:46:20 fib1618: so if that holds on Friday, we have a renewed buy signal 2016-06-23 16:46:29 fib1618: OK...sectors 2016-06-23 16:47:23 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO is supporting a bullish structure 2016-06-23 16:47:37 fib1618: but it finished today with a reading of +50 2016-06-23 16:47:47 fib1618: what makes this important is two fold 2016-06-23 16:48:11 fib1618: first is that we don't usually see prices trend until we move above this important level in the MCO 2016-06-23 16:48:48 fib1618: and second...if this natural area of resistance holds, the XLY breadth MCSUM won't be able to move back above its zero line 2016-06-23 16:49:12 fib1618: and prices will tend to take an abrupt turn to the downside if this should take place 2016-06-23 16:49:52 fib1618: short term though...things look bullish with the crossover buy in the components 2016-06-23 16:50:06 fib1618: so we'll have to see if there's any follow through or not on Friday 2016-06-23 16:51:20 fib1618: not surprisingly we had new all time closing highs today in the XLP index 2016-06-23 16:51:34 fib1618: as money continues to support basic, everyday staples 2016-06-23 16:51:59 fib1618: with the XLP breadth MCO showing good structure in its pattern sequence 2016-06-23 16:52:52 fib1618: one more good push by the buyers in the next day or so could really trigger an impressive advance in the price index 2016-06-23 16:53:03 fib1618: so we remain friendly there 2016-06-23 16:53:35 fib1618: back to a buy signal on the XLE breadth MCO 2016-06-23 16:54:12 fib1618: but we'll need to see the pattern take out the early June highs of +45 before we'll be able to forecast new upside price objectives 2016-06-23 16:54:49 fib1618: and this would be helped by the XLE breadth MCSUM finding good support at the +250 level 2016-06-23 16:55:05 fib1618: as it has now turned "the cruise ship around" to the upside 2016-06-23 16:55:57 fib1618: so a take out of the early June highs would also mean that prices will be able to move above $70...and stay there 2016-06-23 16:56:18 fib1618: well, well, just look at what we got here! 2016-06-23 16:56:36 fib1618: all of a sudden there's been new life injected into the XLF breadth MCO 2016-06-23 16:57:05 fib1618: but we'll need another day of follow through above today's close of +52 to confirm the change in direction 2016-06-23 16:57:27 fib1618: for now...a challenge of the early June highs is likely 2016-06-23 16:57:44 fib1618: but that's only .50 from current levels 2016-06-23 16:57:49 fib1618: not much to work with still 2016-06-23 16:57:53 fib1618: so standing aside continues to be the best option 2016-06-23 16:58:38 fib1618: "out" still leading in the UK 2016-06-23 16:59:21 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line now 2016-06-23 16:59:44 fib1618: and we have a crossover buy signal there as well in the components 2016-06-23 17:00:12 fib1618: but until we can get back above the +40 level 2016-06-23 17:00:31 fib1618: we'll call this a simple technical snapback from a deeply "oversold" extreme 2016-06-23 17:01:00 fib1618: buy signal as well in the XLI breadth MCO and components 2016-06-23 17:01:43 fib1618: but the pattern's texture isn't as strong as it should be 2016-06-23 17:02:18 fib1618: as we see too much play, both above and below, the zero line before today's push higher 2016-06-23 17:03:24 fib1618: like the other charts tonight 2016-06-23 17:03:40 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO and components generated a short term buy signal as well 2016-06-23 17:03:54 fib1618: but this MCO only made it to a +23 2016-06-23 17:04:00 fib1618: it's good...just not good enough 2016-06-23 17:04:25 fib1618: plus we don't have any back and fill as yet in the sequence 2016-06-23 17:05:04 fib1618: and it's rare to see us keep going here after a reading as low as the one we