All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics
 
Technical Watch > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 5/3/16
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,959
Posted Reply with quote  #1 
2016-05-03 16:00:53 fib1618: good day
2016-05-03 16:00:58 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-03 16:03:27 thespookyone: Fuine, and you?
2016-05-03 16:04:54 fib1618: Fuine...is that Scottish? [smile]
2016-05-03 16:05:02 thespookyone: LOL
2016-05-03 16:05:24 fib1618: doing fine, thanks for asking
2016-05-03 16:06:23 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2016-05-03 16:08:52 thespookyone: nope
2016-05-03 16:09:03 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started then
2016-05-03 16:09:30 fib1618: after an attempted snapback to or towards the zero line on Monday
2016-05-03 16:09:41 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved lower today
2016-05-03 16:10:03 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -43
2016-05-03 16:10:19 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-05-03 16:10:26 fib1618: and both remain above their zero lines
2016-05-03 16:10:34 fib1618: though in a negative crossover configuration
2016-05-03 16:10:49 fib1618: between the MCO and the components then
2016-05-03 16:10:57 fib1618: we are currently in a corrective sequence
2016-05-03 16:11:33 fib1618: with the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM topping out right at the +1000 level when last we met on Thursday
2016-05-03 16:12:10 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:12:26 fib1618: and here we had an exact zero line snapback on Monday
2016-05-03 16:12:32 fib1618: before moving to a lower low today
2016-05-03 16:12:52 fib1618: and resting with a reading of -31
2016-05-03 16:13:17 fib1618: here too the MCO components remain above their zero lines with a negative crossover
2016-05-03 16:14:01 fib1618: while the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM came just short of reaching the +1250 level last week
2016-05-03 16:14:36 fib1618: so between the CO and Composite data on the NYSE
2016-05-03 16:15:15 fib1618: it would appear that our meeting our upside price target in the NYA last week is pretty much all that we're likely to see for the short term
2016-05-03 16:15:55 fib1618: with important price pattern supporting coming in at around the 10,300 level
2016-05-03 16:16:06 fib1618: and Elliott wise, 10,100
2016-05-03 16:18:47 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:19:09 fib1618: and after a quick blip higher on Monday
2016-05-03 16:19:27 fib1618: we see that we've moved deeper into negative territory with a -38 reading
2016-05-03 16:20:02 fib1618: we also note for the first time since February
2016-05-03 16:20:22 fib1618: the 10% Trend of the NASDAQ MCO has now moved decisively into negative territory
2016-05-03 16:20:49 fib1618: and where an obligatory bounce to or toward the zero line would be the next technical expectation
2016-05-03 16:21:16 fib1618: also of note
2016-05-03 16:21:38 fib1618: is that the NASDAQ MCO is now at its lowest levels since February as well
2016-05-03 16:22:16 fib1618: and looking at the price chart itself
2016-05-03 16:22:52 fib1618: we have now reached our initial downside target from last week near the 4750/4800 level
2016-05-03 16:23:19 fib1618: bigger picture wise
2016-05-03 16:23:45 fib1618: there wasn't any follow through by the buyers above the +500 level in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM last week
2016-05-03 16:24:06 fib1618: and that does present a cause for concern moving forward as a completed counter trend rally within a larger bear market sequence
2016-05-03 16:24:34 fib1618: moving to what was our leading downside indicator over the last 2 weeks, the NDX breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:24:43 fib1618: and here we also saw a bounce on Monday
2016-05-03 16:25:13 fib1618: but we followed up today by moving back to the lows of Friday
2016-05-03 16:25:31 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-05-03 16:25:45 fib1618: and they seem to be following our blueprint of last week
2016-05-03 16:26:08 fib1618: with a bounce higher in the 10% for a zero line snapback
2016-05-03 16:26:37 fib1618: while the 5% bounced off its zero line on Monday before moving down and through this same line today
2016-05-03 16:27:14 fib1618: this, in turn, provides us with a sell signal on a short term trending basis for this basket of issues
2016-05-03 16:27:55 fib1618: but with our meeting the downside price target of 4350 over the last couple of days
2016-05-03 16:28:06 fib1618: a reflex rally would be expected near term
2016-05-03 16:28:43 fib1618: we can see how close the price echo has been between Apple and the NDX price structures of late
2016-05-03 16:29:33 fib1618: and some sort of "oversold" bounce is likely to take place in the stock...and that should help right the ship...at least for the next several days
2016-05-03 16:29:55 fib1618: as a chartist
2016-05-03 16:30:32 fib1618: not being able to challenge the highs of late last year in the NASDAQ and NDX is problematic
2016-05-03 16:31:09 fib1618: and one can only use the "excuse" of money seeking value products as opposed to growth products only so long
2016-05-03 16:31:18 fib1618: so let's keep a watchful eye there
2016-05-03 16:31:51 fib1618: especially since the NDX breadth MCSUM moved down and through its +500 level today
2016-05-03 16:32:06 fib1618: and with good post expansion as well
2016-05-03 16:32:53 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO also showed a snapback attempt toward its zero line on Monday before moving to lower lows today
2016-05-03 16:32:55 fib1618: however
2016-05-03 16:33:11 fib1618: we do remain above the April MCO lows at this stage
2016-05-03 16:33:40 fib1618: and if the buyers can hold this divergence as the SPX moves towards its 2040 target
2016-05-03 16:33:59 fib1618: we would have some nice price to breadth divergence to work with going into the rest of the month of May
2016-05-03 16:36:02 fib1618: so overall, the SPX remains buoyant
2016-05-03 16:36:24 fib1618: another textbook zero line snapback as well in the OEX breadth MCO on Monday
2016-05-03 16:36:49 fib1618: winding up with an identical level that we saw on Friday
2016-05-03 16:36:56 fib1618: so no break of support there
2016-05-03 16:37:24 fib1618: though one would think with the weakness in the NYSE and NASDAQ today that we'll see a break before we turn just so we can be in sync
2016-05-03 16:38:00 fib1618: higher low as well in the Dow breadth MCO after its zero line snapback attempt on Monday
2016-05-03 16:38:39 fib1618: and the Dow 10% component continues to test, but not as yet break pattern support, of its zero line
2016-05-03 16:39:26 fib1618: 17,600 still doable there
2016-05-03 16:39:50 fib1618: zero line snapback as well on the MID breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:40:10 fib1618: and finishing the day with a reading of -51
2016-05-03 16:40:17 fib1618: so we're at natural support
2016-05-03 16:40:18 fib1618: and
2016-05-03 16:40:31 fib1618: we remain above the MCO lows of early April
2016-05-03 16:40:36 fib1618: so far then
2016-05-03 16:40:49 fib1618: it seems that most of the selling is coming from highly weighted issues in the NDX
2016-05-03 16:41:11 fib1618: and though it's a drag for the bulls
2016-05-03 16:41:22 fib1618: there isn't too much hard selling going on either
2016-05-03 16:41:39 fib1618: sort of like the buyers saying "is that all you got?" to the sellers
2016-05-03 16:42:04 fib1618: noted here is that the MID 10% component is back to its zero line
2016-05-03 16:42:14 fib1618: which then suggests a near term technical bounce
2016-05-03 16:42:31 fib1618: and remarkably
2016-05-03 16:42:48 fib1618: we have the very same thing going on in the SML breadth MCO and its components
2016-05-03 16:43:01 fib1618: so if the volume side is not confirming the sell off
2016-05-03 16:43:24 fib1618: this appears to be a point in the pattern for additional accumulation
2016-05-03 16:43:43 fib1618: hard to justify this with the MCSUM's as high as they are right now
2016-05-03 16:44:06 fib1618: as one would think that a more extended pause would be a reasonable expectation
2016-05-03 16:44:17 fib1618: but there's so much money in the system right now
2016-05-03 16:44:45 fib1618: that the idea of continuing to see the MCSUM's remaining above their zero line is a high possibility
2016-05-03 16:44:56 fib1618: and this should lend intermediate term support to prices in general
2016-05-03 16:45:39 fib1618: and we did see a lower low in the TM breadth MCO today after its zero line snapback on Monday
2016-05-03 16:46:01 fib1618: but it does remain above the February lows by 3 points
2016-05-03 16:46:15 fib1618: one of those character moments for the bulls it would seem
2016-05-03 16:46:43 fib1618: while the TM MCO components remain nicely above their zero lines...at least for now
2016-05-03 16:46:44 fib1618: so...
2016-05-03 16:47:11 fib1618: our thought of a deeper corrective process from Thursday's chat seems to be gaining better momentum now
2016-05-03 16:47:51 fib1618: with the NDX remaining the key market right now in providing any answers on how deep this process is going to need before trader support is seen
2016-05-03 16:48:10 fib1618: the mega cap indices remain in positive configurations for now
2016-05-03 16:48:25 fib1618: and with the jobs data beginning on Wednesday
2016-05-03 16:48:46 fib1618: it would seem that positions are probably squared now going into this same data
2016-05-03 16:49:10 fib1618: and after our expected reflex rally on Wednesday
2016-05-03 16:49:38 fib1618: Thursday is likely to be a day where traders are going to hold their cards close to the chest until Friday's announcement
2016-05-03 16:49:47 fib1618: let's see how the volume side is looking
2016-05-03 16:50:29 fib1618: taking a cursory view of the sector charts
2016-05-03 16:50:49 fib1618: it would seem that much of the selling is focusing on commodities
2016-05-03 16:51:18 fib1618: nice to see that the XLE came within the window of our upside price target last week before turning south
2016-05-03 16:51:30 fib1618: though it remains a hold for now
2016-05-03 16:51:39 fib1618: we'll look at that in detail on Thursday
2016-05-03 16:52:03 fib1618: moving to the volume MCO's
2016-05-03 16:52:21 fib1618: and we seem to have a near term disagreement between the CO volume MCO and the Composite volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:52:40 fib1618: as the CO moved below its April lows
2016-05-03 16:52:44 fib1618: but the Composite did not
2016-05-03 16:53:03 fib1618: given our history with this indicator
2016-05-03 16:53:33 fib1618: it would be unusual to see a turnaround without some sort of complement between these two degrees of investment
2016-05-03 16:54:06 fib1618: so a lower low in the NYSE Composite volume MCO is likely before we'll see a bottom, so this could extend our expectation of a bounce until Thursday
2016-05-03 16:54:49 fib1618: the downside leadership that we've noted previously in the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's continues here
2016-05-03 16:55:05 fib1618: so to answer our question...yes...volume is leading breadth to the downside
2016-05-03 16:55:25 fib1618: and more assuredly so in the secondary market
2016-05-03 16:55:44 fib1618: as well as the SPX volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:55:54 fib1618: though with a reading of -51
2016-05-03 16:56:03 fib1618: a near term technical bounce is expected
2016-05-03 16:56:25 fib1618: then we get to the OEX and Dow volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:56:39 fib1618: and there we're diverging like their breadth counterparts
2016-05-03 16:57:12 fib1618: so...it would seem that most, if not all, of the willing sellers are now out of the "cream" issues
2016-05-03 16:57:50 fib1618: we are diverging though in the MID volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:58:09 fib1618: but not at all with the SML volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:58:37 fib1618: with the TM decidedly negative at this time
2016-05-03 16:58:46 fib1618: winding up today with a reading of -52
2016-05-03 16:58:50 fib1618: so...
2016-05-03 16:59:10 fib1618: it would seem that we're seeing some heavier than average selling right now
2016-05-03 16:59:50 fib1618: but a lot of it is being focused on secondary and those issues that tend not to have something to provide while waiting for things to work themselves out
2016-05-03 16:59:53 fib1618: overall...
2016-05-03 17:00:16 fib1618: we have been seeing good money flow patterns now for almost 3 months now
2016-05-03 17:00:32 fib1618: and so a pause to refresh wouldn't be surprising
2016-05-03 17:00:35 fib1618: intermediate term
2016-05-03 17:00:43 fib1618: we remain in good shape
2016-05-03 17:01:02 fib1618: though short term we seem to be at or near some sort of reflex point in prices
2016-05-03 17:02:04 fib1618: with many of the breadth and volume MCO's continuing to suggest shallow corrective activity at this time
2016-05-03 17:02:20 fib1618: looks like "hit and run" is back on the table
2016-05-03 17:03:11 fib1618: looking at the OBV's
2016-05-03 17:03:38 fib1618: and the NDX is getting mighty close to some sort of important bottom
2016-05-03 17:04:00 fib1618: just need one more emotional flush there to do it
2016-05-03 17:04:15 fib1618: otherwise
2016-05-03 17:04:21 fib1618: STVO's are neutral
2016-05-03 17:04:47 fib1618: and VTO's continuing to suggest an uptrend in progress...though weakening just a wee bit
2016-05-03 17:05:00 fib1618: ouch
2016-05-03 17:05:06 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.98
2016-05-03 17:05:23 fib1618: close enough to 2.00 to where an important bottom may be seen within the next week
2016-05-03 17:05:41 fib1618: Open 10 now "oversold" at 1.12
2016-05-03 17:06:01 fib1618: so from this point, it becomes more and more difficult for the sellers to push prices lower
2016-05-03 17:06:13 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.05
2016-05-03 17:06:27 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.08
2016-05-03 17:06:34 fib1618: after moving to "oversold" last Friday
2016-05-03 17:06:47 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.29
2016-05-03 17:06:57 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.13
2016-05-03 17:07:01 fib1618: "oversold"
2016-05-03 17:07:04 fib1618: so...
2016-05-03 17:07:41 fib1618: it would appear that the willing sellers have now unloaded their positions
2016-05-03 17:07:54 fib1618: and where we need the unwilling traders to capitulate
2016-05-03 17:08:44 fib1618: we do, however, have downside price targets that are likely to be met before we grab a foothold an climb higher again
2016-05-03 17:09:03 fib1618: but, so far, it appears to be a corrective process
2016-05-03 17:09:20 fib1618: though with the NASDAQ and NDX not being able to challenge their fall highs
2016-05-03 17:10:04 fib1618: we do seem to be needing some conviction by the buyers or we can be susceptible to bearish ambushes
2016-05-03 17:10:10 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-05-03 17:18:38 fib1618: +45
2016-05-03 17:18:47 fib1618: so we lost 5 points
2016-05-03 17:19:17 fib1618: the NAAD and NAUD lines though are playing EMA tag
2016-05-03 17:19:24 fib1618: but at this point
2016-05-03 17:19:36 fib1618: not too much damage is being seen at this early stage
2016-05-03 17:20:00 fib1618: but we should (hopefully) know better on Thursday
2016-05-03 17:20:06 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-03 17:21:29 fib1618: Apple is now at its February lows and bounce higher today
2016-05-03 17:21:38 fib1618: bad news though
2016-05-03 17:21:46 fib1618: the stock in a bearish configuration now
2016-05-03 17:22:11 fib1618: and it's going to take a couple of months to turn that around
2016-05-03 17:22:26 fib1618: what else got hit lately?
2016-05-03 17:22:49 fib1618: ouch
2016-05-03 17:23:04 fib1618: I just broadened the timeline out on AAPL
2016-05-03 17:23:09 fib1618: and no bueno with tops beneath tops controlling the price action
2016-05-03 17:23:18 thespookyone: nope
2016-05-03 17:23:51 fib1618: with $90 important support
2016-05-03 17:24:20 fib1618: trendline support at $75
2016-05-03 17:24:59 fib1618: when was Apple added to the Dow?
2016-05-03 17:25:18 fib1618: wow
2016-05-03 17:25:22 fib1618: March 2015
2016-05-03 17:25:36 fib1618: and look where the top is
2016-05-03 17:25:59 fib1618: what an amazing indicator inclusion and expulsion from the Dow is
2016-05-03 17:26:07 fib1618: you move in...you top
2016-05-03 17:26:19 fib1618: you move out and you rally like you haven't in years
2016-05-03 17:26:39 fib1618: look at T
2016-05-03 17:26:56 fib1618: that really is amazing
2016-05-03 17:27:30 fib1618: Apple is now down 31% since inclusion
2016-05-03 17:27:46 thespookyone: ouch
2016-05-03 17:27:58 fib1618: and AT&T is up 22%
2016-05-03 17:28:27 fib1618: and how about the timing of MSFT and INTC being included at the top in 2000?
2016-05-03 17:28:35 fib1618: what a kiss of death that is
2016-05-03 17:28:58 fib1618: fascinating how this works
2016-05-03 17:29:27 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-03 17:29:32 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-03 17:29:39 thespookyone: thx
2016-05-03 17:29:40 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days of trading
2016-05-03 17:29:47 fib1618: and we'll see who she looks on Thursday
2016-05-03 17:29:48 fib1618: good night
__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.





Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch