fib_1618
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2016-05-03 16:00:53 fib1618: good day 2016-05-03 16:00:58 fib1618: how is everyone? 2016-05-03 16:03:27 thespookyone: Fuine, and you? 2016-05-03 16:04:54 fib1618: Fuine...is that Scottish? 2016-05-03 16:05:02 thespookyone: LOL 2016-05-03 16:05:24 fib1618: doing fine, thanks for asking 2016-05-03 16:06:23 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started? 2016-05-03 16:08:52 thespookyone: nope 2016-05-03 16:09:03 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started then 2016-05-03 16:09:30 fib1618: after an attempted snapback to or towards the zero line on Monday 2016-05-03 16:09:41 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved lower today 2016-05-03 16:10:03 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -43 2016-05-03 16:10:19 fib1618: looking at the CO components 2016-05-03 16:10:26 fib1618: and both remain above their zero lines 2016-05-03 16:10:34 fib1618: though in a negative crossover configuration 2016-05-03 16:10:49 fib1618: between the MCO and the components then 2016-05-03 16:10:57 fib1618: we are currently in a corrective sequence 2016-05-03 16:11:33 fib1618: with the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM topping out right at the +1000 level when last we met on Thursday 2016-05-03 16:12:10 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO 2016-05-03 16:12:26 fib1618: and here we had an exact zero line snapback on Monday 2016-05-03 16:12:32 fib1618: before moving to a lower low today 2016-05-03 16:12:52 fib1618: and resting with a reading of -31 2016-05-03 16:13:17 fib1618: here too the MCO components remain above their zero lines with a negative crossover 2016-05-03 16:14:01 fib1618: while the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM came just short of reaching the +1250 level last week 2016-05-03 16:14:36 fib1618: so between the CO and Composite data on the NYSE 2016-05-03 16:15:15 fib1618: it would appear that our meeting our upside price target in the NYA last week is pretty much all that we're likely to see for the short term 2016-05-03 16:15:55 fib1618: with important price pattern supporting coming in at around the 10,300 level 2016-05-03 16:16:06 fib1618: and Elliott wise, 10,100 2016-05-03 16:18:47 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2016-05-03 16:19:09 fib1618: and after a quick blip higher on Monday 2016-05-03 16:19:27 fib1618: we see that we've moved deeper into negative territory with a -38 reading 2016-05-03 16:20:02 fib1618: we also note for the first time since February 2016-05-03 16:20:22 fib1618: the 10% Trend of the NASDAQ MCO has now moved decisively into negative territory 2016-05-03 16:20:49 fib1618: and where an obligatory bounce to or toward the zero line would be the next technical expectation 2016-05-03 16:21:16 fib1618: also of note 2016-05-03 16:21:38 fib1618: is that the NASDAQ MCO is now at its lowest levels since February as well 2016-05-03 16:22:16 fib1618: and looking at the price chart itself 2016-05-03 16:22:52 fib1618: we have now reached our initial downside target from last week near the 4750/4800 level 2016-05-03 16:23:19 fib1618: bigger picture wise 2016-05-03 16:23:45 fib1618: there wasn't any follow through by the buyers above the +500 level in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM last week 2016-05-03 16:24:06 fib1618: and that does present a cause for concern moving forward as a completed counter trend rally within a larger bear market sequence 2016-05-03 16:24:34 fib1618: moving to what was our leading downside indicator over the last 2 weeks, the NDX breadth MCO 2016-05-03 16:24:43 fib1618: and here we also saw a bounce on Monday 2016-05-03 16:25:13 fib1618: but we followed up today by moving back to the lows of Friday 2016-05-03 16:25:31 fib1618: looking at the components 2016-05-03 16:25:45 fib1618: and they seem to be following our blueprint of last week 2016-05-03 16:26:08 fib1618: with a bounce higher in the 10% for a zero line snapback 2016-05-03 16:26:37 fib1618: while the 5% bounced off its zero line on Monday before moving down and through this same line today 2016-05-03 16:27:14 fib1618: this, in turn, provides us with a sell signal on a short term trending basis for this basket of issues 2016-05-03 16:27:55 fib1618: but with our meeting the downside price target of 4350 over the last couple of days 2016-05-03 16:28:06 fib1618: a reflex rally would be expected near term 2016-05-03 16:28:43 fib1618: we can see how close the price echo has been between Apple and the NDX price structures of late 2016-05-03 16:29:33 fib1618: and some sort of "oversold" bounce is likely to take place in the stock...and that should help right the ship...at least for the next several days 2016-05-03 16:29:55 fib1618: as a chartist 2016-05-03 16:30:32 fib1618: not being able to challenge the highs of late last year in the NASDAQ and NDX is problematic 2016-05-03 16:31:09 fib1618: and one can only use the "excuse" of money seeking value products as opposed to growth products only so long 2016-05-03 16:31:18 fib1618: so let's keep a watchful eye there 2016-05-03 16:31:51 fib1618: especially since the NDX breadth MCSUM moved down and through its +500 level today 2016-05-03 16:32:06 fib1618: and with good post expansion as well 2016-05-03 16:32:53 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO also showed a snapback attempt toward its zero line on Monday before moving to lower lows today 2016-05-03 16:32:55 fib1618: however 2016-05-03 16:33:11 fib1618: we do remain above the April MCO lows at this stage 2016-05-03 16:33:40 fib1618: and if the buyers can hold this divergence as the SPX moves towards its 2040 target 2016-05-03 16:33:59 fib1618: we would have some nice price to breadth divergence to work with going into the rest of the month of May 2016-05-03 16:36:02 fib1618: so overall, the SPX remains buoyant 2016-05-03 16:36:24 fib1618: another textbook zero line snapback as well in the OEX breadth MCO on Monday 2016-05-03 16:36:49 fib1618: winding up with an identical level that we saw on Friday 2016-05-03 16:36:56 fib1618: so no break of support there 2016-05-03 16:37:24 fib1618: though one would think with the weakness in the NYSE and NASDAQ today that we'll see a break before we turn just so we can be in sync 2016-05-03 16:38:00 fib1618: higher low as well in the Dow breadth MCO after its zero line snapback attempt on Monday 2016-05-03 16:38:39 fib1618: and the Dow 10% component continues to test, but not as yet break pattern support, of its zero line 2016-05-03 16:39:26 fib1618: 17,600 still doable there 2016-05-03 16:39:50 fib1618: zero line snapback as well on the MID breadth MCO 2016-05-03 16:40:10 fib1618: and finishing the day with a reading of -51 2016-05-03 16:40:17 fib1618: so we're at natural support 2016-05-03 16:40:18 fib1618: and 2016-05-03 16:40:31 fib1618: we remain above the MCO lows of early April 2016-05-03 16:40:36 fib1618: so far then 2016-05-03 16:40:49 fib1618: it seems that most of the selling is coming from highly weighted issues in the NDX 2016-05-03 16:41:11 fib1618: and though it's a drag for the bulls 2016-05-03 16:41:22 fib1618: there isn't too much hard selling going on either 2016-05-03 16:41:39 fib1618: sort of like the buyers saying "is that all you got?" to the sellers 2016-05-03 16:42:04 fib1618: noted here is that the MID 10% component is back to its zero line 2016-05-03 16:42:14 fib1618: which then suggests a near term technical bounce 2016-05-03 16:42:31 fib1618: and remarkably 2016-05-03 16:42:48 fib1618: we have the very same thing going on in the SML breadth MCO and its components 2016-05-03 16:43:01 fib1618: so if the volume side is not confirming the sell off 2016-05-03 16:43:24 fib1618: this appears to be a point in the pattern for additional accumulation 2016-05-03 16:43:43 fib1618: hard to justify this with the MCSUM's as high as they are right now 2016-05-03 16:44:06 fib1618: as one would think that a more extended pause would be a reasonable expectation 2016-05-03 16:44:17 fib1618: but there's so much money in the system right now 2016-05-03 16:44:45 fib1618: that the idea of continuing to see the MCSUM's remaining above their zero line is a high possibility 2016-05-03 16:44:56 fib1618: and this should lend intermediate term support to prices in general 2016-05-03 16:45:39 fib1618: and we did see a lower low in the TM breadth MCO today after its zero line snapback on Monday 2016-05-03 16:46:01 fib1618: but it does remain above the February lows by 3 points 2016-05-03 16:46:15 fib1618: one of those character moments for the bulls it would seem 2016-05-03 16:46:43 fib1618: while the TM MCO components remain nicely above their zero lines...at least for now 2016-05-03 16:46:44 fib1618: so... 2016-05-03 16:47:11 fib1618: our thought of a deeper corrective process from Thursday's chat seems to be gaining better momentum now 2016-05-03 16:47:51 fib1618: with the NDX remaining the key market right now in providing any answers on how deep this process is going to need before trader support is seen 2016-05-03 16:48:10 fib1618: the mega cap indices remain in positive configurations for now 2016-05-03 16:48:25 fib1618: and with the jobs data beginning on Wednesday 2016-05-03 16:48:46 fib1618: it would seem that positions are probably squared now going into this same data 2016-05-03 16:49:10 fib1618: and after our expected reflex rally on Wednesday 2016-05-03 16:49:38 fib1618: Thursday is likely to be a day where traders are going to hold their cards close to the chest until Friday's announcement 2016-05-03 16:49:47 fib1618: let's see how the volume side is looking 2016-05-03 16:50:29 fib1618: taking a cursory view of the sector charts 2016-05-03 16:50:49 fib1618: it would seem that much of the selling is focusing on commodities 2016-05-03 16:51:18 fib1618: nice to see that the XLE came within the window of our upside price target last week before turning south 2016-05-03 16:51:30 fib1618: though it remains a hold for now 2016-05-03 16:51:39 fib1618: we'll look at that in detail on Thursday 2016-05-03 16:52:03 fib1618: moving to the volume MCO's 2016-05-03 16:52:21 fib1618: and we seem to have a near term disagreement between the CO volume MCO and the Composite volume MCO 2016-05-03 16:52:40 fib1618: as the CO moved below its April lows 2016-05-03 16:52:44 fib1618: but the Composite did not 2016-05-03 16:53:03 fib1618: given our history with this indicator 2016-05-03 16:53:33 fib1618: it would be unusual to see a turnaround without some sort of complement between these two degrees of investment 2016-05-03 16:54:06 fib1618: so a lower low in the NYSE Composite volume MCO is likely before we'll see a bottom, so this could extend our expectation of a bounce until Thursday 2016-05-03 16:54:49 fib1618: the downside leadership that we've noted previously in the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's continues here 2016-05-03 16:55:05 fib1618: so to answer our question...yes...volume is leading breadth to the downside 2016-05-03 16:55:25 fib1618: and more assuredly so in the secondary market 2016-05-03 16:55:44 fib1618: as well as the SPX volume MCO 2016-05-03 16:55:54 fib1618: though with a reading of -51 2016-05-03 16:56:03 fib1618: a near term technical bounce is expected 2016-05-03 16:56:25 fib1618: then we get to the OEX and Dow volume MCO 2016-05-03 16:56:39 fib1618: and there we're diverging like their breadth counterparts 2016-05-03 16:57:12 fib1618: so...it would seem that most, if not all, of the willing sellers are now out of the "cream" issues 2016-05-03 16:57:50 fib1618: we are diverging though in the MID volume MCO 2016-05-03 16:58:09 fib1618: but not at all with the SML volume MCO 2016-05-03 16:58:37 fib1618: with the TM decidedly negative at this time 2016-05-03 16:58:46 fib1618: winding up today with a reading of -52 2016-05-03 16:58:50 fib1618: so... 2016-05-03 16:59:10 fib1618: it would seem that we're seeing some heavier than average selling right now 2016-05-03 16:59:50 fib1618: but a lot of it is being focused on secondary and those issues that tend not to have something to provide while waiting for things to work themselves out 2016-05-03 16:59:53 fib1618: overall... 2016-05-03 17:00:16 fib1618: we have been seeing good money flow patterns now for almost 3 months now 2016-05-03 17:00:32 fib1618: and so a pause to refresh wouldn't be surprising 2016-05-03 17:00:35 fib1618: intermediate term 2016-05-03 17:00:43 fib1618: we remain in good shape 2016-05-03 17:01:02 fib1618: though short term we seem to be at or near some sort of reflex point in prices 2016-05-03 17:02:04 fib1618: with many of the breadth and volume MCO's continuing to suggest shallow corrective activity at this time 2016-05-03 17:02:20 fib1618: looks like "hit and run" is back on the table 2016-05-03 17:03:11 fib1618: looking at the OBV's 2016-05-03 17:03:38 fib1618: and the NDX is getting mighty close to some sort of important bottom 2016-05-03 17:04:00 fib1618: just need one more emotional flush there to do it 2016-05-03 17:04:15 fib1618: otherwise 2016-05-03 17:04:21 fib1618: STVO's are neutral 2016-05-03 17:04:47 fib1618: and VTO's continuing to suggest an uptrend in progress...though weakening just a wee bit 2016-05-03 17:05:00 fib1618: ouch 2016-05-03 17:05:06 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.98 2016-05-03 17:05:23 fib1618: close enough to 2.00 to where an important bottom may be seen within the next week 2016-05-03 17:05:41 fib1618: Open 10 now "oversold" at 1.12 2016-05-03 17:06:01 fib1618: so from this point, it becomes more and more difficult for the sellers to push prices lower 2016-05-03 17:06:13 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.05 2016-05-03 17:06:27 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.08 2016-05-03 17:06:34 fib1618: after moving to "oversold" last Friday 2016-05-03 17:06:47 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.29 2016-05-03 17:06:57 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.13 2016-05-03 17:07:01 fib1618: "oversold" 2016-05-03 17:07:04 fib1618: so... 2016-05-03 17:07:41 fib1618: it would appear that the willing sellers have now unloaded their positions 2016-05-03 17:07:54 fib1618: and where we need the unwilling traders to capitulate 2016-05-03 17:08:44 fib1618: we do, however, have downside price targets that are likely to be met before we grab a foothold an climb higher again 2016-05-03 17:09:03 fib1618: but, so far, it appears to be a corrective process 2016-05-03 17:09:20 fib1618: though with the NASDAQ and NDX not being able to challenge their fall highs 2016-05-03 17:10:04 fib1618: we do seem to be needing some conviction by the buyers or we can be susceptible to bearish ambushes 2016-05-03 17:10:10 fib1618: let me check the BETS 2016-05-03 17:18:38 fib1618: +45 2016-05-03 17:18:47 fib1618: so we lost 5 points 2016-05-03 17:19:17 fib1618: the NAAD and NAUD lines though are playing EMA tag 2016-05-03 17:19:24 fib1618: but at this point 2016-05-03 17:19:36 fib1618: not too much damage is being seen at this early stage 2016-05-03 17:20:00 fib1618: but we should (hopefully) know better on Thursday 2016-05-03 17:20:06 fib1618: anything else? 2016-05-03 17:21:29 fib1618: Apple is now at its February lows and bounce higher today 2016-05-03 17:21:38 fib1618: bad news though 2016-05-03 17:21:46 fib1618: the stock in a bearish configuration now 2016-05-03 17:22:11 fib1618: and it's going to take a couple of months to turn that around 2016-05-03 17:22:26 fib1618: what else got hit lately? 2016-05-03 17:22:49 fib1618: ouch 2016-05-03 17:23:04 fib1618: I just broadened the timeline out on AAPL 2016-05-03 17:23:09 fib1618: and no bueno with tops beneath tops controlling the price action 2016-05-03 17:23:18 thespookyone: nope 2016-05-03 17:23:51 fib1618: with $90 important support 2016-05-03 17:24:20 fib1618: trendline support at $75 2016-05-03 17:24:59 fib1618: when was Apple added to the Dow? 2016-05-03 17:25:18 fib1618: wow 2016-05-03 17:25:22 fib1618: March 2015 2016-05-03 17:25:36 fib1618: and look where the top is 2016-05-03 17:25:59 fib1618: what an amazing indicator inclusion and expulsion from the Dow is 2016-05-03 17:26:07 fib1618: you move in...you top 2016-05-03 17:26:19 fib1618: you move out and you rally like you haven't in years 2016-05-03 17:26:39 fib1618: look at T 2016-05-03 17:26:56 fib1618: that really is amazing 2016-05-03 17:27:30 fib1618: Apple is now down 31% since inclusion 2016-05-03 17:27:46 thespookyone: ouch 2016-05-03 17:27:58 fib1618: and AT&T is up 22% 2016-05-03 17:28:27 fib1618: and how about the timing of MSFT and INTC being included at the top in 2000? 2016-05-03 17:28:35 fib1618: what a kiss of death that is 2016-05-03 17:28:58 fib1618: fascinating how this works 2016-05-03 17:29:27 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else 2016-05-03 17:29:32 fib1618: I'm going to take off 2016-05-03 17:29:39 thespookyone: thx 2016-05-03 17:29:40 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days of trading 2016-05-03 17:29:47 fib1618: and we'll see who she looks on Thursday 2016-05-03 17:29:48 fib1618: good night
__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977