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Technical Watch > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 5/31/16
 
 


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fib_1618

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Posted Reply with quote  #1 
2016-05-31 16:00:22 fib1618: good day
2016-05-31 16:00:24 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-31 16:00:56 thespookyone: Great! Chopping away, you?
2016-05-31 16:01:04 fib1618: doing fine
2016-05-31 16:02:45 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-05-31 16:03:55 thespookyone: playing the extremes is nice here
2016-05-31 16:04:40 fib1618: [smile]
2016-05-31 16:05:02 fib1618: need one more minute
2016-05-31 16:05:33 dand64: What you bring to the table sure helps to provide clarity when other TA disciplines are just not getting it done.  (Like Elliot Wave lately)
2016-05-31 16:06:26 dand64: It's nice to have an idea what's going on under the surface.
2016-05-31 16:06:28 fib1618: thanks...but remember that Elliott is more of possible road map and not that of a guideline.
2016-05-31 16:07:09 fib1618: what we do know about Elliott is that it's a way to put a label on what should expect given basic technical information
2016-05-31 16:07:16 fib1618: for example
2016-05-31 16:07:27 fib1618: wave 3 and A show peak momentum
2016-05-31 16:07:32 fib1618: while waves 5 and C diverge
2016-05-31 16:08:14 fib1618: when you have both breadth and volume moving to high daily pluralities you know its a 3rd wave in progress
2016-05-31 16:08:24 fib1618: where you only need to figure out of what degree of trend
2016-05-31 16:09:01 fib1618: so without this foundational information at your finger tips
2016-05-31 16:09:06 fib1618: you're likely guessing
2016-05-31 16:09:18 fib1618: and your preferred count becomes your alternate
2016-05-31 16:09:22 fib1618: and you lose money
2016-05-31 16:09:31 fib1618: above all else
2016-05-31 16:09:38 fib1618: no matter what tool you use
2016-05-31 16:09:49 fib1618: you MUST have a start and stopping point before you enter the trade
2016-05-31 16:10:00 fib1618: as nothing is infallible
2016-05-31 16:10:19 fib1618: discipline and patience are the best tools at the end of the day
2016-05-31 16:10:32 fib1618: OK...
2016-05-31 16:10:49 fib1618: let's take look around and see what we have to work with
2016-05-31 16:11:23 fib1618: first thing of note
2016-05-31 16:11:34 fib1618: is that we had a large outside range day today on the NYA
2016-05-31 16:15:13 fib1618: but we also closed near the mid point of this same range
2016-05-31 16:15:36 fib1618: this would suggest that we have indecisive behavior at this time
2016-05-31 16:16:08 fib1618: which isn't too surprising based on what we're going to get as far as economic numbers this week
2016-05-31 16:16:18 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:16:32 fib1618: and we see that we had a small point change today
2016-05-31 16:16:42 fib1618: which also suggests indecision
2016-05-31 16:17:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:17:22 fib1618: and we also see that we are now attempting to close our gap resistance area
2016-05-31 16:17:46 fib1618: and will do so on any reading above +460
2016-05-31 16:18:29 fib1618: given that +500 is the point where we usually see enough fuel to provide "escape velocity" as it would pertain to prices
2016-05-31 16:18:50 fib1618: the sellers now need to step up with all claws
2016-05-31 16:19:13 fib1618: or otherwise they will let any chance of lower price lows get away from them
2016-05-31 16:19:26 fib1618: also on the buyers side
2016-05-31 16:19:53 fib1618: today was the 5th day of our possible ledge structure in the MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:20:07 fib1618: given that these structures rarely go beyond 4 trading days
2016-05-31 16:20:35 fib1618: this too suggests that the sellers need to step up here and now as well
2016-05-31 16:20:44 fib1618: let's see how the composite is doing
2016-05-31 16:20:51 thespookyone: I do like the look (structure) of this last small wave up, even if it needs to correct.
2016-05-31 16:21:32 fib1618: I would say that it's more textural then something that we need to be cautious about
2016-05-31 16:22:02 fib1618: but since we haven't as yet moved above the +25 level in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:22:10 fib1618: your caution is a valid one
2016-05-31 16:22:17 fib1618: that said
2016-05-31 16:22:29 fib1618: we also had a small point change tonight in the NYSE Composite MCO
2016-05-31 16:22:45 fib1618: so let's look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2016-05-31 16:22:53 fib1618: I do believe ADP comes out in the morning
2016-05-31 16:22:55 fib1618: let me check
2016-05-31 16:23:40 fib1618: no...it comes out Thursday
2016-05-31 16:24:00 fib1618: ISM is tomorrow
2016-05-31 16:24:06 fib1618: in any event
2016-05-31 16:24:51 fib1618: we are at a point in the pattern where the bears really need to step up here for the simple reason that we saw quite a bit of strength moving into the secondaries last week
2016-05-31 16:24:56 fib1618: and looking at the charts above
2016-05-31 16:25:13 fib1618: the NASDAQ actually closed near the highs of the day
2016-05-31 16:25:25 fib1618: if their leadership continues
2016-05-31 16:25:38 fib1618: history suggests that the broader market will follow
2016-05-31 16:26:01 fib1618: back to the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:26:20 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that are right on the edge of attempting to close its gap resistance zone
2016-05-31 16:26:37 fib1618: so the next day or two will set the tone for the next week or so
2016-05-31 16:26:52 fib1618: where a failure to fill the gap will keep prices in and around current levels
2016-05-31 16:27:16 fib1618: and any fill of the gap resistance producing an upside acceleration in prices
2016-05-31 16:27:36 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ
2016-05-31 16:27:57 fib1618: and we see that we have now met our upside price target from last week of 4950
2016-05-31 16:28:18 fib1618: and we also have a small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:28:56 fib1618: with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM now showing good expansion gaps to the upside now
2016-05-31 16:29:56 fib1618: so any kind of good breadth plurality on Wednesday will then allow prices to move to their next upside target of around the 5100 level
2016-05-31 16:30:15 fib1618: also important to note
2016-05-31 16:30:36 fib1618: that, so far, we don't have any bearish MCO divergences with the recent price highs today
2016-05-31 16:31:03 fib1618: so this would suggest, as we talked about earlier, that this current move higher in the NASDAQ, is that of a 3rd wave
2016-05-31 16:31:41 fib1618: or...even more bullish...the first peak that sets up wave 1
2016-05-31 16:31:49 fib1618: in either case
2016-05-31 16:31:55 fib1618: this is not a finishing move in prices
2016-05-31 16:32:06 fib1618: that there will be higher highs still yet to come
2016-05-31 16:32:13 fib1618: label it as you wish [smile]
2016-05-31 16:32:37 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO continues to do very well
2016-05-31 16:32:49 fib1618: as it also came in with a small point change today
2016-05-31 16:33:01 fib1618: and more importantly
2016-05-31 16:33:30 fib1618: current natural resistance at the +75 level is not showing much in the way of exhaustion to the pattern
2016-05-31 16:34:12 fib1618: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM clearing both the hesitation point in mid May and the +250 level today
2016-05-31 16:34:33 fib1618: this would have very bullish implications if we see strong follow through on this by Thursday
2016-05-31 16:34:52 fib1618: on the slightly negative side
2016-05-31 16:35:06 fib1618: the 10% NDX MCO component is getting a bit extended here
2016-05-31 16:35:51 fib1618: but we have seen this indicator go beyond +200 in the past before we get any kind of shutdown in this fuel component
2016-05-31 16:36:28 fib1618: outside range day as well with the SPX today
2016-05-31 16:36:43 fib1618: but here we only closed below Friday's close
2016-05-31 16:36:59 fib1618: this would indicate that today was more of a "false start" kind of day
2016-05-31 16:37:26 fib1618: where the buyers attempted to push things their way early in the session
2016-05-31 16:37:41 fib1618: but something was announced (happened) that took the carpet out from under them
2016-05-31 16:37:58 fib1618: but this wasn't enough to deter them
2016-05-31 16:38:06 fib1618: and we closed in the middle of the range
2016-05-31 16:38:44 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO snapped back toward the +25 level in this effort
2016-05-31 16:39:07 fib1618: with the SPX breadth MCSUM just about closing its gap resistance zone
2016-05-31 16:39:29 fib1618: what we do know is that the majority of this strength is coming from the secondary issues
2016-05-31 16:39:46 fib1618: so if the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM joins in to close its gap zone
2016-05-31 16:40:12 fib1618: prices will then be able to move with more "fluidity" to the upside
2016-05-31 16:40:23 fib1618: "one for all...all for one"
2016-05-31 16:40:44 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:41:12 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that there was a higher concentration of selling with this basket of issues today
2016-05-31 16:41:39 fib1618: as we finished just a point or two above last weeks reaction lows
2016-05-31 16:42:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the OEX breadth MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:42:25 fib1618: and here we see we're up against to layers of resistance...both +500 and gap resistance
2016-05-31 16:42:40 fib1618: so in order for the broader market to begin to trend to the upside
2016-05-31 16:42:54 fib1618: we will now need to see buying pick up in the multinationals
2016-05-31 16:43:18 fib1618: this is also day 4 of our ledge formation in the OEX MCSUM
2016-05-31 16:43:35 fib1618: so Wednesday is shaping up to be a character day of some kind here
2016-05-31 16:44:12 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is almost identical to the OEX MCO
2016-05-31 16:44:50 fib1618: which would suggest that it's the heaviest weighted issues that are holding things back for the bulls
2016-05-31 16:45:40 fib1618: moving to the MID
2016-05-31 16:46:21 fib1618: and it looks like we're trying to break above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern
2016-05-31 16:46:26 fib1618: let me check the volume
2016-05-31 16:46:52 fib1618: yea...
2016-05-31 16:47:00 fib1618: higher than average volume today on the attempted breakout
2016-05-31 16:47:15 fib1618: in fact
2016-05-31 16:47:23 fib1618: it's the highest daily volume stick we've seen since the end of March
2016-05-31 16:47:32 fib1618: so the bulls control the pattern here
2016-05-31 16:48:04 fib1618: all we need is a bit more conviction to come in here for the trigger to take place
2016-05-31 16:48:13 fib1618: and if we get that follow through
2016-05-31 16:48:27 fib1618: the upside target for the inverse head and shoulders is...
2016-05-31 16:48:30 thespookyone: blew through 500 nicely, like they are prone to do
2016-05-31 16:48:48 fib1618: is about 1720
2016-05-31 16:49:10 thespookyone: sweet
2016-05-31 16:49:12 fib1618: yes...it looks like a false start
2016-05-31 16:49:21 fib1618: especially if the SML is in agreement
2016-05-31 16:49:44 fib1618: we have good texture as well in the MID breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:50:12 fib1618: with one more pump higher likely to get this trigger
2016-05-31 16:50:17 mojave: re: volume, EOM buying?
2016-05-31 16:50:26 fib1618: maybe
2016-05-31 16:50:34 fib1618: especially with the failure today
2016-05-31 16:50:34 mojave: 1.8B to buy on the close
2016-05-31 16:50:43 fib1618: must be a reason
2016-05-31 16:50:52 fib1618: that's why we need follow through
2016-05-31 16:51:07 fib1618: but the short term trend remains positive
2016-05-31 16:51:21 fib1618: and the intermediate term trend is now showing good post expansion to the upside
2016-05-31 16:51:27 fib1618: that's going to be hard to stop on a dime
2016-05-31 16:51:46 fib1618: (cruise ship theory)
2016-05-31 16:52:03 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:52:26 fib1618: as we come up to the +50 natural resistance area
2016-05-31 16:52:42 fib1618: and like the MID
2016-05-31 16:52:57 fib1618: the SML breadth MCSUM is showing good upside post expansion as well
2016-05-31 16:53:27 fib1618: which makes it less of a possibility that we're tracing out ledges in the high cap MCSUM's
2016-05-31 16:54:35 fib1618: and finally, looking at the TM breadth MCO
2016-05-31 16:54:56 fib1618: and it's no surprise that we have a small point change here as well
2016-05-31 16:55:21 fib1618: and we have also closed the MCSUM gap resistance area today
2016-05-31 16:55:42 fib1618: with the +25 level now holding support in the MCO
2016-05-31 16:55:45 fib1618: so..
2016-05-31 16:56:13 fib1618: it would appear that we are now set to see some decisive action by traders in the next couple of days
2016-05-31 16:56:40 fib1618: as the market is coiling up and waiting for something to trigger the spring
2016-05-31 16:57:43 fib1618: took a quick look at the sectors and the XLK is the strongest sector currently
2016-05-31 16:58:05 fib1618: so it should be the area that will lead off...and continue to do so
2016-05-31 16:58:14 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's
2016-05-31 16:58:49 fib1618: and we have small point changes in both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2016-05-31 16:59:25 fib1618: with bottoms above bottoms controlling both patterns
2016-05-31 16:59:43 fib1618: looks like there isn't much selling going on right now
2016-05-31 17:00:01 fib1618: but there is enough buying to keep prices from moving lower in any important way
2016-05-31 17:00:35 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO continues to show powerful strength to the upside
2016-05-31 17:01:21 fib1618: and we can see the degree in which money is moving into the NASDAQ stocks by the large post expansion we see in the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2016-05-31 17:02:00 fib1618: we're seeing even better strength in the NDX volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:02:25 fib1618: but what's more important here is that the broader based NASDAQ volume MCSUM is leading the NDX volume MCSUM to the upside
2016-05-31 17:02:46 fib1618: in fact
2016-05-31 17:03:16 fib1618: the volume McClellan's are now suggesting that we will challenge the fall highs in the not too distant future
2016-05-31 17:03:26 fib1618: volume is also leading breadth in this marketplace
2016-05-31 17:03:34 fib1618: and we know that's a bullish combination
2016-05-31 17:04:24 fib1618: moving to the OEX volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:04:40 fib1618: and we see on the 21 day close up chart that we moved to a lower low today by a couple of points today
2016-05-31 17:04:52 fib1618: this is not a positive thing near term
2016-05-31 17:05:07 fib1618: as it would suggest heavier selling in this basket of issues
2016-05-31 17:05:23 fib1618: but on the positive side
2016-05-31 17:05:37 fib1618: this same breakdown in pattern doesn't show up in either the SPX or Dow volume MCO's
2016-05-31 17:05:50 fib1618: so...could be end of month shenanigans
2016-05-31 17:06:14 fib1618: but one would think that this would had been executed last week
2016-05-31 17:06:35 fib1618: unless...you leave on Thursday and come back today to do a little housekeeping
2016-05-31 17:06:53 fib1618: we'll know more tomorrow
2016-05-31 17:07:19 fib1618: small point change in the MID volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:07:57 fib1618: and, so far, the MID volume MCSUM is continuing to work off the bottom it found at its zero line
2016-05-31 17:08:31 fib1618: wow...nice move today in the SML volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:08:46 fib1618: as it finally broke above its April highs today
2016-05-31 17:09:06 fib1618: and with it
2016-05-31 17:09:27 fib1618: the likelihood of a "fishhook" on the SML volume MCSUM has now reduced to almost nil
2016-05-31 17:10:04 fib1618: this is a bullish whisper that needs to be respected for what it may suggest
2016-05-31 17:10:24 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2016-05-31 17:10:50 fib1618: as it tries valiantly to hold on to the +50 level
2016-05-31 17:10:52 fib1618: so...
2016-05-31 17:11:13 fib1618: we have the secondary issues leading the markets higher
2016-05-31 17:11:37 fib1618: with some indices showing good volume leadership
2016-05-31 17:11:50 fib1618: and the general market, overall, at a compression point
2016-05-31 17:12:06 fib1618: given that all of the MCO's remain above their zero lines
2016-05-31 17:12:34 fib1618: the technical expectation of our small point changes tonight is for an upside resolution
2016-05-31 17:13:00 fib1618: and if this were to occur
2016-05-31 17:13:40 fib1618: how much strength is generated with this move will finally be able to give us a "timing" road map
2016-05-31 17:13:58 fib1618: so far...it would appear that we're very close now to a tradable bottom
2016-05-31 17:14:20 fib1618: one of which where prices will trend for a 4-6 week period
2016-05-31 17:14:40 fib1618: guess it could had started a couple of weeks ago
2016-05-31 17:14:54 fib1618: but not without the confirmation we've been looking for
2016-05-31 17:15:01 fib1618: we'll see
2016-05-31 17:15:05 fib1618: on to the OBV's
2016-05-31 17:15:35 fib1618: STVO's remain "overbought"
2016-05-31 17:15:45 fib1618: so if we're going to accelerate to the upside here
2016-05-31 17:15:56 fib1618: we should begin to see more corrections on the fly
2016-05-31 17:16:41 fib1618: CVI's have eased off from last week's climactic activity
2016-05-31 17:17:06 fib1618: VTO's continue to move north, but not with a lot of vigor which could indicate a developing trend in progress
2016-05-31 17:17:25 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.02
2016-05-31 17:17:35 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.03
2016-05-31 17:17:41 fib1618: so minimally "oversold"
2016-05-31 17:17:57 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2016-05-31 17:18:07 fib1618: Open 10 at .78
2016-05-31 17:18:10 fib1618: so we're "overbought" there
2016-05-31 17:18:39 fib1618: as is the NASDAQ 21 day SMA of the TRINQ
2016-05-31 17:18:55 fib1618: TM TRIN at .81
2016-05-31 17:19:05 fib1618: Open 10 at .84
2016-05-31 17:19:11 fib1618: so...
2016-05-31 17:19:29 fib1618: we're getting to be a bit on the frothy side both in the NASDAQ and the TM
2016-05-31 17:19:43 fib1618: but we haven't as yet seen this kind of participation in the NYSE
2016-05-31 17:20:03 fib1618: one thought is that if we begin the game of correcting on the fly
2016-05-31 17:20:16 fib1618: money would rotate out of the NASDAQ and into the NYSE
2016-05-31 17:20:30 fib1618: and this would provide the correction we're looking for
2016-05-31 17:20:48 fib1618: still...there's a heck of a lot of liquidity out there
2016-05-31 17:21:10 fib1618: and the "cream stocks" could just rise to the top without taking away from the curds and whey
2016-05-31 17:21:25 fib1618: let's check the BETS
2016-05-31 17:22:40 fib1618: +65
2016-05-31 17:22:41 fib1618: "buy"
2016-05-31 17:23:04 fib1618: if this continues to improve on Thursday
2016-05-31 17:23:39 fib1618: then there won't be much to stop us from following its lead
2016-05-31 17:23:48 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-31 17:24:12 thespookyone: what of gold here?
2016-05-31 17:24:32 fib1618: checking
2016-05-31 17:24:55 fib1618: hammer stick today
2016-05-31 17:25:24 fib1618: but silver is weak
2016-05-31 17:25:30 fib1618: so I would wait for follow through
2016-05-31 17:25:44 fib1618: but you have above average volume on the reversal bar today
2016-05-31 17:25:54 fib1618: and you know what the A/D lines look like
2016-05-31 17:26:56 fib1618: looks like we got a bottom as well in the bonds
2016-05-31 17:28:03 fib1618: and my guess, based on the A/D data, is that interest rates on the 10 year are about to break out its symmetrical triangle to the downside
2016-05-31 17:28:49 fib1618: all in all
2016-05-31 17:29:11 fib1618: it looks like the data this week is going to show that further easing would be warranted by the FED
2016-05-31 17:29:38 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-31 17:29:48 thespookyone: thx
2016-05-31 17:29:52 mojave: ha - from your lips to Yellen's ear
2016-05-31 17:30:09 fib1618: [smile]
2016-05-31 17:30:14 fib1618: she doesn't listen to me
2016-05-31 17:30:17 mojave: sorry that sounded gross
2016-05-31 17:30:22 mojave: tks!
2016-05-31 17:30:26 fib1618: heck...she doesn't even listen to the market!
2016-05-31 17:30:39 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-31 17:30:42 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-31 17:30:47 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-05-31 17:30:54 fib1618: and we'll see what's happening on Thursday
2016-05-31 17:30:55 fib1618: good night
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