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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-05-03 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-05-03 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-05-03 16:00:19 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: fine
2011-05-03 16:00:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thanks. And you?
2011-05-03 16:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good
2011-05-03 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice to be back down to a more intimate size
2011-05-03 16:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2011-05-03 16:01:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I wonder if you might help me with XLE later, please.
2011-05-03 16:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure nuff
2011-05-03 16:02:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 16:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll cover the sectors today
2011-05-03 16:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth...volume...or both?
2011-05-03 16:02:35 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I'd like to go over the small caps, please
2011-05-03 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good...part and parcel of the chat...and welcome Steve...enjoy your stay!
2011-05-03 16:03:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: count-kinda
2011-05-03 16:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott...
2011-05-03 16:03:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-05-03 16:03:46 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I will. Thanks
2011-05-03 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-05-03 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just so you know Steve
2011-05-03 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't prep in any way before the chat
2011-05-03 16:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything is a surprise to me
2011-05-03 16:04:32 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol - 10.4.
2011-05-03 16:04:38 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I studied, teach...
2011-05-03 16:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I find it important because you don't have any preconceived notions of what the market is doing
2011-05-03 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it gives a fresh take
2011-05-03 16:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that...
2011-05-03 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we start here - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsi_NYC.html
2011-05-03 16:05:33 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Understand. I can appreciate that; you're probably not invested in the positions I am, and you're much more used to doing this
2011-05-03 16:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..my "advantage" is that I've been doing this so long, and with a number 2 pencil and graph paper, that things just jump out at me
2011-05-03 16:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to most things technical is your level of "intimacy" with the market
2011-05-03 16:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what she "whispers in your ear" so to speak
2011-05-03 16:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so having a source like DP allows me to interpret and not work at it
2011-05-03 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-05-03 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-05-03 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we go
2011-05-03 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to just below the +50 level last week
2011-05-03 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now given us our obligatory snapback to the zero line
2011-05-03 16:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being at the zero line says that we have a equal amount of buyers and sellers on a short term basis
2011-05-03 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that one side is about to take control of the action within this time frame
2011-05-03 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bringing our line of vision to the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that this snapback is part of the natural resistance of the +500 level on the chart
2011-05-03 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +500 level is the demarcation point of not only the market being "overbought" on an intermediate term basis
2011-05-03 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we are able to move above this specific line
2011-05-03 16:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we will be able to achieve enough thrust to provide escape velocity
2011-05-03 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not too surprising that we see a pause in the flow of money so that we can look around (if you will) and see if we have agreement among traders
2011-05-03 16:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE MCO components at the bottom of the chart
2011-05-03 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that with the MCO slightly below its zero line
2011-05-03 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components remain above theirs
2011-05-03 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would instruct us that we are again in a correctional mode
2011-05-03 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even more importantly
2011-05-03 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the MCO is at around the zero line
2011-05-03 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components will have a tendency help generate the technical bounce off this same zero line
2011-05-03 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a better bounce higher tomorrow internally
2011-05-03 16:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price pattern bar
2011-05-03 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had a mid range close
2011-05-03 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a rally attempt is suggested there as well
2011-05-03 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the ratio adjusted NYSE breadth MCO (2 clicks Steve)
2011-05-03 16:14:21 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: gracias
2011-05-03 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to snapback towards the zero line but remain above it
2011-05-03 16:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that the interest rate sensitive issues that make up the NYSE exchange continue to hold up the rest of the market
2011-05-03 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would short term bullish behavior
2011-05-03 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that unlike the common only components
2011-05-03 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite components remain in a bullish crossover configuration with the 10% above the 5% component
2011-05-03 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so overall, the bulls continue to control the action for the time being
2011-05-03 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that a bounce higher would be indicated as soon as tomorrow
2011-05-03 16:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today
2011-05-03 16:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the components are also below their zero line suggesting a short term sell signal
2011-05-03 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we remain within range of its zero line
2011-05-03 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bulls needing some conviction here or a failure might be the result given that we weren't able to take out the previous highs during this recent run up
2011-05-03 16:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ composite index
2011-05-03 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that not only did we have a mid range close
