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Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-05-29 19:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-05-29 19:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-05-29 19:01:19 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: hi fib
2008-05-29 19:02:01 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: still super busy with your work?
2008-05-29 19:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still brisk here
2008-05-29 19:03:18 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: good to hear..wonder when the consumer will drop down and die?
2008-05-29 19:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pretty remarkable, eh?
2008-05-29 19:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like most animals, we also adjust
2008-05-29 19:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 87 now at 4.10 today
2008-05-29 19:04:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Like the Borg
2008-05-29 19:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and STILL people are buying fuel...imagine that!
2008-05-29 19:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: assimilation is a bit different than adjusting
2008-05-29 19:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...what's on your collective minds today?
2008-05-29 19:05:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Borg not only assimilate, but adapt as well
2008-05-29 19:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sounds all too familiar
2008-05-29 19:05:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: This scary reversal thing is getting old
2008-05-29 19:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it?
2008-05-29 19:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-05-29 19:06:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: But at end of day, higher highs and higher lows....
2008-05-29 19:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't you just love opinions?
2008-05-29 19:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even the technicians are eating themselves right's all pretty humorous
2008-05-29 19:07:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: higher highs and lows for 2+ months now
2008-05-29 19:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: imagine that
2008-05-29 19:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you would think we're down some 50% by the way many talk
2008-05-29 19:08:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Reminds me of tonites' news program
2008-05-29 19:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even on the floor..."the March bottom finished the credit scare, and NOW we should see a recessionary bottom
2008-05-29 19:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile...there still even isn't anything even fundamentally that says recession
2008-05-29 19:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even the "slow but sure" indicators
2008-05-29 19:10:01 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: not one negative gdp quarter
2008-05-29 19:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be fair...we had several months of LEI below zero PRIOR to the correction
2008-05-29 19:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is right?
2008-05-29 19:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or left?
2008-05-29 19:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-05-29 19:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: questions or comments today?
2008-05-29 19:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about those interest rates?
2008-05-29 19:11:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, comment
2008-05-29 19:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fire away!
2008-05-29 19:11:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So I am ready to mortgage farm and buy long, been watching too long
2008-05-29 19:11:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: so must be a top
2008-05-29 19:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is your reasoning to do so?
2008-05-29 19:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: technical or fundamental - you pick it
2008-05-29 19:12:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: just frustration
2008-05-29 19:12:38 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: can't possibly be funnymental
2008-05-29 19:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so because you're frustrated, your going to throw your money into the till?
2008-05-29 19:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can send it me!
2008-05-29 19:13:11 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room:
2008-05-29 19:13:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: maybe not a good idea, when you put it that way
2008-05-29 19:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "sit on your hands" - sound familiar?
2008-05-29 19:13:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will send directly to you......
2008-05-29 19:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fine...and I well take berry berry good care of it
2008-05-29 19:13:50 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: ""
2008-05-29 19:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-05-29 19:14:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, been sitting for over a month
2008-05-29 19:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, a donation wouldn't hurt, or you can use one of the ads
2008-05-29 19:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you know that cash is a position as well?
2008-05-29 19:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to be frank
2008-05-29 19:15:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Need to get IBD
2008-05-29 19:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when there's no trend, there's no need to trade
2008-05-29 19:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I highly recommend IBD - you can bypass the news and opinions...the rest is stellar stuff
2008-05-29 19:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just to get "" is worth the money
2008-05-29 19:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they really teach you a lot
2008-05-29 19:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even me...
2008-05-29 19:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes you can forget guidelines and rules...always a student
2008-05-29 19:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I guess if there's no questions, I'll get DP up and we'll get started
2008-05-29 19:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: before we get to todays data
2008-05-29 19:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's remember what we were looking for on Tuesday
2008-05-29 19:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had several MCO's below their "blip resistance" areas
2008-05-29 19:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and several MCSUM's at or above their zero lines
2008-05-29 19:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, there really wasn't anything to forecast for the near term
2008-05-29 19:18:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: now above blips and -, ..... I peeked
2008-05-29 19:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it was up to both sides to make a statement
2008-05-29 19:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no fair - I haven't looked yet!!
