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Posts: 5,093
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-05-20 16:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-05-20 16:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-05-20 16:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-05-20 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then let's get DP up and get going
2014-05-20 16:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back toward the zero line on Monday
2014-05-20 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved back lower today
2014-05-20 16:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving us near term bull divergence with the NYA price pattern
2014-05-20 16:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of the NYSE CO breadth MCO components are also below their zero line
2014-05-20 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a technical sell signal there
2014-05-20 16:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM continues to unwind to the downside
2014-05-20 16:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to what should be a challenge of its zero line sometime next week
2014-05-20 16:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2014-05-20 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that next Monday is a holiday
2014-05-20 16:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could be looking at this zero line challenge a week from today
2014-05-20 16:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-05-20 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we see that we had a failure on the zero line snapback
2014-05-20 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also pulled up short from making a new low today
2014-05-20 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have near term bull divergence here as well
2014-05-20 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price support right now is at the 10,500 level on the NYA
2014-05-20 16:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only 42 points away
2014-05-20 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NYSE Composite components
2014-05-20 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to note that both remain nicely above their zero line
2014-05-20 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's of the NYAD line continue to rise
2014-05-20 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they're continuing to rise
2014-05-20 16:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than the A/D line itself is either rising..or minimally speaking...moving sideways at this time
2014-05-20 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2014-05-20 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have just today moved down and through the +750 level
2014-05-20 16:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with horizontal support coming in at around the +700 level seen on the chart
2014-05-20 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point
2014-05-20 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the NYSE is concerned
2014-05-20 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see corrective activity with a rising bias
2014-05-20 16:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although it took two Fed Governors today to change that bias today [smile]
2014-05-20 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ
2014-05-20 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the daily price pattern remains congested
2014-05-20 16:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it moves into the apex of a 1 month triangle configuration
2014-05-20 16:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2014-05-20 16:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO continues to support a pattern of bottoms above bottoms
2014-05-20 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: count now up to 5
2014-05-20 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we have a smaller series of tops beneath tops...4 in all
2014-05-20 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this marketplace is very compressed right now
2014-05-20 16:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so which ever direction we eventually break we will have a very big move in the Composite index
2014-05-20 16:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-05-20 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if history is any indication here
2014-05-20 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCO having now spent the better part of 2 months under its zero line
2014-05-20 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds here suggest that it might be time for the buyers to take control of the action
2014-05-20 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now minimally "oversold"
2014-05-20 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have already had one ledge and one fishhook to the declining pattern
2014-05-20 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little in the way of effort of even snapping back to or towards the MCSUM zero line
2014-05-20 16:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the negative side here
2014-05-20 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the NASDAQ breadth MCO components remain well entrenched below their zero line
2014-05-20 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to take quite a concentrated effort by the bulls to really make a difference here
2014-05-20 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since there's no money in trying to lead off of what the market MAY do..
2014-05-20 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably better to remain neutral for now and wait for that confirmation signal before we get too excited here for the longs
2014-05-20 16:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-05-20 16:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to be very choppy
2014-05-20 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO pattern staying a greater majority of time above its zero line unlike that of the composite
2014-05-20 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: component wise
2014-05-20 16:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ 10% and 5% Trends both remain above their zero lines
2014-05-20 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, when taken together, we remain in a corrective sequence
2014-05-20 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2014-05-20 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the pattern looks rather top heavy right now
2014-05-20 16:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NDX breadth MCO having been above its zero line, by and large, for the last month and one half
2014-05-20 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a trip to the NDX MCSUM zero line is certainly not out of the question before we'll likely see an internal low there
2014-05-20 16:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so better to stay away overall..
2014-05-20 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2014-05-20 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Apple is looking mighty good lately
2014-05-20 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see
2014-05-20 16:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO showed a lot of weakness in its reflex move on Monday
2014-05-20 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's decline still didn't take out last week's low either
2014-05-20 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: component wise
2014-05-20 16:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% remains above its zero line
2014-05-20 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the 39 day EMA of the SPXAD line continues to rise
2014-05-20 16:27:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 19 day EMA is now moving lower and toward the 39 day EMA
2014-05-20 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this narrowing of the distance between these two EMA's
2014-05-20 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: naturally the SPX breadth MCSUM is moving lower as the gap between these same EMA's is narrowed
2014-05-20 16:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2014-05-20 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the mid April lows in the SPX breadth MCSUM are taken out
2014-05-20 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to look for a high level consolidation for prices
2014-05-20 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or like I touched upon over the weekend
2014-05-20 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as time continues to move forward
2014-05-20 16:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this sideways movement we've seen this year is probably just a larger "pause to refresh" after the double digit gains we saw in the markets last year
2014-05-20 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with prices holding up as well as they have
2014-05-20 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is actually setting up a very strong platform from which prices will eventually use as their launching point for the next phase higher in the longer term price pattern structure
2014-05-20 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we usually see as far as timing in these instances
2014-05-20 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that correctional pauses will take about 50-62% of the time in which the preceding rally took place to provide technical balance to the structure
2014-05-20 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-05-20 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the rally from November 2012 to March of this year was 16 months
2014-05-20 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the correction could last at least 8 months
2014-05-20 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would put us into the end of this year
2014-05-20 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cycle wise though
2014-05-20 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "presidential cycle" suggests that we're due to rally hard into the end of the year starting in the next two less the expected 20 week nesting of the Hurst cycle due at the end of this month
2014-05-20 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lucky for us though
2014-05-20 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll let the market dictate the timing of these kinds of events
2014-05-20 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or as the case might be...non events
2014-05-20 16:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-05-20 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we were not able to fully snapback up to the zero line on Monday
2014-05-20 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there wasn't enough push either by the sellers to create new momentum lows
2014-05-20 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM is about a day or two away from testing the +750 level
2014-05-20 16:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll likely to continue to see great buoyancy in the OEX index itself
2014-05-20 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we look at the price pattern of the OEX itself
2014-05-20 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that it continues to trade right at the levels of the old all time highs
2014-05-20 16:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some might say this is bullish because we're finding support and not failing
2014-05-20 16:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while others might opine that this is bearish because prices can't move past this resistance point of what was considered overpriced levels in the past
2014-05-20 16:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: internally...the bulls remain in control on an intermediate term basis
2014-05-20 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term?
2014-05-20 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there we have more negatives than positives
2014-05-20 16:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough to trade on really
2014-05-20 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at least we have a framework on what our options might be moving forward
2014-05-20 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO did move to lower lows today
2014-05-20 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking out both of the recent lows made earlier this month
2014-05-20 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a crossover sell signal as well in the Dow breadth MCO components
2014-05-20 16:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our being just a day away from challenging the +500 level on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2014-05-20 16:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that our expected rally failure from last week could turn into something more IF the bulls don't come in here and give this basket of stocks a little support over the next day or so
2014-05-20 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also failed to fully snapback to its zero line on Monday
2014-05-20 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here again
2014-05-20 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't have enough conviction by the sellers to break to new lows either
2014-05-20 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a crossover sell in effect here on the MID
2014-05-20 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should help in pushing the MID breadth MCSUM down and through the +250 level as soon as Wednesday
2014-05-20 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...will horizontal support hold?
2014-05-20 16:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to wait another day for that answer
2014-05-20 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-05-20 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that there was a lot of buying in this basket of issues on Monday
2014-05-20 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so that we were able to move back and above the MCO zero line
2014-05-20 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the price pattern did find initial pattern support at the 625 level on Friday
2014-05-20 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's still front and center that this index may be attempting to build a foundational low here as we reviewed last week
2014-05-20 16:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got a full snapback to the TM breadth MCO zero line on Monday
2014-05-20 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the rest of the market
2014-05-20 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it couldn't build on this reflex today
2014-05-20 16:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain negative on a short term trending basis
2014-05-20 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-05-20 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see "summer like" trading
2014-05-20 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a lot of indecisive behavior going on here
2014-05-20 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the surface it would appear that the secondaries and small caps are attempting to build a low
2014-05-20 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the large caps continue to show signs of fatigue
2014-05-20 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and likely in need of an extended rest period
2014-05-20 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we talked about last week
2014-05-20 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it now appears that our next chance of a tradable low has been pushed out to next month now
2014-05-20 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2014-05-20 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all the cross currents going on
2014-05-20 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll likely see continued choppy behavior
2014-05-20 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in some cases
2014-05-20 16:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a compressional release at any time
2014-05-20 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the 3 day holiday coming this weekend
2014-05-20 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that decision may not come until early next week now
2014-05-20 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume McClellan's are doing
2014-05-20 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2014-05-20 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we start off with some bad news for the bulls
2014-05-20 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that the CO NYSE volume MCO did actually move to lower lows today
2014-05-20 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this now opens the door for the NYA price structure to actually challenge the lows of mid April
2014-05-20 16:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2014-05-20 16:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will be important on a test like this is that the MCO structure, in relation to the early April spike lows, remains divergent during this process
2014-05-20 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows as well in the NYSE Composite volume MCO
2014-05-20 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in both of the NYSE cases
2014-05-20 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now take a more defensive posture towards stocks as long as this current condition exists
2014-05-20 16:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or like the BETS has been saying for the last two weeks
2014-05-20 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be "holding with protective bearish stops (below market)"
2014-05-20 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, in this case
2014-05-20 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the breadth and volume MCSUM's still above their zero lines
2014-05-20 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any continued choppy behavior will be that of sector rotation while we remain indecisive overall
2014-05-20 16:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM should be much lower than it currently is if the position of the 19 and 39 day EMA's of the NAUD line are correct
2014-05-20 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry to say...I haven't had the time as yet to follow up on this problem
2014-05-20 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is on my "to do list" this week
2014-05-20 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll call the NASDAQ and NDX volume data as being negative for now
2014-05-20 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gee...I wonder how high the TRIN readings were today?
2014-05-20 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there's been some technical damage here in the volume MCO's so far
2014-05-20 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO remains above its recent lows
2014-05-20 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is the OEX volume MCO
2014-05-20 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a trip to 1850 will be on the table short term for the SPX
2014-05-20 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX probably testing 820
2014-05-20 17:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of selling in the Dow today
2014-05-20 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at the components for a moment
2014-05-20 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had climactic behavior in the Dow today
2014-05-20 17:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with only 3 issues up
2014-05-20 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of downside volume in Cisco
2014-05-20 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the heaviest traded on the Dow
2014-05-20 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID and SML volume MCO's are holding above recent lows
2014-05-20 17:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the bears would love to see here
2014-05-20 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for a break below the 617 level in the SML
2014-05-20 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and along with a break of MCO support in both breadth and volume
2014-05-20 17:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that should take place
2014-05-20 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would push out any opportunity for a trading low out to August
2014-05-20 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, in this sense, the next couple of days are as important as it was in mid April
2014-05-20 17:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the bulls did belly up when they needed to
2014-05-20 17:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a rally back up to the top of the trading range took place
2014-05-20 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO wasn't able to move past its zero line either
2014-05-20 17:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2014-05-20 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to go down and through the TM volume MCSUM as soon as Wednesday
2014-05-20 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know what can and does happen when the balance of control moves from one side to the other
2014-05-20 17:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-05-20 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with volume showing continuing decay on an intermediate term basis
2014-05-20 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are running out of time in keeping control of the longer term pattern
2014-05-20 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2014-05-20 17:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have yet to show real control of their own either
2014-05-20 17:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the market winding up tighter and tighter
2014-05-20 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this energy is finally released
2014-05-20 17:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a nice couple of days of movement in the direction of the break
2014-05-20 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with many of the MCSUM's now near or below their zero lines
2014-05-20 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have also relieved the trading imbalance that has kept prices from building on their 18 month advance
2014-05-20 17:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-05-20 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing climactic still on the CVI's
2014-05-20 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the STVO's are now moving to minimally "oversold"
2014-05-20 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the VTO's remain neutral overall
2014-05-20 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah ha!
2014-05-20 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.08
2014-05-20 17:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a technical buy signal there
2014-05-20 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.14
2014-05-20 17:15:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it is divergent with May 15th, as well
2014-05-20 17:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving deeper into "oversold" territory
2014-05-20 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will help keep prices buoyant
2014-05-20 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10?
2014-05-20 17:15:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: trin
2014-05-20 17:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got it
2014-05-20 17:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to tell you
2014-05-20 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA 1 year price chart on the TRIN
2014-05-20 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I see nothing indicating a top here
2014-05-20 17:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reinforces my thought process that this will likely be looked back as being a pause (blip) on the longer term charts
2014-05-20 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's do note, however, the island reversal on the NYA...which can be seen on the close up 21 day chart
2014-05-20 17:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the volume
2014-05-20 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume does NOT confirm the pattern as being important
2014-05-20 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like a rally failure
2014-05-20 17:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would want to see expanding volume on the gap lower from the top if it were an important reversal point in the price pattern structure
2014-05-20 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it actually contracted
2014-05-20 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's also note that the 21 day DMA of the TRIN has also moved back into "oversold" territory today
2014-05-20 17:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here...using these analytical tool...we have a high imbalance of sells short term
2014-05-20 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's worth at least a bounce...if not more
2014-05-20 17:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.01
2014-05-20 17:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2014-05-20 17:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minimally "oversold" there
2014-05-20 17:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.35
2014-05-20 17:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.10
2014-05-20 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-05-20 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to short here
2014-05-20 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's hard to go long
2014-05-20 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2014-05-20 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time to sit on our hands
2014-05-20 17:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wait for more information
2014-05-20 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s likely to be choppy for the rest of the week
2014-05-20 17:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the BETS starts to break down
2014-05-20 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let me take a quick look
2014-05-20 17:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TICK is moving to the upside again
2014-05-20 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +30
2014-05-20 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no change
2014-05-20 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as the TICK makes new highs
2014-05-20 17:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like the Bond CEF A/D line
2014-05-20 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it promises us new highs in equities in the not too distant future
2014-05-20 17:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't be too surprised that we find out on Thursday that today was another one of those textural lows in the pause
2014-05-20 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-05-20 17:26:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: With the divergent trin and MCO-I wouldn't short this on a bet...
2014-05-20 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, there's no reason to stick your neck out here
2014-05-20 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside
2014-05-20 17:26:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2014-05-20 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just checked the full stochastic on the MCO's
2014-05-20 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both moved higher today as the MCO's moved lower
2014-05-20 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's really up to the sellers to break that divergence
2014-05-20 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we could see another whipsaw higher in the MCO
2014-05-20 17:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: futures are flat
2014-05-20 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they've been setting the tone only after Europe has opened this past week
2014-05-20 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll wait for that
2014-05-20 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's also watch sentiment here
2014-05-20 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more "crash" and "blood in the streets" we see
2014-05-20 17:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're probably at another turning point
2014-05-20 17:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-05-20 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-05-20 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2014-05-20 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll hope to see if the market is going to give anything juicy to work with on Thursday
2014-05-20 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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