2011-05-03 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have also satisfied a simple snapback to the breakout of the price pattern itself
2011-05-03 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tomorrow becomes a somewhat important day for the bulls
2011-05-03 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for they don't want to allow too much more sag here or the pattern could be in jeopardy of a rally failure
2011-05-03 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Elliott wise could be the B wave of an irregular flat
2011-05-03 16:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty easily seen on the daily bar chart
2011-05-03 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 3 waves down...3 waves up
2011-05-03 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then C would be 5 down
2011-05-03 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: helping the NASDAQ composite, the NDX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2011-05-03 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components still on a buy signal
2011-05-03 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the two charts
2011-05-03 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still the NDX that is doing the work here on a near term basis
2011-05-03 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market (in general) is going to move significantly higher as we have been thinking it would for the last week or so
2011-05-03 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that we get a more broadly based rally out of the NASDAQ composite of stocks
2011-05-03 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this, the upside will be fairly limited to maybe only a challenge of the summer of 2007 highs on many of the NYSE related indices
2011-05-03 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes
2011-05-03 16:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX, though, remains bullish at this time
2011-05-03 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved lower today
2011-05-03 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we note that its current MCO levels suggest good underlying strength with the index itself
2011-05-03 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that this pull back in the MCO is taking place as we approach our next 250 multiple on the MCSUM - the +750 level
2011-05-03 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we do find resistance here
2011-05-03 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM curls lower
2011-05-03 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still should expect higher price highs in the SPX before we have to worry about a change in trend
2011-05-03 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX MCO components are suggesting a technical bounce as soon as tomorrow as well because of their close approximation to each other
2011-05-03 16:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had mid range close here as well
2011-05-03 16:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback to the February highs is now complete
2011-05-03 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the OEX price pattern as far as completing a simple snapback
2011-05-03 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we look at the OEX breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that selling here has been more reserved
2011-05-03 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the cream stocks (those that rise to the top) seem to be attracting money at this time
2011-05-03 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those of the top 100 from both exchanges
2011-05-03 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually this will occur as money moves out of defensive sectors (staples, health care, and utilities) before this same money is finally exposed to the broader market
2011-05-03 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could mean that we may be only days away from an upside acceleration here
2011-05-03 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how far we go will depend on how broad based any rally from here will show
2011-05-03 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-05-03 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much money is able to find its way in the secondary markets
2011-05-03 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the SML will give us a tip off to that
2011-05-03 16:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can plainly see how this idea is applied to the Dow 30 stocks
2011-05-03 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small point change in the Dow breadth MCO while it remains firmly "overbought"
2011-05-03 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these high levels are now really showing intermediate strength with the Dow breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it easily moved through the +1000 level today
2011-05-03 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next stop now is the +1250 level
2011-05-03 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we've seen its been turned away twice now in the last 52 weeks
2011-05-03 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of strength then suggests that we are nowhere near a tradable top in the Dow
2011-05-03 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we're able to break above the +1250 level
2011-05-03 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will clear the way for a challenge of the all time highs above the 14,000 level
2011-05-03 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO has fully snapback to its zero line
2011-05-03 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side is about to now take control of the action
2011-05-03 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this snapback to zero is taking place as the MID breadth MCSUM is approaching the +750 level
2011-05-03 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too...even if we turn lower from here on the MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should still expect to see higher price highs in the MID index before we any chance of a change in the direction of the current trend
2011-05-03 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID price pattern itself
2011-05-03 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see our old bullish constructive foundation of "stair stepping" higher
2011-05-03 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move up...pause...move up...pause
2011-05-03 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very healthy rising structure
2011-05-03 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although being that we're in the 3rd year of the run
2011-05-03 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that we are closer to the end than that of the beginning
2011-05-03 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern of the SML echos that of the MID
2011-05-03 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCO continues to show more decay than that of the mid caps
2011-05-03 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our near term expectation with any bounce is for the SML breadth MCO to snapback up to its zero line
2011-05-03 16:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be what it does after that
2011-05-03 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will give us our blueprint for the rest of May as far as what we should expect
2011-05-03 16:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that the 10 and 5 percent components remain above their zero line
2011-05-03 16:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too we can say that we're only correcting here
2011-05-03 16:39:18 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I know that we haven't been discussing the volume McO's yet this evening. Will that be later, or can we discuss the SML volume here?
