fib_1618
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2016-05-31 16:00:22 fib1618: good day 2016-05-31 16:00:24 fib1618: how is everyone? 2016-05-31 16:00:56 thespookyone: Great! Chopping away, you? 2016-05-31 16:01:04 fib1618: doing fine 2016-05-31 16:02:45 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2016-05-31 16:03:55 thespookyone: playing the extremes is nice here 2016-05-31 16:04:40 fib1618: 2016-05-31 16:05:02 fib1618: need one more minute 2016-05-31 16:05:33 dand64: What you bring to the table sure helps to provide clarity when other TA disciplines are just not getting it done. (Like Elliot Wave lately) 2016-05-31 16:06:26 dand64: It's nice to have an idea what's going on under the surface. 2016-05-31 16:06:28 fib1618: thanks...but remember that Elliott is more of possible road map and not that of a guideline. 2016-05-31 16:07:09 fib1618: what we do know about Elliott is that it's a way to put a label on what should expect given basic technical information 2016-05-31 16:07:16 fib1618: for example 2016-05-31 16:07:27 fib1618: wave 3 and A show peak momentum 2016-05-31 16:07:32 fib1618: while waves 5 and C diverge 2016-05-31 16:08:14 fib1618: when you have both breadth and volume moving to high daily pluralities you know its a 3rd wave in progress 2016-05-31 16:08:24 fib1618: where you only need to figure out of what degree of trend 2016-05-31 16:09:01 fib1618: so without this foundational information at your finger tips 2016-05-31 16:09:06 fib1618: you're likely guessing 2016-05-31 16:09:18 fib1618: and your preferred count becomes your alternate 2016-05-31 16:09:22 fib1618: and you lose money 2016-05-31 16:09:31 fib1618: above all else 2016-05-31 16:09:38 fib1618: no matter what tool you use 2016-05-31 16:09:49 fib1618: you MUST have a start and stopping point before you enter the trade 2016-05-31 16:10:00 fib1618: as nothing is infallible 2016-05-31 16:10:19 fib1618: discipline and patience are the best tools at the end of the day 2016-05-31 16:10:32 fib1618: OK... 2016-05-31 16:10:49 fib1618: let's take look around and see what we have to work with 2016-05-31 16:11:23 fib1618: first thing of note 2016-05-31 16:11:34 fib1618: is that we had a large outside range day today on the NYA 2016-05-31 16:15:13 fib1618: but we also closed near the mid point of this same range 2016-05-31 16:15:36 fib1618: this would suggest that we have indecisive behavior at this time 2016-05-31 16:16:08 fib1618: which isn't too surprising based on what we're going to get as far as economic numbers this week 2016-05-31 16:16:18 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO 2016-05-31 16:16:32 fib1618: and we see that we had a small point change today 2016-05-31 16:16:42 fib1618: which also suggests indecision 2016-05-31 16:17:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM 2016-05-31 16:17:22 fib1618: and we also see that we are now attempting to close our gap resistance area 2016-05-31 16:17:46 fib1618: and will do so on any reading above +460 2016-05-31 16:18:29 fib1618: given that +500 is the point where we usually see enough fuel to provide "escape velocity" as it would pertain to prices 2016-05-31 16:18:50 fib1618: the sellers now need to step up with all claws 2016-05-31 16:19:13 fib1618: or otherwise they will let any chance of lower price lows get away from them 2016-05-31 16:19:26 fib1618: also on the buyers side 2016-05-31 16:19:53 fib1618: today was the 5th day of our possible ledge structure in the MCSUM 2016-05-31 16:20:07 fib1618: given that these structures rarely go beyond 4 trading days 2016-05-31 16:20:35 fib1618: this too suggests that the sellers need to step up here and now as well 2016-05-31 16:20:44 fib1618: let's see how the composite is doing 2016-05-31 16:20:51 thespookyone: I do like the look (structure) of this last small wave up, even if it needs to correct. 2016-05-31 16:21:32 fib1618: I would say that it's more textural then something that we need to be cautious about 2016-05-31 16:22:02 fib1618: but since we haven't as yet moved above the +25 level in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO 2016-05-31 16:22:10 fib1618: your caution is a valid one 2016-05-31 16:22:17 fib1618: that said 2016-05-31 16:22:29 fib1618: we also had a small point change tonight in the NYSE Composite MCO 2016-05-31 16:22:45 fib1618: so let's look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions 2016-05-31 16:22:53 fib1618: I do believe ADP comes out in the morning 2016-05-31 16:22:55 fib1618: let me check 2016-05-31 16:23:40 fib1618: no...it comes out Thursday 2016-05-31 16:24:00 fib1618: ISM is tomorrow 2016-05-31 16:24:06 fib1618: in any event 2016-05-31 16:24:51 fib1618: we are at a point in the pattern where the bears really need to step up here for the simple reason that we saw quite a bit of strength moving into the secondaries last week 2016-05-31 16:24:56 fib1618: and looking at the charts above 2016-05-31 16:25:13 fib1618: the NASDAQ actually closed near the highs of the day 2016-05-31 16:25:25 fib1618: if their leadership continues 2016-05-31 16:25:38 fib1618: history suggests that the broader market will follow 2016-05-31 16:26:01 fib1618: back to the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM 2016-05-31 16:26:20 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that are right on the edge of attempting to close its gap resistance zone 2016-05-31 16:26:37 fib1618: so the next day or two will set the tone for the next week or so 2016-05-31 16:26:52 fib1618: where a failure to fill the gap will keep prices in and around current levels 2016-05-31 16:27:16 fib1618: and any fill of the gap resistance producing an upside acceleration in prices 2016-05-31 16:27:36 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ 2016-05-31 16:27:57 fib1618: and we see that we have now met our upside price target from last week of 4950 2016-05-31 16:28:18 fib1618: and we also have a small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2016-05-31 16:28:56 fib1618: with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM now showing good expansion gaps to the upside now 2016-05-31 16:29:56 fib1618: so any kind of good breadth plurality on Wednesday will then allow prices to move to their next upside target of around the 5100 level 2016-05-31 16:30:15 fib1618: also important to note 2016-05-31 16:30:36 fib1618: that, so far, we don't have any bearish MCO divergences with the recent price highs today 2016-05-31 16:31:03 fib1618: so this would suggest, as we talked about earlier, that this current move higher in the NASDAQ, is that of a 3rd wave 2016-05-31 16:31:41 fib1618: or...even more bullish...the first peak that sets up wave 1 2016-05-31 16:31:49 fib1618: in either case 2016-05-31 16:31:55 fib1618: this is not a finishing move in prices 2016-05-31 16:32:06 fib1618: that there will be higher highs still yet to come 2016-05-31 16:32:13 fib1618: label it as you wish 2016-05-31 16:32:37 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO continues to do very well 2016-05-31 16:32:49 fib1618: as it also came in with a small point change today 2016-05-31 16:33:01 fib1618: and more importantly 2016-05-31 16:33:30 fib1618: current natural resistance at the +75 level is not showing much in the way of exhaustion to the pattern 2016-05-31 16:34:12 fib1618: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM clearing both the hesitation point in mid May and the +250 level today 2016-05-31 16:34:33 fib1618: this would have very bullish implications if we see strong follow through on this by Thursday 2016-05-31 16:34:52 fib1618: on the slightly negative side 2016-05-31 16:35:06 fib1618: the 10% NDX MCO component is getting a bit extended here 2016-05-31 16:35:51 fib1618: but we have seen this indicator go beyond +200 in the past before we get any kind of shutdown in this fuel component 2016-05-31 16:36:28 fib1618: outside range day as well with the SPX today 2016-05-31 16:36:43 fib1618: but here we only closed below Friday's close 2016-05-31 16:36:59 fib1618: this would indicate that today was more of a "false start" kind of day 2016-05-31 16:37:26 fib1618: where the buyers attempted to push things their way early in the session 2016-05-31 16:37:41 fib1618: but something was announced (happened) that took the carpet out from under them 2016-05-31 16:37:58 fib1618: but this wasn't enough to deter them 2016-05-31 16:38:06 fib1618: and we closed in the middle of the range 2016-05-31 16:38:44 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO snapped back toward the +25 level in this effort 2016-05-31 16:39:07 fib1618: with the SPX breadth MCSUM just about closing its gap resistance zone 2016-05-31 16:39:29 fib1618: what we do know is that the majority of this strength is coming from the secondary issues 2016-05-31 16:39:46 fib1618: so if the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM joins in to close its gap zone 2016-05-31 16:40:12 fib1618: prices will then be able to move with more "fluidity" to the upside 2016-05-31 16:40:23 fib1618: "one for all...all for one" 2016-05-31 16:40:44 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO 2016-05-31 16:41:12 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that there was a higher concentration of selling with this basket of issues today 2016-05-31 16:41:39 fib1618: as we finished just a point or two above last weeks reaction lows 2016-05-31 16:42:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the OEX breadth MCSUM 2016-05-31 16:42:25 fib1618: and here we see we're up against to layers of resistance...both +500 and gap resistance 2016-05-31 16:42:40 fib1618: so in order for the broader market to begin to trend to the upside 2016-05-31 16:42:54 fib1618: we will now need to see buying pick up in the multinationals 2016-05-31 16:43:18 fib1618: this is also day 4 of our ledge formation in the OEX MCSUM 2016-05-31 16:43:35 fib1618: so Wednesday is shaping up to be a character day of some kind here 2016-05-31 16:44:12 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is almost identical to the OEX MCO 2016-05-31 16:44:50 fib1618: which would suggest that it's the heaviest weighted issues that are holding things back for the bulls 2016-05-31 16:45:40 fib1618: moving to the MID 2016-05-31 16:46:21 fib1618: and it looks like we're trying to break above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern 2016-05-31 16:46:26 fib1618: let me check the volume 2016-05-31 16:46:52 fib1618: yea... 2016-05-31 16:47:00 fib1618: higher than average volume today on the attempted breakout 2016-05-31 16:47:15 fib1618: in fact 2016-05-31 16:47:23 fib1618: it's the highest daily volume stick we've seen since the end of March 2016-05-31 16:47:32 fib1618: so the bulls control the pattern here 2016-05-31 16:48:04 fib1618: all we need is a bit more conviction to come in here for the trigger to take place 2016-05-31 16:48:13 fib1618: and if we get that follow through 2016-05-31 16:48:27 fib1618: the upside target for the inverse head and shoulders is... 2016-05-31 16:48:30 thespookyone: blew through 500 nicely, like they are prone to do 2016-05-31 16:48:48 fib1618: is about 1720 2016-05-31 16:49:10 thespookyone: sweet 2016-05-31 16:49:12 fib1618: yes...it looks like a false start 2016-05-31 16:49:21 fib1618: especially if the SML is in agreement 2016-05-31 16:49:44 fib1618: we have good texture as well in the MID breadth MCO 2016-05-31 16:50:12 fib1618: with one more pump higher likely to get this trigger 2016-05-31 16:50:17 mojave: re: volume, EOM buying? 2016-05-31 16:50:26 fib1618: maybe 2016-05-31 16:50:34 fib1618: especially with the failure today 2016-05-31 16:50:34 mojave: 1.8B to buy on the close 2016-05-31 16:50:43 fib1618: must be a reason 2016-05-31 16:50:52 fib1618: that's why we need follow through 2016-05-31 16:51:07 fib1618: but the short term trend remains positive 2016-05-31 16:51:21 fib1618: and the intermediate term trend is now showing good post expansion to the upside 2016-05-31 16:51:27 fib1618: that's going to be hard to stop on a dime 2016-05-31 16:51:46 fib1618: (cruise ship theory) 2016-05-31 16:52:03 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO 2016-05-31 16:52:26 fib1618: as we come up to the +50 natural resistance area 2016-05-31 16:52:42 fib1618: and like the MID 2016-05-31 16:52:57 fib1618: the SML breadth MCSUM is showing good upside post expansion as well 2016-05-31 16:53:27 fib1618: which makes it less of a possibility that we're tracing out ledges in the high cap MCSUM's 2016-05-31 16:54:35 fib1618: and finally, looking at the TM breadth MCO 2016-05-31 16:54:56 fib1618: and it's no surprise that we have a small point change here as well 2016-05-31 16:55:21 fib1618: and we have also closed the MCSUM gap resistance area today 2016-05-31 16:55:42 fib1618: with the +25 level now holding support in the MCO 2016-05-31 16:55:45 fib1618: so.. 2016-05-31 16:56:13 fib1618: it would appear that we are now set to see some decisive action by traders in the next couple of days 2016-05-31 16:56:40 fib1618: as the market is coiling up and waiting for something to trigger the spring 2016-05-31 16:57:43 fib1618: took a quick look at the sectors and the XLK is the strongest sector currently 2016-05-31 16:58:05 fib1618: so it should be the area that will lead off...and continue to do so 2016-05-31 16:58:14 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's 2016-05-31 16:58:49 fib1618: and we have small point changes in both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's 2016-05-31 16:59:25 fib1618: with bottoms above bottoms controlling both patterns 2016-05-31 16:59:43 fib1618: looks like there isn't much selling going on right now 2016-05-31 17:00:01 fib1618: but there is enough buying to keep prices from moving lower in any important way 2016-05-31 17:00:35 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO continues to show powerful strength to the upside 2016-05-31 17:01:21 fib1618: and we can see the degree in which money is moving into the NASDAQ stocks by the large post expansion we see in the NASDAQ volume MCSUM 2016-05-31 17:02:00 fib1618: we're seeing even better strength in the NDX volume MCO 2016-05-31 17:02:25 fib1618: but what's more important here is that the broader based NASDAQ volume MCSUM is leading the NDX volume MCSUM to the upside 2016-05-31 17:02:46 fib1618: in fact 2016-05-31 17:03:16 fib1618: the volume McClellan's are now suggesting that we will challenge the fall highs in the not too distant future 2016-05-31 17:03:26 fib1618: volume is also leading breadth in this marketplace 2016-05-31 17:03:34 fib1618: and we know that's a bullish combination 2016-05-31 17:04:24 fib1618: moving to the OEX volume MCO 2016-05-31 17:04:40 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that we moved to a lower low today by a couple of points today 2016-05-31 17:04:52 fib1618: this is not a positive thing near term 2016-05-31 17:05:07 fib1618: as it would suggest heavier selling in this basket of issues 2016-05-31 17:05:23 fib1618: but on the positive side 2016-05-31 17:05:37 fib1618: this same breakdown in pattern doesn't show up in either the SPX or Dow volume MCO's 2016-05-31 17:05:50 fib1618: so...could be end of month shenanigans 2016-05-31 17:06:14 fib1618: but one would think that this would had been executed last week 2016-05-31 17:06:35 fib1618: unless...you leave on Thursday and come back today to do a little housekeeping 2016-05-31 17:06:53 fib1618: we'll know more tomorrow 2016-05-31 17:07:19 fib1618: small point change in the MID volume MCO 2016-05-31 17:07:57 fib1618: and, so far, the MID volume MCSUM is continuing to work off the bottom it found at its zero line 2016-05-31 17:08:31 fib1618: wow...nice move today in the SML volume MCO 2016-05-31 17:08:46 fib1618: as it finally broke above its April highs today 2016-05-31 17:09:06 fib1618: and with it 2016-05-31 17:09:27 fib1618: the likelihood of a "fishhook" on the SML volume MCSUM has now reduced to almost nil 2016-05-31 17:10:04 fib1618: this is a bullish whisper that needs to be respected for what it may suggest 2016-05-31 17:10:24 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO 2016-05-31 17:10:50 fib1618: as it tries valiantly to hold on to the +50 level 2016-05-31 17:10:52 fib1618: so... 2016-05-31 17:11:13 fib1618: we have the secondary issues leading the markets higher 2016-05-31 17:11:37 fib1618: with some indices showing good volume leadership 2016-05-31 17:11:50 fib1618: and the general market, overall, at a compression point 2016-05-31 17:12:06 fib1618: given that all of the MCO's remain above their zero lines 2016-05-31 17:12:34 fib1618: the technical expectation of our small point changes tonight is for an upside resolution 2016-05-31 17:13:00 fib1618: and if this were to occur 2016-05-31 17:13:40 fib1618: how much strength is generated with this move will finally be able to give us a "timing" road map 2016-05-31 17:13:58 fib1618: so far...it would appear that we're very close now to a tradable bottom 2016-05-31 17:14:20 fib1618: one of which where prices will trend for a 4-6 week period 2016-05-31 17:14:40 fib1618: guess it could had started a couple of weeks ago 2016-05-31 17:14:54 fib1618: but not without the confirmation we've been looking for 2016-05-31 17:15:01 fib1618: we'll see 2016-05-31 17:15:05 fib1618: on to the OBV's 2016-05-31 17:15:35 fib1618: STVO's remain "overbought" 2016-05-31 17:15:45 fib1618: so if we're going to accelerate to the upside here 2016-05-31 17:15:56 fib1618: we should begin to see more corrections on the fly 2016-05-31 17:16:41 fib1618: CVI's have eased off from last week's climactic activity 2016-05-31 17:17:06 fib1618: VTO's continue to move north, but not with a lot of vigor which could indicate a developing trend in progress 2016-05-31 17:17:25 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.02 2016-05-31 17:17:35 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.03 2016-05-31 17:17:41 fib1618: so minimally "oversold" 2016-05-31 17:17:57 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .70 2016-05-31 17:18:07 fib1618: Open 10 at .78 2016-05-31 17:18:10 fib1618: so we're "overbought" there 2016-05-31 17:18:39 fib1618: as is the NASDAQ 21 day SMA of the TRINQ 2016-05-31 17:18:55 fib1618: TM TRIN at .81 2016-05-31 17:19:05 fib1618: Open 10 at .84 2016-05-31 17:19:11 fib1618: so... 2016-05-31 17:19:29 fib1618: we're getting to be a bit on the frothy side both in the NASDAQ and the TM 2016-05-31 17:19:43 fib1618: but we haven't as yet seen this kind of participation in the NYSE 2016-05-31 17:20:03 fib1618: one thought is that if we begin the game of correcting on the fly 2016-05-31 17:20:16 fib1618: money would rotate out of the NASDAQ and into the NYSE 2016-05-31 17:20:30 fib1618: and this would provide the correction we're looking for 2016-05-31 17:20:48 fib1618: still...there's a heck of a lot of liquidity out there 2016-05-31 17:21:10 fib1618: and the "cream stocks" could just rise to the top without taking away from the curds and whey 2016-05-31 17:21:25 fib1618: let's check the BETS 2016-05-31 17:22:40 fib1618: +65 2016-05-31 17:22:41 fib1618: "buy" 2016-05-31 17:23:04 fib1618: if this continues to improve on Thursday 2016-05-31 17:23:39 fib1618: then there won't be much to stop us from following its lead 2016-05-31 17:23:48 fib1618: anything else? 2016-05-31 17:24:12 thespookyone: what of gold here? 2016-05-31 17:24:32 fib1618: checking 2016-05-31 17:24:55 fib1618: hammer stick today 2016-05-31 17:25:24 fib1618: but silver is weak 2016-05-31 17:25:30 fib1618: so I would wait for follow through 2016-05-31 17:25:44 fib1618: but you have above average volume on the reversal bar today 2016-05-31 17:25:54 fib1618: and you know what the A/D lines look like 2016-05-31 17:26:56 fib1618: looks like we got a bottom as well in the bonds 2016-05-31 17:28:03 fib1618: and my guess, based on the A/D data, is that interest rates on the 10 year are about to break out its symmetrical triangle to the downside 2016-05-31 17:28:49 fib1618: all in all 2016-05-31 17:29:11 fib1618: it looks like the data this week is going to show that further easing would be warranted by the FED 2016-05-31 17:29:38 fib1618: anything else? 2016-05-31 17:29:48 thespookyone: thx 2016-05-31 17:29:52 mojave: ha - from your lips to Yellen's ear 2016-05-31 17:30:09 fib1618: 2016-05-31 17:30:14 fib1618: she doesn't listen to me 2016-05-31 17:30:17 mojave: sorry that sounded gross 2016-05-31 17:30:22 mojave: tks! 2016-05-31 17:30:26 fib1618: heck...she doesn't even listen to the market! 2016-05-31 17:30:39 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else 2016-05-31 17:30:42 fib1618: I'm going to take off 2016-05-31 17:30:47 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days 2016-05-31 17:30:54 fib1618: and we'll see what's happening on Thursday 2016-05-31 17:30:55 fib1618: good night
__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977