All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,495
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-06-17 19:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-06-17 19:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-06-17 19:00:26 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Hi Dave
2008-06-17 19:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...since this will be the last week of chats for awhile, is there anything in particular you wish to go over?
2008-06-17 19:02:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DP charts would be just fine
2008-06-17 19:02:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: but I always say that
2008-06-17 19:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, you do...
2008-06-17 19:02:55 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: looked like some key outside bearish reversals roday
2008-06-17 19:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: drop the word "key" please
2008-06-17 19:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: important? OK...
2008-06-17 19:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "Key" events are rare events
2008-06-17 19:03:52 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: I forget, not key because?
2008-06-17 19:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because the word "key" is more associated to something definitive
2008-06-17 19:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a "Key Reversal" is more important than something that is just the market moving back and forth
2008-06-17 19:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...I guess depending on the trading time frame, we can all have our own definition of what is "key" and what is not
2008-06-17 19:05:43 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lol, true
2008-06-17 19:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I must start off by again apologizing in my due diligence of late
2008-06-17 19:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I continue to be very busy here, and adding the preparation of my upcoming holiday, there just doesn't seem to be enough hours in the day
2008-06-17 19:07:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Number of hours in day not really your fault
2008-06-17 19:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things that I didn't get to over the weekend was the divergences between the composite NYAD line and that of the ratio adjusted data
2008-06-17 19:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as you may have noticed, the composite remained in a "corrective bullish configuration"
2008-06-17 19:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the ratio adjusted NYAD line was in a bearish configuration as of last Friday
2008-06-17 19:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, both the ratio adjusted and the composite lines continue to show a very tight EMA configurations
2008-06-17 19:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning that NOTHING has changed as to a probable trend - neither up nor down
2008-06-17 19:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other thing...hey...I just realized...I had the RA chart loaded over the weekend - let me give you the link and you can see it for yourselves
2008-06-17 19:09:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Do you mean different between composite and common only? Don't get what difference is?
2008-06-17 19:10:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: maybe the chart will help
2008-06-17 19:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/nyra061308.gif
2008-06-17 19:10:13 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: the tight ema's signal a large move coming-no?
2008-06-17 19:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...something akin to a springboard
2008-06-17 19:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which has been the forecast now for about the last 3 weeks
2008-06-17 19:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once these EMA's start to "unwind", there should be a multi month trend
2008-06-17 19:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that we're dealing with all three EMA's right now
2008-06-17 19:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the shorter term EMA's were tight, this only suggests a multi week trend
2008-06-17 19:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at the chart, you can see how this has occurred over the last 6 months or so
2008-06-17 19:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where when the 19 day and 39 day EMA's released their tension, a multi week trend (of sorts) occurred
2008-06-17 19:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but now that we're dealing with the 200 day EMA into the mix, the longer the eventual trend once this congestion period is finally behind us
2008-06-17 19:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bears...they have been able to hold the A/D line right at the declining tops line
2008-06-17 19:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls...we bounced right off the 1959 support line last week
2008-06-17 19:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: between the two, and until one of these areas of support or resistance are violated, we will not be able to trend
2008-06-17 19:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we will chop
2008-06-17 19:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we will see days of volatility at times, and times in which no movement will occur over the course of a trading day
2008-06-17 19:15:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What is 1959? Is that a year? why is it important?
2008-06-17 19:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words, the market is moving more in relation to the emotion being created than anything more to do in what allows price patterns to move in one direction or the other
2008-06-17 19:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 1959 line was the highest level ever recorded on the NYAD line on a ratio adjusted basis
2008-06-17 19:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything above it was/is all time highs
2008-06-17 19:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this A/D data component was the last, and the most important level of resistance, to the longer term health of the market
2008-06-17 19:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get the composite so you can kind of compare
2008-06-17 19:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't have my Excel charts here, so this will have to do - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=1990-01-01&i=t14046853949&r=9343
2008-06-17 19:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see the peak in January of 2004?
2008-06-17 19:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that was the comparable breakout point of the 1959 highs
2008-06-17 19:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why when taking a set number of 1000 stocks over a long period of time it tends to give one a consistency that's worth working with in this area of analysis
2008-06-17 19:20:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: my chart only goes to 2005
2008-06-17 19:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have SC?
2008-06-17 19:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do you have a charting program of any kind?
2008-06-17 19:21:04 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=2763771
2008-06-17 19:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here...let me try this for those who don't have access to SC
2008-06-17 19:21:27 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: just posted 1959 line
2008-06-17 19:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/ltnyad061708.png
2008-06-17 19:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see when the FED started to raise interest rates in 2004?
2008-06-17 19:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that was the breakout and snapback of this same 1959 line on the composite
2008-06-17 19:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: quite a difference between this and the ratio adjusted (and thanks mojave)
2008-06-17 19:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....as I've been suggesting with the ratio adjusted posts - "Stand at the ready, but pick your side carefully, and only when confirmed."
2008-06-17 19:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far...no real confirmation has occurred
2008-06-17 19:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with that said...let me get to DP before we lose any more precious time
2008-06-17 19:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after spiking to new lows last week, the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now given us our obligatory snapback to the zero line yesterday, and eased off from this same line of neutrality today
2008-06-17 19:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this last couple of days return to the MCO zero line has created what could be called a ledge pattern on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-06-17 19:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and ledges are made to "fall off of"
2008-06-17 19:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the rising bottoms line created on the MCSUM of January and March just below us, an important test is now coming up for the longer term condition of the market itself
2008-06-17 19:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a break of this line of support should be accompanied by a hard down day as does tend to happen on breaks of trend lines
2008-06-17 19:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "key" to this pattern though remains with the divergent lows of March
2008-06-17 19:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until this level is broken, the best thing that could happen here for the bullish camp is that another, and still stronger, divergent low might be in the offering
2008-06-17 19:30:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Are you talking MCO or MCSUM?
2008-06-17 19:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem though, as a chartist, is the recent rounding top formation of the NYA itself
2008-06-17 19:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this last statement...the divergent statement - the MCSUM
2008-06-17 19:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: along with the price pattern having problems remaining above its 200 day EMA in the process
2008-06-17 19:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...something for both the bulls and bears here longer term, but short term, as has been the case now since the 6/6 sell off, the bears remain in control of the action
2008-06-17 19:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also of note during this snapback in the MCO, is that the components we're basically moving in lock step with the MCO itself
2008-06-17 19:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and BOTH components found resistance, simultaneously, at their zero lines as well
2008-06-17 19:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the pressure is still on
2008-06-17 19:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on to the composite NYSE breadth MCO, unlike the CO, this broader basket of stocks were not able to reach its zero line
2008-06-17 19:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...that the interest rate sensitive issues continue to have a tough go of it of late
2008-06-17 19:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can also see this in the Bond CEF A/D line this past weekend
2008-06-17 19:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where we finally saw some pullback of this data
2008-06-17 19:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however...this same A/D line remains structurally in good shape
2008-06-17 19:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like a pause, if anything else
2008-06-17 19:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of course, this can change in the next week or so
2008-06-17 19:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's unlikely to do so based on several technical considerations in which we'll try to review by Thursday's chat session
2008-06-17 19:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, with both the CO and composite NYSE breadth MCSUM's below their respective zero lines now, the bears have intermediate term control of the action as well
2008-06-17 19:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the main question remaining...can they build on this or not?
2008-06-17 19:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if not...and in the same proverbial breath...what has been done over the last couple of weeks now corrects much of the excesses of the prior trend up from the March lows
2008-06-17 19:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the RA NYAD line finding initial support at the 1959 line, the bears need to be very careful here in not getting snagged into a trap
2008-06-17 19:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example...so far, we've had this "drip, drip" type trading style over the last week
2008-06-17 19:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where a hard down here might be all that would be needed to cleanse the system of the remaining "fence sitters"
2008-06-17 19:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as with the bull case two weeks ago, it's very important for the bears to also show good follow through action to get things moving in their direction
2008-06-17 19:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping in mind that it's far easier for the bear side to accomplish this because of the default of the market itself...that being in bear mode
2008-06-17 19:42:13 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: what about relative strength of small caps, mid caps and NASDAQ? Is it a positive development?
2008-06-17 19:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how do you read it?
2008-06-17 19:42:38 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Usually I would say positive
2008-06-17 19:42:40 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: but internals are not that bullish
2008-06-17 19:43:07 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: hard to say this time
2008-06-17 19:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..we do know that those boats in the back of the marina are always hard pressed to see enough "liquidity" to raise them higher
2008-06-17 19:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time
2008-06-17 19:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be that this was only the first wave from the levels generated by the FED's decision to slam down short term rates back in January
2008-06-17 19:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there still seems, however, to be several "eddy's" out there that are using this same "wave" for their preferred usage
2008-06-17 19:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: question for you or the group
2008-06-17 19:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is the likelihood of the FED raising rates over the next 6 months?
2008-06-17 19:46:04 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: 50/50
2008-06-17 19:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any others?
2008-06-17 19:46:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: think they will raise after summer
2008-06-17 19:46:33 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: I think we see .25
2008-06-17 19:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going into an national election?
2008-06-17 19:46:53 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I say no raise
2008-06-17 19:46:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: y
2008-06-17 19:46:58 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: FF futures say 50/50
2008-06-17 19:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...maybe
2008-06-17 19:47:29 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: 50/50 means 'no idea'?
2008-06-17 19:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then again, the FF futures were looking for 1 1/2% during this latest string of cuts as well
2008-06-17 19:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-17 19:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-06-17 19:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neutral
2008-06-17 19:47:46 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: right
2008-06-17 19:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: none of us can say for sure
2008-06-17 19:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however
2008-06-17 19:48:08 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Exactly Mojave, no idea
2008-06-17 19:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's very important here is the difference between Fed Funds and the 2 year note
2008-06-17 19:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the spread between these two vehicles is what stimulates money
2008-06-17 19:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you see this taking place in many of the assets
2008-06-17 19:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with gold being the primary beneficiary
2008-06-17 19:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but later on, the other classes will also continue to be buoyed by this same stimulus, although, at different times
2008-06-17 19:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...being that the small caps continue to show buoyancy here
2008-06-17 19:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know that liquidity is ample enough to keep things from falling apart
2008-06-17 19:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so any mention of a crash just isn't going to happen
2008-06-17 19:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's no vacuum
2008-06-17 19:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything is fluid
2008-06-17 19:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the MCSUM's from the tops in May as another example
2008-06-17 19:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are the postings clean to the downside or choppy?
2008-06-17 19:52:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: fairly clean
2008-06-17 19:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: choppy behavior is our indication that though the directional flow of money is understood, it's not fully committed
2008-06-17 19:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look again
2008-06-17 19:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many hesitation points do you see from the top in May?
2008-06-17 19:53:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 2 at most
2008-06-17 19:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which MCSUM are you looking at?
2008-06-17 19:53:36 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: nas and sm really choppy, oex clean...
2008-06-17 19:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CO tells one story...the composite another
2008-06-17 19:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they all differ in their structures, don't they?
2008-06-17 19:53:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NYSE ratio adjusted
2008-06-17 19:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...then we can call the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM clean
2008-06-17 19:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one hesitation point, but fairly constant to the downside there
2008-06-17 19:54:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: agree, co choppy
2008-06-17 19:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but looking at the CO, and comparing with the composite, here again one can make the assumption that its been those issues that are more interest rate sensitive that have been having a tough go of it over the last week or so
2008-06-17 19:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the commons would only stay "afloat" if there was ample (liquidity) water to hold them up
2008-06-17 19:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking back to the period between March and May, you can see here again which issues were leading the market higher during this same time period
2008-06-17 19:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the CO's were choppy...the sensitives were not
2008-06-17 19:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...we remain in a trading range
2008-06-17 19:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we see all of the MCSUM's moving in unison with each other here, the expectation of any kind of price trend development will be rated accordingly
2008-06-17 19:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trends can only develop if all of the rods in the engine are timed appropriately
2008-06-17 19:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still don't see this...and this is why it's been hard to trade the intermediate term of late
2008-06-17 19:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bad news in the morning presents a higher close
2008-06-17 19:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good news in the morning gives us a lower close
2008-06-17 20:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is how markets "churn"
2008-06-17 20:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and do so because...we have indecision
2008-06-17 20:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this particular case, however, the market is being literally held up because of the depth of available money that's out there for investment
2008-06-17 20:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of it another way
2008-06-17 20:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many in here would agree that much of the hedge positions taken out over the last year or so have been taken off the table?
2008-06-17 20:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a little?
2008-06-17 20:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a lot?
2008-06-17 20:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: none at all?
2008-06-17 20:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no idea?
2008-06-17 20:02:47 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: equity index hedges?
2008-06-17 20:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: name it
2008-06-17 20:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: commodity
2008-06-17 20:02:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What hedge position you asking about?
2008-06-17 20:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: equity
2008-06-17 20:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: debt
2008-06-17 20:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold
2008-06-17 20:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all have been correcting of late
2008-06-17 20:03:16 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: is this a 'sentiment' question?
2008-06-17 20:03:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: few imo
2008-06-17 20:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be mojave
2008-06-17 20:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not the direction I'm going for
2008-06-17 20:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it is worth noting that all 4 asset classes are in consolidation to down trends right now
2008-06-17 20:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...when's the last time you saw stocks and bonds moving lower together?
2008-06-17 20:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh yea...how about the dollar?
2008-06-17 20:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bottom line here is that there must be an absolute ton of "phantom" cash on the sidelines right now
2008-06-17 20:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some from the unwinding of previous hedged positions
2008-06-17 20:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some from withdrawing from the markets because of indecisiveness
2008-06-17 20:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some from not having clarity of future Congressional laws
2008-06-17 20:06:40 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: It looks like it's in oil, not on the sidelines
2008-06-17 20:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it?
2008-06-17 20:06:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: not clear that commodities headed down.....oil and corn ATH yesterday
2008-06-17 20:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can't hold a rally of late
2008-06-17 20:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but corn is weather related (the floods)
2008-06-17 20:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and oil...is blowing off emotionally...if not already done
2008-06-17 20:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of the unwilling are jumping aboard now...with the train is within site of its final destination
2008-06-17 20:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and yes, there are some areas that are moving higher
2008-06-17 20:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not at all like it was even a year ago where everything was moving higher
2008-06-17 20:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the point here is simple
2008-06-17 20:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there still isn't enough information out there to make an informed decision on which way the next TREND will travel
2008-06-17 20:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can guess
2008-06-17 20:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can anticipate
2008-06-17 20:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there still isn't enough substance to hang your hat on
2008-06-17 20:09:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: We can sit on our hands
2008-06-17 20:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like the first three months of this year when everyone was screaming bear market
2008-06-17 20:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and look what happened
2008-06-17 20:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: impressive, true
2008-06-17 20:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we didn't fall apart either
2008-06-17 20:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are there signs that things "look" bearish?
2008-06-17 20:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-17 20:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's like a head and shoulders pattern
2008-06-17 20:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may look like one, but until you get confirmation with a neckline break, it's just another pattern
2008-06-17 20:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the neckline break, you must have the appropriate volume levels for this same [u]confirmation[/u]
2008-06-17 20:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we don't have this...yet
2008-06-17 20:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bull or bear
2008-06-17 20:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to the ratio adjusted chart shown earlier
2008-06-17 20:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even there you can actually see how we've been "range bound"
2008-06-17 20:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the closer we get to the apex of this range...the more likely the actual break (minus any near term fake outs)
2008-06-17 20:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on
2008-06-17 20:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after snapping to the zero line yesterday, the NASDAQ breadth MCO again moved back below this same line today
2008-06-17 20:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking back to a session about a week or so ago
2008-06-17 20:14:45 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: a ledge is also formed on the NASD MCSUM
2008-06-17 20:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bears to really have a chance to take trend control of things, they will need to keep the pressure on the short term trend of money flow..that is...the longer they can keep the MCO below its zero line, the more likely they will be successful in breaking down the pattern
2008-06-17 20:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes ST...
2008-06-17 20:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and ledges are made to "fall off of"
2008-06-17 20:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they also appear right before the actual pattern sequence low in the MCSUM
2008-06-17 20:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is this "falling off" where all of the unwilling sellers throw in the towel
2008-06-17 20:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with prior movement going INTO the ledge is where the willing traders folded
2008-06-17 20:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order to get the unwilling to give up, there must be some sort of news event to stimulate this decision
2008-06-17 20:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so don't be at all surprised if something "dire" is reported in the next couple of days
2008-06-17 20:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shrug...
2008-06-17 20:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you never really know, do you?
2008-06-17 20:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it will come as a surprise
2008-06-17 20:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gee...and quadruple witch is this Friday...how timely!
2008-06-17 20:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmmm....
2008-06-17 20:19:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, we've narrowed it down to moving steadily lower from here or a bottom
2008-06-17 20:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you may have...I really don't have a clue
2008-06-17 20:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I am trying to present other ideas here
2008-06-17 20:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to keep focused
2008-06-17 20:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not be absorbed by hype
2008-06-17 20:20:28 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: I think it will take some time to reach a bottom
2008-06-17 20:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone in this room is smart enough to know the difference between hyperbole and substance
2008-06-17 20:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could ST
2008-06-17 20:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until we see some commitment by either side here...the market is just going to eat away at your brain
2008-06-17 20:21:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am not seeing any positive hype in last couple weeks... eg: people stopped saying house prices have bottomed, etc.
2008-06-17 20:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe that time and price is a relative concept
2008-06-17 20:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now, after looking at three charts, the odds of another decline from here is better than even
2008-06-17 20:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but how far is far?
2008-06-17 20:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like cycle work
2008-06-17 20:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where a nesting can be one of either moving down into or out of this same low
2008-06-17 20:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes I think we all give ourselves too much information to decipher
2008-06-17 20:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: part of this is that we need to be right
2008-06-17 20:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that we like to know if a trade has a high probability of success or not
2008-06-17 20:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's try again to move on, shall we?
2008-06-17 20:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with this decline in the NASDAQ breadth MCO, we can see that a lower low was created in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2008-06-17 20:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the important things here is that the NASDAQ MCSUM is already days/weeks ahead of the other indices in its unwinding process
2008-06-17 20:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, any declines in this index will tend to be a bit larger on a percentage basis
2008-06-17 20:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here, the rising bottoms line comes in at around the -850 level
2008-06-17 20:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM can actually move quite a bit lower here, and still remain in an intermediate positive structure
2008-06-17 20:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially if this divergence occurs with the price pattern moving to new lows
2008-06-17 20:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...a bit of context is needed
2008-06-17 20:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO's suggest a challenge of the March lows
2008-06-17 20:31:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Isn't being below 0 somewhat negative for the MCSUM all by itself?
2008-06-17 20:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM's, however, could conceivably continue to build a better foundation to rally later
2008-06-17 20:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, it just means that the bears have control - that the 19 day and 39 day EMA's have negatively crossed
2008-06-17 20:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just as negative as it would be positive if the MCSUM was above the zero line
2008-06-17 20:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the case of the NASDAQ
2008-06-17 20:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there still isn't a broad based stimulus going on here
2008-06-17 20:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the NDX data
2008-06-17 20:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can see what's been holding up the price pattern structure of the COMPQ in total
2008-06-17 20:33:33 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: This is what I noticed too: NASDAQ is holding well so far, but internals are in bad shape.
2008-06-17 20:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...the NAAD line continues to make all time lows
2008-06-17 20:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again...it's been doing that since it started in 1972
2008-06-17 20:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you expect from a basket of issues that generally have no future?
2008-06-17 20:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these are secondary issues
2008-06-17 20:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and either make it or break it within a 10 year period (probably less)
2008-06-17 20:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why so many follow the COMPQ - and then go on to even use it as a gauge of market stability is beyond me in understanding
2008-06-17 20:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's garbage, by and large
2008-06-17 20:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...onward
2008-06-17 20:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: snapback to the zero line complete on the NDX breadth MCO
2008-06-17 20:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and do note that the NDX breadth MCSUM is about to move down and through its zero line
2008-06-17 20:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe the news mentioned earlier will be one of the NDX components?
2008-06-17 20:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, unless we see a slowing of the descent of this MCSUM, the move through the zero line will likely be accompanied by something of interest
2008-06-17 20:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rising bottoms line here comes in around the -250 level...a good level for a stopping point of a bullish correctional pattern
2008-06-17 20:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see
2008-06-17 20:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another thing to keep in mind here
2008-06-17 20:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and probably worth a trade
2008-06-17 20:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that we'll more than likely need to see some sort of divergent MCO bottom created from last weeks lows
2008-06-17 20:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with our snapping back to the zero line now
2008-06-17 20:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's quite probable that another decline near term is in the offering
2008-06-17 20:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if, for anything else, to get this same divergence
2008-06-17 20:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a put trade...for the time factor is unclear
2008-06-17 20:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but a quick index short might be the best play to capitalize on this
2008-06-17 20:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once accomplished...cover
2008-06-17 20:42:18 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: for retest of last weeks lows?
2008-06-17 20:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially if breadth plurality is better than last weeks negative 3:1
2008-06-17 20:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, probable
2008-06-17 20:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't take it too far as yet
2008-06-17 20:43:20 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: are you talking S&P or NASDAQ? or either one?
2008-06-17 20:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I'm being a bit more conservative in discussing this only because of the current A/D situation
2008-06-17 20:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would look for any and all - we need a wash out
2008-06-17 20:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have MCO ledges
2008-06-17 20:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have price patterns that suggest that there's still some unfinished business here
2008-06-17 20:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the NDX breadth MCSUM is about to "cross over"
2008-06-17 20:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember last Tuesday?
2008-06-17 20:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe it was Wednesday - let me check
2008-06-17 20:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Wednesday...how the market was pressured all day?
2008-06-17 20:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that was the day in which the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM moved below the zero line
2008-06-17 20:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...the chart patterns smack of a double bottom here - a divergent test of the March lows may do it
2008-06-17 20:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the quicker and harder we go near term, the faster this will be all over
2008-06-17 20:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I think we were looking for the 2nd/3rd week of June for a bottom, right?
2008-06-17 20:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at least two weeks of corrective behavior from the end of May
2008-06-17 20:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2008-06-17 20:48:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NDX MCSUM crossing to the dark side.....what will be next?
2008-06-17 20:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can see the struggle the bears have had so far in trying to get money to trend lower from the May top
2008-06-17 20:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: next? don't know how to answer that
2008-06-17 20:49:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Outside downside day on SPX
2008-06-17 20:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bears will have control
2008-06-17 20:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: outside range day, yes
2008-06-17 20:50:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: just an observation.....on one of the strongest, of late indexes
2008-06-17 20:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Lew didn't like the look of it
2008-06-17 20:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't follow TM
2008-06-17 20:50:21 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-17 20:50:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NDX has been holding things together
2008-06-17 20:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...some of the issues in the NDX have been holding it together - not all of them
2008-06-17 20:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I saw that they aired out AAPL in the last couple of days
2008-06-17 20:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like $199 for a the new iphone wasn't "enough"
2008-06-17 20:51:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Narrowness, another tell
2008-06-17 20:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and that's been something we've discussed in here countless times
2008-06-17 20:52:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: many times to be sure!
2008-06-17 20:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...you can see how the bears, although in control, continue to struggle in the last couple of weeks
2008-06-17 20:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe it's very important in not starting to believe everything you're being told right now
2008-06-17 20:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bear pressure offense is running amok right now
2008-06-17 20:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and really, very little yardage has been gained
2008-06-17 20:53:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Outside downside range day, given downtrend of last 3 weeks argues for down day tomorrow
2008-06-17 20:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could...you will also notice a mid range close yesterday which suggested a down close today
2008-06-17 20:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all the market wants is clarity
2008-06-17 20:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's tired of chopping around
2008-06-17 20:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: using up all of its energy for no gain
2008-06-17 20:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: quite a battle
2008-06-17 20:55:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks for pointing that out.....I love those range days
2008-06-17 20:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the OEX breadth MCO, you can see that the bears have things in paw right now
2008-06-17 20:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they have their purpose, don't they TM?
2008-06-17 20:56:06 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: fib, if we hold the divergent low on MCSUM. That will create a 3 steps pattern, right?
2008-06-17 20:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially when they occur with the trend structure of the internals
2008-06-17 20:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no ST
2008-06-17 20:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a 3 step MCSUM pattern has strict guidelines
2008-06-17 20:56:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looks like many test of 0 with MCO
2008-06-17 20:56:55 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: OK.
2008-06-17 20:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of them is that the second step lower should never overlap the top of the first high
2008-06-17 20:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 3 step's are very rare events
2008-06-17 20:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...let's keep it simple...let's hold divergence
2008-06-17 20:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other thing about the MCSUM 3 step
2008-06-17 20:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that they only appear when a bear market is complete
2008-06-17 20:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't consider the correctional activity of the last year or so as a bear market
2008-06-17 20:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's just too much liquidity for this to be consistent
2008-06-17 20:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bigger picture wise...it's still a high level consolidation no matter which index you look at
2008-06-17 20:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing has been violated in this area
2008-06-17 20:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although...many are using the vertical trendline to make their case
2008-06-17 20:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you take a look at the structures on the horizontal...you might see something different
2008-06-17 20:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far...and until proven otherwise...it still looks like a base is forming
2008-06-17 21:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's just my take...
2008-06-17 21:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as simple as it might be
2008-06-17 21:00:34 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: OK. Thanks!
2008-06-17 21:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this whole housing/financial thing we've seen before
2008-06-17 21:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing new
2008-06-17 21:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only difference this time around is that we get every little pulse of information given to us on a moments notice
2008-06-17 21:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this keeps the anxiety level high
2008-06-17 21:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: certainly, it's not anything like other banking crisis'
2008-06-17 21:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which reminds me
2008-06-17 21:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why is it that anything in which we can't control is called a crisis?
2008-06-17 21:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy, that word sure is being thrown around a lot
2008-06-17 21:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wonder what would happen if we had a REAL crisis?
2008-06-17 21:02:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: In an election year, most things are a crisis
2008-06-17 21:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything has been
2008-06-17 21:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oil crisis
2008-06-17 21:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: housing crisis
2008-06-17 21:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pick your nose crisis
2008-06-17 21:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything is a crisis
2008-06-17 21:03:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Or bunch of people call it that.... look at the global warming crisis
2008-06-17 21:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "crisis" - a word created to scare people into voting for you
2008-06-17 21:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-06-17 21:04:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-17 21:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: snapback on the MID breadth MCO
2008-06-17 21:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the MID breadth MCSUM remains above its zero line
2008-06-17 21:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (no wonder the mid caps don't want to sell off!)
2008-06-17 21:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...
2008-06-17 21:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCO moved above the zero line, and now has snapped back down to this same line
2008-06-17 21:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep an eye on this index
2008-06-17 21:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's important in the liquidity quotient
2008-06-17 21:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the high caps move lower committing the unwilling to dump
2008-06-17 21:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the small caps still stay afloat...
2008-06-17 21:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM breadth MCO remains below its zero line
2008-06-17 21:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the TM breadth MCSUM makes its way to the -250 level
2008-06-17 21:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...in a perfect technical world
2008-06-17 21:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about another sell off with a better negative breadth plurality ratio?
2008-06-17 21:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: stabilize, and then attempt to challenge the May highs?
2008-06-17 21:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you had time to look at this last weeks cumulative charts
2008-06-17 21:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I went ahead and added (where needed) the flag lows that are all so important right now for the bull case
2008-06-17 21:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until these lows are taken out...sorry Smokey...you're not going to get that picnic basket
2008-06-17 21:09:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Cumulative charts were very well annoted this week, btw, thank you
2008-06-17 21:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...it sure "looks like" we're making a major bottom here
2008-06-17 21:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I try to keep it simple and to the point
2008-06-17 21:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and your welcome...once a week is all it takes!
2008-06-17 21:10:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: KISS is good....
2008-06-17 21:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: btw...the A/D charts for 6/27 and 7/3 might be a bit late because of my holiday, but I will get them up as soon as possible
2008-06-17 21:11:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What, no computer on the boat?
2008-06-17 21:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...nada
2008-06-17 21:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I"m going naked
2008-06-17 21:11:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room:
2008-06-17 21:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't want to hear from no one about anything
2008-06-17 21:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I want to watch the world go by and remind me of how good we all have it
2008-06-17 21:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of the STVO's popped up from their "oversold" levels
2008-06-17 21:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's need a bit more work before their job is done
2008-06-17 21:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...a sell off, maybe some MCO divergence, and the VTO's getting "oversold" should do it
2008-06-17 21:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with so many people looking for lower lows, can this actually occur?
2008-06-17 21:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I've never seen so many analysts on one side of the fence as we have now
2008-06-17 21:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone KNOWS that we're in a bear market
2008-06-17 21:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone KNOWS that we're going to lower lows
2008-06-17 21:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone KNOWS that oil is at $136 a barrel and going higher
2008-06-17 21:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone KNOWS that inflation is picking up
2008-06-17 21:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone KNOWS everything!
2008-06-17 21:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can the market accommodate the majority when everyone KNOWS everything?
2008-06-17 21:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more importantly
2008-06-17 21:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: WILL the market accommodate the majority?
2008-06-17 21:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the confidence level of this same "everyone" is about as arrogant as I've ever seen it
2008-06-17 21:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: someone is going to get spanked
2008-06-17 21:16:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: And they want to tell you of the crisis.......just in case you missed it and might vote
2008-06-17 21:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just amazing
2008-06-17 21:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: makes you want to slit your throat
2008-06-17 21:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's really unbelievable...
2008-06-17 21:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know what it was like in past depressions
2008-06-17 21:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but, boy, this sure is getting close to what was going on back during those times
2008-06-17 21:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and seemingly (so far) with the same political results
2008-06-17 21:18:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: At least the rhetoric is ......reality something else
2008-06-17 21:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's not reality...it's perception
2008-06-17 21:19:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That is why you need to hear of the crisis so often
2008-06-17 21:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if you talk about it long enough, it can become self fulfilling
2008-06-17 21:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway..
2008-06-17 21:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.23
2008-06-17 21:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.01
2008-06-17 21:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: minimally "oversold"
2008-06-17 21:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check the 21 day SMA...getting close to "oversold" too
2008-06-17 21:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.52
2008-06-17 21:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .95
2008-06-17 21:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 21 day SMA falling apart
2008-06-17 21:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.51
2008-06-17 21:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .97
2008-06-17 21:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...
2008-06-17 21:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: enough to see another day or two of sell off
2008-06-17 21:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not enough to suggest anything more than that
2008-06-17 21:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then you have repositioning going on this week as well
2008-06-17 21:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line...let's look for near term weakness, and then try to gauge its importance
2008-06-17 21:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-06-17 21:22:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: And we chat again on ?
2008-06-17 21:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Thursday - unless the Dow is down by 500 tomorrow
2008-06-17 21:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 200 won't cut it
2008-06-17 21:23:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: that's clear
2008-06-17 21:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just watch breadth plurality here - that's what's important near term
2008-06-17 21:24:01 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: Russell re-balancing this month - some gaming of that possibly going on as well
2008-06-17 21:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else...I have some more catch up work to do (it never stops)
2008-06-17 21:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes - 6/30?
2008-06-17 21:24:26 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-17 21:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks for the reminder...shouldn't have too much influence near term
2008-06-17 21:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but good to know
2008-06-17 21:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm out of here...everyone have a great rest of the day, and we'll chat on Thursday
2008-06-17 21:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch