All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,418
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-05-31 16:00:22 fib1618: good day
2016-05-31 16:00:24 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-31 16:00:56 thespookyone: Great! Chopping away, you?
2016-05-31 16:01:04 fib1618: doing fine
2016-05-31 16:02:45 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-05-31 16:03:55 thespookyone: playing the extremes is nice here
2016-05-31 16:04:40 fib1618: [smile]
2016-05-31 16:05:02 fib1618: need one more minute
2016-05-31 16:05:33 dand64: What you bring to the table sure helps to provide clarity when other TA disciplines are just not getting it done.  (Like Elliot Wave lately)
2016-05-31 16:06:26 dand64: It's nice to have an idea what's going on under the surface.
2016-05-31 16:06:28 fib1618: thanks...but remember that Elliott is more of possible road map and not that of a guideline.
2016-05-31 16:07:09 fib1618: what we do know about Elliott is that it's a way to put a label on what should expect given basic technical information
2016-05-31 16:07:16 fib1618: for example
2016-05-31 16:07:27 fib1618: wave 3 and A show peak momentum
2016-05-31 16:07:32 fib1618: while waves 5 and C diverge
2016-05-31 16:08:14 fib1618: when you have both breadth and volume moving to high daily pluralities you know its a 3rd wave in progress
2016-05-31 16:08:24 fib1618: where you only need to figure out of what degree of trend
2016-05-31 16:09:01 fib1618: so without this foundational information at your finger tips
2016-05-31 16:09:06 fib1618: you're likely guessing
2016-05-31 16:09:18 fib1618: and your preferred count becomes your alternate
2016-05-31 16:09:22 fib1618: and you lose money
2016-05-31 16:09:31 fib1618: above all else
2016-05-31 16:09:38 fib1618: no matter what tool you use
2016-05-31 16:09:49 fib1618: you MUST have a start and stopping point before you enter the trade
2016-05-31 16:10:00 fib1618: as nothing is infallible
2016-05-31 16:10:19 fib1618: discipline and patience are the best tools at the end of the day
2016-05-31 16:10:32 fib1618: OK...
2016-05-31 16:10:49 fib1618: let's take look around and see what we have to work with
2016-05-31 16:11:23 fib1618: first thing of note
2016-05-31 16:11:34 fib1618: is that we had a large outside range day today on the NYA
2016-05-31 16:15:13 fib1618: but we also closed near the mid point of this same range
2016-05-31 16:15:36 fib1618: this would suggest that we have indecisive behavior at this time
2016-05-31 16:16:08 fib1618: which isn't too surprising based on what we're going to get as far as economic numbers this week
2016-05-31 16:16:18 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:16:32 fib1618: and we see that we had a small point change today
2016-05-31 16:16:42 fib1618: which also suggests indecision
2016-05-31 16:17:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:17:22 fib1618: and we also see that we are now attempting to close our gap resistance area
2016-05-31 16:17:46 fib1618: and will do so on any reading above +460
2016-05-31 16:18:29 fib1618: given that +500 is the point where we usually see enough fuel to provide "escape velocity" as it would pertain to prices
2016-05-31 16:18:50 fib1618: the sellers now need to step up with all claws
2016-05-31 16:19:13 fib1618: or otherwise they will let any chance of lower price lows get away from them
2016-05-31 16:19:26 fib1618: also on the buyers side
2016-05-31 16:19:53 fib1618: today was the 5th day of our possible ledge structure in the MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:20:07 fib1618: given that these structures rarely go beyond 4 trading days
2016-05-31 16:20:35 fib1618: this too suggests that the sellers need to step up here and now as well
2016-05-31 16:20:44 fib1618: let's see how the composite is doing
2016-05-31 16:20:51 thespookyone: I do like the look (structure) of this last small wave up, even if it needs to correct.
2016-05-31 16:21:32 fib1618: I would say that it's more textural then something that we need to be cautious about
2016-05-31 16:22:02 fib1618: but since we haven't as yet moved above the +25 level in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:22:10 fib1618: your caution is a valid one
2016-05-31 16:22:17 fib1618: that said
2016-05-31 16:22:29 fib1618: we also had a small point change tonight in the NYSE Composite MCO
2016-05-31 16:22:45 fib1618: so let's look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2016-05-31 16:22:53 fib1618: I do believe ADP comes out in the morning
2016-05-31 16:22:55 fib1618: let me check
2016-05-31 16:23:40 fib1618: comes out Thursday
2016-05-31 16:24:00 fib1618: ISM is tomorrow
2016-05-31 16:24:06 fib1618: in any event
2016-05-31 16:24:51 fib1618: we are at a point in the pattern where the bears really need to step up here for the simple reason that we saw quite a bit of strength moving into the secondaries last week
2016-05-31 16:24:56 fib1618: and looking at the charts above
2016-05-31 16:25:13 fib1618: the NASDAQ actually closed near the highs of the day
2016-05-31 16:25:25 fib1618: if their leadership continues
2016-05-31 16:25:38 fib1618: history suggests that the broader market will follow
2016-05-31 16:26:01 fib1618: back to the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:26:20 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that are right on the edge of attempting to close its gap resistance zone
2016-05-31 16:26:37 fib1618: so the next day or two will set the tone for the next week or so
2016-05-31 16:26:52 fib1618: where a failure to fill the gap will keep prices in and around current levels
2016-05-31 16:27:16 fib1618: and any fill of the gap resistance producing an upside acceleration in prices
2016-05-31 16:27:36 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ
2016-05-31 16:27:57 fib1618: and we see that we have now met our upside price target from last week of 4950
2016-05-31 16:28:18 fib1618: and we also have a small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:28:56 fib1618: with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM now showing good expansion gaps to the upside now
2016-05-31 16:29:56 fib1618: so any kind of good breadth plurality on Wednesday will then allow prices to move to their next upside target of around the 5100 level
2016-05-31 16:30:15 fib1618: also important to note
2016-05-31 16:30:36 fib1618: that, so far, we don't have any bearish MCO divergences with the recent price highs today
2016-05-31 16:31:03 fib1618: so this would suggest, as we talked about earlier, that this current move higher in the NASDAQ, is that of a 3rd wave
2016-05-31 16:31:41 fib1618: or...even more bullish...the first peak that sets up wave 1
2016-05-31 16:31:49 fib1618: in either case
2016-05-31 16:31:55 fib1618: this is not a finishing move in prices
2016-05-31 16:32:06 fib1618: that there will be higher highs still yet to come
2016-05-31 16:32:13 fib1618: label it as you wish [smile]
2016-05-31 16:32:37 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO continues to do very well
2016-05-31 16:32:49 fib1618: as it also came in with a small point change today
2016-05-31 16:33:01 fib1618: and more importantly
2016-05-31 16:33:30 fib1618: current natural resistance at the +75 level is not showing much in the way of exhaustion to the pattern
2016-05-31 16:34:12 fib1618: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM clearing both the hesitation point in mid May and the +250 level today
2016-05-31 16:34:33 fib1618: this would have very bullish implications if we see strong follow through on this by Thursday
2016-05-31 16:34:52 fib1618: on the slightly negative side
2016-05-31 16:35:06 fib1618: the 10% NDX MCO component is getting a bit extended here
2016-05-31 16:35:51 fib1618: but we have seen this indicator go beyond +200 in the past before we get any kind of shutdown in this fuel component
2016-05-31 16:36:28 fib1618: outside range day as well with the SPX today
2016-05-31 16:36:43 fib1618: but here we only closed below Friday's close
2016-05-31 16:36:59 fib1618: this would indicate that today was more of a "false start" kind of day
2016-05-31 16:37:26 fib1618: where the buyers attempted to push things their way early in the session
2016-05-31 16:37:41 fib1618: but something was announced (happened) that took the carpet out from under them
2016-05-31 16:37:58 fib1618: but this wasn't enough to deter them
2016-05-31 16:38:06 fib1618: and we closed in the middle of the range
