All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,491
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-05-27 19:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-05-27 19:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-05-27 19:02:42 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Doing great, how are you?
2008-05-27 19:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rushing around like usual
2008-05-27 19:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there just isn't enough hours in a day these days
2008-05-27 19:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise...I'm fine and dandy!
2008-05-27 19:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we delve into things??
2008-05-27 19:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Oh...before I forget...I'm going to take a long vacation this year...last week of June until mid July...so there will not be any sessions during this time
2008-05-27 19:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and boy...I'm really looking forward to it
2008-05-27 19:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see how we finished today...
2008-05-27 19:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: up...but not broad based
2008-05-27 19:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like a dead cat bounce here
2008-05-27 19:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breadth 2:1 - not bad
2008-05-27 19:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a time to be a bull hero right now...
2008-05-27 19:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2008-05-27 19:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today
2008-05-27 19:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but remains below the "blip resistance" area created last Thursday
2008-05-27 19:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today's bounce was more of a technical relief rally while the 5% component attempts it obligatory snap back to or towards its zero line
2008-05-27 19:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with today's lows on the NYA testing price pattern support and bouncing higher
2008-05-27 19:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to unwind from the +250 resistance area
2008-05-27 19:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but remains in a rising bottoms configuration
2008-05-27 19:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking ruler to monitor
2008-05-27 19:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have plenty of room until we challenge this same line of support - around the -300 area
2008-05-27 19:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first level of probable support will come in at around the zero line
2008-05-27 19:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and depending on the MCSUM structure as we move to this same area, this should provide the necessary substance we're looking for to make a better intermediate call within this shorter term soft period
2008-05-27 19:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also bounced higher today
2008-05-27 19:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this has allowed the 10% component to oblige us with a snapback to its zero line
2008-05-27 19:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the NYSE breadth MCSUM still nicely above its zero line with a reading of +370, this should keep the overall price pattern structure more choppy than that of any trending move to the downside
2008-05-27 19:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO snapped back up to its zero line today
2008-05-27 19:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM still below its zero line, we should continue to see better internal action to any upside buy periods over the next week or so
2008-05-27 19:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the bar chart of the NASDAQ
2008-05-27 19:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with our taking out the previous closing highs of Thursday and Friday today, we should see some continued follow through action in this upward direction tomorrow
2008-05-27 19:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe back up to the 2500/2510 level where some resistance should be seen
2008-05-27 19:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO retraced much of its move below the zero line today
2008-05-27 19:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this has slowed the rate of descent on the NDX breadth MCSUM at around the +250 level
2008-05-27 19:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: turning up from this level would initially be one of a momentum move that we know to expect right after the engines "shut down"
2008-05-27 19:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where quite a bit of work now needs to be done before we can go with the idea that another potential shake the tree moment might be behind us
2008-05-27 19:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this doesn't happen, the rising bottoms line on the NDX breadth MCSUM comes in at around the -200 area, so this might be the target to look for IF the market is just taking a simple "pause to refresh"
2008-05-27 19:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO also moved higher today, but still remains below "blip" resistance
2008-05-27 19:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is happening while the 5% component makes a snapback attempt up to its zero line
2008-05-27 19:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, the market remains on a sell signal, but buyers were concentrating in the secondary issues
2008-05-27 19:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after being "oversold" on Friday, the OEX breadth MCO reversed direction today
2008-05-27 19:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but remains below its own "blip" resistance point
2008-05-27 19:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for both the bulls and bears, this is an important level of testing
2008-05-27 19:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls would want these blip areas to be violated which would suggest that much of the "willing" sellers have finished their work
2008-05-27 19:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the bears would rather see more movement below this same level as to keep the market under pressure
2008-05-27 19:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of situation with the Dow McClellan's
2008-05-27 19:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a close above last Thursday's MCO high suggesting that willing sellers have exhausted themselves as well
2008-05-27 19:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so..something to watch for between now and Thursday
2008-05-27 19:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: inside range day on the MID which would suggest an up close tomorrow
2008-05-27 19:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the 10% component of the MID breadth MCO has finished its work in snapping back to zero
2008-05-27 19:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: should be an interesting, if not choppy day coming up
2008-05-27 19:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice strength today on the SML breadth MCO being the only index to move above the zero line today
2008-05-27 19:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and taking out its blip resistance, and giving a "small" crossover buy signal
2008-05-27 19:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCSUM remains in an uptrend and doesn't seem to want to break this same trend
2008-05-27 19:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, todays move higher on the SML breadth MCSUM is a bounce off the accelerated rising bottoms line from the divergent March bottoms
2008-05-27 19:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...
2008-05-27 19:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also of note on the SML bar chart is how the pattern reversed off support of what was previous overhead resistance on Friday
2008-05-27 19:35:19 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: Question
2008-05-27 19:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with both the SML breadth MCO and MCSUM at or near their zero line right now, it's anyones ball game near term
2008-05-27 19:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir..
2008-05-27 19:35:49 [Message] kaiser -> Main Room: I noticed the SPX volume MCSUM is about to cross zero into negative..that can be accompanied by large price moves-correct ?
2008-05-27 19:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can be...
2008-05-27 19:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the context here
2008-05-27 19:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that volume can be...ahhh...suspicious at times because we don't exactly know where that volume is being created
2008-05-27 19:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example
2008-05-27 19:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be a handful of issues that are putting the thumb on the scale and not broadly based
2008-05-27 19:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we need to look at how broad an advance or decline is first and THEN check out the accompanied volume that goes with it
2008-05-27 19:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all
2008-05-27 19:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we don't want to be snookered into thinking that 10 highly weighted issues that can move an index's price movement be representative of the whole pie
2008-05-27 19:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we want to carefully watch how breadth and volume interact with each other
2008-05-27 19:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why we would prefer to see volume either in sync with breadth OR a bit ahead of it
2008-05-27 19:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when I hit the volume data I'll try to tie up the loose ends in this regard
2008-05-27 19:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good question...
2008-05-27 19:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM breadth MCO also moved higher today, while its components snapped back to their zero line
2008-05-27 19:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's call today a simple "reflex"
2008-05-27 19:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not enough to call a price low, and not enough to suggest any further near term follow through to last weeks shake out
2008-05-27 19:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hopefully tomorrow will give us a better feel of what to expect moving into the end of the month
2008-05-27 19:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE volume MCO also bounced higher today
2008-05-27 19:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like its breadth cousin, remains below blip resistance
2008-05-27 19:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point though...volume and breadth are definitely in sync with each other
2008-05-27 19:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making todays move more consistent to a simple reflex
2008-05-27 19:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of situation with the composite
2008-05-27 19:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just not enough information as yet to go either way here
2008-05-27 19:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ volume MCO also snapped back to its zero line today
2008-05-27 19:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we have continuity here too
2008-05-27 19:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2008-05-27 19:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in which may help in answering kaiser's question
2008-05-27 19:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll note that the volume MCSUM is still well above its zero line, while the breadth side remains below this same demarcation line
2008-05-27 19:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that those issues that are being bought in this index are those of "heavyweights' - the cream - and has not so much spread out to the rest of the secondaries
2008-05-27 19:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would guess some of these issues would be those we discussed last week - AAPL, RIMM, and others
2008-05-27 19:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since these issues are also larger weights on the index in total, this is why we're seeing some nice double digit moves in the NASDAQ and NDX - both up and down
2008-05-27 19:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: snapback to the zero line on the NDX volume MCO and leading the breadth side
2008-05-27 19:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a small crossover buy today on the components
2008-05-27 19:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I would rather view this action as a simple "kiss back" for now until proven otherwise
2008-05-27 19:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, of note here is how the 5% component was able to find support at its zero line twice over the last week
2008-05-27 19:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, it's probably just as wise to remain on ones hands until something more definitive takes place
2008-05-27 19:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the really difficult thing to do in this area of analysis is to not have "big price moves" cloud your technical judgment of what's really going on beneath the surface
2008-05-27 19:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very easy to jump on a train when you believe it's moving in one direction
2008-05-27 19:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but every now and then there are detours - "rail switches" - that make you believe you're heading one way, but in reality, your actually taking an alternate route to the same destination
2008-05-27 19:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line for now...there hasn't been anything to "prove otherwise" that what we're seeing (and feeling) here is nothing more than a well deserved pause in the pattern
2008-05-27 19:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example
2008-05-27 19:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you would think that with the Dow being down some 500 points in 3 days that we have technical damage because of it
2008-05-27 19:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in some respects, you would be right
2008-05-27 19:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but while the Dow has lost this kind of value, what exactly has the broader market done in relation to this same shake out?
2008-05-27 19:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have their price pattern structures been violated?
2008-05-27 19:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and better still
2008-05-27 19:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: has the intermediate trend of breadth violated any important lines of support?
2008-05-27 19:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...price could correct deeper from here
2008-05-27 19:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in the overall context, if the MCSUM rising bottoms lines continue to hold, this would be another divergent structure that would be developing in this same process
2008-05-27 19:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm always cautious of price advances and declines that are accompanied by news events
2008-05-27 19:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is NOT how trends develop....they are not based on what is "already known"
2008-05-27 19:57:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What news event? Fed minutes?
2008-05-27 19:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about the price of gas?
2008-05-27 19:58:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: not very new news
2008-05-27 19:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about having the news presenting a score card each and every day for the last two months on what the price is?
2008-05-27 19:59:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You need a new news station
2008-05-27 19:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the market has seemed to forget all about what is "already known"
2008-05-27 19:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything, these daily digests of gas prices is more consistent to major tops
2008-05-27 19:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: examples...gold, silver, and oil itself
2008-05-27 20:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything that directly "speaks to the public"
2008-05-27 20:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone watch or listen to financial news channels lately?
2008-05-27 20:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for if you do, you will notice a lot of new commercials now in the oil area - especially in the futures area
2008-05-27 20:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I don't have to tell you about gold...and the TV commercial where you can "mail in your jewelry" and they will mail you back a check!
2008-05-27 20:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I love the one young lady who says: "I just turned in my wedding ring from my FIRST marriage and got $500!!"
2008-05-27 20:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too funny
2008-05-27 20:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you know...with all of the current gold hype, we are NOWHERE near the media hype that was around in 1979
2008-05-27 20:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not even close
2008-05-27 20:03:29 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: she'd make a fortune if she had 10 marriages
2008-05-27 20:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-05-27 20:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like - all she got out of the marriage was this lousy ring...but NOW it's worth something
2008-05-27 20:04:18 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: its a classic
2008-05-27 20:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really is..
2008-05-27 20:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now we come to the SPX volume data
2008-05-27 20:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like kaiser shared earlier, the SPX volume MCSUM is now back to its zero line
2008-05-27 20:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now here...with volume a bit below where the breadth MCSUM is, this would suggest that the volume coming into and out of the SPX has been not only consistent, but broadly based
2008-05-27 20:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more so, than let's say, the NASDAQ where the majority of issues still remain below their zero line
2008-05-27 20:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the theory here for the SPX is...fund buying would be one way where this consistency can be maintained
2008-05-27 20:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not so much any money coming in from the "investing public"
2008-05-27 20:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now the Dow volume data is a whole different kettle of fish in this relationship
2008-05-27 20:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the Dow volume MCO and MCSUM below their zero lines, much of the advance we've seen since the March lows has been very thin
2008-05-27 20:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why, during the last weeks decline, when these same issues who were holding the Dow up, they got caught up in the rip tide, and a larger percentage move to the downside was then seen
2008-05-27 20:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less, more technical external and internal damage that resulted from it
2008-05-27 20:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like any top
2008-05-27 20:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price patterns on indices don't top if there is more participants carrying the load
2008-05-27 20:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but as they continue to lose sponsorship, it makes those left responsible to handle this same load, more inclined to tire out much more quickly since they are picking up the slack
2008-05-27 20:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then you get a collapse
2008-05-27 20:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID volume data is about the same as the breadth side
2008-05-27 20:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would include the SML data which is looking surprisingly buoyant here
2008-05-27 20:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things we talked about over the last month of "waiting for a pause" that these time outs can serve the purpose of allowing intra market money to catch up with itself
2008-05-27 20:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...and in less than a weeks time...the high caps are showing a pull back in here, while the secondaries and small caps are using this same time to play this kind of catch up
2008-05-27 20:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to right the ship, as it were
2008-05-27 20:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could change tomorrow
2008-05-27 20:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if this continues
2008-05-27 20:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the secondaries and small caps finally show some better strength during this time of value issues taking a pause, this should then provide good "equilibrium" to this asset class
2008-05-27 20:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term...this would be very bullish behavior
2008-05-27 20:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as a technician, we still have to remember that we have a very solid divergent support below us from the March lows
2008-05-27 20:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until this is violated, we should remain stable...at worst - a continuing trading range
2008-05-27 20:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so while we trade over the next week or so, do keep an eye on the intermediate term picture as it relates to the bump and grinds of day to day action
2008-05-27 20:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: perspective here if VERY important with all of the "bad news" out there
2008-05-27 20:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is a normal phenomenon since we are ALWAYS in a bear market
2008-05-27 20:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM volume MCO also move higher today...remains below blip resistance...and the components are doing their normal tag play with their respective zero lines
2008-05-27 20:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so..call today a reflex
2008-05-27 20:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with no real information to work with short term
2008-05-27 20:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intermediate term, the bulls continue to remain (by in large) in control
2008-05-27 20:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the bears can muster up some follow through tomorrow, then we'll look for another 2-3 weeks of sloppy action
2008-05-27 20:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if the bulls follow through tomorrow, the last couple of days might be looked back on as another buy point (in which I would be surprised if this happened)
2008-05-27 20:22:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Which one?
2008-05-27 20:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (especially with the low extremes we saw on Friday...it was a near term back breaker)
2008-05-27 20:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bullish one
2008-05-27 20:23:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: tks
2008-05-27 20:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just trying to be fair to both sides here
2008-05-27 20:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in what is a near term no mans land
2008-05-27 20:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short term..we're on sell signals
2008-05-27 20:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intermediate term...we're on buy signals
2008-05-27 20:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...better put - intermediate term...the bulls still have control
2008-05-27 20:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it "looks" corrective
2008-05-27 20:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it "looks" like we're going to chop around here
2008-05-27 20:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and maybe until June 6th
2008-05-27 20:25:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What is up with June 6?
2008-05-27 20:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's 2 weeks
2008-05-27 20:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: patterns of digestion, with the MCO below the zero line, do tend to take about 2 weeks to clear up
2008-05-27 20:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are now "oversold"
2008-05-27 20:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are neutral to above zero
2008-05-27 20:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are now below their zero lines (finally), with the Dow VTO now approaching "oversold"
2008-05-27 20:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to short
2008-05-27 20:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dangerous to do so
2008-05-27 20:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bear market would not unwind this quickly
2008-05-27 20:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be more in the area of drip, drip, drip
2008-05-27 20:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a hemorrhage
2008-05-27 20:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.13
2008-05-27 20:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.11
2008-05-27 20:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to short
2008-05-27 20:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .52
2008-05-27 20:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .90
2008-05-27 20:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neutral
2008-05-27 20:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .66
2008-05-27 20:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.00
2008-05-27 20:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my gut tells me that if we do rally on Wednesday it will start slowly and increase into the close
2008-05-27 20:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Open 10's are not suggesting any continued selling near term
2008-05-27 20:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tough spot for both bulls and bears right now
2008-05-27 20:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the only ones who will be right are those who are always looking in one direction or the other
2008-05-27 20:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else is up?
