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Posts: 4,726
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-05-03 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-05-03 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-05-03 16:00:19 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: fine
2011-05-03 16:00:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thanks. And you?
2011-05-03 16:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good
2011-05-03 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice to be back down to a more intimate size
2011-05-03 16:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2011-05-03 16:01:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I wonder if you might help me with XLE later, please.
2011-05-03 16:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure nuff
2011-05-03 16:02:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 16:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll cover the sectors today
2011-05-03 16:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth...volume...or both?
2011-05-03 16:02:35 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I'd like to go over the small caps, please
2011-05-03 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good...part and parcel of the chat...and welcome Steve...enjoy your stay!
2011-05-03 16:03:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: count-kinda
2011-05-03 16:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott...
2011-05-03 16:03:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-05-03 16:03:46 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I will. Thanks
2011-05-03 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-05-03 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just so you know Steve
2011-05-03 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't prep in any way before the chat
2011-05-03 16:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything is a surprise to me
2011-05-03 16:04:32 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol - 10.4.
2011-05-03 16:04:38 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I studied, teach...
2011-05-03 16:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I find it important because you don't have any preconceived notions of what the market is doing
2011-05-03 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it gives a fresh take
2011-05-03 16:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that...
2011-05-03 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we start here -
2011-05-03 16:05:33 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Understand. I can appreciate that; you're probably not invested in the positions I am, and you're much more used to doing this
2011-05-03 16:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "advantage" is that I've been doing this so long, and with a number 2 pencil and graph paper, that things just jump out at me
2011-05-03 16:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to most things technical is your level of "intimacy" with the market
2011-05-03 16:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what she "whispers in your ear" so to speak
2011-05-03 16:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so having a source like DP allows me to interpret and not work at it
2011-05-03 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-05-03 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-05-03 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we go
2011-05-03 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to just below the +50 level last week
2011-05-03 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now given us our obligatory snapback to the zero line
2011-05-03 16:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being at the zero line says that we have a equal amount of buyers and sellers on a short term basis
2011-05-03 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that one side is about to take control of the action within this time frame
2011-05-03 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bringing our line of vision to the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that this snapback is part of the natural resistance of the +500 level on the chart
2011-05-03 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +500 level is the demarcation point of not only the market being "overbought" on an intermediate term basis
2011-05-03 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we are able to move above this specific line
2011-05-03 16:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we will be able to achieve enough thrust to provide escape velocity
2011-05-03 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not too surprising that we see a pause in the flow of money so that we can look around (if you will) and see if we have agreement among traders
2011-05-03 16:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE MCO components at the bottom of the chart
2011-05-03 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that with the MCO slightly below its zero line
2011-05-03 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components remain above theirs
2011-05-03 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would instruct us that we are again in a correctional mode
2011-05-03 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even more importantly
2011-05-03 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the MCO is at around the zero line
2011-05-03 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components will have a tendency help generate the technical bounce off this same zero line
2011-05-03 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a better bounce higher tomorrow internally
2011-05-03 16:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price pattern bar
2011-05-03 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had a mid range close
2011-05-03 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a rally attempt is suggested there as well
2011-05-03 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the ratio adjusted NYSE breadth MCO (2 clicks Steve)
2011-05-03 16:14:21 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: gracias
2011-05-03 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to snapback towards the zero line but remain above it
2011-05-03 16:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that the interest rate sensitive issues that make up the NYSE exchange continue to hold up the rest of the market
2011-05-03 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would short term bullish behavior
2011-05-03 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that unlike the common only components
2011-05-03 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite components remain in a bullish crossover configuration with the 10% above the 5% component
2011-05-03 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so overall, the bulls continue to control the action for the time being
2011-05-03 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that a bounce higher would be indicated as soon as tomorrow
2011-05-03 16:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today
2011-05-03 16:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the components are also below their zero line suggesting a short term sell signal
2011-05-03 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we remain within range of its zero line
2011-05-03 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bulls needing some conviction here or a failure might be the result given that we weren't able to take out the previous highs during this recent run up
2011-05-03 16:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ composite index
2011-05-03 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that not only did we have a mid range close