2008-05-29 19:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if that's the case, what is the significance in moving above these same blip levels?
2008-05-29 19:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (we talked about this on Tuesday...let's see if you remember)
2008-05-29 19:20:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: overcome nt resistance
2008-05-29 19:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK - go on
2008-05-29 19:20:53 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: the willing seller has sold
2008-05-29 19:20:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: charge on up to 0
2008-05-29 19:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK
2008-05-29 19:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good
2008-05-29 19:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this occurring, what would be the expectation moving forward?
2008-05-29 19:21:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: bounce back down off 0
2008-05-29 19:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...that would be the near term expectation...then what?
2008-05-29 19:22:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Don't know, that is why I am here
2008-05-29 19:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, you do
2008-05-29 19:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't accept "don't know" answers
2008-05-29 19:22:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: OK, thinking
2008-05-29 19:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (tough love)
2008-05-29 19:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone can chime in - this is a discussion
2008-05-29 19:23:50 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: do you expect to press the gas pedal on this thing?
2008-05-29 19:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do you?
2008-05-29 19:24:04 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: yes
2008-05-29 19:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why?
2008-05-29 19:24:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well...I Guess I don't have opinion. That why I am 95% cash
2008-05-29 19:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the answer should be within the context of what you've observed with the MCO
2008-05-29 19:24:41 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: because money seems to move from bond to stocks
2008-05-29 19:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and NOT based on fundamentals
2008-05-29 19:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good catch
2008-05-29 19:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-05-29 19:25:17 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: small cap hold up extremely well
2008-05-29 19:25:27 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: seems to be enough liquidity
2008-05-29 19:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK - good
2008-05-29 19:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as an outside indicator, how do we know that liquidity is plentiful?
2008-05-29 19:26:02 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: fib, you noticed today the 10 year note yield above 4% - want to get your take on that
2008-05-29 19:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does it concern you?
2008-05-29 19:26:47 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: no. it seems to mean more confidence in economy longer term
2008-05-29 19:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed
2008-05-29 19:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interest rates would only move higher because of the anticipation of inflation
2008-05-29 19:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the only way an economy "inflates" is that it must expand
2008-05-29 19:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else might this tell us? (various answers to this last question)
2008-05-29 19:28:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Sell bonds to buy cheap oil
2008-05-29 19:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..
2008-05-29 19:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that might be an option
2008-05-29 19:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other hand
2008-05-29 19:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe those who have been deemed as "speculators" decided to take an exit based on the report heard today about the Government "investigating" the futures action
2008-05-29 19:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's look it in another way
2008-05-29 19:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is the yield curve showing inversion?
2008-05-29 19:30:07 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: did they not also raise margin requirements on oil traders
2008-05-29 19:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there was talk of that
2008-05-29 19:30:33 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i think effective today's close
2008-05-29 19:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though I don't know if anything has been done
2008-05-29 19:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...that would be a good reason
2008-05-29 19:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we do know that this kind of thing only happens at or near tops
2008-05-29 19:31:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Scary reversal in oil today
2008-05-29 19:31:16 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes a real bad sign
2008-05-29 19:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: scary?
2008-05-29 19:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about "expected"?
2008-05-29 19:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did we not discuss this last week...that the oil market smelled?
2008-05-29 19:31:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes expected, still scary if you own oil
2008-05-29 19:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was ONLY down $4.00
2008-05-29 19:32:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: more like 4.60 I think
2008-05-29 19:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, technically, if you did own oil, you were foolish to do so
2008-05-29 19:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: semantics
2008-05-29 19:32:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no, just own cash
2008-05-29 19:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did we not discuss in the last week or so about how we've been hearing the media pump this market up as well?
2008-05-29 19:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: media commercials abound
2008-05-29 19:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we even briefly touched on the "off set" idea - that we might be in February gold area
2008-05-29 19:33:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, been running segments on news every day about high fuel costs
2008-05-29 19:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you believe it was people cutting back on fuel that made today's inventory numbers surprising, or was it the constant stream of badgering about the high cost of fuel that made people cut back?
2008-05-29 19:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it people buying stocks that make prices go up, or is it prices moving up that make people buy?
2008-05-29 19:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all the same thing
2008-05-29 19:35:25 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: the latter
2008-05-29 19:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all emotional manipulation
2008-05-29 19:36:13 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: reaching feverish pitch
2008-05-29 19:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ring the bell, and the animal finds the reward or "adjusts"
2008-05-29 19:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to interest rates
2008-05-29 19:36:46 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: so, this is it? you think oil topped short-term?
2008-05-29 19:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: inverted yield curve or normalized?
2008-05-29 19:37:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: normalized
2008-05-29 19:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as far as oil is concerned, I still respect the off set until proven otherwise
2008-05-29 19:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK
2008-05-29 19:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: FED Funds is at what right now? 2%?
2008-05-29 19:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 2 year note?
2008-05-29 19:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I saw 2.6% this morning - don't know what it closed at
2008-05-29 19:38:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 2.08%
2008-05-29 19:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 2 year?
2008-05-29 19:38:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no FF
2008-05-29 19:39:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I looked at link you gave us some months back
2008-05-29 19:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2 year at 2.67%
2008-05-29 19:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now....let's remember back to March
2008-05-29 19:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things we talked about was that in order for the FED to finish the work started, it needed to get the FED Funds rate below that of the 2 year yield
2008-05-29 19:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they accomplished this in April
2008-05-29 19:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, if I remember correctly, the 2 year was at 2.25% which was the same as the FF rate
2008-05-29 19:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we had the 1/4% cut
2008-05-29 19:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that cut now righted the yield curve in total
2008-05-29 19:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since that time, the 2 year note has expanded the difference between these two yield quotes
2008-05-29 19:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since excess liquidity is the difference between short term and longer term rates
2008-05-29 19:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this acts as a pump...the spigot is now wide open
2008-05-29 19:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the credit crisis is behind us...we are now stabilized
2008-05-29 19:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this was suggested last month when the MCSUM having moved above its declining tops line
2008-05-29 19:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the longer the FED doesn't raise rates here, and the yields continue to move higher, and remain normalized, any excess liquidity from this same spread will eventually have to find its way into equities
2008-05-29 19:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this, in essence, was the tsunami building at the beginning of this month
2008-05-29 19:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which has yet move ashore (in totality)
2008-05-29 19:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is also the reason why the market can't build a trend to the downside
2008-05-29 19:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "basketball in the deep end of the pool" analogy
2008-05-29 19:45:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, you say don't send money to Fib, .... mortgage farm and buy long instead
2008-05-29 19:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can keep the ball down below the water line IF you apply pressure, but once this pressure is released, it moves back above this same water line
2008-05-29 19:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...I know you're being cheeky here TM, but we must remain disciplined and reasonable
2008-05-29 19:46:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Ball may be at water line now
2008-05-29 19:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still have several things that need to be done to be called in the clear
2008-05-29 19:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the downward pressure was released...and the ball popped up
2008-05-29 19:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this "pressure" would be the "oversold" MCO extremes that took place over the last week or so
2008-05-29 19:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "too far, too fast" and nothing behind it to "hold it down"
2008-05-29 19:47:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I agree, ball recently rose least some
2008-05-29 19:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so moving above this blip resistance area suggests that the willing bears have finished their work for now
2008-05-29 19:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now, we would expect a divergent retest
2008-05-29 19:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time
2008-05-29 19:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the pressure is definitely on for the bears to perform as this interest rate differential continues to build
2008-05-29 19:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this will become harder and harder to keep prices down....
2008-05-29 19:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep it simple ladies and gents
2008-05-29 19:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and remember that technical analysis is the best way to cheat fundamentals
2008-05-29 19:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all works together
2008-05-29 19:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so while others continue to scratch their heads in wonderment
2008-05-29 19:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the smarter student is not allowing these same distractions impede on what the market internals are saying will eventually be the outcome
2008-05-29 19:51:52 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: fib, how the analysis of bond fits in your overall analysis
2008-05-29 19:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moves from gold to commodities to bonds to then to stocks
2008-05-29 19:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it doesn't move backwards (broadly speaking)
2008-05-29 19:52:35 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: is this something look at first to see the overall liquidity picture and then mco? Thanks
2008-05-29 19:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it moves from the least risky to the most risky dependent on availability of this same capital
2008-05-29 19:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that gold is a "bypass" on the river
2008-05-29 19:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the river get too high, the bypass is opened to relieve the pressure off the levees
2008-05-29 19:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once relieved, it's then able to rejoin this same river "down stream" where it tends to be more "broad"
2008-05-29 19:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so gold only moves higher in price because everything else is already "high enough"
2008-05-29 19:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once things subside, then it fills up other areas as it makes its way (trickle) down to its ultimate destination (the consumer itself)
2008-05-29 19:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's always order to what maybe considered chaotic
2008-05-29 19:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK - philosophical lesson over
2008-05-29 19:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's get to todays data
2008-05-29 19:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as was the expectation on Tuesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO has not only moved to or towards its zero line, but has not moved back above it
2008-05-29 20:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also see that the components are also back above their zero line, and generated a crossover buy signal today
2008-05-29 20:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this has now turned the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM higher after finding support at the +100 level
2008-05-29 20:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, the bulls have once again regained total control of the action
2008-05-29 20:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a couple of things here
2008-05-29 20:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the MCO having been above the zero line for such a long period of time, this would suggest that the bulls have better control of the situation than what is probably understood
2008-05-29 20:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this kind of action works both ways
2008-05-29 20:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the bears only having been able to slam the market lower fast and hard
2008-05-29 20:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and NOT being able to provide a complex pattern below the MCO zero line
2008-05-29 20:04:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You know, this has been a pretty short stint below 0 for MCO? So bears take another shot?
2008-05-29 20:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is highly bullish...just as it would be if the MCO were below the zero line for a long period of time and we would see a spike higher above zero and not being able to hold above it
2008-05-29 20:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another shot would be anticipated...yes TM
2008-05-29 20:05:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bear
2008-05-29 20:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like we talked about on Tuesday, it's usually a 2 week "ordeal" during correctional periods
2008-05-29 20:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not so fast
2008-05-29 20:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're over reaching your conclusion here
2008-05-29 20:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just because of retest is anticipated, doesn't mean we will, nor does it suggest that a tradable retest is in the cards either
2008-05-29 20:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like cycles
2008-05-29 20:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: prices can either move down INTO, or OUT OF these same nesting lows
2008-05-29 20:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the trump card currently is the building level of liquidity here
2008-05-29 20:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is something that must be kept in mind
2008-05-29 20:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for it is this liquidity level that is fighting off any kind of real decline in which a trend can develop to the downside
2008-05-29 20:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words, it could be a one day affair - or - breadth could weaken, but not enough for price to follow
2008-05-29 20:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now if you listen to other analysts right now, many have been looking for prices to continue lower, but this hasn't happened
2008-05-29 20:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and by cursory review of a message board in which we all know and love, it's even gotten to a point in which those who believe that lower prices are ahead are really pushing the limit on why they believe this will happen
2008-05-29 20:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a single stock, for example
2008-05-29 20:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not so surprising really since there's nothing else but the price of gas to talk about and hang ones paws on, is there?
2008-05-29 20:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if oil has topped
2008-05-29 20:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I guess one could turn to politics (which has already started by the small amount of posts I've read)
2008-05-29 20:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO has fully snapped back to its zero line
2008-05-29 20:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this presents a near term problem
2008-05-29 20:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the CO only data taking the lead, this would also suggest that the interest rate sensitive issues are falling back
2008-05-29 20:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would make some sense with interest rates rising
2008-05-29 20:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other hand, utilities are moving strongly higher
2008-05-29 20:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so there's a bit of indecision going on right now
2008-05-29 20:25:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looks like MR close on NYSE too
2008-05-29 20:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, the expectation of a pause near term is indicated
2008-05-29 20:26:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, suggest tomorrow down NYA close
2008-05-29 20:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there a trend here?
2008-05-29 20:26:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Been pretty good up trend last two months
2008-05-29 20:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these range bars of short term "trend" indicators
2008-05-29 20:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in which direction?
2008-05-29 20:27:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: up
2008-05-29 20:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the range today was either part of this trend or counter trend?
