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Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-06-12 19:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-06-12 19:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you folks did a great job on Tuesday
2008-06-12 19:06:29 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I really liked Tuesday. Really forced me to look at the charts, especially with the Socratic leading you did.
2008-06-12 19:06:37 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Excellent.
2008-06-12 19:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'s like learning something in school
2008-06-12 19:07:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You know what happened to Socrates?
2008-06-12 19:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you don't "live it" it doesn't fully sink in
2008-06-12 19:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...
2008-06-12 19:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you folks think?
2008-06-12 19:07:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DCB today
2008-06-12 19:08:19 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: New downside targets on the NDX.
2008-06-12 19:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a "decayed" one at that
2008-06-12 19:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-12 19:08:39 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: 1700 to 1800?
2008-06-12 19:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that what your work is suggesting?
2008-06-12 19:09:16 [Message] KS -> Main Room: What is DCB ?
2008-06-12 19:09:19 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: MCO touched march bottom signaling downside
2008-06-12 19:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "dead cat bounce"
2008-06-12 19:09:33 [Message] KS -> Main Room: ok thx
2008-06-12 19:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: np - and welcome
2008-06-12 19:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone else have a feel for things right now?
2008-06-12 19:10:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: have not looked at DP charts yet
2008-06-12 19:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...base it on yesterday
2008-06-12 19:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (I haven't looked either)
2008-06-12 19:11:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think we will test March lows soon
2008-06-12 19:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a time in which a collective discussion is fully warranted
2008-06-12 19:11:28 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: didn't like the shallow bounce off those mco levels
2008-06-12 19:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: isn't that unusual if you think about
2008-06-12 19:11:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Not very good breadth all day today
2008-06-12 19:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...and we didn't hold the mornings highs...the market is "heavy"
2008-06-12 19:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is a lot of things bothering traders right now
2008-06-12 19:12:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: the way we gave it up going into the close, good for bears
2008-06-12 19:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'s not good for the bulls
2008-06-12 19:12:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Still sitting the hands for most part
2008-06-12 19:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the political climate is probably a lot of the problem right now
2008-06-12 19:13:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: other part short
2008-06-12 19:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's good
2008-06-12 19:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a break of the MCO lows would indicate this to be a proper allocation
2008-06-12 19:14:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: But, there's likely to be a tradable bounce soon, maybe next week.....not sure
2008-06-12 19:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone wish to lead this evening?
2008-06-12 19:15:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That leading business is really hard, flipping all the screens and all.....need a couple monitors
2008-06-12 19:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ( takers?)
2008-06-12 19:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I do it on one monitor
2008-06-12 19:15:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: pick on someone, like the teachers do, lol
2008-06-12 19:15:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Ya, but you're superhuman
2008-06-12 19:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only have two windows open...this and DP
2008-06-12 19:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: far from it
2008-06-12 19:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I pick DD!
2008-06-12 19:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (that will teach you)
2008-06-12 19:16:11 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I did it on Tuesday, with Trademark!
2008-06-12 19:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but look how much you gained from the experience!
2008-06-12 19:16:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: That's true. Ok...deep breath...
2008-06-12 19:16:57 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Just remember, I am working off of dial-up.
2008-06-12 19:17:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Actually I thought my conclusions Tuesday fairly prescient for next couple days trades
2008-06-12 19:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will be there to catch you
2008-06-12 19:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if that's the case, then we can adjourn?
2008-06-12 19:17:39 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: OK, on the NYSE components, a tops below tops structure is in place.
2008-06-12 19:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyday is different
2008-06-12 19:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the common only data?
2008-06-12 19:18:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes
2008-06-12 19:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go on
2008-06-12 19:18:27 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: With wide postings on the McSum, indicating money flowing out.
2008-06-12 19:18:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: with conviction
2008-06-12 19:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where did this conviction come in on the MCSUM?
2008-06-12 19:19:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: near 0
2008-06-12 19:19:39 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Below
2008-06-12 19:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more specifically - AT zero
2008-06-12 19:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving from bulls to bears controlling the action
2008-06-12 19:20:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: NYSE is a little more interesting to me (ratio-adjusted).
2008-06-12 19:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go on
2008-06-12 19:20:31 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: In that the McSum has just reached 0, and at the same time...
2008-06-12 19:20:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The MCO has reached a level where traditionally there has been previous support.
2008-06-12 19:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or to put it another way, the short term rubber band has been adequately stretched
2008-06-12 19:21:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I would suspect a bounce, except for the fact that the postings are so wide, once again. A little sideways, maybe?
2008-06-12 19:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're talking breadth or price?
2008-06-12 19:22:12 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Breadth
2008-06-12 19:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be hard too based on the math of the MCO
2008-06-12 19:22:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: oh
2008-06-12 19:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that we're dealing with EMA's
2008-06-12 19:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and being as far stretched as we are right now, a continuation in this same direction would be increasingly harder to do
2008-06-12 19:23:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: hard to what?
2008-06-12 19:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can, of course, add additional energy to in stretching the rubber band
2008-06-12 19:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's viscosity is liable to come to a breaking point (making lower MCO lows TM)
2008-06-12 19:24:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The fact that the ratio adjusted NYSE is performing better has something to do with that they are more interest sensitive, which means...what?
2008-06-12 19:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well....if we compare the levels from where the CO and composite MCSUM topped out, this probably might answer your question
2008-06-12 19:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: +200 on the CO...+400 on the composite
2008-06-12 19:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a longer way to travel?
2008-06-12 19:25:55 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, I am looking
2008-06-12 19:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now what used to be a 200 point difference between the two has narrowed to just over 100 data points
2008-06-12 19:27:02 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Also, the CO double topped on McSum while the components couldn't even meet previous high.
2008-06-12 19:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so is the composite showing better strength right now?
2008-06-12 19:27:09 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, definitely.
2008-06-12 19:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it?
2008-06-12 19:27:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: That's the ratio-adjusted one, correct?
2008-06-12 19:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what used to be a 200 point difference is only 100 now?
2008-06-12 19:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-12 19:27:54 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, it hasn't gone below 0, yet.
2008-06-12 19:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would seem by this narrowing between the two MCSUM's that the interest rate sensitives have taken a larger blow in the last week or so
2008-06-12 19:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did have farther to travel
2008-06-12 19:28:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Oh....yes, I see.
2008-06-12 19:28:34 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Wow
2008-06-12 19:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: compare the positions of the MCO's
2008-06-12 19:28:45 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Ah ha.
2008-06-12 19:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite bottomed at -75
2008-06-12 19:29:10 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Wider!
2008-06-12 19:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO bottomed at -70 or so
2008-06-12 19:29:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So, percentage wise, it's doing worse!
2008-06-12 19:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so much of the sell off (so far) has been more so in the interest rate sensitives than the commons
2008-06-12 19:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-12 19:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have to look at everything
2008-06-12 19:30:19 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: See, I was just looking at absolutes.
2008-06-12 19:30:51 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Moving onto the NASDAQ...
2008-06-12 19:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct...which is OK...but since we have the pleasure of breaking down the make up of the indices as we do, it pays to have a wide angle lens
2008-06-12 19:31:05 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: With the rubber band stretched so far to -70 or -75, is the expectation for a bounce now?
2008-06-12 19:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...that would be the technical expectation
2008-06-12 19:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we did see that today
2008-06-12 19:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether we see follow through or not is our near term question
2008-06-12 19:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but today didn't give a good indication...
2008-06-12 19:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key for now is first the divergent lows of March and then the flags
2008-06-12 19:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with our testing the divergent lows of March yesterday
2008-06-12 19:32:48 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The NAS MCO has also reached a place of traditional support, but MCO has another 200 points to travel before it hits support.
2008-06-12 19:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what would this suggest?
2008-06-12 19:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm sorry DD...I'll be quiet
2008-06-12 19:33:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, I want to hear the answer, sorry, was getting all revved up here.
2008-06-12 19:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: please continue
2008-06-12 19:33:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: You first.
2008-06-12 19:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're going to answer this question as you move along...I promise
2008-06-12 19:34:04 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What does it suggest?
2008-06-12 19:34:11 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I don't know...
2008-06-12 19:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, you do
2008-06-12 19:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you just don't know it
2008-06-12 19:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go on
2008-06-12 19:34:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Jan MCO has a interesting story....not much price bounce off the first MCO low
2008-06-12 19:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have some sharp folks in here and I'm sure they will respond
2008-06-12 19:35:39 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The potential drop in the NAS McSum to reach support suggests to me that there is a very good chance that it will test March lows?
2008-06-12 19:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that a statement or a question?
2008-06-12 19:36:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, it's a sort of a shaky statement
2008-06-12 19:36:33 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: K, deep breadth...I think there is a good chance that the NAS will test March lows.
2008-06-12 19:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why? (look at the data)
2008-06-12 19:36:54 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Because McSum has no support for 200 points down
2008-06-12 19:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...but what would that have to do with the March lows?
2008-06-12 19:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe there's some other tool on that page that would better served?
2008-06-12 19:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of it this way
2008-06-12 19:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how can you know the direction to be traveled without first knowing how much fuel you have to actually get there?
2008-06-12 19:38:53 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Which is the fuel again? The MCO or the components?
2008-06-12 19:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone wish to help out our Diva?
2008-06-12 19:39:22 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: I believe the MCO.
2008-06-12 19:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why?
2008-06-12 19:40:00 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Don't remember but thought I heard that before
2008-06-12 19:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-06-12 19:40:25 [Message] jkw -> Main Room:
2008-06-12 19:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is the McClellan Oscillator - what does it measure?
2008-06-12 19:40:33 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I definitely remember hearing that the components are the gauge.
2008-06-12 19:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe part of what makes up the gauge?
2008-06-12 19:41:15 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The MCO measures money flowing in or out of the market - advances and declines.
2008-06-12 19:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how does it do this?
2008-06-12 19:41:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: by comparing a fast and slower moving average of the advances and the declines.
2008-06-12 19:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good
2008-06-12 19:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if your comparing moving averages, what are you "gauging"?
2008-06-12 19:42:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: the speed at which money is flowing in or out.
2008-06-12 19:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excellent
2008-06-12 19:43:16 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But then, how does the components compare to the MCO? I really don't understand why we need to see both.
2008-06-12 19:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or... it's an "accelerometer"
2008-06-12 19:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have you have been in a racing car...or seen one?
2008-06-12 19:44:08 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, I dated one though.
2008-06-12 19:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-12 19:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: speedy?
2008-06-12 19:44:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Italian racer
2008-06-12 19:44:34 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I couldn't look, too scared.
2008-06-12 19:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (I don't think I'm going there)
2008-06-12 19:44:46 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: lol
2008-06-12 19:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the components show you, in essence, how the fuel is being used within the carburetor
2008-06-12 19:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO is your fuel gauge
2008-06-12 19:45:32 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But doesn't the MCO show that too?
2008-06-12 19:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the more you push down on the gas pedal, the higher the extreme
2008-06-12 19:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: different...sometimes your fuel is too rich or too poor (the components)
2008-06-12 19:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes its "polluted"
2008-06-12 19:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...OK the MCO is probably the better tool here
2008-06-12 19:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM (or the road traveled) isn't going to go too far unless there's fuel expanded in this same direction
2008-06-12 19:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, going back to the NASDAQ
2008-06-12 19:48:04 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Well, there's definitely has been a lot of fuel expended in this direction...and not only that...
2008-06-12 19:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking now at the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2008-06-12 19:48:09 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: We need more...
2008-06-12 19:48:15 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: TEXTURE!
2008-06-12 19:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go
2008-06-12 19:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point, we now have the opportunity to challenge the March lows
2008-06-12 19:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because...
2008-06-12 19:49:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Down is the line of least resistance now on all levels
2008-06-12 19:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's say your destination is 2 miles down the road
2008-06-12 19:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you only pushed the gas pedal enough to go 35 miles per hour - took your foot off the accelerator - and plan to coast there because of the high price of gas
2008-06-12 19:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would you make it?
2008-06-12 19:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...
2008-06-12 19:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would you need more acceleration to get there?
2008-06-12 19:50:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Or, maybe foot on accelerator, but transmission in reverse?
2008-06-12 19:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you drop your trannie
2008-06-12 19:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you would...
2008-06-12 19:51:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Reverse thrusters then
2008-06-12 19:51:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: like airplane landing
2008-06-12 19:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless you're on a hill, you would have a better chance of succeeding to your 2 mile goal with a pump to 75 MPH than that of 35
2008-06-12 19:52:17 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Fib, question.
