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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-05-05 16:00:03 fib1618: good day
2016-05-05 16:00:09 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-05 16:02:28 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2016-05-05 16:05:07 fib1618: OK...then lets get SC up and see what we have to work with today
2016-05-05 16:06:01 fib1618: after moving to below the April lows on Tuesday
2016-05-05 16:06:17 fib1618: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has continued lower
2016-05-05 16:06:38 fib1618: coming in today with a small point change with a reading of -61
2016-05-05 16:07:04 fib1618: we also see that the 10% Trend has now moved below its zero line now
2016-05-05 16:07:53 fib1618: and the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now a day away from challenging its +750 natural support level
2016-05-05 16:08:22 fib1618: during this two day extension to the downside in the CO MCO
2016-05-05 16:08:30 fib1618: prices in the NYA have consolidated
2016-05-05 16:09:02 fib1618: and we now have to decide if this a bottoming process or a pause while the market waits for more information
2016-05-05 16:09:30 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:09:38 fib1618: and we finally made it to below the April lows today
2016-05-05 16:09:54 fib1618: though by a 1 point margin
2016-05-05 16:09:56 fib1618: AND
2016-05-05 16:10:05 fib1618: we also had a small point change in the MCO here as well
2016-05-05 16:10:25 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2016-05-05 16:10:44 fib1618: unlike the CO MCO components
2016-05-05 16:10:52 fib1618: both the 10% and 5% components remain above their zero lines
2016-05-05 16:11:31 fib1618: so we see that the interest rate sensitive issues that make up the NYA are back to out performing the common stocks that are traded on the exchange
2016-05-05 16:12:01 fib1618: this would also indicate that the market remains bullish on debt instruments at this time
2016-05-05 16:12:13 fib1618: and that interest rates are likely to remain soft to moving lower
2016-05-05 16:12:21 fib1618: let me take a quick look at the TNX
2016-05-05 16:13:25 fib1618: and we see there that the yield on 10 year note has resumed its downside trend after the rogue wave we saw in the middle of last month
2016-05-05 16:13:37 fib1618: with this information
2016-05-05 16:13:57 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that tomorrow's jobs numbers are likely to be weak
2016-05-05 16:14:24 fib1618: and pretty much echo what I've seeing here in the trenches for the last several months
2016-05-05 16:14:43 fib1618: back to the TNX yield for a moment
2016-05-05 16:15:16 fib1618: and we can also see that we're currently trading within a symmetrical triangle configuration on the daily chart since the February lows
2016-05-05 16:15:50 fib1618: with support coming in looks like we settled right on the support line today with a yield of 1.75%
2016-05-05 16:16:36 fib1618: always fascinating how the market does this as we go into economic data that is sure to have a weight with traders
2016-05-05 16:16:55 fib1618: let me figure the downside target on any break down we may see near term
2016-05-05 16:17:27 fib1618: and it looks like the downside target is around 1.50%
2016-05-05 16:17:49 fib1618: with the all time lows around 1.3% if my memory serves me
2016-05-05 16:17:51 fib1618: let me check
2016-05-05 16:18:42 fib1618: 1.40%
2016-05-05 16:18:58 fib1618: back in the summer of 2012
2016-05-05 16:19:13 fib1618: near term support for a challenge of that level is at 1.60%
2016-05-05 16:19:20 fib1618: so lots going on here in this area
2016-05-05 16:19:46 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:19:51 fib1618: and it continued to move lower as well
2016-05-05 16:20:06 fib1618: finishing today with a reading of -60
2016-05-05 16:20:18 fib1618: rather rare to see readings below -50 here
2016-05-05 16:20:26 fib1618: so a technical bounce is very likely near term
2016-05-05 16:21:04 fib1618: especially since we have the 5% Trend now joining the 10% below its zero line today
2016-05-05 16:21:18 fib1618: so far then
2016-05-05 16:21:27 fib1618: we're back in sync again
2016-05-05 16:21:37 fib1618: with our taking out the April MCO lows
2016-05-05 16:21:47 fib1618: we'll see what the mega caps look like in a moment
2016-05-05 16:21:52 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:22:10 fib1618: and here we finally saw a bounce today
2016-05-05 16:22:30 fib1618: after Wednesday's reading of -89
2016-05-05 16:22:40 fib1618: which is deeply "oversold" territory
2016-05-05 16:22:48 fib1618: speaking of which
2016-05-05 16:23:01 fib1618: ISEE option figures have been very low all this week
2016-05-05 16:23:12 fib1618: as many speculators are loading up on puts
2016-05-05 16:23:33 fib1618: and we all know what tends to happen with these same folks...the market burns them
2016-05-05 16:24:04 fib1618: NDX prices are holding firm at our downside target of 4300
2016-05-05 16:24:39 fib1618: so here it looks like a bottom is in for the current sell off
2016-05-05 16:25:15 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:25:28 fib1618: and here we got our lower low compared with back in April
2016-05-05 16:25:50 fib1618: with a small point change to boot
2016-05-05 16:26:15 fib1618: the 10% Trend is also playing tag with its zero line
2016-05-05 16:26:33 fib1618: and we usually see some sort of technical bounce when this happens
2016-05-05 16:27:10 fib1618: with prices in the SPX coming within 6 points of reaching our downside target of 2040.
2016-05-05 16:27:36 fib1618: so maybe a sell off to start the day to hit 2040 and then finish strong into the close on Friday?
2016-05-05 16:28:06 fib1618: lower low as well in the OEX breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:28:22 fib1618: and with the Dow breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:28:44 fib1618: as with the MID and SML breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:29:12 fib1618: and the total market MCO makes is unanimous
2016-05-05 16:29:18 fib1618: so...
2016-05-05 16:29:27 fib1618: we got what we were hoping for on Tuesday
2016-05-05 16:30:01 fib1618: that we maybe get some continued weakness on Wednesday to get the MCO's in sync
2016-05-05 16:30:29 fib1618: with Thursday showing some stabilization going into Friday's jobs numbers
2016-05-05 16:31:33 fib1618: keeping an eye on the April pullback lows in all of the breadth MCSUM's will be important for the near term
2016-05-05 16:31:59 fib1618: with a break of these lows suggesting further weakness to continue into May OPEX
2016-05-05 16:32:23 fib1618: let me check the BETS moment
2016-05-05 16:33:34 fib1618: +45
2016-05-05 16:33:44 fib1618: so no change there since Tuesday
2016-05-05 16:33:59 fib1618: "accumulate with a bullish bias"
2016-05-05 16:34:06 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2016-05-05 16:35:01 fib1618: looks like we have a short term sell signal now in the XLY MCO and its components
2016-05-05 16:35:22 fib1618: as the XLY breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +500 level today
2016-05-05 16:36:03 fib1618: and with a break of the April lows in the XLY MCO this past week
2016-05-05 16:36:32 fib1618: this now allows prices to retrace a bit deeper than our initial target of $78 to around $76
2016-05-05 16:37:01 fib1618: looking at the price chart itself
2016-05-05 16:37:12 fib1618: and we have the look of a rounding top formation working here
2016-05-05 16:37:32 fib1618: and along with the internals showing good cadence on the sell side
2016-05-05 16:38:03 fib1618: our hold signal from last week would turn into a sell if we broke below $78
2016-05-05 16:38:44 fib1618: interesting to also note
2016-05-05 16:39:10 fib1618: is that we triggered a parabolic SAR sell signal today as well
2016-05-05 16:39:25 fib1618: so it might be time to take some money off the table there
2016-05-05 16:39:53 fib1618: small point change today in the XLP breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:40:29 fib1618: with a move above the late March highs needed for prices to move back into new all time high territory
2016-05-05 16:41:00 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO components remain elevated
2016-05-05 16:41:43 fib1618: so accumulation in this basket of issues remains in effect
2016-05-05 16:42:16 fib1618: we continued to see a hard sell off in the XLE breadth MCO this past week
2016-05-05 16:42:47 fib1618: as the 10% Trend also moving below its zero line as well
2016-05-05 16:43:28 fib1618: we had a weak rally today which doesn't inspire much in the way of a bullish turning point
2016-05-05 16:44:30 fib1618: while putting ruler to monitor and we see that the last two days of price action is holding right at the rising bottoms line from the February lows
2016-05-05 16:45:05 fib1618: overall, with the MCO negative, and the XLE breadth MCSUM positive, we remain in a corrective sequence
2016-05-05 16:45:29 fib1618: so let's continue to hold there with key support at the $60
2016-05-05 16:46:17 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO continues to look pretty good here
2016-05-05 16:46:39 fib1618: while prices are currently hugging their rising bottoms line from the February lows
2016-05-05 16:47:23 fib1618: both of the XLF breadth MCO components remain above their zero lines
2016-05-05 16:47:48 fib1618: and with near term bullish divergence currently
2016-05-05 16:47:56 fib1618: let's look for this sector to rally near term
2016-05-05 16:48:24 fib1618: strike that
2016-05-05 16:48:30 fib1618: there is no divergence
2016-05-05 16:48:41 fib1618: was looking at the wrong chart
2016-05-05 16:49:04 fib1618: we have a lower low in the XLF breadth MCO short term
2016-05-05 16:49:37 fib1618: but the amplitude of selling is lessening than it was back in early April
2016-05-05 16:49:59 fib1618: so let's look for a bounce near term off of both trendline and snapback horizontal pattern support
2016-05-05 16:50:39 fib1618: moving to the XLV breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:50:49 fib1618: and here we seem to have a bit of near term problem
2016-05-05 16:51:16 fib1618: with it needing to move above the blip resistance point that we saw on Monday to confirm a turn around
2016-05-05 16:51:26 fib1618: while the 10% Trend has now snapped back to its zero line
2016-05-05 16:51:32 fib1618: taken together
2016-05-05 16:51:56 fib1618: it would appear that some additional weakness is likely before we'll be able to turn around successfully
2016-05-05 16:52:43 fib1618: and with the price structure breaking below the rising trendline from the February lows on Wednesday
2016-05-05 16:52:49 fib1618: let's look for the current pullback to continue
2016-05-05 16:53:10 fib1618: with ultimate support coming around the $67 level
2016-05-05 16:53:44 fib1618: small point change in the XLI breadth MCO
2016-05-05 16:54:09 fib1618: with an "oversold" -69 reading
2016-05-05 16:54:34 fib1618: and with the XLI MCO 10% Trend testing its zero line
2016-05-05 16:55:00 fib1618: along with the XLI breadth MCSUM testing both horizontal pattern support and the +1000 level
2016-05-05 16:55:16 fib1618: one would think that a bounce attempt should be seen by Monday
2016-05-05 16:55:49 fib1618: with today's inside range day suggests and up close on Friday
2016-05-05 16:56:24 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO is now deeply "oversold" with a -98 reading
2016-05-05 16:56:36 fib1618: so a reflex rally of some kind is indicated near term
2016-05-05 16:57:31 fib1618: with right angle triangle support for the XLB price index coming in at the $45 level
2016-05-05 16:58:25 fib1618: which also looks like the 4th wave of one lesser degree for those Elliotticians out there
2016-05-05 16:59:16 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO is also deeply "oversold" currently with a reading of -95
2016-05-05 16:59:44 fib1618: while prices have found current support at their downside target from last week at the $42 level
2016-05-05 17:00:16 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO looks washed out now...that's the good news
2016-05-05 17:00:45 fib1618: the bad news is that it's going to take a couple of weeks now to construct a tradable bottom for the buyers
2016-05-05 17:00:58 fib1618: short term
2016-05-05 17:01:15 fib1618: let's watch the interplay at the +500 level in the XLK breadth MCSUM
2016-05-05 17:01:42 fib1618: though with the latest pick up in the downside gap expansion
2016-05-05 17:01:53 fib1618: doesn't really bode well for a bounce at that level
2016-05-05 17:02:14 fib1618: and as we expected 2 weeks ago
2016-05-05 17:02:28 fib1618: the XLU was able to move back to its all time highs
2016-05-05 17:02:46 fib1618: but this included a nasty looking reversal price bar today
2016-05-05 17:03:01 fib1618: with no volume expansion
2016-05-05 17:03:08 fib1618: so we'll call it a rally failure for now
2016-05-05 17:03:28 fib1618: with the expectation of a this being a regrouping day
2016-05-05 17:03:37 fib1618: before a break to new all time price highs is actually seen
2016-05-05 17:03:47 fib1618: maybe with the breakdown in yields with the TNX?
2016-05-05 17:03:56 fib1618: sounds reasonable
2016-05-05 17:03:59 fib1618: so...
2016-05-05 17:04:22 fib1618: the marketplace has now relived all of its short term "overbought" condition of the last couple of months as measured by the MCO's
2016-05-05 17:04:55 fib1618: and, with the exception of the XLF breadth MCO, we are now back in sync as the market attempts to create a tradable bottom
2016-05-05 17:05:02 fib1618: unfortunately for the bulls
2016-05-05 17:05:33 fib1618: we have enough deeply "oversold" readings now where its likely that we're going to need additional time to set a new platform
2016-05-05 17:05:43 fib1618: but at the same time
2016-05-05 17:06:32 fib1618: these deeply "oversold" readings usually mean that we're in the process of making very important longer term lows on the longer term time scale
2016-05-05 17:07:27 fib1618: especially if we start to see the Open 10's get toward the 1.20 level
2016-05-05 17:07:36 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are looking
2016-05-05 17:08:12 fib1618: no climactic activity there as yet
2016-05-05 17:08:33 fib1618: but we are seeing "oversold" readings now in the OEX, Dow and NDX STVO's
2016-05-05 17:09:07 fib1618: but with the MCO readings pushing below -60
2016-05-05 17:09:44 fib1618: we're now going to have to wait until the VTO's move to "oversold" before we have a low from where prices can, once again, begin to trend to the upside
2016-05-05 17:09:56 fib1618: for now...we're stuck in a trading range
2016-05-05 17:10:17 fib1618: which is great for day traders and those who have a near term trading style
2016-05-05 17:10:49 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.25
2016-05-05 17:11:04 fib1618: Open 10 at...oh...hello
2016-05-05 17:11:06 fib1618: 1.19!
2016-05-05 17:11:19 fib1618: well...we got what we wanted there
2016-05-05 17:11:51 fib1618: with 10,200 still out there as an objective for the NYA index
2016-05-05 17:12:10 fib1618: also remember we had a 1.98 TRIN reading on Tuesday in the NYSE
2016-05-05 17:12:26 fib1618: but with the crosscurrents
2016-05-05 17:12:48 fib1618: a high level price consolidation is least for now
2016-05-05 17:12:52 fib1618: which means
2016-05-05 17:13:10 fib1618: we're also setting a price floor now for this same consolidation
2016-05-05 17:13:27 fib1618: what the heck?
2016-05-05 17:13:32 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .67!
2016-05-05 17:13:46 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.09
2016-05-05 17:14:03 fib1618: maybe some buying in the issues that sold off hard this past week or two?
2016-05-05 17:14:09 fib1618: like Apple?
2016-05-05 17:14:26 fib1618: TM TRIN at .90
2016-05-05 17:14:38 fib1618: with an Open 10 at 1.18
2016-05-05 17:14:46 fib1618: sooo...
2016-05-05 17:14:54 fib1618: the downside from here appears to be very limited
2016-05-05 17:15:22 fib1618: with the best of all technical worlds of meeting our downside price targets by Monday
2016-05-05 17:15:55 fib1618: and then we rally for a couple of days after that to relieve our "oversold" conditions
2016-05-05 17:16:04 fib1618: the "go to" sector
2016-05-05 17:16:08 fib1618: based on the data
2016-05-05 17:16:15 fib1618: is with the XLF
2016-05-05 17:16:38 fib1618: with the XLY and XLE more in the neutral zone for now
2016-05-05 17:16:56 fib1618: and the XLP and XLU look to also have some bullish potential here
2016-05-05 17:17:08 fib1618: while the rest of the sectors look corrective at best
2016-05-05 17:17:22 fib1618: so with the BETS standing pat at +45
2016-05-05 17:17:34 fib1618: let's continue to be friendly toward the market
2016-05-05 17:17:46 fib1618: while keeping a close eye on sector rotation
2016-05-05 17:18:35 fib1618: with the new blueprint suggesting that this pause to refresh to finish up in another 10 trading days
2016-05-05 17:19:00 fib1618: let me take a quick look at sentiment
2016-05-05 17:20:21 fib1618: keeping in mind that any reading at 80 or below in ISEE usually corresponds with important price lows
2016-05-05 17:21:11 fib1618: from last Friday the readings have been: 60, 77, 59, 64, and 60
2016-05-05 17:21:28 fib1618: so we're "hammering" out a low here
2016-05-05 17:22:36 fib1618: Mark's sentiment readings last weekend were 29% bulls and 62% bears
2016-05-05 17:22:47 fib1618: so, sentiment wise
2016-05-05 17:22:55 fib1618: what was a problem 2 weeks ago
2016-05-05 17:22:59 fib1618: is no longer one now as far as sentiment is concerned
2016-05-05 17:23:14 fib1618: we got traders pretty beared up now
2016-05-05 17:23:33 fib1618: we also have to remember
2016-05-05 17:23:45 fib1618: that we are at the top of the longer term trading range going back to last spring
2016-05-05 17:24:36 fib1618: so much of this could be a simple case of backing and filling in order to reset things before making an attempt to breakout of this longer term consolidation
2016-05-05 17:24:43 fib1618: but for now...
2016-05-05 17:25:00 fib1618: we seem to making an important price bottom
2016-05-05 17:25:34 fib1618: and we'll see if our blueprint is on target or not as we move along
2016-05-05 17:25:36 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-05 17:26:38 fib1618: a quick look at the asset classes and we'll call it a day
2016-05-05 17:27:34 fib1618: gold looks like its near completion of some snapback action
2016-05-05 17:27:54 fib1618: though we did reach our $1300 upside target given in January
2016-05-05 17:28:07 fib1618: we'll need a new thrust now to get beyond that
2016-05-05 17:28:45 fib1618: the CRB is trapped between overhead resistance at it 200 day EMA
2016-05-05 17:28:50 fib1618: and support at the 20 day EMA
2016-05-05 17:29:12 fib1618: looks like a simple back and fill in an attempt to reload for a upside breakout
2016-05-05 17:29:49 fib1618: and debt remains bullish
2016-05-05 17:30:19 fib1618: let me check what consensus number is for tomorrow
2016-05-05 17:31:07 fib1618: 205,000
2016-05-05 17:31:34 fib1618: for some reason...a little voice is telling me 185,000
2016-05-05 17:31:38 fib1618: but what do I know?
2016-05-05 17:31:50 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-05 17:31:55 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-05 17:32:02 fib1618: everyone have a terrific weekend
2016-05-05 17:32:11 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2016-05-05 17:32:13 fib1618: good night

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