2008-05-29 20:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was in the direction of the trend...right?
2008-05-29 20:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but here's the problem
2008-05-29 20:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this indicator works best within trending price moves
2008-05-29 20:28:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You would not call the last two months a trend?
2008-05-29 20:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: prior to Tuesday's bottom, the "trend" was lower?
2008-05-29 20:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: internally, yes
2008-05-29 20:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but today's bar did not occur during this same trending price sequence
2008-05-29 20:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today's bar occurred as part of a reflex after an exhaustion
2008-05-29 20:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making the predictability of such an event questionable
2008-05-29 20:30:39 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What's MR?
2008-05-29 20:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like last Thursday inside range
2008-05-29 20:30:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: got it, thanks
2008-05-29 20:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mid range close
2008-05-29 20:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (Mark loves this indicator)
2008-05-29 20:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, with that said
2008-05-29 20:31:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What indicator?
2008-05-29 20:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the expectation that we should see some weakness near term...because...
2008-05-29 20:31:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Mid range close....indicator
2008-05-29 20:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO is above its zero line (snapback) and the composite breadth MCO is at its zero line (repel), it may turn out to be quite predictive
2008-05-29 20:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it would be based more on the internals trend, and not that of the price trend
2008-05-29 20:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: DD -
2008-05-29 20:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: staying with the composite, we also note that unlike the CO only data, the components here have not provided us with a crossover buy signal as yet
2008-05-29 20:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should be on guard for some sort of back and fill on Friday...choppiness
2008-05-29 20:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which may include a divergent retest
2008-05-29 20:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seasonality wise, probably not as the last day of the month is usually firm
2008-05-29 20:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but maybe sometime next week...culminating next Friday (which also happens to be the jobs numbers)
2008-05-29 20:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have to be aware that it's very likely that we're going to see further pullback on the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM to or towards its zero line during this same time
2008-05-29 20:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, the bulls have to prove their readiness to bogey
2008-05-29 20:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and knowing that the worse that the bears have to offer is probably behind us for now (because of our moving above blip resistance)
2008-05-29 20:37:59 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: fib i think its possible the composite does something similar to 2003
2008-05-29 20:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if you look at the price pattern from an Elliott perspective, one would have to question whether we're going to be able to remain in and around these levels based on pattern structure
2008-05-29 20:38:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Why the MCSUM go back to 0?
2008-05-29 20:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes RF, all the ingredients are here for a near repeat of 2003
2008-05-29 20:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing missing is the level of anxiety (which shouldn't be repeated because of the degree of trend)
2008-05-29 20:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM - to take a pause
2008-05-29 20:39:13 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: the mco stayed above its zero line for over 3 months
2008-05-29 20:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to test balance support
2008-05-29 20:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct...and this suggest good strength of the bulls
2008-05-29 20:39:55 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: and there was a sharp correction in spring 2003 that looks similar to whats happening now
2008-05-29 20:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the bears were only able to move short and sweet below this same zero line without any complexity
2008-05-29 20:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they have now lost this same momentum - they have to now regroup
2008-05-29 20:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like an ambush with very little to show with it in the count of those injured or killed
2008-05-29 20:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO continues to show nice strength right now
2008-05-29 20:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and has moved back above its zero line
2008-05-29 20:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we look at the components, only the 10% is back above zero, while the 5% remains in negative territory
2008-05-29 20:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...correction
2008-05-29 20:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better strength with the NDX breadth MCO and its components where we're back to a buy signal
2008-05-29 20:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2008-05-29 20:43:50 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: not looking to exit anymore, right?
2008-05-29 20:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have, so far, found support where the bulls wanted to see...right at the +250 level
2008-05-29 20:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm impressed - I would continue to hold
2008-05-29 20:44:23 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: OK. Thanks
2008-05-29 20:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe things are coming together as would be expected
2008-05-29 20:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that last weeks decline was a shake out, but we still can't rule out another probe lower
2008-05-29 20:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this respect, so far, sitting on your hands and not panicking seems to have been the best idea
2008-05-29 20:46:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Maybe not most lucrative
2008-05-29 20:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have a buy signal on the SPX MCO and its components
2008-05-29 20:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all depends on your allocation TM
2008-05-29 20:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example, ST was 50/50 NDX and SPX
2008-05-29 20:46:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: SPX charts a thing a beauty....
2008-05-29 20:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not much of a loss on the NDX from its highs
2008-05-29 20:47:23 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I don't like the way the ndx looks
2008-05-29 20:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the SPX is within - what? 2% of its high?
2008-05-29 20:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shake outs happen
2008-05-29 20:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are needed
2008-05-29 20:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are healthy
2008-05-29 20:47:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I you were a bear, what would you like about the SPX chart page?
2008-05-29 20:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the page? or the chart pattern?
2008-05-29 20:48:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: all the DP spx charts
2008-05-29 20:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as an analyst, the charts are currently bullish
2008-05-29 20:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM is above its zero line
2008-05-29 20:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: starting to curl higher ABOVE its zero line
2008-05-29 20:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: buy signals generated on the short term
2008-05-29 20:49:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: sort of full tilt boogie bullish
2008-05-29 20:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be a false start - but it really all depends on your time horizons
2008-05-29 20:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me suggest a strategy
2008-05-29 20:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wait for new highs on the MCSUM and price and then open or add to your position
2008-05-29 20:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if price moves higher without the MCSUM...hold
2008-05-29 20:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the MCSUM moves higher before a little more aggressive
2008-05-29 20:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let the market PROVE itself and keep your options open
2008-05-29 20:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have a plan
2008-05-29 20:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing we do know right now is that even if we fail here, the downside risk is highly limited
2008-05-29 20:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially if the Open 10's are still in the "oversold" area
2008-05-29 20:52:17 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: 1.11
2008-05-29 20:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is your floor...(DD - this is what is meant as a floor)
2008-05-29 20:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember we talked about this last Thursday, and except for Friday, there's been very little movement below the floor of the previous consolidation zone
2008-05-29 20:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it internal support
2008-05-29 20:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a wall that needs more energy to break through
2008-05-29 20:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX breadth MCO is now back to its zero line
2008-05-29 20:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we're evened up here
2008-05-29 20:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the OEX breadth MCSUM is stalling right above its zero line
2008-05-29 20:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we're basically evened up here too
2008-05-29 20:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who's going to take control?
2008-05-29 20:55:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Crossover buy components
2008-05-29 20:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why its so tough to trade indecision patterns
2008-05-29 20:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a slight one, yes...and the components are in sync with the MCO
2008-05-29 20:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is more things to like about the action here than to be "afraid of"
2008-05-29 20:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the internals are holding quite well here
2008-05-29 20:56:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MCSUM above 0
2008-05-29 20:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but AT zero
2008-05-29 20:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whichever direction you want to trade
2008-05-29 20:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you need to go with the majority
2008-05-29 20:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being close to the zero line shows no majority - no control - indecision
2008-05-29 20:57:56 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Good for credit spreads
2008-05-29 20:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-05-29 20:58:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: +62 = 0 then?
2008-05-29 20:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we kind of touched on that earlier
2008-05-29 20:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...part of a snapback to or towards zero TM
2008-05-29 20:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not enough for "control"
2008-05-29 20:58:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: got it
2008-05-29 20:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the pattern could still move closer to zero
2008-05-29 20:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so what we want to see (for the upside) is for the MCSUM to make a higher high
2008-05-29 20:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like we've been looking for since the March lows
2008-05-29 20:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and every time a higher high was seen
2008-05-29 20:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you saw prices follow
2008-05-29 20:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: patience
2008-05-29 20:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's good to anticipate
2008-05-29 21:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but anticipation can be a losing proposition
2008-05-29 21:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: time could kill you
2008-05-29 21:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it only matters to get in once you have confirmation that you can go even further
2008-05-29 21:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "LA to NY train" analogy
2008-05-29 21:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who says you have to play the market each and every day?
2008-05-29 21:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the best decisions I've made over the years are the ones that I never made
2008-05-29 21:01:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: how about that double top of last couple months....something for bears to give hope
2008-05-29 21:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that was part of another time and place and where "hope" doesn't apply
2008-05-29 21:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are there for reference - for comparisons between now and then
2008-05-29 21:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since the pattern was not able to move above it recently
2008-05-29 21:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it remains resistance for the bulls...and not so much fuel for the bears
2008-05-29 21:02:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: The road " not traveled "
2008-05-29 21:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this kind of fuel would only come when and if the MCSUM moves back below the zero line
2008-05-29 21:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, look at every MCSUM sequence as a new road traveled
2008-05-29 21:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what done
2008-05-29 21:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like playing baseball
2008-05-29 21:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you continue to worry that you haven't got on base, you're probably not going to get on base
2008-05-29 21:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as you would be trying to hard to do so and not letting things happen
2008-05-29 21:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you go for
2008-05-29 21:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes you get a double out of it...but you must make contact first
2008-05-29 21:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: patience
2008-05-29 21:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow breadth MCO remains underwater as does its components
2008-05-29 21:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this would be another reason why we get some sort of back and fill here
2008-05-29 21:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the better the intra market sync, the easier the directional move
2008-05-29 21:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back above the zero line on the MID breadth MCO
2008-05-29 21:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once again the MID breadth MCSUM is finding support at the +250 level
2008-05-29 21:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if this is a snapback to what was previous bear market "overhead resistance", what we want to eventually see to confirm this is a move back above the +500 level
2008-05-29 21:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of the +250 level as trendline resistance violated and being retested
2008-05-29 21:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we see this all the time
2008-05-29 21:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's an expectation
2008-05-29 21:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if what's expected happens, then you can add to what should be expected later on
2008-05-29 21:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: building blocks
2008-05-29 21:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let it happen
2008-05-29 21:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and at the same time
2008-05-29 21:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it doesn't happen, then you will be able to react accordingly
2008-05-29 21:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not emotionally..but what the market tells YOU what the best course of action is
2008-05-29 21:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyday is hard work
2008-05-29 21:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being prepared is most important
2008-05-29 21:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you think or believe is unimportant
2008-05-29 21:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you hear others think or believe is unimportant
2008-05-29 21:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing that matters is money flow
2008-05-29 21:11:03 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: does re-test of 250 level in MCSUM and bounce back has minimum expectation for price to test the old high?
2008-05-29 21:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it certainly could...and would be part of the momentum generated by the energy created prior
2008-05-29 21:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the MCSUM doesn't make a new high in concert
2008-05-29 21:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would then have bear divergence - and THEN you can have the expectation of a more pronounced correctional period
2008-05-29 21:12:46 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: OK. Thanks!
2008-05-29 21:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why I just didn't say - SELL! - when thing abruptly fell apart last week
2008-05-29 21:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have to believe in your indicators - and NOT emotionalism
2008-05-29 21:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you question - even for a moment - what your indicators are showing you, it would be better served to trash them as you will not be as successful as you believe you can be
2008-05-29 21:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this will then spiral into making bad decisions
2008-05-29 21:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's rare when I have a stop hit
2008-05-29 21:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I attempt to get so many things in my corner before making a trade that any stops provided are rarely hit
2008-05-29 21:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I rather be late to the party than be the first one (which is rather awkward anyway)
2008-05-29 21:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still seeing continued good strength coming into the SML breadth MCO
2008-05-29 21:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now we're about to fully challenge the MCSUM zero line
2008-05-29 21:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...on the SML price chart, we can say we have a mid range close
2008-05-29 21:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making new closing highs here is the difference....with the new highs creating "trend development"
2008-05-29 21:18:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no washout here
2008-05-29 21:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...and if the MCSUM moves to new highs here, this would be a nice area to probe
2008-05-29 21:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...the only reason why the SML wasn't able to hold at its highs was because it didn't have the breadth trends behind it
2008-05-29 21:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCO is at a lower level, as well as the MCSUM
2008-05-29 21:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "we need more power captain or I won't be able to hold her!"