2008-06-12 19:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...if you look at the NASDAQ breadth MCO, with it taking out the March divergent lows, there is now a high probability of a retest of this same area
2008-06-12 19:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fire away
2008-06-12 19:53:09 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What does it mean when, for example, the MCO goes over the 0 line, but the components can't make it? Shouldn't they go in tandem?
2008-06-12 19:53:16 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Or below, doesn't matter
2008-06-12 19:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes..doesn't matter which direction
2008-06-12 19:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the MCO is above the zero line, and the components are below, you're going to misfire (fuel is too poor)
2008-06-12 19:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why when we have such configurations, you're more than likely going to chop
2008-06-12 19:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same thing on the inverse
2008-06-12 19:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now?
2008-06-12 19:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both are moving in the same direction
2008-06-12 19:55:20 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-12 19:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which tells us that money is trending lower...or moving out
2008-06-12 19:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very important to keep in mind where we are in the bigger picture
2008-06-12 19:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is it we've been seeing with the NYSE A/D data in the last month or so?
2008-06-12 19:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: has it been trending?
2008-06-12 19:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have there been points of resistance and support of note?
2008-06-12 19:56:48 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-12 19:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have we been coiling?
2008-06-12 19:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tighter...
2008-06-12 19:56:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-12 19:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and tighter
2008-06-12 19:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and tighter...
2008-06-12 19:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what happens when a tight coil is released?
2008-06-12 19:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wouldn't we then see exaggerated moves in this same data?
2008-06-12 19:57:57 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-12 19:58:08 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But sometimes you get a false move first
2008-06-12 19:58:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Like a hose spraying one way then snaking another.
2008-06-12 19:58:37 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Do you have a chart available to see the NYSE AD currently?
2008-06-12 19:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we've been coiling within an important area, what is it that we would look for out of such a structure?
2008-06-12 19:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a large, trending move would develop?
2008-06-12 19:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, you want to see it JK?
2008-06-12 19:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: combo charts anyone?
2008-06-12 19:59:31 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: If not a bother please..
2008-06-12 19:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never a bother...
2008-06-12 20:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take a look at the AMAD first - comments?$AMAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p12190745628&a=118792218&r=435
2008-06-12 20:01:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: On your mark buy or sell?
2008-06-12 20:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: about the NAAD? -$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p05438774662&a=118792179&r=312
2008-06-12 20:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that these charts are only updated on Friday's TM (as far as the status)
2008-06-12 20:03:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: oh, thanks
2008-06-12 20:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'s the NYAD -$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p79564382133&a=118792146&r=417
2008-06-12 20:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bullish or bearish?
2008-06-12 20:04:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bear last stand, stood
2008-06-12 20:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it did, didn't it?
2008-06-12 20:04:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: therefore, bearish.
2008-06-12 20:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else - the NYAD itself?
2008-06-12 20:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TA 101 folks...
2008-06-12 20:05:48 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Probably turned down now
2008-06-12 20:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wasn't the A/D line already under the influence of a declining tops line?
2008-06-12 20:06:23 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes
2008-06-12 20:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the charts posted are updated...only the titles aren't
2008-06-12 20:06:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Turn down and sinking fast
2008-06-12 20:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it was the bulls job to move above this same line, wasn't it?
2008-06-12 20:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very fast
2008-06-12 20:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good news for the bulls?
2008-06-12 20:07:42 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Bad news for the bulls
2008-06-12 20:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now, yes
2008-06-12 20:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like the March period, all is not totally lost right now
2008-06-12 20:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if the bulls don't make a stand of their own very soon, we're going to see lower stock prices for a while
2008-06-12 20:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the only real question being "for how long?"
2008-06-12 20:09:09 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: nyad currently at 50% retracement off march rally
2008-06-12 20:09:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: very soon like tomorrow or Monday
2008-06-12 20:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the biggest problems right now are not so much in the way of the financial's
2008-06-12 20:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: its more of a "sovereignty" question
2008-06-12 20:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls took it fully on the chin last Friday, and the carnage was quite dramatic
2008-06-12 20:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to say a couple of things here
2008-06-12 20:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the longer term bull market is now in real trouble
2008-06-12 20:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the amount of liquidity that was thrown at the market earlier this year, to have the market falling apart right now as it's doing is quite concerning for the bull argument
2008-06-12 20:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...there are some very important support levels still below us that need to be violated before we can put the final nail in this coffin
2008-06-12 20:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I want everyone to understand that something is going on below the surface that's ringing some warning bells here
2008-06-12 20:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of this is more of a political nature and this kind of discussion is better served on other mediums
2008-06-12 20:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but being that the bulls had continuing trouble in gaining what was made over the last couple of months
2008-06-12 20:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then to see it given back as quickly as we've seen over the last couple of days, this is not the typical behavior of an uptrend
2008-06-12 20:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...this is not to say that we won't altogether lose the longer term trend since the 2003 lows
2008-06-12 20:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the recent political events unfolding, along with the Federal Reserve acting as a lender of choice, provides very little in the a way confidence and stability to the financial sector as a whole
2008-06-12 20:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we, as a group, have seen and felt this, and the bulls made their attempt in stabilizing these factors
2008-06-12 20:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the way things are falling apart here
2008-06-12 20:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (and mind you it's only been a week since the break)
2008-06-12 20:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it appears that there is evidently too much to overcome in order to keep the longer term trend of price moving higher
2008-06-12 20:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: am I bearish?
2008-06-12 20:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm as bearish as I am bullish...
2008-06-12 20:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I see what I see and take my clues from there
2008-06-12 20:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but now that we have made new flags over the last couple of days
2008-06-12 20:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take several weeks now before we see another tradable bottom to work with
2008-06-12 20:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less...we're also testing divergent support on many of the MCO's which suggests that a full on challenge of the March lows is now necessary before we have any chance of advancing price structure can take place
2008-06-12 20:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if we do take out the flag lows generated last year during this current process, that should be it for the bulls
2008-06-12 20:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...with the combo charts shown here and on the weekends
2008-06-12 20:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I make it very clear on what is critical for the bull case, and have done so for many months now
2008-06-12 20:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bears last stand zone has been on the NYAD chart now for over 2 months
2008-06-12 20:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well before we even moved back up above the zero line
2008-06-12 20:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we see that it held
2008-06-12 20:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also know that we failed to achieve confirmation of escape velocity by not moving above the +500 level on this same MCSUM
2008-06-12 20:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these are warnings of a lack of strength to combat the natural default of the market itself - which is always lower
2008-06-12 20:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gas at $4.50?
2008-06-12 20:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would be willing to bet a large lunch at a drive through of your choice that the retail sales numbers wasn't entirely because of received stimulus checks last month
2008-06-12 20:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but probably more because of the "anticipation" of these same monies
2008-06-12 20:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which allowed many to go out and believe that it was OK to go into hock a little more
2008-06-12 20:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as I mentioned on Tuesday, my shopping trip was rather dismal in what I saw going on
2008-06-12 20:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I also shopped again last night, this time for apparel, and even this area isn't seeing a lot of customers despite the fact of less Father's day
2008-06-12 20:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trying to decide where to take this....and how far I should
2008-06-12 20:29:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think we were on NASDAQ chart
2008-06-12 20:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...the markets character right now isn't looking very good
2008-06-12 20:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and at this point, I would be looking around at some inverse ETF's and such waiting for further confirmation
2008-06-12 20:30:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Or, put another way, get to June 9 and up, up away.....has couple dents
2008-06-12 20:30:48 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Did you exit your "paper" 75
2008-06-12 20:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to the NYAD combo chart -$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p79564382133&a=118792146&r=417
2008-06-12 20:31:04 [Message] doc -> Main Room: 75% long position?
2008-06-12 20:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would had done so on Friday's collapse...yes...
2008-06-12 20:31:20 [Message] doc -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-06-12 20:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...we were coiling
2008-06-12 20:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if Friday's collapse was a "mistake"
2008-06-12 20:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Monday gave us this confirmation
2008-06-12 20:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the NYAD combo chart
2008-06-12 20:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you had a declining tops line controlling the pattern
2008-06-12 20:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the A/D line move up to this line, and failed to move above it
2008-06-12 20:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during this same advance from the bottom, there was a series of hurdles that needed to be jumped in order to get this same trend line
2008-06-12 20:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in particular, the EMA's that you see on the chart
2008-06-12 20:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after our first failure to move above the longer term trend line, we found initial support back in the vicinity of the 200 day EMA (1% Trend)
2008-06-12 20:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would had been the technical expectation
2008-06-12 20:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but during this test, we also saw the faster EMA's continue to squeeze
2008-06-12 20:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as we have seen in the past, when the 19 day and 39 day EMA's show this kind of configuration, there is a very high probability that once this, or any chart pattern, moves away from these same squeeze points, the move tends to be quite dramatic
2008-06-12 20:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have talked about this many times over the last couple of months
2008-06-12 20:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this time, though, the 1% Trend joined this "squeeze" party
2008-06-12 20:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, as I mentioned in the Ratio Adjusted NYAD Line posts on the main board
2008-06-12 20:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once the line makes a move, it will be large and one of trend
2008-06-12 20:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so's taken less effort to the downside as it has for much of the last two weeks on the upside
2008-06-12 20:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this then would be called "the path of LEAST resistance"
2008-06-12 20:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: other problems..
2008-06-12 20:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 9 month low
2008-06-12 20:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was expected to occur in mid December
2008-06-12 20:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and seemed to be right on schedule
2008-06-12 20:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but something unexpectedly happened in January which cause a "Full Stop" to our long positions
2008-06-12 20:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since that time the market has been using a great amount of effort just to attempt to re-establish what was thought of as being a "rouge wave"
2008-06-12 20:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but many times since the spring lows we've noticed that the MCSUM postings tended to be close together and choppy in their composition
2008-06-12 20:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this indicated that although the bulls had control of things, there wasn't a whole lot of conviction behind it
2008-06-12 20:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, there were many occasions in April and May in which we were looking for some sort of corrective activity only to be "surprised" by some renewed strength to higher highs in the MCSUM
2008-06-12 20:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also looked at a longer term chart of the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-06-12 20:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing a typical outcome of a "3 step pattern"
2008-06-12 20:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get the chart again for those who may be new here - one moment
2008-06-12 20:42:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Or old here and need reminding
2008-06-12 20:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:$NYSI&p=D&st=2002-04-01&i=p43900282310&a=138299480&r=325
2008-06-12 20:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you see here is a classic MCSUM pattern in which a uptrend's unwind
2008-06-12 20:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 3 step portion of the pattern, seen earlier this decade, was the point in which the previous BEAR market ended - not that a bull market had begun...
2008-06-12 20:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that it was the third high in this same pattern that actually was the kick off point (look at the price data)
2008-06-12 20:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during the bull market phase, each top in the MCSUM is lower than the next as the energy that was able to turn the market around and provide "escape velocity" was being worked off
2008-06-12 20:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since it was an all time historic number (on the traditional), it took more years that would be "usual and customary" to do this
2008-06-12 20:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: under the guidelines provided by Sherman McClellan, the topping phase, the time in which all of the unwilling buyers, the people who were calling for a bear market, all of the those who didn't either understand the physics of the market or chose to not to, threw in the towel....and this last burst of energy broke above this same declining tops line in the it a blow off in breadth
2008-06-12 20:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from there, prices continued to move higher, but then not only did we diverge with the last move up, but our infamous SOB pattern developed
2008-06-12 20:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we then triggered this SOB, and moved towards the zero line
2008-06-12 20:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls then attempted to re-establish the previous trend, but failed to do so, and a classic Summation Failure pattern occurred
2008-06-12 20:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this was the point in which an actual counter trend began
2008-06-12 20:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of this, of course, was during the tightening phase of credit, no less, the eventual correctional phase that also began in Asia
2008-06-12 20:51:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: you mean that summation failure near end of last correction phase?
2008-06-12 20:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...there's only one Summation Failure noted
2008-06-12 20:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Summation Failures are very rare - just as 3 step patterns are
2008-06-12 20:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on...what you also note after the MCSUM Failure
2008-06-12 20:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that the decline generated took out the longer term rising bottoms line of this same MCSUM
2008-06-12 20:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Strike 2
2008-06-12 20:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then from there, we got our "oversold" bounce, with the NASDAQ leading last October (probably the folks who took it on the chin from the 2000/2002 decline)
2008-06-12 20:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then...January happened
2008-06-12 20:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where we weren't able to move back above the zero line
2008-06-12 20:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...
2008-06-12 20:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the expectation here is that much of this correctional process would be behind us because "historically" when the liquidity pool rises this tends to control the flames of this same counter trend move
2008-06-12 20:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and yes, looking the chart currently, we have both the zero line AND a possible snapback in progress on the line drawn on the chart
2008-06-12 20:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: will it hold?
2008-06-12 20:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: up until Monday, there was reason to look for this to happen
2008-06-12 20:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but something changed
2008-06-12 20:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe it was the cold slap in the face on last Friday's data
2008-06-12 20:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe it was because of the Presidential candidates now involved (BTW...according to Tom McClellan, this current decline fishtails with that of the Presidential Cycle)
2008-06-12 20:59:40 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: how so?
2008-06-12 20:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or maybe...everything we've heard about for decades about greed and irresponsibility is finally catching up with us
2008-06-12 21:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: according to what I know...based on the Presidential Cycle pattern, we should be rallying into the summer...
2008-06-12 21:00:39 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes - that's what the election cycles suggest
2008-06-12 21:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the biggest problem right now, no matter where we might point a finger at, is that there is a big lack of confidence
2008-06-12 21:04:43 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: fib does the nyse breadth mcsum taking out last oct highs mean anything?
2008-06-12 21:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, it did so, yes
2008-06-12 21:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it still wasn't able to get above +500
2008-06-12 21:06:23 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: doesn't it mean that there was no mcsum div here
2008-06-12 21:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no divergence...agreed, but +500 was the last hurdle to overcome to be called in the clear
2008-06-12 21:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to the combo charts
2008-06-12 21:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls, the divergent MCSUM lows MUST hold here, or we're going to be in a bear market for probably another year
2008-06-12 21:11:14 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: would -250 be the expectation for the nyse breadth mcsum if this is still a bull...right?
2008-06-12 21:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I say again, no matter what your political opinion might be, but there is a growing lack of confidence building right now no matter WHO takes office in November - both Presidential and Congressional, and the market doesn't like it when there is no clarity
2008-06-12 21:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, just this week, traders seem to be running, not walking, away from the market
2008-06-12 21:12:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: meaning ugly not matter what?
2008-06-12 21:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be the rising bottoms line, yes RF
2008-06-12 21:13:12 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: thanks
2008-06-12 21:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: actually, that's incorrect
2008-06-12 21:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's more like the -500 level
2008-06-12 21:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line for tonight is simple
2008-06-12 21:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: be prepared for anything now
2008-06-12 21:14:07 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: but ongoing bull markets don't go correct that far, right?
2008-06-12 21:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: RF....there's something wrong here
2008-06-12 21:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see how it sorts out
2008-06-12 21:14:54 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yep
2008-06-12 21:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I am attempting to warn everyone, both bull and bear, that something smells here
2008-06-12 21:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't like what I'm seeing...something is not consistent
2008-06-12 21:15:29 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Look at the MCO on NDX. Very drastic move lower.
2008-06-12 21:15:38 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: What is not consistent ?
2008-06-12 21:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking of a good way to put it
2008-06-12 21:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: part of it is what is expected
2008-06-12 21:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: part of it is background noise
2008-06-12 21:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had extreme sentiment readings in March and continue to build on those same extremes
2008-06-12 21:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and normally, this would be a classic sign of a major bottom
2008-06-12 21:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it still might be so...after all...maybe I'm the last to throw in the towel and THEN the market can go about its business
2008-06-12 21:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's something inconsistent with the method
2008-06-12 21:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe it's globalization that is throwing things into this inconsistency
2008-06-12 21:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's something that I too have to adjust to
2008-06-12 21:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but my remarks this evening are more LONGer term in nature
2008-06-12 21:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term...the MCO's are primed to move higher here towards the zero line
2008-06-12 21:19:07 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: secular bull is dead you think?
2008-06-12 21:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may be...if the divergent MCSUM lows are violated, that should do it
2008-06-12 21:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott wise...B wave top in the SPX on a multi year basis
2008-06-12 21:19:49 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i agree
2008-06-12 21:20:03 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: but we are a long way from getting there
2008-06-12 21:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the problems built up over the many decades are too large for monetary stimulus to take care of
2008-06-12 21:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...a challenge of the March lows is indicated
2008-06-12 21:21:43 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: that's on the nasdaq right?
2008-06-12 21:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the MCO's take out last summers lows, put a fork in it, it's done for a while
2008-06-12 21:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and all those who have been screaming bear market will be vindicated
2008-06-12 21:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful
2008-06-12 21:22:27 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: bearful
2008-06-12 21:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the most important thing here is for capital preservation and THEN capital appreciation
2008-06-12 21:22:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Got time to do vol oscillators and trins before we close?
2008-06-12 21:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...let's do that
2008-06-12 21:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this rounding top formation on the index charts right now is also dangerous
2008-06-12 21:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't like the look of them at all
2008-06-12 21:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: reminds me of the summer of 2001
2008-06-12 21:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the about the same technical backdrop
2008-06-12 21:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's showed climactic behavior yesterday
2008-06-12 21:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should see a near term price bottom by tomorrow
2008-06-12 21:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are "oversold"
2008-06-12 21:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are getting mighty close to "oversold" too
2008-06-12 21:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...this could another secondary bottom
2008-06-12 21:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the bulls have to put together something more robust than what we saw today
2008-06-12 21:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we need to move back to the MCO zero lines quickly - by next Tuesday
2008-06-12 21:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a lower low here on the MCO's could be back breaking
2008-06-12 21:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: BTW - we were .02 short of a Bollinger Put volume buy signal last Friday - 1.98 (2.00 would be the buy signal)
2008-06-12 21:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we really washed out 2008-06-12 21:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here we go again
2008-06-12 21:28:33 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: 92% down volume on Friday
2008-06-12 21:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .75
2008-06-12 21:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom pickers
2008-06-12 21:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.03
2008-06-12 21:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're going to need to get that Open 10 over 1.10
2008-06-12 21:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe it was short covering...could be
2008-06-12 21:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the days action would be consistent to that
2008-06-12 21:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shorts covered in the morning...but no new buying during the day...and we just sagged
2008-06-12 21:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would cause the low (high) TRIN figures
2008-06-12 21:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .82
2008-06-12 21:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .99
2008-06-12 21:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: relief rally near term, and then....?
2008-06-12 21:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .73
2008-06-12 21:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.00
2008-06-12 21:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the market is definitely "oversold"
2008-06-12 21:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any economic data tomorrow?
2008-06-12 21:32:15 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: cpi
2008-06-12 21:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh boy
2008-06-12 21:32:29 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: consumer confidence
2008-06-12 21:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, we all know that CPI is going to be high
2008-06-12 21:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, gasoline here has gone up a buck in just a month
2008-06-12 21:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of that, confidence isn't going to look that good either
2008-06-12 21:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the consumers ARE buying, aren't they?
2008-06-12 21:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line for tonight
2008-06-12 21:34:03 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: retail sales were stellar
2008-06-12 21:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are many internal problems right now
2008-06-12 21:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take a couple of weeks (at least) to correct this
2008-06-12 21:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: new MCO flags are hopefully in place
2008-06-12 21:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with any new MCO lows probably the final back breaker for the longer term bulls
2008-06-12 21:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ummm...what else?
2008-06-12 21:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good news is that crude should be peaking in the next 4 weeks
2008-06-12 21:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold looks to be bottoming - bonds as well
2008-06-12 21:36:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: You said they go together!
2008-06-12 21:36:14 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: not opposite
2008-06-12 21:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but offset each other by 4 months
2008-06-12 21:36:32 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Oh, right, duh
2008-06-12 21:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the oil's top will echo gold's top in March
2008-06-12 21:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: commodities look to be in bear market rallies
2008-06-12 21:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: corn and soy and probably weather (flood) related
2008-06-12 21:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which reminds me
2008-06-12 21:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's all send our best wishes to those who are facing flooding right now
2008-06-12 21:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's the worst natural disaster on the planet
2008-06-12 21:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and hopefully those who read this are OK, and undamaged
2008-06-12 21:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-06-12 21:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh more thing
2008-06-12 21:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: next week will be my last chats until August
2008-06-12 21:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it's warranted, we'll do our usual Tuesday and Thursday, and will add either Wednesday or Friday if warranted
2008-06-12 21:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise...I'm going on vacation!!!
2008-06-12 21:40:05 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: well deserved
2008-06-12 21:40:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: bon voyage
2008-06-12 21:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-06-12 21:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: close attention to this weeks A/D data, it should be most enlightening
2008-06-12 21:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again next Tuesday
2008-06-12 21:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-06-12 21:41:16 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Thank you,Fib!
2008-06-12 21:41:37 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: good night
2008-06-12 21:41:44 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Thanks...Good night all

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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