saw last week at -96 2016-06-23 17:05:21 fib1618: looks more like short covering today than fresh buying now 2016-06-23 17:05:41 fib1618: still seeing some good action in the XLK breadth MCO 2016-06-23 17:06:23 fib1618: but it still has some hurdles above current levels that will need to sorted before we'll call this one "in the clear" 2016-06-23 17:07:03 fib1618: and now the price pattern structure in the XLU appears to be showing a rounding top formation 2016-06-23 17:07:27 fib1618: though the XLU breadth MCO did find support today at the -51 level 2016-06-23 17:07:32 fib1618: so if we hold that 2016-06-23 17:07:43 fib1618: and then move back above +32 2016-06-23 17:08:03 fib1618: then like the XLP, this is another defensive sector that could see a nice run to the upside 2016-06-23 17:08:06 fib1618: so... 2016-06-23 17:08:27 fib1618: although we're seeing some nice texture in many of the breadth MCO's 2016-06-23 17:09:08 fib1618: we're still a bit short from saying that we're going to see higher highs into next week with any kind of confidence 2016-06-23 17:09:58 fib1618: that confidence will either be confirmed on Friday...or we'll see some sort of reset, which could take the form of a knee jerk panic, if things don't go quite right overseas 2016-06-23 17:10:16 fib1618: "out" now leading by 3% 2016-06-23 17:10:30 fib1618: 19,000 votes 2016-06-23 17:10:49 fib1618: but the major populations won't be heard from for a couple more hours 2016-06-23 17:10:59 fib1618: and that's where the rub lies 2016-06-23 17:11:15 fib1618: let's take a quick look at the volume McClellan's 2016-06-23 17:11:56 fib1618: we're getting good strength in the NYSE volume MCO's...especially the composite 2016-06-23 17:12:08 fib1618: which settled today with a +32 reading 2016-06-23 17:12:19 fib1618: market appears to also be in sync to the upside as well 2016-06-23 17:12:49 fib1618: same with the NASDAQ volume MCO which is leading to the upside 2016-06-23 17:13:01 fib1618: just need confirmation there 2016-06-23 17:13:22 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO is up to the +24 level 2016-06-23 17:13:27 fib1618: need to see follow through there 2016-06-23 17:13:49 fib1618: we have good up volume plurality right now 2016-06-23 17:13:51 fib1618: so that's bullish 2016-06-23 17:14:02 fib1618: same with the SPX volume MCO 2016-06-23 17:14:29 fib1618: could have a ledge formation working with the NDX and SPX volume MCSUM's 2016-06-23 17:14:39 fib1618: so we need a quick gap expansion to the upside to cancel that 2016-06-23 17:15:09 fib1618: strong upside move as well in the OEX volume MCO 2016-06-23 17:15:20 fib1618: but it's lagging its breadth cousin in relation to the early June highs 2016-06-23 17:15:32 fib1618: so that's a problem that will need to be resolved...and could be part of a bull trap 2016-06-23 17:16:01 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO had a good day today 2016-06-23 17:16:08 fib1618: but is it too far, too fast? 2016-06-23 17:16:23 fib1618: MID volume MCO at +27 2016-06-23 17:16:39 fib1618: about as far as it can go for the sellers before they lose control 2016-06-23 17:16:48 fib1618: oh boy 2016-06-23 17:17:02 fib1618: and we barely made it back to the zero line in the SML volume MCO 2016-06-23 17:17:13 fib1618: with a reading of +5 2016-06-23 17:17:32 fib1618: oh...we also have Russell re-balance on Friday 2016-06-23 17:17:43 fib1618: so we have to watch out there 2016-06-23 17:18:01 fib1618: as this could be artificially holding things back for the small caps 2016-06-23 17:18:07 fib1618: we'll know by Monday on that 2016-06-23 17:18:26 fib1618: and a +24 reading on the TM volume MCO 2016-06-23 17:18:35 fib1618: and up against natural resistance 2016-06-23 17:18:39 fib1618: so... 2016-06-23 17:18:46 fib1618: as we noted on Tuesday 2016-06-23 17:18:50 fib1618: the market wants to go higher 2016-06-23 17:18:59 fib1618: and has set itself up to do just that 2016-06-23 17:19:27 fib1618: but we don't have, as yet, enough broader market thrust to keep us from further backing and filling 2016-06-23 17:19:51 fib1618: moving to the OBV's 2016-06-23 17:20:24 fib1618: and we have climactic activity on the CVI's today 2016-06-23 17:20:34 fib1618: so we should see a price top in the next 2 trading days 2016-06-23 17:21:00 fib1618: and we'll call the STVO's minimally "overbought" after being "oversold" on Tuesday 2016-06-23 17:21:27 fib1618: and the VTO's neutral and waiting for one side to take control 2016-06-23 17:21:42 fib1618: based on this...we likely saw short covering today 2016-06-23 17:21:50 fib1618: moving to the TRIN's 2016-06-23 17:22:03 fib1618: gawd... 2016-06-23 17:22:08 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .53 2016-06-23 17:22:10 fib1618: short covering 2016-06-23 17:22:20 fib1618: Open 10 at .98 2016-06-23 17:22:31 fib1618: so any pullback here is likely to be short lived 2016-06-23 17:22:51 fib1618: like an emotional knee jerk response of an "out" vote? 2016-06-23 17:23:03 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .62 2016-06-23 17:23:06 fib1618: short covering 2016-06-23 17:23:15 fib1618: Open 10 at .92 2016-06-23 17:23:25 fib1618: TM TRIN at .59 2016-06-23 17:23:36 fib1618: Open 10 at .96 2016-06-23 17:23:39 fib1618: so... 2016-06-23 17:23:48 fib1618: near term we are back to climactic activity 2016-06-23 17:24:00 fib1618: so even if we do have a break to the upside on Friday 2016-06-23 17:24:11 fib1618: it's likely to flame out early next week 2016-06-23 17:24:25 fib1618: market seems to be moving on emotion now 2016-06-23 17:24:44 fib1618: with, what looks to be, the anticipation of a positive "stay" outcome in the UK 2016-06-23 17:24:55 fib1618: but that bet may had been premature 2016-06-23 17:25:05 fib1618: intermediate term though 2016-06-23 17:25:24 fib1618: we remain buoyant enough to withstand any kind of disappointment that may come of it 2016-06-23 17:25:36 fib1618: and after any shake out that may occur 2016-06-23 17:25:53 fib1618: liquidity says that we should still see a rally into next Friday 2016-06-23 17:26:15 fib1618: near term cloudy, with a chance of stormy weather 2016-06-23 17:26:26 fib1618: but mostly sunny after this passes 2016-06-23 17:26:36 fib1618: we'll see what happens 2016-06-23 17:26:43 fib1618: anything else? 2016-06-23 17:27:02 fib1618: now 51% out, 49% in 2016-06-23 17:27:40 fib1618: it's now 1:30 in the morning local time in the UK 2016-06-23 17:28:08 fib1618: so we should have a pretty good handle on things in the next 4 hours 2016-06-23 17:28:12 fib1618: checking futures 2016-06-23 17:28:33 fib1618: Dow down 47 2016-06-23 17:28:36 fib1618: SPX down 7 2016-06-23 17:28:51 fib1618: maybe a blow off today...spidey sense tingling 2016-06-23 17:29:12 fib1618: <shrug> 2016-06-23 17:29:34 fib1618: just remain disciplined and remember what money is telling us... 2016-06-23 17:29:42 fib1618: good follow through to the upside on Friday, and we should see the all time highs challenged in many of the major indices 2016-06-23 17:30:03 fib1618: disappointment, and we back and fill for a day or so 2016-06-23 17:30:26 fib1618: but it shouldn't lead to anything important to the downside for the time being 2016-06-23 17:30:50 fib1618: anything else? 2016-06-23 17:31:04 fib1618: again you can watch the returns live on Sky News 2016-06-23 17:31:25 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else 2016-06-23 17:31:30 fib1618: I'm going to take off 2016-06-23 17:31:35 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend 2016-06-23 17:31:44 fib1618: and we'll see what we have to work with on Tuesday 2016-06-23 17:31:46 fib1618: good night __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977