All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,532
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-05-21 19:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-05-21 19:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-05-21 19:00:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Grrr
2008-05-21 19:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ya think so?
2008-05-21 19:01:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That is Bear for fine, thank you
2008-05-21 19:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how's your health, Mr. Bear?
2008-05-21 19:02:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Darn oil companies keep raising oil prices...........
2008-05-21 19:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seems you've had a nice slumber
2008-05-21 19:02:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hi dave
2008-05-21 19:03:04 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: I am fine, and yourself?
2008-05-21 19:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yea...we'll have to take them out and tar and feather them!
2008-05-21 19:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm a bit rushed...my apologies for yesterday
2008-05-21 19:03:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, that what Congress said too
2008-05-21 19:03:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, interesting observation is that oil was up 5 bucks today and almost every oil stock was down
2008-05-21 19:04:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: something is afoot with oil prices
2008-05-21 19:04:09 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: They lowered their stock prices while raising the oil price
2008-05-21 19:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means that sometimes an equity is just that...an equity
2008-05-21 19:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm smelling the same thing Dave
2008-05-21 19:04:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: from my experience, which is not as much experienced as Dave's, is that stocks front run the underlying commodity, and when that happens, commodities are coming down
2008-05-21 19:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a read a tidbit on the consumer that suggested that people are cutting back on their food purchases but continuing to buy petrol
2008-05-21 19:05:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Those Congressional hearing are a joke
2008-05-21 19:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it was nice that those being in the hot seat finally spoke up today and gave the Congress a bit of their own medicine
2008-05-21 19:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fun, fun, fun!
2008-05-21 19:06:22 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: I think people are cutting back. SUV fires are up. ; )....question is does our cutting back a little make a bean of difference with china subsidizing prices
2008-05-21 19:06:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, ya know what i took as the most interesting, was that this big hedge fund guy said that instruments that allow speculators to buy oil (like uso) have created as much demand as china
2008-05-21 19:07:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i smell some congressional bills coming out to take the buying power out of the speculators pockets
2008-05-21 19:08:15 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: fwiw, $WTIC has not experienced a weekly candle below the 34wk ema since spring 2007
2008-05-21 19:08:30 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: not even a candle wick below
2008-05-21 19:09:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: I'm also curious about oil in respects to i cannot find one person on t.v., print, etc... that thinks there is even a remote chance that oil will have any significant pullback.........
2008-05-21 19:09:46 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: TGC, an oil and gas name closed today 31% above its prior 52wk high
2008-05-21 19:09:48 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: that would suggest when it breaks it breaks very hard. re uso fund
2008-05-21 19:10:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What is unclear to me is if the politicians are as stupid as their questions imply, or if they just think the American people are that stupid?
2008-05-21 19:11:03 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: they can be stupid and so can the American people...after all...think of how they got their jobs. : )
2008-05-21 19:11:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Good point!!
2008-05-21 19:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice to see you guys are fired up
2008-05-21 19:12:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: smokin!
2008-05-21 19:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be what many others are thinking as well
2008-05-21 19:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and isn't it interesting that the presidential candidates haven't said one word on the subject
2008-05-21 19:12:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: also see another thing with oil, check out ssn, fpp, bdco, mxc, pdo, all penny oil stocks moving with reckless abandon, smells like techs in march of '00, except this time with oil
2008-05-21 19:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although
2008-05-21 19:13:06 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: PDO is not a penny oil stock
2008-05-21 19:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I read today in passing that the House passed a piece of paper saying they want to sue OPEC!
2008-05-21 19:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too funny
2008-05-21 19:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we have discussed before
2008-05-21 19:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all that Congress has to do is look in the mirror as far as the culprit in all of this
2008-05-21 19:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments??
2008-05-21 19:14:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How about using my tax dollars and congressional mandates to subsidize massive inflation via corn ethanol? All they while enriching a handful of citizens.
2008-05-21 19:14:17 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: is the rally over..odds?
2008-05-21 19:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a good question...the MCSUM's should gives us some insight there
2008-05-21 19:14:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Back to stock market......good idea
2008-05-21 19:14:54 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: sue OPEC a day after they refuse to drill anwr
2008-05-21 19:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-05-21 19:15:05 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: funny if not tragic
2008-05-21 19:15:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: More tragic
2008-05-21 19:15:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: but I digress
2008-05-21 19:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see how "Tiny Url" works in here - http://tinyurl.com/58ok5q
2008-05-21 19:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can everyone see the chart link?
2008-05-21 19:16:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I see a chart
2008-05-21 19:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: should be the AMAD data
2008-05-21 19:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...thank you
2008-05-21 19:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://tinyurl.com/4z2bh4
2008-05-21 19:18:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Grrr
2008-05-21 19:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a good thing on the NAAD...lower lows
2008-05-21 19:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: playing tag here - http://tinyurl.com/4motpg
2008-05-21 19:19:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: May get DCB soon however
2008-05-21 19:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always fascinating how a simple line drawn on a chart can provide so much information
2008-05-21 19:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: note the position of the NAMO and the NYMO after todays action
2008-05-21 19:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...now that we've seen the raw data, lets look at the McClellan's
2008-05-21 19:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO broke below its zero line on Tuesday and continued to unwind today
2008-05-21 19:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today's action has also moved the 10% component of the CO NYSE breadth MCO back below its zero line
2008-05-21 19:23:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Think it just went below 0 today on CO
2008-05-21 19:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while at the same time, the 5% component is now testing its zero line
2008-05-21 19:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this zero line test on the components, we should expect a bounce higher on Thursday
2008-05-21 19:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the 5% bouncing higher off zero, and with the 10% component snapping back up to zero
2008-05-21 19:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ah...you are absolutely correct TM...thanks for watching out for me
2008-05-21 19:25:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You are most welcome sir
2008-05-21 19:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: need to slow down...and I haven't seen the data since Friday
2008-05-21 19:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: turning our attention to the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-05-21 19:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we note that with today's move lower in the MCO, we see that the MCSUM has now turned lower just below the magical +250 level
2008-05-21 19:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each one of these 250 increment levels on the MCSUM are important levels of support and resistance as it applies to the actual physics of money flow
2008-05-21 19:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case, and has been noted before, in bear markets, we will usually see resistance points at the +250 level, while in bull markets, we generally see support levels of around the -250 level
2008-05-21 19:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so to have this "turn of events" taking place at this time
2008-05-21 19:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: along with having the MCO above its zero line for what would be deemed usual and customary
2008-05-21 19:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this does put us on yellow alert for an impending correctional process to take place
2008-05-21 19:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if not an all out resumption of the previous declining trend
2008-05-21 19:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what will be important then is the position of the other MCSUM's at this time...so onward we go
2008-05-21 19:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved lower today
2008-05-21 19:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and also took out the little dip low we saw generated in mid April in the process
2008-05-21 19:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that there is now enough building negative energy to move prices in the opposite direction
2008-05-21 19:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving down to the components and we see that unlike the CO data, the 10% component here has yet to cross below its zero line
2008-05-21 19:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and would be due for a technical bounce in around this same line of neutrality
2008-05-21 19:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving up to the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-05-21 19:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the point in which there is enough energy to achieve escape velocity, the +500 level, is finding some technical resistance by having moved lower today
2008-05-21 19:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...2 for 2
2008-05-21 19:33:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Close to Oct top on the MCSUM.....is that what you mean?
2008-05-21 19:33:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 2 for 2?
2008-05-21 19:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the CO, we're finding resistance at what would be the area in which a hostile market would exist
2008-05-21 19:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while with the composite MCSUM, we're also finding initial resistance at a point in which would need to be overcome to establish a intermediate term trending price structure
2008-05-21 19:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would also mean that this October top is as important as it was over the last couple of weeks
2008-05-21 19:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing really changes...
2008-05-21 19:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...having moved below he mid April lows today on the NYSE breadth MCO
2008-05-21 19:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this also provides us with confirmed bear divergence when compared with the recent price action
2008-05-21 19:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's more bothersome as a chartist is the reversal bar we had on Monday
2008-05-21 19:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...I made mention to someone on Monday morning that I didn't like the way the market opened higher...it smelled...especially after OPEX
2008-05-21 19:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in the old days
2008-05-21 19:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something like this as a tape reader screamed distribution
2008-05-21 19:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so far...we have weakened enough now where we can no longer be buyers of the market
2008-05-21 19:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time, we can't really go short either with the MCSUM's just reviewed still nicely above their zero lines
2008-05-21 19:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so with the components suggesting a bounce near term
2008-05-21 19:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if one were to look for an entry point based on this, one would wait for the reflex rally and then one could probe...maybe tomorrow
2008-05-21 19:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example...shorting those issues that have been lagging during the price advance from the March lows
2008-05-21 19:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but shying away from those who have either led or participated in this same advance until the MCSUM's are closer to their zero lines
2008-05-21 19:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see what else is going on
2008-05-21 19:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other thing to consider here is the usual technical expectation of a snapback to or towards the zero line of the MCO's themselves
2008-05-21 19:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of what we should see during any kind of reflex here will be measured by the Open 10
2008-05-21 19:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll get to that later on
2008-05-21 19:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also powered lower today
2008-05-21 19:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still remains above its April spike lows
2008-05-21 19:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both of the components of this MCO are below their zero lines...so a confirmed sell signal here
2008-05-21 19:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while with the CO, it only suggests correction
2008-05-21 19:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as well as the composite NYSE
2008-05-21 19:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2008-05-21 19:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we shouldn't be too surprised that we have a better read of direction based on the fact that this MCSUM is still below its zero line
2008-05-21 19:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we have been shying away from this group of secondary issues during this larger advance from the March lows and putting any capital into the NYSE as it should firm better on any further deterioration in the market in general
2008-05-21 19:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ouch..the NDX breadth MCO was slammed lower today and is now testing its divergent lows of March
2008-05-21 19:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without the help of this upper crust of stocks, it's a pretty good bet that this maybe a good area to execute a market short - such as the QQQQ
2008-05-21 19:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it also tells us another thing
2008-05-21 19:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although liquidity levels may be ample, its still not enough to offset "something else" that is draining this same liquidity
2008-05-21 19:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case, it could be the price of crude which acts as a tax
2008-05-21 19:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...this is an important change of events compared with what we were left with last Thursday
2008-05-21 19:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth components
2008-05-21 19:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here too we see that the 10% is below its zero line, while the 5% is slightly below this same level
2008-05-21 19:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would then suggest that a near term bounce as well
2008-05-21 19:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially with the NDX breadth MCO falling apart as it has...a zero line snapback would be the next technical expectation
2008-05-21 19:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this area...if I were holding anything in this area, this snapback would be an opportunity to even out positions
2008-05-21 19:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words...take a profit where warranted
2008-05-21 19:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX price chart
2008-05-21 19:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also see that we closed today at a point in which previous support was seen before the last move higher
2008-05-21 19:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here too, this would suggest at least a bounce
2008-05-21 19:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...
2008-05-21 19:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have MCSUM problems now
2008-05-21 19:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can also see on the SPX breadth MCSUM that we were turned away right at the +250 level
2008-05-21 19:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today as well
2008-05-21 19:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seems the back of the uptrend has been broken here
2008-05-21 19:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX MCO components also have a familiar configuration to them where some sort of bounce is indicated near term
2008-05-21 19:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...holiday weekend coming up
2008-05-21 19:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't like the timing here
2008-05-21 19:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things in which I think we talked about last Thursday was the way the MCO moved higher and was up against horizontal resistance
2008-05-21 19:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where either one or two things were probably happening
2008-05-21 19:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of which is that we needed to see good follow through to the upside to reinforce the trend
2008-05-21 19:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...
2008-05-21 19:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the spike higher was the point in which all of the "unwilling" buyers came into the market
2008-05-21 19:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Friday was very sloppy
2008-05-21 19:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and Monday...well, it just didn't have the stamina to continue moving in this same direction
2008-05-21 19:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this became our first warning shot
2008-05-21 19:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Tuesday's PPI didn't help matters where much of the move was made of emotion selling
2008-05-21 19:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, did anyone really think that wholesale pricing was going to be flat with the way gas prices have been soaring over the last month?
2008-05-21 19:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "bull trap"
2008-05-21 19:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event
2008-05-21 19:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seeing the first several MCSUM's finding resistance at levels that needed to be overcome to be called "in the clear" is a real problem short term
2008-05-21 19:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same situation with the OEX data
2008-05-21 19:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and turning lower in and around the +250 level here too
2008-05-21 19:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...the high caps really took it on the chin today
2008-05-21 20:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...I was noticing today, up until lunchtime, that A/D plurality was actually flat to positive with the Dow down 100 points
2008-05-21 20:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then things just fell apart later on
2008-05-21 20:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the Dow breadth MCO...well, we took out the divergent March lows today
2008-05-21 20:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this now cancels any upside price objectives given
2008-05-21 20:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bear divergence in place
2008-05-21 20:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the components suggest a bounce near term to unload
2008-05-21 20:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a good day today for the bulls
2008-05-21 20:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's also bothersome
2008-05-21 20:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that this is taking place right after the NYAD composite and ratio adjusted lines were up against their declining tops lines as of Friday's close
2008-05-21 20:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...I'm seeing technical breakdowns all over the place Hiker
2008-05-21 20:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so now our focus changes
2008-05-21 20:04:25 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I agree with whatever Hiker said. What did he say?
2008-05-21 20:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: he just asked if there was a sell signal
2008-05-21 20:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the internals are confirming this by structure, but not all out as yet
2008-05-21 20:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it still could be a correction
2008-05-21 20:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but MY intuition suggests otherwise
2008-05-21 20:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: kidding aside
2008-05-21 20:05:42 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: I think it's a correction
2008-05-21 20:06:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Like a C wave, it scares the s..t out of you.
2008-05-21 20:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having many of the MCSUM's finding resistance at what were important points in the bigger scheme of things is a big caution sign
2008-05-21 20:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe DD
2008-05-21 20:06:34 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Hmmm..what is it you said about C waves?
2008-05-21 20:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the price charts, you can make a good case for a "B" wave rally
2008-05-21 20:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know...I say alot of things!
2008-05-21 20:07:05 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: You're the one who taught me, don't back peddle now!
2008-05-21 20:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the thing about "C" waves
2008-05-21 20:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are actually "third waves" of counter trend
2008-05-21 20:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so they will tend to be highly emotional events...climactic in every shape, manner, and form
2008-05-21 20:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be sure...having the price of energy move up 7% in a week is difficult to overcome
2008-05-21 20:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then you have AMR today
2008-05-21 20:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (silly people)
2008-05-21 20:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: show of hands...how many are going to take a plane ride when they charge you for your bags?
2008-05-21 20:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just another example of an incompetent management
2008-05-21 20:09:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Actually I think they always did charge, just didn't say it that way
2008-05-21 20:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...they are now going to charge $15 for your FIRST bag
2008-05-21 20:10:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will only bring a second bag then
2008-05-21 20:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they will charge you $25 for that one...better to bring the first bag!
2008-05-21 20:11:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k, good deal then
2008-05-21 20:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a tough situation
2008-05-21 20:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it costs more to run a company
2008-05-21 20:11:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Actually, if something does not change fast, all airlines will be BK
2008-05-21 20:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you decide to raise fees to balance things out
2008-05-21 20:11:57 [Message] here i am -> Main Room: ack...overhead bins are going to be murder
2008-05-21 20:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then you don't get any business, or it falls off, and you're in a real pickle
2008-05-21 20:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not if you're going on a cruise or a vacation - you need more than one bag
2008-05-21 20:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: business travelers are probably OK since they usually bring a carry on
2008-05-21 20:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you're vacationing...you can't drive because it's too expensive
2008-05-21 20:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can't fly because it's outrageous to
2008-05-21 20:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're left with the train
2008-05-21 20:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and Americans have a problem with train travel...but that could change
2008-05-21 20:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we will all adjust
2008-05-21 20:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're free to do so
2008-05-21 20:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far...
2008-05-21 20:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving to the SML breadth data, and the MCSUM here tells the story
2008-05-21 20:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: finding resistance right at the zero line
2008-05-21 20:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where one side is about to take control
2008-05-21 20:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks like the Hurst folks might get what they're looking for
2008-05-21 20:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and maybe more?!?!
2008-05-21 20:15:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think bears may have already taken the SML control
2008-05-21 20:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TM breadth MCO also moved lower today
2008-05-21 20:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the components here suggest a near term bounce, as well as, corrective activity
2008-05-21 20:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take a quick look at the sectors
2008-05-21 20:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...this was not a good day for the bulls
2008-05-21 20:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: upside objectives on the XLY are now canceled
2008-05-21 20:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is now looking like bear market activity here
2008-05-21 20:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can see this in the XLY MCO
2008-05-21 20:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice how the pattern remained, by in large, above its zero line for a little over a month
2008-05-21 20:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then capped the range with a spike above the high levels seen
2008-05-21 20:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is something that happens during bear market rallies...the last of the shorts covering
2008-05-21 20:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: leaving little else to keep the engine going
2008-05-21 20:20:00 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So this would be like an initiation thrust in reverse?
2008-05-21 20:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLP breadth MCO is just plain ugly
2008-05-21 20:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pretty much
2008-05-21 20:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be like an airplane moving straight up and stalling
2008-05-21 20:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then falling just as quickly back to earth
2008-05-21 20:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...something of the nature of the shuttle not being able to "throttle up" (if you catch my drift)
2008-05-21 20:21:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: the old hammerhead stall...
2008-05-21 20:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-05-21 20:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLP breadth MCSUM just looks worn out and tired
2008-05-21 20:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you have to think to yourself...
2008-05-21 20:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why are the basics of living (staples) having such a tough time making ends meet
2008-05-21 20:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this were a defensive play, where's the beef?
2008-05-21 20:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as a technician, or a fundamentalist for that matter, why would staples be having such a tough time of it?
2008-05-21 20:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people cutting back on discretionary is one thing
2008-05-21 20:24:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: people need money to buy staples
2008-05-21 20:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: true
2008-05-21 20:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but soap?
2008-05-21 20:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: toothpaste?
2008-05-21 20:24:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: so maybe buy a little less or move down brands
2008-05-21 20:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...that would fit with what Walmart is seeing
2008-05-21 20:24:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: buy the generic toothpaste?
2008-05-21 20:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was over at Sam's Club the other day and people were buying a lot of bulk there
2008-05-21 20:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially in areas in which have been in the news as far as shortages are concerned
2008-05-21 20:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rice...beans...that kind of thing
2008-05-21 20:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...Sam's now has a limit of how much rice you can buy
2008-05-21 20:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nasty reversal bar on the XLE today
2008-05-21 20:26:41 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms structure still in place though
2008-05-21 20:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probable bear divergence in place on the XLE breadth MCO
2008-05-21 20:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the XLE breadth MCSUM still highly "overbought", it's going to take some time before we see any real price decay here
2008-05-21 20:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, we can't rule out some sort of reversal here...maybe one of the "island" kind
2008-05-21 20:29:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: We are on the island now. Hmmmm
2008-05-21 20:33:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Did we lose Fib?
2008-05-21 20:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: folks...we are having a wind storm here and we've lost power...I'm on back up now
2008-05-21 20:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I'm afraid I'm going to have to cut things short
2008-05-21 20:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm really sorry...
2008-05-21 20:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I'm sure you're getting the message of the data...we'll review it again tomorrow
2008-05-21 20:38:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: have time to look at vol oscillators?
2008-05-21 20:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't...I'm on back up
2008-05-21 20:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: power going in and out
2008-05-21 20:38:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k, thanks
2008-05-21 20:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can do so on your own
2008-05-21 20:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have a good day...be back tomorrow
2008-05-21 20:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch