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Posts: 5,093
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-06-12 15:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-06-12 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-06-12 16:00:21 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good
2014-06-12 16:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like our charts are back to normal
2014-06-12 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me double check to make sure though.. [smile]
2014-06-12 16:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...all up to date - YEA!
2014-06-12 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-06-12 16:03:41 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Do not know enough yet
2014-06-12 16:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get the charts up and get started then
2014-06-12 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2014-06-12 16:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed with a -15 reading
2014-06-12 16:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components at the bottom of the chart
2014-06-12 16:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both the 10% Trend and the 5% Trends remain above their zero lines
2014-06-12 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then tell us that we are in a corrective sequence right now
2014-06-12 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would take both the components and the MCO to simultaneously be on the same side of the zero line in order for prices to trend
2014-06-12 16:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are not
2014-06-12 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can only move sideways within a trading range
2014-06-12 16:08:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks
2014-06-12 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern support for the NYA is at 10,750
2014-06-12 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where were likely to find our first opportunity to see a solid bottom to the last two days of sell off
2014-06-12 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it turned down today because of the MCO moving below its zero line
2014-06-12 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though with a reading of +647
2014-06-12 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still a bit away from reaching its upside target of +750
2014-06-12 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the ratio adjusted NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that this MCO was a bit weaker today
2014-06-12 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming in with a -40 reading
2014-06-12 16:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that the interest rate sensitive issues that make up the NYSE are showing a higher amount of selling right now compared to just the common only stocks
2014-06-12 16:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite components here
2014-06-12 16:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both remain above their zero line
2014-06-12 16:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which again tells us that we are in a corrective sequence at this time
2014-06-12 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no change of trend at this juncture
2014-06-12 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...I'm sorry
2014-06-12 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the RA MCO reading today was a -13 not a -40
2014-06-12 16:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was looking at the traditional data
2014-06-12 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...
2014-06-12 16:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really sorry here as the new format is taking a bit to get used to
2014-06-12 16:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think I'm going to delete the traditional
2014-06-12 16:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not needed anyway
2014-06-12 16:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-06-12 16:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's back up a bit
2014-06-12 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the -13 reading
2014-06-12 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the interest rate sensitive issues were actually stronger than the CO stocks
2014-06-12 16:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we want to see...with the broader market showing more buoyancy than the commons
2014-06-12 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components suggest corrective activity
2014-06-12 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is showing some natural resistance at the +1000 level of which was our expectation from a couple of weeks ago
2014-06-12 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ data
2014-06-12 16:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we continue to show a bottom above a bottom structure in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-06-12 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we actually are still above the zero line
2014-06-12 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a +16 reading
2014-06-12 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ MCO components are also above their zero line
2014-06-12 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remain on a crossover buy signal
2014-06-12 16:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the 10% Trend resides above the 5% Trend
2014-06-12 16:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no correction there
2014-06-12 16:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like a pullback
2014-06-12 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the objective here was to close last weeks upside pattern gap
2014-06-12 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we settled right at the zero line today with a -4 reading
2014-06-12 16:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our upside target from mid May has now been reached
2014-06-12 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that we have trading balance between buyers and sellers on an intermediate term basis
2014-06-12 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side can now take control of the action
2014-06-12 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO still above its zero line
2014-06-12 16:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is for the buyers to make the first effort here
2014-06-12 16:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they are successful
2014-06-12 16:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more buying will follow and a challenge of the MCSUM highs of early April will be the next challenge for the bulls
2014-06-12 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break above that level would then clear the way for new recovery price highs in the NASDAQ Composite
2014-06-12 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where it would then be able to stay there as well
2014-06-12 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind, of course, that any time we break above or below resistance levels on the MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we generally see a lot of action in prices
2014-06-12 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially at the zero line where we have a change in control
2014-06-12 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that it has now snapped back to its zero line
2014-06-12 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and actually closed today with a -8 reading
2014-06-12 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX components
2014-06-12 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we generated a crossover sell signal today
2014-06-12 16:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both components remain above their zero line
2014-06-12 16:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2014-06-12 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we we're looking at when we see the position of the components
2014-06-12 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if they are above their zero line
2014-06-12 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the direction of that specific EMA is moving higher
2014-06-12 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the component is below its zero line
2014-06-12 16:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that same EMA measurement is moving lower
2014-06-12 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for example
2014-06-12 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the 10% Trend (19 day EMA) is below its zero line
2014-06-12 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 5% Trend (39 day EMA) is above it's zero line
2014-06-12 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that the 19 day EMA is declining while the 39 day EMA is advancing
2014-06-12 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate that the A/D line measurement is either slowing in its advance
2014-06-12 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or, more than likely
2014-06-12 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is moving sideways to lower
2014-06-12 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depending of the pattern structure of the A/D line itself
2014-06-12 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further the component is from its zero line
2014-06-12 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the faster it's moving in that same direction
2014-06-12 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking the components together then
2014-06-12 16:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: produces the MCO
2014-06-12 16:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us the "average speed" in which both of these EMA's are either rising or falling
2014-06-12 16:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that we have a good idea of what the A/D line is doing without having to see a chart
2014-06-12 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NDX breadth MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it moved lower today as well
2014-06-12 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above the +1000 level with a reading of +1049
2014-06-12 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if the MCO decides to go on a confirmed sell signal with its components
2014-06-12 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices would still trend sideways...but more for a period of weeks instead of for days
2014-06-12 16:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we've moved back below the zero line with a reading of -34
2014-06-12 16:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain above their respective zero lines
2014-06-12 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then suggests corrective activity
2014-06-12 16:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far its challenge of last years highs is giving money flow the chance to pause at this juncture
2014-06-12 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll just have to wait to see if there's any bearish follow through on this in the next day or so
2014-06-12 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if much of what we had today was based more on fear of what's happening over seas
2014-06-12 16:32:59 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great detailed info fib sorry to slow you guys down
2014-06-12 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't worry about it...interject anytime
2014-06-12 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern support for the SPX is around the 1920 level
2014-06-12 16:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and below that...the 1900 level
2014-06-12 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also serve as snapback support of the old highs
2014-06-12 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we have a bit of a problem developing
2014-06-12 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's reading at a -42 directly challenging the structural lows of mid May
2014-06-12 16:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the other data charts
2014-06-12 16:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX MCO components remain above their zero lines
2014-06-12 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this again would suggest corrective activity
2014-06-12 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the OEX breadth MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the +1250 level provided a natural resistance point
2014-06-12 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a bit of pullback is now being seen
2014-06-12 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further decay tomorrow, however, would then suggest that we have topped in the MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that our next target for this MCSUM would be the +1000 level
2014-06-12 16:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you will find with the MCSUM is that it tends to use the 250 multiple levels where natural support and resistance levels reside in the market
2014-06-12 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each level produces new and different dynamics as it relates directly to price
2014-06-12 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-06-12 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the average stock that's traded on that index will tend to see quarter point moves when the reading is at the 250 level
2014-06-12 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 500 level would give the average stock 1/2 point moves
2014-06-12 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 750 level would produce up 1 point moves for the average stock that's traded on that same index
2014-06-12 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so on
2014-06-12 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for this is that the more money there is, or the lack of it, diametrically effects the way prices will react when stimulated with the addition or subtraction of money itself
2014-06-12 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more money there is to buy
2014-06-12 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier it is for prices to move higher
2014-06-12 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less money there is would give the same effect, but in this case, drive prices lower
2014-06-12 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the Dow breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it, like the others, also moved back below its zero line today
2014-06-12 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the components remain positive
2014-06-12 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so...we are now in a corrective sequence
2014-06-12 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the Dow breadth MCSUM supporting a +888 reading
2014-06-12 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any kind of buying from these levels will still push prices higher with greater ease because there is still a high enough imbalance between buyers and sellers on an intermediate term basis to do so
2014-06-12 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's difficult for sellers to mount more than a 1 or 2 day effort in pushing prices in their direction before this same selling has exhausted itself
2014-06-12 16:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like having a basketball in the deep end of a swimming pool
2014-06-12 16:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the only way to keep it below the water line is to exert direct pressure on the ball
2014-06-12 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once release
2014-06-12 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it whooshes back above the water line
2014-06-12 16:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lower the level of the pool (liquidity is drained)
2014-06-12 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier it becomes for the sellers (in this case) to apply more and more push without fear of the ball getting away from them
2014-06-12 16:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the Dow breadth MCSUM is finding it challenging to move above both the +1000 level AND the pattern resistance we see on the chart
2014-06-12 16:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you might expect
2014-06-12 16:47:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good info when your buying or shorting Huh?
2014-06-12 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will then take a greater amount of buyers here to break above these level of resistance
2014-06-12 16:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2014-06-12 16:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this matters
2014-06-12 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we deal in probabilities and the potential outcomes of these same probabilities
2014-06-12 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some are better than others all depending on how much amplitude there is for both sides
2014-06-12 16:49:30 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Now talking my kind of language probabilities
2014-06-12 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice on the Dow daily chart that we are now in the vicinity of the previous highs of mid May
2014-06-12 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have now technically met this simple obligation and a bounce off this support should be seen near term
2014-06-12 16:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved back below the zero line
2014-06-12 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2014-06-12 16:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the speed in which money was moving into the market has been stalled
2014-06-12 16:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so
2014-06-12 16:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it is now starting to change its direction
2014-06-12 16:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but hasn't done so as yet
2014-06-12 16:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...