2008-05-29 21:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small buy signal as well on the TM breadth MCO and its components
2008-05-29 21:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking quickly at the volume data, and you'll see that many of the NYSE related volume MCO's are still below their zero lines
2008-05-29 21:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...there's a cautionary flag there too
2008-05-29 21:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just try not to be a hero here
2008-05-29 21:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's you against the market
2008-05-29 21:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep your ego of being the "first one" in or out of it
2008-05-29 21:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are now basically neutral
2008-05-29 21:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are flat (except for the Dow which bounced off "oversold" yesterday
2008-05-29 21:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .99
2008-05-29 21:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.11
2008-05-29 21:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .74
2008-05-29 21:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .91
2008-05-29 21:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still neutral
2008-05-29 21:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...something is brewing again under the surface
2008-05-29 21:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe if oil has topped....???? (shrug)
2008-05-29 21:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .81
2008-05-29 21:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.00
2008-05-29 21:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, really, no changes since Tuesday on the Open 10's
2008-05-29 21:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this allows prices to remain buoyant
2008-05-29 21:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we want to see is simple
2008-05-29 21:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: soft opens...rallies into the close, and watch breadth plurality
2008-05-29 21:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and keep in the back of your head the position of the longer term A/D lines
2008-05-29 21:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-05-29 21:28:04 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: what if we break the downtrend line in the longer term A/D line. what does that imply?
2008-05-29 21:28:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Reminds me of cartoon of two buzzards siting in tree, looking over the landscape. One buzzard says to other, "patience heck".
2008-05-29 21:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know what's going to fun to watch?
2008-05-29 21:28:19 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: can u update the ra a/d lines this weekend plz
2008-05-29 21:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is if we rally from here, how many are going to watch from the sidelines in fear of going in at the top
2008-05-29 21:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will show the RA this weekend...did you see last weeks?
2008-05-29 21:29:02 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes
2008-05-29 21:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ST - the downtrend line to the upside?
2008-05-29 21:29:23 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: are we there?
2008-05-29 21:29:44 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: yes
2008-05-29 21:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then the next objective of an upside breakout would be to test the all time highs
2008-05-29 21:29:56 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: I think we need some 1500 number to break it
2008-05-29 21:29:58 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: did we breakout?
2008-05-29 21:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after a possible snapback first
2008-05-29 21:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not yet
2008-05-29 21:30:08 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: not yet
2008-05-29 21:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we did perceptively
2008-05-29 21:30:21 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: we may meet resistance there once again
2008-05-29 21:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but got knocked on the noggin
2008-05-29 21:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we may
2008-05-29 21:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one said it was going to be easy
2008-05-29 21:30:38 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: but can the open 10 provide some clue?
2008-05-29 21:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...
2008-05-29 21:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the important thing here is not that resistance line right now
2008-05-29 21:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the most important thing right now is that the A/D line holds above support of its EMA's
2008-05-29 21:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which it's doing quite nicely
2008-05-29 21:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reason is
2008-05-29 21:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have tops beneath tops
2008-05-29 21:31:39 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: we are in bullish configuration i believe
2008-05-29 21:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we're able to construct a foundation in which we can have enough power to break above this same wall, without this foundation, we just won't do it
2008-05-29 21:32:13 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: fib, the NYUD has broke its down trend line
2008-05-29 21:32:35 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: do you see it before it could suggest the break of the A/D itself?
2008-05-29 21:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one sec
2008-05-29 21:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes - bullish configuration - confirmed -
2008-05-29 21:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and bouncing off the 10% Trend
2008-05-29 21:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: higher high...and we should break above trendline resistance
2008-05-29 21:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we now have the power to do so
2008-05-29 21:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NYUD didn't have broad enough participation to break resistance
2008-05-29 21:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: A/D first...U/D second
2008-05-29 21:35:33 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: OK. got it. thanks
2008-05-29 21:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to short here
2008-05-29 21:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not so hard to look for a long though
2008-05-29 21:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me, I hope for a couple more days of churn
2008-05-29 21:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I want a solid foundation
2008-05-29 21:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I want structure
2008-05-29 21:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I want....texture
2008-05-29 21:36:28 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: texture!
2008-05-29 21:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to get going
2008-05-29 21:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2008-05-29 21:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat on Tuesday
2008-05-29 21:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-05-29 21:36:51 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: Thanks fib. good night
2008-05-29 21:36:58 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: good night

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