All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,422
Reply with quote  #1 
For those who may have missed Friday's sharp price decline, I've decided to share Thursday's chat transcripts with the rest of the Technical Watch members and other visitors to the site. If you're continuing to find it challenging to trade in the current environment, don't you owe it to yourself to find out what you may be missing in your timing that will increase your likelihood of trading success? Subscription fees for the chats and the weekly breadth charts are quite nominal in relation to the wealth of information and value that you'll receive plus you have the ability to go month to month as you see fit. Follow the link to subscribe today - http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm


2012-05-31 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-05-31 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-05-31 16:00:30 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Pretty good. Hope you are doing well.
2012-05-31 16:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thank you sir!
2012-05-31 16:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions to comments before we get started??
2012-05-31 16:02:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: might need an "E" here, not sure
2012-05-31 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck if I know...this news pollution is getting a bit ridiculous
2012-05-31 16:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a nice 5 up from the bottom on the 5 minute today
2012-05-31 16:03:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure is
2012-05-31 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a consolidation...and then another 5 up
2012-05-31 16:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then collapse
2012-05-31 16:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely...finished an intraday correction
2012-05-31 16:03:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-05-31 16:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning hard down in the morning
2012-05-31 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in a perfect Elliott world, or course :)
2012-05-31 16:04:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: GLD looks especially vulnerable for a 3 down
2012-05-31 16:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals on the precious metals are at critical longer term support levels right now
2012-05-31 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we're seeing governments cashing out to finance their debt
2012-05-31 16:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who really knows
2012-05-31 16:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully we'll a better grasp on things by the end of the chat
2012-05-31 16:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's get going...let me get DP up
2012-05-31 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after seeing our snapback yesterday
2012-05-31 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even moving down and through the zero line
2012-05-31 16:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved slightly higher today
2012-05-31 16:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-05-31 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small point change here on this MCO
2012-05-31 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up of the NYA price chart
2012-05-31 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a typical bearish reversal pattern
2012-05-31 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: complete with an island bar left behind
2012-05-31 16:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we find ourselves at the lowest close since the 5/18 lows
2012-05-31 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pattern would suggest a continuation move to the downside near term
2012-05-31 16:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to at least provide a lower price low in the pattern
2012-05-31 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to our downside objectives here
2012-05-31 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to look for a move to the 7250 level
2012-05-31 16:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only 200 points away
2012-05-31 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO components continue to suggest a hostile market
2012-05-31 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM now challenging its recent lows
2012-05-31 16:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no follow through for the bulls
2012-05-31 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lower lows would then be our near term expectation
2012-05-31 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the NYSE composite breadth MCO
2012-05-31 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2012-05-31 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dramatic these days is in excess of 1%
2012-05-31 16:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but probably closer to 2% given the volatility from overseas
2012-05-31 16:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components here are back on a crossover sell signal
2012-05-31 16:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's small point change in the MCO is in attempt to hold the -500 level on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-05-31 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a very dangerous spot to be in with such an important piece of data coming out
2012-05-31 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have no texture in the MCO
2012-05-31 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of that
2012-05-31 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no short term support present of which we can work with
2012-05-31 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are
2012-05-31 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-05-31 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the process now of creating this first point of divergence
2012-05-31 16:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so based on that
2012-05-31 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from a possible continued snapback up to the zero line
2012-05-31 16:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall forecast remains for a downside resolution out of this current indecision pattern
2012-05-31 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which you can now see the upper and lower limits on the price chart
2012-05-31 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 7600/7400
2012-05-31 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-05-31 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lower lows now in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-05-31 16:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any large gap expansion to the downside near term would then provide our next expectation of the -1000 level on the this MCSUM
2012-05-31 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an important day or two coming up
2012-05-31 16:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-05-31 16:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have something to shoot for here...the small hesitation point seen last week...as a possible support target
2012-05-31 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things unwind sentiment wise as we approach this same level
2012-05-31 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2012-05-31 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ data isn't giving any indication of a tradable low as yet
2012-05-31 16:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so anyone who may have moved long over the last week on this idea should have firm stops in place
2012-05-31 16:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or look for a more friendly entry point to move long
2012-05-31 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: market here is very heavy
2012-05-31 16:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can get a sense of how heavy it is by looking at the NDX data
2012-05-31 16:20:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: as reflected by the last 15 minutes of trading...
