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Posts: 4,726
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-05-05 15:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-05-05 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-05-05 16:00:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very well, thanks
2011-05-05 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2011-05-05 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's first look at the NYAD combo chart -
2011-05-05 16:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line has now settled on the 19 day EMA today
2011-05-05 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYAD breadth MCO has now snapped back to its rising bottoms line
2011-05-05 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the MCSUM has now put in a lower high
2011-05-05 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where we now have enough evidence where "trend divergence" is apparent
2011-05-05 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is...higher highs in the A/D line with a lower high in the MCSUM
2011-05-05 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have been talking about for sometime now, this is the structure of a maturing marketplace
2011-05-05 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fortunately for the bulls, we're supporting a rather high number - +665 - so it is still a bit difficult for the bears to develop any kind of trend to the current structure
2011-05-05 16:09:55 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: quick question about mcsum structure?
2011-05-05 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure...go
2011-05-05 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone else can take a peak at the NAAD in the meantime -
2011-05-05 16:11:20 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yesterday, when looking, I noted here that while mcsum pulled back, it was what looked like a "tight" pullback, above the previous low, and while I read it as consolidation with the previous hi, the small change on the McSum lead me to believe that today would rally past that. What did I miss?
2011-05-05 16:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the first thing is that the postings of the MCSUM come from the daily readings of the MCO
2011-05-05 16:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we looked at the internals on Tuesday we had the indication that a bounce was probable
2011-05-05 16:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we later looked at the STVO's
2011-05-05 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they suggested that we needed a day or so of shake out
2011-05-05 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got that...and everything was fine
2011-05-05 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then yesterday
2011-05-05 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had another indication, and a stronger one at that, that we would bounce today
2011-05-05 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the point being that when an expectation doesn't occur, it tells us just as much as it does when things turn out to what we were looking for
2011-05-05 16:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far your question
2011-05-05 16:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that close posting of the MCSUM was the MCO moving down and through its zero line
2011-05-05 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our focus then becomes will the MCO bounce off this zero line giving us what you expected of a rally or not
2011-05-05 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market had other ideas and continued to sell off even more
2011-05-05 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess what I'm trying to say is
2011-05-05 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your expectation was OK...but the market didn't oblige
2011-05-05 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2011-05-05 16:16:24 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol - you got that right...
2011-05-05 16:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now changes things a bit
2011-05-05 16:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it happens
2011-05-05 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the holy grail stuff
2011-05-05 16:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it does give us many advantages that other analysts don't have
2011-05-05 16:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we really never know when money is actually going to move, and in this case, how
2011-05-05 16:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last week or so has been a tough one for those who were long commodities
2011-05-05 16:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it started with Silver margins being raised last Friday
2011-05-05 16:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that kick started the selling through out the asset classes as traders either had to put up or sell
2011-05-05 16:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that selling snowballed and technical sell signals were then given for those who "put up"
2011-05-05 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from where other areas of investment had to be liquidated to cover these same losses
2011-05-05 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for whatever the beauty of the A/D data can provide
2011-05-05 16:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can't stop what can't be stopped
2011-05-05 16:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will cushion the blow
2011-05-05 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I hope to touch on many things let's move on
2011-05-05 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NAAD
2011-05-05 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the NAAD line has now snapped back to its 1% Trend (200 day EMA)
2011-05-05 16:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains locked in its consolidation
2011-05-05 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls, this recent failure of not moving to higher highs is becoming a real problem moving forward
2011-05-05 16:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if I remember correctly
2011-05-05 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw this starting to break down on Tuesday with the NASDAQ breadth MCO giving us a sell signal
2011-05-05 16:22:18 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: sell = breaking 0?
2011-05-05 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a result of this failure, the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM wasn't able to penetrate above its declining tops line highlighted on the chart
2011-05-05 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back below its zero line again
2011-05-05 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sell was we had both the oscillator, and its components, closed below their zero lines
2011-05-05 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we had a mix between these two areas on many of the other charts
2011-05-05 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM moving below zero
2011-05-05 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also tells us that the 19 day EMA has now crossed below its 39 day EMA as we can see on the chart
2011-05-05 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving up the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-05-05 16:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now challenging the prior lows of April
2011-05-05 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more importantly
2011-05-05 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the bears currently have control of the action here
2011-05-05 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neither side has been able to keep this same control for more than a week at a time since Japan
2011-05-05 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know this by the structure of the MCO having moved without any kind of texture to the pattern
2011-05-05 16:26:24 [Message] darris -> Chat: fib_1618, when time permits, and if you find it worthy of discussion, could you comment on the outside reversal week in SPX cash price that is forming? One more day to go though. thanks
2011-05-05 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard for me to comment on something that hasn't happened
2011-05-05 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it did...
2011-05-05 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2011-05-05 16:27:25 [Message] darris -> Chat: Well, that is the question, What if ?? LOL
2011-05-05 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't you know...
2011-05-05 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't deal in "what if's"...I only deal in "what is"
2011-05-05 16:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...because of the high numbers in the SPX MCSUM's
2011-05-05 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely any outside range would be that of part of a consolidation
2011-05-05 16:28:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: Hey, nothing in this game is 100%. I have seen the market fall apart the next week, and power up to new highs. Just as of today, it looks pretty with little tails on both ends.
2011-05-05 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: understood
2011-05-05 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I believe that your searching for that infamous title of a "key reversal" or not...right?
2011-05-05 16:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to which I would say...
2011-05-05 16:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could turn out to be...but it's too early to really know
2011-05-05 16:30:27 [Message] darris -> Chat: I always like to be reminded if you think the "potential" is there. That is all. I usually do not see the forest due to the trees during the week. thanks
2011-05-05 16:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I usually keep your nose to the ground
2011-05-05 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as you know
2011-05-05 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are several ingredients that must be present for a "key" reversal
2011-05-05 16:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might get the volume
2011-05-05 16:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you could be
2011-05-05 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: open interest would be correct
2011-05-05 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new contract highs would another
2011-05-05 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCSUM's say "not so fast"
2011-05-05 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2011-05-05 16:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money rotates between the asset classes in a specific way
2011-05-05 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they go from debt...and then finally into equities
2011-05-05 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so how is debt doing this week?
2011-05-05 16:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look at TLT
2011-05-05 16:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2011-05-05 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: golly...look at that
2011-05-05 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its having a pretty good week
2011-05-05 16:33:52 [Message] darris -> Chat: I would say looking at the 10 year and 30 year notes, they have been doing rather well.
2011-05-05 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now you know where all of that commodity money is going to
2011-05-05 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: textbook
2011-05-05 16:34:39 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: reits are right next door, aren't they?
2011-05-05 16:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2011-05-05 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how they're doing
2011-05-05 16:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pulling back with the rest of the market
2011-05-05 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are stocks
2011-05-05 16:35:25 [Message] darris -> Chat: It has been a very big week for prices. Gold is now down as much as 115 off the high Sunday night. Silver maybe 12, Oil close to 17. SPX ES futures contract almost 50 today, and same with the TF RUT-2000 futures contract (50) that is a lot of action
2011-05-05 16:35:25 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: i know... they'll turn
2011-05-05 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they will get caught up in any equity selling
2011-05-05 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the scary thing is
2011-05-05 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have traders who have been wrong for so many months confident in trying to pick a spot to go long in the metals
2011-05-05 16:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember my comments this past weekend on the breadth data?
2011-05-05 16:37:00 [Message] darris -> Chat: I do not
2011-05-05 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "The precious metals A/D lines, however, remain cautious with both silver and gold extending their parabolic gains. In fact, gold looks to be at an similar acceleration point as silver was back in February when it was trading at around $28.00. The continued cautious nature of the gold bugs at this juncture should be respected for what it may imply for the precious metals arena overall - that is - a blow-off stage."
2011-05-05 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: la-de-da
2011-05-05 16:38:10 [Message] darris -> Chat: OK, yes, I remember that, and you said it several times, I think this week here and there
2011-05-05 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup
2011-05-05 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and parabolic patterns are always accidents waiting to happen
2011-05-05 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...that's the past
2011-05-05 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be interesting to see how the A/D lines look this week given that the PM stocks are getting absolutely clobbered
2011-05-05 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moves of 7-10% minimally
2011-05-05 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this will present some new opportunities soon enough
2011-05-05 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to wait for the dust to clear
2011-05-05 16:40:15 [Message] darris -> Chat: 1 51 3 51 22 33 2 52
2011-05-05 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hike!
2011-05-05 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what are the numbers?
2011-05-05 16:40:49 [Message] darris -> Chat: Sorry for that. it is the PM breadth so far this week, but I did not get it edited
2011-05-05 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoa
2011-05-05 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you kidding?
2011-05-05 16:41:20 [Message] darris -> Chat: 1-51, 3-51, 22-33, 2-52
2011-05-05 16:41:58 [Message] darris -> Chat: My data is Randy's components but from MSN, so final numbers from Randy will be close
2011-05-05 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...we'll see how they look tomorrow
2011-05-05 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-05 16:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-05-05 16:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an important day tomorrow for the NASDAQ
2011-05-05 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are at points in the technicals where any breakdown will produce something significant in the price numbers
2011-05-05 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know
2011-05-05 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is kinda of losing its patience in the jobs area
2011-05-05 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have to keep in mind
2011-05-05 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that summer hiring has started and really gets into gear next week
2011-05-05 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the numbers should start to firm
2011-05-05 16:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and May's numbers should reflect that
2011-05-05 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that didn't much good back in 2003 or was it 2004?
2011-05-05 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we came out with the May numbers and it put a lid on the rally from the invasion lows
2011-05-05 16:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must had been 2003
2011-05-05 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has that feeling to it right now
2011-05-05 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's go to DP and see what we have to work with tonight
2011-05-05 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the NASDAQ breadth MCO, the CO NYSE breadth MCO is also testing its April lows
2011-05-05 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we feared on Tuesday, we weren't able to move above the important +500 level on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM because of it
2011-05-05 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we start then to accelerate lower tomorrow
2011-05-05 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds would be quite high that we're going to try again to get to the zero line
2011-05-05 16:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on a technical basis
2011-05-05 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now challenging the mini divergent lows to the MCO pattern
2011-05-05 16:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 5% component is now at its zero line
2011-05-05 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should, once again, get a bounce here
2011-05-05 16:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we don't....
2011-05-05 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not good news for the bulls
2011-05-05 16:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would imply that a change in the rhythm is going on
2011-05-05 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would probably go on for much of the month of May
2011-05-05 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to keep in mind here
2011-05-05 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if we do move below the April lows
2011-05-05 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then have triggered bear divergence between the MCO and MCSUM against price
2011-05-05 16:50:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: did we go too high for an irregular flat, in your opinion?
2011-05-05 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too high?
2011-05-05 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the common?
2011-05-05 16:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh..sorry
2011-05-05 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know what you're saying
2011-05-05 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my brain though decided to take a quick vacation
2011-05-05 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me moment
2011-05-05 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved 50 points above the target
2011-05-05 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug
2011-05-05 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be ending diagonal
2011-05-05 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for next week
2011-05-05 16:53:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: structure and the dollar have me considering it
2011-05-05 16:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I need to see more information before I can make a educated guess
2011-05-05 16:53:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-05 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...I heard the dollar finally moved higher today
2011-05-05 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...what a day!
2011-05-05 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it closed right on the 20 day EMA
2011-05-05 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an important day there as well coming up
2011-05-05 16:55:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hard for me to believe it will be more than an ABC-but I'll remain open minded
2011-05-05 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the angle of descent really doesn't indicate a bottom as yet in the dollar...just a reflex
2011-05-05 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a short covering rally
2011-05-05 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably the tail wagging the dog
2011-05-05 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the metals sold off so much that the dollar "had to" go higher
2011-05-05 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tricky
2011-05-05 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO remains in a better position here
2011-05-05 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...I wonder
2011-05-05 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2011-05-05 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...never mind
2011-05-05 16:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was looking at the April structure on Fib retracements
2011-05-05 16:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing there either
2011-05-05 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO is now testing its April lows
2011-05-05 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now in a precarious situation there
2011-05-05 16:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our taking out the divergent lows of mid month
2011-05-05 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems the NASDAQ holds the key to the fortunes of both sides here
2011-05-05 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would concentrate on that exchange tomorrow
2011-05-05 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...still
2011-05-05 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart
2011-05-05 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still holding snapback support here
2011-05-05 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM now forming a symmetrical triangle
2011-05-05 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has now taken out its divergent lows
2011-05-05 17:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and an outside range day on the price pattern suggesting an up close on Friday
2011-05-05 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NDX components still holding on to their correction indication
2011-05-05 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2011-05-05 17:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I'm going through these charts
2011-05-05 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it seems that we've gone too far too fast here and we might be seeing a hard reversal here
2011-05-05 17:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO component are suggesting another bounce attempt higher tomorrow
2011-05-05 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here also we have met the technical expectation of a simple snapback in the SPX price chart
2011-05-05 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately for the bulls...the SPX breadth MCSUM remains fairly high here
2011-05-05 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if anything...we should consolidate here for a couple of days
2011-05-05 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the news is soooo disappointing that we get swamped
2011-05-05 17:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting juncture
2011-05-05 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX stocks finally got hit today
2011-05-05 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and drove the OEX breadth MCO back below its zero line
2011-05-05 17:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a cross over sell in the components
2011-05-05 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both remain above their zero lines meaning we're only correcting
2011-05-05 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow got really hammered today
2011-05-05 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even the safety of the cream stocks finally did some catch up with the rest of the market today
2011-05-05 17:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes that could indicate some capitation
2011-05-05 17:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: studying the moment
2011-05-05 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO is now testing its divergent April lows
2011-05-05 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with its price pattern snapback going a bit to far for it be comfortable for the bulls
2011-05-05 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2011-05-05 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we take out the April lows in the MCO
2011-05-05 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only have the potential of bearish divergences on those where we see lower highs on the MCO
2011-05-05 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move below these lows though would be that trigger
2011-05-05 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will change our battle plan a bit from bull to neutral
2011-05-05 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2011-05-05 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've slightly taken out the divergent lows there
2011-05-05 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO is also testing its divergent lows of April
2011-05-05 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we haven't broken them as yet
2011-05-05 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% component again suggesting a bounce higher by the close tomorrow
2011-05-05 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-05 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've pretty much lost any bullish momentum we had at the end of last week
2011-05-05 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're starting to get a mixed picture of what the near term pattern might turn out to be
2011-05-05 17:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we have been moving higher for over 9 months now
2011-05-05 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that a pause to refresh is sorely needed
2011-05-05 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-05-05 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the high amount of liquidity has made past forecasts of this type comical in their expectations
2011-05-05 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we need a day or so to see what the market wants to do here
2011-05-05 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again...just like the last two months
2011-05-05 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're settling the debate with the jobs numbers
2011-05-05 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: March was neutral
2011-05-05 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: April was fine
2011-05-05 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who knows what will happen this could go either way
2011-05-05 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, the important thing to remember is
2011-05-05 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even if we break pattern support
2011-05-05 17:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not going to be able to TREND lower at this juncture
2011-05-05 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quickly going through the sector charts
2011-05-05 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM had trouble moving above the +750 level
2011-05-05 17:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no breakdown as yet in the MCO
2011-05-05 17:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP finally got hit today
2011-05-05 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLP breadth MCSUM so high
2011-05-05 17:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation now is for the XLP breadth MCO to stay below the zero line for a while to relieve these same "overbought" extremes
2011-05-05 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a small technical breakdown for the XLE
2011-05-05 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also broke the uptrend today
2011-05-05 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO looks like it's having a heart attack
2011-05-05 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like now that we're going to go for a zero line test on the XLE breadth MCSUM
2011-05-05 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the breakdown
2011-05-05 17:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a possible move all the way down to the -250 level
2011-05-05 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM couldn't get above the +250 level
2011-05-05 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be cautious there
2011-05-05 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO, however, continues to maintain a bottoms above bottoms structure
2011-05-05 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLV continues to look a like a pattern that's due for a pause
2011-05-05 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much everything got hit today
2011-05-05 17:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM looks weak and is about to break support
2011-05-05 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO took out its April lows today
2011-05-05 17:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the price pattern should show a sideways consolidation for the next couple of weeks
2011-05-05 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the lower end is around 36.25
2011-05-05 17:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: upper end the recent double top
2011-05-05 17:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...that's a classic double top there
2011-05-05 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a break of the mid April lows projecting a downside target of 35
2011-05-05 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe an intraday over throw?
2011-05-05 17:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLK breadth MCO
2011-05-05 17:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern looks to be a high level consolidation
2011-05-05 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 25 is the base
2011-05-05 17:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2011-05-05 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's holding up better than other sectors right now
2011-05-05 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we even got selling in the XLU today
2011-05-05 17:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not enough to be concerned with at this time
2011-05-05 17:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably just got caught up in whatever shook the market at 15:00
2011-05-05 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was that anyway?
2011-05-05 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone know?
2011-05-05 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-05-05 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are at what seems to be an important "show me" junctures
2011-05-05 17:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a great opportunity for the bears to not only wrestle control away from the bulls
2011-05-05 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to also build on it for the first time since last year
2011-05-05 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current bearish divergent structures in place
2011-05-05 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises near term could have quite a different outcome compared to that of the March period
2011-05-05 17:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...the market continues to tire as it's quite mature in its longevity
2011-05-05 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe we're finally about to get the correction we've been looking for to happen for several months now
2011-05-05 17:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me, however, I've seen too many times in which the bulls have pulled themselves up by their boot straps under similar conditions over the last decade, so I'm not discounting anything as yet
2011-05-05 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market is starting to look vulnerable
2011-05-05 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be respected for what it MAY imply
2011-05-05 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...
2011-05-05 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now neutral
2011-05-05 17:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-05-05 17:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was fast
2011-05-05 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-05-05 17:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this provides a bit of a different opinion here
2011-05-05 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what else
2011-05-05 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are negative, but mixed
2011-05-05 17:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing there
2011-05-05 17:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are a bit on the "overbought" side
2011-05-05 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that can be allowed in a trend as strong as this one has been
2011-05-05 17:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether that back will be broken or not tomorrow is still an uncertainty
2011-05-05 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.68
2011-05-05 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-05-05 17:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.15
2011-05-05 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: highly "oversold"
2011-05-05 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .83
2011-05-05 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: open 10 at .77
2011-05-05 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2011-05-05 17:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.03
2011-05-05 17:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2011-05-05 17:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-05-05 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-05-05 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-05 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: roll the dice
2011-05-05 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right's the bulls to lose
2011-05-05 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears could be planning a ambush that will keep the bulls from moving forward for a bit of time
2011-05-05 17:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes something like a key piece of economic data can push weight to one side or the other
2011-05-05 17:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even if the bears take the bulls by surprise
2011-05-05 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will not be able to pull it together to create a downtrend
2011-05-05 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day spikes? sure
2011-05-05 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2011-05-05 17:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most likely outcome of this kind of scenario is a trading range for probably the next 3-4 weeks
2011-05-05 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-05-05 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has been such a shift in both volume and sentiment that they can really make a run higher here without too much standing in their way
2011-05-05 17:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would watch breadth plurality after 11:30 Eastern tomorrow
2011-05-05 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's 4:1 in either direction, that should be enough to give us a push in one direction or the other for a couple of weeks
2011-05-05 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the new highs
2011-05-05 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears a test of the April, and maybe the March lows, but that's about all they can hope for with the current breadth configurations
2011-05-05 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-05-05 17:43:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yea, wish you wouldn't have mentioned ED, LOL
2011-05-05 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you didn't see it?
2011-05-05 17:44:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-05-05 17:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now you do!
2011-05-05 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-05-05 17:44:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: driving while blind, I guess
2011-05-05 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why we have the chat so we can point out things to each other and maybe make some money from it
2011-05-05 17:44:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: been trading individual issues a lot-guess I'm missing a bit on the indexes
2011-05-05 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that happens
2011-05-05 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why I always say its a good idea to look at the bigger picture each weekend
2011-05-05 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way you have a feel of how things should look like for the week
2011-05-05 17:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid
2011-05-05 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe the ED is a low possibility right now
2011-05-05 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the structure is there
2011-05-05 17:46:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, to both
2011-05-05 17:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments...observations???
2011-05-05 17:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough call here
2011-05-05 17:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we really have to give the nod to the bulls until proven otherwise
2011-05-05 17:47:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: would we need another high for the ED, or is it there?
2011-05-05 17:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more...yes
2011-05-05 17:47:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks. I thought so
2011-05-05 17:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break the April lows in the MCO with th price pattern making new highs
2011-05-05 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it comes to the front burner because of the breakdowns and divergences we're seeing here
2011-05-05 17:48:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny, I swear, that was just shooting through my head
2011-05-05 17:48:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think you are training me, LOL
2011-05-05 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why it could be an ending diagonal
2011-05-05 17:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the day traders will have a blast
2011-05-05 17:49:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yummy
2011-05-05 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the swings should be wide and deep
2011-05-05 17:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's see what happens tomorrow...but we have our blueprint for either outcome
2011-05-05 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who trade intermediate
2011-05-05 17:50:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool-great chat-very well balanced
2011-05-05 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a breakdown here in the internals would be a HOLD, with stops, but NOT a sell
2011-05-05 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are still too high in the MCSUM's for a sell
2011-05-05 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term money rotation
2011-05-05 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the defensive issues should hold up far better than the rest of the sectors if we breakdown
2011-05-05 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we don't
2011-05-05 17:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they should lead higher
2011-05-05 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a week
2011-05-05 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above all else
2011-05-05 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds or our making a termination top is very low
2011-05-05 17:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe below 10%
2011-05-05 17:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do need a correction for the health of the larger trend eventually
2011-05-05 17:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we finally get it here?
2011-05-05 17:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll hopefully know by Tuesday
2011-05-05 17:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-05-05 17:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-05-05 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-05-05 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look next Tuesday
2011-05-05 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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