2011-05-03 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have also satisfied a simple snapback to the breakout of the price pattern itself
2011-05-03 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tomorrow becomes a somewhat important day for the bulls
2011-05-03 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for they don't want to allow too much more sag here or the pattern could be in jeopardy of a rally failure
2011-05-03 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Elliott wise could be the B wave of an irregular flat
2011-05-03 16:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty easily seen on the daily bar chart
2011-05-03 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 3 waves down...3 waves up
2011-05-03 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then C would be 5 down
2011-05-03 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: helping the NASDAQ composite, the NDX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2011-05-03 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components still on a buy signal
2011-05-03 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the two charts
2011-05-03 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still the NDX that is doing the work here on a near term basis
2011-05-03 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market (in general) is going to move significantly higher as we have been thinking it would for the last week or so
2011-05-03 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that we get a more broadly based rally out of the NASDAQ composite of stocks
2011-05-03 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this, the upside will be fairly limited to maybe only a challenge of the summer of 2007 highs on many of the NYSE related indices
2011-05-03 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes
2011-05-03 16:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX, though, remains bullish at this time
2011-05-03 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved lower today
2011-05-03 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we note that its current MCO levels suggest good underlying strength with the index itself
2011-05-03 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that this pull back in the MCO is taking place as we approach our next 250 multiple on the MCSUM - the +750 level
2011-05-03 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we do find resistance here
2011-05-03 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM curls lower
2011-05-03 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still should expect higher price highs in the SPX before we have to worry about a change in trend
2011-05-03 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX MCO components are suggesting a technical bounce as soon as tomorrow as well because of their close approximation to each other
2011-05-03 16:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had mid range close here as well
2011-05-03 16:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback to the February highs is now complete
2011-05-03 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the OEX price pattern as far as completing a simple snapback
2011-05-03 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we look at the OEX breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that selling here has been more reserved
2011-05-03 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the cream stocks (those that rise to the top) seem to be attracting money at this time
2011-05-03 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those of the top 100 from both exchanges
2011-05-03 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually this will occur as money moves out of defensive sectors (staples, health care, and utilities) before this same money is finally exposed to the broader market
2011-05-03 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could mean that we may be only days away from an upside acceleration here
2011-05-03 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how far we go will depend on how broad based any rally from here will show
2011-05-03 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-05-03 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much money is able to find its way in the secondary markets
2011-05-03 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the SML will give us a tip off to that
2011-05-03 16:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can plainly see how this idea is applied to the Dow 30 stocks
2011-05-03 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small point change in the Dow breadth MCO while it remains firmly "overbought"
2011-05-03 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these high levels are now really showing intermediate strength with the Dow breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it easily moved through the +1000 level today
2011-05-03 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next stop now is the +1250 level
2011-05-03 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we've seen its been turned away twice now in the last 52 weeks
2011-05-03 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of strength then suggests that we are nowhere near a tradable top in the Dow
2011-05-03 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we're able to break above the +1250 level
2011-05-03 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will clear the way for a challenge of the all time highs above the 14,000 level
2011-05-03 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO has fully snapback to its zero line
2011-05-03 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side is about to now take control of the action
2011-05-03 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this snapback to zero is taking place as the MID breadth MCSUM is approaching the +750 level
2011-05-03 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too...even if we turn lower from here on the MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should still expect to see higher price highs in the MID index before we any chance of a change in the direction of the current trend
2011-05-03 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID price pattern itself
2011-05-03 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see our old bullish constructive foundation of "stair stepping" higher
2011-05-03 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move up...pause...move up...pause
2011-05-03 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very healthy rising structure
2011-05-03 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although being that we're in the 3rd year of the run
2011-05-03 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that we are closer to the end than that of the beginning
2011-05-03 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern of the SML echos that of the MID
2011-05-03 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCO continues to show more decay than that of the mid caps
2011-05-03 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our near term expectation with any bounce is for the SML breadth MCO to snapback up to its zero line
2011-05-03 16:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be what it does after that
2011-05-03 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will give us our blueprint for the rest of May as far as what we should expect
2011-05-03 16:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that the 10 and 5 percent components remain above their zero line
2011-05-03 16:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too we can say that we're only correcting here
2011-05-03 16:39:18 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I know that we haven't been discussing the volume McO's yet this evening. Will that be later, or can we discuss the SML volume here?
2011-05-03 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no sign of an actual top
2011-05-03 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll hit the volume area later on
2011-05-03 16:39:40 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: 10.4
2011-05-03 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally we note that this turn below the zero line on the MCO coincides with the SML breadth MCSUM finding "overbought" resistance at the +500 level
2011-05-03 16:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the fact that we already weren't able to move above this same level back in early April
2011-05-03 16:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is our cue that we are, indeed, getting closer and closer to some sort of termination in the uptrend
2011-05-03 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the caution here that needs to be stressed, however, is that this can take several more months before we actually see this same termination
2011-05-03 16:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it a shot off the bow for now just to keep us on our toes
2011-05-03 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not to get to excited about further prospects going forward
2011-05-03 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Elliotticians who are looking a center point of 3 here of Primary degree
2011-05-03 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this index will need to really perform with the rest of the market to make it a confirmed move
2011-05-03 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we need to patient and not jump the gun
2011-05-03 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the TM breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a bounce higher tomorrow
2011-05-03 16:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how the SML and the NASDAQ composite are putting a drag on the rest of the market
2011-05-03 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the TM breadth MCSUM is finding hard just to get to the +500 level
2011-05-03 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-05-03 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control of the short term trend
2011-05-03 16:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they will need to get more participation here in the next two trading days otherwise we're likely to move sideways for a week or so
2011-05-03 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, will bring out the bears claiming top
2011-05-03 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we know otherwise
2011-05-03 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sector charts
2011-05-03 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO has also snapback to zero
2011-05-03 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with all of these zero line tests here
2011-05-03 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the same as saying that the market is undecided on what to do next
2011-05-03 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intermediate term says we that the odds suggest a move by the bulls initially
2011-05-03 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will still be important for see support come in for this same move
2011-05-03 16:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like going to the Frankenstein castle as a mob
2011-05-03 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you hope that when you turn around you'll have backers behind you
2011-05-03 16:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the mob thins out
2011-05-03 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you won't be able to do much damage but throw your pitchforks in the air and yell a lot
2011-05-03 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLP breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:49:17 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol - that makes me think of "fuzzy bottoms" on candles..
2011-05-03 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see where money has been going now for the last several weeks
2011-05-03 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-05-03 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 3 year chart for a moment -
2011-05-03 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we are now within spitting distance of making new highs for this current bull trend here on the XLP breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is able to be done
2011-05-03 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this basket of stocks really has nothing keeping it from moving to higher and higher levels
2011-05-03 16:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how the angle of ascent continues to increase of late
2011-05-03 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is a very hot sector and should be looked at with a keen eye
2011-05-03 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the XLE
2011-05-03 16:51:53 [Message] gman -> Chat: Dave, I just got home from work. Which sector are you referring to?
2011-05-03 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hi john
2011-05-03 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP...consumer staples -
2011-05-03 16:52:43 [Message] gman -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 16:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the defensive areas are screaming buy right now as we will see
2011-05-03 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Lew...what was your question on the XLE?
2011-05-03 16:53:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just wondering pattern wise-flat, irregular flat, or 1 of wave in doing a 2 now-your opinion?
2011-05-03 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...this is how I would break it down
2011-05-03 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we recently moved to new highs
2011-05-03 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of that it's unlikely that we've topped before we see some sort of divergence
2011-05-03 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because we made a higher high
2011-05-03 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to gain this divergence we're going to need to see higher prices
2011-05-03 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-05-03 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the relationship between the XLE breadth MCO and its components
2011-05-03 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this further suggests a correction
2011-05-03 16:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if I had a wager right now
2011-05-03 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a flat
2011-05-03 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for everyone else
2011-05-03 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a sideways consolidation
2011-05-03 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is what the position of the MCO and the MCSUM told us it would be
2011-05-03 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Steve....
2011-05-03 16:56:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: flat to the 75 area?
2011-05-03 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to trend
2011-05-03 16:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must have both the short term and intermediate term direction of money flow moving in the same direction
2011-05-03 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when one or the other McClellan's don't agree with each other
2011-05-03 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation would be for sideways action
2011-05-03 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be choppy within a rectangle
2011-05-03 16:57:37 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: thanks. remind me about 1000 times that a falling McSum that's "only" at 500 isn't falling...
2011-05-03 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could also be a triangle
2011-05-03 16:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the downside is limited because the market is out of sync
2011-05-03 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, the MCSUM is falling
2011-05-03 16:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but do you remember what the MCSUM represents on the A/D line?
2011-05-03 16:58:48 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Yep - that's what I meant - it's falling accumulation rate, not distribution.
2011-05-03 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2011-05-03 16:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the MCSUM is measuring the distance between two time period EMA's of the A/D line
2011-05-03 16:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is moving lower from an "overbought" level like we had
2011-05-03 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it tells us that the although the 19 day EMA has either slowed or is moving lower
2011-05-03 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 39 day EMA is still moving higher
2011-05-03 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is measuring the trend of the A/D line on a 39 day average
2011-05-03 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as this configuration remains
2011-05-03 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the direction of the trend remains to the upside
2011-05-03 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any decay in the A/D line will be met by the support of these same EMA's
2011-05-03 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Lew
2011-05-03 17:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...75 would be the target
2011-05-03 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get there
2011-05-03 17:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just use your tools for an entry point
2011-05-03 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and your stop will be narrow
2011-05-03 17:01:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thanks, was my take-now if it goes wrong you can share the blame in my room LOL
2011-05-03 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...I don't remember what I say from one moment to the next
2011-05-03 17:02:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-05-03 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's called "old timers disease"
2011-05-03 17:02:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll keep that handy as well, then
2011-05-03 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just watch the XLE breadth MCSUM as it's finding resistance where we would expect it on the snapback...the +500 level
2011-05-03 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that holds
2011-05-03 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a move lower to the +250 level next
2011-05-03 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly in all of this
2011-05-03 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during bull market conditions
2011-05-03 17:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ultimately these corrections will find support at the -250 level
2011-05-03 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would just keep a wandering eye on the sector for now
2011-05-03 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and concentrate on the easier reads
2011-05-03 17:04:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the XLF data
2011-05-03 17:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have initially found resistance just above the +50 level
2011-05-03 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pull back so far has been holding up nicely
2011-05-03 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM is in an interesting situation here
2011-05-03 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it finding initial resistance at the +250 level
2011-05-03 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also broke above its declining tops line on Friday
2011-05-03 17:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so which is it?
2011-05-03 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fake out...or break out?
2011-05-03 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes...but I'm watching Citi right now as it seems to be telling the story
2011-05-03 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it goes the sector
2011-05-03 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern
2011-05-03 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a close above the April highs, with high volume, would be a buy
2011-05-03 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially since no one is even interested in this sector
2011-05-03 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next to the health care sector
2011-05-03 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there isn't anything I can say that the data isn't already telling you
2011-05-03 17:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strong uptrend in process
2011-05-03 17:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the 3 year -
2011-05-03 17:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are in the clear
2011-05-03 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strong buy here
2011-05-03 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this must mean
2011-05-03 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that Obamacare is in trouble
2011-05-03 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good news for all you capitalists out there!