2008-05-27 20:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how are you folks playing things right now?
2008-05-27 20:33:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: The ones that will be right are those that look in one direction or the other???? What does that mean? T
2008-05-27 20:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you think it means..?
2008-05-27 20:33:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Got me
2008-05-27 20:33:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Everybody right?
2008-05-27 20:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: read the sentence again...and don't forget the word "always"
2008-05-27 20:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you're always looking for the market to go lower, and it does, you will be right
2008-05-27 20:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you're always looking for the market to go higher, and it does, you will be right
2008-05-27 20:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but technically, we don't have a good near term forecast...it can go either way
2008-05-27 20:35:18 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: I came into today short commodities, feeling that would play out regardless of market direction
2008-05-27 20:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that would correct...one asset class doesn't really have one thing to do with the other
2008-05-27 20:36:01 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-05-27 20:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because each class receives its money different times
2008-05-27 20:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: current example
2008-05-27 20:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oil to stocks - especially the transports
2008-05-27 20:37:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: In answer to your question, I am in the cave but looking at the door
2008-05-27 20:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold to PM stocks
2008-05-27 20:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good...but is that protection necessary?
2008-05-27 20:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking for a barn maybe?
2008-05-27 20:37:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Mostly in cash
2008-05-27 20:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the best play
2008-05-27 20:38:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: hoping to spot a barn
2008-05-27 20:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "when in doubt, stay out" fits rather well right now
2008-05-27 20:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doesn't matter if you're looking for a cave or barn...
2008-05-27 20:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all you want to do is go with the herd
2008-05-27 20:38:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes, I sold in May and have been away
2008-05-27 20:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remain "market neutral"
2008-05-27 20:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's OK
2008-05-27 20:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you also lost out on 500 Dow points in both directions too
2008-05-27 20:39:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, that is correct....not perfect
2008-05-27 20:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...is there anything else?
2008-05-27 20:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...nothing is
2008-05-27 20:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it were, it wouldn't be any fun
2008-05-27 20:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at last Friday, looked one way, and we got the other
2008-05-27 20:40:29 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: thoughts on Gold, Oil, other commodities?
2008-05-27 20:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold is in a larger triangle that will probably last until late summer
2008-05-27 20:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oil is in the final month or so of topping
2008-05-27 20:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably by the end of July/beginning August
2008-05-27 20:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the ag's are all over the place because of the wacky mid west weather
2008-05-27 20:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for stocks, watch copper
2008-05-27 20:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interest rates are holding up fine
2008-05-27 20:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: other than that, I don't have a feel here
2008-05-27 20:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no real top or bottom to call
2008-05-27 20:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but oil is getting close now
2008-05-27 20:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone know what the daily limit is on crude these days?
2008-05-27 20:43:13 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: 10
2008-05-27 20:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's when you'll know the top is in - it wll be limit down...resembling gold's big fall in mid March
2008-05-27 20:43:37 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I am waiting for one
2008-05-27 20:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: soon...but the gold offset suggests mid summer
2008-05-27 20:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's been a beautiful to watch play out
2008-05-27 20:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oil is, more than likely, in the area in which gold was in last February
2008-05-27 20:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so give or take a month or two
2008-05-27 20:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: btw - I saw diesel at $5.02 on Sunday
2008-05-27 20:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 4.05/4.15/4.25 across the street from me
2008-05-27 20:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in the 70's
2008-05-27 20:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people rushed out to buy diesel because it was .50 cheaper than 87
2008-05-27 20:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or was that 89?
2008-05-27 20:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't think we had 87 grade back then
2008-05-27 20:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm waiting for odd/even days!
2008-05-27 20:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else
2008-05-27 20:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have a ton of work to do, so I'm going to take off a bit early
2008-05-27 20:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-05-27 20:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2008-05-27 20:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-05-27 20:48:23 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: good night



__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch