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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-05-22 19:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-05-22 19:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-05-22 19:02:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: cold - the temperature that is
2008-05-22 19:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..it's still very windy here - so if we lose power again, you'll know what happened to me
2008-05-22 19:03:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, at least my computer works
2008-05-22 19:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just got the electricity back about 2 hours ago
2008-05-22 19:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fires everywhere - the worst ones are on the coast
2008-05-22 19:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...any questions or comments before we attempt to review the market action?
2008-05-22 19:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: heck...I don't even know what the market did today...let me check
2008-05-22 19:05:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: not much
2008-05-22 19:05:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: DCB
2008-05-22 19:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..this was fully expected, right?
2008-05-22 19:06:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: right
2008-05-22 19:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: magical :-)
2008-05-22 19:06:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: more DCB to come I think
2008-05-22 19:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe
2008-05-22 19:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: depends where we lie with respect to the MCO zero lines
2008-05-22 19:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...sitting right on the NASDAQ volume MCO and NYSE breadth MCO's tonight
2008-05-22 19:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm just looking around...pay no mind
2008-05-22 19:09:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Worried of the wind again
2008-05-22 19:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll know if something else happened to me...I will disappear
2008-05-22 19:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2008-05-22 19:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as was expected yesterday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO is now attempting a technical snapback to or towards its zero line
2008-05-22 19:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone know what crude closed at today?
2008-05-22 19:12:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: down last I saw but don't know close
2008-05-22 19:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I did hear, however, that some numskull on CNBC forecasted 15.00 a gallon fuel very soon
2008-05-22 19:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not in this lifetime...unless we have a war
2008-05-22 19:13:28 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: USO down 2.68
2008-05-22 19:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhh...but what about crude?
2008-05-22 19:14:29 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Not sure how much but down today.
2008-05-22 19:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the chart of USO, it would seem that we just finished a third wave
2008-05-22 19:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice structure
2008-05-22 19:14:57 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: closed 130.80 down 2.36
2008-05-22 19:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the RSI suggests another high to come
2008-05-22 19:15:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: look like 130.97 now......up .16
2008-05-22 19:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://tinyurl.com/65htxv
2008-05-22 19:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: huge volume
2008-05-22 19:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway, with a reading of -11, there's still a bit more room for the CO NYSE breadth MCO to move a little closer to the zero line
2008-05-22 19:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so maybe we're not finished yet as TM has suggested
2008-05-22 19:16:45 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: RSI suggests another high because it made a higher high?
2008-05-22 19:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and I would look for divergence
2008-05-22 19:17:19 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: ty
2008-05-22 19:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 8 day ADX suggests that we're close to trend exhaustion...the 13 day still has a bit more room
2008-05-22 19:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components of the CO MCO
2008-05-22 19:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we see that we have fully meet the objective of the 10% component moving back to its zero line while the 5% component bounced off this same demarcation point
2008-05-22 19:19:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Mid range close NYSE
2008-05-22 19:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, we continue to have a short term sell signal on the CO data
2008-05-22 19:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: inside range day as well
2008-05-22 19:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we don't have a trend here as yet
2008-05-22 19:20:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, means up tomorrow?
2008-05-22 19:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think back on the many times in the past in which this type of bar has a tendency to develop immediately after aggressive moves in the price pattern
2008-05-22 19:20:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: so....
2008-05-22 19:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in a literal sense, having two range bars together basically cancels each other out
2008-05-22 19:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we could continue lower
2008-05-22 19:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...we could just chop around as we did today
2008-05-22 19:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words, the predictive value of todays range is pretty much a wash
2008-05-22 19:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the more important thing right now is that we continue to hold above the previous congestion lows of 2 weeks ago
2008-05-22 19:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we should continue to be on guard for another upside attempt
2008-05-22 19:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, we still have some momentum to work off
2008-05-22 19:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a blip higher today on the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-05-22 19:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not much of a snapback attempt...more in the "over extended and needed a bounce" category
2008-05-22 19:24:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: aka....DCB
2008-05-22 19:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components, we also received our bounce off the zero line on the 10%
2008-05-22 19:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-05-22 19:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be
2008-05-22 19:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but is it?
2008-05-22 19:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many times have we seen this happen over the last 9 months only to be fooled?
2008-05-22 19:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many
2008-05-22 19:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you would have a better handle on this than I since I really wasn't able to watch the action today
2008-05-22 19:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we only know is this
2008-05-22 19:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have both NYSE breadth MCSUM's above their zero lines right now
2008-05-22 19:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is going to keep any kind of trend to downside developing at this time
2008-05-22 19:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if and when we see readings in and around the zero line, then we can look for trend development
2008-05-22 19:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all we have right now is a pause
2008-05-22 19:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with some of the lower component indices showing definitive breakdowns
2008-05-22 19:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would suggest it's only a matter of time in which such trend development might show itself
2008-05-22 19:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why this is a time in which you sit on your hands if you're a buyer, but at the same time, you are looking to take profits where warranted on any open positions
2008-05-22 19:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have time to do this...the market is just not going to fall apart all of a sudden
2008-05-22 19:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from another view point
2008-05-22 19:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: up trends are notorious for sharp and short declines to keep the majority off balance
2008-05-22 19:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having not been able to review the Open 10's yesterday, I, myself, don't really know if the downside risk is low or high right now
2008-05-22 19:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hopefully, though, we will hit this area this evening
2008-05-22 19:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has obliged us with a zero line snapback today
2008-05-22 19:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the components remain in a negative crossover configuration below their zero lines
2008-05-22 19:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I would careful of right now is a ho hum day on Friday, and then a continued attempt by the bears first thing on Tuesday
2008-05-22 19:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and maybe getting all of the damage out of the way by Wednesday of next week
2008-05-22 19:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO is also attempting to reach its zero line
2008-05-22 19:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where this bounce higher is taking place right where we had previous divergent support
2008-05-22 19:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this is a continued uptrend correctional process, we should continue to see this MCO move a bit closer to its zero line, and then retest the low created yesterday
2008-05-22 19:34:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: divergent support of what ? Price?
2008-05-22 19:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zero line snapback on the 10%, and a bounce higher off the zero line on the 5%
2008-05-22 19:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...always
2008-05-22 19:34:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks
2008-05-22 19:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at least in this case
2008-05-22 19:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...we are measuring the trend of money flow directly to price
2008-05-22 19:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this same trend increases, or decreases, this the energy factor that eventually gives us our price objectives
2008-05-22 19:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money is opinion
2008-05-22 19:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which can be emotional, but is usually purposeful
2008-05-22 19:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like shorts covering - if you don't get fresh buying behind it, a trend is not likely to develop
2008-05-22 19:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if selling isn't follow up with more selling, the same outcome would come to pass
2008-05-22 19:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you can throw away the newspaper... turn off the tube
2008-05-22 19:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and just taking a review of breadth plurality, and its TREND, you will generally be far ahead of the crowd
2008-05-22 19:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example...although compliments are nice, it's not me who should get the credit on a correct call...only the market makes this observation
2008-05-22 19:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our job here is to interpret
2008-05-22 19:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so while things looked fine and dandy here last week, the market flipped this convincingly enough where a new idea had to be looked at
2008-05-22 19:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is our job...not to look for reasons why the market is doing this or that, but it's important to just react based on the flow of this same stimulative instrument and ask questions later
2008-05-22 19:41:57 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: fib, after reviewing yesterday's transcript. it looks to me that not crossing the 500 level on the MCSUM is a worrisome sign caused your concern.
2008-05-22 19:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why I don't share personal opinions...just interpretive (and hopefully valuable) ones
2008-05-22 19:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes - the main objective for the bulls is to achieve "escape velocity"
2008-05-22 19:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the old days of the traditional MCO, this level was always around the +500 level
2008-05-22 19:43:02 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: However, after looking back at the data. I see it is somewhat rare for the MCSUM to cross 500. For example, one of the most amazing bull market 1995
2008-05-22 19:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-05-22 19:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this should tell you something else about the stock market
2008-05-22 19:43:50 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: the MCSUM never crossed far above + 500. It first met resistance right about where we are and then curl back, flip and flop the 500 level
2008-05-22 19:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have any thoughts on this?
2008-05-22 19:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: currently? yes
2008-05-22 19:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look over history
2008-05-22 19:44:26 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: one thing I noticed price wise is that right now is the opposite picture of last oct.
2008-05-22 19:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in what respect?
2008-05-22 19:44:52 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: in last oct, small caps was the worst performer, but they held up well in recent correction
2008-05-22 19:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they did...any thoughts on why?
2008-05-22 19:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or a better way to phrase the question
2008-05-22 19:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what would be the one determining factor that would allow the small caps to show better strength between now and last year?
2008-05-22 19:46:24 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: liquidity
2008-05-22 19:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-05-22 19:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: last year...we had an inverted yield curve
2008-05-22 19:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a liquidity breaker
2008-05-22 19:46:51 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: but, you know they did well in 2000 and 2002 as well, but it was still bear market
2008-05-22 19:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so were the secondaries
2008-05-22 19:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what were the stocks that led such charges?
2008-05-22 19:47:54 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: you were referring to which period?
2008-05-22 19:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: were they highly weighted issues which would cause this anomaly?
2008-05-22 19:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...you were looking at 2000/2002?
2008-05-22 19:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what was the NYSE A/D line doing?
2008-05-22 19:48:52 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: it bottomed right around march of 2000, funny
2008-05-22 19:49:02 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: and rose since then
2008-05-22 19:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://tinyurl.com/6zslb4
2008-05-22 19:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: context is everything
2008-05-22 19:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that the A/D data is very slooooooooowwwwww
2008-05-22 19:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so being, its pretty "sure" of itself
2008-05-22 19:50:38 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: yes. What is the context then
2008-05-22 19:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: currently, we are testing a significant level on the NYSE RA A/D line
2008-05-22 19:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when you have such a position...that is...testing all time highs
2008-05-22 19:51:05 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: OK. yes
2008-05-22 19:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's going to be a little give and take in around this same area
2008-05-22 19:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: take the SPX - the price highs of around 1550 were the same levels in which all of the "unwilling" buyers got in in 2000
2008-05-22 19:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: break even territory
2008-05-22 19:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then it becomes a situation of valuation comparisons between now and then
2008-05-22 19:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in money flow...basically the same thing happens
2008-05-22 19:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how much money is actually there in this same comparison
2008-05-22 19:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at the top, liquidity was being drained both times
2008-05-22 19:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we had other areas in which this same liquidity had to fill before it could once again be available for investment
2008-05-22 19:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately for Bear Stearns, it didn't come quick enough
2008-05-22 19:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again, they didn't scream for help either
2008-05-22 19:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the charts
2008-05-22 20:03:52 [Message] doc -> Main Room: OEX Mcsum topping at +250 not good for bull market
2008-05-22 20:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, it's not good for the bulls
2008-05-22 20:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...it's a trend consideration here
2008-05-22 20:04:41 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Bulls have to hope the MCO don't take out the divergent March lows
2008-05-22 20:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as I started to say with Swing, and as many of you already know, the 250 increment points on the MCSUM are very important levels
2008-05-22 20:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..the OEX has already
2008-05-22 20:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more importantly
2008-05-22 20:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bears to actually get excited again, we MUST see the MCO take out the extremes of last June/July
2008-05-22 20:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise...we're still range bound
2008-05-22 20:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but let's look at this logically
2008-05-22 20:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for many weeks/months now, we have seen the market rally without a lot of purpose behind it
2008-05-22 20:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can see this on the various MCSUM's with their choppy behavior higher since last year
2008-05-22 20:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we want to see nice smooth separations in either direction to help verify control
2008-05-22 20:07:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: What has OEX mco taken out already?
2008-05-22 20:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: two very important words: "verify control"
2008-05-22 20:08:06 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I view the March flag as divergent with the Jan lows
2008-05-22 20:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm sorry...I meant only the Dow...
2008-05-22 20:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...
2008-05-22 20:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll have to excuse my scatter brain right now...it's been a tough 72 hours for me
2008-05-22 20:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event
2008-05-22 20:09:07 [Message] doc -> Main Room: so breaking -85 on the OEX mco would bring near term concern and breaking the July 07 low would bring longer term concern
2008-05-22 20:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there were four levels of "work" that needed to be done by the bulls over this same time period
2008-05-22 20:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first was to break above various gap resistance areas
2008-05-22 20:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then the zero line...then the +250 level - as this is the zone in which bear market corrections tend to have their termination point
2008-05-22 20:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the +500 level is the level in which needs to be overcome for the market to finally escape the bearish default of the market
2008-05-22 20:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: actually, a break of the recent MCO lows is our full stop point from adding to any positions
2008-05-22 20:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is where bottoms above bottoms had been violated
2008-05-22 20:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so we become cautious
2008-05-22 20:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we combine this with where this is taking place in relation to the MCSUM itself
2008-05-22 20:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this gives us a more rounded picture on just how important this same break of the rising bottoms actually is on the MCO
2008-05-22 20:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...with that said
2008-05-22 20:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have trend lines to work with here in this same relationship
2008-05-22 20:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a break of this series would indicate enough selling is taking place where the market environment is not only hostile, but it will continue to be for a period of 4-6 weeks
2008-05-22 20:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then...looking at the MCSUM
2008-05-22 20:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we're still above the zero line, we should expect choppy action during this shorter term time frame
2008-05-22 20:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if the MCSUM is below the zero line, a trending price structure will more than likely develop
2008-05-22 20:15:00 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Dave, could you do me the favor of a quick teaching point. Looking at the NDX mco, the March divergent flag is -70 or so. If we break that in the next week or so, would you view that as a serious concern for the near term bullish case or would that still be a great opportunity to buy at an oversold state? I think your comments just now as I typed this answered my question.
2008-05-22 20:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we have both short and intermediate term negative control
2008-05-22 20:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will answer your question with a disclosure first
2008-05-22 20:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to keep in mind that much of what I share here in the room is based solely on the experience I have with the NYSE breadth MCO and MCSUM with the NASDAQ and other indices are still in a learning curve mode
2008-05-22 20:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because there hasn't been enough work in this area to say for sure how each index should react in direct relation to the NYSE data itself
2008-05-22 20:17:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: good points to remember
2008-05-22 20:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example...the MCO and MCSUM work their best magic when using the NYSE since you are taking a primary market of total stocks and applying such analysis to other areas
2008-05-22 20:18:10 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: fib, when you say NYSE you mean composite data, right?
2008-05-22 20:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, always
2008-05-22 20:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the composite has changed...in a way
2008-05-22 20:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in the "old days", there wasn't over 3000 + issues on the exchange
2008-05-22 20:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the Ratio adjusted version was developed by the McClellans
2008-05-22 20:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the RA, we are taking a set number of issues each and every day so that we have consistency over longer periods of time
2008-05-22 20:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because there is so many more issues traded today than in the past
2008-05-22 20:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the rules have also changed in some ways with the traditional, but these same rules and guidelines can be used with the RA since it has this data consistency that the traditional doesn't
2008-05-22 20:21:06 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: what is in the composite, exactly. I was looking at a ticker GLD. It is a gold trust. but it trades at NYSE. Is that part of the composite
2008-05-22 20:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...the fewer and fewer number in the basket of issues in which these tools represent, the more volatility we're going to see in this same data
2008-05-22 20:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite index is every single product that is listed on the NYSE
2008-05-22 20:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some are stocks...some warrants...some closed end funds...some preferred...some ETF's
2008-05-22 20:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it takes into account every issue that is traded that day, and not so much every single product that can or could be traded
2008-05-22 20:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the daily plurality numbers jump around
2008-05-22 20:23:06 [Message] doc -> Main Room: However, sometimes the individual index data can be useful. I remember that the DOW and OEX mco violating its uptrend line around the last day of Dec or the first trading day of Jan this year gave the early warning signs to get out while the NYSE mco stayed stronger till a week later.
2008-05-22 20:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is true
2008-05-22 20:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the rhythm of the MCO's is consistent just as the rhythm of the BPI data is
2008-05-22 20:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...if you have only 16 issues in an index (like the XAU), there is going to be more volatile than, let's say, the Precious Metals data of 72 stocks
2008-05-22 20:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so it goes to reason...we're going to see higher extremes in the Dow than the OEX
2008-05-22 20:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and more in the OEX than the SPX
2008-05-22 20:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and more in SPX than in the NYA
2008-05-22 20:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why our foundational work is with the composite NYSE MCO and MCSUM
2008-05-22 20:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it gives the broadest look at money flow as it would apply to a primary exchange
2008-05-22 20:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so back to Doc's question - the technical premise of measuring the trend of breadth remains the same from index to index
2008-05-22 20:27:20 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: but in quick review, I found back in dec. large caps were the strongest. if they fall, the rest will fall. I am wondering whether or not we can use that as an approach. Since the more data you look at, the more conflict it brings
2008-05-22 20:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, one could see lower lows in the NDX because of it being 100 stocks, but as long as the NASDAQ doesn't confirm this same breakdown, it could just be part of money leaving an area that has seen too much run up prior to this same break
2008-05-22 20:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: should it be respected for what it MAY imply..absolutely
2008-05-22 20:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's always the parents that control the children (at least we hope so)
2008-05-22 20:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...it depends on liquidity
2008-05-22 20:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are those institutions that must always be invested in the market
2008-05-22 20:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we talked about last fall, having liquidity levels shrinking as they were
2008-05-22 20:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that is...the broad market was not moving ahead of the cream stocks, and having to be "in the market"
2008-05-22 20:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first place it will run to is with the value that the cream stocks provide
2008-05-22 20:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however...if there is more than ample liquidity where this same participation can "broaden out", this is when we see the mid caps, and then finally the small caps, can receive the same love as the good looking issues
2008-05-22 20:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to October, and looking at the NYSE RA breadth MCSUM, where did it stall out?
2008-05-22 20:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: was it above or below the magic +500 level?
2008-05-22 20:34:30 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Part of my reason for bringing up the NDX is that it has had such a spectacular run up since mid March and accounts for the Nasdaq run up as well. I find it interesting that the nasdaq cum AD line made or equaled its all time LOW yesterday -- granted its always falling, but in good quality up trends, we do see it rise.
2008-05-22 20:34:31 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: around 440, I think
2008-05-22 20:34:35 [Message] doc -> Main Room: BELOW
2008-05-22 20:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this was the failure point of the "change in trend"
2008-05-22 20:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls never reached "escape velocity"
2008-05-22 20:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...we're ALWAYS in a bear market
2008-05-22 20:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if there isn't enough money - energy - to overcome this default, the market will move in the direction of this same default
2008-05-22 20:36:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: but in good quality up trends, we do see it rise
2008-05-22 20:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh yes...we do
2008-05-22 20:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "quality" is a proper word here
2008-05-22 20:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the quality of the advance, or decline, of the MCSUM is paramount to the eventually direction of price
2008-05-22 20:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: separation of postings et al
2008-05-22 20:37:24 [Message] doc -> Main Room: NAUD works much better here in that respect than NAAD
2008-05-22 20:37:47 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: but it only rose 1 year in the last 10 year which is 2003
2008-05-22 20:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...you will usually see volume plurality move in lock step with price
2008-05-22 20:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, it is with the breadth data that tells us how far reaching this same volume is being dispersed
2008-05-22 20:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is so much information that these tools convey
2008-05-22 20:41:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: speaking of which, the nasdaq VOL mco bounced up off the rising bottoms trendline from the Nov flag which has had several touch points.
2008-05-22 20:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's try this
2008-05-22 20:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have an A/D line which is the difference between daily advancers and decliners
2008-05-22 20:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are two short term EMA's - a 19 day for the short term - and a 39 day for the intermedate term
2008-05-22 20:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO shows you how FAST these two EMA's are either moving towards or away from each other
2008-05-22 20:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM shows you how much distance there is between each one of these same EMA's
2008-05-22 20:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since these EMA's measure a moving average of this same A/D data
2008-05-22 20:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you are actually receiving information on the TREND of the A/D line in two different time contexts
2008-05-22 20:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we are dealing with EMA's, and the math behind them that makes them different from SMA's, you will see developing directions of this same money flow component before prices can actually acknowlede such direction
2008-05-22 20:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all were doing in here is measuring the technical condition of the flow of money
2008-05-22 20:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while knowing that without this information it would be like throwing darts as to understanding true price direction
2008-05-22 20:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't think I'm making myself totally clear here...but let's go on
2008-05-22 20:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the MID breadth MCO, we see that we're getting our snapback to the zero line
2008-05-22 20:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in A/D terms, this would mean that the speed between the 19 day and 39 day EMA's are slowing in their acceleration - as if you were taking your foot off the gas pedal
2008-05-22 20:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: prior to this...the 19 day EMA was moving at a brisk pace back towards the 39 day EMA
2008-05-22 20:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so much so that as the MCO went below the zero line, the 19 day EMA was moving faster to meet with the slowing ascent of the 39 day EMA
2008-05-22 20:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the only way that the 19 day EMA could do this is that the A/D line must have been lower than the previous days reading
2008-05-22 20:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we need to look at the A/D line itself to determine how important this same decline might be
2008-05-22 20:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time
2008-05-22 20:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we look at the MID breadth MCSUM, and keeping in mind that the zero line is where these same EMA's touch, we know that there is a bit of distance between the 19 and 39 day EMA's - with the 19 day above the 39 day
2008-05-22 20:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCO moving below zero, the DISTANCE between these two EMA, in this same bullish crossover, is now narrower than it was previously
2008-05-22 20:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if you think of a standard price chart, and use price to replace the A/D line (price chart with a 1 period ma), you will get the same analytical points that you do with this same data
2008-05-22 20:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only here we are measuring the velocity of this same trend
2008-05-22 20:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm probably confusing everyone...I better move on
2008-05-22 20:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll try again with the SML data
2008-05-22 20:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the SML breadth MCO now near the zero line
2008-05-22 20:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this tells us that, in essence, both EMA's made no headway towards or away from each other
2008-05-22 20:55:59 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I think it is confusing because a positive mco could mean the two ema's are moving closer when the mcsum is negative and farther apart when the mcsum is positive (ie crossover has occurred).
2008-05-22 20:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct doc
2008-05-22 20:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is why we need to look at the MCSUM
2008-05-22 20:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we can determine how important this positive or negative MCO is to the intermediate term time frame
2008-05-22 20:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like the March price bottom
2008-05-22 20:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since that time we have rallied and were only able to get these EMA's back to a positive crossover
2008-05-22 20:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but looking at the price action itself in the longer term context
2008-05-22 20:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many of the indices are still below their 1% trend which is the demarcation point between friendly and hostile price action
2008-05-22 20:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: below the 200 day EMA...negative action - above the 200 day EMA...positive action
2008-05-22 20:59:07 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: 200 day ema 1% A/D, right?
2008-05-22 20:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the shorter term EMA's measure the strength or weakness of this same demarcation point
2008-05-22 20:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-05-22 20:59:27 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: ok
2008-05-22 20:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the SML breadth MCSUM
2008-05-22 20:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now, it has a reading of -30
2008-05-22 21:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what does this tell us about the EMA's?
2008-05-22 21:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: knowing that the zero line is flat acceleration?
2008-05-22 21:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this tells us that the 19 day is having resistance problems moving away from the 39 day
2008-05-22 21:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today...they are back to neutral in relation to each other
2008-05-22 21:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still the 19 day EMA has created distance between it and the 39 day compared to Tuesday (the positive MCSUM)
2008-05-22 21:03:11 [Message] doc -> Main Room: the MID mcsum is finding resistance at the July and Oct highs for now
2008-05-22 21:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...the exact (or nearly so) distance it was between the 19 day and 39 day EMA
2008-05-22 21:04:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-05-22 21:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it wasn't able to gain further acceleration - to pull away - from the 39 day EMA
2008-05-22 21:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like stretching a rubber band, or compressing a coil, not enough "strength" (or energy) to overcome previous this same resistance point
2008-05-22 21:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this sense, this is a problem for the bulls
2008-05-22 21:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because back in October, liquidity was declining
2008-05-22 21:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here in May, liquidity is fluid
2008-05-22 21:06:24 [Message] doc -> Main Room: There are a few interesting developments in the Volume data if you have time, eg the NDX again, and esp the DOW, also OEX and SPX
2008-05-22 21:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if "all that extra liquidity" can do is repeat what was a declining period...there is evidently something else out there where this money is going
2008-05-22 21:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doc...you have an observation or two on the volume data?
2008-05-22 21:08:40 [Message] doc -> Main Room: NDX broke the March divergent lows
2008-05-22 21:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it did
2008-05-22 21:09:21 [Message] doc -> Main Room: spx, oex and dow broke below the april lows
2008-05-22 21:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but keep in mind that there is a slightly different analysis with the volume data than with the breadth data
2008-05-22 21:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - divergent structures aren't as important as it is with breadth
2008-05-22 21:10:22 [Message] doc -> Main Room: is there a reason for that?
2008-05-22 21:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where making new lows, or highs, are more liken to points in which you have exhaustion points
2008-05-22 21:10:48 [Message] doc -> Main Room: or is it just your observation over the years
2008-05-22 21:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...the volume?
2008-05-22 21:11:05 [Message] doc -> Main Room: yes
2008-05-22 21:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...volume is a different character
2008-05-22 21:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like you will see the UD lines match the moves in price
2008-05-22 21:11:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: more climactic than say a breakdown of money flow
2008-05-22 21:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the AD doesn't
2008-05-22 21:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...washouts
2008-05-22 21:11:58 [Message] doc -> Main Room: vs momentum
2008-05-22 21:12:08 [Message] doc -> Main Room: got it
2008-05-22 21:12:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hey dave, how about the open 10's?
2008-05-22 21:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's important here right now is the position of the MCSUM's
2008-05-22 21:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at the volume MCSUM's, some have broken above the +250 mark, and are now falling back to this same level
2008-05-22 21:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the area between the +250 and +500 area is like the neutral zone in this case
2008-05-22 21:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where moving above the +250 level suggests that this may not be a bear market rally
2008-05-22 21:14:01 [Message] doc -> Main Room: So in a bull market, good to buy the deeply negative VOL mco's so long as there is no significant technical breakdown in the breadth data, always with stops, of course.
2008-05-22 21:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where the +500 level is where there is enough money to actually turn the boat around to continue to move in this same direction
2008-05-22 21:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...that's the plan Doc
2008-05-22 21:14:46 [Message] doc -> Main Room: by the way, I think we are seeing the Hurst 40wk low now
2008-05-22 21:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there are other considerations...the position of the MCSUM...both currently and where it came from
2008-05-22 21:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-05-22 21:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's been quite a bit of damage to the wall
2008-05-22 21:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be sealed
2008-05-22 21:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I have no idea from day to day what other people are thinking
2008-05-22 21:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can only go with probability and outcome - everyday is a new adventure
2008-05-22 21:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check out the MID volume MCSUM and were it topped
2008-05-22 21:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fascinating
2008-05-22 21:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's were climactic yesterday
2008-05-22 21:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are now minimally "oversold"
2008-05-22 21:17:19 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Interesting that while some indexes are much higher, the DOW is at the same level as it traded just 4 trading days after the Bear Stearns debacle
2008-05-22 21:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are now neutral
2008-05-22 21:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's part of the "trading range"
2008-05-22 21:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to trade
2008-05-22 21:17:50 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Dave, are you still planning on holding your core position at 75% here
2008-05-22 21:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point...I would be holding
2008-05-22 21:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because my positions would had been with the cream stocks
2008-05-22 21:19:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: MID and NDX have been the place to be, price wise
2008-05-22 21:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is nothing to suggest, as yet, that a trend is beginning to the downside
2008-05-22 21:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, the MID and NDX have had a nice run here
2008-05-22 21:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: different from last October where the NDX had a nice time, but the MID didn't
2008-05-22 21:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the biggest problem child has been the SML and the NASDAQ
2008-05-22 21:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for the bulls, this is probably the "healthy" consolidation point we've been looking for the last 4 weeks
2008-05-22 21:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to get the market in better sync in preparation to trend
2008-05-22 21:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to move out of this trading range
2008-05-22 21:21:11 [Message] doc -> Main Room: if you were looking to get long here, how would you spread it out?
2008-05-22 21:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls...the quicker we can get the VTO's to "oversold", and maintain price stability, the better
2008-05-22 21:21:24 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: except for the DOW, there is no lower low yet on other indexes
2008-05-22 21:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Dow is the publics proxy, isn't it?
2008-05-22 21:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what they use to make their buy and sell decisions
2008-05-22 21:22:22 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: SPX yet to break 1384 to make a lower low. not sure about oex, but definitely not ndx and mid
2008-05-22 21:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to watch the broad market here and how it reacts
2008-05-22 21:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...this is why we are on hold
2008-05-22 21:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO on some indices suggest that these same levels will be violated
2008-05-22 21:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we have to determine is by how much
2008-05-22 21:23:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave would a 3 to 1 positive breadth day or a 3 to 1 negative breadth day tomorrow change the picture?
2008-05-22 21:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.01
2008-05-22 21:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably not
2008-05-22 21:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that with the MCO measuring EMA's, it's going to take a tremendous amount of energy to move back and above the previous MCO tops now
2008-05-22 21:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and wouldn't take much in negative breadth plurality to drive the MCO lower
2008-05-22 21:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at today
2008-05-22 21:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: about 400 to the good on the NYSE, and only small blips higher to show for it
2008-05-22 21:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have a whole long string of positive numbers to be chopped off
2008-05-22 21:25:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so if it would take a tremendous amount of energy to move above the tops and not take much to drive the mco lower why stay at 75% long?
2008-05-22 21:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for the bulls, the best thing to happen here would be a range on the MCO between zero and -35 or -40
2008-05-22 21:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dave - because we don't have confirmed technical breakdown as measured by the MCSUM
2008-05-22 21:26:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i see
2008-05-22 21:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only the probability based on the odds
2008-05-22 21:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not just possible...it's probable
2008-05-22 21:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time
2008-05-22 21:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as shared yesterday
2008-05-22 21:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we hold...but as we started working through the data...we came to the additional conclusion that any technical bounce should be used to unload
2008-05-22 21:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...if I were actually trading right now on the Cores
2008-05-22 21:27:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: is today considered a technical bounce
2008-05-22 21:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if I saw another rally tomorrow...I would start to lighten up
2008-05-22 21:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did the internals start their snapback to zero as suggested yesterday?
2008-05-22 21:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would be your technical bounce...
2008-05-22 21:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too far, too fast
2008-05-22 21:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this were my trading account, I would have different rules here
2008-05-22 21:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but none of what I would do as a trader has any bearing on what the news is
2008-05-22 21:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.01
2008-05-22 21:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.09
2008-05-22 21:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: solid floor
2008-05-22 21:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why I wouldn't be in a rush to unload
2008-05-22 21:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why another day or so of reflex could be anticipated
2008-05-22 21:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2008-05-22 21:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .92
2008-05-22 21:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll call that neutral
2008-05-22 21:31:35 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: the way they sold the leaders concerns me a bit though
2008-05-22 21:32:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they woodshedded aapl, rimm, bidu, and pumped msft, intc, and csco, to make up for it
2008-05-22 21:32:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: chips, msft, intc, csco
2008-05-22 21:32:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and away from the front runners
2008-05-22 21:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and going to?
2008-05-22 21:32:43 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: seems to be in health care and utility
2008-05-22 21:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-05-22 21:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which are?
2008-05-22 21:33:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: aapl, rimm, goog, bidu, etc...
2008-05-22 21:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: defensive issues
2008-05-22 21:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the defensive issues are being bought
2008-05-22 21:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: evidently big money is looking for a rest
2008-05-22 21:34:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: are oils defensive?, they were down
2008-05-22 21:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could it be that money is moving from one area of valuation to another?
2008-05-22 21:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oils have been moving higher for quite a while now
2008-05-22 21:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and are NEVER defensive
2008-05-22 21:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they only move higher during expansions
2008-05-22 21:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: commodities only move higher on expansions
2008-05-22 21:35:32 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: out performers today Airlines (+2.62%), Banks (+1.16%) and Biotech (+1.10%)
2008-05-22 21:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though this expansion may not be here in the US but elsewhere
2008-05-22 21:35:41 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: :-)
2008-05-22 21:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and all three of the out performers have been tossed in the garbage in the last couple of days too
2008-05-22 21:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not surprising
2008-05-22 21:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .75
2008-05-22 21:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.00
2008-05-22 21:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: technically "oversold"
2008-05-22 21:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...
2008-05-22 21:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I guess the best thing to do right now
2008-05-22 21:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is...
2008-05-22 21:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have a nice weekend
2008-05-22 21:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-05-22 21:36:59 [Message] doc -> Main Room: lol
2008-05-22 21:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sit on your hands...bull or bear
2008-05-22 21:37:27 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: short the next rally into early June
2008-05-22 21:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although a continuation of a reflex rally is the better play for tomorrow, the lack of snapback today is suspect to a potential downside surprise on Friday
2008-05-22 21:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be Dennis
2008-05-22 21:37:47 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I am not doing anything here
2008-05-22 21:37:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Sit the hands..... Next Chat?
2008-05-22 21:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we've been bitten so many times in the last couple of months...
2008-05-22 21:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: next chat is Tuesday
2008-05-22 21:38:27 [Message] jkw -> Main Room: Thank you Dave......
2008-05-22 21:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I hope I made some sense tonight...I seemed to be all over the place
2008-05-22 21:38:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks, good holiday all
2008-05-22 21:38:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thank you dave, have a great holiday weekend
2008-05-22 21:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this isn't easy
2008-05-22 21:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-05-22 21:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ron...you there?
2008-05-22 21:39:06 [Message] ron1 -> Main Room: I need to digest this chat tonight to up my learning curve!
2008-05-22 21:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you are!
2008-05-22 21:39:14 [Message] ron1 -> Main Room: gold?
2008-05-22 21:39:21 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: Have a nice weekend. Dave and everybody.
2008-05-22 21:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you see the updated gold count?
2008-05-22 21:39:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: can you post link to updated gold count?
2008-05-22 21:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...as of last Friday - one moment
2008-05-22 21:39:50 [Message] ron1 -> Main Room: no, but I will check it out! many thanks, Dave
2008-05-22 21:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/elliottgold051608.gif
2008-05-22 21:40:17 [Message] ron1 -> Main Room: I had eye surgery on Monday
2008-05-22 21:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bummer...you OK?
2008-05-22 21:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or did you do Lasik?
2008-05-22 21:40:40 [Message] ron1 -> Main Room: doing better, but still in recovery stage
2008-05-22 21:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...you have a nice long weekend to rest...best
2008-05-22 21:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm getting out of here...I have a lot of catch up work to do
2008-05-22 21:41:36 [Message] ron1 -> Main Room: for everyone, have a good holiday
2008-05-22 21:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend, and we'll talk on Tuesday
2008-05-22 21:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



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"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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