2011-05-03 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no sign of an actual top
2011-05-03 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll hit the volume area later on
2011-05-03 16:39:40 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: 10.4
2011-05-03 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally we note that this turn below the zero line on the MCO coincides with the SML breadth MCSUM finding "overbought" resistance at the +500 level
2011-05-03 16:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the fact that we already weren't able to move above this same level back in early April
2011-05-03 16:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is our cue that we are, indeed, getting closer and closer to some sort of termination in the uptrend
2011-05-03 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the caution here that needs to be stressed, however, is that this can take several more months before we actually see this same termination
2011-05-03 16:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it a shot off the bow for now just to keep us on our toes
2011-05-03 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not to get to excited about further prospects going forward
2011-05-03 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Elliotticians who are looking a center point of 3 here of Primary degree
2011-05-03 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this index will need to really perform with the rest of the market to make it a confirmed move
2011-05-03 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we need to patient and not jump the gun
2011-05-03 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the TM breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a bounce higher tomorrow
2011-05-03 16:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how the SML and the NASDAQ composite are putting a drag on the rest of the market
2011-05-03 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the TM breadth MCSUM is finding hard just to get to the +500 level
2011-05-03 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-05-03 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control of the short term trend
2011-05-03 16:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they will need to get more participation here in the next two trading days otherwise we're likely to move sideways for a week or so
2011-05-03 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, will bring out the bears claiming top
2011-05-03 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we know otherwise
2011-05-03 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sector charts
2011-05-03 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO has also snapback to zero
2011-05-03 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with all of these zero line tests here
2011-05-03 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the same as saying that the market is undecided on what to do next
2011-05-03 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intermediate term says we that the odds suggest a move by the bulls initially
2011-05-03 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will still be important for see support come in for this same move
2011-05-03 16:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like going to the Frankenstein castle as a mob
2011-05-03 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you hope that when you turn around you'll have backers behind you
2011-05-03 16:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the mob thins out
2011-05-03 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you won't be able to do much damage but throw your pitchforks in the air and yell a lot
2011-05-03 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLP breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:49:17 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol - that makes me think of "fuzzy bottoms" on candles..
2011-05-03 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see where money has been going now for the last several weeks
2011-05-03 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-05-03 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 3 year chart for a moment - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsiSum_XLP.html
2011-05-03 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we are now within spitting distance of making new highs for this current bull trend here on the XLP breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is able to be done
2011-05-03 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this basket of stocks really has nothing keeping it from moving to higher and higher levels
2011-05-03 16:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how the angle of ascent continues to increase of late
2011-05-03 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is a very hot sector and should be looked at with a keen eye
2011-05-03 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the XLE
2011-05-03 16:51:53 [Message] gman -> Chat: Dave, I just got home from work. Which sector are you referring to?
2011-05-03 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hi john
2011-05-03 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP...consumer staples - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsiSum_XLP.html
2011-05-03 16:52:43 [Message] gman -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 16:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the defensive areas are screaming buy right now as we will see
2011-05-03 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Lew...what was your question on the XLE?
2011-05-03 16:53:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just wondering pattern wise-flat, irregular flat, or 1 of wave in doing a 2 now-your opinion?
2011-05-03 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...this is how I would break it down
2011-05-03 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth MCO
2011-05-03 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we recently moved to new highs
2011-05-03 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of that it's unlikely that we've topped before we see some sort of divergence
2011-05-03 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because we made a higher high
2011-05-03 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to gain this divergence we're going to need to see higher prices
2011-05-03 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-05-03 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the relationship between the XLE breadth MCO and its components
2011-05-03 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this further suggests a correction
2011-05-03 16:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if I had a wager right now
2011-05-03 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a flat
2011-05-03 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for everyone else
2011-05-03 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a sideways consolidation
2011-05-03 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is what the position of the MCO and the MCSUM told us it would be
2011-05-03 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Steve....
2011-05-03 16:56:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: flat to the 75 area?
2011-05-03 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to trend
2011-05-03 16:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must have both the short term and intermediate term direction of money flow moving in the same direction
2011-05-03 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when one or the other McClellan's don't agree with each other
2011-05-03 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation would be for sideways action
2011-05-03 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be choppy within a rectangle
2011-05-03 16:57:37 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: thanks. remind me about 1000 times that a falling McSum that's "only" at 500 isn't falling...
2011-05-03 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could also be a triangle
2011-05-03 16:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the downside is limited because the market is out of sync
2011-05-03 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, the MCSUM is falling
2011-05-03 16:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but do you remember what the MCSUM represents on the A/D line?
2011-05-03 16:58:48 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Yep - that's what I meant - it's falling accumulation rate, not distribution.
2011-05-03 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2011-05-03 16:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the MCSUM is measuring the distance between two time period EMA's of the A/D line
2011-05-03 16:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is moving lower from an "overbought" level like we had
2011-05-03 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it tells us that the although the 19 day EMA has either slowed or is moving lower
2011-05-03 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 39 day EMA is still moving higher
2011-05-03 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is measuring the trend of the A/D line on a 39 day average
2011-05-03 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as this configuration remains
2011-05-03 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the direction of the trend remains to the upside
2011-05-03 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any decay in the A/D line will be met by the support of these same EMA's
2011-05-03 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Lew
2011-05-03 17:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...75 would be the target
2011-05-03 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get there
2011-05-03 17:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just use your tools for an entry point
2011-05-03 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and your stop will be narrow
2011-05-03 17:01:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thanks, was my take-now if it goes wrong you can share the blame in my room LOL
2011-05-03 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...I don't remember what I say from one moment to the next
2011-05-03 17:02:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-05-03 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's called "old timers disease"
2011-05-03 17:02:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll keep that handy as well, then
2011-05-03 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just watch the XLE breadth MCSUM as it's finding resistance where we would expect it on the snapback...the +500 level
2011-05-03 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that holds
2011-05-03 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a move lower to the +250 level next
2011-05-03 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly in all of this
2011-05-03 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during bull market conditions
2011-05-03 17:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ultimately these corrections will find support at the -250 level
2011-05-03 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would just keep a wandering eye on the sector for now
2011-05-03 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and concentrate on the easier reads
2011-05-03 17:04:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the XLF data
2011-05-03 17:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have initially found resistance just above the +50 level
2011-05-03 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pull back so far has been holding up nicely
2011-05-03 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM is in an interesting situation here
2011-05-03 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it finding initial resistance at the +250 level
2011-05-03 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also broke above its declining tops line on Friday
2011-05-03 17:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so which is it?
2011-05-03 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fake out...or break out?
2011-05-03 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes...but I'm watching Citi right now as it seems to be telling the story
2011-05-03 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it goes...so goes the sector
2011-05-03 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern
2011-05-03 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a close above the April highs, with high volume, would be a buy
2011-05-03 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially since no one is even interested in this sector
2011-05-03 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next to the health care sector
2011-05-03 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there isn't anything I can say that the data isn't already telling you
2011-05-03 17:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strong uptrend in process
2011-05-03 17:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the 3 year - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsiSum_XLV.html
2011-05-03 17:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are in the clear
2011-05-03 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strong buy here
2011-05-03 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this must mean
2011-05-03 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that Obamacare is in trouble
2011-05-03 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good news for all you capitalists out there!
2011-05-03 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that angle of ascent on the XLV is suggesting that we have a long way to go on the upside
2011-05-03 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually what's going to happen
2011-05-03 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that stocks are going to have to go parabolic since there is so much money chasing products
2011-05-03 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely we're going to see many parabolic moves in stocks over the next year or so
2011-05-03 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is picking and choosing the set ups before they happen
2011-05-03 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been looking at the XLP and XLV since March
2011-05-03 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they haven't disappointed
2011-05-03 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO continues to sputter and is now back to its zero line
2011-05-03 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLI breadth MCSUM finding resistance at the +750 level
2011-05-03 17:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's a good example for you Steve
2011-05-03 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see how the XLI breadth MCSUM topped out in February at the +1500 level
2011-05-03 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since that time, even though the MCSUM has declined, we have seen higher price highs?
2011-05-03 17:13:48 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yep.
2011-05-03 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important to understand how to use technical tools properly
2011-05-03 17:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for everyone I'm sure sold this sector short once the MCSUM turned down
2011-05-03 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like any oscillator out there
2011-05-03 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get as highly "overbought" as we did here, the momentum of this same energy needs to work off before prices can stop moving in this same direction
2011-05-03 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each move higher in the MCSUM is like a mid course adjustment for the space shuttle once it's in orbit
2011-05-03 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't need as much fuel to travel
2011-05-03 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a burst here and there
2011-05-03 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is also below its zero line now
2011-05-03 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain above theirs
2011-05-03 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can say that the price pattern is only correcting excesses at this time
2011-05-03 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be an Elliott flat here as well
2011-05-03 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the mid range close
2011-05-03 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be careful in initiating any shorts here for fear of the pattern again moving in the direction of "least resistance"
2011-05-03 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the XLB breadth MCSUM is at the +1000 level
2011-05-03 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we do turn lower
2011-05-03 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a very good chance that we will still see higher price highs in this sector for a while
2011-05-03 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback in the XLK breadth MCO
2011-05-03 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain corrective
2011-05-03 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that we were turned away at the previous highs on the XLK breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls will need to belly up to the bar and take control here or another move back to the MCSUM zero line will occur
2011-05-03 17:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally to the XLU data
2011-05-03 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that we have finally been able to move higher with the other defensive sectors now
2011-05-03 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and check out the distance of the individual postings of the XLU breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the further the distance, the more the money either moving in or moving out of whatever it's measuring
2011-05-03 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-05-03 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the defensive sectors are leading the way to the upside
2011-05-03 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same sectors are usually the leaders for the broader market as a resting place for money before it's put to work on a more general basis
2011-05-03 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume McClellan's now and see how we're doing there
2011-05-03 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Steve - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosi_vol_nyc.html
2011-05-03 17:23:17 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: gracias
2011-05-03 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we want to see is volume plurality either leading or at least keeping up with its breadth cousin in deciding if the health of a trend is good or not
2011-05-03 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE volume MCO then and we note that it remains at a higher level than that of breadth
2011-05-03 17:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although selling has been broad in the NYSE
2011-05-03 17:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume hasn't been that of a turn in progress
2011-05-03 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so more than likely we're looking at a pause to refresh here
2011-05-03 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where volume plurality indicting more upside to come
2011-05-03 17:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note here that the CO NYSE volume MCSUM is starting to find its first resistance at or near the +250 level
2011-05-03 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while when we we look at the NYSE composite volume MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see better overall strength with our MCSUM resistance at the +500 level
2011-05-03 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens before a change in direction is that we should start looking for changes in trends once the common stocks start to take leadership over the broadly based exchange
2011-05-03 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the CO data is showing lower amplitudes here
2011-05-03 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would indicate that everything else is doing just fine
2011-05-03 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from this we can then forecast higher price highs once any consolidations are complete
2011-05-03 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as we can say that we should see lower price lows during times in which the broad market is leading lower
2011-05-03 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's information like this that will tend to keep our trades focused
2011-05-03 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually consistent in increasing our bottom line
2011-05-03 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the position of the NASDAQ breadth MCO?
2011-05-03 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now look at the position of the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-05-03 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of downside conviction here, is there?
2011-05-03 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can say, in a way, that we're diverging
2011-05-03 17:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be better to say that we are out of sync
2011-05-03 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once the breadth MCO turns higher
2011-05-03 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll be back in sync
2011-05-03 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the volume data is showing more strength
2011-05-03 17:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any turn up from here will tend to show good asks on the trend of the structure
2011-05-03 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the NASDAQ volume MCO moved to new 7 month highs here
2011-05-03 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is power
2011-05-03 17:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is conviction
2011-05-03 17:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although this conviction isn't broadly based
2011-05-03 17:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there IS money moving into the secondaries
2011-05-03 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will tend to keep any pauses from turning into routs
2011-05-03 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that we are again hesitating at another 250 multiple on the NASDAQ volume MCSUM - +500
2011-05-03 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the NDX volume data
2011-05-03 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we haven't as yet seen the SPX volume MCO move to new highs as yeet
2011-05-03 17:34:07 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: could you comment on what seems to be pretty drastic divergence between the nasdq vol mcsum & breadth mcsum?
2011-05-03 17:34:24 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: order of magnitude (50/500)
2011-05-03 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...one of the problems we have faced over the last two months has been volume related
2011-05-03 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we first had to correct very high MCSUM readings in the volume end of the spectrum
2011-05-03 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but liquidity has been so extensive that it hasn't given the breadth side an opportunity to accomplished the same thing
2011-05-03 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market is important because it tells you how high the liquidity lake is
2011-05-03 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume of market is important because it's the energy that allows your boat (prices) to either tread or more forward
2011-05-03 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it the wind that pushes the sails
2011-05-03 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although the lake remains full
2011-05-03 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been little in the way of energy to push prices without stopping and starting
2011-05-03 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all
2011-05-03 17:37:29 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: so we're "dragging on a sandbar" with low lake level (breadth) and high wind?
2011-05-03 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much
2011-05-03 17:37:55 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: makes sense.
2011-05-03 17:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's been choppy but with a forward bias
2011-05-03 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (with a little help from time to time)
2011-05-03 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid
2011-05-03 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would take my clues on the health of the market from the NYSE data first and foremost
2011-05-03 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason is that NASDAQ stocks don't have an earnings track record
2011-05-03 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are "on the come"
2011-05-03 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a bet of future growth
2011-05-03 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and returns nothing in the meantime
2011-05-03 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money, when forced, will also seek areas in which it can make more money
2011-05-03 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of value over growth
2011-05-03 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it takes a lot of excesses in the system to even find their way to the NASDAQ
2011-05-03 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes it important information to work with when we do see any excesses moving into this arena
2011-05-03 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-05-03 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would rather see the volume MCSUM move ahead of the breadth MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because, more than likely, it's going into stocks that are higher weighted in the index itself
2011-05-03 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and therefore you can have better confidence on the direction of the index itself
2011-05-03 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume moves prices
2011-05-03 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth supports them
2011-05-03 17:42:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you know me-I always like volume first
2011-05-03 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're getting it now
2011-05-03 17:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike a month or so ago
2011-05-03 17:43:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep!
2011-05-03 17:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things in which we might want to key in on moving forward in trying to anticipate a top
2011-05-03 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to watch the OEX and Dow volume MCSUM's
2011-05-03 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see
2011-05-03 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they currently remain below their zero lines
2011-05-03 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when the broader market indices move to zero or below
2011-05-03 17:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX and Dow will probably be the last ones above zero as the trend matures and starts to exhaust itself
2011-05-03 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's going to be sometime this summer it would seem at this point
2011-05-03 17:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...we're still on target for price highs sometime in late spring as the McSUM's suggested back in February
2011-05-03 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't think it would after Japan...did you?
2011-05-03 17:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-05-03 17:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's the power of these tools and what they represent
2011-05-03 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the power of TA when used appropriately
2011-05-03 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finishing up with the volume data
2011-05-03 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that there's been better strength with the SML volume MCSUM than that of the MID volume MCSUM
2011-05-03 17:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should support our continued idea of an advance for at least the rest of this month
2011-05-03 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there has been only been a few times that I can even think of when the markets have topped out with a strong small cap sector
2011-05-03 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best example of which was 1968
2011-05-03 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that was a different time
2011-05-03 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...breadth and volume continue to suggest that we still have unfinished business to the upside still yet to come
2011-05-03 17:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/cvi1yr.html
2011-05-03 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are mixed
2011-05-03 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like the NDX is taking the blunt of any corrections here
2011-05-03 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2011-05-03 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew that the NASDAQ Open 10 has been "overbought" for a couple of days now
2011-05-03 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so hopefully we'll see some relief there in a moment
2011-05-03 17:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain highly "overbought"
2011-05-03 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe we'll get a good shake out tomorrow before we resume higher by Thursday
2011-05-03 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are getting frothy here as well
2011-05-03 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we know from earlier this year
2011-05-03 17:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can stay frothy during strong uptrends
2011-05-03 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .86 - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/TRIN_1yr.html
2011-05-03 17:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2011-05-03 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .61
2011-05-03 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .76
2011-05-03 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "overbought"
2011-05-03 17:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we also know
2011-05-03 17:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can get to about .60 and we can still have higher prices
2011-05-03 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .72
2011-05-03 17:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there was nice buying today
2011-05-03 17:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2011-05-03 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-03 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to control the action
2011-05-03 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're starting to see some frothiness in some areas
2011-05-03 17:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some hesitancy in others
2011-05-03 17:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also seem to be stair stepping our way higher
2011-05-03 17:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is healthy
2011-05-03 17:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any downside should be shallow and brief
2011-05-03 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so hit and run remains the credo for the scalpers
2011-05-03 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-05-03 17:54:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: opinion on SLV?
2011-05-03 17:54:50 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Thanks, Dave.
2011-05-03 17:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2011-05-03 17:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me look - one moment
2011-05-03 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugh
2011-05-03 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good day
2011-05-03 17:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closed at 40.58
2011-05-03 17:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2011-05-03 17:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 40.82 was the .382 target of a larger (4)
2011-05-03 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...time for a bounce
2011-05-03 17:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would look for a snapback to the 20 day EMA first - at 42.33
2011-05-03 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consolidate
2011-05-03 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll know what we have
2011-05-03 17:57:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my take also, surprised the 3 wave didn't break the old high
2011-05-03 17:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it did intraday
2011-05-03 17:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe I have the degree of trend wrong?
2011-05-03 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-05-03 17:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know is that we had a sell signal on the SAR yesterday
2011-05-03 17:57:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have same, dunno
2011-05-03 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now need to build a foundation here
2011-05-03 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fundamentally...things remain bullish for the precious metals
2011-05-03 17:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you raise margin requirements, that's usually a sign of a top
2011-05-03 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-05-03 17:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not married to the count
2011-05-03 17:58:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-03 17:58:51 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: my hourly momo indicators sure look like it's "broken" for a few days - short the 20 for around 35?
2011-05-03 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know yet
2011-05-03 17:59:14 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I know - too far in the future.
2011-05-03 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to be so careful with parabolic moves
2011-05-03 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see texture
2011-05-03 17:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see HOW we bounce
2011-05-03 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WHEN we bounce
2011-05-03 17:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF we bounce
2011-05-03 17:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...I have too many other areas I'm concentrating on
2011-05-03 18:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver is behind me for now
2011-05-03 18:00:13 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yeah, thanks for the heads up on the defensive sectors.
2011-05-03 18:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have trouble working with patterns that don't a proper set up
2011-05-03 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing, isn't it?
2011-05-03 18:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to all of this is simple
2011-05-03 18:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first you find out what direction money is moving
2011-05-03 18:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you dig to find out where its moving to
2011-05-03 18:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far..by far...defensive sectors are screaming here
2011-05-03 18:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and REIT's
2011-05-03 18:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Bonds
2011-05-03 18:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intersting
2011-05-03 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all defensive...aren't they?
2011-05-03 18:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2011-05-03 18:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll call it a day
2011-05-03 18:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-05-03 18:02:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks!
2011-05-03 18:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what's happening on Thursday
2011-05-03 18:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-05-03 18:02:49 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: good night as well

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