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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-06-19 19:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-06-19 19:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-06-19 19:01:25 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Great thx
2008-06-19 19:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-06-19 19:05:11 [Message] KS -> Main Room: This is Kaiser under a different login. Financial's appear to have bottomed
2008-06-19 19:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: based on?
2008-06-19 19:05:23 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: I looked for a short term bottom at spx 1330, and went long
2008-06-19 19:05:33 [Message] KS -> Main Room: Elliott Wave among others..
2008-06-19 19:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...you're talking the XLF?
2008-06-19 19:06:14 [Message] KS -> Main Room: No, banks. $BKX found support at 61.02 (today's low) which is a hair's distance from the Oct 2002 low of 60.87
2008-06-19 19:06:21 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I watched nasdaq rally today, but didn't get excited. Rally to sell into (NASDAQ)?
2008-06-19 19:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me take a gander
2008-06-19 19:06:41 [Message] KS -> Main Room: July 2002 panic low of 60.37 is also close by
2008-06-19 19:07:25 [Message] KS -> Main Room: $BKX has retraced the entire five wave impulsive pattern from the Oct 2002 lows and is due for a bounce intermediate term.
2008-06-19 19:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: quite a mess
2008-06-19 19:08:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: opinion is that we had a bounce today, relieved some downward pressure, and the selling will stop at double bottom....temporarily
2008-06-19 19:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're thinking that the beginning of 2008 was a triangle?
2008-06-19 19:08:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: don't think banks bottomed here
2008-06-19 19:09:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: think there is more to go than one would expect...an overreaction bottom which doesn't happen until you look at a quote of Citbank or Bank of America and can't believe it's at 15 dollars or 10
2008-06-19 19:10:14 [Message] KS -> Main Room: Yes, the triangle was fourth minor wave of Major A which got completed today (according to moi)
2008-06-19 19:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a B wave up?
2008-06-19 19:11:00 [Message] KS -> Main Room: It's a strong possibility in the Banks
2008-06-19 19:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..you do have RSI and the stochastic on your side
2008-06-19 19:11:14 [Message] KS -> Main Room: Plus the selling of the last few weeks in the banks had a "puke" feel to it.
2008-06-19 19:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both are trashed
2008-06-19 19:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good skill with the trade
2008-06-19 19:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...maybe a look around at the asset classes might be beneficial?
2008-06-19 19:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=t21888082474&r=6020
2008-06-19 19:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold seems to be hanging in there very nicely and continues to play out the triangle idea
2008-06-19 19:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern
2008-06-19 19:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott wise...anyone wish to put a label on it?
2008-06-19 19:14:50 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: 4
2008-06-19 19:14:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 2 counts, one bullish one bearish, not sure which it is
2008-06-19 19:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...agreed
2008-06-19 19:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, the one thing that helps the bullish case is the liquidity differential we've been talking about
2008-06-19 19:15:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: abc down to 4 complete, we did a wave one up and two down entering a 3 up now of 5
2008-06-19 19:15:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: or we a'd down and b'd up and we are doing a 12345 down of c to finish the correction
2008-06-19 19:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...but there didn't seem to be the kind of emotionalism with the last bottom that would create a third wave
2008-06-19 19:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about...?
2008-06-19 19:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "A" complete at the beginning of May - now in "C" of a larger "B"?
2008-06-19 19:16:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the third wave, is a subwave of 5
2008-06-19 19:17:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-19 19:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: objective... $950
2008-06-19 19:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would it be better if I marked up a chart?
2008-06-19 19:17:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ...um, "A" was down, wouldn't "C" be down as well?
2008-06-19 19:17:31 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: bad for the $ again?
2008-06-19 19:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe, but then again, the pattern of the dollar didn't look like it was bottoming a couple of weeks ago
2008-06-19 19:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: give me a moment
2008-06-19 19:18:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bearish count says we did an "A" down that finished in May, did a "B" up that finished later in May, and now we are 12345 down to a C
2008-06-19 19:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p21888082474&a=143251636&r=8769
2008-06-19 19:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now in (C) up of "B"
2008-06-19 19:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as I believed I've mentioned on my Gold count updates, this triangle should probably take us into the fall before breaking out
2008-06-19 19:21:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, what if the (a) and (b) already completed a little bit to the left of where you have it
2008-06-19 19:22:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where the (c) is where you have your (a)
2008-06-19 19:22:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where (c) = B
2008-06-19 19:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the structure, and more importantly, the psychology didn't quite fit
2008-06-19 19:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bigger picture - http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/elliottgold053008.gif
2008-06-19 19:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key to Elliott is the underlying psychology of the price structure
2008-06-19 19:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many were disappointed at the decline, but there wasn't enough panic to suggest an impulse
2008-06-19 19:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since the May lows, who has said anything about gold?