2012-05-31 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where not only did the NDX breadth MCO move below the its hesitation point today
2012-05-31 16:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this pushed the NDX breadth MCSUM to new lows in the process
2012-05-31 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that too Lew
2012-05-31 16:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern had a another "too far, too fast" cadence to it
2012-05-31 16:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much emotion
2012-05-31 16:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost desperate
2012-05-31 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when buyers stepped aside
2012-05-31 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as quickly we collapsed again
2012-05-31 16:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a real bullish feel to the pattern at all
2012-05-31 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth was fine
2012-05-31 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it was up against resistance at lunch time
2012-05-31 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then after lunch another spurt took place
2012-05-31 16:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know the reason why really
2012-05-31 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm sure it was something to do with some jawboning overseas
2012-05-31 16:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look folks
2012-05-31 16:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's be real here
2012-05-31 16:23:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: meeting between head of Euro and Spain guy tonite-rumor was they'd talk bailout-truth later was they wouldn't LOL
2012-05-31 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: US notes wouldn't be making lows beyond 1.7% if there wasn't some sort of a fear factor here
2012-05-31 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter
2012-05-31 16:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all too late for Europe
2012-05-31 16:24:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that was the second spurt
2012-05-31 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the longer they delay the inevitable...the worse it will get
2012-05-31 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets just want clarity here
2012-05-31 16:25:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: experiment failing...:)
2012-05-31 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all they're getting is politics
2012-05-31 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hyperbole
2012-05-31 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rhetoric
2012-05-31 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: propaganda
2012-05-31 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever you wish to label it
2012-05-31 16:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one wants to be the fall guy here
2012-05-31 16:26:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seems like the currency traders aren't biting, LOL
2012-05-31 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...in spite of the recent reflex rally in equities
2012-05-31 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the US dollar still rallied
2012-05-31 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it was OK for that to happen
2012-05-31 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I keep thinking of dominoes
2012-05-31 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we're waiting for is a flick of a finger to set it off
2012-05-31 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look
2012-05-31 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these countries have been bankrupt in the past
2012-05-31 16:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Spain at least twice
2012-05-31 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all survived
2012-05-31 16:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: true...it's different this time...we're all joined at the hip
2012-05-31 16:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but great market bottoms have been known to develop with this same kind of fear factor
2012-05-31 16:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for us
2012-05-31 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as technicians
2012-05-31 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we want to see is positive, constructive texture
2012-05-31 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when that happens
2012-05-31 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll rally
2012-05-31 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from what price level?
2012-05-31 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's always the open question
2012-05-31 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-05-31 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing as yet is indicating anything other than a near term bottom as soon as tomorrow
2012-05-31 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talking internally here
2012-05-31 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2012-05-31 16:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals will bottom first
2012-05-31 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will still need to use up any momentum of the move created by money flow before they will bottom
2012-05-31 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an internal low tomorrow...
2012-05-31 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices may not bottom for another couple of weeks
2012-05-31 16:30:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: on a bigger scale, the drop of the bond market today WITH the market probably signals a bottom approaches, imho
2012-05-31 16:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how the tlt did today
2012-05-31 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy
2012-05-31 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sure looked like a 5th wave blow off, doesn't it?
2012-05-31 16:31:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: YES
2012-05-31 16:31:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: V top possible
2012-05-31 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: textbook
2012-05-31 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2012-05-31 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had a mid range close today
2012-05-31 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so either the bond bulls are going to give it one more shot to move above today's highs
2012-05-31 16:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they fail
2012-05-31 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see a breakaway gap to the downside come Monday
2012-05-31 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much looks like a commodity now
2012-05-31 16:33:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: kind of fits in with our overall plan, I think
2012-05-31 16:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the pattern from March
2012-05-31 16:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a 5th wave blow off of wave 3
2012-05-31 16:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could
2012-05-31 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but much of this is running for safety until clarity is known
2012-05-31 16:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always remember
2012-05-31 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that history has shown that money will always run for the perceived safety of the most stable government it can find during times of ambiguity
2012-05-31 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the US is that country
2012-05-31 16:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-05-31 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yield on the 10 year moved down to 1.533% today
2012-05-31 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who would had thought something like this would ever be seen in our lifetimes?
2012-05-31 16:35:42 [Message] tracca -> Chat: which chart in StockCharts shows the yield?
