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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-06-21 15:59:53 fib1618: good day
2016-06-21 15:59:57 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-06-21 16:01:14 thespookyone: great, thanks
2016-06-21 16:02:52 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-06-21 16:06:12 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-06-21 16:06:16 tuna: that was some serious chop today
2016-06-21 16:06:33 fib1618: "laborious"
2016-06-21 16:06:36 fib1618: [smile]
2016-06-21 16:06:52 fib1618: after snapping back to the zero line on Monday
2016-06-21 16:07:03 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2016-06-21 16:07:16 fib1618: coming in with a small point change
2016-06-21 16:07:30 fib1618: looking at the CO MCO components
2016-06-21 16:07:43 fib1618: and we see that we're still in a negative crossover configuration
2016-06-21 16:08:01 fib1618: but both components are back above their zero lines
2016-06-21 16:08:27 fib1618: so with the MCO below its zero line
2016-06-21 16:08:34 fib1618: and the components above theirs
2016-06-21 16:08:45 fib1618: we have the usual chop in prices that comes along with this
2016-06-21 16:08:52 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-06-21 16:09:06 fib1618: and we see that have leveled off now at just below the +500 level
2016-06-21 16:09:48 fib1618: and looking for some support to continue to move the intermediate trend of money flow back to a rising configuration
2016-06-21 16:09:57 fib1618: looking at the NYA price chart itself
2016-06-21 16:10:08 fib1618: and we had the usual reflex rally on Monday
2016-06-21 16:10:16 fib1618: after being compressed late last week
2016-06-21 16:10:21 fib1618: and on the bullish side
2016-06-21 16:10:31 fib1618: we did not close the gap from yesterday
2016-06-21 16:10:43 fib1618: in fact
2016-06-21 16:10:54 fib1618: today's price bar was range bound
2016-06-21 16:11:11 fib1618: and this would suggest another attempt toward higher prices on Wednesday
2016-06-21 16:11:32 fib1618: well...strike that
2016-06-21 16:11:51 fib1618: although we closed at the lows of the day on Monday
2016-06-21 16:11:53 fib1618: we were up
2016-06-21 16:12:04 fib1618: so the indication is that we should have a down close on Wednesday
2016-06-21 16:12:16 fib1618: with Thursday's vote in the UK coming the next day
2016-06-21 16:12:24 fib1618: so with the MCO at its zero line
2016-06-21 16:13:01 fib1618: it would appear, at least at this early review, that traders are likely to stand aside until Thursday afternoon when the tally's will start to come in
2016-06-21 16:13:20 fib1618: remember that this is a 5 hour difference between the east coast and the UK
2016-06-21 16:13:36 fib1618: I would have to check when the close is...
2016-06-21 16:13:52 fib1618: but let's say 8:00...that would bring us to the last hour of trading on Thursday
2016-06-21 16:14:09 fib1618: if someone could check that it would appreciated
2016-06-21 16:14:34 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-06-21 16:14:59 fib1618: and here too we had a small point change today after finishing higher from Monday's snapback to the zero line
2016-06-21 16:15:13 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2016-06-21 16:15:18 fib1618: (surprise, surprise)
2016-06-21 16:15:31 fib1618: unlike the CO components
2016-06-21 16:15:47 fib1618: we do have a crossover buy signal here with the Composite components
2016-06-21 16:16:01 fib1618: and with the MCO above its zero line
2016-06-21 16:16:10 fib1618: this would be a technical buy signal for the short term trend
2016-06-21 16:16:33 fib1618: not really convincing as much of this is likely due to short covering going into Thursday's vote (we'll assume that to be the major item on the table)
2016-06-21 16:17:13 fib1618: as we saw with the NYSE CO MCSUM
2016-06-21 16:17:31 fib1618: the NYSE Composite MCSUM is also attempting to hold near its own 250 multiple of support at just above the +750 level
2016-06-21 16:17:59 fib1618: this would suggest that the interest rate sensitive issues continue to bolster market activity at this time
2016-06-21 16:18:25 fib1618: and we see this all to clear in our weekend reviews of the advance/decline charts
2016-06-21 16:18:51 fib1618: unlike the NYSE combo
2016-06-21 16:19:05 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO fell short of fully snapping back to its zero line on Monday
2016-06-21 16:19:23 fib1618: peaking out with a reading of -9
2016-06-21 16:19:40 fib1618: a bit of a small pullback here as well
2016-06-21 16:20:10 fib1618: though now we have a pretty good series of bottoms above bottoms controlling the longer term pattern from the early May lows
2016-06-21 16:20:29 fib1618: remembering that our blueprint suggested some sort of back and fill early this week
2016-06-21 16:20:49 fib1618: we might see this choppy behavior extend into Wednesday
2016-06-21 16:21:19 fib1618: no real help with the price structure in the NASDAQ though
2016-06-21 16:21:33 fib1618: as it showed a nasty exhaustion price bar on Monday
2016-06-21 16:21:38 fib1618: but found its footing today
2016-06-21 16:22:23 fib1618: sort of like trying to climb a mountain of ice and slipping suddenly but finding an area to put your spikes in to hang on
2016-06-21 16:22:57 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM continues to sag lower though
2016-06-21 16:23:25 fib1618: and it wouldn't be too surprising to see an all out challenge of the zero line here before we see a good rebound
2016-06-21 16:23:59 fib1618: one thing we do have now is a nice buy and sell point for the index itself
2016-06-21 16:24:06 fib1618: .10 above yesterday's intraday highs
2016-06-21 16:24:21 fib1618: and .10 below Thursday's intraday lows
2016-06-21 16:24:32 fib1618: otherwise...we're likely to move sideways
2016-06-21 16:25:00 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO is showing a bit more strength of late
2016-06-21 16:25:05 fib1618: as it continues to move higher
2016-06-21 16:25:16 tuna: Results on Brexit start after 10 pm in England 5 pm. Eastern time
2016-06-21 16:25:18 fib1618: and peaking today with a -9
2016-06-21 16:25:30 fib1618: so after the market closes
2016-06-21 16:25:32 fib1618: thank you
2016-06-21 16:25:42 fib1618: so it's going to be a wild overnight
2016-06-21 16:25:49 tuna: yep
2016-06-21 16:26:19 fib1618: I wouldn't touch it
2016-06-21 16:26:22 fib1618: nope
2016-06-21 16:26:24 fib1618: not me [smile]
2016-06-21 16:26:35 fib1618: back to the NDX
2016-06-21 16:26:52 fib1618: and we see that though both of the components are back above their zero line
2016-06-21 16:27:05 fib1618: we continue to work with a negative crossover
2016-06-21 16:27:21 fib1618: and interesting to note here
2016-06-21 16:27:34 fib1618: is that the NDX breadth MCSUM is just above its +250 level
2016-06-21 16:27:53 fib1618: so another area of natural MCSUM support is having its influence
2016-06-21 16:28:18 fib1618: zero line snapback for the SPX breadth MCO was completed today
2016-06-21 16:28:47 fib1618: with a positive crossover in the SPX MCO components
2016-06-21 16:29:30 fib1618: and the SPX breadth MCSUM coming closer to the +500 level with a finish today of +580
2016-06-21 16:30:38 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO has now moved back above its zero line today
2016-06-21 16:30:57 fib1618: and we have a crossover buy in the components
2016-06-21 16:31:14 fib1618: maybe this is where much of the relief rally has lied here
2016-06-21 16:31:28 fib1618: both with the NDX and OEX and their weighting with last Friday's OPEX
2016-06-21 16:32:20 fib1618: you can once again see our trading range development on the OEX daily price chart
2016-06-21 16:32:43 fib1618: and for those wondering about the inverse head and shoulders idea from last week
2016-06-21 16:33:08 fib1618: this needs to trigger now or it's not the correct interpretation based on the look of the pattern
2016-06-21 16:33:35 fib1618: as rarely do shoulders look so different from each other...we usually have symmetry
2016-06-21 16:33:46 fib1618: I guess it's going to come down to the MID and SML
2016-06-21 16:33:53 fib1618: let's see how the Dow looks
2016-06-21 16:34:27 fib1618: OK...well it's now back up to +25 resistance with a reading today of +27
2016-06-21 16:34:38 fib1618: crossover buy on the components
2016-06-21 16:35:00 fib1618: and the Dow breadth MCSUM is now rising after bottoming near the +250 level last week
2016-06-21 16:35:18 fib1618: so it looks like, so far, a rally toward quality
2016-06-21 16:35:35 fib1618: and with the interest rate sensitives...defensive in nature
2016-06-21 16:35:59 fib1618: zero line resistance holding on the MID breadth MCO
2016-06-21 16:36:02 fib1618: so no help there
2016-06-21 16:36:26 fib1618: with a negative crossover configuration on the MID Components
2016-06-21 16:36:33 fib1618: though both are nicely above their zero lines
2016-06-21 16:36:54 fib1618: inside range day on the MID suggests a down close on Wednesday
2016-06-21 16:37:18 fib1618: looks like simple "evening up"
2016-06-21 16:37:35 fib1618: zero line resistance holding on the SML breadth MCO
2016-06-21 16:37:42 fib1618: and in both the MID and SML breadth MCSUM's
2016-06-21 16:37:52 fib1618: we can see that we continue to sag lower here as well
2016-06-21 16:37:57 fib1618: taken together
2016-06-21 16:38:14 fib1618: it looks like a simple compression based short covering rally on Monday
2016-06-21 16:38:22 fib1618: that ran out of steam in the last hour
2016-06-21 16:38:29 fib1618: and then we have no direction
2016-06-21 16:38:48 fib1618: and that there was little follow up buying, or short covering, by traders today
2016-06-21 16:39:03 fib1618: the market is keying in on something, that's for sure
2016-06-21 16:39:19 fib1618: and after moving to a -5
2016-06-21 16:39:32 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2016-06-21 16:39:35 fib1618: with a small point change
2016-06-21 16:39:53 fib1618: and the components on a negative crossover
2016-06-21 16:39:58 fib1618: but both above their zero lines
2016-06-21 16:40:01 fib1618: so...
2016-06-21 16:40:09 fib1618: we'll know for sure later
2016-06-21 16:40:19 fib1618: but it looks like we had a simple short covering rally on Monday
2016-06-21 16:40:38 fib1618: after market makers evidently accumulated a ton of stock on Friday
2016-06-21 16:40:44 fib1618: and needed to unload it quickly
2016-06-21 16:40:53 fib1618: and why we had the gap to the upside
2016-06-21 16:41:02 fib1618: keeping in mind that...
2016-06-21 16:41:11 fib1618: it's not people buying that make price move higher
2016-06-21 16:41:22 fib1618: it's prices moving higher that make people buy (or cover)
2016-06-21 16:41:59 fib1618: some good strength today in the XLE
2016-06-21 16:42:14 fib1618: price in the XLP looks to be leading higher
2016-06-21 16:42:40 fib1618: the XLF is "I think I can" mode
2016-06-21 16:42:47 fib1618: very sloppy overall
2016-06-21 16:43:16 fib1618: the XLV is the weakest sector
2016-06-21 16:43:25 fib1618: the XLK looking like a leader here
2016-06-21 16:43:41 fib1618: and the XLU is highly compressed
2016-06-21 16:43:50 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's
2016-06-21 16:44:35 fib1618: and we see that both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's are acting like twins
2016-06-21 16:44:40 fib1618: as both have a reading of +11
2016-06-21 16:45:16 fib1618: with both on a crossover buy with their components
2016-06-21 16:45:32 fib1618: market sure wants to go higher it would seem
2016-06-21 16:45:39 fib1618: as we continue to move in sync all around
2016-06-21 16:46:06 fib1618: small point change on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2016-06-21 16:46:23 fib1618: as it's leading its breadth cousin by about 4 data points to the upside
2016-06-21 16:46:27 fib1618: so that's a positive
2016-06-21 16:46:41 fib1618: same with the NDX volume MCO
2016-06-21 16:47:01 fib1618: wow...this market is really in sync here
2016-06-21 16:47:13 fib1618: so whatever the big move is going to be
2016-06-21 16:47:26 fib1618: we'll likely see everything move in this direction
2016-06-21 16:47:51 fib1618: SPX volume MCO is at a +11
2016-06-21 16:48:00 fib1618: so it's leading breadth to the upside
2016-06-21 16:48:57 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO is now at the +22 level
2016-06-21 16:49:00 fib1618: but more importantly
2016-06-21 16:49:20 fib1618: it has broken above the series of declining tops from late May/early June
2016-06-21 16:50:10 fib1618: good start...but it needs some backup support to carry it over the goal line for the buyers
2016-06-21 16:50:34 fib1618: we have good texture development now with the Dow volume MCO
2016-06-21 16:50:46 fib1618: as it found resistance near the zero line last week
2016-06-21 16:50:48 fib1618: pulled back
2016-06-21 16:50:56 fib1618: and has now moved back above the zero line
2016-06-21 16:51:28 fib1618: the MID volume MCO has also fulfilled its snapback to or toward its zero line
2016-06-21 16:51:44 fib1618: and it's leading breadth, as small as the difference is, to the upside
2016-06-21 16:52:12 fib1618: and then we get to the SML volume MCO and it's having issues right now
2016-06-21 16:52:30 fib1618: as it could not move back above its zero line
2016-06-21 16:53:09 fib1618: and it's a rare event to see the market rally from a major low if the small caps aren't at least showing better character in its pattern
2016-06-21 16:53:35 fib1618: which leads us to believe that we'll fail on any further attempt to move higher...on a near term basis (next couple of days)
2016-06-21 16:53:59 fib1618: and snapback complete to the TM volume zero line as well
2016-06-21 16:54:20 fib1618: while the TM volume components show a slight positive crossover today
2016-06-21 16:54:38 fib1618: with a small point change noted on the TM volume MCO
2016-06-21 16:54:39 fib1618: so...
2016-06-21 16:54:43 fib1618: technically
2016-06-21 16:55:13 fib1618: our expectation from Thursday of a snapback to or toward the MCO zero lines by early this week has been met
2016-06-21 16:55:22 fib1618: and the market, overall, can be called neutral
2016-06-21 16:55:35 fib1618: with a good short term balance between buyers and sellers noted
2016-06-21 16:55:40 fib1618: also of note is that most of the strength right now seems to be in the cream stocks
2016-06-21 16:56:03 fib1618: those in the NDX, OEX and Dow
2016-06-21 16:56:33 fib1618: and usually when we see a lack of broader leadership in areas like the MID, SML, and NYA
2016-06-21 16:56:59 fib1618: the likely outcome is that we're going to need a bit more back and fill before we have a more secure foothold for prices to advance
2016-06-21 16:57:11 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's look
2016-06-21 16:57:43 fib1618: well...CVI's are elevated with the recent short covering
2016-06-21 16:58:00 fib1618: and both the STVO's and VTO's are rock steady neutral
2016-06-21 16:58:06 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2016-06-21 16:58:17 fib1618: the exciting thing is...
2016-06-21 16:58:20 fib1618: for traders
2016-06-21 16:58:28 fib1618: whatever the eventual move is going to be
2016-06-21 16:58:33 fib1618: it's going to be a good one
2016-06-21 16:58:38 fib1618: maybe 3-5%
2016-06-21 16:58:47 fib1618: and the tighter the spring
2016-06-21 16:59:02 fib1618: the bigger the unwinding process
2016-06-21 16:59:18 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .80
2016-06-21 16:59:31 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2016-06-21 16:59:53 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .68
2016-06-21 17:00:03 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-06-21 17:00:21 fib1618: TM TRIN at .79
2016-06-21 17:00:35 fib1618: Open 10 at .97
2016-06-21 17:00:37 fib1618: so...
2016-06-21 17:00:48 fib1618: we don't have much of a floor below us right now
2016-06-21 17:01:11 fib1618: so any rumors that may come out overnight in the way of polls (for example) could hit the overnights pretty hard
2016-06-21 17:01:23 fib1618: at this point though
2016-06-21 17:01:28 fib1618: taking emotion aside
2016-06-21 17:01:36 fib1618: the short term trend is now neutral
2016-06-21 17:01:48 fib1618: with the intermediate term trend fighting to stay on the buy side
2016-06-21 17:01:59 fib1618: on a historic basis many of the MCSUM's have been above their zero lines for what one would called "longer than usual"
2016-06-21 17:02:52 fib1618: so the odds are that we're going to need to see additional unwinding before the buyers will have a better handle on things
2016-06-21 17:03:10 fib1618: following our blueprint of the last two weeks
2016-06-21 17:03:27 fib1618: the expectation is for back and filling (and possibly diverging) early this week
2016-06-21 17:03:43 fib1618: and then a rally into the following weekend's holiday period
2016-06-21 17:03:59 fib1618: so far...there's nothing out there that says anything different from that
2016-06-21 17:04:21 fib1618: so we'll continue to travel this road best served until something else pops up
2016-06-21 17:04:29 fib1618: let's check the BETS
2016-06-21 17:05:12 fib1618: NAAD line is highly compressed here
2016-06-21 17:05:44 fib1618: +60
2016-06-21 17:05:59 fib1618: "hold with a bullish bias"
2016-06-21 17:06:07 fib1618: and that seems reasonable
2016-06-21 17:06:27 fib1618: let me look around a bit...
2016-06-21 17:07:06 fib1618: P/C ratios are neutral on the 10 day
2016-06-21 17:07:44 fib1618: we had a flip on Mark's sentiment for this past weekend... 35% bulls, 29% bears
2016-06-21 17:08:39 fib1618: not much to talk about...
2016-06-21 17:08:49 fib1618: anything else we should be looking at here?
2016-06-21 17:09:31 tuna: think you covered it
2016-06-21 17:10:24 fib1618: if I had to guess here...I would think that much of the action is going to be based on any news from overseas
2016-06-21 17:10:58 fib1618: but I'm not all that good at guessing [smile]
2016-06-21 17:11:10 tuna: hit and run
2016-06-21 17:11:14 fib1618: pretty much
2016-06-21 17:11:19 fib1618: short term is mixed
2016-06-21 17:11:24 fib1618: intermediate term is mixed
2016-06-21 17:11:31 fib1618: broader market is firm
2016-06-21 17:11:33 fib1618: but not leading
2016-06-21 17:11:53 fib1618: and money is searching out the old standbys it would seem
2016-06-21 17:12:09 fib1618: let me check the asset classes and we'll call it a day
2016-06-21 17:12:54 fib1618: yields are back up to the 20 day EMA at 1.7%
2016-06-21 17:13:19 fib1618: gold also back down to its 20 day EMA today
2016-06-21 17:13:49 fib1618: with SAR's triggered on both (gold, sell; notes, sell)
2016-06-21 17:14:16 fib1618: kinda suggests a stable week
2016-06-21 17:14:22 fib1618: but much of this is technical
2016-06-21 17:14:43 fib1618: CRB is in a triangle
2016-06-21 17:15:11 fib1618: SAR buy on WTIC
2016-06-21 17:15:22 fib1618: price structure looks bullish there
2016-06-21 17:16:03 fib1618: and that's about it...nervous trading going on right now
2016-06-21 17:16:41 fib1618: nothing else on your minds?
2016-06-21 17:16:58 fib1618: then we'll call it a day
2016-06-21 17:17:05 fib1618: everyone have a super couple of days
2016-06-21 17:17:16 fib1618: and we'll see what kind of set ups we have on Thursday
2016-06-21 17:17:18 fib1618: good night

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