2008-06-19 19:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the dollar? yes
2008-06-19 19:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me see if I can quickly find the gold currency charts
2008-06-19 19:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a fun chart - it shows how interest rates affect the price of gold - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$IRX&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p11381263889&a=128805364&r=617
2008-06-19 19:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hope this all comes up - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$USD&p=W&st=2000-09-01&i=p55692443192&a=13559280&r=946
2008-06-19 19:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: should be about 5 charts on the last link
2008-06-19 19:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on to the commodities - longer term chart - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CRB&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p24112792970&a=127476492&r=128
2008-06-19 19:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gives you an idea of the cycles involved here, with the next cycle nesting due sometime around the summer of 2011
2008-06-19 19:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term chart of gold - look familiar? http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=1980-01-01&i=t54976457105&r=6767
2008-06-19 19:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by about a 4-6 month off set
2008-06-19 19:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bonds...longer term - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USB&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p54950019636&a=143253285&r=7359
2008-06-19 19:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: quite a bull market there and currently at support
2008-06-19 19:39:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looks like triple top on 30 year and its begging to break that line
2008-06-19 19:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be, but the 12 month RSI is hanging in there - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USB&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=t88981035791&a=143253285&r=8993
2008-06-19 19:40:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it went 16 years without hitting that line once and it hit is 3 times in one year
2008-06-19 19:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...eventually all good things tire...and then move the other way
2008-06-19 19:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be that this is the time in which this trend is broken
2008-06-19 19:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until it is broken...
2008-06-19 19:41:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what would be the implications?
2008-06-19 19:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: higher rates
2008-06-19 19:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seriously though - there is a chart in which I've posted in the past which shows that until the 10 year note gets above 7%, equities have continued to move higher
2008-06-19 19:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the good news, of course, that rising rates is that it usually means expansion - which is good for earnings
2008-06-19 19:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there has been some angst in this area over the last couple of weeks with the longer end of the yield curve moving up sharply
2008-06-19 19:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this sharp move has also given us some nice "oversold" readings
2008-06-19 19:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the close proximity of the longer term trend line, it's probably a good place as any to see some sort of bounce from these current levels
2008-06-19 19:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the RSI also made a higher high on the last price high seen
2008-06-19 19:44:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: price made a higher high as well right?
2008-06-19 19:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it would tend to make some sense that some sort of divergent top is needed before a break of such a formidable trend line
2008-06-19 19:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...confirmed
2008-06-19 19:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, technically, one could play the long side with you're downside limited
2008-06-19 19:45:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: can't a bounce occur on a back test, and with it being a rising line, the back test would create the divergence??
2008-06-19 19:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and your upside potential is around - what? 5% with the rate kicker?
2008-06-19 19:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure Dave...but you will be dealing with two different facets of analysis
2008-06-19 19:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the trend line is broken, it will more than likely snapback, but the divergence one would be looking for would be with a higher high in the price of the bond
2008-06-19 19:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can it break down?
2008-06-19 19:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: its been a long time in coming
2008-06-19 19:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the true consideration here is with productivity as we have had inflation now for many months now
2008-06-19 19:47:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a back test would be after a breakdown, and the test on a rising line would most likely occur at a higher price
2008-06-19 19:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not just an "all of a sudden" phenomenon
2008-06-19 19:48:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: kind of looks like that's what it did since 2000 low
2008-06-19 19:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you believe would be the odds of the pattern seeing new highs after a break of such a long term line?
2008-06-19 19:49:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 50/50
2008-06-19 19:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would take such a large shift in allocation to break this trend line that I would consider the odds of divergent top after the break to be less than 25%
2008-06-19 19:49:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i see that occur quite often on long term lines
2008-06-19 19:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on an asset class?
2008-06-19 19:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: granted...I understand your thinking, but we are dealing with the whole pie here as it were
2008-06-19 19:49:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on anything that can be charted based on human behavior
2008-06-19 19:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: granted...but how many times have you seen a trend line break only to see new price highs or lows after such a break?
2008-06-19 19:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I haven't seen many
2008-06-19 19:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but maybe I'm looking in the wrong place
2008-06-19 19:51:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sometimes it depends on the degree of the slope
2008-06-19 19:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: general allocation models suggest a portfolio of all the asset classes
2008-06-19 19:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can a trend line be a slope?
2008-06-19 19:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's "just a line"
2008-06-19 19:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: regardless...right now, bonds are at longer term support
2008-06-19 19:52:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: same line can be drawn on log chart of Dow or S&P from same year
2008-06-19 19:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we break below the line drawn on the chart, then a switch in allocation is indicated
2008-06-19 19:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good point on the log - let's see...
2008-06-19 19:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...this is the bond chart - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USB&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p26110751182&a=143253285&r=1323
2008-06-19 19:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another thing to keep in mind is that each asset class has its own inherent personality
2008-06-19 19:55:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: did you look at sp500 and dow from same year on log chart? its the same line as your linear 30 year bond chart
2008-06-19 19:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bonds, being the most conservative investment (by most accounts), is slow and sure because of this
2008-06-19 19:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can...one moment
2008-06-19 19:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p86134124961&a=124983604&r=9985
2008-06-19 19:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: log form, and you can see Dave's reference to the trendline break and snapback
2008-06-19 19:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which may be important
2008-06-19 19:57:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looks broken, yep
2008-06-19 19:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but sometimes context is important
2008-06-19 19:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - if the FED was raising interest rates, thereby cutting off the supply of liquidity, this chart would be sending a negative signal
2008-06-19 19:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but since stocks are traded more on a emotional level than bonds there tends to be times of "overthrow" in this relationship
2008-06-19 19:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's there...it does need to be respected for what it may suggest
2008-06-19 19:59:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, on your 30 year log chart, with trend line from 1984 low to 2004 low, can one consider that it already broke and back tested as well?
2008-06-19 20:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it makes one wonder what this same chart looks on an arithmetic scale
2008-06-19 20:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX?
2008-06-19 20:00:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: no the 30 bond
2008-06-19 20:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: checking
2008-06-19 20:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would have to re do the chart - one sec
2008-06-19 20:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I will say before I do
2008-06-19 20:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at log scale is not always the best way to approach chart analysis
2008-06-19 20:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: true, it has it's function the longer the time frame
2008-06-19 20:02:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for the record, i hate log charts and never use them unless its for long than 20 years
2008-06-19 20:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it kind of gives a false impression because at the beginning you will always tend to get higher percentage moves
2008-06-19 20:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed...but they have their function
2008-06-19 20:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to draw a true trend line from 1984
2008-06-19 20:03:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: k
2008-06-19 20:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: basically because it becomes subjective
2008-06-19 20:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p63321220151&a=124983604&r=200
2008-06-19 20:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the main rub for the bears - you have three fan formation lines still controlling the longer term pattern
2008-06-19 20:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and though a decline to the blue line would be "bearish", longer term, it would only be corrective
2008-06-19 20:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when dealing with trend lines, what we usually see in strong up (or down) trend's are three angles of ascent (or descent)
2008-06-19 20:06:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that is a great chart - fits psychology as well, you hit that blue line, not a bull left in town, only to watch it fly
2008-06-19 20:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and this can happen - especially with the level of fear we already have
2008-06-19 20:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...
2008-06-19 20:07:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bus travels fast with nobody on board
2008-06-19 20:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the FED was tightening here, the odds of us hitting the blue line would be rather high
2008-06-19 20:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but current liquidity levels are holding things up
2008-06-19 20:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have seen this in particular in the last two weeks
2008-06-19 20:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the plan last Tuesday was to look for a near term decline and then a chop - yesterday and today would fit that bill
2008-06-19 20:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this regard, once again, even the bears continue to find it difficult to mount a good offense
2008-06-19 20:09:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: $rut underperformed today, lack of liquidity? you mention that Jan cuts would take 6 months, wouldn't that be until mid July?
2008-06-19 20:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the expectation was that the January cuts would hit in May, and it does seem to be with us right now
2008-06-19 20:09:56 [Message] doc -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SML:$OEX&p=D&st=1995-01-01&id=p08194287405
2008-06-19 20:10:45 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I think small caps are out performing right now since the beginning of this year
2008-06-19 20:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always remember that liquidity is there for [u]available[/u] investment - it doesn't mean that it WILL invest
2008-06-19 20:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any excesses are first used to firm up the weak areas of a bridge
2008-06-19 20:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case, we continue to hear about problems with some of the larger institutions, and this is taking away from any investment in equities
2008-06-19 20:11:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like Financials like Citi raising 20 billion?
2008-06-19 20:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yep or Lehman
2008-06-19 20:12:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: Goldman said 120 billion already raised and another 60 billion to go
2008-06-19 20:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the idea behind the Federal Reserve is as a liquidity stabilizer...not a lender
2008-06-19 20:12:31 [Message] doc -> Main Room: So is the out performance of small caps speculative? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SML:$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p81706048267
2008-06-19 20:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: your opinion Doc?
2008-06-19 20:13:01 [Message] doc -> Main Room: not sure
2008-06-19 20:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about this idea?
2008-06-19 20:13:13 [Message] doc -> Main Room: maybe they aren't exposed to sub prime and are benefitting from the low rates
2008-06-19 20:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the area in which we've seen a higher sell off ratio has been with what kind of stocks?
2008-06-19 20:13:46 [Message] doc -> Main Room: large cap financial
2008-06-19 20:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK
2008-06-19 20:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we take that as a guide, wouldn't this same money be raised to "help out" while the balance not needed still moves into more repsonse areas to such stimulus - like the small caps?
2008-06-19 20:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is really a fundamental question than anything else, but there is still the same amount of money out there
2008-06-19 20:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: HOW it's being allocated is the question
2008-06-19 20:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the internals suggest that though the high caps - led by the financials - have been soft of late
2008-06-19 20:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those issues that fully depend on the cost of money continue to see inflows
2008-06-19 20:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small and mid caps fully depend on lower costs of funds - not so much with the high caps as they already have a established product line
2008-06-19 20:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it's a fairly good bet that these issues will be around, as they have in the past, after all is said and done
2008-06-19 20:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile, money always continues to look for perceived "undervaluation"
2008-06-19 20:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...we reviewed each asset class - gold, commodities, debt, and equities
2008-06-19 20:18:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they do rely on lower cost of funds, one could argue that banks are not lending those very same companies any money b/c of the risk
2008-06-19 20:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...loan rates are low for those who do have stability - lending doesn't altogether stop
2008-06-19 20:19:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: banks are holding back lending to even strong borrowers
2008-06-19 20:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can get some great rates right now for my business, for example
2008-06-19 20:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I get calls every day
2008-06-19 20:19:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that's what friends in the banking business are telling me
2008-06-19 20:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...you can come over then and answer their phone calls to me
2008-06-19 20:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I'm not even including the bank checks I get daily in the mail
2008-06-19 20:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every time I open a credit card statement - "zero percent for 6 months"!
2008-06-19 20:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although, unlike earlier in the decade, there are transaction fees this time around where there wasn't back then
2008-06-19 20:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if I don't want the 6 months at zero, I get either 2 or 3% for the life of the cash advance
2008-06-19 20:21:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i was going to say consumer credit offers are coming but, I have noticed the limits used to be "up to 50,000" now they say "up to 7,000"
2008-06-19 20:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I guess it all depends on the section of the country...and the lender - got a call today from a company that wanted to lend out amounts of $100,000 to $1,000,000 for business inventories and/or expansions
2008-06-19 20:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not everyone is going bankrupt, nor is everyone late on their mortgages...we only hear about the small percentage of these same folks, and then it's blown up to make it feel like the sky is falling
2008-06-19 20:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the same thing happened in the 80's with the S&L's though we tend to remember things with a short term memory
2008-06-19 20:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any who...it is what it is
2008-06-19 20:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term, all four of the asset classes have enjoyed a large amount of liquidity since the mid 1990's, and it's always important to keep a perspective on this
2008-06-19 20:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term...it's always accentuated - short term...there are times in which we correct excesses - intermediate term...these are the times which we feel the most emotional pressure as we tend to forget the past...it's only the present that "matters"
2008-06-19 20:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and, of course, what we can't control, there will always be a fear factor to deal with
2008-06-19 20:28:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you mention on Tuesday that 200 pts wasn't going to cut it, do the internals suggest short term bottom or more to go
2008-06-19 20:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it's still a mixed picture
2008-06-19 20:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we were looking for to happen was to see the market attempt to create some sort of divergent bottom
2008-06-19 20:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...the NYA did not move to lower lows yesterday, in fact, the NYA has been fairly stong of late
2008-06-19 20:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: credit that to liquidity - that being because the NYA is the broadest barometer available to us
2008-06-19 20:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the public uses as a proxy, the Dow, is only 30 stocks (although the components do attempt to give us feel of the all sectors that have a direct relationship to the current economic makeup)
2008-06-19 20:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so being...the Dow has a way of teasing the public on what it should be doing - how they should be feeling
2008-06-19 20:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's going to be more and more difficult in the future
2008-06-19 20:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that specialists on the floor of the NYSE are going to have their legs cut off with the new rules being put into place (see the post I made on the subject) and this is going to change things in a big way
2008-06-19 20:34:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: about time
2008-06-19 20:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know if it will be good or bad...but it will change the way I, for one, will have to trade the market
2008-06-19 20:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...maybe it won't change anything...
2008-06-19 20:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's important to note how all of the major indexes trade on a given day
2008-06-19 20:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example...I believe that yesterday, with the Dow down 100 points intraday, while the NYA was actually up
2008-06-19 20:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and unless you have everything moving in lock step, the trading day is going to be choppy
2008-06-19 20:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like a turning the handle on a Model T - the engine turns over, sputters a bit, and then dies
2008-06-19 20:36:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: today dow was up and nya was down
2008-06-19 20:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's another good example
2008-06-19 20:37:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: today ugly internals and nice index moves
2008-06-19 20:37:20 [Message] doc -> Main Room: The CVIs and STVOs are all basically back to zero and the VTOs are oversold. All the Open 10's are in sync around 1.02 to 1.04.
2008-06-19 20:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so with the Dow (30) up, and the NYA (3000) down, which way do you believe the market is actually heading near term?
2008-06-19 20:37:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: down
2008-06-19 20:38:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: down....
2008-06-19 20:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be a reasonable guess
2008-06-19 20:38:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 11,700
2008-06-19 20:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...numbers are unimportant, only direction counts
2008-06-19 20:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes being fixated on "a" number can get you in trading trouble
2008-06-19 20:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I've learned over the years is that all you want to do is catch a ride, and then unload when the energy to keep it moving forward is waning
2008-06-19 20:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone ever surf?
2008-06-19 20:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some idea
2008-06-19 20:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: numbers are nice...and there are many ways to come up with a target
2008-06-19 20:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but to think that you're going to get exactly what you "want" tends to be unrealistic
2008-06-19 20:40:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just the number that fits the puzzle, not focusing on the number, the number is the last step after all work is done
2008-06-19 20:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or it could be the point in which things will start to accelerate
2008-06-19 20:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only the flow of money will give you this kind of heads up
2008-06-19 20:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't get me wrong, I use price targets as well, but I don't dwell on them
2008-06-19 20:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's part of being a technical trader - without some sort of target, you lose the substance of the analysis
2008-06-19 20:42:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, can't dwell, use chart patterns to measure distance, wave count to measure speed (and partly distance) as well as many other things
2008-06-19 20:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if the energy needed to push you to these same targets starts to lose its forward motion, it's probably better to close the trade than to try to squeeze out every little point towards this same price target
2008-06-19 20:43:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: get "a number" from that, on the way there look at volume for capitulation, divergences, etc...
2008-06-19 20:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I agree
2008-06-19 20:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not saying it doesn't have merit
2008-06-19 20:44:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the number can change daily, pending what the analysis says
2008-06-19 20:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ....yes, it surely can
2008-06-19 20:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you're consistent, you pretty much come out OK
2008-06-19 20:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me...all I want is for my money to constantly working for me...I don't want to put effort into it
2008-06-19 20:45:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you were talking about ledges all over on Tuesday, have they done what they were supposed to or still looking like more to go??
2008-06-19 20:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (nice opening to move on to DP...and so I shall)
2008-06-19 20:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but before I do...here's the US Dollar - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p21888082474&a=143260917&r=8580
2008-06-19 20:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can see the choppiness of the pattern since the lows
2008-06-19 20:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks like it's going to have more problems ahead in spite of the so called pressure to rise from Washington of late
2008-06-19 20:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after moving lower on Wednesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today
2008-06-19 20:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now we have a bottom above a bottom
2008-06-19 20:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, as mentioned earlier, the price pattern of the NYA did not move to lower lows as yet, and so we should expect another round of selling to hit the market near term
2008-06-19 20:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the move lower yesterday gave us a gap lower on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM out of it's ledge pattern to the downside which was the technical expectation
2008-06-19 20:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we now have a reading of -158 with the rising bottoms line coming in at around the -200 level
2008-06-19 20:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: leaving us just enough room to possibly making a lower MCO low than yesterday, and still being able to hold both MCO divergence and the MCSUM trend line
2008-06-19 20:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, the bears seem to be running out of ammo...although one more ambush would probably fail to provide a gain towards this goal line
2008-06-19 20:52:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: end of quarter?
2008-06-19 20:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...quadruple witch started at the close today and ends at the close tomorrow (look for huge volume at the open tomorrow)
2008-06-19 20:53:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: up or down? lol
2008-06-19 20:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doesn't matter...
2008-06-19 20:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: futures contracts expired...and come back to market
2008-06-19 20:54:26 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: does to me, lol
2008-06-19 20:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...both bulls and bears might be disappointed, but a downside move is more probable
2008-06-19 20:54:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sounds like lew has some options expiring tomorrow?
2008-06-19 20:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gee, I hope not
2008-06-19 20:55:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i didn't say worthless, just said they expire, could be for tons of money
2008-06-19 20:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only options that expire tomorrow are the worthless ones
2008-06-19 20:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, you can see that after a large posting to the downside yesterday, there wasn't any follow through to this event...yet
2008-06-19 20:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also had a small bounce higher on the composite NYSE breadth MCO today, but not as robust as that of the CO
2008-06-19 20:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that the finanicals remain under pressure, and if this is the case, it would probably be better served to wait to move into this sector until we start seeing some leadership in the composite data over the commons
2008-06-19 20:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the more we have moving in one direction, in a broader sense, the healthier the price structure in this same direction - up or down, it doesn't matter
2008-06-19 21:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM now has a reading of -133 which is now only 25 data points from catching up with the commons
2008-06-19 21:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as was mentioned last week, the narrowing gap between the two suggests that we continue to see heavier selling pressure with the interest rate sensitives in the overall index
2008-06-19 21:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the 10 year now at - what? 4.25%?
2008-06-19 21:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the pressure continues
2008-06-19 21:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however...has anyone been noticing the Utilities of late?
2008-06-19 21:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$UTIL&p=D&st=2007-08-01&i=p10981889453&r=7041
2008-06-19 21:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: defensive? sure
2008-06-19 21:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the price structure holding in here, this would be another indication that the longer end of the yield curve might be bottoming right now
2008-06-19 21:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also notice the increasing volume on the UTIL today
2008-06-19 21:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be a nice long set up here - maybe a buy stop just above 530 (which would be just above 42 on the XLU)
2008-06-19 21:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a move above this level would gives us the expectation of a challenge of the all time highs
2008-06-19 21:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved higher today - and we have an outside range day AND closed Wednesday's gap in the process
2008-06-19 21:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2480 looks to be an important area, but with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM at -348, it doesn't look like higher price highs for this sequence is indicated right now
2008-06-19 21:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless...we're in the midst of a triangle
2008-06-19 21:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO did indeed gap lower below its zero line yesterday, but we didn't exactly get the desired bearish results
2008-06-19 21:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now we've moved above this same range (and this comes after a MCO reading of -68)
2008-06-19 21:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just missed our MCO divergence on the SPX yesterday
2008-06-19 21:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...the bears are having a tough time here
2008-06-19 21:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the SPX breadth MCSUM is now a day or two away from its rising bottoms line
2008-06-19 21:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...if I didn't know any better...I would say that the bears are close to being washed out here
2008-06-19 21:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we now have potential bull divergence on the OEX with bottoms above bottoms controlling the OEX breadth MCO pattern
2008-06-19 21:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we will need to see something robust back above the zero line on the OEX breadth MCO before a turn to higher would indicated on the MCSUM
2008-06-19 21:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's also worth noting that the OEX breadth MCO has now been below its zero line now for 4 weeks
2008-06-19 21:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...the bears are now running out of time
2008-06-19 21:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow breadth MCO made a lower low in the its MCO yesterday...so no divergence there...only a reset
2008-06-19 21:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also indicate that a challenge is still yet to be seen with the March lows
2008-06-19 21:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far...we're out of sync again, and if we're out of sync, the best we can hopeful is short term chop
2008-06-19 21:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCO also moved higher today, and the MID MCO components are just under their zero lines now
2008-06-19 21:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if there is bullish resolution here, the components are leading in this direction which is a plus
2008-06-19 21:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...we're sooooo choppy - how does one trade this garbage??
2008-06-19 21:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCO is back above its zero line, but the components are not
2008-06-19 21:19:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wait for March retest and volume and then go long
2008-06-19 21:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...corrective activity
2008-06-19 21:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a good plan...but just how long are you willing to wait until that objective is met?
2008-06-19 21:20:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: my blue print says within a week or so
2008-06-19 21:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the 4th of July coming on a Friday, you might only have 7 trading days left before everyone leaves town
2008-06-19 21:20:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: should retest before July 4 - not far away on dow, further on nas and sp500
2008-06-19 21:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from your lips...
2008-06-19 21:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing that I can tell you is that it's more than likely going to frustrate
2008-06-19 21:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one day up
2008-06-19 21:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one day down
2008-06-19 21:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday swings abound
2008-06-19 21:22:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: blue print says chop with downward bias for a week then nice trade opp to upside
2008-06-19 21:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which probably means bottom and top pickers are ruling the roost
2008-06-19 21:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a small blip up on the TM breadth MCO which could be the mark to watch for over the next week or so
2008-06-19 21:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example...a lower MCO low by Monday, and this same blip will act as near term resistance
2008-06-19 21:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the volume side of things (something in which we haven't really looked at of late)
2008-06-19 21:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as you move through the charts you will see that the NYSE related index MCSUM's are pretty much "oversold" here
2008-06-19 21:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which will make it difficult for the bears to create a trend
2008-06-19 21:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything, there might be a final hurrah...and that might be it for a month or so
2008-06-19 21:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's impressive are the NASDAQ, NDX, MID, and SML volume MCSUM's which all remain above their zero lines
2008-06-19 21:27:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: with mcsums oversold on nyse, can one up day remove oversold conditions and another down day put them back to oversold??
2008-06-19 21:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is why these indices remain as buoyant as they are
2008-06-19 21:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the answers are no and no
2008-06-19 21:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM's are intermediate term indicators - that of 6 weeks or more
2008-06-19 21:27:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: got it
2008-06-19 21:28:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so oversold can stay oversold for a bit and vice versa
2008-06-19 21:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that the MCSUM measures the difference in distance between one EMA (the 19 day) and another (39 day)
2008-06-19 21:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when EMA's become to extended, they will tend to snapback
2008-06-19 21:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the way they snapback is based on the raw data that it's measuring
2008-06-19 21:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means, in order for them to move back towards each other, the A/D line must move in this same snapback direction
2008-06-19 21:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the wider the difference, the longer the time it takes to "kiss" - or go to zero
2008-06-19 21:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like a price chart, with the same overall results
2008-06-19 21:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO measures how fast these two EMA's are moving to or away from each other
2008-06-19 21:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the basic use of these indicators
2008-06-19 21:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are basically neutral
2008-06-19 21:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are as well
2008-06-19 21:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the VTO's, though, are getting closer to "oversold"
2008-06-19 21:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is the what the bulls have been waiting for
2008-06-19 21:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we can get another day or two of selling, this should then give us "oversold" VTO readings, and a short term bottom is within a day or two of forming
2008-06-19 21:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...the bears are running out of time now
2008-06-19 21:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if you're short...don't be a hero
2008-06-19 21:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would stay away from the OEX and Dow...they look to have limited downside momentum now
2008-06-19 21:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which doesn't mean they wouldn't have a one day thump
2008-06-19 21:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like anything else technical
2008-06-19 21:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can measure the rate of selling pressure
2008-06-19 21:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and know that it can't sustain this rate for very long
2008-06-19 21:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this certainly doesn't mean that the chart pattern can't continue to move in this same direction either
2008-06-19 21:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .80
2008-06-19 21:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.02
2008-06-19 21:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to move lower when a floor is under us
2008-06-19 21:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .50
2008-06-19 21:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice buying today...could be short covering
2008-06-19 21:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.04
2008-06-19 21:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .55
2008-06-19 21:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.03
2008-06-19 21:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the Open 10's are suggesting we're near a bottom
2008-06-19 21:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how important of one is yet to be determined
2008-06-19 21:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we can get the VTO's "oversold"
2008-06-19 21:37:05 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: not important at all IMO
2008-06-19 21:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and get the MCO's in better sync...
2008-06-19 21:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...but I'm sure picking a good time to go on vacation!
2008-06-19 21:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-06-19 21:38:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: uso?
2008-06-19 21:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hope I've given a good overall review and that it might help you all in your own work
2008-06-19 21:38:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 9 days of consolidation, unheard of in its history? thoughts ?
2008-06-19 21:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: USO?
2008-06-19 21:38:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-19 21:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crude looks to be topping
2008-06-19 21:39:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: topping wave 3 or a 5?
2008-06-19 21:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're right on time...and the emotion is right
2008-06-19 21:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term...probably a 3
2008-06-19 21:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold is in wave 4
2008-06-19 21:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: time for oil's wave 4
2008-06-19 21:39:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you think we see a blow off? or that price hit its high already?
2008-06-19 21:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't rule out one more bit of fireworks
2008-06-19 21:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the off-set suggests sometime in July
2008-06-19 21:40:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: going to be big whichever way - 7 pt range for 9 days
2008-06-19 21:40:25 [Message] locus -> Main Room: oil reminds me odf ndx in oct '07
2008-06-19 21:40:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: equals huge move
2008-06-19 21:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would fit
2008-06-19 21:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful of a false start
2008-06-19 21:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would use golds peak in March as a guide
2008-06-19 21:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember the highs?
2008-06-19 21:41:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-19 21:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we opened strongly higher, and faded into the close?
2008-06-19 21:41:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: crude looks like huge move is imminent
2008-06-19 21:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if I had to time this, I would say right after the July 4th holiday
2008-06-19 21:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-06-19 21:41:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Next chat?
2008-06-19 21:41:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was opposite 2 days before that, the 9 days consolidation has shown all types, gap up sell off, gap down rally
2008-06-19 21:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good question TM
2008-06-19 21:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm..how about 8/5?
2008-06-19 21:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have a couple of projects in July
2008-06-19 21:43:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: that works
2008-06-19 21:43:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: man, thats an eternity lol
2008-06-19 21:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for now, let's say 8/5, but the chat room will be open during my absence and transcripts posted
2008-06-19 21:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I need a rest
2008-06-19 21:43:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks and have a good vacation!!
2008-06-19 21:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I need to stop looking at the market for a while
2008-06-19 21:43:33 [Message] kemo -> Main Room: Have a great vacation!!!
2008-06-19 21:43:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: have a great vacation
2008-06-19 21:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...thanks to all for the wishes
2008-06-19 21:43:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thanks for your work
2008-06-19 21:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great holiday and month of July
2008-06-19 21:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and make some money!!!
2008-06-19 21:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: talk to you all in August
2008-06-19 21:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-06-19 21:44:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: are you others going to show up here?
2008-06-19 21:44:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Above all......make some money to all
2008-06-19 21:44:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on tues and thurs nights?
2008-06-19 21:44:59 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I will on vacation too, but I will try to show up sometimes
2008-06-19 21:45:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I would be up for it......
2008-06-19 21:45:20 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: sounds good
2008-06-19 21:45:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cool trademark, see ya here on tues and thurs nights
2008-06-19 21:45:30 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: lets try next tuesday
2008-06-19 21:45:38 [Message] kemo -> Main Room: Will check in some - can someone attempt to continue?
2008-06-19 21:45:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: trademark is the DISCIPLE
2008-06-19 21:45:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: OK, we will see how it goes
2008-06-19 21:46:05 [Message] kemo -> Main Room: Trademark it is
2008-06-19 21:46:05 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: cool
2008-06-19 21:46:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: trademark is new fib for a month or so
2008-06-19 21:46:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: big shoes to fill, hope you are up for it
2008-06-19 21:46:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will be on some Vacation in July also, hopefully for part the time
2008-06-19 21:46:56 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: you did a nice job last attempt, Trade!
2008-06-19 21:47:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Ya, since I am so experienced from a couple weeks ago
2008-06-19 21:47:09 [Message] kemo -> Main Room: Maybe a big move is due
2008-06-19 21:47:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for real, he did, no vacation for trademark until fib returns
2008-06-19 21:47:20 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-19 21:47:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: See you all Tuesday
2008-06-19 21:47:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok............fib's replacement is now trademark, it's official till august 5
2008-06-19 21:47:51 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: cool, cya then
2008-06-19 21:47:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thanks trademark for volunteering
2008-06-19 21:48:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: right
2008-06-19 21:48:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: very nice of you to offer
2008-06-19 21:48:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You guys will get to help too
2008-06-19 21:49:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: GN



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