2012-05-31 16:35:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet, I just like the timing of the bond topping a 3 before the market bottoms one
2012-05-31 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $tnx
2012-05-31 16:35:59 [Message] tracca -> Chat: tnks
2012-05-31 16:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting to note on the TNX chart
2012-05-31 16:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the ADX is indicating that we're only in the MIDDLE of the downtrend here
2012-05-31 16:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "how low can it go?"
2012-05-31 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2012-05-31 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would be looking around at real estate right about now
2012-05-31 16:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with money so cheap
2012-05-31 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market weak
2012-05-31 16:37:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my daughter is looking this week, short sales
2012-05-31 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 10 years from now could tell a whole different story
2012-05-31 16:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2012-05-31 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short sells are a pain
2012-05-31 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the lenders would rather sit on the property than to let it go
2012-05-31 16:38:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure are...but the price, wow
2012-05-31 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would suggest she be open to everything
2012-05-31 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-05-31 16:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you quickest escrows and best negotiations will be with those who need to get out for one reason or the other
2012-05-31 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't want to let the house go to the bank
2012-05-31 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would rather sell it at a small loss...or profit
2012-05-31 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some may want to move out of state because of the problems
2012-05-31 16:40:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, and saves their credit
2012-05-31 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for some the house may be too big...smaller family
2012-05-31 16:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you never know
2012-05-31 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2012-05-31 16:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short sales are good if you know the lenders
2012-05-31 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these days
2012-05-31 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one office is on the east coast
2012-05-31 16:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other on the west coast
2012-05-31 16:41:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: which is now priced into EVERYTHING, insurance included
2012-05-31 16:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they never talk to each other
2012-05-31 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup
2012-05-31 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-05-31 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is cheap
2012-05-31 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30 year are at 3 3/4% right now
2012-05-31 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to beat...and you can always prepay
2012-05-31 16:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck
2012-05-31 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 15 year is around 3.00% or cheaper
2012-05-31 16:42:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, she got pre approved at 3.65 no points-but has an 850 beacon
2012-05-31 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would have to look
2012-05-31 16:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go for it
2012-05-31 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a buyers market
2012-05-31 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buy two... :)
2012-05-31 16:42:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm helping her look, bummer LOL
2012-05-31 16:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: investment property is a great deal right now
2012-05-31 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can get double the rent
2012-05-31 16:43:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: truly is
2012-05-31 16:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of what you have to pay each month
2012-05-31 16:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: income stream is important as you get older
2012-05-31 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-05-31 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough of this
2012-05-31 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forward
2012-05-31 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX
2012-05-31 16:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after meeting our expectation of snapping back to the SPX breadth MCO zero line yesterday
2012-05-31 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw a bit more weakness today
2012-05-31 16:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we didn't get was a bounce off this same zero line
2012-05-31 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing about TA
2012-05-31 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when something expected doesn't happen
2012-05-31 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can tell you more than if it did
2012-05-31 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2012-05-31 16:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not being able to get a simple technical bounce where we usually see one
2012-05-31 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggests that the market is weaker than what many believe it to be
2012-05-31 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless we get a rally attempt on Friday
2012-05-31 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at a rather nasty sell off because of this "failure to perform"
2012-05-31 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also
2012-05-31 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the SPX breadth MCSUM is finding resistance at its -750 level
2012-05-31 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any breakdown below last weeks lows is going to provide our next target of -1000 to look forward to
2012-05-31 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to a crossover sale as well on the SPX MCO components
2012-05-31 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls now
2012-05-31 16:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need a rip roaring rally here to break the back of this sagging personality
2012-05-31 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also looks like a classic "fishhook" now on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2012-05-31 16:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the bulls tried to change the direction of money flow
2012-05-31 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but failed to get any takers to keep the ball rolling
2012-05-31 16:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was our fear on Tuesday
2012-05-31 16:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we looked to be exhausted
2012-05-31 16:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and follow through was needed to keep things from moving back to the path of least resistance
2012-05-31 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX breadth MCO as well
2012-05-31 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't look good here folks
2012-05-31 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we're going to make one more lower low here on the MCSUM
2012-05-31 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's fine
2012-05-31 16:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problems
2012-05-31 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we then want to look for on any further weakness
2012-05-31 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we want to see bearish sentiment start to spike
2012-05-31 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at the VIX...one moment
2012-05-31 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: perfect
2012-05-31 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the VIX and the price pattern itself are a mirror image here
2012-05-31 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both are consolidating
2012-05-31 16:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both structures suggest trending moves in progress
2012-05-31 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you apply a simple 20, 50 and 200 day EMA to both the SPX and the VIX
2012-05-31 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see the support structures in place that produce trending structure
2012-05-31 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-05-31 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have index puts right now
2012-05-31 16:53:42 [Message] tracca -> Chat: VIX down 0.33% but VXX up 1.31%.
2012-05-31 16:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although they may have been expensive
2012-05-31 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the implied volatility factor is going to go sky high on any sell off from here
2012-05-31 16:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the pattern Tracca
2012-05-31 16:54:25 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2012-05-31 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we're dealing with supply and DEMAND
2012-05-31 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the demand
2012-05-31 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the mark up
2012-05-31 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time doesn't matter as much as demand
2012-05-31 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when we get sell offs
2012-05-31 16:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the emotion of "panic" allows traders to pay more than what they would be accustomed to pay normally
2012-05-31 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "at any price"
2012-05-31 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so pick you poison here
2012-05-31 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it be another European slip?
2012-05-31 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will it be US job growth
2012-05-31 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or both?
2012-05-31 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what could cause the greatest amount of panic?
2012-05-31 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greatest amount of fear of what you can't control?
2012-05-31 16:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer, of course, is...
2012-05-31 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter
2012-05-31 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know is that the patterns are suggesting continuation
2012-05-31 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whys and wherefores will come with time
2012-05-31 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this instance
2012-05-31 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the short term and intermediate term trend of money flow as measured by the MCO an MCSUM
2012-05-31 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that unless something happens to turn things around here
2012-05-31 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is going to take the path of LEAST resistance
2012-05-31 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-05-31 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have so much work here
2012-05-31 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that until the greater majority of this same path subsides
2012-05-31 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will not be able to create an opposite effect
2012-05-31 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what's needed for the "cruise ship" to turn around and head in the other direction
2012-05-31 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it needs both energy and the ability to steer the course in this same direction
2012-05-31 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to do when the surf is moving against you as it is right now
2012-05-31 17:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...the larger tide
2012-05-31 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO is attempting to find support at its hesitation point from last week
2012-05-31 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a good example of what we want to see occur for our divergent low to happen
2012-05-31 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2012-05-31 17:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM continues to make lower lows
2012-05-31 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to make this really simple here
2012-05-31 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way that prices are going to any kind of chance of moving above last Tuesday's highs
2012-05-31 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the various MCO's will need to take out their corresponding spikes we saw on Tuesday
2012-05-31 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that can't be done
2012-05-31 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will move in the direction of where there is less friction to go against
2012-05-31 17:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since breadth leads the direction of price
2012-05-31 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation remains for lower price lows...
2012-05-31 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the apex lows of last December still the likely target for many of the indices we cover
2012-05-31 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change with the MID breadth MCO
2012-05-31 17:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we are treading right at the zero line here
2012-05-31 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: problem though
2012-05-31 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were at the zero line yesterday as well
2012-05-31 17:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no bounce today
2012-05-31 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no bounce suggests that there are no buyers
2012-05-31 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there's no buyers when both sides are pretty much evened up on a short term trending basis
2012-05-31 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger intermediate term control of money flow is the likely recipient of what we should expect from this lack of strength
2012-05-31 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here too
2012-05-31 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're again finding resistance at the -750 level
2012-05-31 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if anything
2012-05-31 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is pretty much in sync here
2012-05-31 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just has some unresolved issues to deal with
2012-05-31 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technical breakdown yesterday below the SML breadth MCO zero line
2012-05-31 17:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today we got our obligatory attempt to snapback to this same line of neutrality
2012-05-31 17:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again
2012-05-31 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM is also having a hard go negotiating above the -750 level
2012-05-31 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is important information to know
2012-05-31 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the 750 level is already highly "oversold"
2012-05-31 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that the majority of heavy selling would be behind us
2012-05-31 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what this tells us is
2012-05-31 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be
2012-05-31 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's nothing to counter this same imbalance between the bulls and the bears
2012-05-31 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or an attempt to revert back to the mean
2012-05-31 17:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is a big problem at least for the next day or so
2012-05-31 17:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a flush here would be ideal
2012-05-31 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get everyone really beared up
2012-05-31 17:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get those who are unwilling to sell to commit
2012-05-31 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with no one else to sell
2012-05-31 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers can step in and start to bid prices higher
2012-05-31 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the Total Market breadth MCO
2012-05-31 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should also be pointed out
2012-05-31 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even with last summers complex bullish support pattern in many of the MCSUM's
2012-05-31 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not getting the kind of buying support that would suggest a marketplace in which the majority believe it to be fairly valued
2012-05-31 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no takers at all at this stage
2012-05-31 17:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of that
2012-05-31 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will naturally move lower until it does find those who do believe that prices are at least fairly priced in their markup
2012-05-31 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooo....
2012-05-31 17:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our zero line snapback on Wednesday
2012-05-31 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was weaker than expected
2012-05-31 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we attempted to rally again intraday today again to provide neutrality
2012-05-31 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and found ourselves having the wind taken out of the sails of the bulls once all was said and done at the close
2012-05-31 17:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a lot of tension on the tape as reflected by the many small point changes on the MCO's this evening
2012-05-31 17:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with some very important data coming out tomorrow
2012-05-31 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the roller coaster ride we're getting across the pond
2012-05-31 17:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overwhelming evidence suggests that at least one more hard sell off will be needed to finally provide an intermediate term bottom in the direction of money flow
2012-05-31 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the sectors
2012-05-31 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what looked promising earlier in the week
2012-05-31 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now looks iffy with the XLY breadth data with a zero line snapback on the MCO
2012-05-31 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLY breadth MCSUM seems to be running out of steam as it approaches the -250 level on a snapback
2012-05-31 17:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving us with another classic looking fishhook on the MCSUM
2012-05-31 17:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also
2012-05-31 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the last time we reviewed the sectors a week ago Tuesday
2012-05-31 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the forecast for a snapback to the 44 level was complete on Tuesday of this week
2012-05-31 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're pretty much indecisive
2012-05-31 17:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the rest of the market
2012-05-31 17:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to break above Tuesday's highs now
2012-05-31 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO will need to also take out these same highs as well
2012-05-31 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the way the broader market has so far reacted on its snapback to or towards the MCO zero lines
2012-05-31 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could assume that it's going to take quite a bit of positive reinforcement here to see these MCO highs taken out near term
2012-05-31 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP data is giving a classic "get out of this right now or your head is going to be handed to you" look
2012-05-31 17:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLP breadth MCSUM finding zero line support
2012-05-31 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with no follow through off the zero line
2012-05-31 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the amount of time in which this MCSUM has remained above its zero line
2012-05-31 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pretty good bet here that we're going to be below both the MCO and MCSUM zero lines for a lengthy amount of time
2012-05-31 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first support here on any break of the trading range is the 33 level
2012-05-31 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: below that...it's point for point
2012-05-31 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 32, 31, 30 etc
2012-05-31 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if long here
2012-05-31 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a simple stop just below the 5/18 lows will have you out
2012-05-31 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE
2012-05-31 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we know why the price pattern failed to move to above the 77 1/2 level earlier this year when it broke to the upside out of its right angle triangle
2012-05-31 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't we?
2012-05-31 17:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we never look for the fundamental reason why money is moving one way or the other
2012-05-31 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just listen and move with it
2012-05-31 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reasons will be known later on
2012-05-31 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WTIC closed at $86.55 today
2012-05-31 17:30:04 [Message] tracca -> Chat: can you elaborate on XLE, please?
2012-05-31 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's down from $107 in less than a month
2012-05-31 17:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what respect?
2012-05-31 17:30:40 [Message] tracca -> Chat: what's obvious for you is not yet for me in regards to 77 1/2
2012-05-31 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that breadth, money, needs to lead the direction of price
2012-05-31 17:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we're dealing with a sector
2012-05-31 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money in equities is usually going to lead the direction of the underlying commodity or service in which these same issues are basing their return on future capital
2012-05-31 17:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2012-05-31 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price of crude oil
2012-05-31 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-05-31 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: In January
2012-05-31 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had an upside breakout in the XLE
2012-05-31 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which measured to around...what was it?...80?
2012-05-31 17:32:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-05-31 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we got was 75 before the XLE breadth MCSUM topped out
2012-05-31 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2012-05-31 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price of crude saw its highest levels at that time
2012-05-31 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money continued to move out of this sector
2012-05-31 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the great majority was betting on higher and higher prices
2012-05-31 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember?
2012-05-31 17:33:56 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2012-05-31 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk of $150 and $200 oil was being tossed around
2012-05-31 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but meanwhile
2012-05-31 17:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money was leaving this sector
2012-05-31 17:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so that the upside price targets were cancelled in mid March
2012-05-31 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the breakaway gap to the downside
2012-05-31 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here is a great example of why we listen to what money is doing
2012-05-31 17:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the actual flow of capital is the ultimate sentiment indicator
2012-05-31 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we leave such visions of grandeur to others who don't pay attention to this same dynamic
2012-05-31 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-05-31 17:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we are
2012-05-31 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 20% in the price of oil
2012-05-31 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still
2012-05-31 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is moving out of this sector
2012-05-31 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is quite a trick since
2012-05-31 17:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our being highly "oversold" here
2012-05-31 17:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only are the longs out
2012-05-31 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the shorts are piling on
2012-05-31 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of pressure then is going to take a long while before prices will be stable enough to where there would be enough buyers to change the direction of price itself
2012-05-31 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both here in the XLE
2012-05-31 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price of energy as well
2012-05-31 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in this case
2012-05-31 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some of this may be a reflection of recession in Europe
2012-05-31 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or globally
2012-05-31 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but much of this was a war premium that was being bantered about earlier this year as well
2012-05-31 17:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where will it stop?
2012-05-31 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't really know for sure
2012-05-31 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what we do know is...
2012-05-31 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pressure remains for lower prices
2012-05-31 17:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the last time we talked about this specific sector
2012-05-31 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do believe a new downside target of last years lows was given...
2012-05-31 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the MCSUM continues to make lower lows
2012-05-31 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have a flag
2012-05-31 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we don't have a flag
2012-05-31 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing to look for as far as momentum divergence
2012-05-31 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got to have a stopping point before you can look for a momentum low
2012-05-31 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the 58 level looks doable
2012-05-31 17:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also
2012-05-31 17:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that today we moved below the price lows of last November intraday
2012-05-31 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like clock work
2012-05-31 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were buyers to see if there is any larger support as there were last time or not
2012-05-31 17:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we might see some follow through on that tomorrow
2012-05-31 17:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's going to take more than just a snapback to the MCO zero line now to show a shift in direction
2012-05-31 17:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to take out the recent highs to do that
2012-05-31 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what are the odds of that happening with the broader market looking as weak as it is right now?
2012-05-31 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: best...?
2012-05-31 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 50/50
2012-05-31 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the trend is down until proven otherwise
2012-05-31 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and equities will generally bottom out first before the price of crude will
2012-05-31 17:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least that's the theory :)
2012-05-31 17:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2012-05-31 17:44:40 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes, thank you
2012-05-31 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pleasure
2012-05-31 17:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...moving to the XLF
2012-05-31 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're seeing better buying support
2012-05-31 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the snapback to the zero line on the XLF breadth MCO
2012-05-31 17:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we actually bounced higher off this line today
2012-05-31 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2012-05-31 17:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain corrective
2012-05-31 17:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the XLF breadth MCSUM
2012-05-31 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have is a small curl to the pattern
2012-05-31 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to claim a bottom
2012-05-31 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we 'll need to see this MCO move to higher highs
2012-05-31 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it?
2012-05-31 17:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't look too good here
2012-05-31 17:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we haven't really broken down yet either
2012-05-31 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's always hope :)
2012-05-31 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you just take a cursory look at the XLV breadth MCSUM
2012-05-31 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how the pattern looks to be sagging here to the downside
2012-05-31 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it moved to lower lows today
2012-05-31 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting close now to an opinion on Obama Care
2012-05-31 17:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's interesting to see that money continues to think there might be a positive outcome here
2012-05-31 17:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (for what its worth...traders can be wrong too)
2012-05-31 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2012-05-31 17:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small point change on the XLI breadth MCO
2012-05-31 17:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of strength here, is there?
2012-05-31 17:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we have a new flag to deal with
2012-05-31 17:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't take much here for the market to "give up"
2012-05-31 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows on Tracca's proxy...the XLB breadth MCSUM
2012-05-31 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing suggesting a near term low
2012-05-31 17:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note how the XLB breadth MCO wasn't able to find downside pattern support today
2012-05-31 17:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2012-05-31 17:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2012-05-31 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the deeper we go in the MCSUM's
2012-05-31 17:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better and stronger the eventual price low
2012-05-31 17:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just we have to get there first
2012-05-31 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that presents a near term problem
2012-05-31 17:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how low is low?
2012-05-31 17:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where is the point where price providing "value"?
2012-05-31 17:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCSUM is also showing a lot of heaviness here
2012-05-31 17:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note that the 10% component is close being technically over extended here
2012-05-31 17:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLK breadth MCO still above pattern support
2012-05-31 17:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be near a bottom there
2012-05-31 17:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU data is showing the strongest support for prices
2012-05-31 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have nice texture to the XLU breadth MCO
2012-05-31 17:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding zero line support
2012-05-31 17:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then bounced higher today
2012-05-31 17:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow through here would provide enough energy for prices to break to higher highs
2012-05-31 17:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only caveat there lies with the XLU breadth MCSUM which continues to support a rather choppy rising structure
2012-05-31 17:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing a lot of nervousness
2012-05-31 17:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo....
2012-05-31 17:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is pretty well washed out here
2012-05-31 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there doesn't seem to be a lot of buying interest either
2012-05-31 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this, we can assume, is because of what's happening in Europe
2012-05-31 17:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the last week or so have provided some choppy indecision to many of the price patterns we follow
2012-05-31 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at some of the breadth MCSUM's
2012-05-31 17:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it appears that this indecision is likely to find itself moving again to the downside
2012-05-31 17:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the expectation of a near term low in the internals could occur as soon as Friday
2012-05-31 17:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my sense here is
2012-05-31 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this weekend is going to be filled with a lot of drama
2012-05-31 17:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whatever happens tomorrow
2012-05-31 17:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: may carry over into Monday
2012-05-31 17:59:08 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: fyi, full moon on Monday
2012-05-31 17:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great...
2012-05-31 17:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-05-31 17:59:32 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: maybe helps the blueprint out a bit  :)
2012-05-31 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is some lunacy thrown into the mix!
2012-05-31 17:59:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-05-31 17:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the blueprint remains valid for now
2012-05-31 18:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll need to see the bulls circle the wagons here soon or we may have another "Custard" moment
2012-05-31 18:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are on the south side of neutral after calling Tuesday's top
2012-05-31 18:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "overbought"
2012-05-31 18:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are being pulled up by their proverbial boot straps with little to show for it
2012-05-31 18:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.17
2012-05-31 18:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.10
2012-05-31 18:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback complete there to the "oversold" line
2012-05-31 18:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2012-05-31 18:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another sell off
2012-05-31 18:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should provide bullish divergence for a low to be set
2012-05-31 18:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many sellers here
2012-05-31 18:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could you imagine if there wasn't any liquidity here?
2012-05-31 18:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-05-31 18:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN At 1.37
2012-05-31 18:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.07
2012-05-31 18:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-05-31 18:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.29
2012-05-31 18:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12
2012-05-31 18:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-05-31 18:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears remain in control
2012-05-31 18:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the bulls attempt to stem the tide by throwing money at the market
2012-05-31 18:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until they get a collective group behind them
2012-05-31 18:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is like spitting into the wind
2012-05-31 18:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow will be interesting
2012-05-31 18:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do rally
2012-05-31 18:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the focus remains first with volume plurality
2012-05-31 18:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and seeing how things look AFTER lunch
2012-05-31 18:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at the very least
2012-05-31 18:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after Europe closes
2012-05-31 18:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we sell off from the get go
2012-05-31 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it as a hit and run affair
2012-05-31 18:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bank and take the rest of the weekend off
2012-05-31 18:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if we do close near the lows
2012-05-31 18:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation would be for a bounce on Monday
2012-05-31 18:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: may not be at the open
2012-05-31 18:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but sometime during the day another attempt will be made to stabilize things
2012-05-31 18:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if our downside price targets are met
2012-05-31 18:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even more so
2012-05-31 18:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-05-31 18:07:32 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Fib, I just sent you an email.  Thank you for your great teaching.
2012-05-31 18:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got it...not a problem
2012-05-31 18:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here to trading is looking for what is reasonable and doable
2012-05-31 18:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually is fully opposite of what everyone else is doing or saying
2012-05-31 18:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else?
2012-05-31 18:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ooooo
2012-05-31 18:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: futures are down hard going into the jobs data?
2012-05-31 18:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not consistent
2012-05-31 18:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess the meeting didn't go so well? ;)
2012-05-31 18:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-05-31 18:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-05-31 18:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-05-31 18:10:38 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks Dave
2012-05-31 18:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what we have to work with on Tuesday
2012-05-31 18:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch