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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-06-10 19:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-06-10 19:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-06-10 19:01:29 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Great, thank you.
2008-06-10 19:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mighty good to hear!
2008-06-10 19:02:02 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: And you?
2008-06-10 19:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fine, thanks
2008-06-10 19:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-06-10 19:08:35 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, great call...
2008-06-10 19:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (now what did I say?)
2008-06-10 19:08:47 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: last week about whipsaw for next couple of days
2008-06-10 19:09:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Market been a little weaker since last chat
2008-06-10 19:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...yes, and no...the market is having palpitations right now
2008-06-10 19:09:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Could you take a look at oil before the end of the chat today?
2008-06-10 19:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: took no less than three pieces of "bad news" to move the undecided last Friday...true
2008-06-10 19:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Oil?
2008-06-10 19:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...how about a blow off in progress?
2008-06-10 19:10:25 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Ya' think? Or correction?
2008-06-10 19:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think back to mid March in gold
2008-06-10 19:10:34 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I don't follow gold
2008-06-10 19:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you should
2008-06-10 19:10:45 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: OK
2008-06-10 19:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's your best indicator of future liquidity patterns (or lack thereof)
2008-06-10 19:11:10 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I remember you saying oil and gold go in sync
2008-06-10 19:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in a way...but by an offset of about 3/4 months
2008-06-10 19:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money moves from gold INTO commodities, into debt, and finally into equities
2008-06-10 19:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it an "echo effect"
2008-06-10 19:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if you took a historical look of the price of gold
2008-06-10 19:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and shift the price of crude (for example) about 4 months...you will see the echo
2008-06-10 19:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the last time we discussed oil was about a week or so ago
2008-06-10 19:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and at that time it was suggested that oil's consolidation/decline was probably the echo of last February's gold consolidation
2008-06-10 19:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then...boom...BOOM!!
2008-06-10 19:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so now we hear..."oil to $150"
2008-06-10 19:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "Oil to $200!"
2008-06-10 19:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and today the Russians are suggesting $250!!
2008-06-10 19:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe...it might...but not until gold leads the way
2008-06-10 19:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing though about crude is the political thumb that can generate short term extremes
2008-06-10 19:16:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oil price been on nightly news,
2008-06-10 19:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...I think Denleo and I were possibly looking at $150 on the high side
2008-06-10 19:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, every night
2008-06-10 19:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: calling it like a horse race
2008-06-10 19:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is very typical of blow offs
2008-06-10 19:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where emotion takes over and common sense is thrown out the window
2008-06-10 19:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like NASDAQ 2000
2008-06-10 19:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or Gold 1980
2008-06-10 19:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or the ag's of various time frames
2008-06-10 19:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the best thing today is that there are products out there that can take advantage of either direction
2008-06-10 19:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as we talked about 2 weeks ago
2008-06-10 19:18:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: question for ya, what is the time relationship between silver and gold and silver and oil? you mentioned that oil and gold are offset by about 4 months
2008-06-10 19:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when you see limit down in crude, only then will you see a top
2008-06-10 19:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: silver is the poor man's gold and will generally move higher during the final phases of a gold top
2008-06-10 19:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the first three months of this year as an example
2008-06-10 19:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one moment
2008-06-10 19:19:38 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Fib.....do you think Gold is heading down break past .382 retracement ?
2008-06-10 19:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-06-10 19:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we did break support today - I think
2008-06-10 19:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me look
2008-06-10 19:21:20 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Looks very weak ....very close at $866
2008-06-10 19:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 200 day EMA is at $853 which would be snapback territory
2008-06-10 19:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we do travel down to the 4th wave of one lesser degree, $800 is the target
2008-06-10 19:22:14 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Hope it holds or may see 50% retracement
2008-06-10 19:22:43 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Thank you.
2008-06-10 19:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..for the ongoing count proposal, anything below $800 would suggest another idea
2008-06-10 19:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...nice two rally in the dollar
2008-06-10 19:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...I don't think I've seen such a move in many, many years
2008-06-10 19:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so be it
2008-06-10 19:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lots going on intermarket wise right now
2008-06-10 19:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: big battle going on
2008-06-10 19:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shouldn't be too surprising based on the A/D data
2008-06-10 19:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but nothing really confirmed as yet
2008-06-10 19:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lots of bad news though
2008-06-10 19:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was shopping last night
2008-06-10 19:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and boy...you would think by walking into some of the stores that I was in some 3rd world country
2008-06-10 19:26:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Were you only one in the store? News says it is very bad
2008-06-10 19:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very little in the way of lookers, no less buyers
2008-06-10 19:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was in several
2008-06-10 19:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Circuit City looked like a graveyard
2008-06-10 19:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Staples looked like no one was in business
2008-06-10 19:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Best Buy was hopping
2008-06-10 19:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the customer service there was exceptional
2008-06-10 19:27:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: CC and Staples are kind of loser stores nowadays
2008-06-10 19:27:14 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What do you make of that, that Best Buy was hopping?
2008-06-10 19:27:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: While other stores were dead?
2008-06-10 19:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seems that they are doing their best to keep market share
2008-06-10 19:27:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: BBY not loser store,
2008-06-10 19:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the mall was quiet - but it was Monday night, so hard to compare
2008-06-10 19:28:03 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But if one store could be busy, means price of gas is not only factor in poor retail.
2008-06-10 19:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gas here is now at 4.45
2008-06-10 19:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it goes up about 2-4 cents a day
2008-06-10 19:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this is definitely keeping people at home...OR...finding other things to do
2008-06-10 19:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I'll give you a quick example
2008-06-10 19:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was shopping for a camera for my upcoming trip
2008-06-10 19:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and one of the things that you will notice right away is that there's not a lot of camera stores anymore
2008-06-10 19:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: reason?
2008-06-10 19:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because people come in and play with the products, and then go home and buy it from "retailers" with no store front (no less E-Bay)
2008-06-10 19:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it makes it very hard for someone to stick around if all they're there for is to show product and not SELL product
2008-06-10 19:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the internet has changed the way we do business
2008-06-10 19:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and many of the government statistics still don't consider this
2008-06-10 19:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so...the news is bad
2008-06-10 19:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Walmart?
2008-06-10 19:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're doing well because of the times
2008-06-10 19:31:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Also, corporate retails stores are 'top' heavy. CEO
2008-06-10 19:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is true...part of the no store front idea
2008-06-10 19:31:36 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: new 52 week high today for WMT
2008-06-10 19:31:51 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: CEO's give themselves multi-million dollar raises and meanwhile, cut services at store level
2008-06-10 19:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...whether you get the kind of service you want or need is a different kettle of fish
2008-06-10 19:32:13 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Bad way to do business
2008-06-10 19:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...companies that are publically traded have only one boss...their shareholders
2008-06-10 19:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the shareholders say "OK", not much you can do or be annoyed about - it is what it is
2008-06-10 19:33:02 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But SBUX hasn't cut services. There is a conception of quality at some level there.
2008-06-10 19:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you want to make a statement, you have the option of not doing business with that company
2008-06-10 19:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: SBUX fell into the trap of over saturation
2008-06-10 19:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and believing...like most retailers...that if something goes from 2 to 4 it should go from 4 to 8
2008-06-10 19:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are always corrections
2008-06-10 19:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are always changes in the way the public purchases
2008-06-10 19:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another good example here would be with...Krispy Kreme
2008-06-10 19:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or - what's the name of the ice cream place? Cold Stone
2008-06-10 19:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as animals we are always "evolving"
2008-06-10 19:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TASER still makes the same good product, but the perception now is different than it was in 2003, isn't it?
2008-06-10 19:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why money rotates
2008-06-10 19:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as consumers, we rotate, we change
2008-06-10 19:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what was important before may be so in the future, or not
2008-06-10 19:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: SUV's, Mini Vans, Hummers
2008-06-10 19:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some areas are "forced"
2008-06-10 19:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: others are just the natural ebb and flow
2008-06-10 19:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Global Cooling has been replaced with Global Warming
2008-06-10 19:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which, BTW, we haven't had any sun spot activity in such a long period of time that the last time something like this happened we did in fact have Global Cooling
2008-06-10 19:38:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Global cooling was not good for inciting panic and funding from Gov
2008-06-10 19:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will be
2008-06-10 19:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bank on it
2008-06-10 19:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people who make their livings on making others "fear" something will always find a way to keep this same fear in the publics eye
2008-06-10 19:40:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Are you suggesting global cooling will be back?
2008-06-10 19:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one example...all time snowiest winter in many states this last winter...blamed on global warming
2008-06-10 19:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe that we are moving into global cooling, yes
2008-06-10 19:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just as I believed we were moving into global warming back in the 1970's
2008-06-10 19:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the planet breaths in and out
2008-06-10 19:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line..it's all propaganda money and politics - it's business
2008-06-10 19:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: humans have little to do with global events
2008-06-10 19:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however
2008-06-10 19:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by the very taking of carbon dioxide OUT of the picture, you will get unintended consequences
2008-06-10 19:42:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, that cooling must be due to the warming. Economic suicide bill in Congress cannot get much traction with cooling.
2008-06-10 19:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you will be "green"
2008-06-10 19:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sigh
2008-06-10 19:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I heard
2008-06-10 19:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very hard these days NOT to be "David Downer"
2008-06-10 19:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the social pressure these days is just so overwhelming
2008-06-10 19:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again...it's probably just as bad as in the past
2008-06-10 19:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we just get information so much faster today and react accordingly
2008-06-10 19:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's getting harder and harder to have intellectual as opposed to emotional conversations
2008-06-10 19:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I digress
2008-06-10 19:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...what are we here for anyway?
2008-06-10 19:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is going into the trash
2008-06-10 19:45:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: My DP subscription may expire if we don't get to the charts
2008-06-10 19:45:15 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: XLE making a really interesting pattern
2008-06-10 19:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone says so
2008-06-10 19:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't need DP anymore
2008-06-10 19:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is no future
2008-06-10 19:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the banks are collapsing
2008-06-10 19:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: politics is running amok
2008-06-10 19:45:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, forgot
2008-06-10 19:45:58 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms on MCO while components are going sideways on XLE
2008-06-10 19:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oil to going into the stratosphere
2008-06-10 19:46:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: don't mind me, lol
2008-06-10 19:46:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Don't worry, on news they are explaining how Obama and taxing oil comanies will make it better
2008-06-10 19:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one can afford their mortgage anymore
2008-06-10 19:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one can afford to drive
2008-06-10 19:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people are using local retail stores for trying things out and buying from the cheapest vendor elsewhere
2008-06-10 19:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's no manufacturing in the US
2008-06-10 19:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we just take take take
2008-06-10 19:47:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: This really is the end of the whirl
2008-06-10 19:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the tallest skyscraper is now in Dubai
2008-06-10 19:47:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am convinced...
2008-06-10 19:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dolllar has no chance of recovering
2008-06-10 19:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one is friendly anymore
2008-06-10 19:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people are fighting to get "what's theirs"
2008-06-10 19:48:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: My feng shui teacher said that when we wouldn't build the World Trade Tower higher than before, that was it for America
2008-06-10 19:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so who needs DP?
2008-06-10 19:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can they afford to?
2008-06-10 19:49:11 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Not a question, they had to
2008-06-10 19:49:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: they consult him, but didn't take his advice
2008-06-10 19:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we wouldn't want to offend anyone, right?
2008-06-10 19:49:41 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: He said dollar would de-value after that
2008-06-10 19:49:57 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: We would lose our world leadership and other countries would hate us
2008-06-10 19:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, if they devalue the dollar, you can put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye
2008-06-10 19:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: huh?...they already hate us...don't they?
2008-06-10 19:50:33 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I could charge if I could do that
2008-06-10 19:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: isn't the mantra to destroy the head of the serpent?
2008-06-10 19:51:04 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: High buildings are very important in feng shui at the place of the dragon's teeth
2008-06-10 19:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed...
2008-06-10 19:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they also correspond to major tops
2008-06-10 19:51:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So new WT site bldg should be taller?
2008-06-10 19:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the biggest skyscraper boom in the US was in the late 1920's and early 1930's
2008-06-10 19:52:01 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Coca-cola, Chase, many companies use feng shui, just don't tell anyone
2008-06-10 19:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-06-10 19:52:12 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: They use my teacher
2008-06-10 19:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe you need to hire yourself out?
2008-06-10 19:52:50 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, I am a bug compared to my teacher
2008-06-10 19:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone wish to talk about the market?
2008-06-10 19:53:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DD, be careful on that, I think it might be illegal...
2008-06-10 19:53:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: XLE?
2008-06-10 19:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much bearish things out there...I might as well through in the towel
2008-06-10 19:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XLE...hmmm
2008-06-10 19:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me take a look
2008-06-10 19:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=XLE&p=D&st=2007-08-01&i=p10981889453&r=1538
2008-06-10 19:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: opinions please
2008-06-10 19:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything look odd?
2008-06-10 19:55:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: That's what I was trying to say!
2008-06-10 19:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well then, say it!
2008-06-10 19:55:25 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, I am all talked out
2008-06-10 19:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Oil's going to $250, right?
2008-06-10 19:55:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bullish chart
2008-06-10 19:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I guess being a buyer here would be good
2008-06-10 19:56:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Charts always look great at tops.....that is why they call it top
2008-06-10 19:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why is it bullish?
2008-06-10 19:56:38 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: b up, now c down-not bullish to me
2008-06-10 19:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...why a top then?
2008-06-10 19:56:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: All in sync for up, and away, not diverge
2008-06-10 19:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no divergence?
2008-06-10 19:57:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well none I see on this chart
2008-06-10 19:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Oil went to new all time highs, and the XLE didn't?
2008-06-10 19:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you wouldn't call that divergence?
2008-06-10 19:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about the exhaustion gap?
2008-06-10 19:58:04 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: full divergence
2008-06-10 19:58:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: filled
2008-06-10 19:58:12 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: rsi,ppo
2008-06-10 19:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: momentum is lost
2008-06-10 19:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: exhaustion gaps do get filled
2008-06-10 19:58:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Mo, good enough
2008-06-10 19:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: break-away gaps are the only gaps that do not get filled
2008-06-10 19:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the ADX
2008-06-10 19:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: distribution
2008-06-10 19:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would kind of fit with the blow off idea
2008-06-10 19:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less, the gold/oil offset
2008-06-10 19:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's look at the internals
2008-06-10 19:59:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How did you know distribution via ADX?
2008-06-10 20:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsi_XLE.html
2008-06-10 20:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the ADX is just meandering
2008-06-10 20:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no trend
2008-06-10 20:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: divergent top on the 8 day
2008-06-10 20:00:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: isn't that what we want with ADX?
2008-06-10 20:01:14 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But on DP you have a bottoms above bottoms structure as price trends down. Could be bullish
2008-06-10 20:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: actually, it's better if you see the ADX moving higher
2008-06-10 20:01:32 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: negative ppo and rsi divergence
2008-06-10 20:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that the ADX measures "trend"
2008-06-10 20:01:40 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And McSum has hit support
2008-06-10 20:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all you're seeing now is momentum keeping prices buoyant
2008-06-10 20:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: MCO wise, we've been below the zero line now for about a month
2008-06-10 20:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is not surprising because of the high level of the MCSUM
2008-06-10 20:02:50 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: in my mind, classic invitations being sent out to late bulls-all over the media
2008-06-10 20:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the last time we viewed this data I do believe we talked about that even though the MCSUM was going to decline, it didn't mean that prices would
2008-06-10 20:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I think we can all agree that there isn't one person on the planet that doesn't know about oil and gas right now
2008-06-10 20:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and having prices rally some $16 in two days can have the desired effect
2008-06-10 20:04:22 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-06-10 20:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the blow off we were looking for last month when we talked about this
2008-06-10 20:04:51 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: totally agree
2008-06-10 20:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember how everyone just KNEW that the peak was two weeks ago?
2008-06-10 20:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can a price trend develop if everyone knows there is one?
2008-06-10 20:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can a top occur?
2008-06-10 20:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can a bottom occur?
2008-06-10 20:05:26 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: volume spoke, as well
2008-06-10 20:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: big distribution right now
2008-06-10 20:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and frankly
2008-06-10 20:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after last weeks run up
2008-06-10 20:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now THAT was speculation
2008-06-10 20:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first time I've seen it since oil topped at $40
2008-06-10 20:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...and as another example given, the government can only do so much in fighting a trend
2008-06-10 20:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I speak of the mention last week of their so called "investigation"
2008-06-10 20:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the basketball goes below the surface, and whoosh...
2008-06-10 20:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: MCSUM wise we're still "overbought" here at +811
2008-06-10 20:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...I don't actually have the XLE A/D data
2008-06-10 20:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if were to be pushed up against a wall
2008-06-10 20:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would think that the XLE A/D line is looking like the REIT distribution pattern seen on the weekly A/D review
2008-06-10 20:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making it just a matter of time
2008-06-10 20:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to that end
2008-06-10 20:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I still like mid summer
2008-06-10 20:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's say July
2008-06-10 20:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping in mind
2008-06-10 20:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that those who are either just getting into this area, or are sitting on some nice profits, are going to take their time in selling these same positions
2008-06-10 20:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...oil itself could peak earlier - maybe this month
2008-06-10 20:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while something like the XLE stays around bobbing it's head above the surface
2008-06-10 20:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would be consistent to what the MCSUM is indicating
2008-06-10 20:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, it would all fit nicely
2008-06-10 20:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else is going on?
2008-06-10 20:12:26 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: the dollar has the look of SERIOUS intervention
2008-06-10 20:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe
2008-06-10 20:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably more because of interest rates rising
2008-06-10 20:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe the near term problem right now with seasoned traders is that they are still trying to feel out Benanke - after having Greenspan for so long, there still isn't a lot of track record there
2008-06-10 20:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, when he says "the dollar is too low" does it really mean anything?
2008-06-10 20:14:02 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Y, but of benefit to many countries, something to consider
2008-06-10 20:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always a consideration
2008-06-10 20:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if other countries are going to keep their interest rates one step ahead of the US
2008-06-10 20:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dollar is going to have a tough time fighting for competition
2008-06-10 20:15:17 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: maybe, but the US problems are out in the open, Europe still to show it's true hand
2008-06-10 20:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and...can one of the largest two advances in some time be considered something of a trend, or just that of shorts covering after not having any follow through after Friday?
2008-06-10 20:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of the angst right now is that either side can't build up enough believers
2008-06-10 20:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...the bears have taken a large swipe
2008-06-10 20:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with regards to equities
2008-06-10 20:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you look at oil and you have to wonder
2008-06-10 20:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the Asian markets are retreating, just exactly where is this demand we've been hearing about?
2008-06-10 20:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no easy answers here fundamentally
2008-06-10 20:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: globalization sure has changed things
2008-06-10 20:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can't take it away now
2008-06-10 20:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you either have to go with it, or complain
2008-06-10 20:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and complaining ain't going to get you too far
2008-06-10 20:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else do you want to talk about...share??
2008-06-10 20:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any hot stocks out there?
2008-06-10 20:20:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What about the dp charts
2008-06-10 20:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you do them TM...
2008-06-10 20:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-06-10 20:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they don't matter anymore
2008-06-10 20:20:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I am too slow
2008-06-10 20:20:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: only have one monitor
2008-06-10 20:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: naw...pick and choose...you've been here long enough
2008-06-10 20:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: me too
2008-06-10 20:20:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k, give it a shot
2008-06-10 20:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything we should be looking at?
2008-06-10 20:21:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: VIX projecting to 28 using Hurst methods
2008-06-10 20:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how do you use price cycles to forecast emotion?
2008-06-10 20:22:20 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: ugh...
2008-06-10 20:22:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: CO small point mco change
2008-06-10 20:23:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: mco broke below rising bottoms, McsuM back to 0
2008-06-10 20:23:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Battle of bull and bear
2008-06-10 20:23:45 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Bullish divergence on MCO, too
2008-06-10 20:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the rising bottoms has been broken, can there still be a battle?
2008-06-10 20:24:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: No, bulls have lost, at least ST
2008-06-10 20:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: flash...my gas station now is at 4.46...up another 3 cents - two price increases today!
2008-06-10 20:25:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: may be different tomorrow
2008-06-10 20:25:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: but for now the bears rule
2008-06-10 20:25:15 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But it really hasn't been broken? Last low was higher?
2008-06-10 20:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe our divergence from last Thursday has been broken?
2008-06-10 20:26:01 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes
2008-06-10 20:26:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: only potentially higher, not done going down yet, just potential divergence
2008-06-10 20:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCSUM at the zero line...?
2008-06-10 20:26:29 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And components AND MCO below
2008-06-10 20:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the MCSUM is moving lower...
2008-06-10 20:26:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bears have the ball
2008-06-10 20:26:48 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: do or die for the bulls here
2008-06-10 20:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I hope there's not too much blood
2008-06-10 20:27:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, d or d the bulls
2008-06-10 20:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any important levels to watch for on the MCSUM?
2008-06-10 20:28:12 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: This one, lol
2008-06-10 20:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I guess so...why?
2008-06-10 20:28:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, 0 watch 0
2008-06-10 20:28:44 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Because 0 is where there is perfect balance
2008-06-10 20:28:53 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Look for one side to take control
2008-06-10 20:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if the MCSUM is declining, aren't the bears in control?
2008-06-10 20:29:29 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, because at 0 there is often a snap back
2008-06-10 20:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we should look for some sort of bounce here?
2008-06-10 20:29:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: yes
2008-06-10 20:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm....interesting
2008-06-10 20:30:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: or at least, sideways
2008-06-10 20:30:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: don't count on bounce
2008-06-10 20:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we don't?
2008-06-10 20:30:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: -200 is next
2008-06-10 20:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything important holding the structure in place?
2008-06-10 20:30:49 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, support at share price here
2008-06-10 20:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: share price...but doesn't the direction of the internals lead price?
2008-06-10 20:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM has been declining for a couple of weeks...maybe price is playing catch up?
2008-06-10 20:32:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: direction of internals down, A/D been ugalee
2008-06-10 20:32:15 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: internals don't look fresh, I think the March lows beckon
2008-06-10 20:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why Lew?
2008-06-10 20:32:46 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: ad today terrible, on a slight price move down
2008-06-10 20:33:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no lack of interpretation here....
2008-06-10 20:33:18 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: follow through was needed, opposite happened
2008-06-10 20:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does one day give a forecast...or is this adding fuel to the fire?
2008-06-10 20:33:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: go lew
2008-06-10 20:33:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: moving on
2008-06-10 20:33:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MCO on NYSE did make lower low, and rising bottoms broken, headed down to test March lows, IMO
2008-06-10 20:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but didn't we have an indication of something like this might be happening back in mid May?
2008-06-10 20:34:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: something?
2008-06-10 20:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we look at the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-06-10 20:35:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: crossover sell
2008-06-10 20:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: was there anything that happened in mid May that would forecast a March low target?
2008-06-10 20:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably nothing...please go on
2008-06-10 20:36:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: nothing I see mid may
2008-06-10 20:36:54 [Message] kean -> Main Room: The MCO took out the blip below zero in mid April.
2008-06-10 20:38:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NASDAQ mco small point change
2008-06-10 20:38:45 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: In mid-May MCO and components went below 0
2008-06-10 20:38:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Bad sign
2008-06-10 20:39:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: mco of nasdaq took out rising bottoms, crossover sell on components, and MCSUM fell off shelf like structure of late at resistance
2008-06-10 20:39:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: while McSum started a ledge formation
2008-06-10 20:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you make of this TM?
2008-06-10 20:40:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Also postings are wide
2008-06-10 20:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did the cross below zero do anything to the overall structure DD?
2008-06-10 20:41:43 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: On Nas or NYSE?
2008-06-10 20:41:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bears in charge
2008-06-10 20:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was assuming you were talking about the NYSE
2008-06-10 20:42:34 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, I was but TM moved on
2008-06-10 20:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you didn't
2008-06-10 20:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have two conversations in here
2008-06-10 20:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's OK
2008-06-10 20:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about the spike low of mid April?
2008-06-10 20:43:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: No, it portended a potential test of April lows
2008-06-10 20:43:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Oh, you just said that
2008-06-10 20:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..in a way...don't be sad
2008-06-10 20:44:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Not much to say re NDX, same story but not new low on MCO, components on crossover sell
2008-06-10 20:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the spike low on the NYSE breadth MCO coincided with what in the price pattern?
2008-06-10 20:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're doing a great job Mark...
2008-06-10 20:45:51 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: McSum hit support here with spike low?
2008-06-10 20:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "in the price pattern"
2008-06-10 20:46:16 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: oh
2008-06-10 20:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (I have a smile on my face...it's going to hit you any second now)
2008-06-10 20:46:54 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: new low, but there is also support there is well...
2008-06-10 20:47:12 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: April lows!
2008-06-10 20:47:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: SPX small point change on mco, found some some mco support at recent mco low, components on crossover sell, Mcsum BREAKS below 0, not pretty, bears on rampage
2008-06-10 20:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go on...and if the MCO April lows were broken....
2008-06-10 20:48:01 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: March is next, gulp
2008-06-10 20:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on rampage??
2008-06-10 20:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because?
2008-06-10 20:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (keep it simple)
2008-06-10 20:48:36 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Line of least resistance
2008-06-10 20:48:43 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: breadth leads price
2008-06-10 20:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but more importantly?
2008-06-10 20:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go
2008-06-10 20:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the April lows in the MCO coincided with the price level seen on the chart, and this was violated, wouldn't you then have enough energy to move past this same price low
2008-06-10 20:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the objective of....?
2008-06-10 20:49:34 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-06-10 20:49:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The water in the bathtub!
2008-06-10 20:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-06-10 20:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: smiling now?
2008-06-10 20:50:06 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes
2008-06-10 20:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now if you think back to last week
2008-06-10 20:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when everyone one was singing "happy days are here again!"
2008-06-10 20:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they weren't
2008-06-10 20:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now we have two tests of the zero line behind us
2008-06-10 20:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no follow through
2008-06-10 20:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time
2008-06-10 20:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the divergent lows of March itself have not been violated either
2008-06-10 20:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the ONLY forecast we can get from this...especially since...well...what does the NASDAQ tell you now?
2008-06-10 20:52:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: OEX small mco point change, price finding some support at current price, components on crossover sell, MCSUM below 0.....advantage bears
2008-06-10 20:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any similarities?
2008-06-10 20:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go on Mark...don't mind me...
2008-06-10 20:53:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: told you I was slow on the screens....but ok
2008-06-10 20:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're doing great
2008-06-10 20:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have to leave in 5 minutes though...hopefully you can get to the TRIN data before I leave
2008-06-10 20:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone want to help TM?
2008-06-10 20:56:51 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Small point change on OEX
2008-06-10 20:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any visual difference between the OEX and NYSE data?
2008-06-10 20:57:54 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms structure holding on MCO
2008-06-10 20:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any significance to this?
2008-06-10 20:58:26 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, particularly since McSum has hit traditional place of support
2008-06-10 20:58:39 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Possible rally or at least chop
2008-06-10 20:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be...maybe traders are becoming a bit on the defensive side?
2008-06-10 20:59:11 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Ah...
2008-06-10 20:59:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: similar story DOW, mcsum still on shelf at 250, price testing support, components could retest and bounce off 0, so good chance of a bounce here, at lest ST
2008-06-10 20:59:32 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: next few days crucial
2008-06-10 20:59:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: SPX went below 0 line today
2008-06-10 21:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I have some errands to run...but please do continue...I will read the transcripts in the morning
2008-06-10 21:00:20 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: On McSum
2008-06-10 21:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-06-10 21:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: grrrrr....
2008-06-10 21:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-06-10 21:00:36 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: small point change on MCO
2008-06-10 21:00:37 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: you must be quite a chef, fib, you stirred the pot perfectly tonite-THX!
2008-06-10 21:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-06-10 21:01:15 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Yes, thanks!
2008-06-10 21:01:24 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Anyone want to take a look at TRIN? Don't really understand it yet.
2008-06-10 21:01:43 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Open 10, that is
2008-06-10 21:02:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes dd....get to that in a sec
2008-06-10 21:02:47 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: K
2008-06-10 21:03:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Re TM, ugalee, new mco lows, next resistance march lows. components on sell, MCSUM at 0, not looking good here
2008-06-10 21:04:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NYSE arms at .69, open at 1.03
2008-06-10 21:05:10 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What do you make of that?
2008-06-10 21:05:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: floor here continues to hold, so no big decline likely.....not overbought that is
2008-06-10 21:05:51 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: missed what fib had to say tonight...he was fairly bullish last Thurs. with a need for proof that more upside was possible in coming days...change of tone today?
2008-06-10 21:06:11 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Is a low arms significant TM?
2008-06-10 21:06:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: NASDAQ trin 1.66, open 10 at .93 ...... neutral
2008-06-10 21:06:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: It's the open 10 relationship to the arms that is important - I don't understand it
2008-06-10 21:07:00 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: fib usually says it is overbought when TRIN is low and oversold when TRIN is high
2008-06-10 21:07:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: jkw, yes, tends to show overbought on some level
2008-06-10 21:07:35 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Thank you tahiti and TM.
2008-06-10 21:07:49 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: tahiti..other technicians state the same about TRIN
2008-06-10 21:08:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: often good to look at moving average or open 10 trin to get more than a pinpoint read
2008-06-10 21:08:36 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: but, the next day price action in 2008 following high TRIN has translated into higher prices less than 50% of time
2008-06-10 21:08:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The relationship of the arms to the TRIN is important, but don't understand it really
2008-06-10 21:09:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: TM Trin 1.06 and open 10 at .97 -------- floor holding
2008-06-10 21:09:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: arms and trin are two names for the same thing
2008-06-10 21:09:44 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 8 day sma and 20day sma of the daily NYAD has been more useful to me last few mos. than most other data points...8day above zero line is impt to more bullish action ahead after a price advance
2008-06-10 21:10:16 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: esp if 20day sma of daily NYAD also resides above the zero line
2008-06-10 21:10:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: hiker, what are they reading now?
2008-06-10 21:10:52 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: below for 2.5 weeks or so
2008-06-10 21:11:14 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the turn back down was before the recent spike high in SPX
2008-06-10 21:11:17 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: hiker, charts?
2008-06-10 21:11:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So that is bear indication? correct?
2008-06-10 21:11:50 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: signaled the price advance was not likely to continue until 8day sma for daily NYAD moved back above zero, which is has not
2008-06-10 21:12:26 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: this is Frank Barbera method..he wrote a very long TA article about the 8 and 20sma for the daily NYAD
2008-06-10 21:12:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks, is there chart of this at HH?
2008-06-10 21:12:55 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: John Bollinger has told a group where I participate he likes Frank's TA work
2008-06-10 21:13:17 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: yes, TM..I have posted it most recently in the Friday chart thread at HH
2008-06-10 21:13:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks, I will check it out
2008-06-10 21:13:38 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I have done no mkt updates since two Friday's ago
2008-06-10 21:13:46 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I am on vacation now
2008-06-10 21:14:05 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: trading oil and some spec plays is all I am doing now
2008-06-10 21:14:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, so most recent...not that recent
2008-06-10 21:14:36 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I am looking at the daily NYAD chart now on my monitor..just have not posted the updates
2008-06-10 21:14:48 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Btw, given TM's TRIN readings, this is what I think Fib would say:
2008-06-10 21:14:54 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: NYSE trin at .69, open 10 at 1.03 - Overbought (should be "oversold")
2008-06-10 21:14:59 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: NASDAQ trin 1.66, open 10 at .93 - (bullish side of neutral)
2008-06-10 21:15:03 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: TM trin 1.06 and open 10 at .97 - (bearish side of "oversold")
2008-06-10 21:15:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Don't agree tahiti, but that ok
2008-06-10 21:16:01 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room:
2008-06-10 21:16:42 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: I thought the Open 10 more important than the TRIN, so those give different overbought and oversold.
2008-06-10 21:17:02 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Guess we should check with Fib...
2008-06-10 21:17:17 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: I was comparing TRIN to it's open-10
2008-06-10 21:17:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, I have renewed appreciation for Fib' ability to flip screens and type at same time.....but that about all folks......I am short and happy, and 90% in cash
2008-06-10 21:17:32 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes....
2008-06-10 21:17:36 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: < for Overbought
2008-06-10 21:17:40 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: > to Oversold
2008-06-10 21:17:45 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: ~= to Neutral
2008-06-10 21:18:03 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Not sure whether that is how Fib does it.
2008-06-10 21:18:05 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: one TA guy who has written widely and has subs..says the rally ahead should last until mid July..he is buying now expecting he does not want to chase strength later..will be interesting if he is proven correct
2008-06-10 21:18:47 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: what is Fib saying tonight? in general...
2008-06-10 21:18:57 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: He's somewhat bearish
2008-06-10 21:19:07 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: thanks
2008-06-10 21:19:22 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Yeah, ball in bear's court. Next couple days important...
2008-06-10 21:19:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Interesting here is that we are not hugely oversold as I see it, so not sure I buy the big rally.....at least now in next few days
2008-06-10 21:19:35 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: I got the impression that he was somewhat bearish but giving until we break MCO low points to put nail in coffin?
2008-06-10 21:19:38 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: and you DD...Hurst update?
2008-06-10 21:19:43 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Lot's of small point changes too
2008-06-10 21:19:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: The VIX is the most interesting in that regard
2008-06-10 21:20:15 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Hurst projection to 28, but also has just kissed back a broken up-trend line. Will send you chart
2008-06-10 21:20:33 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: And anyone else too, who wants
2008-06-10 21:20:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: We are in the window for the 2.52 wk low right now
2008-06-10 21:20:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: If you could send to me DD too, would appreciate
2008-06-10 21:20:54 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Yes....DD if possible.
2008-06-10 21:21:03 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: what in the next few weeks would make folks start to think the bottom is in? something simple or something more complex?
2008-06-10 21:21:10 [Message] doc -> Main Room: That is if the 40 wk low was Friday May18
2008-06-10 21:21:47 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: if price refuses to keep going down, then time will wear down the bears and the "bottom-in" idea may regain favor again
2008-06-10 21:22:07 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Interesting that we are also 20 wks out from the Jan "crash" lows
2008-06-10 21:22:15 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: yes, doc
2008-06-10 21:22:21 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Doc, I noticed that too
2008-06-10 21:22:59 [Message] doc -> Main Room: So if you allow for the Jan spike low to be the 20wk low late, than we are right on target for the 40 wk low now
2008-06-10 21:23:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I could get bullish with some deep MCO readings, if we get them. Also a top looking VIX.....that is why DD's vix work so interesting
2008-06-10 21:23:47 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Either way, we should see a bounce by tomorrow or Thursday and the strength of that bounce will be very telling
2008-06-10 21:23:57 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Hiker.....are you bearish and looking for a bottom soon? or bottom more later?
2008-06-10 21:23:59 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: doc - the TA guy that thinks we should find a bottom here sometime soon seems to use time cycles
2008-06-10 21:24:37 [Message] doc -> Main Room: hiker, hurst cycles have been very tricky over the last several months
2008-06-10 21:24:52 [Message] doc -> Main Room: likely overcome by news driven changes
2008-06-10 21:24:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Agree doc, the next bounce will be a tell
2008-06-10 21:24:57 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: jkw..I personally favor a capitulation of some kind before we find the bottom, and am not certain Friday qualifies..though that day may have been IT followed by this week's action
2008-06-10 21:25:16 [Message] doc -> Main Room: magnitude of which has been high due to the high VIX and ATR
2008-06-10 21:25:38 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I agree, looking for capitulation. more bullish than drip, drip, drip. Not good for Hurst cycles though (bullish count).
2008-06-10 21:25:57 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Thanks hiker
2008-06-10 21:26:29 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: i like the 8day and 20sma of the daily NYAD for measuring what represents capitulation relative to historic levels of those two MA's
2008-06-10 21:27:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I have not seen as well, anything that looks like capitulation....so as fib would say, sit on the hands
2008-06-10 21:27:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So what do 8 and 20 say re capitulation? Hiker?
2008-06-10 21:28:07 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: best for you to look at the 18 mo. chart data so you can get a feel for how low these MA's move relative to current values
2008-06-10 21:28:16 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: see the thread at HH
2008-06-10 21:28:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k, will do that
2008-06-10 21:28:39 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: HH?
2008-06-10 21:28:45 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: some many weeks ago, I linked Frank Barbera's article detailing how he uses this data
2008-06-10 21:28:47 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: oh, hiker habitat
2008-06-10 21:29:11 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: yes, HereIAm..see you all later..thanks for all..GN
2008-06-10 21:29:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, I would like to read that.....thanks
2008-06-10 21:29:26 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: I think we are at least a couple of days away from a good tradable bottom
2008-06-10 21:29:44 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: TM - the article link is in one of those daily chart threads....sorry it is buried
2008-06-10 21:29:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, time to say GN....need to walk with dog
2008-06-10 21:29:51 [Message] doc -> Main Room: .618 retrace on the Dow holding so far
2008-06-10 21:30:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: night all
2008-06-10 21:30:10 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: night
2008-06-10 21:30:13 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: Thanx TM
2008-06-10 21:30:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks to all for great help and participation
2008-06-10 21:30:52 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: Thanks TM & DD
2008-06-10 21:31:09 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I also have seen multi month rising trend lines on the volume mco holding except for the nasdaq today
2008-06-10 21:31:43 [Message] doc -> Main Room: next few days are crucial, IMHO
2008-06-10 21:40:18 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: great info. doc..thanks much



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