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Technical Watch > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 5/3/16
 
 


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fib_1618

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2016-05-03 16:00:53 fib1618: good day
2016-05-03 16:00:58 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-03 16:03:27 thespookyone: Fuine, and you?
2016-05-03 16:04:54 fib1618: Fuine...is that Scottish? [smile]
2016-05-03 16:05:02 thespookyone: LOL
2016-05-03 16:05:24 fib1618: doing fine, thanks for asking
2016-05-03 16:06:23 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2016-05-03 16:08:52 thespookyone: nope
2016-05-03 16:09:03 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started then
2016-05-03 16:09:30 fib1618: after an attempted snapback to or towards the zero line on Monday
2016-05-03 16:09:41 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved lower today
2016-05-03 16:10:03 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -43
2016-05-03 16:10:19 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-05-03 16:10:26 fib1618: and both remain above their zero lines
2016-05-03 16:10:34 fib1618: though in a negative crossover configuration
2016-05-03 16:10:49 fib1618: between the MCO and the components then
2016-05-03 16:10:57 fib1618: we are currently in a corrective sequence
2016-05-03 16:11:33 fib1618: with the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM topping out right at the +1000 level when last we met on Thursday
2016-05-03 16:12:10 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:12:26 fib1618: and here we had an exact zero line snapback on Monday
2016-05-03 16:12:32 fib1618: before moving to a lower low today
2016-05-03 16:12:52 fib1618: and resting with a reading of -31
2016-05-03 16:13:17 fib1618: here too the MCO components remain above their zero lines with a negative crossover
2016-05-03 16:14:01 fib1618: while the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM came just short of reaching the +1250 level last week
2016-05-03 16:14:36 fib1618: so between the CO and Composite data on the NYSE
2016-05-03 16:15:15 fib1618: it would appear that our meeting our upside price target in the NYA last week is pretty much all that we're likely to see for the short term
2016-05-03 16:15:55 fib1618: with important price pattern supporting coming in at around the 10,300 level
2016-05-03 16:16:06 fib1618: and Elliott wise, 10,100
2016-05-03 16:18:47 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:19:09 fib1618: and after a quick blip higher on Monday
2016-05-03 16:19:27 fib1618: we see that we've moved deeper into negative territory with a -38 reading
2016-05-03 16:20:02 fib1618: we also note for the first time since February
2016-05-03 16:20:22 fib1618: the 10% Trend of the NASDAQ MCO has now moved decisively into negative territory
2016-05-03 16:20:49 fib1618: and where an obligatory bounce to or toward the zero line would be the next technical expectation
2016-05-03 16:21:16 fib1618: also of note
2016-05-03 16:21:38 fib1618: is that the NASDAQ MCO is now at its lowest levels since February as well
2016-05-03 16:22:16 fib1618: and looking at the price chart itself
2016-05-03 16:22:52 fib1618: we have now reached our initial downside target from last week near the 4750/4800 level
2016-05-03 16:23:19 fib1618: bigger picture wise
2016-05-03 16:23:45 fib1618: there wasn't any follow through by the buyers above the +500 level in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM last week
2016-05-03 16:24:06 fib1618: and that does present a cause for concern moving forward as a completed counter trend rally within a larger bear market sequence
2016-05-03 16:24:34 fib1618: moving to what was our leading downside indicator over the last 2 weeks, the NDX breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:24:43 fib1618: and here we also saw a bounce on Monday
2016-05-03 16:25:13 fib1618: but we followed up today by moving back to the lows of Friday
2016-05-03 16:25:31 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-05-03 16:25:45 fib1618: and they seem to be following our blueprint of last week
2016-05-03 16:26:08 fib1618: with a bounce higher in the 10% for a zero line snapback
2016-05-03 16:26:37 fib1618: while the 5% bounced off its zero line on Monday before moving down and through this same line today
2016-05-03 16:27:14 fib1618: this, in turn, provides us with a sell signal on a short term trending basis for this basket of issues
2016-05-03 16:27:55 fib1618: but with our meeting the downside price target of 4350 over the last couple of days
2016-05-03 16:28:06 fib1618: a reflex rally would be expected near term
2016-05-03 16:28:43 fib1618: we can see how close the price echo has been between Apple and the NDX price structures of late
2016-05-03 16:29:33 fib1618: and some sort of "oversold" bounce is likely to take place in the stock...and that should help right the ship...at least for the next several days
2016-05-03 16:29:55 fib1618: as a chartist
2016-05-03 16:30:32 fib1618: not being able to challenge the highs of late last year in the NASDAQ and NDX is problematic
2016-05-03 16:31:09 fib1618: and one can only use the "excuse" of money seeking value products as opposed to growth products only so long
2016-05-03 16:31:18 fib1618: so let's keep a watchful eye there
2016-05-03 16:31:51 fib1618: especially since the NDX breadth MCSUM moved down and through its +500 level today
2016-05-03 16:32:06 fib1618: and with good post expansion as well
2016-05-03 16:32:53 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO also showed a snapback attempt toward its zero line on Monday before moving to lower lows today
2016-05-03 16:32:55 fib1618: however
2016-05-03 16:33:11 fib1618: we do remain above the April MCO lows at this stage
2016-05-03 16:33:40 fib1618: and if the buyers can hold this divergence as the SPX moves towards its 2040 target
2016-05-03 16:33:59 fib1618: we would have some nice price to breadth divergence to work with going into the rest of the month of May
2016-05-03 16:36:02 fib1618: so overall, the SPX remains buoyant
2016-05-03 16:36:24 fib1618: another textbook zero line snapback as well in the OEX breadth MCO on Monday
2016-05-03 16:36:49 fib1618: winding up with an identical level that we saw on Friday
2016-05-03 16:36:56 fib1618: so no break of support there
2016-05-03 16:37:24 fib1618: though one would think with the weakness in the NYSE and NASDAQ today that we'll see a break before we turn just so we can be in sync
2016-05-03 16:38:00 fib1618: higher low as well in the Dow breadth MCO after its zero line snapback attempt on Monday
2016-05-03 16:38:39 fib1618: and the Dow 10% component continues to test, but not as yet break pattern support, of its zero line
2016-05-03 16:39:26 fib1618: 17,600 still doable there
2016-05-03 16:39:50 fib1618: zero line snapback as well on the MID breadth MCO
2016-05-03 16:40:10 fib1618: and finishing the day with a reading of -51
2016-05-03 16:40:17 fib1618: so we're at natural support
2016-05-03 16:40:18 fib1618: and
2016-05-03 16:40:31 fib1618: we remain above the MCO lows of early April
2016-05-03 16:40:36 fib1618: so far then
2016-05-03 16:40:49 fib1618: it seems that most of the selling is coming from highly weighted issues in the NDX
2016-05-03 16:41:11 fib1618: and though it's a drag for the bulls
2016-05-03 16:41:22 fib1618: there isn't too much hard selling going on either
2016-05-03 16:41:39 fib1618: sort of like the buyers saying "is that all you got?" to the sellers
2016-05-03 16:42:04 fib1618: noted here is that the MID 10% component is back to its zero line
2016-05-03 16:42:14 fib1618: which then suggests a near term technical bounce
2016-05-03 16:42:31 fib1618: and remarkably
2016-05-03 16:42:48 fib1618: we have the very same thing going on in the SML breadth MCO and its components
2016-05-03 16:43:01 fib1618: so if the volume side is not confirming the sell off
2016-05-03 16:43:24 fib1618: this appears to be a point in the pattern for additional accumulation
2016-05-03 16:43:43 fib1618: hard to justify this with the MCSUM's as high as they are right now
2016-05-03 16:44:06 fib1618: as one would think that a more extended pause would be a reasonable expectation
2016-05-03 16:44:17 fib1618: but there's so much money in the system right now
2016-05-03 16:44:45 fib1618: that the idea of continuing to see the MCSUM's remaining above their zero line is a high possibility
2016-05-03 16:44:56 fib1618: and this should lend intermediate term support to prices in general
2016-05-03 16:45:39 fib1618: and we did see a lower low in the TM breadth MCO today after its zero line snapback on Monday
2016-05-03 16:46:01 fib1618: but it does remain above the February lows by 3 points
2016-05-03 16:46:15 fib1618: one of those character moments for the bulls it would seem
2016-05-03 16:46:43 fib1618: while the TM MCO components remain nicely above their zero lines...at least for now
2016-05-03 16:46:44 fib1618: so...
2016-05-03 16:47:11 fib1618: our thought of a deeper corrective process from Thursday's chat seems to be gaining better momentum now
2016-05-03 16:47:51 fib1618: with the NDX remaining the key market right now in providing any answers on how deep this process is going to need before trader support is seen
2016-05-03 16:48:10 fib1618: the mega cap indices remain in positive configurations for now
2016-05-03 16:48:25 fib1618: and with the jobs data beginning on Wednesday
2016-05-03 16:48:46 fib1618: it would seem that positions are probably squared now going into this same data
2016-05-03 16:49:10 fib1618: and after our expected reflex rally on Wednesday
2016-05-03 16:49:38 fib1618: Thursday is likely to be a day where traders are going to hold their cards close to the chest until Friday's announcement
2016-05-03 16:49:47 fib1618: let's see how the volume side is looking
2016-05-03 16:50:29 fib1618: taking a cursory view of the sector charts
2016-05-03 16:50:49 fib1618: it would seem that much of the selling is focusing on commodities
2016-05-03 16:51:18 fib1618: nice to see that the XLE came within the window of our upside price target last week before turning south
2016-05-03 16:51:30 fib1618: though it remains a hold for now
2016-05-03 16:51:39 fib1618: we'll look at that in detail on Thursday
2016-05-03 16:52:03 fib1618: moving to the volume MCO's
2016-05-03 16:52:21 fib1618: and we seem to have a near term disagreement between the CO volume MCO and the Composite volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:52:40 fib1618: as the CO moved below its April lows
2016-05-03 16:52:44 fib1618: but the Composite did not
2016-05-03 16:53:03 fib1618: given our history with this indicator
2016-05-03 16:53:33 fib1618: it would be unusual to see a turnaround without some sort of complement between these two degrees of investment
2016-05-03 16:54:06 fib1618: so a lower low in the NYSE Composite volume MCO is likely before we'll see a bottom, so this could extend our expectation of a bounce until Thursday
2016-05-03 16:54:49 fib1618: the downside leadership that we've noted previously in the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's continues here
2016-05-03 16:55:05 fib1618: so to answer our question...yes...volume is leading breadth to the downside
2016-05-03 16:55:25 fib1618: and more assuredly so in the secondary market
2016-05-03 16:55:44 fib1618: as well as the SPX volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:55:54 fib1618: though with a reading of -51
2016-05-03 16:56:03 fib1618: a near term technical bounce is expected
2016-05-03 16:56:25 fib1618: then we get to the OEX and Dow volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:56:39 fib1618: and there we're diverging like their breadth counterparts
2016-05-03 16:57:12 fib1618: so...it would seem that most, if not all, of the willing sellers are now out of the "cream" issues
2016-05-03 16:57:50 fib1618: we are diverging though in the MID volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:58:09 fib1618: but not at all with the SML volume MCO
2016-05-03 16:58:37 fib1618: with the TM decidedly negative at this time
2016-05-03 16:58:46 fib1618: winding up today with a reading of -52
2016-05-03 16:58:50 fib1618: so...
2016-05-03 16:59:10 fib1618: it would seem that we're seeing some heavier than average selling right now
2016-05-03 16:59:50 fib1618: but a lot of it is being focused on secondary and those issues that tend not to have something to provide while waiting for things to work themselves out
2016-05-03 16:59:53 fib1618: overall...
2016-05-03 17:00:16 fib1618: we have been seeing good money flow patterns now for almost 3 months now
2016-05-03 17:00:32 fib1618: and so a pause to refresh wouldn't be surprising
2016-05-03 17:00:35 fib1618: intermediate term
2016-05-03 17:00:43 fib1618: we remain in good shape
2016-05-03 17:01:02 fib1618: though short term we seem to be at or near some sort of reflex point in prices
2016-05-03 17:02:04 fib1618: with many of the breadth and volume MCO's continuing to suggest shallow corrective activity at this time
2016-05-03 17:02:20 fib1618: looks like "hit and run" is back on the table
2016-05-03 17:03:11 fib1618: looking at the OBV's
2016-05-03 17:03:38 fib1618: and the NDX is getting mighty close to some sort of important bottom
2016-05-03 17:04:00 fib1618: just need one more emotional flush there to do it
2016-05-03 17:04:15 fib1618: otherwise
2016-05-03 17:04:21 fib1618: STVO's are neutral
2016-05-03 17:04:47 fib1618: and VTO's continuing to suggest an uptrend in progress...though weakening just a wee bit
2016-05-03 17:05:00 fib1618: ouch
2016-05-03 17:05:06 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.98
2016-05-03 17:05:23 fib1618: close enough to 2.00 to where an important bottom may be seen within the next week
2016-05-03 17:05:41 fib1618: Open 10 now "oversold" at 1.12
2016-05-03 17:06:01 fib1618: so from this point, it becomes more and more difficult for the sellers to push prices lower
2016-05-03 17:06:13 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.05
2016-05-03 17:06:27 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.08
2016-05-03 17:06:34 fib1618: after moving to "oversold" last Friday
2016-05-03 17:06:47 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.29
2016-05-03 17:06:57 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.13
2016-05-03 17:07:01 fib1618: "oversold"
2016-05-03 17:07:04 fib1618: so...
2016-05-03 17:07:41 fib1618: it would appear that the willing sellers have now unloaded their positions
2016-05-03 17:07:54 fib1618: and where we need the unwilling traders to capitulate
2016-05-03 17:08:44 fib1618: we do, however, have downside price targets that are likely to be met before we grab a foothold an climb higher again
2016-05-03 17:09:03 fib1618: but, so far, it appears to be a corrective process
2016-05-03 17:09:20 fib1618: though with the NASDAQ and NDX not being able to challenge their fall highs
2016-05-03 17:10:04 fib1618: we do seem to be needing some conviction by the buyers or we can be susceptible to bearish ambushes
2016-05-03 17:10:10 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-05-03 17:18:38 fib1618: +45
2016-05-03 17:18:47 fib1618: so we lost 5 points
2016-05-03 17:19:17 fib1618: the NAAD and NAUD lines though are playing EMA tag
2016-05-03 17:19:24 fib1618: but at this point
2016-05-03 17:19:36 fib1618: not too much damage is being seen at this early stage
2016-05-03 17:20:00 fib1618: but we should (hopefully) know better on Thursday
2016-05-03 17:20:06 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-03 17:21:29 fib1618: Apple is now at its February lows and bounce higher today
2016-05-03 17:21:38 fib1618: bad news though
2016-05-03 17:21:46 fib1618: the stock in a bearish configuration now
2016-05-03 17:22:11 fib1618: and it's going to take a couple of months to turn that around
2016-05-03 17:22:26 fib1618: what else got hit lately?
2016-05-03 17:22:49 fib1618: ouch
2016-05-03 17:23:04 fib1618: I just broadened the timeline out on AAPL
2016-05-03 17:23:09 fib1618: and no bueno with tops beneath tops controlling the price action
2016-05-03 17:23:18 thespookyone: nope
2016-05-03 17:23:51 fib1618: with $90 important support
2016-05-03 17:24:20 fib1618: trendline support at $75
2016-05-03 17:24:59 fib1618: when was Apple added to the Dow?
2016-05-03 17:25:18 fib1618: wow
2016-05-03 17:25:22 fib1618: March 2015
2016-05-03 17:25:36 fib1618: and look where the top is
2016-05-03 17:25:59 fib1618: what an amazing indicator inclusion and expulsion from the Dow is
2016-05-03 17:26:07 fib1618: you move in...you top
2016-05-03 17:26:19 fib1618: you move out and you rally like you haven't in years
2016-05-03 17:26:39 fib1618: look at T
2016-05-03 17:26:56 fib1618: that really is amazing
2016-05-03 17:27:30 fib1618: Apple is now down 31% since inclusion
2016-05-03 17:27:46 thespookyone: ouch
2016-05-03 17:27:58 fib1618: and AT&T is up 22%
2016-05-03 17:28:27 fib1618: and how about the timing of MSFT and INTC being included at the top in 2000?
2016-05-03 17:28:35 fib1618: what a kiss of death that is
2016-05-03 17:28:58 fib1618: fascinating how this works
2016-05-03 17:29:27 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-03 17:29:32 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-03 17:29:39 thespookyone: thx
2016-05-03 17:29:40 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days of trading
2016-05-03 17:29:47 fib1618: and we'll see who she looks on Thursday
2016-05-03 17:29:48 fib1618: good night
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