2014-06-12 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that with both of the MID MCO components above their zero lines
2014-06-12 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that the MID A/D line is still in a rising trend
2014-06-12 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the amplitude of the trend is slowing enough to where both EMA's are starting to slow in their ascent
2014-06-12 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the chart pattern here
2014-06-12 16:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the MID price index has now snapped back to or towards its previous highs
2014-06-12 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation there is for a bounce attempt to begin as soon as Friday
2014-06-12 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO failed in its recent challenge to move to higher highs
2014-06-12 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the move was strong enough to where there's still a decent amount of money in the system to where prices will likely trend sideways at this time
2014-06-12 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see the struggle this basket of issues has had over the last month
2014-06-12 16:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with good separation of its individual postings
2014-06-12 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we then run out of fuel and have to take a breather more times than not
2014-06-12 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's almost like running a marathon at 50 years old
2014-06-12 16:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you used to be able to run for greater distances at 30 without needing to rest
2014-06-12 16:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now you tend to take more pauses on the same course
2014-06-12 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2014-06-12 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the first declining tops line on the SML breadth MCSUM intersects around the +400 level
2014-06-12 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but first let's see how things sort out at the +250 level before we can reasonably expect such a challenge to actually take place to begin with
2014-06-12 16:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-06-12 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this index remains the weakest of the bunch
2014-06-12 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given its current level in the MCSUM
2014-06-12 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the Total Market breadth MCO
2014-06-12 16:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a zero line test today
2014-06-12 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while still on a crossover buy signal
2014-06-12 16:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just "co-incidentally"
2014-06-12 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all happening while the TM breadth MCSUM is challenging its +500 level (imagine that)
2014-06-12 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-06-12 16:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point it looks as though we're taking a "pause to refresh" here
2014-06-12 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while using the story line of Iraq falling to the Radical Islamist's
2014-06-12 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and news events like this can change emotions on a daily basis
2014-06-12 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to see how important this story becomes short term
2014-06-12 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but intermediate term
2014-06-12 17:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further panics should be well absorbed by the least for now
2014-06-12 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the Dow was only down 110 points today on the news
2014-06-12 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and already the bears are screaming top
2014-06-12 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Oh...which reminds me
2014-06-12 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE came in at 76 today
2014-06-12 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the put speculators found it too irresistible to probably buy cheap near month puts with all of this "bad news"
2014-06-12 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and meanwhile
2014-06-12 17:03:35 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: How does the ISEE help trade the market?
2014-06-12 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same options will probably expire worthless next week when we have our relief rally
2014-06-12 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ISEE measures the amount of put buying over that call buying
2014-06-12 17:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the number...the more calls that are being bought
2014-06-12 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lower the number...the more puts
2014-06-12 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the range for it being "overdone" is .80 on the put side and anywhere (at least now) above +200
2014-06-12 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence is a sentiment tool
2014-06-12 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to show how traders are acting and reacting to price movements
2014-06-12 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this helps us in determining if we're over done or not
2014-06-12 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then take this and compare it with the breadth and volume data to help provide a better blueprint on how the price pattern is likely to move
2014-06-12 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this example
2014-06-12 17:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had as much put buying today as if the market had been declining for weeks or months
2014-06-12 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this came up after only days of decay
2014-06-12 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much, too fast
2014-06-12 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market will react accordingly
2014-06-12 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the market will do everything it can to make the majority wrong
2014-06-12 17:07:41 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Is it helpful every day or just certain times?
2014-06-12 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume McClellan's
2014-06-12 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only when the numbers are at an's a pulse on the market's health
2014-06-12 17:08:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks
2014-06-12 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all other numbers are just part of the scenery
2014-06-12 17:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a tip off that you have a strong up trend, for example, is seeing lots of put buying as the market continues to climb higher
2014-06-12 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if there is a lot of call buying as the market is moving lower
2014-06-12 17:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this keeps the wall or worry intact for both sides
2014-06-12 17:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both trying to outsmart everyone else by believing that a top or bottom has been made
2014-06-12 17:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO volume MCO
2014-06-12 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's only at just below its zero line
2014-06-12 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's NOT leading breadth to the downside
2014-06-12 17:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then tells us that a corrective sequence is being seen in prices
2014-06-12 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we like to see volume either leading, or at least keeping pace, with the directional trend of breadth
2014-06-12 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO volume MCSUM
2014-06-12 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's in sync with its breadth cousin right now
2014-06-12 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this synchronization is necessary for prices to trend in one direction or the other
2014-06-12 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2014-06-12 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher
2014-06-12 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same story with the NYSE Composite volume data
2014-06-12 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with respect to the broader market
2014-06-12 17:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last two days is that of traders taking profits off the table for now
2014-06-12 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that our expectation would be for a technical bounce as soon as Friday
2014-06-12 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ volume MCO
2014-06-12 17:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we did break below last week's low point
2014-06-12 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the selling wasn't too heavy in this basket of stocks
2014-06-12 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that we look for in a change in trend
2014-06-12 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to have those issues that are "not so deserving", like the NASDAQ group of stocks, selling off before the mid caps and large cap issues
2014-06-12 17:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are not seeing that at this time
2014-06-12 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then reinforces that we're likely to see higher price highs in the broader market sooner than later
2014-06-12 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this case
2014-06-12 17:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we saw with the Ukrainian situation
2014-06-12 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a word or two can make a difference in sentiment
2014-06-12 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is also at the +634 level
2014-06-12 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this indicator continues to rise
2014-06-12 17:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be difficult for the sellers to make any downside head way in the price pattern itself
2014-06-12 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO is also showing this same lack of confirmation in the downside reversal
2014-06-12 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as downside volume continues to be mild
2014-06-12 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NDX volume components near snapping back here
2014-06-12 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising if we see a technical bounce as soon as Friday
2014-06-12 17:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that with the NDX volume MCSUM is at a +1138 reading
2014-06-12 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to be highly difficult for the sellers to mount up much beyond a day or so of movement in their direction before "the basketball whooshes to the surface again"
2014-06-12 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback now complete in the SPX volume MCO
2014-06-12 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a technical bounce there as soon as tomorrow
2014-06-12 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCO is showing just a bit more weakness
2014-06-12 17:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then suggests that the other 400 stocks in the SPX are fairing well right now
2014-06-12 17:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is not indicative of a top
2014-06-12 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCSUM has found some resistance at just below the +750 level
2014-06-12 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see at least a snapback back to up to the Dow volume MCO zero line as soon as tomorrow
2014-06-12 17:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this zero line test, and snapback of the 10% to the 5% MCO components, suggests a technical bounce near term
2014-06-12 17:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the SML volume MCO is showing very little signs of fatigue here
2014-06-12 17:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so whatever money that is going into the SML right's substantial enough to keep prices from falling apart near term
2014-06-12 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term is a matter of days
2014-06-12 17:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term is a matter of a week or two
2014-06-12 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term is that of 4-6 weeks
2014-06-12 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO remains nicely in positive territory
2014-06-12 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as do the components
2014-06-12 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM volume MCSUM now showing a +663 reading which is nicely above the important +500 level
2014-06-12 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-06-12 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that the last two days are part of a corrective process
2014-06-12 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on the fact that much of this has to do with a news event
2014-06-12 17:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be one of those "correction on the fly" moments
2014-06-12 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where specialists are using the excuse of this same news event to accumulate stock before distributing this new inventory at higher levels
2014-06-12 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2014-06-12 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no indication of a change in trend at this time
2014-06-12 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain with our blueprint of the next possible topping area in and around the July 4th holiday weekend
2014-06-12 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on to the volume oscillators
2014-06-12 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are just south of being neutral
2014-06-12 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's were "overbought" going into today's action and have now eased off a bit
2014-06-12 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the VTO's are "overbought" where we could be looking at a multi day consolidation to ease this off
2014-06-12 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.74
2014-06-12 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2014-06-12 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.08
2014-06-12 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .87
2014-06-12 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're working off our "overbought" condition nicely there
2014-06-12 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.37
2014-06-12 17:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2014-06-12 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2014-06-12 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-06-12 17:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the market is taking a well deserved breather
2014-06-12 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a technical bounce is now indicated near term
2014-06-12 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Open 10's now back to a more comfortable reading in being closer to neutral
2014-06-12 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see new price highs as soon as the beginning of next week
2014-06-12 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any further weakness providing a trading range while the market works off this indecision
2014-06-12 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-06-12 17:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard working with the new format
2014-06-12 17:39:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Not here! Need to let this digest!
2014-06-12 17:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully all of you were able to follow along
2014-06-12 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take time
2014-06-12 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what the scripts are for
2014-06-12 17:40:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: How do you go back from chat to charts so fast?
2014-06-12 17:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-06-12 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why I get paid the big bucks!
2014-06-12 17:40:31 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: and well worth it!
2014-06-12 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just don't expect to understand all of this right away
2014-06-12 17:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give yourself time to work with it
2014-06-12 17:41:15 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: will do
2014-06-12 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..if there's nothing else
2014-06-12 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-06-12 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-06-12 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-06-12 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-06-12 17:44:11 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK! Good night to Fib, PrincelyM and theSpookyone.

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