2011-05-03 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that angle of ascent on the XLV is suggesting that we have a long way to go on the upside
2011-05-03 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually what's going to happen
2011-05-03 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that stocks are going to have to go parabolic since there is so much money chasing products
2011-05-03 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely we're going to see many parabolic moves in stocks over the next year or so
2011-05-03 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is picking and choosing the set ups before they happen
2011-05-03 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been looking at the XLP and XLV since March
2011-05-03 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they haven't disappointed
2011-05-03 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO continues to sputter and is now back to its zero line
2011-05-03 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLI breadth MCSUM finding resistance at the +750 level
2011-05-03 17:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's a good example for you Steve
2011-05-03 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see how the XLI breadth MCSUM topped out in February at the +1500 level
2011-05-03 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since that time, even though the MCSUM has declined, we have seen higher price highs?
2011-05-03 17:13:48 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yep.
2011-05-03 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important to understand how to use technical tools properly
2011-05-03 17:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for everyone I'm sure sold this sector short once the MCSUM turned down
2011-05-03 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like any oscillator out there
2011-05-03 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get as highly "overbought" as we did here, the momentum of this same energy needs to work off before prices can stop moving in this same direction
2011-05-03 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each move higher in the MCSUM is like a mid course adjustment for the space shuttle once it's in orbit
2011-05-03 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't need as much fuel to travel
2011-05-03 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a burst here and there
2011-05-03 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is also below its zero line now
2011-05-03 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain above theirs
2011-05-03 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can say that the price pattern is only correcting excesses at this time
2011-05-03 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be an Elliott flat here as well
2011-05-03 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the mid range close
2011-05-03 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be careful in initiating any shorts here for fear of the pattern again moving in the direction of "least resistance"
2011-05-03 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the XLB breadth MCSUM is at the +1000 level
2011-05-03 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we do turn lower
2011-05-03 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a very good chance that we will still see higher price highs in this sector for a while
2011-05-03 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback in the XLK breadth MCO
2011-05-03 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain corrective
2011-05-03 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that we were turned away at the previous highs on the XLK breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls will need to belly up to the bar and take control here or another move back to the MCSUM zero line will occur
2011-05-03 17:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally to the XLU data
2011-05-03 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that we have finally been able to move higher with the other defensive sectors now
2011-05-03 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and check out the distance of the individual postings of the XLU breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the further the distance, the more the money either moving in or moving out of whatever it's measuring
2011-05-03 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-05-03 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the defensive sectors are leading the way to the upside
2011-05-03 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same sectors are usually the leaders for the broader market as a resting place for money before it's put to work on a more general basis
2011-05-03 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume McClellan's now and see how we're doing there
2011-05-03 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Steve -
2011-05-03 17:23:17 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: gracias
2011-05-03 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we want to see is volume plurality either leading or at least keeping up with its breadth cousin in deciding if the health of a trend is good or not
2011-05-03 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE volume MCO then and we note that it remains at a higher level than that of breadth
2011-05-03 17:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although selling has been broad in the NYSE
2011-05-03 17:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume hasn't been that of a turn in progress
2011-05-03 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so more than likely we're looking at a pause to refresh here
2011-05-03 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where volume plurality indicting more upside to come
2011-05-03 17:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note here that the CO NYSE volume MCSUM is starting to find its first resistance at or near the +250 level
2011-05-03 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while when we we look at the NYSE composite volume MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see better overall strength with our MCSUM resistance at the +500 level
2011-05-03 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens before a change in direction is that we should start looking for changes in trends once the common stocks start to take leadership over the broadly based exchange
2011-05-03 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the CO data is showing lower amplitudes here
2011-05-03 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would indicate that everything else is doing just fine
2011-05-03 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from this we can then forecast higher price highs once any consolidations are complete
2011-05-03 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as we can say that we should see lower price lows during times in which the broad market is leading lower
2011-05-03 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's information like this that will tend to keep our trades focused
2011-05-03 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually consistent in increasing our bottom line
2011-05-03 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the position of the NASDAQ breadth MCO?
2011-05-03 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now look at the position of the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-05-03 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of downside conviction here, is there?
2011-05-03 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can say, in a way, that we're diverging
2011-05-03 17:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be better to say that we are out of sync
2011-05-03 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once the breadth MCO turns higher
2011-05-03 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll be back in sync
2011-05-03 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the volume data is showing more strength
2011-05-03 17:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any turn up from here will tend to show good asks on the trend of the structure
2011-05-03 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the NASDAQ volume MCO moved to new 7 month highs here
2011-05-03 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is power
2011-05-03 17:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is conviction
2011-05-03 17:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although this conviction isn't broadly based
2011-05-03 17:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there IS money moving into the secondaries
2011-05-03 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will tend to keep any pauses from turning into routs
2011-05-03 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that we are again hesitating at another 250 multiple on the NASDAQ volume MCSUM - +500
2011-05-03 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the NDX volume data
2011-05-03 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we haven't as yet seen the SPX volume MCO move to new highs as yeet
2011-05-03 17:34:07 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: could you comment on what seems to be pretty drastic divergence between the nasdq vol mcsum & breadth mcsum?
2011-05-03 17:34:24 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: order of magnitude (50/500)
2011-05-03 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of the problems we have faced over the last two months has been volume related
2011-05-03 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we first had to correct very high MCSUM readings in the volume end of the spectrum
2011-05-03 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but liquidity has been so extensive that it hasn't given the breadth side an opportunity to accomplished the same thing
2011-05-03 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market is important because it tells you how high the liquidity lake is
2011-05-03 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume of market is important because it's the energy that allows your boat (prices) to either tread or more forward
2011-05-03 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it the wind that pushes the sails
2011-05-03 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although the lake remains full
2011-05-03 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been little in the way of energy to push prices without stopping and starting
2011-05-03 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all
2011-05-03 17:37:29 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: so we're "dragging on a sandbar" with low lake level (breadth) and high wind?
2011-05-03 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much
2011-05-03 17:37:55 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: makes sense.
2011-05-03 17:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's been choppy but with a forward bias
2011-05-03 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (with a little help from time to time)
2011-05-03 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid
2011-05-03 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would take my clues on the health of the market from the NYSE data first and foremost
2011-05-03 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason is that NASDAQ stocks don't have an earnings track record
2011-05-03 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are "on the come"
2011-05-03 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a bet of future growth
2011-05-03 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and returns nothing in the meantime
2011-05-03 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money, when forced, will also seek areas in which it can make more money
2011-05-03 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of value over growth
2011-05-03 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it takes a lot of excesses in the system to even find their way to the NASDAQ
2011-05-03 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes it important information to work with when we do see any excesses moving into this arena
2011-05-03 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-05-03 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would rather see the volume MCSUM move ahead of the breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because, more than likely, it's going into stocks that are higher weighted in the index itself
2011-05-03 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and therefore you can have better confidence on the direction of the index itself
2011-05-03 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume moves prices
2011-05-03 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth supports them
2011-05-03 17:42:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you know me-I always like volume first
2011-05-03 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're getting it now
2011-05-03 17:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike a month or so ago
2011-05-03 17:43:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep!
2011-05-03 17:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things in which we might want to key in on moving forward in trying to anticipate a top
2011-05-03 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to watch the OEX and Dow volume MCSUM's
2011-05-03 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see
2011-05-03 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they currently remain below their zero lines
2011-05-03 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when the broader market indices move to zero or below
2011-05-03 17:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX and Dow will probably be the last ones above zero as the trend matures and starts to exhaust itself
2011-05-03 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's going to be sometime this summer it would seem at this point
2011-05-03 17:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...we're still on target for price highs sometime in late spring as the McSUM's suggested back in February
2011-05-03 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't think it would after Japan...did you?
2011-05-03 17:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-05-03 17:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's the power of these tools and what they represent
2011-05-03 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the power of TA when used appropriately
2011-05-03 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finishing up with the volume data
2011-05-03 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that there's been better strength with the SML volume MCSUM than that of the MID volume MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should support our continued idea of an advance for at least the rest of this month
2011-05-03 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there has been only been a few times that I can even think of when the markets have topped out with a strong small cap sector
2011-05-03 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best example of which was 1968
2011-05-03 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that was a different time
2011-05-03 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...breadth and volume continue to suggest that we still have unfinished business to the upside still yet to come
2011-05-03 17:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators -
2011-05-03 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are mixed
2011-05-03 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like the NDX is taking the blunt of any corrections here
2011-05-03 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2011-05-03 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew that the NASDAQ Open 10 has been "overbought" for a couple of days now
2011-05-03 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so hopefully we'll see some relief there in a moment
2011-05-03 17:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain highly "overbought"
2011-05-03 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe we'll get a good shake out tomorrow before we resume higher by Thursday
2011-05-03 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are getting frothy here as well
2011-05-03 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we know from earlier this year
2011-05-03 17:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can stay frothy during strong uptrends
2011-05-03 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .86 -
2011-05-03 17:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2011-05-03 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .61
2011-05-03 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .76
2011-05-03 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "overbought"
2011-05-03 17:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we also know
2011-05-03 17:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can get to about .60 and we can still have higher prices
2011-05-03 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .72
2011-05-03 17:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there was nice buying today
2011-05-03 17:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2011-05-03 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-03 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to control the action
2011-05-03 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're starting to see some frothiness in some areas
2011-05-03 17:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some hesitancy in others
2011-05-03 17:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also seem to be stair stepping our way higher
2011-05-03 17:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is healthy
2011-05-03 17:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any downside should be shallow and brief
2011-05-03 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so hit and run remains the credo for the scalpers
2011-05-03 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-05-03 17:54:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: opinion on SLV?
2011-05-03 17:54:50 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Thanks, Dave.
2011-05-03 17:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2011-05-03 17:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me look - one moment
2011-05-03 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugh
2011-05-03 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good day
2011-05-03 17:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closed at 40.58
2011-05-03 17:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2011-05-03 17:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 40.82 was the .382 target of a larger (4)
2011-05-03 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...time for a bounce
2011-05-03 17:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would look for a snapback to the 20 day EMA first - at 42.33
2011-05-03 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consolidate
2011-05-03 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll know what we have
2011-05-03 17:57:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my take also, surprised the 3 wave didn't break the old high
2011-05-03 17:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did intraday
2011-05-03 17:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe I have the degree of trend wrong?
2011-05-03 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-05-03 17:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know is that we had a sell signal on the SAR yesterday
2011-05-03 17:57:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have same, dunno
2011-05-03 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now need to build a foundation here
2011-05-03 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fundamentally...things remain bullish for the precious metals
2011-05-03 17:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you raise margin requirements, that's usually a sign of a top
2011-05-03 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-05-03 17:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not married to the count
2011-05-03 17:58:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 17:58:51 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: my hourly momo indicators sure look like it's "broken" for a few days - short the 20 for around 35?
2011-05-03 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know yet
2011-05-03 17:59:14 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I know - too far in the future.
2011-05-03 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to be so careful with parabolic moves
2011-05-03 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see texture
2011-05-03 17:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see HOW we bounce
2011-05-03 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WHEN we bounce
2011-05-03 17:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF we bounce
2011-05-03 17:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...I have too many other areas I'm concentrating on
2011-05-03 18:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver is behind me for now
2011-05-03 18:00:13 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yeah, thanks for the heads up on the defensive sectors.
2011-05-03 18:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have trouble working with patterns that don't a proper set up
2011-05-03 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing, isn't it?
2011-05-03 18:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to all of this is simple
2011-05-03 18:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first you find out what direction money is moving
2011-05-03 18:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you dig to find out where its moving to
2011-05-03 18:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far...defensive sectors are screaming here
2011-05-03 18:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and REIT's
2011-05-03 18:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Bonds
2011-05-03 18:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intersting
2011-05-03 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all defensive...aren't they?
2011-05-03 18:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2011-05-03 18:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll call it a day
2011-05-03 18:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-05-03 18:02:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks!
2011-05-03 18:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what's happening on Thursday
2011-05-03 18:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-05-03 18:02:49 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: good night as well

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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