2016-05-31 16:38:44 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO snapped back toward the +25 level in this effort
2016-05-31 16:39:07 fib1618: with the SPX breadth MCSUM just about closing its gap resistance zone
2016-05-31 16:39:29 fib1618: what we do know is that the majority of this strength is coming from the secondary issues
2016-05-31 16:39:46 fib1618: so if the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM joins in to close its gap zone
2016-05-31 16:40:12 fib1618: prices will then be able to move with more "fluidity" to the upside
2016-05-31 16:40:23 fib1618: "one for all...all for one"
2016-05-31 16:40:44 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:41:12 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that there was a higher concentration of selling with this basket of issues today
2016-05-31 16:41:39 fib1618: as we finished just a point or two above last weeks reaction lows
2016-05-31 16:42:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the OEX breadth MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:42:25 fib1618: and here we see we're up against to layers of resistance...both +500 and gap resistance
2016-05-31 16:42:40 fib1618: so in order for the broader market to begin to trend to the upside
2016-05-31 16:42:54 fib1618: we will now need to see buying pick up in the multinationals
2016-05-31 16:43:18 fib1618: this is also day 4 of our ledge formation in the OEX MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:43:35 fib1618: so Wednesday is shaping up to be a character day of some kind here
2016-05-31 16:44:12 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is almost identical to the OEX MCO
2016-05-31 16:44:50 fib1618: which would suggest that it's the heaviest weighted issues that are holding things back for the bulls
2016-05-31 16:45:40 fib1618: moving to the MID
2016-05-31 16:46:21 fib1618: and it looks like we're trying to break above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern
2016-05-31 16:46:26 fib1618: let me check the volume
2016-05-31 16:46:52 fib1618: yea...
2016-05-31 16:47:00 fib1618: higher than average volume today on the attempted breakout
2016-05-31 16:47:15 fib1618: in fact
2016-05-31 16:47:23 fib1618: it's the highest daily volume stick we've seen since the end of March
2016-05-31 16:47:32 fib1618: so the bulls control the pattern here
2016-05-31 16:48:04 fib1618: all we need is a bit more conviction to come in here for the trigger to take place
2016-05-31 16:48:13 fib1618: and if we get that follow through
2016-05-31 16:48:27 fib1618: the upside target for the inverse head and shoulders is...
2016-05-31 16:48:30 thespookyone: blew through 500 nicely, like they are prone to do
2016-05-31 16:48:48 fib1618: is about 1720
2016-05-31 16:49:10 thespookyone: sweet
2016-05-31 16:49:12 fib1618: looks like a false start
2016-05-31 16:49:21 fib1618: especially if the SML is in agreement
2016-05-31 16:49:44 fib1618: we have good texture as well in the MID breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:50:12 fib1618: with one more pump higher likely to get this trigger
2016-05-31 16:50:17 mojave: re: volume, EOM buying?
2016-05-31 16:50:26 fib1618: maybe
2016-05-31 16:50:34 fib1618: especially with the failure today
2016-05-31 16:50:34 mojave: 1.8B to buy on the close
2016-05-31 16:50:43 fib1618: must be a reason
2016-05-31 16:50:52 fib1618: that's why we need follow through
2016-05-31 16:51:07 fib1618: but the short term trend remains positive
2016-05-31 16:51:21 fib1618: and the intermediate term trend is now showing good post expansion to the upside
2016-05-31 16:51:27 fib1618: that's going to be hard to stop on a dime
2016-05-31 16:51:46 fib1618: (cruise ship theory)
2016-05-31 16:52:03 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:52:26 fib1618: as we come up to the +50 natural resistance area
2016-05-31 16:52:42 fib1618: and like the MID
2016-05-31 16:52:57 fib1618: the SML breadth MCSUM is showing good upside post expansion as well
2016-05-31 16:53:27 fib1618: which makes it less of a possibility that we're tracing out ledges in the high cap MCSUM's
2016-05-31 16:54:35 fib1618: and finally, looking at the TM breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:54:56 fib1618: and it's no surprise that we have a small point change here as well
2016-05-31 16:55:21 fib1618: and we have also closed the MCSUM gap resistance area today
2016-05-31 16:55:42 fib1618: with the +25 level now holding support in the MCO
2016-05-31 16:55:45 fib1618: so..
2016-05-31 16:56:13 fib1618: it would appear that we are now set to see some decisive action by traders in the next couple of days
2016-05-31 16:56:40 fib1618: as the market is coiling up and waiting for something to trigger the spring
2016-05-31 16:57:43 fib1618: took a quick look at the sectors and the XLK is the strongest sector currently
2016-05-31 16:58:05 fib1618: so it should be the area that will lead off...and continue to do so
2016-05-31 16:58:14 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's
2016-05-31 16:58:49 fib1618: and we have small point changes in both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2016-05-31 16:59:25 fib1618: with bottoms above bottoms controlling both patterns
2016-05-31 16:59:43 fib1618: looks like there isn't much selling going on right now
2016-05-31 17:00:01 fib1618: but there is enough buying to keep prices from moving lower in any important way
2016-05-31 17:00:35 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO continues to show powerful strength to the upside
2016-05-31 17:01:21 fib1618: and we can see the degree in which money is moving into the NASDAQ stocks by the large post expansion we see in the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2016-05-31 17:02:00 fib1618: we're seeing even better strength in the NDX volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:02:25 fib1618: but what's more important here is that the broader based NASDAQ volume MCSUM is leading the NDX volume MCSUM to the upside
2016-05-31 17:02:46 fib1618: in fact
2016-05-31 17:03:16 fib1618: the volume McClellan's are now suggesting that we will challenge the fall highs in the not too distant future
2016-05-31 17:03:26 fib1618: volume is also leading breadth in this marketplace
2016-05-31 17:03:34 fib1618: and we know that's a bullish combination
2016-05-31 17:04:24 fib1618: moving to the OEX volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:04:40 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that we moved to a lower low today by a couple of points today
2016-05-31 17:04:52 fib1618: this is not a positive thing near term
2016-05-31 17:05:07 fib1618: as it would suggest heavier selling in this basket of issues
2016-05-31 17:05:23 fib1618: but on the positive side
2016-05-31 17:05:37 fib1618: this same breakdown in pattern doesn't show up in either the SPX or Dow volume MCO's
2016-05-31 17:05:50 fib1618: so...could be end of month shenanigans
2016-05-31 17:06:14 fib1618: but one would think that this would had been executed last week
2016-05-31 17:06:35 fib1618: leave on Thursday and come back today to do a little housekeeping
2016-05-31 17:06:53 fib1618: we'll know more tomorrow
2016-05-31 17:07:19 fib1618: small point change in the MID volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:07:57 fib1618: and, so far, the MID volume MCSUM is continuing to work off the bottom it found at its zero line
2016-05-31 17:08:31 fib1618: wow...nice move today in the SML volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:08:46 fib1618: as it finally broke above its April highs today
2016-05-31 17:09:06 fib1618: and with it
2016-05-31 17:09:27 fib1618: the likelihood of a "fishhook" on the SML volume MCSUM has now reduced to almost nil
2016-05-31 17:10:04 fib1618: this is a bullish whisper that needs to be respected for what it may suggest
2016-05-31 17:10:24 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:10:50 fib1618: as it tries valiantly to hold on to the +50 level
2016-05-31 17:10:52 fib1618: so...
2016-05-31 17:11:13 fib1618: we have the secondary issues leading the markets higher
2016-05-31 17:11:37 fib1618: with some indices showing good volume leadership
2016-05-31 17:11:50 fib1618: and the general market, overall, at a compression point
2016-05-31 17:12:06 fib1618: given that all of the MCO's remain above their zero lines
2016-05-31 17:12:34 fib1618: the technical expectation of our small point changes tonight is for an upside resolution
2016-05-31 17:13:00 fib1618: and if this were to occur
2016-05-31 17:13:40 fib1618: how much strength is generated with this move will finally be able to give us a "timing" road map
2016-05-31 17:13:58 fib1618: so would appear that we're very close now to a tradable bottom
2016-05-31 17:14:20 fib1618: one of which where prices will trend for a 4-6 week period
2016-05-31 17:14:40 fib1618: guess it could had started a couple of weeks ago
2016-05-31 17:14:54 fib1618: but not without the confirmation we've been looking for
2016-05-31 17:15:01 fib1618: we'll see
2016-05-31 17:15:05 fib1618: on to the OBV's
2016-05-31 17:15:35 fib1618: STVO's remain "overbought"
2016-05-31 17:15:45 fib1618: so if we're going to accelerate to the upside here
2016-05-31 17:15:56 fib1618: we should begin to see more corrections on the fly
2016-05-31 17:16:41 fib1618: CVI's have eased off from last week's climactic activity
2016-05-31 17:17:06 fib1618: VTO's continue to move north, but not with a lot of vigor which could indicate a developing trend in progress
2016-05-31 17:17:25 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.02
2016-05-31 17:17:35 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.03
2016-05-31 17:17:41 fib1618: so minimally "oversold"
2016-05-31 17:17:57 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2016-05-31 17:18:07 fib1618: Open 10 at .78
2016-05-31 17:18:10 fib1618: so we're "overbought" there
2016-05-31 17:18:39 fib1618: as is the NASDAQ 21 day SMA of the TRINQ
2016-05-31 17:18:55 fib1618: TM TRIN at .81
2016-05-31 17:19:05 fib1618: Open 10 at .84
2016-05-31 17:19:11 fib1618: so...
2016-05-31 17:19:29 fib1618: we're getting to be a bit on the frothy side both in the NASDAQ and the TM
2016-05-31 17:19:43 fib1618: but we haven't as yet seen this kind of participation in the NYSE
2016-05-31 17:20:03 fib1618: one thought is that if we begin the game of correcting on the fly
2016-05-31 17:20:16 fib1618: money would rotate out of the NASDAQ and into the NYSE
2016-05-31 17:20:30 fib1618: and this would provide the correction we're looking for
2016-05-31 17:20:48 fib1618: still...there's a heck of a lot of liquidity out there
2016-05-31 17:21:10 fib1618: and the "cream stocks" could just rise to the top without taking away from the curds and whey
2016-05-31 17:21:25 fib1618: let's check the BETS
2016-05-31 17:22:40 fib1618: +65
2016-05-31 17:22:41 fib1618: "buy"
2016-05-31 17:23:04 fib1618: if this continues to improve on Thursday
2016-05-31 17:23:39 fib1618: then there won't be much to stop us from following its lead
2016-05-31 17:23:48 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-31 17:24:12 thespookyone: what of gold here?
2016-05-31 17:24:32 fib1618: checking
2016-05-31 17:24:55 fib1618: hammer stick today
2016-05-31 17:25:24 fib1618: but silver is weak
2016-05-31 17:25:30 fib1618: so I would wait for follow through
2016-05-31 17:25:44 fib1618: but you have above average volume on the reversal bar today
2016-05-31 17:25:54 fib1618: and you know what the A/D lines look like
2016-05-31 17:26:56 fib1618: looks like we got a bottom as well in the bonds
2016-05-31 17:28:03 fib1618: and my guess, based on the A/D data, is that interest rates on the 10 year are about to break out its symmetrical triangle to the downside
2016-05-31 17:28:49 fib1618: all in all
2016-05-31 17:29:11 fib1618: it looks like the data this week is going to show that further easing would be warranted by the FED
2016-05-31 17:29:38 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-31 17:29:48 thespookyone: thx
2016-05-31 17:29:52 mojave: ha - from your lips to Yellen's ear
2016-05-31 17:30:09 fib1618: [smile]
2016-05-31 17:30:14 fib1618: she doesn't listen to me
2016-05-31 17:30:17 mojave: sorry that sounded gross
2016-05-31 17:30:22 mojave: tks!
2016-05-31 17:30:26 fib1618: heck...she doesn't even listen to the market!
2016-05-31 17:30:39 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-31 17:30:42 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-31 17:30:47 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-05-31 17:30:54 fib1618: and we'll see what's happening on Thursday
2016-05-31 17:30:55 fib1618: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch